RESEARCH BRIEF 2018-12 May 2018

STUDY OF INNOVATION AND TECHNOLOGY IN CHINA RESEARCH BRIEF 2018-12 May 2018

New Frontiers of Chinese Defense Innovation: Artificial Intelligence and Quantum Technologies

Elsa B. Kania Will the Chinese military succeed in advancing new frontiers of defense intelligence and quantum technologies. The continued advances in these innovation? China has already emerged as a powerhouse in artificial dual-use technologies may be leveraged for military applications pursuant to a national strategy of military-civil fusion. At this point, the trajectory of technological developments is uncertain, and considerable challenges remain to the actualization of deeper fusion of China’s defense and commercial sectors. However, if successful, China’s ambitions to lead in these strategic technologies could enable it to pioneer new paradigms of military power.

The Study of Innovation and Technology in China (SITC) is a project of the University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation. SITC Research Briefs provide analysis and recommendations based on the work of project participants. Author’s views are their own. This material is based upon work supported by, or in part by, the US Army Research Laboratory and the US Army Research Office through the Minerva Initiative under grant #W911NF-15-1-0407. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the US Army Research Office.

1 US–China strategic competition is back to China. Increasingly, however, seen going forward, but these case intensifying at a time when a range of Chinese researchers and enterprises - emerging technologies are poised to are at the forefront of the latest ad- telligence and quantum technologies change the character of future con- vances, from biotechnology to arti- indicatestudies of initial its approach progress. to artificial in current military balance. The recent technologies. Recognizing the criti- trajectoryflict, perhaps of Chinese even disruptingmilitary mod the- calityficial intelligenceof these technologies, and even quantumChina is ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE ernization has enabled the Chinese mobilizing state support—including China has rapidly emerged as a pow- People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to massive amounts of funding and ef- achieve rapid advances and become forts to recruit and educate top tal- this “rise” in AI, the rapid advances a near-peer competitor to the United ent—with the ambition of to “lead the anderhouse dynamism in artificial of private intelligence. enterprises, In States. Increasingly, the PLA is not world” in future innovation in these particularly such leading tech compa- only seeking to catch up, but instead dual-use strategic technologies. nies as Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent, also competing in new frontiers of The PLA’s capability to leverage have predated the more recent plans military power, even looking to leap these dual-use advances for military and policies. However, China is rap- ahead of the United States in future applications will depend on the real- idly building momentum to harness military competition. Xi Jinping has ization of a national strategy for civil- state support to accelerate innova- called for the advancement of mili- military integration (or “military civil tion in next-generation AI technolo- tary innovation, declaring that the fusion,” 军民融合). To date, the private gies. In July 2017, the State Council re- PLA will emerge as a, perhaps even sector has been the primary engine the, “world-class” (世界一流) military for AI developments, while progress Intelligence Development Plan (新一 by mid-century.1 Chinese leaders rec- in quantum science is primarily occur- 代人工智能发展规划leased the New Generation), which Artificial articu- ognize that the pursuit of innovation ring within academia. Although this lated China’s ambition to become “the in strategic technologies, particularly concept has a long history of mixed world’s premier AI innovation center” success, there are now new levels of and build up an AI industry of 1 tril- to achieve future competitive advan- prioritization and momentum for its lion RMB (about $150 billion) in the tage.artificial intelligence (AI), is critical implementation, including the estab- process.3 In this endeavor, the pursuit Xi Jinping has highlighted ambi- lishment of the CCP’s Central Military of military-civil fusion is a clear prior- tions to build China into a “science Civil Fusion Development Committee ity, given the strategic potential of this and technology superpower” (科技强 (中央军民融合发展委员会), under dual-use technology. 国) capable of truly original, disrup- the leadership of Xi Jinping himself. It is striking just how rapidly and tive innovation. Traditionally, Chinese Concurrently, a number of new recently AI has emerged as a top pri- “indigenous innovation” (自主创新) plans and policies seek to break down ority for Chinese leaders. The deci- has often relied upon the absorption traditional barriers to such “fusion.”2 sion to develop this recent plan ap- of foreign technologies, but a new Within the PLA, the Central Military pears to have been catalyzed in part paradigm of Chinese defense innova- Commission (CMC) Science and Tech- by AlphaGo’s triumph over Lee Sedol tion is emerging. Certainly, there will nology Commission seeks to act as in March 2016, which might be char- continue to be parallel “going out” a “DARPA with Chinese characteris- acterized as a ‘Sputnik moment’ for (走出去) and “bringing in” (引进来) tics” to catalyze disruption, exercis- China. Against the backdrop of US AI efforts that seek to leverage interna- ing high-level leadership on these is- plans and strategies released in mid tional “innovation resources” through sues, in conjunction with the CMC and late 2016 under the Obama ad- targeted investments, acquisitions, ministration, AlphaGo was seen as joint ventures, and research centers Committee. China’s prospects for another indication of US advance- abroad, while also seeking to draw successMilitary Scientificin these Researchnew frontiers Steering of ment in disruptive technologies that top talent and critical technologies defense innovation remain to be could place China at a distinct disad-

