South – weekly market prices vam Fourth Week November 2020 food security analysis

Highlights

As compared to second week of November, the South Sudanese Pound (SSP) to United States Dollar (USD) depreciated from five to eleven percent in about two-third of monitored markets. On the parallel market, 1 USD was exchanged for a minimum of 550 SSP in Maban, , and a maximum of 630 SSP in Aniet (Agok), . In , the parallel rate stood at 590 SSP per 1 USD while the official exchange rate remains 176 SSP per 1 USD.

The retail price of white sorghum increased by 6 to 20% in Aniet, Aweil, Kapoeta, Kuajok, and Mingkaman as compared to the second week of November 2020. The observed price increase was attributed to the depreciation of the local currency. However, white sorghum prices dropped in Maban (20%) and Yida (13%) which could be linked to seasonal harvests coupled with the distribution of humanitarian food assistance to refugee populations in those areas.

The purchasing power of livestock dependent households increased in Juba (40%) and Kapoeta (8%) due to moderate increase in prices of livestock. The availability of pasture and water contributed to improved livestock body conditions and hence better livestock prices.

1 – weekly market prices vam South Sudan – weekly market prices food security analysis Fourth Week November 2020 Fourth Week November 2020

Exchange rate behavior

During the fourth week of November, 1 United States Dollar (USD) was exchanged for a minimum of 550 South Sudanese Pounds (SSP) to a maximum at SSP 630 in the parallel market across monitored markets.

Compared to the second week of November 2020, the SSP depreciated by 10% in Aweil and Maban, and by 11% in Aniet. Moreover, the local currency depreciated from 6 to 9% in , Yida, and Rubkona markets. The official exchange rate in Juba revolved around SSP 176 to the USD, and the parallel rate stood at 590, an appreciation of 2% compared to the second week of November.

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Fourth week November vs second week November

The retail prices of white sorghum increased in Aweil, Kapoeta, Kuajok, Mingkaman and Aniet markets, in a range of 6 to 20%, as compared to the second week of November 2020. The observed price increase, unusual during this harvest period, could be associated with the depreciation of the local currency, which has a negative effect on the price of fuel (and therefore transport) as well as on imported goods. White sorghum prices dropped in Maban (20%) and Yida (13%), in line with seasonal trends linked to availability of harvest. Moreover, the distribution of humanitarian food assistance to the refugee populations in those areas may have had a positive stabilizing effect on the cereal prices.

White sorghum fetched higher prices in Juba, Kapoeta, Mingkaman and Wau ranging from SSP 1000 to 1300 per a malua of 3.5 kg. In the remaining monitored markets, a malua of white sorghum fetched in the range of 500 (Maban) to 950 (Kuajok) markets.

Prices of imported items such as vegetable oil, wheat flour, rice and sugar have remained unchanged in many of the monitored markets, despite the depreciation of the SSP. This may be explained by the fact that the demand for these items is quite low, as the limited purchasing power of poor and very poor households forces them to concentrate their spending on staple cereals only.

The price of field beans (janjaro), the preferred pulse variety for most of South Sudan, remains very high forcing most consumers to resort to less-preferred commodities such as cowpeas. The cost of a kilogram of field beans could buy a minimum of 1.17 kg of cowpeas in Juba and a maximum of 3.77 kg in Aweil, where a kilogram of field beans costs SSP 700 while cowpeas SSP 186. The increased demand for this less preferred pulse determined a price increase of cowpeas in Juba, Mingkaman and Aniet, by 20%, 33% and 9% respectively, as compared to the second week of November 2020.

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Terms of Trade

Goat to cereal terms of trade: The purchasing power of livestock herders increased in Juba (40%) and Kapoeta (8%) due to a moderate increase in prices of livestock. The availability of pasture and water contributed to the improvement in livestock body conditions and hence better livestock prices. Terms of trade deteriorated in Aweil (16%) and Aniet (17%) markets due to an increase in white sorghum prices.

Wage to cereal terms of trade: A stable wage rate and high food prices led the terms of trade to deteriorate in Aweil, Mingkaman, Kuajok and Aniet, ranging from 5 to 17% as compared to the second week of November 2020. The terms of trade in Juba, and Rumbek remain unchanged due to stable food prices accompanied by stable daily wage rate of unskilled non- agriculture labor.

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Price trends - as compared to 2019 and to the five-year (2015-2019) average

As compared to the fourth week of November 2019, white sorghum prices increased the minimum by 100% in Juba, Aweil, Yida, Kuajok and Kapoeta markets. Similarly, prices of other food items such as wheat flour, maize flour, red beans, vegetable oil and sugar witnessed sharp increase across markets. Terms of trade between goat and white sorghum showed mixed behavior depending on the relative percentage increases. Goat to sorghum terms of trade deteriorated in Aweil (49%), Kuajok (48%), Torit (18%) and Yida (11%). However, the terms of trade improved in Kapoeta and Rumbek as the magnitude of increase in goat prices outweighed increase in sorghum prices.

