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Greek Market Overview and Prospects

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Greek Market Overview and Prospects GREEKGREEK MARKETMARKET OVERVIEWOVERVIEW ANDAND PROSPECTSPROSPECTS 5th Greek Sal. Oppenheim Investment Conference April 17th –18th, 2008 MERIT Securities S.A., Research & Analysis Department 38 Vasileos Konstantinou str., 11635, Tel: 36 71 800, Fax: 36 71 830, e-mail: [email protected] Emmanuel J. Varsos [email protected], Dionyssios J. Leftakis [email protected] Kostas N. Glykas [email protected], Marios V. Theofanopoulos [email protected], Mihail I. Fragkopoulos [email protected], Irene E. Kagianni [email protected], Chris A. Samothrakis [email protected] 1 ASE GENERAL INDEX 2007-2008 2007 (17.8%) 2008 (-20.4%) (30.3%) This technical graph shows the performance of the ASE General Index from the beginning of 2007 until recently, giving a picture of the aggressive fall of the Index and the immediate impact of the subprime crisis on the Greek market. The General Index was recording losses of -27.4% from its levels at the end of 2007 until the recent rebound of most capital markets, which contained year to date losses to -20.4%. The question raised here, is whether the market at these levels should be considered undervalued after having lost more than 1000 points or not. 2 ASE GENERAL INDEX 1990-2008 In this graph we address the same question raised in the previous slide looking at the Index in retrospect from the day of its initiation until now. Direct comparison with the asset price bubble of the year 1999 offers great insight. The bear market that followed lasted for approximately 3 full years (2000-2002) and left the General Index at around 1.500 points. The next five years from 2003-2007 have consistently rewarded investors with significantly positive returns. After reaching close to 1999 levels, again the index lost a significant portion of its value and is currently amid what has come to be called a bear market rally. In our view the market right now is, at best, fairly valued. 3 ASE GENERAL INDEX 2002-2007 2003‐2007 (202.26%) 2007 (17.9%) 2006 (23%) 2005 (31.5%) 2004 (23.1%) 2003 (29.5%) Here we examine the five “bull” years of the Greek market in more detail. The graph depicts returns realized for the years 2003- 2007. During these 5 years the General Index consistently posted positive growth. The compounded annual return on a portfolio replicating the Greek Index for these 5 years stands at 24.9%. This means that €100 invested on 01/01/2003 would grow to €304 on 31/12/2007. This significant reversal from the bear market years of 2000-2002 can be attributed to strong growth in Greece and the significant expansion of the Greek companies to the Balkan area. 4 MERIT TOP 20 2008 The table above shows the performance of MERIT’s TOP 20 portfolio from the beginning of 2008, compared to the ATHEX General Index. Until now our index has been lagging in year to date return. We are confident however, that our active portfolio strategy will bear fruits by the end of 2008 as always . We began the year with a more value oriented approach ensuring that we would stay close to our benchmark in light of what proved to be one of the worst 1st quarters for most financial markets around the globe. Currently we have been restructuring the composition once more applying our stock picking strategy in locating several companies trading at, what in our view constitutes, a deep discount. Such a case would be Kalpinis S.A. who was recently reinstated in our top selections on the back of very attractive multiples after having sustained significant losses up to that point. We expect this strategy to pay out and position us above ASE especially if we see a positive reaction of the markets in H2, an environment that would highly favor quality growth companies. 5 2008 EUROPEAN RETURNS Performance of the European capital markets for the first 3 months of 2008 was rather poor albeit expected after the breakout of the U.S subprime crisis in late 2007. This map gives an accurate picture of the current situation and additionally serves as an argument against the decoupling theory expressed early during the crisis. Year to date loss for the ASE GENERAL INDEX has reached -21%% and is among the highest in Europe . Note, however, the strong correlation that has developed among the wider Balkan area markets, which currently is the only region in Europe recording losses in excess of 20%. As the outlook for the Balkans’ economic prospects has been trimmed due to international developments and Greece’s substantial exposure in these countries, the ATHEX Index has sustained significant pressure. Yet, as the only developed market in the area, its losses have been contained to a minimum relative to its neighbors. 