GERMANY Germany in a Changing World

ARMIN STAIGIS

ERLIN—At the Munich Security Conference earlier this year, the , Joachim Gauck asked the following Bkey questions: • “Has Germany already adequately recognized the new threats and the changing structure of the international order? • “Has Germany shown enough initiative to ensure the future vi- ability of the networks of norms, friends, and alliances, which after all brought us peace in freedom and democracy in prosperity?” A moment later he took it upon himself to provide the answers: “Ger- many should make a more substantial contribution, and it should make it earlier and more decisively if it is to be a good partner.” His remarks prompted an intensive debate—immediately narrowed to the issue of Germany’s engagement in and contributions to current

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and future military operations. However, But there is more to be done. Germa- his remarks were meant as a wake-up call ny, and in particular the German public, designed to start a much broader discus- has to understand how dependent its own sion of Germany’s role and responsibilities peace, freedom, and prosperity is on this in a changing world, taking into account dynamic and changing world. A broad the broad spectrum of the nation’s power analysis, like the Review 2014 initiated by and influence. the German Foreign Office, is needed to So far, the debate has failed to engage define “long lines” of Germany’s role and much of the German public. Still, some responsibilities, including goals, interests, now understand that our country cannot instruments, and resources. play a leading role in economic and finan- Since the founding of the Federal Re- cial politics within the European Union public of Germany in 1949, foreign and and beyond, while at the same time re- security politics were largely determined maining more or less an observer when by six major factors, which contributed foreign and security politics are at stake. to the re-unification of the country and the overcoming of the divide in Europe. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES Though times have changed dramatically The Ukrainian crisis has clearly brought since then, these factors must be preserved about a substantial change. Germany has and further developed—taking into ac- taken the initiative and risks within the count current and future political chal- so-called Weimar Triangle, a grouping of lenges and concerns. Poland, Germany, and France, and within the European Union. There, Germany has FRANCE, GERMANY & EU been trying to define and pursue common The reconciliation between France and positions as prerequisites for any approach Germany, finalized with the Élysée Treaty toward Russia. of 1963, was an historical achievement. It The second substantial change was turned out to be the precondition for the made recently when Germany broke with European amalgamation that eventually its long-held policy not to supply lethal led to the establishment of the European weapons to conflict zones. The German gov- Union. The Franco-German cooperation as ernment decided to supply weapons to the part of this process has been called the “Eu- Kurds in Iraq, in concert with the EU policy ropean engine.” When this “engine” was on the conflict in northern Iraq. Germany running, Europe made progress. Nothing has not only backed the actions of its allies has changed in this respect—yet. Europe’s and others, but has taken on its own respon- political and economic power is located in sibilities in addressing the threat posed by its center, where France and Germany must the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, known as develop and pursue the required initiatives ISIS, which has occupied large parts of Iraq for Europe’s future. At the same time, they and slaughtered thousands of people. must take into account the interests of the

Armin Staigis retired as Brigadier General of the German Bundeswehr and now serves as Vice President of the Bundesakademie für Sicherheitspolitik—Federal Academy for Security Policy—in Berlin. The author expresses his personal views.

