The Journal for Vocational Special Needs Education 3 The Missing Middle:Aligning Education and the Knowledge Economy By Anthony P. Carnevale and Donna M. Desrochers, Educational Testing Service

Introduction formation economy. Countries among the world’s advanced While no one can predict the whose populations have high economies. Currently, about future, today’s economic and levels of education are fertile soil 40% of American adults do not for information-based technol have skills typical of those with demographic realities suggest 2 the opportunities and chal ogy (Romer, 1990). some college, but the fastest job lenges that will face America in Second, increases in a growth will occur in those jobs the years to come. The U.S. country’s overall level of educa in which incumbent workers economy has already undergone tional attainment causes corre currently have skill levels that dramatic changes in the latter sponding increases in their reflect at least some postsecond part of the twentieth century. overall rate of economic growth ary education or training. Look (Topel, 1998; Krueger and ing into the future, there is ev The extension of product and 3 labor markets has expanded Lindahl, 1999). ery reason to believe that the de global competition, and the in But increases in the demand mand for college-educated fusion of technology has been for skilled workers can have vary workers will continue to grow widespread across all sectors of ing effects on individual workers. along with the income divide the economy. Both of these Ratcheted-up skill requirements, between those who have some forces have affected the struc while beneficial for the most edu postsecondary education and ture of jobs and the way we cated and skilled workers, are those who do not. ever more problematic for the The growing importance of work, fueling increases in edu 4 cational attainment and the de least educated and skilled. The education in overall economic mand for skill. United States has increasingly growth and individual opportu The kind of education and turned to workers with at least nity creates two primary eco skill demanded has also some college or postsecondary nomic challenges for education changed. General reasoning, training to fulfill a wide variety reformers. The first is to meet problem-solving, and behavioral of labor-market slots, leaving the need for a greater quantity skills as well as a positive cog the least educated workers with and quality of human capital few opportunities to access necessary to foster overall nitive style are increasingly 5 needed to supplement the nar good-paying jobs. Currently, growth in the new knowledge- row cognitive and occupational almost six in ten jobs are held based economy. The second is skills sought in a more directed by workers with at least some to reduce the growing differ work environment. Access to college, compared with two in ences in family incomes by clos good jobs and earnings in the ten in 1959. Even more stun ing the gap between the nation’s American system are driven by ning is the fact that the wage education-haves and education- the complementarities between premium for college-educated have-nots. these soft skills, general educa workers, compared with high Absent of reforms allowing tion beyond high school, occu school educated workers, has us to produce and distribute pational preparation, and the increased by almost 70% since education cheaper, faster, and resultant access to learning and the early 1980s in spite of the better, we may not be able to af technology on the job.1 fact that the supply of college- ford all the education we need As we begin the twenty-first educated workers has increased to maintain our competitive po century, our ability to produce by 60% over the same period. sition or to reduce the gap in and disseminate education will The increasing divide be earnings between the most and increasingly determine our tween those with skills at the least educated. At a minimum, nation’s economic competitive “some college” level and those greater efficiency will require a ness as we shift from an indus with skills typical of people with stronger alignment between trial to an information economy. high school or less has in curriculum and work require Education facilitates the current creased income dispersion in ments as well as stronger rela transition in two ways: First, the the United States to the point tionships between educational initial stock of education in in where we have surpassed Great institutions and employers. dividual nations determines Britain as the nation with the Strengthening the relation growth potential in the new in widest income differences ship between education and work 4 Volume 25, Number 1, Fall, 2002 requirements begins with a relationships that encourage even with successful reforms. stronger focus on the “missing successful transitions from high But the costs of failure will be middle” in education policy: the school to postsecondary educa even higher. Failure will jeopar years when academic and ap tion and training and from dize our future competitiveness plied learning overlap between school to work are haphazard. in the global economy. We are the completion of basic aca Economic and demographic currently number one in the glo demic preparation and the changes already underway will bal economic race but our me completion of occupational or increase the need to align cur diocre performance on interna professional training.6 These are ricula with work requirements tional assessments of educa the critical years when young and to create stronger relation tional quality suggests that our adults begin to mix educational ships between high schools and preeminent status is living on experiences with their growing colleges, communities, and em borrowed time. Our current independence in families and ployers. The economic and tech edge in global competition is communities, and with their nological forces that fuel the based more on our size and early attachment to the world of demands for access to postsec market-based flexibility and less work and careers. The missing ondary education and training on the quality of our workforce. elements at the critical juncture will only accelerate in the future. In the future as the European between education and careers Demographic trends will bring Union and other global trading are curricula that effectively mix added pressures. As the baby coalitions achieve scale and academics and applied learning boomers with postsecondary learn flexibility and as financial as well as institutional relation education retire over the next capital and technology become ships that create venues for ap twenty years, we will be hard even more footloose, the quality plied learning and successful pressed to produce a sufficient of human capital will become transitions from school to school number of Americans with post the decisive competitive edge in and school to work. secondary education or training global competition. Finally, as For most, the missing to meet our needs. Shortages of retirements and economic middle begins early in high workers with some college-level change increase the demand for school. At this juncture in the skills could increase to more workers with at least some col education pipeline, more ap than 12 million by 2020. lege, income differentials be plied curricula become an effec In addition, we actually may tween the most and least skilled tive complement to abstract aca experience a bottleneck in the will continue to grow, threaten demic pedagogy in deepening transition from secondary to ing the egalitarian base at the knowledge even among college- postsecondary education as the core of our culture. bound students. Yet, most col- smaller “Generation X” gives lege-bound students continue way to a much larger “Genera Where the Jobs Are their studies by moving up in tion Y.” The added costs of pro Early in this country’s history the hierarchy of academic dis viding postsecondary education and, in fact, pretty much ciplines taught in isolated silos for “Generation Y” could reach through our first 200 years, a via abstract methods. At the $19 billion by 2015 (Carnevale job was easy to find—especially same time, general academic and Fry, 2001a). Between now an entry-level low-skilled job. content is missing from many and 2015, we will face a surge Throughout our history, the high school vocational and gen in the number of 18- to 24-year- American dream and the Ameri eral education curricula, creat olds that will force hard fiscal can reality have been that ing barriers to the achievement choices among the diverse mis people could start at the bottom of academic standards as well sions in postsecondary institu and, without much formal edu as barriers to access and suc tions. In addition, there will be cation, work their way to the cess in postsecondary education competition for resources top. Even in the modern indus and training programs. throughout the education pipe trial era beginning in the early Relationships also are miss line. Preparation for college be twentieth century when college ing in the years between the gins in preschool, and increas became a requirement for the completion of basic academic ing access to postsecondary growing numbers of profession competencies and the final es education requires increases in als, getting through high school tablishment of occupational or investment in the quantity and and then working hard and professional credentials. At each quality of education throughout playing by the rules were grade level, applied contexts for the entire Pre-K-16 system. enough to secure good jobs for learning at work and in the com The costs of delivering the most of the rest of us. But in munity are rare. Institutional education we need will be high, the past 40 years, the rules have The Journal for Vocational Special Needs Education 5 changed because the global economy has changed. The concentration of jobs in Figure 1 the United States today is radi cally different than it was in Employment and Education, 1959-2000 1959 (Carnevale and Rose, 1998; Carnevale, 1999). In the P e rc e n t o f to ta l e m p lo y m e n t new economy, the number of M o re th an tw o-th ird s o f w o rk ers in g ro w in g , g o o d- high-paying blue-collar jobs paying oc c u pa tio ns ha v e pos tse c o n d a ry educatio n: available to workers with high 40 school diplomas is shrinking, Office Jobs largely as a result of productiv ity improvements.7 The shares 30 of farm and factory jobs have each declined by at least one- half, while the share of jobs in low-skilled services has re 20 mained relatively stable (see Fig ure 1). And farm and factory jobs have not only lost employ Hospital/ Classroom Jobs ment shares, but have suffered 10 actual job losses. New job creation has been High-Tech Jobs concentrated in “knowledge jobs” rather than production 0 jobs or extraction jobs like farm ing and mining. Tracking the O n ly o n e-th ird o f w o rk ers in th ese d ec lin in g o r low- share of total employment paying oc c u pa tio ns ha v e postse c o n d a r y educ a tion: 40 shows that jobs in hospitals and classrooms have grown sub stantially, but white-collar office employment has grown the 30 most—accounting for almost 40% of all jobs in 2000. The overall number and share of Low-Skilled Services Jobs technology jobs also has grown, 20 but they still do not represent a Factory Jobs large share of all jobs. The changes in the kinds of jobs available and the skills re 10 quired to get them have been dramatic. These days, if the Farm Jobs competition for jobs were a track 0 meet, one might think of enter ing the job market as compet 1959 1969 1979 1989 1995 1997 2000 ing in the pole vault: The bar is Sourc e : A uth o rs ’ Analy s is of 1960 C ensus, very low for entry-level jobs with and C u rren t Popu lation (M a rch 19 70-2 001). low pay; all a person needs is a high school diploma, at most. an associate degree and prefer with an associate degree, certifi The bar is set quite a bit higher ably a bachelor’s degree. cate, or some college has more for jobs in the middle tier of the In 1973, only 28% of prime- than doubled from 12 to 28% of economy that require at least age workers8 had any postsec the workforce—10% hold an as some college and preferably an ondary education (see Figure 2). sociate degree, while 18% have associate degree. And for the Today, 59% of prime-age work a certificate or some college really good jobs, the bar is far ers have attended some type of coursework but not a degree. above one’s head—and the only postsecondary institution. In The proportion of workers with way to vault it is with at least fact, the proportion of workers bachelor’s degrees also has 6 Volume 25, Number 1, Fall, 2002 more than doubled, from 9% in 1973 to 20% in 2000, while Figure 2 graduate degree holders have Distribution of Education in Jobs, 1973 and 2000 increased at a slightly slower pace, increasing from 7 to 11%

