A Numerical Study on Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Vicente
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Rapid Intensification of a Sheared Tropical Storm
OCTOBER 2010 M O L I N A R I A N D V O L L A R O 3869 Rapid Intensification of a Sheared Tropical Storm JOHN MOLINARI AND DAVID VOLLARO Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York (Manuscript received 10 February 2010, in final form 28 April 2010) ABSTRACT A weak tropical storm (Gabrielle in 2001) experienced a 22-hPa pressure fall in less than 3 h in the presence of 13 m s21 ambient vertical wind shear. A convective cell developed downshear left of the center and moved cyclonically and inward to the 17-km radius during the period of rapid intensification. This cell had one of the most intense 85-GHz scattering signatures ever observed by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). The cell developed at the downwind end of a band in the storm core. Maximum vorticity in the cell exceeded 2.5 3 1022 s21. The cell structure broadly resembled that of a vortical hot tower rather than a supercell. At the time of minimum central pressure, the storm consisted of a strong vortex adjacent to the cell with a radius of maximum winds of about 10 km that exhibited almost no tilt in the vertical. This was surrounded by a broader vortex that tilted approximately left of the ambient shear vector, in a similar direction as the broad precipitation shield. This structure is consistent with the recent results of Riemer et al. The rapid deepening of the storm is attributed to the cell growth within a region of high efficiency of latent heating following the theories of Nolan and Vigh and Schubert. -
Rapid Intensification of DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0134.1 Hurricanes Is Particularly Problematic
WILL GLOBAL WARMING MAKE HURRICANE FORECASTING MORE DIFFICULT? KERRY EMANUEL As the climate continues to warm, hurricanes may intensify more rapidly just before striking land, making hurricane forecasting more difficult. ince 1971, tropical cyclones have claimed about cyclone damage, rising on average 6% yr–1 in inflation- 470,000 lives, or roughly 10,000 lives per year, and adjusted U.S. dollars between 1970 and 2015 (CRED S caused 700 billion U.S. dollars in damages globally 2016). Thus, appreciable increases in forecast skill and/ (CRED 2016). Mortality is strongly dominated by a or decreases of vulnerability, for example, through small number of extremely lethal events; for example, better preparedness, building codes, and evacuation just three storms caused more than 56% of the tropical procedures, will be required to avoid increases in cyclone–related deaths in the United States since 1900. cyclone-related casualties. Tropical cyclone mortality and injury have been Unfortunately, there has been little improvement reduced by improved forecasts and preparedness, espe- in tropical cyclone intensity forecasts over the period cially in developed countries (Arguez and Elsner 2001; from 1990 to the present (DeMaria et al. 2014). While Peduzzi et al. 2012), but through much of the world hurricane track forecasts using numerical prediction this has been offset by large changes in coastal popula- models have steadily improved, there has been only tions. For example, Peduzzi et al. (2012) estimate that slow improvement in forecasts of intensity by these the global population exposed to tropical cyclone same models. Reasons for this include stiff resolu- hazards increased by almost threefold between 1970 tion requirements for the numerical simulations of and 2010, and they project this trend to continue for tropical cyclone intensity (Rotunno et al. -
MEMBER REPORT Hong Kong, China
MEMBER REPORT Hong Kong, China ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee 12th Integrated Workshop Jeju, Republic of Korea 30 October – 3 November 2017 CONTENTS I. Overview of tropical cyclones which have affected/impacted Member’s area since the last Committee Session 1. Meteorological Assessment (highlighting forecasting issues/impacts) 2. Hydrological Assessment (highlighting water-related issues/impact) 3. Socio-Economic Assessment (highlighting socio-economic and DRR issues/impacts) 4. Regional Cooperation Assessment (highlighting regional cooperation success and challenges) II. Summary of progress in priorities supporting Key Result Areas 1. Tropical cyclone surveillance flights 2. Enhancement of meteorological observation over the South China Sea 3. Extended outlook on tropical cyclone track probability 4. Communication of information for strengthening resilience of communities against typhoon-related disasters 5. System and product development to support tropical cyclone operation 6. Community version of “Short-range Warning of Intense Rainstorms in Localized Systems” (SWIRLS) 7. Mesoscale and high-resolution regional prediction systems for tropical cyclones 8. Commemoration of the 100th anniversary of numbered tropical cyclone signal system in Hong Kong 9. Typhoon Committee Research Fellowship I. Overview of tropical cyclones which have affected/impacted Member’s area since the last Committee Session 1. Meteorological Assessment (highlighting forecasting issues/impacts) Seven tropical cyclones affected Hong Kong, China from 1 January to 31 October 2017 (tracks as shown in Figure 1 and position errors of forecasts issued by the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) in Table 1): Severe Tropical Storm Merbok (1702) in June, Tropical Strom Roke (1707) in July, Super Typhoon Hato (1713) and Severe Tropical Storm Pakhar (1714) in quick succession over a 5-day period in late August, Severe Tropical Storm Mawar (1716), a tropical depression over the South China Sea in September and Severe Typhoon Khanun (1720) in October. -