76 WORLD POLICY JOURNAL Downloaded from wpj.sagepub.com at COLUMBIA UNIV on December 19, 2014 GERMANY other EU members and need to cooperate the UK will join the two countries in with these countries closely. A core re- leading in this particular field with all its quirement for continuing this approach is knowledge, experience, and resources. that France and Germany perceive them- selves as equal partners. Yet there are some WESTERN ALLIANCE doubts stemming largely from Germany’s In the early years of the Federal Republic, dominance and France’s weakness in eco- the conservative former Chancellor Konrad nomic terms, as well as German reluctance Adenauer anchored and embedded West particularly on matters of defense policy. Germany into the Western alliance, one Both states must strengthen their bilateral of the wisest decisions in modern German political dialogue on these issues, with the history. Today it has become more trying goal of continuing to strengthen the “Eu- to argue for preserv- ropean engine.” ing or even enhanc- It might sound rather contradictory to ing the transatlantic during the argue for strengthening the EU while na- relationship—with last un reform tionalistic movements are becoming stron- an instinctive Ameri- ger in Europe and one important member can disengagement process, state, the United Kingdom, is threatening from Europe, the germany the Union with withdrawal. But it must U.S. “pivot to Asia,” sought, in vain, be emphasized that the European Union and the growing actually is a success story, unprecedented mistrust due to the a permanent in history. It can be an example to other NSA spying scandal seat on the regions on this globe. Moreover, a united and other espionage Europe is the only answer by the old con- incidents which have security tinent to the new challenges in a dramati- even higher visibil- council. cally changing world. ity in Germany than Only free and united can the EU be in the United States. Germans are asking, an acknowledged global actor, preserving “Why do they spy on us when they could its own interests while also contributing and should talk to us?” Trust between states to stability and peace. The economic and and people is of extraordinary political value. financial crisis that debuted in 2007 has This should not be neglected by Americans. clearly demonstrated that Europe as a union German irritations about the United States is already a global actor. Thus, it’s about as a viable partner can have a deep and last- time that the EU becomes a global player ing impact on transatlantic relations. in the field of what is called the Common Political ideas or initiatives should Foreign and Security Politics of the Union. normally never be pursued without al- First steps have been taken, even in de- ternatives. But with respect to good and fense policy, but much remains to be done, trusting transatlantic relations, there is no not as a competitor of the United States, alternative for either the United States or but in concert. Germany, as a leading state Europe. No conceivable alternative exists within Europe, carries a particular respon- for either partner that would allow it to sibility to move this forward. The Franco- define and pursue common positions— German “engine” must be kept alive— most recently toward Russia in the Ukrai- and Europeans should hope that one day nian crisis. We share so many values, and

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most of our interests are identical. We are Germany must take a leading role in partners within the North Atlantic Alli- developing this policy within the EU, giv- ance. Looking at current and future risks en its wide-ranging relations with Russia. and threats, NATO must be strengthened This includes bearing possible negative ef- to ensure the security of the U.S. and Eu- fects on its own economy and sharing the rope. In this context, time might be ripe necessary burden in military terms. Such to discuss openly and frankly how freedom a policy may also require patience and en- and security is to be balanced in this new durance if Putin maintains his nationalistic technological era. Additionally, a debate is and hegemonic politics. Russia is an essen- essential on a more equal burden sharing tial part of Europe, and thus the Western between Europe and the United States re- nations have to deal with this country and garding defense. maintain communication and consultation There are also opportunities for im- based on their own strength and unity. provement in the field of economic policy. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment EUROPE AS A WHOLE Program [TTIP] would combine the two The 1975 Helsinki Charter—the core of strongest economic centers of the world, the Conference on Security and Coopera- with advantages for both the United States tion in Europe [CSCE] process—laid the and the European Union. TTIP would foundation for the beginning of the end bring more economic growth, more job of the Soviet regime and the . creation, and better social standards if both Citizens in Central and Eastern Europe de- sides were willing to compromise. It would manded and the rule of law, also send a clear signal to all other global referring to this Charter, while succeeding partners by setting common standards. Fur- in overcoming the unnatural division of Eu- thermore, such a pact could be an impetus rope. In 1990, all European states, together to search for additional common solutions with the United States and Canada, as well in transatlantic relations. as the still existing Soviet Union, declared the objective of a “Europe whole and free.” EASTWARD BOUND A quarter century later the ques- With the Ukraine crisis in mind, it might tion must be asked if this really has been sound strange to argue for a partnership achieved. Sadly, the Ukrainian crisis pro- with Russia. But even during the coldest vides us with a negative answer. Not all periods of the , the Western na- countries are sovereign and independent, tions kept political contacts alive with Mos- and not all people are free and living un- cow. In the end, the Ostpolitik of Chancel- der the rule of law in democracy and peace, lor contributed very much particularly not those in Russia and its to the process which tore down the Berlin neighborhood. What went wrong, and Wall and overcame the division of Europe. what remains to be done? There is no doubt that any kind of partner- First, the EU member states, the Unit- ship policy with President Putin will be ed States, and Canada must care more in difficult. So it is of utmost importance that political, economic, and military terms the United States and the European Union about the states in Eastern Europe, which remain united and firmly committed to a are neither members of NATO nor the common policy toward Russia. EU. Second, a common Western policy

