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Hariri's Return Touches the Surface but Leaves Lebanon's Troubled Waters

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Hariri's Return Touches the Surface but Leaves Lebanon's Troubled Waters 14 December 3, 2017 News & Analysis Lebanon Hariri’s return touches the surface but leaves Lebanon’s troubled waters murky Simon Speakman Cordall Tunis fter weeks of uncer- tainty and intrigue, the appearance of a consen- sus seems to have taken shape in Beirut. Leba- neseA President Michel Aoun can claim the laurels of peacemaker as, apparently through his interven- tion, Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s resignation has been suspended, Hezbollah’s regional bite has been blunted and the fury of the regions two self-appointed superpowers, Saudi Arabia and Iran, has been as- suaged. However, though much sound and fury echoed over the region, little of significance has occurred. The question of Lebanon’s rap- prochement with Syria remains unanswered and until that bridge is broached genuine progress is likely impossible. The regional machinations of Iran and its Lebanese proxy, Hez- bollah, figured highly in Hariri’s resignation speech November 4 from Riyadh. Iran, Hariri said, “driven by a deep hatred of the Arab nation and an overwhelm- ing desire to destroy and control Business as usual. Lebanese President Michel Aoun (C) meets with Prime Minister Saad Hariri (R) and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri at it,” had extended its reach beyond the Presidential Palace in Baabda, on November 27. (AP) Lebanon to Syria, Iraq, Bahrain and Yemen. Hariri’s resignation and the tle since it can rely upon the blocs to establish a 21st-century silk road widely considered to be responsi- According to Dorsey, neither events that followed it ratcheted of both the president and speaker linking all of Eurasia through an ble for the 2005 assassination of his Hezbollah nor Iran was driven to up tensions across the region, to exert its influence by proxy. immense network of land, sea and father, may be a step too far. supporting Yemen’s Houthi re- with many analysts mooting the Politically, both sides have with- trade routes. His personal distaste for the As- bels from any ideological commit- possibility of conflict between an drawn to their corners. However, For Lebanon, whose faltering sad regime notwithstanding, there ment, so much as a desire to make unchecked Hezbollah in Lebanon Hezbollah’s ambition — to restore economy is struggling to support are indications that Hariri’s spon- life harder for Riyadh. However, and Israel. However, after the an- a political and diplomatic bridge more than 1 million Syrian refu- sors in Riyadh may not be as op- whether restoration of Lebanon’s nouncement that Hezbollah would to Syria once its military mission gees, it’s a tantalising prospect. posed to the move as their past ac- relations with Syria would be be withdrawing its forces from Syr- is complete — remains undimmed. However, for Hariri, restoring dip- tions suggested. During the Syrian enough to sidetrack Hezbollah and ia and Iraq once the need for its in- That much was made clear, not lomatic relations with the coun- opposition’s recent conference in Iran remains to be seen. volvement had passed, peace was least by the attendance of two min- try that, along with Hezbollah, is Riyadh, Saudi Arabia exhibited few What cannot be denied is the restored. isters — one from Hezbollah and qualms about working with Russia, increased support Hariri enjoys Beyond the rhetoric lies the fact another from the Shia Amal party Damascus’s principal ally, in unify- at home and abroad since his dra- that Hezbollah’s decisions to with- — at a Syrian trade fair in August The question of ing the Syrian opposition. matic sojourn in Saudi Arabia. draw from Syria and Iraq predated marking the country’s reconstruc- Lebanon’s There is also the suggestion put However, popularity can only go so Hariri’s resignation. Neither has tion. rapprochement with forward by James M. Dorsey, of far. In Lebanon the dividing lines Hezbollah made mention of its Sweetening the pot has been the Syria remains the Middle East Institute think- and choices stand and, despite the involvement in Yemen. Likewise, suggestion that China may involve unanswered and until tank, that rebuilding the alliance drama, remain unchallenged. Hezbollah’s apparent offer, made itself in Syria’s reconstruction, a between Syria and Lebanon may after negotiations with Aoun, that move that could see Damascus that bridge is broached be enough to distract Hezbollah Simon Speakman Cordall is the it would withdraw its two ministers play a significant part within Chi- genuine progress is from frustrating Saudi ambitions in Syria/Lebanon Section Editor for from Hariri’s cabinet amount to lit- nese President Xi Jinping’s plans likely impossible. Yemen. The Arab Weekly Viewpoint The lessons of Hariri’s resignation should not be unlearned ebanese Prime Minister this, as much as anything else, that tackling