SOMALIA Post-Deyr 2012 Food Security and Nutrition Outlook January to June 2013 Despite improvements, more than one million likely to remain in Crisis through June 2013
KEY MESSAGES Map 1: Current Somalia A Acutecute Food In Foodsecurity S Insecurityituation Overview Situation, January 2013 Rural, Urban & IDP Populations: Jan 2013
• As a result of positive impact of the good Deyr rains 21,000 (4%) Total Urban Rural 75,000 (4%) Total on livestock and crop performance and continued Urban Rural Calula
!.BOSSASO ! Qandala Las Qoray/ humanitarian assistance, the number of people in Zeylac Badhan Bossaaso Lughaye !.ERIGABO AWDAL Baki ! Iskushuban Berbera Borama W. GALBEED SANAG Crisis and Emergency (IPC Phases 3 and 4) has halved BORAMA Ceel Afweyne Ceerigaabo BARI Aggregate Numbers !. Sheikh Gebiley Rural and Urban Populations HARGEYSA BURAO ! !. ! !. ! in Phases 3, 4 & 5 ! Qardho Hargeysa Owdweyne Xudun Bandar Beyla to 1.05 million. Even so, malnutrition rates in Somalia Phase % of (000s) Caynabo Talex Total Pop TOGDHEER Burco SOOL 3 4% 279 Garowe L!.aas Caanood remain among the highest in the world, according Buuhoodle LAS ANOD !!.GAROWE 4 1% 108 Eyl NUGAL to surveys conducted in October - December 2012. 5 0% 0 Burtinle
Galkacyo Jariiban =10% of the population 16,000 (5%) Goldogob Total !!.GALKAYO Humanitarian assistance to protect livelihoods, reduce Urban ! Rural 37,000 (11%) Total Urban Cadaado 41,000 (4%) MUDUG Rural acute malnutrition, and help the most food insecure Total Hobyo Urban Cabudwaaq Rural !.!DUSAMAREB 38,000 (12%) Dhusa Mareeb Total Urban populations meet their food needs is still necessary. 0 (0%) GALGADUD Rural Total BELET WEYNE Harardheere Ceel Barde Urban Bel!.ed Weyne Rural BAKOOL Ceel Bur Rab- Xudur Dhuure #!.HUDUR Ceel Dheere
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• With the onset of the January to March harsh Jilaal dry g ¹Wajid a Bulo Barde w e a y Aden Yabal H a GARBAHAREY Baydhaba T d !. Jalalaqsi le BAIDOA Cadale e Garbaharey season, livestock productivity will seasonally decrease, B !. ! JowharM. SHABELLE Qansax BAY !. GEDO Dheere Wanle Weyne JOWHAR
Ceel Waq Bur Hakaba Balcad but no major changes in food security classification are Dinsor #Afgoye ! BANADIR Baardheere ¹ ! Qoryoley A Sakow Ma!.rka
Y Kurtun Warrey
N M. JUBA BU'AALE expected between now and June. However, livelihoods #!. Sablale L. SHABELLE E # ¹Bu'aale B¹rava 101,000 (7%)
K Total L. JUBA Urban Rural in Somalia remain at risk to a wide variety of hazards Afmadow ¹#Jilib Jamaame
!.KISMAAYO such as limited water access. Kismayo
Badhadhe 58,000 (9%) Total Urban • Early forecasts are that the March to May Gu rains will Rural ± be normal to below normal in terms of total rainfall. 0 37.5 75 150 225 300 375
Kilometers
However, if total seasonal rainfall is well below average Technical Partners Funding Agencies Source: FSNAU Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC This map representsFo od Sacuteecurity and Nutr itiofoodn Analysis Uni t - Sinsecurityomalia http://w ww.fsnau.org outcomes relevant P.O. Box 1230 Village Market, Nairobi, Kenya Email: [email protected] tel: 254-20-4000000 fax:254-20-4000555 FSNAU is managed by FAO or very poorly distributed unlike in the early forecast, The boundaries and names on these maps do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. The regional & District boundaries reflect those endorsed by the Government of the Republic of Somalia in 1986. for emergency decision-making. It does not necessarily reflect the food insecure population is likely to increase. chronic food insecurity. Visit www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale The primary areas affected would likely be the maize for more on the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) household group scale growing, agropastoral areas of the South.
SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR
Camel Goat/Sheep Livestock migration to dry calving lambing season grazing areas Gu Camel calving Deyr Deyr off season Goat/Sheep assessment (South) assessment harvest lambing Gu off season Minor lean season Land preparation, planting Livestock migration to dry harvest (agricultural) and peak labor demand season grazing areas Land preparation, planting Deyr Main lean season Main Lean season Gu Minor lean season and peak labor demand harvest (pastoral) (agricultural) harvest (pastoral) Deyr (minor) rainy season Jilaal dry season Gu (main) rainy season Hagaa dry season
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Ongoing conflict in southern and central regions expected to continue. Normal to below normal Gu rains (March-May) Oct 2012 forecasted Sep 2013 Source: FEWS NET Somalia
Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC
EUROPEAN COMMISSION www.fews.net/somalia www.fsnau.org SOMALIA Post-Deyr 2012 Food Security and Nutrition Outlook February 12, 2013
NATIONAL OVERVIEW
Current Situation
Rural Areas
Somalia Acute Food Insecurity Situation Overview Above average harvest increased the food stocks at Map 2. ProjectedRural, Urban & IDPAcute Population s:: F Foodebruary - J une Insecurity, 2013 Most Likely Sc ena Situation,rio the household level, while livestock production and February to June 2013 (Most Likely Scenario)
20,000 (4%) value have improved. Along with these gains in food Total Urban Rural 74,000 (4%) Total and income, humanitarian interventions continued Urban Rural Calula !!.BOSSASO according to the latest data gathered by FSNAU and Qandala Las Qoray/ Zeylac Badhan Bossaaso Lughaye !.ERIGABO AWDAL Baki ! Iskushuban partners in December 2012. Berbera X Borama W. GALBEED SANAG BORAMA Ceel Afweyne Ceerigaabo BARI Aggregate Numbers !. Sheikh Gebiley Rural and Urban Populations HARGEYSA BURAO ! !. ! !. ! in Phases 3, 4 & 5 ! Qardho Hargeysa Owdweyne Xudun Bandar Beyla Phase % of (000s) Caynabo Talex Total Pop TOGDHEER SOOL X The October to December 2012 Deyr rains were average Burco 3 4% 328 Garowe L!.aas Caanood Buuhoodle LAS ANOD !!.GAROWE to above average in most parts of the country: 4 1% 107 Eyl NUGAL • Northwest: In most of West Golis and Guban pastoral 5 0% 0 Burtinle X Galkacyo Jariiban =10% of the population 16,000 (5%) Goldogob Total !!.GALKAYO Urban livelihood zones, there was dry weather from Rural 37,000 (11%) Total Urban Cadaado 65,000 (7%) MUDUG Rural Total Hobyo October to December, which is the normal seasonal Cabudwaaq Urban Rural !.!DUSAMAREB X 38,000 (12%) Dhusa Mareeb Total Urban pattern. However, as is usual, moderate December Rural 0 (0%) GALGADUD Total BELET WEYNE Harardheere Ceel Barde Urban Bel!.ed Weyne Rural BAKOOL X Ceel Bur to February Hays rains started in December in these Rab- Xudur Dhuure #!.HUDUR Ceel Dheere
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¹Wajid g a Bulo Barde w e a y Aden Yabal areas. The December rains were well distributed a H GARBAHAREY Baydhaba T d !. Jalalaqsi le BAIDOA Cadale e Garbaharey B !. ! JowharM. SHABELLE except in Zeylac district and eastern part of Berbera Qansax BAY !. GEDO Dheere Wanle Weyne JOWHAXR
Ceel Waq Bur Hakaba Balcad Dinsor #Afgoye ! BANADIR district where rains were poorly distributed. However, Baardheere ¹ ! Qoryoley A Sakow Ma!.rka
Y Kurtun Warrey
N M. JUBA BU'AALE no Hays rains fell in January 2013 exacerbating the #!. Sablale L. SHABELLE E # ¹Bu'aale B¹rava 122,000 (8%)
K Total L. JUBA Urban Rural dry conditions that have persisted in some areas Afmadow ¹#Jilib since late 2010. Jamaame KISMAAYO Kismayo !.