Investigation and Prediction of Hurricane Eyewall
INVESTIGATION AND PREDICTION OF HURRICANE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES By Matthew Sitkowski A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences) at the UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON 2012 Date of final oral examination: 4/9/12 The dissertation is approved by the following members of the Final Oral Committee: James P. Kossin, Affiliate Professor, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Daniel J. Vimont, Professor, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Steven A. Ackerman, Professor, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Jonathan E. Martin, Professor, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Gregory J. Tripoli, Professor, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences i Abstract Flight-level aircraft data and microwave imagery are analyzed to investigate hurricane secondary eyewall formation and eyewall replacement cycles (ERCs). This work is motivated to provide forecasters with new guidance for predicting and better understanding the impacts of ERCs. A Bayesian probabilistic model that determines the likelihood of secondary eyewall formation and a subsequent ERC is developed. The model is based on environmental and geostationary satellite features. A climatology of secondary eyewall formation is developed; a 13% chance of secondary eyewall formation exists when a hurricane is located over water, and is also utilized by the model. The model has been installed at the National Hurricane Center and has skill in forecasting secondary eyewall formation out to 48 h. Aircraft reconnaissance data from 24 ERCs are examined to develop a climatology of flight-level structure and intensity changes associated with ERCs. Three phases are identified based on the behavior of the maximum intensity of the hurricane: intensification, weakening and reintensification. -
Author's Response
Response to Reviewer 1 We thank reviewer 1 for the valuable suggestions. In this revised version, we have made changes according to the suggestions and comments and highlighted where those changes are made. The point-by-point replies to the comments are below. General comments: In general, the MS is well prepared and written. After minor revision, I recommend the immediate publication of the paper considering that another similar typhoon Mangkhut (No 1822) occurred in 2018, which again affected the Macau city. These two cases could be inter-compared to explore many interesting phenomena and physical insights to help the local government to do a better countermeasure against such typhoon disasters. Author’s response: Thank you for your encouraging comments. Your suggestion of making comparison between Typhoon Hato (2017) and Typhoon Mangkhut (2018) is very important. Both Typhoons were rare and record-breaking events in terms of their extreme wind speeds and wide- spreading coastal flooding they caused in the Pearl River Delta region. Actually, immediately after Typhoon Mangkhut (2018), some of our co-authors did another post-typhoon field survey and obtained the first-hand flood parameters in the same area in Macau. The comparison between these two typhoons and their associated physical phenomena is on-going and will be discussed in a future paper. Comment 1: Lines 70-73. This is an interesting point. In general, the maximum storm surge occurs before the typhoon landfall. Hence, the worst scenario is the high tide occurs several hours before the typhoon landing. Ref.: Lai, F., Liu, H. (2017) Wave setup properties in the surge-wave coupled simulation: A case study of Typhoon Khanun. -
A Preliminary Observational Study of Hurricane Eyewall Mesovortices
AA PreliminaryPreliminary ObservationalObservational StudyStudy ofof HurricaneHurricane EyewallEyewall MesovorticesMesovortices Brian D. McNoldy and Thomas H. Vonder Haar Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University e-mail: [email protected] ABSTRACT SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS The observational study of fine-scale features in A series of recent case studies will be presented that demonstrate the existence of mesovortices, vortex mergers, polygonal eyewalls, and vortex crystals. All cases were collected from the GOES-8 geosynchronous satellite centered over 0°N 75°W. Some cases were taken from “Normal Operations”, meaning images are taken every 15 or 30 minutes (depending on location). In special cases, the satellite images the storm every seven minutes; this is called “Rapid Scan Operations”. Finally, in high- the eye and eyewall of intense tropical cyclones (TC) priority situations, images can be taken every minute; this is called “Super Rapid Scan Operations”. has been made possible with high temporal and spatial To view loops of all the cases using the highest temporal resolution available, visit http://thor.cira.colostate.edu/tropics/eyewall/. The following four cases are small excerpts from the full loops. resolution imagery from geosynchronous satellites. The current Geosynchronous Operational Environmental BRET, 22Aug99 (1845Z-2010Z) ALBERTO, 12Aug00 (1445Z-1915Z) Satellite (GOES) Series is capable of producing 1-km resolution visible images every minute, resulting in an immense dataset which can be used to study convective cloud tops as well as transient low-level cloud swirls. Computer models have shown that vorticity redistribution in the core of a TC can result in the formation of local vorticity maxima, or mesovortices. -