6 MERIT TOP 20 2007 For 2007, Merit’s TOP 20 marked a total return of 44.76% beating the General Index by as much as 28%. Best performer for the year was SPRIDER STORES S.A. realizing an impressive 247% total return. We recall that SPRIDER is one of our lagging picks currently in our 2008 portfolio. We expect however, that the situation will be drastically reversed as the Company’s track record of both value and fundamental growth provide sound basis for such an assumption. At this point we suggest taking a look at the Appendix were our 2005 and 2006 Top 20 slides are located to follow through Sprider’s performance for those years. This case is indicative of our argument earlier that through this crisis a number of companies have emerged as greatly undervalued. Once again we stress the importance of stock picking, especially in an environment of uncertainty, in order to avoid excessive lossesor even realize descent returns. 7 2007 EUROPEAN RETURNS INDEX NAME COUNTRY TICKER 2008 RETURN PFTS Index UKRAINE PFTSEU 135.34% Slovenian Total Market SLOVENIA SVSMEU 78.13% CROATIA ZAGREB CROBEX CROATIA CROEU 63.17% SOFIX INDEX BULGARIA SOFIXEU 44.42% BELEXline Index SERBIA BELEXLINEU 44.12% ISE NATIONAL 100 INDEX TURKEY XU100EU 41.01% GENERAL MARKET INDEX CSE CYPRUS CYSMMAPAEU 23.60% DAX INDEX GERMANY DAXEU 22.29% BUCHAREST BET INDEX ROMANIA BETEU 22.05% RUSSIAN RTS INDEX $ RUSSIA RTSI$EU 19.18% ASE GENERAL INDEX GREECE ASEEU 17.86% PRAGUE STOCK EXCH INDEX CZECH REPUB. PXEU 14.24% OBX STOCK INDEX NORWAY OBXEU 13.65% LUXEMBOURG LuxX INDEX LUXEMBOURG LUXXXEU 11.13% IBEX 35 INDEX SPAIN IBEXEU 7.32% SLOVAK SHARE INDEX SLOVAKIA SKSMEU 7.23% BUDAPEST STOCK EXCH INDX HUNGARY BUXEU 5.60% WSE WIG 20 INDEX POLAND WIG20EU 5.19% OMX COPENHAGEN 20 INDEX DENMARK KFXEU 5.13% OMX VILNIUS INDEX LITHUANIA VILSEEU 4.38% AMSTERDAM EXCHANGES INDX NETHERLANDS AEXEU 4.12% FTSE 100 INDEX UK UKXEU 3.80% OMX HELSINKI 25 INDEX FINLAND HEX25EU 3.42% MALTA STOCK EXCHANGE IND MALTA MALTEXEU 1.32% CAC 40 INDEX FRANCE CACEU 1.31% AUSTRIAN TRADED ATX INDX AUSTRIA ATXEU 1.11% OMX Iceland 15 Index ICELAND ICEXI15EU -1.72% SWISS MARKET INDEX SWITZERLAND SMIEU -3.43% OMX STOCKHOLM 30 INDEX SWEDEN OMXEU -5.74% BEL20 INDEX BELGIUM BEL20EU -5.95% PORTUGAL PSI-20 INDEX PORTUGAL PSI20EU -6.00% S&P/MIB INDEX ITALY SPMIBEU -6.95% OMX RIGA INDEX LATVIA RIGSEEU -9.19% OMX TALLINN INDEX ESTONIA TALSEEU -13.29% IRISH OVERALL INDEX IRELAND ISEQEU -26.29% In contrast to the map presented earlier, 2007 was a year of positive returns for the majority of European markets. Greece ranked 11th in terms of total return with the Index gaining 17.9%. Again we see how Balkan countries find themselves over performing and in correlation with each other, ranking at the top positions in terms of returns. Greece once more performs more modestly than the rest of the region lagging in gains as well as in losses (recall the 2008 map). 8 FTSE 20 2002-2007 2003‐2007 (217.80%) 2007 (15.8%) 2006 (21.5%) 2005 (30.5%) 2004 (32.3%) 2003 (34.3%) The above graph depicts the yearly performance for the FTSE20 Index. This index includes the 20 largest companies in Greece as measured by market capitalization. Overall, the compound annual rate of return on a portfolio replicating the FTSE20 Index stands at 26.7%. This means that €100 invested at 01/01/2003 would grow at €326 at 31/12/2007. This return is higher than that of the General Index and shows that the firms comprising the FTSE20 have driven growth among Greek companies especially for the first couple of years under examination. When we compare individual annual returns, we notice that the FTSE20 has outperformed significantly the General Index for the years 2003-2004. 9 FTSE MID CAP 2002-2007 2003‐2007 2007 (235.82%) (19.4%) 2006 (54.5%) 2004 2005 (‐2.8%) (47.1%) 2003 (30.3%) The above graph depicts the yearly performance for the FTSE Mid Cap Index. This index includes the 40 largest companies in Greece by market capitalization after the top 20 companies that are included in the FTSE 20 Index. Overall, the FTSE Mid Cap has posted the strongest growth for the years 2003-2007 when compared to the ASE Index and the FTSE20 Index. The compound annual return on a portfolio replicating this index for the years 2003-2007 would be 28%. This means that €100 invested at 01/01/2003 would grow to €344 at 31/12/2007. However, we should note the greater variability of returns for the FTSE Mid Cap, as evidenced by the negative return of -2.8% for 2004 and how this index underperformed relative to the FTSE 20 for 2003 and 2004.
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