MEMO PO L IC Y

How the EU can support reform in Burma Jonas Parello-Plesner

Burma is experiencing swift political changes. But although S Burma is reforming. After being released from the speed and scope of developments has gone beyond

U house arrest in November 2010, the leader of expectations, there remain important issues that have the National League for Democracy, Aung San not yet been resolved. Many political prisoners have been Suu Kyi, is expected to be elected as a member released – but not unconditionally – while others remain in MMAR of parliament in a by-election on 1 April. But jail. A new labour law has been passed, but the International although this is a momentous event, it risks Labour Organisation (ILO) remains concerned that the diverting attention away from important issues that have not yet been resolved. Some European related right to bargain collectively has yet to be enshrined Union member states are now calling for a “big in law. Forced labour also remains a serious problem in bang” approach – that is, immediately lifting many parts of the country, and a new plan for its eradication sanctions. This approach is based on the within three years has yet to be put to the test. A new law on assumption that reforms so far undertaken freedom of assembly falls short of international standards. are “irreversible”, as the Burmese government Although the regime has agreed ceasefires with many ethnic claims. But there are political, legal, historical groups, fighting and atrocities continue in Kachin, Karen and practical reasons why the EU should remain and Shan states.

Y cautious.

The EU should therefore respond to Burma’s After being released from house arrest in November 2010, changes not by a full and unconditional lifting of the leader of the National League for Democracy, Nobel sanctions but by taking a gradual and measured Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, is running for a seat approach, which would make clear that the in parliament in a by-election on 1 April. But although this key to full normalisation will be verifiable and is a momentous event, it risks diverting attention away irreversible reforms rather than mere promises of them. The EU should use benchmarks and from important issues that have not yet been resolved. The conditionality to ensure that the Burmese promised “irreversibility” of the reform process has yet to be government follow up on human rights issues confirmed. Even Aung San Suu Kyi has noted that “until we and make further progress on reform. The EU know that the army is solidly behind the reform movement, should lead its companies in a race to the top we cannot say the process is irreversible”.1 Moreover, by ensuring that European companies in Burma adhere to binding standards of corporate social responsibility and accountability. 1 Z. Linn, “Can Burma’s President persuade his army to obey his order?”, Asian Tribune, 4 March 2012, available at http://www.asiantribune.com/news/2012/03/03/can- burma%E2%80%99s-president-persuade-his-army-obey-his-order. 2 ECFR/52 March 2012 www.ecfr.eu How the EU can support reform in Burma 2  January, EU foreign ministers lifted visa bans on a large large a on bans visa lifted ministers foreign EU January, Friis Bach. All three countries have raised their levels of of levels their raised have countries three All Bach. Friis hardliner traditional (a Hague William Secretary Foreign The EU now has a unique chance to take a coherent approach also is Ashton, Catherine chief, policy foreign EU’s The The next big question is what to do about the EU’s EU’s the about do to what is question big next The Burma using benchmarks that will ensure that European European that ensure will that benchmarks using Burma Danish Minister for Development Co-operation Christian Christian Co-operation Development for Minister Danish Provided reform continues, the sanctions are likely to be be to likely are sanctions the continues, reform Provided and on foreign investment, guided by the highest standards highest the by guided investment, foreign on and particular, In partners. ASEAN its with Burma to approach assistance toachievingthosebenchmarks. and are expected to agree a revision of the existing sanctions although Aung San Suu Kyi leads the democratic opposition, clearer. Before she visits Burma, Ashton is due to participate by- the time which by April, elections will have late taken place and the role of the in opposition Burma visit to due development aid (only humanitarian aid is allowed); a visa a allowed); is aid humanitarian (only aid development equipment embargo; trade, export and investment sanctions of accountabilityandcorporatesocialresponsibility. eeomn assac, n saig nw sustainable- new a shaping and assistance, development engagement benefits all Burmese. An EU approach that that approach EU An Burmese. all benefits engagement on the extractive and logging industry; suspension of of suspension industry; logging and extractive the on on sanctions), French Foreign Minister Alain Juppé and and Juppé Alain Minister Foreign French sanctions), on reform process and target its capacity-building efforts and and efforts capacity-building its target and process reform regime, which requires unanimity in order to be continued. be to order in unanimity requires which regime, meeting will be an opportunity for the EU to co-ordinate its co-ordinate to EU the for opportunity an be will meeting ministers will discuss sanctions at a meeting on 23 April April 23 on meeting a at sanctions discuss will ministers ministers have also visited Burma, including British British including Burma, visited also have ministers they could take a joint stance on development assistance assistance development on stance joint a take could they to sanctions in line with clear and agreed benchmarks, benchmarks, agreed and clear with line in sanctions to the nextthreeyears. In government. Burmese the by taken been have that in the EU–ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) be will particular, in Kyi Suu San Aung of and general, in investment in named state-owned industries state-owned named in investment increasing options for institutional capacity-building and and capacity-building institutional for options increasing the in progress of benchmarks articulate should EU the so, sanctions against Burma. They include an arms and military she doesnotnecessarilyrepresentminorityethnicgroups. have an opportunity to redefine their relationship with with relationship their redefine to opportunity an have humanitarian aid to Burma. The European Commissioner Commissioner European The Burma. to aid humanitarian lifted at some point in the not-so-distant future. In doing doing In future. not-so-distant the in point some at lifted levels of EU assistance approximating to €150 million for for million €150 to approximating assistance EU of levels European Several leaders. government’s current the of part So far, the EU has already reciprocated the positive steps steps positive the reciprocated already has EU the far, So foreign ministers’ meeting in Brunei on 26–27 April. This This April. 