• Northeast:The rainfall performance in the pastoral Badhadhe 63,000 (10%) Total Urban Rural areas was fairly good and evenly distributed including ± in the Coastal Deeh livelihood zone, which had large 0 37.5 75 150 225 300 375
Kilometers
rainfall deficits over the past several seasons Technical Partners Funding Agencies Source: FSNAU Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC • Central regions: Rainfall in most of the Hawd and This map represents Foacuteod Security an d Nufoodtrition Analy sis Uinsecuritynit - Somalia http://w ww.f snauoutcomes.org relevant for P.O. Box 1230 Village Market, Nairobi, Kenya Email: [email protected] tel: 254-20-4000000 fax:254-20-4000555 FSNAU is managed by FAO The boundaries and names on these maps do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. The regional & District boundaries reflect those endorsed by the Government of the Republic of Somalia in 1986. Addun pastoral livelihood zones, and the cowpea emergency decision-making. It does not necessarily reflect chronic food growing areas (central agropastoral livelihood zone), insecurity. Visit www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale for more on the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) household group scale. were average with good frequency and distribution. Near average rainfall was also received in most parts of Coastal Deeh livelihood zone in the central regions, which had received poor precipitation during the April to June Gu 2012. • South: Widely distributed, moderate to heavy rains fell. There were exceptions in the agropastoral areas of Lower Juba and northern Gedo region where rainfall was insufficient for normal crop development.
As a result of the Deyr rains, maize, sorghum, and cash crop production occurred on a seasonally normal schedule with overall above average output. This season, some farmers shifted from cereals to more profitable sesame as cereal prices have remained low in many areas since the previous Deyr harvest in January 2012. Maize and sorghum production from the Deyr 2012 is estimated to be nearly 145,000 metric tons (MT), which is 46 percent higher than the Post War Average (PWA- 16-year average) and 51 percent higher than the five-year average. In spite of this production, Somalia produces only slightly over 40 percent of its annual cereal requirement even during the normal seasons. Bay region contributes more than half of Somalia’s sorghum production, and production was exeptionally good in Bay and in Lower and Middle
2 Famine Early Warning Systems Network/USAID and Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit/FAO Somalia SOMALIA Post-Deyr 2012 Food Security and Nutrition Outlook February 12, 2013
Shabelle regions. However, the agropastoral areas of Lower Juba and Gedo regions experienced significantly below average crop production. In addition to cereals, nearly 51,000 MT of other crops was harvested, including but not limited to sesame, cowpeas, rice, groundnuts, and watermelons. These high value crops were mainly harvested in Lower and Middle Shabelle and Juba, Gedo, Hiran, and Galgadud regions.
Rangeland conditions in the most pastoral livelihoods zones in the country are near average, except for Sool Plateau, some parts of the East Golis pastoral livelihood zone, the Dharoor Valley of Sanag region, and the Nugal Valley in Sool region, where Deyr rainfall was below average. As a cosequence, livestock migrated to areas with better pasture and browse condition earlier than normal, but the migration was primarily to normal areas of migration. Due to poor rains in the Sool Plateau and Nugal Valley in Sool and Sanag regions, abnormal livestock outmigrations to adjacent areas of the Sool Plateau in Bari region have been observed. On December 24 and 25, torrential, cold rains fell for nearly 25 hours in parts of Eyl and Dangorayo districts of Nugal region. As a result, a significant number of livestock death caused by hypothermia was reported in localised areas.