Percent of prime-age (30-59) employment. Earnings in 2000 dollars. over the same period. These educational changes Graduate Graduate High School Degree Degree Dropouts result from two kinds of labor Bachelor's $56,300 $68,300 $20,100 Degree market shifts: 1) a shift in job $49,600 7% 11% 9% creation toward occupations 9% High School Bachelor's Dropouts Degree tending to require at least some Some 32% High School $25,200 $51,200 College 12% 20% college; and 2) increasing post- 32% Graduates $39,000 $28,600 secondary skill requirements in 10% 40% all jobs, which used to require Associate Degree 18% $36,500 high school or less. The largest

High School Graduates Some College, share (about 72%) of the in $31,100 no degree crease in postsecondary educa- $35,600 tion requirements comes from 1973 2000 “upskilling”—higher demands Source: Authors’ Analysis of Current Population Survey (March, 1974 & 2001). by employers for jobs that pre- viously did not require any col lege. A significant but smaller Figure 3 share (about 28%) comes from Distribution of Education in Office Jobs, 1973 and 2000 occupational shifts toward jobs that always required postsec Percent of prime-age (30-59) employment. Earnings in 2000 dollars. ondary education.9 Graduate Graduate High School High School Dropouts Degree Degree $23,700 White-Collar Office Jobs $63,500 Dropouts $77,100 $29,600 Bachelor's 4% The greatest increase in jobs has Degree 8% 12% $60,200 15% High School occurred in the nation’s offices, 12% Bachelor's 27% Graduates $31,000 whether situated on downtown Degree 26% $58,700 18% street corners or suburban of Some College 47% 21% fice complexes. Office workers— $43,000 10% managers, accountants, editors, High School Associate Some College, Graduates Degree and marketers among other of $33,000 $38,900 no degree $38,300 fice jobs— are the largest, fast- est-growing, and generally best- 1973 2000 paid group of employees. In Source: Authors’ Analysis of Current Population Survey (March, 1974 & 2001). 2000, there were 53 million white-collar office jobs in the economy, or 39% of all jobs, up Figure 4 from just 30% in 1959. These office jobs tend to pay more than Distribution of Education in Education and Health jobs in other economic sectors, Care Jobs, 1973 and 2000 $44,800, on average, per annum.

Percent of prime-age (30-59) employment. Earnings in 2000 dollars. Office workers are on the

High School Dropouts front lines of the knowledge High School Graduate $15,100 Dropouts economy. They don’t create pro- Graduate Degree Degree $19,300 $61,600 5% $49,900 High School ductivity-enhancing technology 21% 19% Graduates 24% 20% and do not have specific techni $22,400 cal skills, but they are more pro Bachelor's Degree 16% ductive because they are em 31% 24% 14% Some College, $32,500 Bachelor's no degree 13% High School Degree $29,300 powered by the information Graduates $35,700 13% Some College $25,500 technology that has spread $27,800 Associate Degree throughout the workplace. In $32,900 1973, only 38% of office work 1973 2000 ers had some kind of postsec Source: Authors’ Analysis of Current Population Survey (March, 1974 & 2001). ondary education. Today, 69% The Journal for Vocational Special Needs Education 7 had postsecondary education— more than one-half had at least Figure 5 bachelor’s degrees (see Figure 5). Distribution of Education in Technology Jobs, The powerful impact of the new information technology 1973 and 2000 comes from its pervasive use by nontechnical workers and con Percent of prime-age (30-59) employment. Earnings in 2000 dollars. sumers not from employment 1% High School Dropouts High School $31,500 areas in the production and Dropouts Graduate Degree $34,800 Graduate Degree High School Graduates maintenance of the technology $69,500 $71,400 $37,200 (Carnevale, 1999; Lerman, 6% 17% 17% 13% 1998; Freeman and Aspray, Some College, High School Bachelor's 31% no degree 1999). The effects of the infor Degree Graduates 18% $43,200 mation technology at the core of $63,700 25% $43,700 36% the new information economy 15% 21% Bachelor's are consistent with past trends Degree Associate in economic development. For Some College $62,700 Degree $49,000 $43,300 instance, electricity was the core technology in building the ur 1973 2000 ban industrial economy that

Source: Authors’ Analysis of Current Population Survey (March, 1974 & 2001). began in the early twentieth cen tury, but very few of us needed to become electricians. of office workers have some least some higher education. In Low-Wage Services Jobs kind of postsecondary educa 2000, 75% of education and Low-wage services jobs are a tion, while 37% have at least a health-care workers had at least mixed bag. For some they are bachelor’s degree—making office some college—second only to dead-end jobs, but for many work one of the most highly edu technology jobs (see Figure 4). they are transitional jobs that cated job sectors (see Figure 3). Technology Jobs provide entry-level work that Education and Health-Care Since the late 1970s, the share leads to further education or ca Jobs of technology jobs has doubled, reer mobility. Most of these jobs More of us are working in edu but they still only account for are at the bottom of the new cation and health care—jobs as about 7% of all jobs in the earnings and skill hierarchy. sociated with the development economy.10 More and more of us They include jobs for cashiers, and maintenance of human are using technology on the job, retail clerks, stockers, cab driv capital—because the new but it takes fewer of us to make, ers, cleaners, and other occu economy requires more educa maintain, or repair our informa pations that typically pay low tion, the demand for health care tion technology. Growing pro wages and require low skills. continues to rise, especially as ductivity has held the overall The share of low-wage ser the population ages, and pro number of jobs that require vices jobs has not grown since ductivity is not rising as fast in technical education to around Eisenhower was president in the these education and health-care 10 million, out of the total 138 1950s, remaining at about one- jobs as it is in manufacturing. million jobs in the U.S. fifth or about 28 million of the Because of the increased demand economy. However, changing available work opportunities. and slow productivity growth, demands within the technical These jobs are not growing as a since 1959 health care has grown workforce—for instance, the share of all jobs due to low mini from 4 to 8% of all jobs. Over the shift from high-tech crafts work mum wages and no benefit same period and for similar rea ers to computer technicians—do guarantees, we have a lot of sons, education jobs have grown create openings and worker these low-wage services jobs in from 6 to 9% of all jobs. shortages in growing occupa the United States, compared to The health-care and educa tions. While technology jobs other nations that guarantee tion sectors have always been have always required highly high minimum wages and ben one of the most postsecondary educated and skilled employees, efit guarantees for all workers. education intensive in the the demand for these workers The majority of these jobs re economy. Even in 1973, one- has increased. In 1973, 63% of quire high school or less. In half of workers in schools and technology workers had at least 1972, 86% of workers in low- health-care institutions had at some college and by 2000, 86% wage services jobs had only a 8 Volume 25, Number 1, Fall, 2002 shrinking both proportionally and in absolute numbers. Be Figure 6 tween 1959 and 2000, the share of factory jobs fell from 32 to Distribution of Education in Low-Wage Service Jobs, 17% of all jobs. That translates 1973 and 2002 to 20 million fewer factory jobs in 2000 than would have existed Percent of prime-age (30-59) employment. Earnings in 2000 dollars. had the 1959 share of employ 3%Graduate Degree Bachelor's 1% Graduate Degree $42,800 ment continued. Degree $37,000 Bachelor's $35,000 Degree High School Workers who have skills be Some College 4% $37,700 Dropouts yond high school are filling the $30,400 9% $14,900 High School Associate 14% 17% declining number of factory jobs Dropouts Degree 41% 8% $16,000 $24,800 that remain. New technology