26–27 on Brunei in meeting ministers’ foreign for Development, Andris Piebalgs, has also promised new new promised also has Piebalgs, Andris Development, for ban and asset freeze on military leadership; and a ban on on ban a and leadership; military on freeze asset and ban business approach to investing in Burma. EU member states would onlyresultintrading preferencesbeingreinstatedin2014. states’ hands.Aglobal reviewisunderwaythatrequiresconsultation withtheILOand Preferences) inthe1990sduetoforcedlabour issuesiseffectivelyoutofEUmember The withdrawalofpreferentialmarketaccess (undertheGeneralisedSystemof 2 . EU foreign foreign EU . Although there are reformers within the government and the The presumptionofirreversibility Legal Political EU debates about Burma have long been framed in terms terms in framed been long have Burma about debates EU The National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) is is (NHRC) Commission Rights Human National The serious expressed has experts of committee ILO’s The Reforming legislation takes time, especially when it is is it when especially time, takes legislation Reforming another case in point. A body set up in part to respond to UN argument government’s The registration. union trade and that. displays flaws, inherent its with law, labour adopted as being against their interest, particularly if reform touches approach to lifting sanctions will support their efforts as as efforts their support will sanctions lifting to approach far so reforms This that assumption the sanctions. on based lifting is approach immediately is, that – approach states member Those approach. incremental steady a and committed forreasonsofstate security. concerns surrounding freedom of association, forced labour recently The parliament. new relatively a through done economy. engaging in a Burmese “gold rush”, and will help secure a secure help will and rush”, “gold Burmese a in engaging to indicate would optimism than caution more displays of expression, fall below international standards. Civil and Civil standards. international below fall expression, of practical and historical legal, political, are there But claims. of a polarised debate between engagement on the one one the on engagement between debate polarised a of rapporteur Tomas Ojea Quintana’s call for a Commission of reversibility of current reforms is that, under article 445 of 445 article under that, is reforms current of reversibility under released were prisoners The unconditional. concern. not for cause a is association of freedom to right reform paththatisprogressiveandirreversible. ruling elite, their position is by no means secure. A gradual A secure. means no by is position their elite, ruling reasons whytheEUshouldbecautiousabouttheseclaims. more deep-rooted issues such as the military’s role in the the in role military’s the as such issues deep-rooted more the constitution, the government still has impunity for acts for impunity has still government the constitution, the the of suspension the allow concerns order and law that stand. Other laws, including on investment and freedom freedom and investment on including laws, Other stand. than rather code procedure criminal the of 401 section of groups also are stakeholders in top There positions that see the changes underway efforts. those of sustainability sanctions of lifting wholesale and immediate an between is has not improved. The most prominent example of the the of example prominent most The improved. not has hand and sanctions on the other. But the real choice now now choice real the But other. the on sanctions and hand political rights are not guaranteed and the legal framework legal the and guaranteed not are rights political still sentences their so amnesty, unconditional an under partners that Europe is able to act progressively without without progressively act to able is Europe that partners long as it is combined with closer scrutiny to support the the support to scrutiny closer with combined is it as long government Burmese the as “irreversible”, are undertaken bang” “big a for calling now are sanctions against previously Similarly, political prisoner release, though welcome, was was welcome, though release, prisoner political Similarly, Inquiry into possible international crimes, it has yet to show A gradual and measured approach that it has the independence, capacity or procedures to to lifting sanctions support its mandate. Its chair, U Win Mra, has made public statements claiming independence from the government, Given these ongoing issues, the EU should reject the “big though he also stated in February 2012 that the commission bang” approach and instead take a gradual and measured would not look into “human rights violations and atrocities approach to Burma. EU foreign ministers should not be hasty supposed to be committed against ethnic groups”. Even in lifting sanctions, which would remove what EU leverage the NHRC’s initiation, by a government notification rather remains and leave reformers inside Burma’s government than a legislative act, calls into question its legitimacy. without the prospect of further international recognition of Most conspicuously absent is the UN requirement that their efforts. A gradual approach to lifting sanctions would such national human rights bodies follow a mandate based demonstrate support for the situation on the ground and for on universal human rights standards. Instead, the NHRC the promising steps already taken, and make clear that the explicitly takes its mandate from the rights expressed in the key to full normalisation will be verifiable and irreversible 2008 Burmese constitution. reforms rather than mere promises of them.