1 “Striding Toward a World-class Military: The 19th Party Congress Report Draws a Blueprint for National Defense and Army Building” [阔步迈向世界一流军队—党的十九大报告擘画国防和军队建设], Xinhua, October 19, 2017, http://www.xinhuanet.com/ politics/2017-10/19/c_1121826038.htm. 2 See, for instance, “Thirteenth Five-Year” Science and Technology Military-Civil Fusion Special Plan” Released Today” ["十三五”科技军民融合发展专项规划》近日印发], Xinhua, August 23, 2017, http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2017-08/23/c_1121531750. htm. 3 “State Council Notice on the Issuance of the New Generation AI Development Plan” [国务院关于印发新一代人工智能发展规划的通知], August 20, 2017, http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2017-07/20/content_5211996.htm

2 vantage.4 Since its release, China’s na- in May 2017, which aims to develop has called for the application of big tional AI plan has acted as an impe- AI technologies that learn from the data, cloud computing, AI, and other tus for new energy and motion across mechanisms of the human brain and cutting-edge technologies in the con- China’s science and technology bu- to promote brain-inspired neural struction of a joint operations com- reaucracies. This will be a whole-of- chips and brain-inspired intelligent mand system. China is advancing in government endeavor involving no robotics. research and development for a range This direct involvement of private of military applications of AI, includ- along with a range of related plans companies in national laboratories ing intelligent and autonomous un- andfewer projects. than fifteen different entities, that may pursue dual-use technolo- manned systems; AI-enabled data Meanwhile, throughout China, cit- fusion, information processing, and ies and provinces have started to de- deep entanglement with the overall intelligence analysis; war-gaming, velop and release their own plans and agendagies and of applicationsthe party-state, reflects at a theirtime simulation, and training; defense, of- policies for AI. For example, Beijing when the “party-corporate complex” fense, and command in information plans to build a 13.8 billion RMB is also deepening and China’s national warfare; and intelligent support to ($2.12 billion) AI development park strategy of military-civil fusion is ad- command decision-making. Building that could host up to 400 AI enter- vancing. Indeed, the PLA recognizes upon its ongoing agenda of informati- prises, and Zhejiang has released a and seeks to take advantage of the zation, the PLA is seeking to advance - disruptive military potential of these “intelligentization” (智能化) as the dustry of over 50 billion RMB and re- dual-use technologies. According next stage in its modernization be- cruitfive-year 1,000 plan “high-end” to build uptalents core forAI inAI to Lieutenant General Liu Guozhi, yond informatization (信息化), seek- development. director of the CMC’s Science and ing to leverage AI as a force multiplier As the Chinese state throws its Technology Commission, AI will accel- for its future combat capabilities.6 support and resources behind AI de- erate the process of military transfor- velopment, major Chinese technology mation, causing fundamental changes companies will remain integral play- to military units’ programming, op- QUANTUM TECHNOLOGIES ers in this endeavor. Characterized erational styles, equipment systems, Within the past several years, Chinese as national champions in this do- and models of combat power genera- researchers have achieved a track remain, several leading Chinese AI tion, ultimately leading to a profound cord of consistent advances in ba- companies, acting as the “national military revolution. He warns, “facing sic research and the development of team,” will undertake the develop- disruptive technology, [we] must… quantum technologies. China’s launch ment of new “open innovation plat- seize the opportunity to turn sharp- forms” in AI. Baidu is responsible for ly to surpass (弯道超车); if you don’t (or Mozi, 墨子) in August 2016 com- autonomous vehicles, Alibaba Cloud disrupt, you will be disrupted!”5 mandedof the first headlines quantum and satellite, has since Micius en- (Aliyun) for smart cities, Tencent The PLA aspires to pioneer chang- abled major experimental advances for medical imaging, and iFlytek for es in paradigms of military power in in quantum key distribution, even smart voice. Baidu is leading China’s the AI revolution, hoping to leapfrog allowing for a quantum-secured vid- National Engineering Laboratory for the United States and achieve a de- eo call. Concurrently, China has pro- Deep Learning Technologies, estab- cisive advantage relative to regional gressed towards the construction of lished in March 2017, which will pur- rivals in the process. The CMC Joint a national quantum communications sue next-generation research in deep Staff Department has called for the infrastructure with the “Quantum learning. Baidu will also contribute to PLA to leverage the “tremendous po- Beijing-Shanghai Trunk” (量子京沪干 the National Engineering Laboratory tential” of AI in planning, decision 线).7 for Brain-Inspired Intelligence Tech- support, and operational command. Although Chinese efforts in quan- nology and Applications, established In addition, the Joint Staff Department tum computing remain relatively