Compared to the five-year average, white sorghum prices increased by higher than 200% in Aweil, Kapoeta, Juba, Kuajok and Yida markets. Mingkaman and Rumbek experienced relatively lower price increase in white sorghum, by 45% and 86%, respectively. Wheat flour field beans, maize flour prices increased by higher than 100% as compared to the five-year average. Goat to white sorghum terms of trade dropped in Aweil, Kuajok and Torit, ranging 13-54%, while terms of trade improved in Kapoeta, Mingkaman, Juba and Rumbek, from 39-177% mainly due to increase in goat prices more than an increase in sorghum prices. South Sudan – weekly market prices vam Fourth Week November 2020 food security analysis

Juba market prices

Percent changes

Unit Mar -W3 Nov- W2 Nov-W4 Nov W4 Vs Mar W3 Nov W4 vs W2 Maize Flour KG 250 450 450 80% 0% White sorghum (feterita) 3.5KG 500 1000 1000 100% 0% White maize (Grain) KG 600 1000 1000 67% 0% Wheat flour KG 250 500 550 120% 10% Rice KG 400 500 750 88% 50%

Cowpea 3.5 KG 1,100 2500 3,000 173% 20% Broad beans (foul el masri ) KG 1,000 2000 1,450 45% -28% Beans (janjaro ) KG 600 1000 1,000 67% 0% Meat (Beef) KG 1,500 2400 3,000 100% 25% Sugar KG 220 500 500 127% 0% Vegetable Oil KG 400 900 1,200 200% 33%

Goat to white sorghum # malua 50 35.0 49.0 -2% 40% Wage to white sorghum # malua 3 3 3 0% 0%

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Fourth week of November vs. second week of November

Cereals Aweil Juba Torit Kapoeta Rumbek Mingkaman Maban Malakal Yida Rubkona Kuajok Aniet Maize Flour 0% 0% 20% 11% -17% 0% 0% 0% 0% White sorghum (feterita) 6% 0% 10% 0% 20% -20% -13% 0% 6% 15% Brown Sorghum(Local) 6% 0% 0% -20% -20% 0% 0% 6% White maize (Grain) 14% 0% 0% 0% Wheat flour 0% 10% -20% 11% -12% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -7% Rice 0% 50% -14% 0% 0% 0% 33% 0% 0% 7% 0% Other Food Cowpeas 0% 20% 0% 33% 0% 0% 0% 0% 9% Broad beans(Foul el masri ) 0% -28% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Beans (Janjaro ) 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Meat (Beef) 0% 25% 0% 9% 7% 0% 0% 20% 0% 0% 6% 0% Sugar 0% 0% -10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% -8% 45% Vegetable Oil 0% 33% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 4% Salt 0% 25% 0% 0% 0% 20% 0% 0% 0% 0% 11%

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Post-COVID-19 measures – fourth week of November vs. third week of March

Cereals Aweil Juba Wau Torit Kapoeta Rumbek Mingkaman Maban Malakal Yida Rubkona Kuajok Aniet Maize Flour 50% 80% 50% 150% 167% 67% 50% 68% 57% Sorghum Flour 61% 67% 67% White sorghum (feterita) 124% 100% 0% 33% 0% 180% 67% 111% 36% Brown Sorghum(Local) 130% -33% 129% 90% White maize (Grain) 67% 40% 129% -17% 67% Wheat flour 73% 120% 100% 67% 38% 63% 40% 60% 100% 71% 71% 63% Rice 40% 88% 100% 67% 50% 50% 60% 60% 100% 100% 88% 40% Other Food Cowpea 8% 173% 189% 56% 85% Broad beans(Foul el masri ) 17% 45% -29% -50% 50% 100% 44% Beans (Janjaro ) 17% 67% 75% 140% -10% 30% 26% 64% Meat (Beef) 0% 100% 100% 25% 80% 60% 20% 0% -13% 13% 25% Sugar 67% 127% 105% 186% 100% 67% 20% 20% 50% 222% 57% 100% Vegetable Oil 25% 200% 60% 100% -23% 67% 40% -40% 50% 25% 67% 125% Salt 17% 114% 25% 100% 0% 25% 100% 150% Terms of Trade Goat to white sorghum -56% -2% 12% -20% 115% 97% 225% -54% -46% -48% 53% Wage to white sorghum -55% 0% -5% -47% 33% -17% 0% 20% -46% -40% -53% 3%

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