Some College, and high-performance work pro 18% 45% no degree 40% cesses enable manufacturers to High School $25,600 High School Graduates Graduates produce more while using fewer, $20,800 $21,300 but more highly skilled, work ers. For instance, since 1960 the 1973 2000 United States has increased real Source: Authors’ Analysis of Current Population Survey (March, 1974 & 2001). manufacturing output by more than $2 billion annually, while cutting by nearly one-half the Figure 7 number of production workers. In addition, because of the Distribution of Education in Factory Jobs, 1973 and 2000 changing technology and the in troduction of flexible high-per- Percent of prime-age (30-59) employment. Earnings in 2000 dollars. formance work processes, the Bachelor's 3% Graduate Degree Bachelor's Degree 2% Graduate Degree factory workers who remained Degree $62,600 $56,100 $63,800 $52,400 Some College needed more skill. 3% Associate High School $43,300 9% 7% Degree Dropouts In 1973, one-half of factory 19% $42,700 8% $23,900 workers were high school drop Some College outs and, by 2000, only about 51% no degree 16% one in five had not completed High School 37% $38,700 45% Graduates high school (see Figure 7). In High School $37,200 Dropouts spite of the increase in college- $29,400 High School Graduates educated workers in factory $31,800 jobs, they are still a minority. In 1973 2000 1973, only 12% of workers on the Source: Authors’ Analysis of Current Population Survey (March, 1974 & 2001). factory floor had any college and, by 2000, that proportion had in high school education or less. tor and will likely move on to creased to more than 36 percent. Today, still nearly 60% of work- better jobs when they complete Education and Wages ers in these jobs do not have any their education. Low wages and postsecondary education (see no benefits are not a long-term Wage trends also suggest an in Figure 6). concern for people such as stu- crease in demand for skilled la These jobs are easy to get dents, immigrants, part-time bor. Among prime-age women, but they don’t pay well and carry workers, retirees, and others earnings at all levels of educa few or no benefits. Among those who do not want or are not ready tion have risen, but the earnings workers with postsecondary for better jobs. At the same time, of those at the top of the educa education who are employed in those stuck in these jobs for the tion ladder have risen the most these types of jobs, many are long-term struggle to meet ba- (see Figure 8). The earnings of students who are working tem- sic living standards. prime-age men with at least a bachelor’s degree also have in porarily until they complete Factory Jobs their education. This is espe creased, but at a slightly slower While low-wage services jobs are cially true for workers below the rate. In contrast, the earnings not growing as a proportion of age of 25 who comprise about of men with some college or less all jobs, frontline factory jobs are 30% of employment in this sec- have seen declines in their in- flation-adjusted earnings. The Journal for Vocational Special Needs Education 9

Figure 8 Earnings Depend Increasingly on Educational Attainment

Earnings of prime-age (30-59 years old) workers in 2000 dollars.

$80,000 $80,000 Graduate Degree

$60,000 Bachelor’s Degree $60,000

Some College/ AA Degree $40,000 $40,000 High School Diploma Failed to Finish $20,000 High School $20,000

All Workers

1959 1979 1998 1959 1979 1998 Male Workers Female Workers

Source: Authors’ Analysis of Current Population Survey (March 1980 &1999) and Public Use Microdata Sample, 1960 Census.

The increase in the wages of quire an associate degree are skilled jobs, those employing college graduates relative to expected to grow the fastest, in workers whose skills are simi high school graduates is the creasing by 32% through 2010, lar to below-average high school most telling sign that the followed by jobs that require a graduates or high school drop economy demands highly skilled bachelor’s degree, growing by 24 outs, are expected to grow workers. As the share of work percent (Hecker, 2001). Apart slower than average, by 13 per ers with postsecondary educa from education requirements, cent. Similarly, employment tion has increased, the wage jobs that require the highest lev projections by education level advantages of college-educated els of assessed cognitive skills correspond to those by skill workers have also continued to also are expected to grow the level, showing that jobs requir increase. For an increase to oc fastest. About six in ten work ing apprenticeship or other cur simultaneously in both the ers already have skills similar to work-based training greater supply and the wages of more- those demonstrated by people than a year’s duration are only skilled workers, the demand for with at least some postsecond expected to grow 8% by 2010. skilled workers must be rising ary education and access to jobs Jobs that require less than a faster than the supply. Further that pay at least $33,400, on year of customized training be more, among workers with the average, per year. Jobs that re yond high school also are ex same credentials, the highest quire skills typically demon pected to grow slower than av earnings go to those with the strated by four-year degree erage at 13 percent. highest assessed skills, suggest holders will likely grow by nearly While not growing as fast as ing that employers are buying 20 percent, while those requir high-skilled jobs, there will still skills, not degrees (Levy and ing skills similar to those with a be a sizable number of job open Murnane, 1992; Levy, 1998). sub-baccalaureate education ings for less skilled workers. But will likely grow by 15 percent because workers in these jobs Where Job Growth Will (see Figure 9). change jobs more often, these Occur Although the most robust jobs are more likely to create Employment shifts experienced job growth will occur within openings through greater job during the latter half of the skilled jobs, more moderate job turnover rather than by new job twentieth century are expected growth and creation will occur creation. Only one-third of total to continue to increase through at the lower end of the educa job openings in less skilled jobs out the decade. Jobs that re tion and skill continuum. Less are a result of new job creation, 10 Volume 25, Number 1, Fall, 2002

Figure 9 The Labor Force Spans All Skill Levels, But Projected Job Growth Favors High Skill Levels

Skill Level Shares of the Labor Force (16-64) by Literacy Level, Percent Growth, Distribution of Jobs, and Average Annual Earnings of Year- round Workers (16-64) Minimal (Dropout) 15% of the Labor Force 13% Job Growth, 2000-2010 10% Share of New Jobs, 2000-2010 12% share of All Jobs in 2010 2000 Earnings: $21,500 Literacy Basic (Below Average 24% of the Labor Force Level H.S. Graduate) 13% Job Growth, 2000-2010 22% Share of New Jobs, 2000-2010 25% Share of All Jobs in 2010 2000 Earnings: $26,900 Competent (Some Post- 35% of the Labor Force secondary) 15% Job Growth, 2000-2010 36% Share of New Jobs, 2000-2010 37% share of All Jobs in 2010 2000 Earnings: $33,400

Advanced/Superior 26% of the Labor Force (Bachelor’s Degree) 19% Job Growth, 2000-2010 31% Share of New Jobs, 2000-2010 26% share of All Jobs in 2010 2000 Earnings: $48,000

Source: Authors’ Analysis of National Adult Literacy Survey, 1992; Current Population Survey, 2001; BLS Employment Projections, 2000-2010. compared to 47% in the high- The Skills Employers ingly important, occupational est-skilled jobs. and professional competencies While more and more work Want are still needed to complement ers need skill on the job, not all As the structure of the U.S. these more general skills. workers need to go to college to economy has shifted, so have prepare for work. About one-half the kinds of skills required. General Skills: of those who terminate their While we can easily quantify Reasoning, Problem- changes in the economy using education with a high school Solving, and Behavioral diploma get training from vari information on education and ous sources, but principally cognitive skill levels, the skill re Skills from their employers (see Figure quirements in modern work Little is known about how to 10). Three-quarters of high places encompass broader, and develop and assess general school dropouts have jobs for often less measurable, general problem solving and behavioral which do not require training. skills (Lynch and Nickell, 2001). skills in students and workers, Overall, roughly 20% of all work The demand for specific voca whic most employers associate ers are in jobs that do not re tional skills has been aug with educational attainment, quire training but a substantial mented with a growing need for especially college-level attain number of those jobs are tran general skills, including reason ment. Educational attainment sitional. Although these less ing abilities, general problem- also is used as a proxy for rea skilled workers may be able to solving skills, and behavioral soning ability. As a result, em find jobs, the almost 40% of the skills. Cognitive styles, such as ployers use education and train current workforce whose skills how workers handle success ing as the standard by which to are similar to workers in low- and failure on the job, also are screen job applicants. paying jobs typically earned no important in determining suc The new applied skill re more than an average of cess on the job. And while gen quirements have emerged, in $26,900 per annum. eral skills are becoming increas part, as a result of the changing The Journal for Vocational Special Needs Education 11 sics do not guarantee quality. Companies that meet quality Figure 10 standards require conscientious employees who are able to take Training AmongHigh School Dropouts and responsibility for the final prod High School Graduates, 2000 uct or service—regardless of their position in the company. Percent of prime-age (30-59) employment. Variety and customization re High 7% - No Training School quire workers who are creative 2% - Informal On-the-j ob Training Dropouts and good at problem solving. (<1% Vocational or Formal Training) (9%) Continuous innovation re

