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Japan Earnings 18 November 2016 Asia Pacific/Japan Equity Research Product Marketing Japan Earnings Research Analysts EARNINGS Product Manager Daisuke Takato 813 4550 9671 Earnings beat consensus; will there be a [email protected] Go Tanaka Trump bump in 2H? 81 3 4550 7266 [email protected] Figure 1: Defensives beat consensus and raised guidance Total Total Cyclical Defensive Financials (ex Marine) Sales -1.8% -1.7% -2.7% -0.4% Surprise OP 4.0% 4.1% 2.3% 5.7% NP 11.4% 14.7% 2.3% 16.1% 20.5% Sales -1.6% -1.5% -2.1% -0.7% Guidance -0.9% -0.7% -2.8% 1.4% Change OP NP -1.3% -0.1% -4.3% 1.6% 0.6% Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse ■ Summary: The Jul–Sep quarter earnings season came in better-than- expected with operating and net profits beating consensus estimates by 4% and 11%, respectively. The surprise came mainly from electric utilities, which benefited from a stronger yen and lower fuel costs. In terms of outlook, overall net profit guidance was cut −1.3% (but more or less unchanged excluding the shippers). The biggest swing factor will likely be the 4% devaluation in the USD/JPY in the past week, which could provide a tailwind in 2H. ■ Second-quarter roundup: Defensives helped offset the weakness in cyclicals, whose earnings were distorted by significant write-downs at Japan's big three shippers. By sector, telecom, tech, autos, and financials also came in stronger than consensus. Overall the number of companies that beat consensus outnumbered misses by a ratio of 3 to 2. ■ Guidance looks even more conservative: Donald Trump's surprise victory in the US presidential election weakened the USD/JPY from ¥105 to ¥109, at a time when many companies were just seen adjusting their full- year FX assumptions to the ¥100–105 range. As this could make new guidance numbers look more conservative we update our FX sensitivity spreadsheet to spot companies that have the biggest potential upside (or downside) to guidance. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 18 November 2016 Table of contents Guidance more or less flat 3 Guidance scenario analysis 4 Guidance sensitivity to USD.....................................................................................5 Guidance sensitivity to EUR.....................................................................................6 Guidance-related charts 7 Guidance revisions (%) ............................................................................................7 Guidance: Revisions (¥mn)......................................................................................8 Guidance: Gap to consensus (%) ............................................................................9 2Q: Beats consensus at both OP and NP 10 Buybacks still on record pace 11 Earnings-related charts 12 2Q: Earnings surprises (%) ....................................................................................12 2Q: Earnings surprises (¥mn) ................................................................................13 2Q: Earnings (YoY %)............................................................................................14 2Q: Earnings (YoY ¥mn) ........................................................................................15 Japan Earnings2 18 November 2016 Guidance more or less flat Overall, Japanese companies' guidance cuts were limited to about −1% at both the OP and NP levels, with defensives faring better than cyclical. The JPY's acute decline versus the USD post Trump's victory should be a boon for exporters in 2H, should the JPY remain at these levels. Our FX strategists forecasts the USD/JPY to be at ¥111 in the next three months and ¥108 over the next year. Figure 2: Guidance cuts outnumbered raises slightly Sales Operating Profit Net Profit No of Mkt Cap (JPY Sector cos tn) % chg ↑ ↓ % chg ↑ ↓ % chg ↑ ↓ Total 468 426,299 -1.6% 34 170 -0.9% 94 92 -1.3% 103 104 Total (ex marine trans) 465 425,450 -1.5% 34 167 -0.7% 94 90 -0.1% 103 101 Cyclical 206 189,346 -2.1% 11 104 -2.8% 41 68 -4.3% 35 75 Electric Appliances 46 51,655 -1.8% 3 23 -4.2% 10 15 -6.5% 11 16 Transportation Equipment 23 49,140 -0.6% 3 8 2.1% 8 7 3.3% 7 9 Chemicals 42 27,568 -2.6% 2 21 -2.3% 8 9 -2.8% 7 10 Machinery 29 19,283 -3.5% 0 15 -8.2% 4 11 -5.0% 3 11 Wholesale Trade 21 15,725 -2.0% 0 10 -1.5% 3 8 7.2% 4 6 Precision Instruments 7 5,894 -1.7% 0 2 -0.7% 1 1 -21.8% 0 2 Iron & Steel 8 4,696 -3.1% 2 3 -10.2% 2 4 -17.5% 0 5 Rubber Products 4 4,253 -0.3% 0 1 -1.3% 0 1 -1.7% 0 1 Nonferrous Metals 8 3,335 -4.5% 0 7 -8.6% 3 3 -12.1% 1 4 Oil & Coal Products 5 2,241 -6.2% 0 