In particular, the EU should set benchmarks for further Historical democratic and economic reform and explain what steps would lead to the full removal of sanctions. These should Burma watchers and internal experts note the similarities include some of the basic legal reforms that would allow between recent events and the professed opening in for freedom of association and speech, the rule of law and the early 1990s, which was followed by a crackdown, investment in line with international standards. According increased violence and an extended period of isolation. The to such a benchmarked approach, the EU might lift some international community has to be wary of this potential and sanctions in April (the ban on development assistance keep the pressure on the government to reform. Burma’s should go, so that capacity-building by European actors can upcoming chairmanship of ASEAN may signify that it is be pursued) but leave in place the arms embargo, the asset rejoining the international community, but it does not give freeze and the visa ban on top military strongmen. it carte blanche for normalised relations. The historical evidence also highlights the reputational risk at stake for Restrictions should remain on the export of equipment, or the EU. Premature lifting of sanctions might be followed by related financial or technical support for the timber industry limited or no further progress on reforms and a reassertion and mining of metals or gemstones (imports of which are by hardliners or an escalation of serious human rights also banned), and the prohibition of EU firms from entering abuses in ethnic areas. All or any of these possibilities might into joint ventures with, or holding securities in, Burmese put the EU in the awkward position of having to re-impose firms in these sectors. Their lifting would require evidence sanctions that it had prematurely lifted. of credible reforms to international standards on labour laws, budget management and environmental protection.

Practical The EU should also apply conditionality in relation to progress on democracy, human rights and the rule of law. The lack of real reform should act as the primary incentive The EU’s development assistance should be linked to the for caution. There are reports from Kachin state of ongoing governance situation in the country and to political dialogue atrocities, which may constitute war crimes and crimes with Burmese authorities, as recommended in the EU’s against humanity. In addition, ongoing fighting in Shan recent statement on development policy.3 In particular, state and confusion over ceasefire agreements in Karen decisions about the level of development assistance should state do not tally with statements by officials in March that be made with reference to: almost all planned ceasefires were in place. According to the “Peace Plan” presented by Burmese President U Thein • access for the International Committee of the Red Sein in parliament on 1 March, ethnic groups will be allowed Cross to prisons and lists of prisoners, and the to form political parties, join parliament and contribute to immediate and unconditional release of remaining amending the constitution. But nothing so far indicates that political prisoners; there will be elections before the next planned one in 2015. Even then, the military will still hold 25 percent of seats and • an end to human rights violations, military attacks thus have an effective veto on constitutional amendments. on civilians and military impunity; A peace plan that doesn’t tackle the role of the military in politics is unlikely to have any chance of long-term success. • unrestricted humanitarian access for the UN and other humanitarian agencies to ethnic areas.