Lightning Activity in Tropical Cyclones in the South-West Indian Ocean
XV International Conference on Atmospheric Electricity, 15-20 June 2014, Norman, Oklahoma, U.S.A. Lightning activity in tropical cyclones in the South-West Indian ocean Christophe Bovalo1;2 and Christelle Barthe1∗ 1Laboratoire de l’Atmosphere` et des Cyclones (LACy) – CNRS - Universite´ de La Reunion´ - Met´ eo-France,´ Saint-Denis, La Reunion,´ France 2Now at Laboratoire d’Aerologie´ (LA) – CNRS - Universite´ de Toulouse, Toulouse, France ABSTRACT: Lightning activity is investigated within tropical convective events of the South-West Indian Ocean (SWIO). The World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) provides global lightning data since 2005 and is therefore a well suited network for the study of systems like tropical cyclones as they remain over ocean most of their life. Firstly, a 7-year lightning climatology over the South West Indian Ocean has been performed using the WWLLN data from 2005 to 2011. Results show the same main features presented in other studies: the ”hot spots” in this region are found in Madagascar and over the Great Lakes in East Africa (> 10-20 fl. km−2 yr−1). Lightning flashes within tropical cyclones represent 50% to 100% of the total lightning activity in some oceanic areas (between 10◦S and 20◦S). Moreover, lightning activity is more intense during the November-to-April period which corresponds to the wet/cyclonic season. Then, lightning activity in tropical storms of the basin was studied using both WWLLN data and best- tracks from the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center La Reunion´ from January 2005 to May 2013. The South-West Indian Ocean is divided into three distinct regions (open ocean, Mozambique channel, and the oceanic region 400 km offshore the eastern coast of Madagascar) to account for the impact of land on the tropical storm structure. -
Examining Tropical Cyclone Structure and Intensification with The
NOVEMBER 2017 M A R T I N E Z E T A L . 4401 Examining Tropical Cyclone Structure and Intensification with the FLIGHT1 Dataset from 1999 to 2012 JONATHAN MARTINEZ AND MICHAEL M. BELL Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado JONATHAN L. VIGH National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado ROBERT F. ROGERS Hurricane Research Division, NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 19 January 2017, in final form 28 July 2017) ABSTRACT A comprehensive examination of tropical cyclone (TC) kinematic and thermodynamic structure in the Atlantic basin is created from the Extended Flight Level Dataset for Tropical Cyclones (FLIGHT1, version 1.1). In situ data collected at the 700-hPa flight level by NOAA WP-3D and USAF WC-130 aircraft from 1999 to 2012 are analyzed. A total of 233 azimuthal mean profiles comprising 1498 radial legs are stratified by TC intensity and 12-h intensity change. A matrix of composite structures is created for minor (category 1 and 2) 2 and major (category 3 and above) hurricanes that are intensifying [intensity increase $10 kt (12 h) 1], steady 2 2 state [intensity change between 65 kt (12 h) 1], and weakening [intensity decrease #210 kt (12 h) 1]. Ad- ditional considerations to the impacts of age on TC structure are given as well. Axisymmetric radial com- posites reveal that intensifying TCs have statistically significant structural differences from TCs that are steady state or weakening, but that these differences also depend on the intensity of the TC. Intensifying TCs (both minor and major hurricanes) are characterized by steep tangential wind gradients radially inward of the radius of maximum tangential wind (RMW) that contribute to a ringlike structure of vorticity and inertial stability. -
Tropical Cyclone Tauktae
Tropical Cyclone Tauktae - Estimated Impacts Warning 7, 15 May 2021 2100 UTC PDC-1I-7A JTWC Summary: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 263 NM SOUTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AND HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL WITH A DEEPENING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND AN EVOLVING EYE FEATURE.THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 151703Z AMSU-B 89GHZ PASS AND COMPOSITE WEATHER RADAR LOOP FROM GOA, INDIA.THE INITIAL INTENSITY 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.0/65KTS AND ADT OF T3.9/63KTS.THE UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS), AND WARM (31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE.TC 01A IS TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK THROUGH TAU 36.AFTERWARD, IT WILL TRACK MORE NORTHWARD AND ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL NEAR VERAVAL, INDIA SHORTLY AFTER TAU 48.THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) REMAINS HIGH DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 36.AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITH LAND INTERACTION.AFTER LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE RUGGED TERRAIN, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120, POSSIBLY -
