Out of Gas

The end of the age of oil

David Goodstein

Th• End of the Age of Oil

Air Resources Board, November 30 , 2006 Energy Myths

– $3.00 a gallon is too much to pay – Oil companies produce oil. – We must conserve energy. – When we run out of oil, the marketplace will take over – There’s enough in the ground to last for hundreds of years. – Nuclear energy is dangerous. – The greenhouse effect and global warming are bad. A Brief History of Energy

Caloric Count Rumford (Sir Benjamin Thompson), 1753-1814

Many others Work converted to heat Credit James Prescott Joule, 1818-1889 4 Lbs.

The falling weight turns the• paddle wheel in the tank of water. As the wheel turns, the temperature of the water increases. Water filled tank Forms of Energy

Kinetic Organized Random (Temperature) Potential Gravitational Chemical Nuclear etc. Thermal Radiation

Visible

~ -0 = g ~ ~ l:i3

Radio Infrared Ultraviolet Frequency 30% reflected 70% absorbed 30% reflected Earthrise on the Moon 70% absorbed 30% reflected 70% absorbed

T = 255 K = -18 oC= 0 oF Earth’s Climate

• The tilted axis Earth’s Climate

• The tilted axis • The El Nio Cycle Earth’s Climate

• The tilted axis • The El Nio Cycle • The Thermohaline Flow r (

l

r

(

( Earth’s Climate The tilted axis The El Nio Cycle The Thermohaline Flow The Greenhouse Effect • • • • The Greenhouse Effect

(Preindustrial) From the Sun: 343 W/m2 Water vapor, methane, Carbon dioxide, etc.

88% Greenhouse

T = 287K= 14oC = 57oF

Feedback effects

Limiting cases 4 gllacial cycles recorded in the Vostok ice core

280

260 u ""O 240 3 4 < u n 220 O (I) 2 :J .200 IL.. a (11 E 2 Q) -4 Q) (1) e6 "'- ·I-C: -8 700

600 i::, ""Cla­ < 500 0 ....::i::: 400

0 50 1SO 200 250 300 350 400 .Age (ky·r BP)

J.R. Petit et at, Nature·, 3,99, 429.....36, 19·99. Sources of Useful Energy

Before 1800: Light from the Sun

Coal Oil seeps Swamp gas Nineteenth Century

Coal Whale Oil E. L. Drake, 1859, Titusville, PA. Illumination, Lubrication Fuel

WeWe cancan nono longerlonger livelive onon lightlight fromfrom thethe SunSun charts of distribution of proved 2001 Thousand million barrels% Thousand million barrels

1200 Europe 1.8% Asia Pacific 1000 4.2% North America 6.1% 800 Former Soviet Union 6.2% Africa 7.3%

S. & Cent. Middle America East 9.1% 65.3%

0 81 91 01

■ Middle East ■ Former Soviet Union

■ S. & Cent. America ■ North America ■ Rest of World bp statistical review of world energy 2002 M. King Hubbert

llltua 14 Jaaa.atifU&.U.W

' !:ii

' Hubbert’s analysis

Q = All the oil that’s been discovered

Q0 = All the oil that ever existed

At first, discovery grows exponentially

dQ/dt = aQ But exponential growth slows down when

Q is no longer small compared to Q0:

dQ/dt = aQ(Q0 –Q)

The Logistic Equation dQ/dt versus Q

800

700

600

,....., 500 -E --(/) Q) ..c: 400 (J -co 0 300 I I i I I I I I I I I I I 200 -----r··· - i I I I I I I I I I I 0 : : , I R e 2 p0 I yn . CpLJe

-----1l ------I' ----1------~------~------l------i----I I I I I 100 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I l I I I I I I I I I t I I I I I I I I I I 0 I t I l I I I 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 Available Biomass (mt) dQ/dt versus t

DIKE-- Ja:laaaiilU&.U.Mlz ' ' ..

ii I : I

1 ' dQ ae[( at0 −t )] = Q0 dt [1 + e[( at0 −t )] ]2 The Logistic Curve dQ dt

t Extrapolating the declining rate of increase

1 dQ = aQ( − Q) 1 dQ Qdt 0 Qdt

Q0 Q

Q0 for the U.S. was 150 billion barrels Fitting the data—Hubbert’s Peak Hubbert Curves