3 -11.2% 0 2 -13.6% 0 2 Textiles & Apparel 4 2,207 -3.9% 0 4 -6.4% 1 2 -7.4% 1 2 Mining 2 1,544 2.5% 1 1 9.9% 1 1 35.9% 1 1 Pulp & Paper 4 956 -1.1% 0 3 -4.6% 0 2 -29.8% 0 3 Marine Transportation 3 849 -5.9% 0 3 -369.4% 0 2 -629.7% 0 3 Defensive 191 171,026 -0.7% 21 64 1.4% 50 24 1.6% 51 24 Information & Communication 23 45,239 -0.1% 3 4 1.9% 4 1 1.4% 6 1 Pharmaceutical 22 24,234 -1.5% 5 6 2.3% 7 3 2.9% 8 3 Foods 25 23,064 -1.3% 3 10 1.6% 12 3 2.9% 11 3 Services 21 21,365 0.0% 2 2 -0.2% 3 1 -0.1% 2 1 Land Transportation 23 18,469 -0.6% 3 13 0.4% 6 4 1.2% 8 4 Construction 21 9,595 -0.8% 2 7 8.7% 10 0 9.7% 10 0 Electric Power & Gas 13 7,946 -0.4% 2 4 3.9% 2 1 2.3% 1 0 Other Products 9 7,226 -1.6% 1 4 -7.6% 2 3 3.2% 3 3 Retail Trade 14 4,857 -0.5% 0 4 -1.2% 1 3 -0.6% 1 2 Glass & Ceramics Products 8 3,589 -2.8% 0 5 -2.0% 1 3 -7.4% 0 4 Metal Products 6 2,500 -0.3% 0 1 1.3% 1 0 -0.8% 0 1 Air Transportation 2 2,185 -4.2% 0 2 -9.0% 0 1 -11.4% 0 1 Warehousing & Harbor Transport 3 606 -1.7% 0 1 -3.3% 0 1 -2.1% c 1 Fishery, Agriculture & Forestr 1 152 -2.2% 0 1 22.2% 1 0 22.2% 1 0 Financials 71 65,928 0.6% 17 5 Banks 38 38,719 0.3% 13 4 Real Estate 11 9,899 0.3% 2 2 2.6% 3 0 3.5% 4 0 Insurance 5 7,318 0.0% 0 0 Other Financing Business 10 6,049 -0.5% 0 1 Securities & Commodity Futures 7 3,942 0 0 Note: Number of beat/misses are ones that exceed ±10%. Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse Japan Earnings3 18 November 2016 Guidance scenario analysis The JPY has fluctuated considerably this year, strengthening as much as 20% to ¥100 versus the USD, only to weaken back to the ¥110 handle after the Trump vote. Volatility remains at elevated levels, albeit much more toned down since Brexit. Ironically, we saw many companies adjusting their full-year FX assumptions to ¥100–105 range this earnings season, with 75% of companies we surveyed using a USD exchange rate of ¥105 or below. In Figures 6–9, we show companies in our coverage universe and their USD and EUR sensitivities, as well as the upside/downside to guidance. For more details, please refer to our updated FX sensitivity Excel sheet. Figure 3: The JPY has seen big swings in 2016; volatility has come down since Brexit, but remains elevated 120 16 118 14 116 12 114 112 10 110 8 108 6 106 USDJPY rate 4 104 102 90-day historical volatility 2 (RHS) 100 0 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Source: Bloomberg, Credit Suisse Figure 4: 93% of companies have USD/JPY Figure 5: 79% of companies have EUR/JPY assumptions below the current exchange rate assumptions below the current exchange rate 40 37 37 100% 25 100% 90% 90% 35 93% 20 79% 80% 20 19 80% 28 30 75% # of companies (LHS) 70% 16 # of companies (LHS) 70% % of companies (RHS) 25 % of companies (RHS) 60% 15 60% 20 50% 11 50% 15 14 40% 10 40% 15 7 30% 30% 5 10 7 5 4 4 20% 6 20% 3 5 5 5 2 5 1 1 1 1 10% 2 1 1 1 1 10% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0% 0 0% Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Japan Earnings4 18 November 2016 Guidance sensitivity to USD Figure 6: Guidance to rise at current ¥110 vs. USD As of 11/18/2016 USD sensitivity Guidance change if yen at… Impact of 1 yen Full-year Fiscal Month Profit Type Co's FX As % of Code Company weaker move guidance End (OP, RP, etc.) assumption guidance 100 105 110 115 (JPY mn) (JPY mn) 6967 Shinko Electric Industries 3 OP 105 1,000 4,000 25.0% -125.0% 0.0% 125.0% 250.0% 6976 Taiyo Yuden 3 OP 102 800 10,000 8.0% -16.0% 24.0% 64.0% 104.0% 1963 JGC Corp 3 OP 100 600 -9,500 6.3% 0.0% 31.6% 63.2% 94.7% 6141 DMG Mori Seiki 12 OP 107 320 2,000 16.0% -104.0% -24.0% 56.0% 136.0% 6963 ROHM 3 OP 100 750 14,000 5.4% 0.0% 26.8% 53.6% 80.4% 7211 Mitsubishi Motors 3 OP 103 1,900 -27,600 6.9% -20.7% 13.8% 48.2% 82.6% 6754 Anritsu 3 OP 100 100 2,200 4.5% 0.0% 22.7% 45.5% 68.2% 7012 Kawasaki Heavy Industries 3 OP 102 1,920 34,000 5.6% -11.3% 16.9% 45.2% 73.4% 8050 Seiko Holdings 3 OP 103 300 5,000 6.0% -18.0% 12.0% 42.0% 72.0% 3436 SUMCO 12 OP 104 750 12,500 6.0% -24.0% 6.0% 36.0% 66.0% 4062 IBIDEN 3 OP 100 200 6,000 3.3% 0.0% 16.7% 33.3% 50.0% 7915 Nissha Printing 3 OP 105 450 7,000 6.4% -32.1% 0.0% 32.1% 64.3% 6816 Alpine 3 OP 103 100 2,300 4.3% -13.0% 8.7% 30.4% 52.2% 6857 Advantest 3 OP 100 400 14,500 2.8% 0.0% 13.8% 27.6% 41.4% 5334 NGK Spark Plug 3 OP 100 1,100 42,500 2.6% 0.0% 12.9% 25.9% 38.8% 4041 Nippon Soda 3 OP 100 90 4,000 2.3% 0.0% 11.3% 22.5% 33.8% 6502 Toshiba 3 OP 100 4,000 180,000 2.2% 0.0% 11.1% 22.2% 33.3% 6770 Alps Electric 3 OP 100 960 46,500 2.1% 0.0% 10.3% 20.6% 31.0% 7203 Toyota Motor 3 OP 103 46,000 1,700,000
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