78 WORLD POLICY JOURNAL Downloaded from wpj.sagepub.com at COLUMBIA UNIV on December 19, 2014 GERMANY toward and with Russia must be pursued. unprecedented degree of interdependen- Finally, the Organization for Security and cies, but also vulnerabilities, with profound Cooperation in Europe [OSCE], successor consequences for Germany and its partners. to the CSCE, must be invigorated with a Germany is more exposed to globalization special focus on peace and security. than many other countries and must there- fore consider these interdependencies and WITHIN THE UN their concurrent vulnerabilities in develop- Not until 1973 did both Germanys, the ing its political approaches. communist East and the free West, be- come members of the United Nations. RISING POWERS, FAILED STATES After 1990, re-united Germany has always This group of rapidly rising nations in- taken an active role within the United cludes first and foremost China, but also Nations and is one of its largest financial developing countries such as India, Brazil, contributors. During the last UN reform South Africa, and In- process, Germany sought, in vain, a per- donesia. Some share manent seat in the Security Council. Un- such values as the germany and fortunately, UN structures, especially the rule of law and good Security Council itself, still reflect the governance. But many other world order of 1945. All reform endeavors many do not see the states have in this respect have failed, limiting or even West as a role model begun to act impeding efforts and initiatives in the im- and are reluctant to portant fields of peace, security, stability, grant political and in a timely and and development. This leads to one of the social rights and free- appropriate most serious deficiencies in world politics. doms. The current fashion, Since 2011, the disastrous civil war and probable future in Syria has been the prime example. The focus of these states addressing UN is the only global forum providing is on their economic their the framework for a rule-based interna- growth, which may tional order, including the unique right to generate economic environmental legitimize the use of force outside the uni- cooperation, but also challenges versal right of self-defense. So strengthen- competition with with national ing the United Nations and its affiliate Western countries, organizations, while taking on its national including Germany. initiatives. responsibilities within the UN remains an The willingness of important goal of German foreign policy. these rising states to take on responsibili- At the same time, Germany is fully aware ties for peace, security, and stability within of the fact that improvements can only the international order is rather limited to be achieved in close cooperation with its their respective regions and mainly aimed Western partners and in concert with such at preserving their own interests. other major powers as China, Russia, In- In the case of China, an aggressive policy dia, and Brazil. toward its neighbors leads to a continuing Globalization has created new political, state of high tension in East Asia, where a economic, and social networks, which now balancing policy of the United States in span the globe. This reality has caused an support of these neighboring countries is

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SECRETARY OF STATE JOHN KERRY AND GERMAN PRESIDENT JOACHIM GAUCK AT THE 50TH MU- NICH SECURITY CONFERENCE

of utmost importance. However, even this engulfing an entire region. In a globalized cannot guarantee peace in that region. Any world, a local problem can quickly develop conflict there would have serious global im- into a regional, even international crisis. plications. Inevitably, these polycentric de- However, it becomes a problem when the velopments will lead to competition, even to regional, even international community is conflicts by the new economic and political not engaged early enough and proactively. powers with the West. A concerted Western During the last two decades’ crises, con- policy, which combines engagement where flicts, even wars in the Balkans, the Middle possible, and containment where necessary, East, Africa, and Asia offer clear evidence must be further developed. The EU and Ger- that the international community acted or US CONSULATE GENERAL MUNICH US CONSULATE many need to play an active role. The best reacted too late, or worse yet, not at all. case scenario should lead to a new architec- Conflict prevention is the catchphrase. ture of the international order with these It requires the willingness of political lead- new powers appropriately represented, while ers and their voters to act in a timely fash- preventing the formation of new blocks. ion by using all instruments required, if At the same time, the international necessary also military means, to end and community is faced with too many fragile resolve a conflict. With the experience of or failed states. In all too many such na- less successful military engagements in the tions, what begins as an internal conflict last decade and conscious of their reduced quickly spills over to neighbors, quite often resources, the United States and Europe

