HURRICANE LESSONS UNLEARNED

Tropical Storm Debbie and Hurricane Isaac are examples of how we do not have the ability to predict with certainty the effects of tropical systems. Computer models can be helpful, but only if interpreted by experienced people who know the local area. Many officials were surprised by Hurricane Isaac’s surge.

Since in 1985 we should not be surprised. We now have a long list of weak storms or strong storms that have hit far away but have flooded us with both and heavy rainfall.

We live on a subsiding delta which has allowed the Gulf waters to get 20 to 30 miles closer to the communities of south and resulted in the increasing effects of hurricane surge. As more open water appears near our communities, hurricane winds are given more opportunity to move that water into those communities. Every community in coastal Louisiana has to contend with that increased risk.

Another reason we should not be surprised is that past hurricanes inform us of the possibilities we now face. The hurricane of September 29, 1915 was different from Isaac in that it was a powerful storm, but its track had similarities to Isaac when it hit the coast. The 1915 storm caused major flooding in the western Pontchartrain Basin which is not far from the present community of Laplace.

Although we cannot predict precisely what a hurricane will do, we do have enough information and history to better prepare before the storm hits. Too many times officials talk of lessons learned after a storm. In many cases it is because they did not know much before the storm. That should never be the case.

Windell A. Curole General Manager South Lafourche District (985) 852‐2084 Rev.09OCT.2012 TLC‐10/9/2012