October 7, 2017 Turning Georgia Blue! a Grassroots Plan
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
Sponsored by Georgia Engaged and Intown Indivisible Groups October 7, 2017 Turning Georgia Blue! A Grassroots Plan October 7, 2017, Turning Georgia Blue! Flipping Georgia’s State-Level House & Senate Districts Meeting Notes Purpose The purpose of this meeting was to learn about which state-level districts in Georgia will be the most “flippable” in 2017 Special Elections (and a preview of which will be most flippable in 2018), and to discuss how Indivisible and other grassroots groups can be most effectively engaged in these elections. Welcome and Introduction Meeting organizers welcomed participants and provided a general overview of meeting topics, which included: 1. The importance of state legislative elections 2. Which districts are the most flippable from Republican to Democratic, and, 3. Ideas about how participants can engage in elections. Why State Districts Matter (and Why We Have Reason to be Hopeful!) Jina Sanone is Founder and President of www.HerTerm.org, an organization dedicated to building progressive female leadership and electing women to state office. 1. Introduction. a. Current percentages of women who hold office in the state of Georgia: i. Statewide office (e.g. the office of governor, secretary of state, etc.) – 0 percent, which is below the average of 24 percent for the U.S. ii. General Assembly (the Georgia Senate and House of Representatives)—26 percent, which is about average for the U.S. b. In the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, Georgia is represented by 16 seats; only one seat is held by a woman. i. Karen Handel, a Republican, represents the 6th Congressional District. c. It is critical for women to be involved in the government as decision-makers—they are 50 percent of the population and have had different life experiences than men. d. Women do not tend to run for office; it is harder for them to win and many do not have the confidence. e. HerTerm is a non-profit organization with a mission to help women be elected to state office. 2. Background: trends in Georgia. 1 Sponsored by Georgia Engaged and Intown Indivisible Groups October 7, 2017 Turning Georgia Blue! A Grassroots Plan a. Based on recent voting trends, 2018 is likely be a wave election and Georgia should be part of it. i. The renewed energy of the Democratic base in response to the national political environment and the higher percentage of Democratic voters participating in recent elections are favorable signs. b. Currently, Democrats hold no statewide offices; in the General Assembly, they hold 38 percent of the Senate and 34 percent of the House. 3. Why state districts matter. a. Reasons to focus on state offices include the following. i. State policies have a significant effect on daily lives of citizens. 1. State budgets. 2. Education and public schools. 3. Medical care, e.g. if Medicaid was expanded as part of the Affordable Care Act. 4. Transportation. 5. Bad legislation, including gun laws such as the campus carry legislation passed in 2016. ii. Legislative maps for state and federal districts are drawn by the state legislature. 1. TO INFLUENCE FEDERAL CONGRESSIONAL RACES, DEMOCRATS MUST CONTROL THE STATE LEGISLATURE! iii. State campaigns are smaller; volunteers matter and candidates are more accessible. 1. Districts and vote totals tend to be smaller. 2. Citizens often to have more influence in a state election than in a federal election. iv. Money—flippable state campaigns cost less; although if the district is heavily Republican, probably no amount of money will make a difference. 1. Flippable state Senate campaigns cost about $300 K. 2. Flippable state House campaigns cost about $100 K. 3. In contrast, flippable U.S. House of Representatives campaigns cost about $1.6 M. 4. Down-ballot races (e.g. Public Service Commission) cost about $1 M, because the campaign is statewide. 5. Races for state governor cost $10 M-$20 M. a. In general, competitive races cost more than non-competitive ones. 6. In statewide office campaigns, candidates fund much of their own campaign b. In Georgia, 80 percent of legislative seats go uncontested, compared to a national average of 38 percent. i. It is important to field candidates, even in a district where Democrats are unlikely to win because a Democratic candidate can do the following. 1. A candidate can bring out the vote for another, statewide candidate even if a specific Democrat does not win a state House or Senate seat. a. E.g., when the voter comes out to vote for their House or Senate candidate, they might also vote for a Democratic candidate for governor. 2. An opponent can make the Republican candidate spend campaign money, possibly spreading limited funding over more races. 3. Opponents demonstrate that incumbents have opposition. 2 Sponsored by Georgia Engaged and Intown Indivisible Groups October 7, 2017 Turning Georgia Blue! A Grassroots Plan 4. Candidates help get the Democratic message out to the public. 