| | No 2 | April to May 2007

RUSSIA | CHECHNYA | Trends in Conflict and Cooperation

The inauguration of the new President of the Chechen Republic, , on 5 April became a nota- ble event in the political life of Chechnya. By 10 April the new government was appointed as prescribed by law. The closest ally of Kadyrov, Odes Baisultanov, was appointed acting prime-minister. These events did not make the news as this scenario has been clear since the candidacy of 30-year old Kadyrov was proposed by V. Putin and endorsed by the republic’s parliament. Insignificant changes have been made in the government structure. The number of vice- premiers has been reduced from five to three and a committee on IDPs headed by Adam Alkhanov was disbanded. The key political tendency of the current period is the strengthening of President Kadyrov’s personal power. The president also appears to have firmly taken a course towards the full integration of Chechnya into Russia’s admin- istrative structure. It is important to note, however, that cases where republican leaders find themselves in confronta- tion with officials delegated from Moscow have become more frequent lately. On 4 May some members of govern- ment and parliamentarians of Chechnya appealed to President Kadyrov asking to abolish the Operational Search Bu- reau 2 (OSB-2) located in . The deputy of the Chechen parliament, Ibragim Khultygov, and the first deputy prime-minister, Adam Delimkhanov, accused the servicemen of OSB-2 of perpetrating illegal interrogations, arbitrary arrests and torturing suspects. They have cautioned that “illegal activities of OSB-2 may result in outbursts of mass protests by the population.” No official decisions were made but President Kadyrov supported the appeal. On 16 May a Chechen ombudsman, Nurdi Nukhazhiev, accused federal prosecutor, Valery Kuznetsov, of “criminal inaction in pro- tecting the rights of the local population.”

The process of pacification in Chechnya continues, although slowly and with some set-backs. Country stability remains relative stable as you can see on the graph. Secret caches of weapons are systematically being uncovered and destroyed. In the first quarter of 2007, 140 members of illegal armed groups Country Stability, Conflictive and Cooperative Events were arrested, 27 were killed, and over 100 fighters surrendered. According to law enforcement bodies, they solved 1,251 crimes during this period (20% more than during the same period last year). 127 small arms have been withdrawn from illegal circulation, 40,000 munitions, 653 shells and mines, 338 hand grenades, 19 self-made bombs and over 100 kg of explosives. Armed clashes with illegal armed groups continued and therefore conflictive events remain on a relatively high level. In April and May there were several cases of firefights in Nozhai-Yurtovsky, Shatoysky and Vedensky districts that lead to casualties among the servicemen of the federal forces. 20 servicemen were killed on 27 April when during the attempt to block a group of fighters in Shatoysky district a Mi-8 helicopter was shot down. On 7 May, during the liquidation of an armed group near Khituni settlement in Vedensky district, three

policemen were killed and four wounded. Data on the number of members of illegal armed groups continuing the resistance appear to be contradictory. According to the military commissioner of Chechnya Gen. Leonid Krivonos, approximately 300 fighters and their direct supporters are active in Chechnya at present. They operate in small groups of 10-12 men. In 2005 the number of fighters was below 700 and in 2006 it was 400. Other official sources offer a differing assessment of the current num- ber of fighters – up to 800. It is clear, however, that fewer abductions and disappearances occur in Chechnya today. In 2005 approximately 170 were registered as abducted; in 2006 – about 60; and as of the end of May this year – just a few persons went missing. On 4 April, just before the presidential inauguration, one of the most notorious leaders of separatists was liq- uidated, the 35-year-old Suleiman Imurzaev (Khairulla). Khairulla was regarded as a blood vengeance foe of Ramzan Kadyrov since he claimed responsibility for the assassination of Kadyrov’s father, Akhmat Kadyrov. It seems that the operation to liquidate him was timed to coincide with inauguration day. If this is true then it was also aimed at de- monstrating the capacity of Kadyrov’s supporters and their ability to control the situation in the republic.