4 For instance, this initial match provoked multiple high-level workshops and sessions, such as the following: China Military Science Editorial Department [中国军事科学编辑部], “A Summary of the Workshop on the Game between AlphaGo and Lee Sedol and the Intelligentization of Military Command and Decision-Making” [围棋人机大战与军事指挥决策智能化研讨会观点综述], China Military Science [中国军事科学], April 2, 2016. The participants included leading PLA thinkers from the Academy of Military Science, which directly advises the Central Military Commission; the National Defense University; and the National University of Defense Technology, among others.

Transformation” [人大代表刘国治：人工智能将加速军事变革进程]. 65 “The“National Era of People’s Military Congress Intelligentization Representative Won’t LiuAwait Guozhi: Us” [军事智能化时不我待 Artificial Intelligence], Will Ministry Accelerate of National the Process Defense, of MilitaryDecember 11, 2017, http://www.mod.gov.cn/jmsd/2017-12/11/content_4799575.htm. 7 “‘Quantum Beijing-Shanghai Backbone’ to Be Built This Year, Quantum Internet Can Be Expected” [“量子京沪干线”今年建成” 量子互联网”可期], Xinhua, March 3, http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2016lh/2016-03/03/c_1118225683.htm.

3 nascent, Chinese researchers have category of basic research related to September 2017, Chinese government reportedly achieved success in en- national strategic requirements.8 In is building the National Laboratory tangling 10 superconducting qubits, August 2016, the new 13th Five-Year for Quantum Information Science, a key step towards future quantum National Science and Technology which will become the world’s largest computing that broke Google’s prior Innovation Plan highlighted quantum quantum research facility. This new record of 9. The Chinese defense in- control and quantum information as national laboratory, which has re- dustry has also reported advances in priorities.9 Through this plan, quan- ceived 7 billion RMB ($1.06 billion) in quantum radar and sensing. These tum communications and computing funding to start, will pursue advanc- dual-use technologies will also be lev- have been designated as science and es in quantum computing and report- eraged for a range of defense applica- technology megaprojects prioritized edly engage in research “of immediate tions. for major advances by 2030, includ- use” to China’s armed forces, accord- Within the past several years, ing metropolitan and inter-city free ing to Pan Jianwei. This centraliza- quantum science has emerged as a space quantum communications, the tion of resources and researchers is top priority for the Chinese leader- development of common-use quan- intended to enable synergies among ship. In particular, leaks by former tum computing prototypes, and the the expertise and experience of talent NSA contractor Edward Snowden manufacture of actual-use quantum across multiple disciplines in order to that revealed the extent of US intel- simulators. overcome current technical and engi- ligence capabilities and operations The National Key Research and neering obstacles. within China appear to have elevated Development Plan has provided Looking forward, the PLA recog- the perceived importance of quan- funding for a range of research di- nizes the disruptive potential of quantum technologies to national security. rections, and there is now sup- tum technologies, and the Chinese de- In the fall of 2013, just a few months port at the provincial level, with fense industry is actively pursuing after the leaks, Xi Jinping and other the new Anhui Quantum Science defense applications, in partnership Politburo members met with leading Industry Development Fund, which with academic institutions. As early as quantum physicist Pan Jianwei and in December 2017 announced plans 2015, Pan Jianwei claimed in an inter- viewed a demonstration of quantum to devote 10 billion RMB (nearly view, “China is completely capable of communications technologies, which $1.6 billion) in funding to quantum making full use of quantum commu- promise “absolute security,” even if technologies.10 The CMC Equipment nications in a local war. The direction that may prove chimeric in actuality. Development Department is also sup- of development in the future calls for Snowden has even been characterized porting research in quantum technol- using relay satellites to realize quan- ogies, including through the National tum communications and control that individuals with a primary role in the Defense Science and Technology Key covers the entire army.”11 in official Chinese media as one of two Laboratories Fund, which has provid- Within China Electronics Tech- agenda, along with Pan Jianwei him- ed funding for several projects involv- nology Corp., there are a number of re- self.scientific Since “drama” then, ofChinese China’s scientistsquantum ing quantum radar and sensing. search institutes involved in research have apparently had virtually unlimit- China’s pursuit of primacy in and development of quantum radars, ed resources at their disposal to pur- quantum science has extended to the which the PLA hopes could become sue their research. creation of new institutions to pur- - Indeed, the levels of interest in and sue cutting-edge research and devel- er planes with “remarkable potential” funding for quantum science under opment on these topics. In July 2017, the “nemesis” of today’s stealth fight national science and technology plans the Chinese Academy of Sciences es- 2017, the China Shipbuilding Industry have increased considerably. The 13th tablished the Quantum Information Corporationon the future (CSIC) battlefield. and the In NovemberUniversity Five-Year Plan (2016–2020) included and Quantum Science and Technology of Science and Technology of China quantum information science in the Innovation Research Institute. As of signed an agreement to establish