15% - No Training quires a general ability to learn Some and work in groups. Adding nov Postsecondary Terminal Education or 2% - High School Vocational Training High School elty and entertainment value re Training (59%) 3% - Postsecondary Vocation Training Graduates quires creativity. The consumer 4% - Formal Company Training (32%) demand for customization and 8% - Informal On-the-j ob Training variety requires workers with problem-solving skills that em Source: Author’s Analysis of Current Population Survey, 2000, and adaptations from Eck, 1993. phasize the flexible application of reasoning abilities in multi faceted work contexts. To con occupational structure of the as well. The technology itself tinuously improve products and economy. Increasing productiv takes on more of the rote, services, institutions require ity in manufacturing and other manual processing tasks, allow employees up and down the line technology intensive industries ing employees to spend time in to have leadership and learning means fewer workers with spe teracting with each other to ex skills. Successful teamwork and cific technical skills are needed ploit the new technologies ca good customer service require to do the same amount of work. pable of providing higher qual interpersonal and communica Since most of the new positions ity, variety, and speed of opera tion skills. are being created in business tion (Ichniowski, Shaw, and services, education, health care, Prennushi, 1997; Autor, Levy, Positive Cognitive Style and office jobs, fewer technical and Murnane, 2001). The new, fast-paced, and unfor skills and more general skills These new problem-solving giving global economy results in typical of these jobs are re and behavioral skills are re constant change in skills re quired. Broader and more gen quired to create new kinds of quired for specific jobs. Con eral skills also are required be value added in both manufac stant economic and technologi cause of the spread of “high-per- turing and service areas. Unlike cal change also discourages formance work systems” that the old manufacturing-based growth in job tenure and in locate broader responsibilities to economy where productivity— creases the overall rate of job work teams at the point of pro high volume at low cost—was creation and job destruction. duction and service delivery (Of paramount, the new economy The subtlest behavioral asset in fice of Technology Assessment, demands new kinds of value, managing school, work, and life 1990; Dertouzos, Lester, and measured by a complex set of in the constant flux of modern Solow, 1989; Cyert and Mowery, performance standards and times is a positive cognitive style 1987; Hirschorn 1988; Zuboff, workers with broad skills to (Seligman, 1998). 1988; Cohen, Dickens, and meet these standards. These The notion of “positive cog Posen, 2001). kinds of value include quality, nitive style” is more than “self The new business, educa variety, customization, cus esteem” or “the power of posi tion, health care, and office ser tomer focus, speed of innova tive thinking.” “Self-esteem” and vice jobs require higher levels of tion, and the ability to add nov “positive thinking” are internal interpersonal and problem-solv- elty and entertainment to prod attitudes that persist irrespec ing skills because the work en ucts and services. tive of external experiences of tails higher levels of human in For instance, companies success or failure. Cognitive teraction and personalized re that make or sell quality prod styles are the various ways sponses to people’s wants and ucts or deliver quality service people process information needs. These same behavioral need workers with solid aca gained from experience—posi- skills are required in high-tech- demic and occupational prepa tive cognitive styles encourage nology and manufacturing jobs ration. But good academic ba 12 Volume 25, Number 1, Fall, 2002 success and negative styles en cational programs, career acad As change accelerates on the courage failure. The notion of emies, and other applied cur job, employers can no longer “positive cognitive style” argues ricula. For the most part, these take the time to develop talent that the way in which people programs survive as an alterna from the ground up (Cappelli et understand and engage reality tive applied pedagogy to meet al., 1997). As relationships be can encourage successes and statewide academic perfor tween employers and employees discourage failures. From this mance standards and as prepa become less stable and as the perspective, individual choices ration for further postsecondary pace of change accelerates, re are the key to explain otherwise education. Among those who liable occupational credentials differences in human behavior terminate their education with become more important in that cannot be explained by en high school, the half that need matching individual job skills to vironmental or biological fac- training get it primarily from new job requirements. Employ tors.11 Cognitive style helps ex their employers. ers want the most training- plain why some succeed against For most high school stu ready employees, those with the odds and others fail in spite dents, occupational preparation educational and occupational of their advantages. continues or begins after high credentials, and then add com- Cognitive psychologists tend school with enrollment in occu pany-specific training or train to agree that the way people ex pationally oriented programs in ing prompted by changes in plain events to themselves, or degree and non-degree granting work processes or technology their cognitive style, is a key de postsecondary programs. A (Bishop, 1996). terminant of success and fail- much smaller share continues Workers who also have a ure.12 Those with a negative cog their education past the first solid base of general knowledge nitive style tend to see failure as four years of college and gets and current occupational know a result of causes that are “per their occupational or profes how become more portable, manent, pervasive, and per sional credentials in graduate or since their value is internalized sonal.” They tend to discount professional schools. in their individual experience successes as temporary, limited Increases in general educa and credentials and not tied to in scope, and unrelated to per tion requirements on the job is a particular company. An asso sonal merit (Seligman, 1998). the driving force that results in ciate or bachelor’s degree with People with a negative cognitive complementary increases in job- a particular occupational em style tend to be less successful specific certificates, certifica phasis is more likely than a high because they cede control over tions, and customized job train school diploma to ensure these the choices in their lives to their ing. The most highly educated basic transferable skills. circumstances, reducing their get the most initial job training The need for certified occu ability to act and persevere.13 and retraining. In addition, pational skills also is driven by there is an increasing share of the geographic extension of la Occupational and occupations in fields such as bor and product markets. Prod Professional information technology, public uct markets, and to a more lim safety, and health care that sup ited extent service markets, Competencies ports or requires regulated pro have extended their boundaries The general reasoning, problem- ficiency standards (Carnevale from local to regional, from re solving, and behavioral skills, as and Desrochers, 2001). gional to national and, in some well as a positive cognitive style, To some extent the increase cases, from national to global are critical for lifelong learning in the demand for occupational markets. The principal effect of and success in modern labor credentialing derives from the the expanding geography of markets. However, everyone has changing relationships between markets on workers is not to to put an occupational point on employers and employees. increase geographic mobility but his educational pencil. There is These days a career is no longer to raise skill requirements from a general consensus that occu defined by working for one com local to national and, ultimately, pational preparation—or col- pany, but by moving among em world-class standards (Porter, lege-level coursework leading to ployers within an industry or 1998; Kanter, 1997). ward occupational or profes occupation (Neumark, 2000). sional preparation—should be Workers change jobs more of The Demographic Twist gin sometime in high school. A ten, and employers, constantly Although future economic reali small share of students begin to changing form in response to ties favor higher levels of edu receive occupational prepara economic and technological cation and a broader array of tion in high school through vo change, are always looking for skills, a reversal in two new talent. The Journal for Vocational Special Needs Education 13 longstanding demographic and training with them, there most dependent on social secu trends may make it difficult to will be a surge in the number of rity payments for retirement. fulfill these needs. The most 18- to 24-year-olds. But on bal These tend to be the lowest paid powerful of these trends is the ance, the increase in the num and least skilled workers. Fur retirement of the baby boom. ber of 18- to 24-year-olds will ther increases in the labor force The U.S. workforce, whose size be far short of the number of participation of married women has increased by almost 40% youth necessary to replace the by expanding child care assis over the past 20 years, will slow education and experience of the tance to the middle class may its growth by one-half over the retiring baby boomers. More be the best bet for bringing more next several decades, creating a over, the increasing costs of pro skilled workers, but would be growing need for youth with viding postsecondary education extremely expensive (Ellwood, postsecondary education or and training for the surging 2001). Large-scale skill-based training to replace college-edu- Generation Y may limit access immigration policies would be cated retirees (Ellwood, 2001). to skills. The result will be an effective but politically sensitive. For instance, we know that re even more substantial shortage tirements begin aggressively af in skilled workers with at least Meeting Skill Needs: ter age 55, especially for men, some postsecondary education The Missing Middle in and retirement ages have been and training. declining steadily. The only de In addition, the present eco Education Policy bate among labor economists is nomic slowdown may actually Policy goals are well defined in whether they will continue to accelerate these longer-term elementary and higher educa decline or stabilize. We also trends toward shortages of edu tion, but the middle sections in know that by 2020 there will be cated and skilled labor. During the K-16 education pipeline about 46 million baby boomers the 1990-91 recession, compa have become the “missing with at least some college who nies aggressively used the pause middle” in the education policy will be over 55 years of age to restructure