| No 4 | July to August 2007

UZBEKISTAN | Trends in Conflict and Cooperation

With presidential elections looming on the horizon (see earlier FAST Updates), campaigning should have been high on the political agenda during this reporting period. There was, however, almost no mention of any forthcoming election. The only official statement was made by Uzbekistan’s Commercial Attaché to Turkey in an interview on Turkish television on 30 August, where he stated that the presidential elections in December will mark further progress in the process of democratization. By law, the presidential election has to be officially announced by parliament no later than three months before the current term of the president ends. Depending on the legal interpretation, this date was either 22 October 2006 or will be 23 September 2007. Inside Uzbekistan, there were reported attempts to intimidate potential adversaries of the president. Human rights activists and independent commentators complain that they are kept under constant surveillance, amounting at times to harassment. There is no sign that President Karimov would be willing to leave his post in December despite the fact that he is currently serving his second and (constitutionally) last term; however, this problem will probably be resolved – by either parliament or the constitutional court declaring his current term to be his first under the new constitution of 2002, and thus clearing the way for him to run again in December. The fight against corruption seems to have intensified during this reporting period. In some cases people from the business sector were involved, while in other cases the accused were members of the state apparatus, including law enforcement agencies and the judiciary. Given the lack of transparency within law enforcement agencies and their mutual rivalries, the stepped up fight against corruption among members of these agencies could point to some power reshuffling. Uzbek authorities reportedly built a new prison in for high-ranking officials in order to cope with the rising number of prisoners from this sector. Among others, a former city district judge in Tashkent and a relative of former Minister of Internal Affairs Zokirjon Almatov were accused of having received their post in exchange for different services provided to the persons responsible for hiring them. The “buying” of governmental posts, (also in law enforcement agencies and in the judiciary) is widespread in Uzbekistan. Interestingly enough, official accusations against people for having bought their posts is not as important as against whom they are taken. Corruption charges are used as a convenient measure for sidelining senior people who have fallen into disgrace with the authorities. Corruption on a daily level is also continuing at the border between Uzbekistan and , where a bilateral agreement officially abolished the mutual requirement of visas for visits of up to 60 days. Despite this relaxation for citizens of both countries, local residents in the border areas of the Ferghana Valley complain about the demand for bribes by border guards on each side of the border. In particular, Uzbekistani citizens traveling from the exclave Sox who have to pass through Kyrgyz territory in order to get to mainland Uzbekistan are constantly required to pay bribes. Similar problems are also reported on the border between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Elsewhere in Uzbekistan, railway travelers from the southernmost province of Surxondaryo to the center of the country in the past had to traverse parts of Turkmenistan, enabling both Turkmen and Uzbek border guards to extort bribes from transit passengers. On 25 August, however, President Karimov inaugurated a Japanese-funded 220km railway track connecting the border town of with , which avoids the detour across Turkmen territory. This has greatly improved the situation. The president stressed that the importance of the new railroad was that it improved Uzbekistan’s export and transit capacities, yet the main benefit is faster and easier travel to and from Surxondaryo. Freight destined for export to Afghanistan and beyond has to be transshipped at the border since there is no rail network in Afghanistan.

Uzbekistan’s foreign policy activities focused on the country’s relations with Russia, , its neighboring countries and the Islamic world. The focus on Russia was underlined by the visit of First Deputy Prime Minister Sergey Ivanov in Tashkent from 4 to 6 July. Despite discussions with President Karimov and Prime Minister Mirziyoev about deepening bilateral relations, the only immediate tangible result of the visit was an agreement over the construction of two Russian designed airplanes at the Uzbek Aviation Plant for export to Jordan, a new trade partner. Regarding regional security, the main event was the summit of the Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Bishkek from 14 to 16 August. Uzbekistan is fully participating in the political and economic components of the organization, especially its call for regional approaches to regional problems, including Afghanistan. Despite full support for the political and economic agendas of the SCO, Tashkent is reluctant to put all its eggs in one basket. Its FAST Update | Uzbekistan | No 4 | July to August 2007