80 WORLD POLICY JOURNAL Downloaded from wpj.sagepub.com at COLUMBIA UNIV on December 19, 2014 GERMANY do feel exhausted regarding any further in- local and regional authorities and organi- ternational involvement. However, when zations is imperative. At least, good gov- analyzing political, economic, and social ernance and economic and social welfare at fragility in many countries, largely within an appropriate level have the effect of eradi- the European neighborhood, it seems high cating the influence of extremists. Only time to develop a renewed common and the United States and the EU are able and comprehensive policy on conflict preven- also obliged to pursue such a policy due to tion. In concert with a global American their political, economic, and military capa- policy, the EU, and therefore Germany as bilities, but more importantly due to their one of its leading states, has a particular commitment to universal norms like hu- responsibility for preserving peace and se- man dignity, freedom, and democracy. curity in and for Europe by using its wide As for organized crime, with its involve- range of instruments. ment in human, drug, and weapons traf- ficking, and money laundering, the roots PRIVATIZING VIOLENCE are mainly to be found in fragile and failed Globalization has accelerated the privati- states. But the involvement of criminal zation and individualization of violence in elements of our own societies is immense its major forms of terrorism and organized and alarming. These criminals, many with crime. Fragile or failed states combined white collars, misuse the opportunities of with political and religious extremism nur- globalization—open borders and open soci- ture both. However, the negative effects of eties—to their personal profit and by doing terrorism and organized crime spill over to so diminish or even destroy the reputation other nations and regions with profound and credibility of the West as a role model implications for internal security. The situ- for the rule of law and justice. Solutions can ation is worsening due to the fact that terror only be found internally with swift and sure organizations are occupying and control- criminal proceedings, and externally with ling entire geographical areas, sometimes an enhanced information exchange and bet- across state borders, such as Hamas in Gaza, ter international cooperation of police and ISIS in Syria and Iraq, the Taliban in Paki- judicial authorities. stan and Afghanistan, and Boko Haram in Nigeria. Military operations alone cannot NEW NUCLEAR THREATS resolve these problems. In many cases they In addition to the known nuclear armed may even generate more hatred, especially states, at least 30 other countries have the if Western states get involved. capacity to join the nuclear club in a rather There is no simple answer on how to short timeframe. Such a prospect would deal with such threats. What is required make this world a much more danger- is an internationally agreed upon, com- ous place to live. The ongoing P5+1 (five prehensive political approach employing permanent members of the UN Security all instruments of diplomacy, economic, Council plus Germany, in Europe named and development cooperation, humanitar- the E3+3) negotiations with the Iranians ian assistance, and decisive military action, should be seen in this broader context. if necessary, with the main effort directed If Iran became a nuclear weapons state, toward the suffering local population. Fur- it would not only destabilize the Middle thermore, close cooperation with reliable East but open Pandora’s box, kickstarting

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a new nuclear arms race with severe impli- If the required measures are not im- cations for security on a global dimension. plemented soon, in a few years we will all As the present course of the negotia- be exposed to much more serious health tions indicates, this nuclear reality is also risks stemming from increased pollution; understood by Moscow and Beijing. The living conditions will be severely impact- United States, the EU, and the three Euro- ed by weather catastrophes and droughts; pean negotiating partners, Great Britain, and in nearly 50 years, some countries, France, and Germany, have to keep Russia or at least some parts of them, will have and China on board and moving toward disappeared from this globe as a result an acceptable solution with Iran during of rising water levels. This all will have the next months. An agreement with Iran political, economic, social, and humani- is an essential step, probably a prerequi- tarian repercussions, with an immensely site for a successful important security dimension. review conference of Germany and many other states have be- germany has to the Non-Prolifera- gun to act in a timely and appropriate fashion, exercise more tion Treaty in 2015. addressing their environmental challenges This treaty is still with national initiatives and legislation. But responsibility a controversial and solutions are essential on a global level. It is to preserve fragile component important that a new UN Climate agreement peace and of international law. be prepared for implementation in 2015. The Adaptations and United States and the EU should play an ac- security for additional commit- tive and decisive part in this process, and ourselves and ments by nuclear- both should do everything possible to involve armed states may China and the developing world. for others. be requested during this conference and DEMOGRAPHICS may even be necessary. But its preserva- Demographic shifts influence internal poli- tion is of utmost importance to global se- tics in countries and regions, while impact- curity and peace. ing foreign and security policy on a global level—a trend that is only likely to grow CLIMATE CHANGE in importance. Looking only 15 to 20 years Policy makers and the public are still ahead, several assumptions on population confronted with controversial scientific figures should to be taken into account. The views on the consequences of the climate United States will maintain its current level, change. Whoever and whatever is right, while Europe’s population may decrease up too many have turned a blind eye to this to 25 percent, though immigration might issue, some out of indifference, others change this to a certain extent. China’s popu- to preserve their economic interests. We lation will plateau, but Beijing will be con- all notice the effects on the environment fronted with intensifying social problems and our lives, but there is still a strong stemming from an ageing society caused by reluctance in too many parts of the world, the one-child-policy. In total contrast, the including the West, to consider the me- population of Africa and the Arab world will dium- and long-term consequences and double within the next 15 years, with 40 per- take the necessary steps now. cent under the age of 20.