4. A further word about redistricting and gerrymandering in Georgia. a. By law, national redistricting will take place in after the 2020 census; for this reason, it is important to elect a Democratic governor who can influence the resulting maps. b. The Georgia General Assembly passes a small redistricting bill almost every year to ensure that existing Republican seats stay within the party. c. In 2015, the General Assembly adjusted some districts; in 2016, Georgia Engaged was prepared and worked with volunteers to “pause” redistricting for Districts 105 and 111. i. The General Assembly will attempt to adjust districts again this year. Georgia’s Most Flippable Districts Leslie Small represents Georgia Engaged, a partnership of progressive C4 public policy, advocacy, and grassroots organizing groups. Georgia Engaged is the Georgia chapter of America Votes, which has been gathering, tracking, and sharing district-level data for many years. 1. Introduction. a. Through collective action, Georgia Engaged strives to do the following: i. Create progressive social change in Georgia through deeper issue awareness and voter engagement, ii. Encourage voters to advocate for progressive issues and policies, and, iii. Encourage voters to elect progressive candidates and hold elected officials accountable. 2. Georgia Engaged is currently focused on 2017 special elections for Georgia General Assembly seats. 3. Recent special election results and future projections. a. Nationally, if Democrats outperform 2016 election results by about 14 points, they will likely take back the U.S. House of Representatives. i. In Georgia, some of this projected result is due to national politics and the dislike of President Trump, but much is because of demographic changes in individual districts. ii. Some voters have the choice of a Democratic candidate for the first time in many years. b. In individual states across the country, Democrats have won eight 2017 special elections for state legislative seats in traditionally Republican districts. i. In 2017 Georgia special elections for state Senate seats, Democrats lost but outperformed expectations. c. Future 2017 Georgia special election schedule includes the following dates. i. First round voting on November 7. 1. A simple majority (over 50 percent of the vote) wins. ii. A second-round runoff vote will be conducted on December 5 if no single candidate gets a majority of votes on November 7. 1. Runoff candidates will be the two first-round candidates with the highest vote totals. 3 Sponsored by Georgia Engaged and Intown Indivisible Groups October 7, 2017 Turning Georgia Blue! A Grassroots Plan 4. Competitive 2017 Georgia special elections include the following. a. State Senate. i. District 6 – most competitive. ii. District 39. b. State House. i. District 26. ii. District 60. iii. District 89. iv. District 117 – most competitive. v. District 119 – most competitive. 5. Characteristics of the most competitive 2017 special election districts include the following. a. State Senate District 6. i. The district is in Cobb and Fulton counties, is 70 percent Caucasian, educated, affluent, and relatively young (77 percent of voters are between the ages of 25 and 49). 1. District 6 is traditionally Republican, but 55 percent voted for Clinton in 2016. ii. The district was redrawn in 2011 to be Republican, but is reverting to be Democratic because people are moving into the district for high-tech jobs. iii. If Democrats can win this seat, it will end the Republican supermajority in the Senate. iv. Democrats can win without a runoff if we can consolidate votes among the three Democratic candidates. 1. Jaha Howard. a. Note: during the week after this meeting, anti-gay Facebook posts by Howard were discovered and all LGBTQ groups withdrew their endorsement. 2. Jen Jordan. 3. Taos Wynn. v. Candidates cannot simply be told not to run; Democrats must be strategic in offering options and alternatives to create a career ladder for candidates. 1. Democratic candidates should be able to move up the ranks with City Council or School Board seats. vi. District 6 is traditionally more competitive in election years; Democrats have an opportunity with this special election. b. State House District 117. i. The district includes the Athens area, is 77 percent Caucasian, college educated, but not as affluent as Senate District 6. ii. Debora Gonzalez is the single Democratic candidate; in 2016 there was no Democratic challenger. iii. The district was redrawn in 2011 to be Republican, but is reverting to be Democratic with new voters moving there. 1. However, moderate Democrats may vote Republican in the upcoming elections. 2. Important issues could include campus carry. 4 Sponsored by Georgia Engaged and Intown Indivisible Groups October 7, 2017 Turning Georgia Blue! A Grassroots Plan iv. In 2016, Republican Regina Quick won against an incumbent that was very conservative and made an inflammatory statement about women.