absence from joint military maneuvers in Russia’s Chelyabinsk region at the conclusion of the summit leaves room for speculation – was it a deliberate signal to the West, especially the US that the country is keeping the door slightly open or was it merely the non-availability of military personnel ahead of Independence Day (see below)? The Chinese vector of Uzbek foreign policy was strengthened by several high-ranking meetings. On 9 July, the Chinese Minister of Finance was in Tashkent for talks with President Karimov and for participating at the Uzbek- Chinese business forum. On the sidelines of the SCO summit, President Karimov held talks with his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao on deepening bilateral relations. Uzbekistan is particularly concerned about the situation in Afghanistan. Shortly after the SCO summit, a meeting of the Uzbek-Afghan intergovernmental commission for economic and scientific cooperation took place in Tashkent; members of both governments pledged to increase mutual trade. The image of Uzbekistan on the international scene was further boosted by the “International Conference on Uzbekistan’s Contribution to Islamic Civilization” held on 14-15 August by the country’s Foreign Ministry in Tashkent as part of the Islamic Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (ISESCO)’s program dedicated to the celebration of the city as the 2007 Islamic Culture Capital of Asia. The participation by a large number of senior representatives from different Islamic countries and international organizations (UNESCO, Organization of the Islamic Conference, Arab League) shows that Uzbekistan is by no means as isolated as some Western observers suggest.

The main social issue during this reporting period was the increase in pensions and wages and the subsequent burst of inflation: As of 1 August, pensions, public-sector wages, student grants and Country Stability and Conflictive Non-government Events (relative) social benefits were raised by 25 percent. Although at first glance this move seems to be positive, its effect has been the opposite – prices for basic necessities such as bread, oil, meat and electricity have increased more than the rise in salaries. Small scale local protests against the increase in prices were reported from different parts of the country – Andijon, Farg’ona, Jizzax, Namangan, Samarqand, Qarshi, among others. This is reflected on the graph. A so-far unknown “Committee for National Salvation” spread leaflets on 3 and 4 August in several areas of Tashkent calling for protest actions against the price hike; there was no immediate public response but in the longer term such actions could have an effect if the present level of popular dissatisfaction continues. The human rights activist and unofficial alternative candidate for the presidency Abdullo Tojiboy ugli also criticized the price hike. In an Source: FAST event data open letter published on 15 August, he accused the government of deliberately inciting social unrest in order to introduce martial law, thus providing an excuse to avoid holding the forthcoming presidential elections. Interestingly, he specifically named the prime minister but not the president. Preparations for the country’s Independence Day celebrations on 1 September were carried out with the help of community work and monetary contributions from local businessmen (sometimes made under coercion). Reports from Jizzax, and Navoi revealed cases of pupils, students and workers called for community work to clean the streets and parks of the cities. In Andijon local businessmen were reportedly forced by the governor’s office to collect USD $50,000 for various festivities. Throughout this period massive security measures were in place. Uzbekistan is completing its process towards abolishing capital punishment. On 31 July, the Uzbek Parliament ratified changes to the criminal code, which will abolish the death penalty as of 1 January 2008. While this move is a clear step forward in the country’s increased respect for human rights, there are still reports of torture being occasionally used although it is illegal. Some sources claim that this has sometimes resulted in the death of the prisoner. Thus, the façade of formally abolishing capital punishment does not necessarily correspond to the practice on the ground.

Despite some ambiguity over the upcoming presidential elections, the political situation in the country is still relatively stable. The main area of concern is the population’s anger over recent price hikes. Unless the government takes steps to address this problem, it could spark serious unrest throughout the country. The fight against corruption will very likely continue. President Karimov will probably take care to avoid making any significant change in the balance between clan- and interest-based groups since this could create resentments in the upper echelons of power that would threaten his own position and perhaps lead to the rise of a serious political challenge. Contact FAST International is the early warning program of swisspeace, FAST International covering 25 countries/regions in Africa, Asia and Europe. Based in Country Team: Uzbekistan Bern, Switzerland, the program is funded and utilized by an Sonnenbergstrasse 17 international consortium of development agencies, including the 3000 Bern 7 Austrian Development Agency (ADA), the Canadian International Switzerland Development Agency (CIDA), the Swedish International Development [email protected] Cooperation Agency (Sida) and the Swiss Agency for Development and www.swisspeace.org Cooperation (SDC).