production pro dialogue. It is widely agreed that (Carnevale and Fry, 2001b). cesses and to shift toward fewer the road to meeting work-based These boomers are working to workers using more sophisti skill needs starts by ensuring day, but they will age beyond 55 cated technology. These produc- that all students in elementary years from here on out. Over the tivity-enhancing retrenchments education master the basics same period, if we maintain cur require higher skill levels in the upon which more advanced rent attainment rates in post remaining job slots. It is con education and training are secondary education, there will ceivable that the present eco based. In the United States, likely be about 49 million new nomic pause will encourage a there are standards and goals adults with at least some col- further reorganization of pro for elementary education and lege—a net gain of about 3 mil duction and service delivery pro broad agreement that all stu lion (Carnevale and Fry, 2001b). cesses, accelerating the increase dents should meet common If the Bureau of Labor Statistics in demand for skilled labor. standards sometime between projections of a 22% increase in In the face of sharply re the 8th and the 12th year of pub jobs that will require at least duced labor force growth rates lic schooling. It is also widely some college by 2010 continue and possible skill shortages, agreed that the K-12 system through 2020, roughly 15 mil education and training policies should prepare all students for lion new jobs that require col- will have to play the lead role. some kind of postsecondary lege-educated workers will be We know that a plethora of poli education, training, or good created. This far exceeds the cies underlying the social safety jobs. But while there is a policy small net increase expected in net has effects on individuals’ consensus on the need to meet the college-educated popula decisions to work. While high standards sometime prior tion, resulting in a net deficit in changes in social policies might to high school graduation and workers with at least some col increase the size of the labor the value of postsecondary edu lege of about 12 million work force, only expensive and politi cation and training, there is ers by 2020. cally difficult policy changes are much less agreement on cur We also will experience a likely to increase the available riculum appropriate to achieve second demographic reversal as numbers of highly skilled work these goals in the middle years “Generation X” gives way to ers (Ellwood, 2001). that begin in high school and “Generation Y.” As the baby Increasing retirement ages, end with the transition from boom leaves the labor force tak for instance, will sustain labor postsecondary education and ing their experience, education, force participation among those training to work. 14 Volume 25, Number 1, Fall, 2002 At issue is the mix of aca school, and an elite “Advanced The Curriculum demic and applied curriculum Placement” curriculum that cur appropriate in the transition of rently exists in 13,680 high Mismatch years from high school to col schools. In 2001, 845,000 stu The current core secondary cur lege or high school to training dents took 1.4 million AP exams, riculum is organized around and work. This is the nexus, an increase of 10% over the pre discrete disciplines including beginning in the middle years of vious year (College Board, 2001). math, science, English, and lan the K-16 pipeline, where general The educationally disadvan guages. Moreover, the “back-to- education, occupational educa taged are on the low road with basics” spirit of the education re tion, and work begin to over- the steepest uphill climb to meet form movement tends to lap—the terrain covered by the standards. The egalitarian in strengthen the hold of the tradi more highly regulated European stincts in the standards-based tional academic silos on second “dual systems.” education reform movement de ary education. Currently, tran The missing piece in Ameri mand that educationally disad script studies show that in 1998, can education and training vantaged students be held to the 56% of students met the “new policy has gradually come to same standards as other stu basics”14 requirements (excluding light in response to the diverse dents. These are the 11% of the half year of computer science) needs among adolescents and young adults who have no high recommended in A Nation At-Risk, young adults over the last school diploma, and the 37% of compared with only 14% in 1982 twenty years. In general, these students who do not get any (Roey et al., 2001). needs tend to arise in different kind of postsecondary education Our ability to move the ma ways among the most and least or training directly after high jority of high school students educationally advantaged and school (NCES, 2001). Policy- into the most rigorous curricu among the majority of students makers reason correctly that lum is a remarkable achieve caught in the middle of their meeting standards will give ment. Furthermore, the current high school class. these students the threshold academic curriculum produces The “comprehensive” high skill required for better chances the math and verbal reasoning school that provided something at postsecondary education, skills that correlate with success for everybody now focuses on a training, or job opportunities in college and in subsequent ca single set of standards for all after high school. What’s miss reers (Adelman, 1999). In fact, students but fewer educational ing are the compensatory re success in the traditional aca paths to meet those standards. sources and customized cur demic curriculum, especially The general consensus on per ricula and pedagogy that help the math curriculum, is the formance standards has yet to these students learn and enable most powerful predictor of wage produce alternative pedagogies them to meet the high standards advantages from increased post that meet the diverse needs of that provide access to postsec secondary attainment, and im the student population in their ondary education, training, and provements in mathematics young adult years. good jobs. skills account for most of the There are still three educa Further evidence of the growth in wage premium from tional pathways to meet stan missing middle in K-16 policy increased postsecondary educa dards: the high road, the low comes from students who are tional attainment since the early road, and the middle path. The themselves caught in the middle 1980s (Murnane et al., 1995; most advantaged and able stu between the educationally Grogger and Eide, 1995). dents are on the high road to advantaged and the education Starting in the middle years college and graduate education. ally disadvantaged in American of the K-16 pipeline, part of what Few would disagree with the high schools. These students is missing is a curriculum that basic democratic premises that are on the muddy middle path matches up with the diverse are implicit in standards-based to college. They complete high educational and career needs of school reform. But what do we school successfully and go on to young adults. In particular, we do with students on the high college but do not finish. For are still hard at work trying to road who master standards long instance, more than 45% of develop curricula that (1) inte before high school graduation? high school students go on to grate academic competencies They are too young to go off to four-year schools but just less into applied and vocational college. Instead, we bring the than three in five graduate pedagogies, especially in high college curriculum to them in within five years (Horn, 1998; schools; (2) align the content of the form of dual enrollments, Berkner, Cuccaro-Alamin, and the core academic curriculum academically enriched summer McCormick, 1996). that now dominates in second The Journal for Vocational Special Needs Education 15 ary schools with the more ap- requirements in particular. For stract academic pedagogies and plied curricula that now domi instance, the current math cur provide practical learning that nate postsecondary education riculum that emphasizes arith keeps young people interested and training; (3) align academic metic through calculus does and in school. While these curricula more closely to the provide high levels of math pedagogies are still controversial competencies people actually ematical reasoning ability, but and still under construction, the use on the job once they finish does not match up with the emerging consensus view is that their initial education, including math requirements of the vast they should be focused on oc cognitive reasoning abilities and majority of jobs. Even a casual cupational and industry-based “soft skills” such as problem analysis of the distribution of content that ties into the tradi solving, interpersonal skills, and occupations demonstrates that tional academic disciplines. positive cognitive styles that are relatively few of us, less than important in career success. 5%, use geometry, algebra, or What’s At Stake? First, there is a need to in calculus on the job. In spite of If we are unable rise to the chal tegrate academic and applied these realities, in 1998, 75% of lenge of meeting increasing skill curricula. The current math, high school students took geom demands, there will be broad science, and humanities cur etry, 63% took algebra I, 62% and diverse impacts on the U.S. riculums are organized as dis took algebra II, and 18 percent economy that will be both eco crete hierarchies focused almost of high school students took cal nomically and socially costly. A exclusively on preparing stu culus (NCES, 2000). However, stabilization or decline in the dents for the next rung up in the mathematical literacy in labor productivity gains that we have disciplinary sequence. Because markets is an ability to use arith only recently reaped, or a slow they are taught as specialties, metic operations with increasing down in growth, may be the pri they are less accessible to gen independence and in situations mary negative economic im eralists at each successive level of increasing complexity. pacts. The financial benefits of of specialization. And because Does the fact that only 5% a robust economy may also be they are taught abstractly, they of us use mathematics beyond dampened if companies are do not take advantage of applied arithmetic on the job mean that forced to move to off-shore pro pedagogy and are less accessible we should stop teaching alge duction to find skilled workers— to students with an applied ori bra, geometry, trigonometry, American workers will lose out entation and learning style. and calculus in high schools? on job opportunities, foreign Second, the focus on an aca Does the fact that even fewer of workers will spend their dollars demic core curriculum in high us use Shakespeare, world his overseas, and U.S. state, local, school does not provide a tran tory, or French at work mean and federal governments will sition to the more applied focus these studies are a waste of lose corporate and personal tax of postsecondary education and time? Not necessarily, and cer dollars. But if we are