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A central question is whether the affected ficials and the private sector by providing ca- African and Arabic nations will be in a posi- pabilities to monitor and influence, and more tion to provide their young people with a sat- critically, to control citizens. So extensive cy- isfying future. And then there’s the question ber networks suggest new risks and threats to of how much the West is able and willing our security are imminent. to support these countries. Whatever might Cyber security is the future, demand- happen is likely to occur in the European, ing challenge for states, their institutions, and therefore German, neighborhood. The and infrastructure, including the military, current refugee crisis in the Mediterranean for enterprises and finance institutes, as region, with unacceptable humanitarian con- well as individuals. On the other hand, cy- sequences, may provide us with a first im- berspace offers an amount of information pression of what may be at stake. and opportunities for participation never Furthermore, if we expand our focus before seen. This can to all of North and sub-Saharan Africa, be used with negative as well as the Middle East, we face many impact by spreading germany has states with weak governance, economic, misinformation and never been as and social structures, which trigger so- propaganda, but also cial unrest, violence, and insecurity. Major for positive impact prosperous, problems lie ahead of us, which can only like engaging citi- secure, and free be resolved within the affected countries. zens in political and as it is today. Due to their close proximity, the EU, with social processes. Germany as a leading but also affected na- Western societies many germans tion, must define ways and means to as- and the global com- take this reality sist and support in close cooperation with munity are confronted for granted and these states. Such an approach also requires with important polit- the engagement of the United States, the ico-strategic questions falsely assume rising nations, and the more prosperous such as how to pre- these times will Arab countries. Thinking ahead, such ini- serve our freedoms and tiatives are a prerequisite for preserving human dignity, how last forever. our own freedom, prosperity, and internal to ensure the security and external security. of our citizens, and how to balance both in this information age. Germany and all other CYBER REVOLUTION states are only in a position to determine na- Cyber technology must be recognized as a tional legislation with rather limited impact revolution and is influencing nearly all as- as cyber networks operate globally. So global pects of our lives. Looking back it seems to be solutions are necessary and overdue. As a first that we have not understood the effects of this step, a legal framework dealing with cyber- new technology to the extent necessary, and space is essential within the UN. The United looking ahead we will need more time to get States carries particular responsibilities on a full grip on the consequences. Cyberspace cyber issues by virtue of its dominance in provides us with a scale of transparency never this field. Still, frank and open consultations known before and with opportunities of par- between Americans and Europeans are nec- ticipation never experienced. Furthermore, essary to overcome differences on important cyber technology has strengthened public of- cyberspace issues—the balance between free-