As a result of the October to December Deyr rains, both pasture and water availability have increased and contributed to improved livestock body condition. The Terms of Trade (ToT) between local quality goat and cereals have remained favorable and have risen since early 2012. Cereal prices have been lower than in the year before (Deyr 2011 harvest), and local quality goat prices have been exceptionally high in many markets since April or May, before the peak export period. These higher local quality goat prices and low cereal prices continued into December in most pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones, keeping ToT favorable for households that need to sell goats in order to buy cereals. In the pastoral areas, in October and November, most livestock species either conceived or were milking. Exceptions were found in western Guban pastoral livelihood zone, parts of the Sool Plateau, and Coastal Deeh livelihood zone. Barring those exceptions, with recent births livestock holdings and herd sizes for poor households increased across all species since July 2012. Overall, reported herd sizes in December 2012 were still below household economy baseline profile levels, which were recorded as recently as 2009 to 2011 in many areas of northern Somalia. However, camel holdings in the Hawd and West and East Golis pastoral livelihood zones of the Northwest increased since July and were above baseline levels.
ToT between daily casual labor wages to cereals are also favorable for both the rural and urban day laborers. The ToT have increased further since July 2012, and they remain above their five-year average levels. These wages facilitate access to food from markets for households that depend heavily on casual labor as a source of income.
After three years of devastating recurring droughts from 2008 to 2011, in Coastal Deeh pastoral livelihood zone, poor households are benefitting from three consecutive good rain seasons (Deyr 2011, Gu 2012 and Deyr 2012), which have enhanced pasture and water conditions and significantly improved livestock value and reproduction rates. A nutrition assessment based on middle-upper arm circumference (MUAC) in December shows MUAC under 12.5 cm in 10.1 percent of cases. This rate has remained unchanged from July 2012 and remains Criticalalthough improved from Very Criticalcompared to December 2011. Based on these factors, in Coastal Deeh pastoral livelihood zone, poor household’s access to food improved, although the area still remains in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to the limitted asset holding (livestock).
Due to increased crop production, improved livestock production, increased livestock values, and favorable casual daily labor rates, food security outcomes for the most rural parts of the country have improved significantly since August 2012. Most rural areas of the country are currently Stressed (IPC Phase 2) although even in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) areas, there remain many poor households still in either Crisis (IPC Phase 3)
Famine Early Warning Systems Network/USAID and Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit/FAO Somalia 3 SOMALIA Post-Deyr 2012 Food Security and Nutrition Outlook February 12, 2013
or Emergency (IPC Phase 4). The exceptions to the significant improvements since August are Guban pastoral livelihood zone, Jamame district of Lower Juba agropastoral livelihood zone, and parts of the Coastal Deeh livelihood zone in the central regions where outcomes remain classified in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
Urban Areas
Much like in rural areas, the December 2012 assessment results indicated improved food security outcomes in urban areas since July 2012. Key outcomes of the assessment indicate improved food access. For example, less than 10 percent of urban households in the North and Banadir were employing severe coping strategies, such as the reliance on support from the community or relatives to obtain food. Households reported increased ownership of more diverse range of assets, including productive assets. The number of productive and other assets owned increased slightly in the North. Households mostly reported stable or improved access to various income sources including casual labor, skilled labor, petty trade, and self-employment.
In most regions of the North, over 80 percent of Figure 1: Food Consumption Score in urban areas, urban households had acceptable food consumption December 2012 as defined by their Food Consumption Score (FCS). 120% acceptable borderline poor The FCS is a tool to measure food consumption using 100% both reported dietary diversity and frequency of 80% consumption. The December scores in the North represent an improvement in the FCSs recorded in 60%
July and August 2012. In Banadir Region, about 78 40% percent of households had acceptable consumption, a reduction from July 2012 estimates of 86 percent (Figure 20% 1). The households that reported poor to borderline 0% food consumption are also characterized by having Awdal W.Galbeed Sool Bari Nugaal N Mudug Banadir a relatively higher percentage of total expenditures devoted to food. Most are spending more than 75 percent of total expenditures on food alone. They also reported high level of debts incurred from purchases of both food and non-food items.