able to in training. The majority of stu tainly not until we can do bet crease the skills of American dents step off the disciplinary ter. In the current education workers, we also could increase hierarchy in math, the sciences, curriculum, these higher-level the tax dollars that flow into our English, and the humanities af courses are the means by which financial coffers. ter high school. In postsecond people learn higher level reason Neglecting to raise the ary education, the vast major ing skills. Throwing out the cur achievement of youth will also ity of students avoid math, sci rent curriculum without a su put these new workers at a dis ence, and the humanities for a perior alternative in place would advantage in the labor market. vocational curricula with a fo be like throwing out the baby High school graduates without cus such as business, engineer with the bath water. a solid set of skills are less likely ing, and K-12 teaching.15 While we are striving to meet to have access to technology and Third, it appears that there common academic standards, on-the-job training, both which is a mismatch between the con educators should continue to increase earnings. They also are tent and pedagogy associated explore alternative pedagogies more likely to remain in low- with both academic and applied that mix academic and applied wage, low-opportunity jobs that courses and skill requirements learning to provide students provide few career path options. on the job. The current curricu with the same higher level rea In addition, those high school lum is best at producing general soning abilities conveyed by the students who do not graduate reasoning abilities, but the con current curriculum. The sup with a solid base of skill will tent of academic curriculum port for applied curricula is that have curtailed their options for does not match up well with job they are superior to more ab obtaining additional postsec 16 Volume 25, Number 1, Fall, 2002 ondary education and training Sweden is one of the most liter of Japanese eighth-graders and the wage increases that ac ate countries in the world. If the scored in the top quartile of in company them. They may also distribution of skill in the United ternational benchmarks in stimulate broader social prob States mirrored that of Sweden, math, compared with 28% of lems; particularly continued in a back-of-the-envelope calcula American students. Due to our creases in wage inequality as tion suggests that we could in eighth-grade population being employers pay increasingly high crease GDP by $463 billion and twice as large as Japanese the wage premiums to skilled work reap as much as $162 billion in eighth-grade population, there ers who are in short supply. additional federal, state, and are 970,000 U.S. students in the local tax dollars.17 top international quartile, com Education and pared with 928,000 Japanese Economic Growth Skill and U.S. eighth-graders. The ultimate determinates of International Economic More is not always better. economic growth are labor sup Competitiveness But oftentimes, four pretty good ply, usually measured by hours engineers tackling a business Our ability to produce high lev problem is better than one very worked, labor productivity, els of skill is critical to the over which depends on the amounts good engineer working alone all performance of the American addressing the same issue. of human and physical capital, economy in global competition. and changes in technology and Similarly, four companies in the Although American educational software business competing the organization of work (Blue performance is improving at stone and Harrison, 2000). Edu directly against each other are home, our scores on interna likely to produce better software cation has historically played a tional tests are consistently sub strong role in growth, by improv than a single company. par. And among youth aged 25 A second advantage that al ing human capital. During the to 34, we have quietly dropped postwar years from 1948 to lows us to be the number one to sixth in the world in high economy with a mediocre edu 1973, education accounted for school graduation rates behind 29% of the increase in gross do cational performance is our flex Norway, Japan, Korea, Czech ibility (Bertola, Blau, and Kahn, mestic product (GDP), and eco Republic, and Switzerland nomic innovation accounted for 2001). In the United States, la (OECD, 2001).18 How can we bor markets are flexible, allow 37 percent (Shapiro, 1998; reconcile our mediocre educa Denison, 1984).16 So all totaled, ing employers enormous agility tional standing in the world and in hiring, paying, and allocating the direct and indirect benefits our economic success in the of increases in education ac workers. America’s agility gives high-tech global economy?19 us an edge in the global race counted for more than two- The answer is that we may not thirds of the increase in U.S. because it allows us to make have, on average, the world’s better use of our talent. economic growth. best stock of skills, but we are Targeted studies tend to In Europe and Japan, by pretty good and because of our comparison, access to jobs and confirm the macro data on the size we have more top students. importance of education and pay is highly regulated by skill On average, we may be in certification and seniority. And training in improving productiv the middle of the pack on inter ity growth. Increasing the edu jobs are protected shelters from national tests but, because of economic and technological cation level of workers by one our size, we tend to have more year has been shown to increase change. Unemployed or under high performers than the na employed workers are eligible productivity by 8.5% in manu tions that do better than the facturing and 12.7% in non- for high levels of income assis United States. For instance, our tance, pensions, and benefits. manufacturing industries (Black population is roughly four times and Lynch, 1996). Training af The result is job security, in the size of that of France, Italy, come security, and structural fects productivity as well: one and the United Kingdom, and hour of training can increase rigidity. But European and three times the size of Germany. Japanese education and labor productivity five times as much Our student population is as it impacts wages. Formal em- market systems have a tough only twice as large as the Japa time redesigning jobs or shift ployer-provided training has nese school-age population but been shown to increase produc ing human and machine capi our size advantage still prevails. tal investments in response to tivity by 10 to 19 percent (Bartel, For instance, in the TIMSS data 1989 and 1994; Bishop, 1994). economic and technological on eighth-grade students, the change. In recent years, the eq A better-educated workforce Japanese rank 5th in math and can also have real fiscal impact. uitable but inflexible European we rank 18th. Sixty-four percent and Japanese models have The Journal for Vocational Special Needs Education 17 driven up costs, suppressing job level, in allocating economic op- technology on the job earn creation, and driving up unem portunity is significant in the about 15% more than high ployment. In contrast, the agile United States. Our growing re school dropouts who do not, but American model has boosted job liance on postsecondary educa the earnings premium for col creation and income inequality. tion and training as the thresh lege graduates who use technol America’s flexibility also old for allocating opportunity ogy is nearly twice as high means employers do not need means that poorly educated in (Krueger, 1993; Mishel and to rely on the nation’s home dividuals, rather than employ Bernstein, 1995). Good pay and grown talent. Immigration is a ers or governments, pay the benefits are linked to postsec major source of talent among price of educational inequality. ondary educational attain math and science professionals. Individuals who do not ac ment, achievement, training, For instance, a majority of quire college-level skills are and technology. America’s civil engineers are for more likely to be forced into low- As access to college becomes eign born and more than a third wage and low-benefit jobs, and more important in allocating of all engineers are foreign born. the earnings disadvantage asso economic opportunity, the large In addition, American compa ciated with those jobs has been gaps between youth from high- nies are free to produce offshore rising since the 1970s. The col- and low-socioeconomic status if they cannot find the talent at lege-wage premium—the earn families become a greater threat home at the right prices. ings advantage of college-edu- to upward mobility. Families The problem is that our ad cated workers over high school with the highest incomes are vantages won’t last. We cannot graduates—in 1979 was 36% for likely to be parents with the remain a first-rate economic men and 34% for women. By highest level of educational at power with mediocre human 1997 however, the premium tainment. Parental education capital. All forms of advantages rose to 67 and 72% for men and and income are strong threads are temporary in global econo women, respectively (Mishel, in the complex weave of social mies. The European and Japa Bernstein, and Schmitt, 1999). and economic forces that influ nese versions of highly planned The wage premiums for those ence academic readiness for col economies surged in the 1970s with “some college” have also lege and college enrollments. As but lost out to American flexibil doubled, although they remain a result, many are concerned ity in the 1980s. Eventually, our far below the premiums for four- that access to college, especially competitors will narrow our eco year college graduates. In addi highly selective ones, and career nomic lead as they learn how to tion to the increasing wage pre opportunity are becoming more create their own versions of agil mium over the past 20 years, concentrated among families ity and scale. At that point, the real inflation-adjusted earnings with high incomes and high lev competition will really come of less educated men have ac els of parental education. There down to who has the best hu tually declined over the period. is a further concern that advan man capital; especially in a But those with at least some tages are passed on from one world where people are no education beyond high school— generation to the next, frustrat longer nation bound and tech a year’s worth of courses—can ing the American promise of nology and financial capital ig earn from 5 to 11% more than intergenerational mobility. nore national boundaries as high school graduates. Thus far, the available evi they hop across borders from Workers with the least edu dence on opportunity is mixed. one entrepreneurial opportunity cation are less likely to receive First the good news: educational to the next. training and access to technol performance and college going At some point soon, if we are ogy on the job, which leads to has improved among all income to retain the lead in the global earnings advantages. Training classes and racial and ethnic economic race, we will have