Chechen society is unequivocally orientated towards a peaceful life. This is apparent by a number of social indicators, e.g. the growth in the number of complaints to authorities demanding a just resolution of current prob- FAST Update | Russia | Chechnya | No 2 | April to May 2007

lems. A number of appeals to the ombudsman of Chechnya have also significantly increased. The strengthening of the president’s personal power in an ethnically homogenous republic inspires the belief among the population that the president can help overcome the arbitrariness of officials. This, in turn, contributes to the further strengthening of Kadyrov’s personal authority against the backdrop of a very low level of confidence towards authorities in general. The level of corruption, especially in the judicial system and local self-governance as well as in the entire sys- tem of distributing the targeted federal subsidies, remains very high. There is, however, a transition from corrupt prac- tices in the use of armed violence-based appropriation, which was wide spread during the war, to a comparatively more peaceful way of accumulating wealth, such as extortion by officials. This of course leads to utter frustration and occasional aggression on the part of the population, especially among youths. On 23 May in a radio address, the Mufti of Chechnya, Sultan Mirzaev, spoke about the increase in the cases of young men joining the resistance. This tendency reappears every spring but at present, it looks particularly out of place. The mufti said that “those who went to the mountains [joined the resistance] to oppose the president of Chechnya are not proper Muslims.” According to Mirzaev, approximately 20 men from different settlements in Chechnya joined illegal armed groups. These facts are hard to conceal in Chechnya, although the relatives of fighters prefer to say that their children “went missing.”

The economic system of Chechnya is being actively restored; however, there have been no signs of a break- through so far. According to official statistics, there are approximately 300,000 unemployed out of a population of approximately 1 million. Considering the population structure, the unemployment rate may still be up to 70-80%. At the same time, there is a deficiency in the workforce in mountain districts. Years of war have seriously affected the republic. In Vvedensky district, for example, which occupies 5% of Chechnya’s territory but contains 20% of its pas- tures, there is not a sufficient amount of labor resources to restore the cattle farming. The construction industry is booming in Chechnya. In 2002-2006, 27.7 billion rubles were allocated for the federal targeted development program “Reconstruction of the economy and social sphere of the Chechen Republic.” According to the recent survey by the Accounting Chamber of the Russian Federation, 81.2% of these funds have been spent. The ratio of new housing construction is currently 80% higher than for the same period last year. In the first quarter, 8,000 sq. m. of housing was constructed, not including the restoration of parks, schools, and hospitals. According to official data, 756 blocks of flats are now ready for habitation (1,822,567 sq. m.). Real estate prices in Grozny and its suburbs have risen several times in recent years due to the peace oriented nature of the population. Today a traditional “Soviet” land-plot of 600 sq. m. around Grozny costs from $10,000 to $30,000. A two room apartment in a block of flats is up to $50,000. Just a while ago, these prices were three times lower. At the end of May, it was announced that the disarming of mines on agricultural lands has been completed (over 62 hectares in total have been cleared). The total number of mines and other devices that have been disarmed and destroyed was 412. All the industrial capacities of the railroad system have been fully restored, including railway stations in Grozny and Gudermes, as well as transitory and substations along the line. There are daily trains in operation be- tween: Grozny – Gudermes, Grozny – Khasavyurt and every two days between Grozny – Moscow, Grozny – Mineral- nye Vody, etc. Preparations are underway to route the trains – Moscow and Makhachkala – Moscow via Grozny, as it was before the war. The route Grozny – is about to be extended to Saratov.

Chechnya will continue to move along the path towards the reconstruction of peaceful living conditions. The consolidation of Kadyrov’s power currently contributes to the population overcoming its distrust of authorities and al- lows for effective policy implementation. It leads, however, to a greater administrative control over self-governance bodies by the executive branch of power. The strengthening of Kadyrov’s personal power creates serious systemic threats: the situation in Chechnya, in this regard, becomes similar to what is happening in other “ethnic” republics of Russia’s Northern Caucasus. Unlimited power prerogatives of local presidents lead to the formation of hidden opposi- tions. These leaders will have no difficulty mobilizing masses of the destitute population in a time of crisis. The most serious problems concern the destiny of a younger generation in its vast majority, which is devoid of any meaningful and optimistic prospects.

Contact FAST International is the early warning program of swisspeace, FAST International/FEWER Eurasia covering 25 countries/regions in Africa, Asia and Europe. Based in Country Team: Russia | Chechnya Bern, Switzerland, the program is funded and utilized by an interna- Sonnenbergstrasse 17 tional consortium of development agencies, including the Austrian 3000 Bern 7 Development Agency (ADA), the Canadian International Development Switzerland Agency (CIDA), the Swedish International Development Cooperation [email protected] Agency (Sida) and the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation www.swisspeace.org (SDC).