3 “Increasing the impact of EU Development Policy: an Agenda for Change”, European Commission, , 13 October 2011, COM(2011) 637, p. 5. 3 4 ECFR/52 March 2012 www.ecfr.eu How the EU can support reform in Burma A racetothetoponcorporatesocialresponsibility and accountability (particularly as local legislation is inadequate) and thus thus and inadequate) is legislation local as (particularly In order to improve corporate social responsibility and and responsibility social corporate improve to order In European firms are potentially big investors in Burma. They In addition to taking a gradual and measured approach approach measured and gradual a taking to addition In Other measures accountability, theEUshould: public where Burma, in ground fertile strike will approach Compact, extractive industry disclosure regulations and and regulations disclosure industry extractive Compact, accountability and transparency on standards agreed countries that are rich in natural resources but do not have not do but resources natural in rich are that countries conflicts, anddonorco-ordination. responsibility and accountability, democracy and ethnic ethnic and democracy accountability, and responsibility the capacity to fully benefit from revenues generated. This generated. revenues from benefit fully to capacity the the EU’s non-financial disclosure guidelines on corporate corporate on guidelines disclosure non-financial EU’s the signs ofreform. budding the of another was and project the of suspension to lifting sanctions, the EU could support the transition transition the support could EU the sanctions, lifting to social responsibility. In this way, the EU would be taking taking be would EU the way, this In responsibility. social standards should reflect OECD guidelines, the UN’s Global UN’s the guidelines, OECD reflect should standards These accountability. social with standards business setting in Burma through other measures on corporate social social corporate on measures other through Burma in should enter the Burmese market with high and jointly jointly and high with market Burmese the enter should large Chinese-led dam project led to subsequent government protests triggered by environmental and local concerns on a practical steps to avoid the pitfalls it has witnessed in other in witnessed has it pitfalls the avoid to steps practical beat China and other investors in a race to the top of of top the to race a in investors other and China beat •  •  improve transparency and accountability in gas gas in accountability and transparency improve convene an EU–Burma summit under the auspices the under summit EU–Burma an convene EU should seek to extend this approach to other other to approach this extend to seek should EU US, JapanandASEAN. The Act). Dodd–Frank the as such legislation US Burma. The EU would be a natural champion for for champion natural a be would EU The Burma. and oil revenues. Burma has large oil and gas gas and oil large has Burma revenues. oil and proposals legislative current with line in be also corporate international of set full the to adhere to companies European require to be would aim gas circulate in obscure circuits outside official official outside circuits obscure in circulate gas on extractives disclosure (which are similar to, if if to, similar are (which disclosure extractives on of High Representative Catherine Ashton that that Ashton Catherine Representative High of not more potentially more targeted than, those in in those than, targeted more potentially more not revenues, which could secure for it a sustainable sustainable a it for secure could which revenues, The NGOs. and businesses together bring would trade unions and NGOs in developing a binding binding a developing in NGOs and unions trade international companies and co-operate with the the with co-operate and companies international such a novel and proactive approach, which would which approach, proactive and novel a such develop could This guidelines. responsibility social framework for business and human rights in in rights human and business for framework by undertaken being currently work the further future. But, at the moment, revenues from oil and oil from revenues moment, the at But, future. budgets. European capacity-building should work work should capacity-building European budgets.

As the new relationship with Burma develops, the EU should Ahtisaari, whomediatedinAceh2004. Democracy andethnicconflicts Donor co-ordination EU could also try to play a distinctive mediation role by by role mediation distinctive a play to try also could EU Development assistance is now flooding into Burma. Donor Burma. into flooding now is assistance Development also from the EU seems to be dwindling while the situation the while dwindling be to seems EU the from also is concern of area particular A areas. ethnic to assistance effective ensure to responsibility a has EU the assistance, is implementation that and followed are standards agreed democratisation agenda. The European External Action Action External European The agenda. democratisation opposition the and government the both on pressure exert co-ordination and, in particular, to increase humanitarian humanitarian increase to particular, in and, co-ordination will ASEAN with co-operation trilateral and co-ordination to deliver on ethnic reconciliation as an integral part of the of part integral an as reconciliation ethnic on deliver to the Burmese refugees on the Thai border where support support where border Thai the on refugees Burmese the transparent. In leading the drive for increased development that ensure to and areas, essential most the targets aid that prevention and mediation instruments towards Burma. The possibility of refugees returning to unsafe ethnic conflict conflict ethnic unsafe to returning refugees of possibility Martti as such negotiators peace eminent its of some using Service might also be called upon to employ its conflict conflict its employ to upon called be also might Service for a return to Burma isn’t yet ready. This is creating the the creating is This ready. yet isn’t Burma to return a for zones or an increase of illegal economic activity in Thailand. be essential to avoid duplication of resources and to ensure to and resources of duplication avoid to essential be would benefitthewholepopulation. transfer revenues directly into health and social social and health into directly could revenues that fund transfer national a of establishment for the work furthermore and transparency towards services and infrastructure improvements that that improvements infrastructure and services About the author

Jonas Parello-Plesner is a Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Realtions. Previously, he was Director of a development NGO with activities in Asia and served as Denmark’s Senior Advisor on China and North East Asia from 2005-2009. He is also on the editorial board of RÆSON, a Danish international affairs magazine. He is the co-author of The Scramble for Europe (with François Godement and Alice Richard, 2011) and China’s Janus- faced response to the Arab revolutions (with Raffaello Pantucci, 2011).