to can increase employee wages by groups since the early 1970s, rely on our homegrown human 3 to 11%, with formal training when policy, especially federal capital for our competitive edge. providing higher returns than policy, began funding targeted Eventually, we will have to close informal training (Bishop, 1996; assistance for disadvantaged the education gap between our Mincer, 1988; Altonji and students throughout the educa competition and ourselves. Spletzer, 1991; Loewenstein and tion pipeline. This has contin Spletzer, 1998). Those who re ued in spite of the widening in The Individual Cost of ceive training earn more, on av come distribution. But there is Skill Deficits erage, than more-educated also bad news: the gap in edu The growing importance of workers who do not (Eck, 1993). cational performance and ac skills, especially at the college High school dropouts who use cess to college has not narrowed 18 Volume 25, Number 1, Fall, 2002 in spite of those same policies. sion is the alignment of the edu ings of degreed programs, cer In our work-based society, cation pipeline and labor mar tificates, certifications, and cus failure to give people the knowl ket institutions. tomized training. edge and the skills they need to The curriculum challenge The vision of a system that get and keep good jobs can have lies in the alignment of academic can fill the missing middle in disastrous personal conse and applied curricula in the education policy should be quences. Those with the least middle years of the education judged by standards that mea education are much more likely pipeline where basic academic sure its ability to increase to experience violence, addic development of cognitive skill choices and opportunity for tion, poverty, illness, incarcera begins to overlap with the need both work and learning for stu tion, and other forms of abuse. for more applied forms of learn dents, as well as its ability to And those who can’t get and ing and career choices. The tra satisfy requirements in school keep jobs often drop out of the ditional vocational curricula and on the job. The diversity political system, withdraw from have not been successful in among American students, community life, and in some teaching the core cognitive math workplaces, and communities cases, create alternative econo and verbal competencies, espe requires a variety of alternative mies, cultures, or political struc cially in high schools. The cur paths that mix work and learn tures that are even more dam rent academic curriculum, “the ing integrated by an incremen aging to the mainstream. new basics,” in secondary tal and sequential system of schools represents the state of competency-based standards Conclusion the educational art in produc (Carnevale and Porro, 1994). Providing all youth with suffi ing cognitive reasoning ability, The challenge is to build an cient skill necessary to access but it is organized as a set of integrated system of pathways good jobs that tend to require discrete disciplinary hierarchies with different points of access at least some education or train and is taught in an abstract and exits controlled by ing after high school presents manner that discourages inter posteducation standards. Indi fiscal, curriculum, and institu disciplinary and applied learn viduals should not be allowed to tional challenges. Simply add ing. In addition, the current aca enter or exit a particular path ing years of schooling at both demic curriculum in both sec without certification of qualify ends of the education pipeline ondary and postsecondary insti ing skills and applied competen in order to meet expanding skill tutions does not lend itself eas cies. Every exit from a learning requirements on the job will be ily to teaching problem solving, path should be validated by ac prohibitively expensive. In order behavioral skills, positive cogni credited learning and lead to ei to afford the human capital we tive styles, or occupational com- ther work or continued progress need in the new economy, we petencies—other than the con along another learning path that will have to produce Pre-K-16 tent knowledge necessary for a ultimately makes a four-year education cheaper, faster, and career in teaching one of the college degree accessible better. This will require a more core academic subjects. (Carnevale and Porro, 1994). effective alignment of the Pre-K- Making better sense of the While reforming and align 16 education curriculum to missing middle in education ing education is costly, not meet rising labor market re policy also requires better align implementing these changes is quirements for (1) cognitive rea ment among secondary, post perhaps even more expensive. soning skills, (2) problem-solv- secondary, and employer insti At stake are our economic ing skills, (3) “soft” behavioral tutions. In the American system, competitiveness and our ability skills, (4) positive cognitive the alignment between general to sustain high levels of growth styles, and (5) specific occupa education and occupational and the productivity gains we tional preparation. education and training and jobs have recently recaptured. The Aligning education curricula is market driven. Relationships number of youth coming to labor market requirements is between employers and educa through the education pipeline no small feat. The alignment tional institutions are informal. will not offset impending demo challenge has both horizontal Secondary and postsecondary graphic changes as the baby and vertical dimensions. The institutions are only loosely boom retires, and social policies horizontal dimension focuses on aligned. Secondary schools are show little promise of alleviat the integration of academic and locally controlled and the post ing skill needs. Education is the applied curricula at each grade secondary education and train best bet to help us maintain out level, especially in high school ing system is market driven and competitive edge. At the same and beyond. The vertical dimen increasingly diverse in its offer- time, failure to serve the educa The Journal for Vocational Special Needs Education 19 tionally disadvantaged is a lost Survey. 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The Journal for Vocational Special Needs Education 21 National Center for Education Sta- Part 2: The Problem of Develop­ This paper was prepared for the Of tistics, U.S. Department of Educa­ ment: A Conference of the Insti­ fice of Vocational and Adult Educa tion. (2001). The Condition of Edu tute for the Study of Free Enter­ tion, U.S. Department of Education cation. Washington, DC: U.S. Gov­ prise Systems. Journal of Political pursuant to contract no. ED-99-CO- ernment Printing Office. Economy, 98 (5). 0160. The findings and opinions ex National Center for Education Sta­ Rosenzweig, M.R.(2000). School­ pressed in this paper do not neces tistics, U.S. Department of Edu­ ing, Learning, and Economic cation. (2000). Digest of Education Growth. In Ray Marshall (Ed), sarily reflect the position or policies Statistics. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Back to Shared Prosperity: The of the U.S. Department of Education. Government Printing Office. Growing Inequality of Wealth and This manuscript can be found at http:/ Neisser, U. (Ed). (1998). The Rising Income in America. Armonk, NY: /www.ed.gov/offices/OVAE/HS/ Curve: Long-Term Gains in IQ and M. E. Sharpe. commisspap.html Related Measures. Washington, D.C.: Seligman, M.E.P. (1998). Learned American Psychological Association. Optimism: How to Change Your Endnotes Neumark, D. (2000). Changes in Mind and Your Life. New York: 1 Education, training, and tech­ Job Stability and Job Security: A Pocket Books. nology tend to be sequential and Collective Effort to Untangle, Rec­ Schooler, C. (1998). Environmen­ complementary in producing oncile, and Interpret the Evi­ tal Complexity and the Flynn Ef­ productivity and earnings. The dence. In David Neumark (Ed), On fect. In Ulric Neisser (Ed), The career and earnings advantages the Job: Is Long-Term Employment Rising Curve: Long-Term Gains in of the sequence of academic, oc­ a Thing of the Past. New York: The IQ and Related Measures. Wash­ cupational, and work-based Russell Sage Foundation. ington, D.C.: American Psycho­ learning accumulate rapidly. Office of Technology Assessment. logical Association. Higher levels of formal education U.S. Congress. (1990). Making Shapiro, R.J. (1998). The Eco­ not only increase access to jobs Things Better: Competing in Manu nomic Power of Ideas. In Jerry with training, they also increase facturing. OTA-ITE-443. Wash­ J. Jasinowski (Ed.), The Rising access to technology that ington, D.C.: U.S. Government Tide: The Leading Minds of Busi complements rather than re­ Printing Office. ness and Economics Chart a places skills. More highly edu­ Organization for Economic Co-op- Course Toward Higher Growth cated workers use technologies eration and Development, Centre and Prosperity. New York: John that increase worker autonomy for Educational Research and In­ Wiley & Sons, Inc. and complement skill—for in­ novation. (2001). Education at a Tett, R.P., Jackson, D.N., & stance, desktop computers and Glance: OECD Indicators 2001. Rothstein, M. (1991, Winter). Per­ flexible machine tools. To some www.oecd.org. sonality Measures as Predictors extent, education, training, and Organization for Economic Co-op- of Job Performance: A Meta-Ana- technology can be substitutes as eration and Development, Cen­ lytic Review. Personnel Psychol well as complements for one an­ tre for Educational Research ogy, 44 (4). other. Technology can substitute and Innovation. (1995). Literacy, Tett, R.P., Jackson, D.N., Rothstein, for both education and training Economy, and Society: Results of M., & Reddon, J.R. (1994, by deskilling jobs. Less educated the first International Adult Lit Spring). Meta-Analysis of Person- workers tend o use technology eracy Survey. Ottawa, Canada: ality-Job Performance Relations: that reduces the level of skill re- Statistics Canada. A Reply to Ones, Mount, Barrick, quired—for instance, cash reg­ Porter, M.E. (1998). Clusters and and Hunter. Personnel Psychol isters with pictures of foods on Competition: New Agendas for ogy, 47 (1). keyboards rather than numbers. Companies, Governments, and Topel, R.H. (1997, Spring). Factor Narrow training can substitute Institutions. In On Competition. Proportions and Relative Wages: for broader educational deficien­ Boston: Harvard Business The Supply-Side Determinants of cies, although it does not provide School Press. Wage Inequality. The Journal of longer-term adaptability, espe­ Roey, S., Caldwell, N., Rust, K., Economic Perspectives, 11 (2). cially if narrow tasks are auto­ Blumstein, E., Krenzke, T., Le­ Topel, R.H. (1998). Labor Markets mated or shifted offshore. gum, S., Kuhn, J., & Waksberg, and Economic Growth. Forth­ 2 Comparisons among OECD M. (2001). The High School Tran coming in Orley Ashefelter and countries show that the level of script Study Tabulations: Com David Card (Eds), Handbook of education does not have a sig­ parative Data on Credits Earned Labor Economics. Amsterdam, nificant effect on growth (Krueger and Demographics for 