8 “ ‘Thirteenth Five-Year’ Plan Guidelines” [“十三五”规划纲要], Xinhua, March 18, 2016. 9 “Notice of the State Council on the Printing and Distribution of the Thirteenth Five-Year National Science and Technology Innovation Plan” [国务院关于印发”十三五”国家科技创新规划的通知], State Council, August 8, 2016, http://www.gov.cn/ zhengce/content/2016-08/08/content_5098072.htm. 10 “Quantum Control and Quantum Information Key Project 2017 Program Application Guidance” [“量子调控与量子信息”重点专项 2017 年度项目申报指南 f710b972426386489511b7f727f9.pdf; “10 billion RMB Anhui Quantum Science Industry Development Fund Starts Operations” [百亿元安徽量子科学产业发展基金启动运营], Ministry of Science], China and News Technology, Network, http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2016-10/11/5117251/files/9466 December 12, 2017, http://webcache.googleusercontent. com/search?q=cache:Yu9KlnNMrE0J:news.sina.com.cn/o/2017-12-12/doc-ifypnyqi4346545.shtml+&cd=4&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us. 11 Yu Dawei, “In China, Quantum Communications Comes of Age,” Caixin, February 6, 2015.

4 three joint laboratories focusing on ulation to experimentation and even, level. The Chinese leadership thus the development of quantum naviga- in some cases, initial implementation recognizes an opportunity to pursue tion, quantum communications, and in its attempts to advance defense in- ambitious megaprojects that devote quantum detection. According to a novation. While closely tracking and long-term, strategic investments to CSIC chief designer, next-generation seeking to learn from US defense in- these domains. submarines could be equipped with novation initiatives, Chinese defense Looking forward, the Chinese quantum navigation, while leveraging academics are starting to come to leadership sees an opportunity to quantum communications underwa- their own conclusions on the po- surpass the United States to lead in - tential changes in the character of these “strategic front-line” technolo- lution in submarine technologies.”12 gies, while pioneering new ways of Inter, the thus more reflecting distant “disruptivefuture, quantum revo introduction of AI and quantum tech- warfare that change paradigms of computing could enable attacks on conflict that could result from the military power to achieve a future de- the availability and integrity of the Across such emerging technolo- cisive strategic advantage. satellites and communications sys- gies,nologies the onChinese the future leadership battlefield. appears tems upon which modern warfare re- to recognize a critical opportunity. Elsa B. KANIA is an adjunct fellow with lies, in ways currently inconceivable. Whereas the United States initially the Center for a New American Security’s Technology and National Security possessed an undisputed military- Program. She focuses on Chinese defense technical advantage and pioneered innovation in emerging technologies in CONCLUSION information-centric ways of warfare, Beyond these technological dimen- the terrain of US-China technological global security initiatives at CNAS, where sions of military innovation, the PLA supportshe also ofacts the as artificial a member intelligence of the research and is also starting to progress from spec- and quantum technologies is far more Intelligence and National Security. competition in artificial intelligence team for the new Task Force on Artificial 12 “Expert: Disruptive Revolution for Next Generation Submarines” [专家：下一代潜艇颠覆性革命], China Defense Times, September 22, 2017, http://military.china.com/important/11132797/20170922/31499751_all.html.