Commercializing Plug-In Hybrids
November 1, 2007 PHEV2007 Winnipeg
Felix Kramer, Founder The California Cars Initiative info@calcars.org
PDF of latest presentation always at www.calcars.org/downloads
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“Nonprofit Startup”: CalCars’ hybrid goals/members
• Entrepreneurs • Engineers • Environmentalists • Consumers/drivers Technology - Expand decisionmaking (demos) - New models for partners/ Advocacy open source innovation - Approach success! (buyers) - Give messages of hope
Progress since October 2003
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Expand driver choice via line extensions…
…and from the ground-up vehicles
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PHEV’s 2nd fuel tank
The freedom of the open road, PLUS…
Modified from an EDTA diagram concept
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Cleaner, cheaper, domestic
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Beating the European Union’s 125gm CO2 target
ElectGrid EV EV PHEV-32 PHEV-96 EV as EV as % EV as % Location g/kWh g/km gm/km gm/km % of ICE of diesel of HEV Calif 2004 236 39 101 65 18% 20% 31%
U.S. 2004 615 103 120 110 48% 53% 81% U.S. 2010 500 84 114 97 36% 43% 66% U.S. 2050 375 63 108 82 29% 32% 50%
• Source-to-wheels CO2 emissions for a Prius-sized passenger car – 216 gm/km, gasoline @ 9.2 l/100km (26 mpg) – 194 gm/km, diesel @ 7.2 l/100km (33 mpg) – 127 gm/km, hybrid @ 5.4 l/100km (44 mpg) – PHEV-20 (32 km EV range): 3.8 l/100km at 30% EV -- with higher EV%, my PHEV-25 often gets – PHEV-60 (96 km EV range): 1.6 l/100km at 70% EV 100+mpg (40km/liter or <2.5 l/100km) 2010/2050 grid emissions from 2007 EPRI/NRDC Study EV/PHEV electric miles: 16.7 kWh/100km Analysis: CalCars Tech Lead Ron Gremban, Presentations at EEET-2007(see Downloads Page)
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November 2004: “open-source” PRIUS+ demo
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Media avalanche 2005
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Plug-in hybrids go to Washington 2006
“ Amazing breakthrough...”
You pull in and “ you plug it right into the wall… ”
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Unprecedented broad support & alliances
CONVERSION COMPANIES SUPPLIERS & COMPONENT-MAKERS
JOBS & FACTORY CONVERSIONs ENVIRONMENTALISTS & EV FANS
UTILITIES & FLEET BUYERS NEO-CONS / GEO-GREENS
RechargeIT
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Momentum grows 2006-2007
Cover Story May 2007
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“A coalition between the tree-huggers, the do-gooders, the sod-busters, the cheap hawks, and the evangelicals.” – former CIA Director James Woolsey More @ CalCars Photos pages
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2005-2007: 11 books with major focus on PHEVs
Order at www.calcars.org/books.html
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Disruptive forecasts: CARB & Alliance Bernstein
TOP: PHEVs soon -- or 25 years for fuel cells?" “CA Air Resources Board Staff Report,” ZEV Technology Symposium, April 2007 (excerpt)
BELOW: Alliance-Bernstein: “Mainstay” Int’l Energy Agency: “Niche” 2015: HEVs 50% new car sales 2030: Hybrid/PHEV Share of Vehicle Base: 72.0% not 0.7% New Vehicles: 85.0% not 1.0% “The Emergence of Hybrids” Alliance Bernstein June 2006 (download at CalCars.org)
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10+ carmakers interested; race to be first; still no timetables (CalCars “Carmakers” page tracks statements)
“Maybe not first but “Within 5- 10 years” – best” – Volvo may prototype be sooner Plug-in HV Daimler Sprinter PHEV; Chrysler: new electric division
Saturn Vue possible 2009 Chevy Volt: mass production 2010 goal; Opel Flextreme follows
Interest from Audi; China: BYD, Visionary Vehicles; US: Fisker, Venture Vehicles, Aptera, RMI
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Automakers still holding out for perfect batteries • 40 mile range/life of vehicle/price-competitive • NiMH: Proven in hybrid, RAV4 EV (100K+ miles) • Lithium-Ion (50-75K+ miles) “Good enough” for Version 1.0 demo fleets
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“Perfect” products start as “good enough”
Prius version v. 2.0 2001: 1.0 1997: v. 3.0 2003: acceptable best-seller Demo PHEVs Japan only 2004-07 Plug-in HV: pilot 2007-08
GM Impact GM EV-1 AC Propulsion 1990-1995 1996/1999 tZero 1997/2003 Tesla Roadster 2007: market Volt series PHEV 2010: success GM hoping to build it
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Key themes: why we can’t wait, must start now
• Electrify transp: responds to cleaner, cheaper, domestic crises • Climate crisis: CO2 “wedge” we can do now. China & coal. • “Good enough” welcomes but doesn’t require future technologies • Slow “Pearl Harbor:” we didn’t wait for “perfect” planes & tanks • Version 1.0 conversions/demo fleets will help v.2.0 cars succeed • Build realistic public expectations for market success • Make OEMs offers so good they can’t refuse: orders/warranties • State/int’l/national programs each >$100M/year: incentives. • What will end “limbo?” Disruptive int’l & small startup competitors
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2002-04: What's a PHEV? Keeping up the pressure 2005: Prove demand & pricing FANS: George Bush-James Hansen- Coming Up: Senators Brownback/Clinton/Obama- Bill Ford-Bill Press-Bob Lutz- • Tech demos John Doerr-Bill Clinton-Al Gore 2006: How/when can I get one? • Do-It-Yourself BEST CASE: requires campaign • Owners/drivers 2007: Expanding conversions; • Solar & V2G small company production plans 2008: Demo fleet production; • Partners/endorsers vehicle-to-grid experiments; public • Int’l campaigns incentives and battery warranties • CalCars 2.0 2009: Low-volume production 2010: Mass production 2011: Optimized PHEVs
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CalCars: a resource for this broad campaign Watch News-Archive & Carmakers’ Statements pages Subscribe to CalCars-News Send people to Jobs page Print/distribute PDFs from Downloads page Donate!
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