1998, The Netherlands: Elsevier Sci­ and Lindahl, 1999). However, in 1994, 1990, 1987, and 1982 High ence B.V. less developed countries that are School Graduates. NCES 2001­ Zuboff, S. (1988). In the Age of the “in transition,” levels of educa­ 498. U.S. Department of Educa­ Smart Machine: The Future of tion may be a more important de­ tion, National Center for Educa­ Work and Power. New York: terminant because very low lev­ tion Statistics. Washington, D.C.: BasicBooks. els of education stocks make it U.S. Government Printing Office. difficult to implement complex Romer, P.M. (1990, October). En­ growth-inducing technologies dogenous Technological Change, and productivity-enhancing 22 Volume 25, Number 1, Fall, 2002 practices (Rosenzweig, 2000). pursue college coursework but Katz and Autor, 1999; Katz and 3 Krueger and Lindhal (1999) find do not attain a degree.6 We first Murphy, 1992; Murphy and that these returns are “at least heard this phrase in conversa­ Welch, 1993; Goldin and Margo, as much as” the increase in the tion with Hans Meeder, Deputy 1992; Juhn 1999; Levy and individual returns to schooling, Assistant Secretary, Policy and Murnane, 1992; Johnson, 1997; which are about 5 to 15% for Planning, Office of Vocational Topel, 1997; Gottschalk, 1997). each additional year of school­ and Adult Education, the U.S. The literature that emphasizes ing. Department of Education. skill measurement concedes that 4 The notion that skill require­ 6 Trade is another factor that both there has been an increase in ments are growing and that eliminates and creates jobs both skill requirements, although people are becoming more skilled on the production line and some argue the changes are not is a safe bet. The value of knowl­ managerial and professional jobs exceedingly large and have edge has increased inexorably for in manufacturing. Of the 20 mil­ slowed dramatically since 1960 roughly 3,000 years since early lion jobs lost to trade, about 3 (Judy and D’Amico, 1997; Mishel efficiencies in agriculture pro­ million were probably lost to and Teixeira, 1991; Mangum, vided food surpluses that freed trade and the other 17 million 1990; Barton, 2000). The evi­ up human labor for more com­ were lost to productivity im­ dence on upskilling within spe­ plex tasks (McNeil, 1999). In­ provements. Jobs lost to trade cific occupations is mixed with creasing complexity requires tend to be low-skilled low-wage some evidence to support the more formal teaching and learn­ jobs. Jobs gained from trade tend thesis and additional evidence ing. At the same time, daily life to be more highly skilled and that upskilling in some occupa­ and work in environments of highly paid, both in manufactur­ tions is offset by deskilling in growing complexity also enhance ing and in the economy on the others (Cappelli, 1993; Mishel knowledge and reasoning ability whole. The globalization of com­ and Teixeira, 1993). as we learn by doing (Schooler, petition for low-skilled jobs, es­ 10Although there is much discus­ 1998; Greenfield, 1998; Neisser, pecially in manufacturing, holds sion about the importance of 1998). The empirical evidence of down wages of low-skilled work­ technology employment, it is the synergy between social com­ ers. Some estimates suggest that rarely carefully defined. This plexity and new learning ability trade accounts for as much as document defines technology is that the performance on stan­ 30% of the increase in wage dis­ jobs to include only those jobs dardized tests of human reason­ parities since the 1970s. Ulti­ that are heavily science-based ing power has been rising about mately, however, trade affects and/or utilize specialized ma­ three points every decade ever wages more than the number of chinery and equipment. These since testing began early in the jobs. Trade tends to drive down jobs either require at least a 1900s. For instance, the average the earnings of low-skilled labor bachelor’s degree (e.g., engi­ scores for Americans taking the and increase the relative earn­ neers, chemists, architects, com­ Wechsler-Binet or the Stanford ings of skilled workers in manu­ puter system analysts, etc.) or reasoning test has increased by facturing and in the economy on some specialized postsecondary 15 to 25 points since 1918 the whole. education or training (e.g., com­ (Neisser, 1998). In Great Britain, 7 We first heard this phrase in con­ puter programmers, medical and scores on the Raven Progressive versation with Hans Meeder, other technicians, cad-cam op­ Matrices test of abstract reason­ Deputy Assistant Secretary, erators, etc.). Virtually, all work­ ing show that score levels that Policy and Planning, Office of ers today have some contact with included the bottom 90 percent Vocational and Adult Education, technology, especially informa­ of the population born in 1877, the U.S. Department of Educa­ tion technology, but the defini­ include only the bottom 5% of tion. tion of high-technology workers the population born in 1967 8 Prime-age workers include those used in this paper limits their (Flynn, 1998). These increases in aged 30 to 59. number to those with some spe­ basic reasoning ability have oc­ 9 A debate exists over the extent cial expertise, education, and curred in spite of the fact that to which skills and skill require­ training. the highest fertility rates persist ments have increased in the 11This derives from new thinking among the lowest scorers. Al­ economy. Different measures of in cognitive psychology in re­ though the dispersion in the skills—direct measurement, sponse to the failure of behav- scores is not changing, scores wage inequality, and skills iorism—the notion that people are rising at similar rates across gaps—often result in different were purely products of their en- the board. outcomes (see Cappelli, 1993 vironments—and the Freudian 5 The phrase “at least some col­ and 1996 for a review of this lit­ emphasis on deep-seated sexual lege” as well as the term “college­ erature). However, the balance of drives to explain behavior. After educated” includes all those who the literature that examines 1967, with the publication of have had coursework that leads wage inequality and supply and Ulric Neisser’s Cognitive Psychol to two-year or four-year degrees, demand shifts concludes there ogy, psychologists began to ar­ including both those who attain has been an increase in skill re­ gue that human actions could be a degree as well as those who quirements in the economy better understood by examining (Autor, Katz, and Krueger, 1997; The Journal for Vocational Special Needs Education 23 the way people processed infor- 52,000 in the visual and per­ state, and local taxes that would mation, using advances in com­ forming arts; 17,000 in home be paid by these more skilled puter information processing as economics; and 25,000 in pro­ workers. a relevant model. tective services (NCES, 2000). 18Among the 25- to 64-year-old 12Studies on personality also show The same pattern is reinforced population, the United States that some personality traits cor­ in the expansion in applied sub- still has the largest secondary relate with success on the job. baccalaureate associate degrees, education completion rate. For example, “conscientious­ certificates, certifications, and 19Japanese students are among ness” correlates positively with customized training (Carnevale the front-runners in interna­ job performance, the ability to and Desrochers, 2001). Of the tional tests. But the average pur­ learn on the job, and positive 555,000 associate degrees con­ chasing power of American fami­ personnel data such as low ab­ ferred in 1996, 115,000 were lies is 40% greater than the av­ sentee rates. While the relation­ conferred in the liberal arts and erage purchasing power of Japa­ ship between “positive cognitive sciences, general studies, and nese families. In general, mem­ style” and “conscientiousness” is humanities, and only 758 were bers of the European Union out­ not well established, it seems conferred in mathematics perform us on international logical that cognitive styles are (NCES, 2000). tests. But in 1996, the U.S. gross among the mediating forces that 16Of the remainder, 15% was at­ domestic product per capita tow­ determine successful traits like tributed to increases in plant ered over that of the European “conscientiousness.” (For a and equipment, 10% was attrib­ Union nations¾$27,800 versus meta-analysis of the effects of uted to greater economies of $19,300. During the same pe­ “personality dimensions” on job scale, and the final 10 percent riod, U.S. unemployment has performance and learning see was attributed to shifts and more been consistently less than half Barrick and Mount, 1991; Mount efficient use of labor and capital the European level. and Barrick, 1998; Tett, Jack­ (Shapiro, 1998; Denison, 1984). son, and Rothstein, 1991; Tett 17Using data from the Interna­ et al., 1994.) tional Study of Adult Literacy 13The available evidence and old- shows that workers in Sweden fashioned common sense sug­ have the following distribution of gests that the feelings of help­ skills: Level 1 (lowest): 5%; Level lessness that underlie a negative 2: 17%; Level 3: 40%; and Level cognitive style are a learned be­ 4/5 (highest): 38 percent. In con­ havior subject to environmental trast, the distribution of work­ influences (Seligman, 1998). If ers’ skill in the United States is those subjected to persistent much lower: Level 1 (lowest): negative feedback in their inter­ 16%; Level 2: 24%; Level 3: 33%; actions with the world learn to and Level 4/5 (highest): 27 per­ perceive failures as “persistent, cent (OECD, 1995). To estimate pervasive, and personal,” this the increases in GDP and taxes can lead to “learned helpless­ that would occur if we had a skill ness” unless extraordinary com­ distribution similar to Sweden, pensatory support is provided. we first calculated the number 14The New Basics recommended of workers in the United States by the National Commission on in each skill level, and second, Excellence in Education (1983) applied the distribution of skill include four years of English, in Sweden to the total number three years each of mathemat­ of workers in the U.S. to estimate ics, science, and social studies, how many workers would fall in and one-half year of computer each skill level if the United studies. States’ skill levels resembled 15Of the 1,184,000 bachelor’s de­ Sweden. Taking both of the dis­ grees conferred in 1998, 33,000 tributions, we multiplied the av­ were conferred in the liberal arts erage earnings of U.S. workers and sciences, general studies, in each skill level by the number and humanities. In 1998, there of workers in each level, and were 12,000 bachelor’s degrees summed to get aggregate earn­ awarded in math but, in the ings. The difference in aggregate same year, there were 233,000 earnings using the U.S. and Swe­ bachelor’s degrees awarded in den distributions provides an business; 17,000 bachelor’s de­ estimate of the potential increase grees awarded in parks, recre­ in GDP. We then multiplied the ation, leisure, and fitness stud­ estimated increase by 35% to ies; 50,000 in communications; capture the additional federal,