While income has been steady or rising for many households, the cost of food and other necessities has fallen slightly. The Minimum Expenditure Basket (MEB) is a basket of goods, services, and obligatory fees, which is used for tracking the prices of consumer goods and services and serves as a less data-intensive proxy for other measurements of the overall cost of living such as construction of a consumer price index (CPI). This total monthly cost for a given region to support a household of six to seven people is referred to as the Cost of the Minimum Expenditure Basket (CMB). From July 2012 to December 2012, the CMB declined between 5 and 11 percent in most urban areas of the South, including Banadir, Lower Shabelle, Bay, and Hiran regions while it remained stable in the remaining urban areas in the South. In the central regions, it declined between 13 and 17 percent. In southern and central Somalia, the increase in port activity in Mogadishu, as well as declining locally produced cereal prices led to this improved cost of living as measured by the declining CMB in most southern regions and strengthened purchasing power of the urban poor. In the Northeast, in Sanag, Bari, and Nugal regions, the declines were between 4 and 14 percent. However, in the Northwest, the CMB was mostly stable from July to December 2012.
While the CMB provides a guide to the overall cost of living, the actual purchasing power of the urban poor can be approximately measured through the casual, daily labor wages to cereals ToT. In most regions from July 2012 to December 2012, the ToT between daily, casual labor wages and locally grown cereals increased. In most regions of the South, the labor to local cereal ToT increased between 2 and 7 kilograms
4 Famine Early Warning Systems Network/USAID and Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit/FAO Somalia SOMALIA Post-Deyr 2012 Food Security and Nutrition Outlook February 12, 2013
(kg), meaning a casual laborer’s wages for Figure 2: Daily Labor Wage to Cereal ToT by Trade Basin, December one day would purchase this much more red 2007 to December 2012 sorghum or white maize in December than it 25 Central (red sorghum) Northeast (red sorghum) Northwest (white sorghum) Sorghum-belt (red sorghum) did in July. The labor to cereals ToT increased Shabelle (white maize) Juba (white maize) from one to two kg per day in other parts of 20 the South, in the central regions, and in the 15 Northeast. The December 2012 ToT ranged
from 15 to 22 kg per day in the South with 10
the exception of Bakol region where a day’s Kg per Daily Labour Wage wage only earns enough to purchase six kg of 5 red sorghum and in Lower Juba Region where a day’s wage only earns enough to purchase 0 Jun-11 Jun-11 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-12 Mar-11 Mar-11 Dec-11 Dec-11 Sep-11 Sep-11 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-12 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-12 10 kg of white maize. In the Central regions, Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-12 Month the December 2012 day’s wage to local cereal ToT are around 6 or 7 kg of grain for each day’s wage while they are between 6 and 8 kg in the Northeast and between 8 and 12 kg of local cereal per day’s work in the Northwest. Overall, the December 2012 daily labor wage to locally produced cereal ToT are significantly above their five-year averages except for in Bakol Region where ToT remain near the five-year average (Figure 2).
Despite the improved food security in many Figure 3: Food Expenditures as a Percentage of Total Expenditures Idp parts of the South, food spending among the Settlements, October To December 2012 urban poor in parts of southern and central 0.8
Somalia remains well above 75 percent of total 0.78 expenditures, which may indicate continued difficulties accessing food. Among the urban 0.76 poor, the percentage of household income spent 0.74 on food remains particularly high in the central 0.72 % food expenditure regions at 84 percent of total expenditures, 0.7 in Lower Juba region at 83 percent of total 0.68 expenditures, and in Bakol at 77 percent of total expenditures. Conflict that has restrained trade, 0.66 Burco
Baidoa Qarcho
Garowe Berbera
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