the elephant in the room, project the image of a statesman Saad Hariri’s suspension led to Lebanon’s regional aliena- they are opting to paper over it, intent on preserving the interna- of his resignation, his tion and the theatrics in Riyadh of loudly proclaiming their alleged tional legacy of his father, he has office said, may soon -be Hariri’s resignation. commitment to the concept of chosen to deepen his unholy alli- Makram Rabah come permanent. How- Much ink has been spilt trying to dissociation while maintaining the ance with Aoun. ever, the undue haste analyse and understand the intrica- practices that led to their predica- When examined closely, this is a lecturer at the American Lwith which all are moving risks cies of Hariri’s decision to resign, a ment. While Hariri might be intent has failed to do much to redeem University of Beirut and author of leaving the fundamental issues process that has seen the volume on shielding Lebanon from the Hariri’s faltering political career, “A Campus at War: Student Politics that brought them to this apparent of speculation only matched by financial and political wrath of the one damaged by continual attacks at the American University of impasse unaddressed. the morass of misinformation. Yet, Saudi-led coalition, Aoun’s bloc has on the prime minister, led not least Beirut, 1967-1975.” Hariri’s conciliatory stance ma- what is certain is that, contrary yet to show remorse for its part in by his current partners in govern- terialised after Lebanese President to the line Hariri and his allies are creating the crisis. ment. Equally, Aoun has nullified Michel Aoun assured the prime peddling, the crisis is far from over. On the contrary, during a recent provisions of the Taif Accord, minister that adequate measures Mere lip service is unlikely to ap- visit to Italy, Aoun felt it wise to which bestow on the prime minis- would be taken to address his main pease an edgy GCC determined to antagonise his critics by declaring ter constitutional powers equal to grievance — the urgent need to re- confront and check Iran’s expan- Hezbollah a strategic ally in the those of the president. However, turn to a clear policy of dissociation sionist plans. fight against terrorism both locally rather than use those powers, from regional conflicts. Thus far, in return for Hariri’s and abroad. Hariri ignored Aoun’s transgres- Lebanon’s practice of dissocia- quiescence, Hezbollah promised to Even supposing we give Aoun’s sions and shared in the spoils of tion has been a central pillar of its withdraw its advisers from Iraq and intentions the benefit of the doubt, state. foreign policy. It was the basis of its fighters from Syria once victory it’s a surprisingly reckless state- Hariri’s statement to a French the settlement brokered between has been assured. No indication has ment to come from such a veteran newspaper that “Hezbollah does Hariri and Aoun almost a year ago been given as to the extent of that politician, one sure to embolden an not use its weapons on Lebanese in which Aoun would be elected withdrawal. Neither has there been armed militia deeply implicated in territory” is not only a colossal fal- Aoun has never president and Hariri named prime any reference to the group’s in- the anarchy engulfing the region. lacy but ample proof that depend- minister, charged with leading a volvement in the conflict in Yemen The fact is that Aoun has never ing on him to steer Lebanon out missed a chance to national unity government that or acknowledgement that Hezbol- missed a chance to give legitimacy of its political storm is costly and give legitimacy to included Hezbollah. lah’s deployment to these areas to Hezbollah and, by doing so, unwise. This supposedly unwavering ran counter to Lebanon’s policy of has lent credence to accusations A month after Hariri’s resigna- Hezbollah and, by commitment to dissociation evapo- dissociation. It’s hardly a dramatic hurled at Lebanon by its benefac- tion announcement, little has sub- doing so, has lent rated. Increasingly, through Aoun’s break with past policy. Moreover, tors in the GCC. It’s not surprising stantially changed. What is certain credence to actions and statements, echoed neither has there been any under- that they and others are begin- from these recent weeks is that faithfully by his son-in-law, Foreign taking that Hezbollah won’t be ning to view Lebanon, including Hariri and his allies are so eager to accusations hurled Minister Gebran Bassil, a policy deployed so again. None of this can the political future of Hariri, as an return to “business as usual” that at Lebanon by its direction was established that be lost on Hariri. unsalvageable mess. they have gambled recklessly with clearly favoured Iran’s aims over It’s a fact that the Lebanese Hariri has failed to produce a the economic safety net Lebanon’s benefactors in those of a relatively united Gulf generally, and Hariri specifically, blueprint to extricate Lebanon wary allies had previously the GCC.
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