US Onshore Oil Production

10 9 8 7 Mb/d 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025

bp Reserves and Discovery

Oil Reserve Data

Proved Oil Reserves Annual Oil Discoveries 1200 60 Production 1000 50 OPEC

800 40

600 OPEC 30 bn bbls bn bbls bn 400 20 200

Non-OPEC 10 0 Non-OPEC 0

1980 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2003 bp Model Calculation

Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère Sci. Amer., 1998 Caution • Used 1.8 trillion • Technology = Discovery • Increasing price makes more available • “Reserve” numbers very soft • Basic idea is right Kenneth Deffeyes:

The Texas Railroad Commission announced a 100% allowable for next month

The San Francisco Chronicle, 1971 The New York Times, February 24, 2004

Forecast of Rising Oil Demand Challenges Tired Saudi Fields By JEFF GERTH

…the country's oil fields now are in decline, prompting industry and government officials to raise serious questions about whether the kingdom will be able to satisfy the world's thirst for oil in coming years. … Some economists are …optimistic that if oil prices rise high enough, advanced recovery techniques will be applied, averting supply problems.

But privately, some Saudi oil officials are less sanguine. Oil Users

• Petrochemicals • Stationary power plants • Home heating • Transportation Cars Trucks Planes

ShipsTrains Global Energy Consumption, 1998

_/ 4.52 5 rL-- - 4 2.96 - 2.7 ,L__ 3 ,c__

- TW 2 1.21 ,L_ 0.828 1 - ?-- 0.286 0.286 / - / /- I ... I ...- ~ 0 I I I I I I I Oil Gas Coal Hydro BiomassRenew Nuclear

Total: 12.8 TW U.S.: 3.3 TW (99 Quads) Fossil Fuels

Oil Natural gas Shale oil Methane hydrate Coal Coal

• Hundreds, maybe thousands years at present rate • Largest deposits in US • Can be liquified substitute oil But • Dirty (mercury, arsenic, sulfur) • Greenhouse effect • Increase rate x5 replace oil • Increasing population • Higher standard of living • Hubbert’s peak.—This century What does the future hold?

• Oil crisis very soon • Fossil fuel will run out • Unknown consequences for climate • Solar flux plus nuclear • Dilemma – Social, political – Technical Technological Fixes Greenhouse Effect Technological Fixes Greenhouse Effect

• Parasol at L1 Technological Fixes Greenhouse Effect

• Parasol at L1

• Sequester CO2 Solar Solar

•Hydro Solar

•Hydro • Wind Solar

•Hydro • Wind •Biomass Solar

•Hydro • Wind •Biomass •PV (10 TW = 220,000 km2) Solar

•Hydro • Wind •Biomass •PV (10 TW = 220,000 km2) Total Solar Flux = 20,000 x 10 TW Conservation (Amory Lovins, Rocky Mountain Institute) • Ultra light/strong materials • Hybrids • Efficient buildings, factories • Fuel from switchgrass, poplar, sugar cane • More efficient use electricity • Feebates •Etc. Nuclear Nuclear

• Geothermal Nuclear

• Geothermal

• Fission Nuclear

• Geothermal

• Fission (10 TW = 10,000 GW plants) Nuclear

• Geothermal

• Fission (10 TW = 10,000 GW plants) •Fusion Nuclear

• Geothermal

• Fission (10 TW = 10,000 GW plants) •Fusion (1 gallon sea water = 300 gallons gasoline) Transportation Transportation

• Advanced batteries • Hydrogen Transportation

• Advanced batteries • Hydrogen • Other fuels Transportation

• Advanced batteries • Hydrogen • Other fuels

We understand the basic principles

Prediction

Civilization as we know it will come to an end sometime in this century, when the fuel runs out. Stanford University GCEP Global Climate & Energy Project

Toyota, ExxonMobil, GE, and Schlumberger

Lynn Orr POWERING THE PLANET

Caltech’s Center for Sustainable Energy Research (CSER)

Harry Atwater, Harry Gray, Sossina Haile, Nathan Lewis, Jonas Peters

Steven Koonin at BP

Powering the Planet Out of Gas

The end of the age of oil

David Goodstein

Th• End of the Age of Oil