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dom and security of our citizens, leading to a even more and participation to our common transatlantic position which could citizens, fighting injustice with all legal and pave the way to a vital global legal frame- economic means available, and provide our work. societies, particularly our youth, with at- tractive future prospects. If this is done suc- VALUES AND CONFLICTS cessfully at home, it provides us with the States and their citizens are confronted regu- instruments and the credibility to advocate larly by values and conflicts in this polycen- for these values and our way of life in our tric world. Democratic states with political foreign policy. Then, in medium- and long- systems focused on the individual are chal- term perspectives, we will win the compe- lenged by authoritarian regimes where a tition on value systems and contribute to a small group rules the collective. Too many better and safer world. countries, particularly some rising nations, are pursuing this authoritarian course. In PRINCIPALS FOR GERMANY this sense, China is clearly an authoritarian Germany shares a host of foreign and secu- regime, while Russia certainly seems headed rity challenges that affect most other states, in this direction. Are these states or these and especially its Western allies, in this glo- political systems attractive to others, in the balized world. It’s therefore advisable to de- case of China due to their economic success? fine principles relevant for Germany, which What about the attractiveness of our own might be also applicable to the foreign and Western values and way of life? security policies of other countries. A comprehensive analysis of the West- The first principle could be called the ern model and its impact on the daily life of imperative of multilateralism. No state, our citizens might suggest some important neither Germany nor other European states answers. Americans and Europeans are fully nor the United States as the only remain- committed to human dignity, civil liber- ing global power, can act on its own. All ties, rule of law, and political participation. nations have largely lost their autonomy. However, globalization and the economic The scope and the content of sovereignty crisis have undeniably negative effects on in international affairs and the role of the our states and their citizens. Societies have national state in general must be reexam- become more fragile, social contracts more ined. We are getting ever closer to an end brittle. All of us within the EU should be of the Westphalian Order of 1648, when concerned about the reality that as many as the first real nation-states were created in half the youths in southern EU states are un- the European region under a principal of employed or do not have a chance to study. recognition of sovereignty. In the age of Then there are the realities of a widening globalization, solutions require multilat- inequality of wealth and income in our eral approaches. In this sense, the Europe- Western societies. We should not harbor the an Union might set the political example illusion that modern democracies are im- for other states and regions. And for Ger- mune to populist temptations or to anxious many, multilateralism has been and will attempts to pull up the drawbridges. remain a state’s raison d’être. On the contrary, we Europeans and The second principle calls for the end Americans alike must strengthen our com- of any zero-sum approaches. They are to be mon values and our way of life by granting replaced with win-win situations, requir-

84 WORLD POLICY JOURNAL Downloaded from wpj.sagepub.com at COLUMBIA UNIV on December 19, 2014 GERMANY ing empathy for the others, or as Henry The final principle applies specifically to Kissinger put it, “watching the world Germany. For decades, Germany was a con- through the eyes of others.” This should sumer of a security guaranteed by NATO apply to the whole spectrum of political and especially the United States. The re- affairs. There may be some leaders unwill- united Germany, due to its size, power, and ing to accept this rule. But they will be influence, especially its economic strength, the future losers. President Putin may just must exercise more responsibility. Allies prove to be the first example. expect Germany to contribute significantly All Western states, Germany includ- to the shaping of international policy and to ed, must not apply double standards in become a security provider. In this sense, the pursuing their policies. Any approach and narrowed internal German debate, which action should be fully compatible with focuses exclusively on Germany’s military the values for which they stand. Consider engagements, is misleading. Much more this a call for a value-based foreign and is required. Germany must play a critical security policy, the third principle. It is leadership position aimed at common goals true that conflicts may occur between val- with others, and for others within the EU, ues and interests, especially dealing with NATO, and the UN. authoritarian states, extremists, or even terrorists. Unfortunately, there are too PUBLIC DEBATE IN GERMANY many examples, particularly related to Germany has never been as prosperous, se- security interests, where Western states, cure, and free as it is today. Many Germans including their military leaders, failed to take this reality for granted and falsely as- follow their own values and comply with sume these times will last forever. Yet our international law. This must be changed if freedom, security, and prosperity are depen- we are to preserve and enhance our cred- dent on Europe and the world as a whole. ibility and reassure others that the West is These realities and our role, responsibilities, bound to its own values and is reliable in and concerns as a member of the internation- respecting them. al community must be communicated by Any foreign and security policy solu- our politicians, policy makers, and civilian tion requires a comprehensive approach and military experts. from the beginning—the fourth principle. Germany’s President, Joachim Gauck, Separate diplomatic, economic, social, and launched this process at the Munich Secu- especially military approaches will fail to rity Conference last January. However, much resolve any problem, whether in terms of more must be done if our citizens are to un- conflict prevention, crisis management, or derstand and accept what it means to con- peace consolidation. This requires us to tribute substantially to the stability of the decide on clear and achievable political ob- international order. With the speed at which jectives, followed by an intensive informa- international crises are evolving today, a tion exchange, andclose coordination and commitment by leading countries like Ger- cooperation aimed at integrated action be- many to decide earlier, faster, and more deci- tween the different actors on national and sively is essential if we are to preserve peace international levels. and security for ourselves and for others. l

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