Combinatorial Optimization for WRF Physical Parameterization Schemes: a Case Study of Three-Day Typhoon Simulations Over the Northwest Pacific Ocean
atmosphere Article Combinatorial Optimization for WRF Physical Parameterization Schemes: A Case Study of Three-Day Typhoon Simulations over the Northwest Pacific Ocean Zhenhua Di 1,2,* , Wei Gong 1 , Yanjun Gan 3 , Chenwei Shen 1 and Qingyun Duan 1 1 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; [email protected] (W.G.); [email protected] (C.S.); [email protected] (Q.D.) 2 State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China 3 State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected]; Tel.: +86-10-5880-0217 Received: 21 March 2019; Accepted: 23 April 2019; Published: 1 May 2019 Abstract: Quantifying a set of suitable physics parameterization schemes for the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is essential for obtaining highly accurate typhoon forecasts. In this study, a systematic Tukey-based combinatorial optimization method was proposed to determine the optimal physics schemes of the WRF model for 15 typhoon simulations over the Northwest Pacific Ocean, covering all available schemes of microphysics (MP), cumulus (CU), and planetary boundary layer (PBL) physical processes. Results showed that 284 scheme combination searches were sufficient to find the optimal scheme combinations for simulations of track (km), central sea level pressure 1 (CSLP, hPa), and 10 m maximum surface wind (10-m wind, m s− ), compared with the 700 sets of full combinations (i.e., 10 MP 7 CU 10 PBL). -
Mesovortices, Polygonal Flow Patterns, and Rapid Pressure Falls in Hurricane-Like Vortices
2196 JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES VOLUME 58 Mesovortices, Polygonal Flow Patterns, and Rapid Pressure Falls in Hurricane-Like Vortices JAMES P. K OSSIN AND WAYNE H. SCHUBERT Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado (Manuscript received 21 July 2000, in ®nal form 8 January 2001) ABSTRACT The present work considers the two-dimensional barotropic evolution of thin annular rings of enhanced vorticity embedded in nearly irrotational ¯ow. Such initial conditions imitate the observed ¯ows in intensifying hurricanes. Using a pseudospectral numerical model, it is found that these highly unstable annuli rapidly break down into a number of mesovortices. The mesovortices undergo merger processes with their neighbors and, depending on initial conditions, they can relax to a monopole or an asymmetric quasi-steady state. In the latter case, the mesovortices form a lattice rotating approximately as a solid body. The ¯ows associated with such vorticity con®gurations consist of straight line segments that form a variety of persistent polygonal shapes. Associated with each mesovortex is a local pressure perturbation, or mesolow. The magnitudes of the pressure perturbations can be large when the magnitude of the vorticity in the initial annulus is large. In cases where the mesovortices merge to form a monopole, dramatic central pressure falls are possible. 1. Introduction ensued. The relaxation toward a monopole occurred within 30±36 h and resulted in increased swirling ¯ow The azimuthal mean tangential winds observed inside near the vortex center, which caused a decrease in cen- the radius of maximum tangential wind of hurricanes tral pressure. In their experiment, the central pressure often exhibit a ``U-shaped'' pro®le (i.e., ] 2y/]r 2 . -
Field Survey of the 2017 Typhoon Hato and a Comparison with Storm
1 Field survey of the 2017 Typhoon Hato and a comparison with storm 2 surge modeling in Macau 3 Linlin Li1*, Jie Yang2,3*, Chuan-Yao Lin4, Constance Ting Chua5, Yu Wang1,6, Kuifeng 4 Zhao2, Yun-Ta Wu2, Philip Li-Fan Liu2,7,8, Adam D. Switzer1,5, Kai Meng Mok9, Peitao 5 Wang10, Dongju Peng1 6 1Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 7 2Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore, Singapore 8 3College of Harbor, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Hohai University, China 9 4Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taipei 115, Taiwan 10 5Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 11 6Department of Geosciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan 12 7School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University, USA 13 8Institute of Hydrological and Ocean Research, National Central University, Taiwan 14 9Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Macau, Macau, China 15 10National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center, Beijing, China 16 Corresponding to: Linlin Li ([email protected]) ; Jie Yang ([email protected]) 17 Abstract: On August 23, 2017 a Category 3 Typhoon Hato struck Southern China. Among the hardest hit cities, 18 Macau experienced the worst flooding since 1925. In this paper, we present a high-resolution survey map recording 19 inundation depths and distances at 278 sites in Macau. We show that one half of the Macau Peninsula was inundated 20 with the extent largely confined by the hilly topography. The Inner Harbor area suffered the most with the maximum 21 inundation depth of 3.1m at the coast.