5 Among members of the European Council on Foreign Relations are Jerzy Buzek (Poland) Rolf Ekeus (Sweden) Diego Hidalgo (Spain) Member of the ; Former Executive Chairman, United Co-founder of Spanish newspaper El former prime ministers, presidents,

rma former President of the European Nations Special Commission on Iraq; País; President, FRIDE European commissioners, current u Parliament; former Prime Minister former OSCE High Commissioner on and former parliamentarians and National Minorities; former Chairman Jaap de Hoop Scheffer ministers, public intellectuals, Gunilla Carlsson (Sweden) International Peace (The Netherlands) business leaders, activists and Minister for International Development Research Institute, SIPRI Former NATO Secretary General Cooperation cultural figures from the EU member Uffe Ellemann-Jensen Danuta Hübner (Poland) states and candidate countries. Maria Livanos Cattaui (Denmark) Member of the European Parliament; (Switzerland) Chairman, Baltic Development Forum; former European Commissioner Former Secretary General of the former Foreign Minister Asger Aamund (Denmark) International Chamber of Commerce Anna Ibrisagic (Sweden) President and CEO, A. J. Aamund A/S Steven Everts (The Netherlands) Member of the European Parliament and Chairman of Bavarian Nordic A/S Ipek Cem Taha (Turkey) Adviser to the Vice President of the Jaakko Iloniemi (Finland) pport reform in B Director of Melak Investments/ Urban Ahlin (Sweden) European Commission and EU High u Journalist Former Ambassador and former Deputy Chairman of the Foreign Representative for Foreign and Security Policy Executive Director, Crisis Management Affairs Committee and foreign Carmen Chacón (Spain) Initiative policy spokesperson for the Social Former Minister of Defence Tanja Fajon (Slovenia) Democratic Party Member of the European Parliament Toomas Ilves (Estonia) President

U can s Charles Clarke E Martti Ahtisaari (Finland) (United Kingdom) Gianfranco Fini (Italy) e Chairman of the Board, Crisis Visiting Professor of Politics, University President, Chamber of Deputies; Wolfgang Ischinger (Germany) h Management Initiative; former of East Anglia; former Home Secretary former Foreign Minister Chairman, Munich Security President Conference; Global Head of Nicola Clase (Sweden) Joschka Fischer (Germany) Government Affairs Allianz SE Giuliano Amato (Italy) Ambassador to the United Kingdom; Former Foreign Minister and vice-

How t Former Prime Minister and vice former State Secretary Chancellor Minna Järvenpää (Finland/US) President of the European Convention; International Advocacy Director, Open Chairman, Centre for American Daniel Cohn-Bendit (Germany) Karin Forseke (Sweden/USA) Society Foundation Studies; Chairman, Enciclopedia Member of the European Parliament Business Leader; former CEO Carnegie Treccani Investment Bank Mary Kaldor (United Kingdom) Robert Cooper Professor, London School of Economics Gustavo de Aristegui (Spain) (United Kingdom) Lykke Friis (Denmark) Member of Parliament Member of Parliament; former Minister Ibrahim Kalin (Turkey) Counsellor of the European External Senior Advisor to the Prime Minister Action Service for Climate, Energy and Gender Gordon Bajnai (Hungary) Equality of Turkey on foreign policy and public Former Prime Minister Gerhard Cromme (Germany) diplomacy Jaime Gama (Portugal) Dora Bakoyannis (Greece) Chairman of the Supervisory Board of Sylvie Kauffmann (France) the ThyssenKrupp Former Speaker of the Parliament; Member of Parliament; former Foreign former Foreign Minister Editorial Director, Le Monde Minister Daniel Daianu (Romania) Timothy Garton Ash David Koranyi (Hungary) Leszek Balcerowicz (Poland) Professor of Economics, National Deputy Director, Eurasia Center of the Professor of Economics at the School of Political and Administrative (United Kingdom) Atlantic Council of the United States; School of Economics; former Deputy Studies (SNSPA); former Finance Professor of European Studies, Oxford former under-Secretary of state and Prime Minister Minister University advisor to the Prime Minister Lluís Bassets (Spain) Massimo D’Alema (Italy) Carlos Gaspar (Portugal) Olli Kivinen (Finland) Deputy Director, El País President, Italianieuropei Foundation; Chairman of the Portuguese Institute of Writer and columnist President, Foundation for European International Relations (IPRI) Marek Belka (Poland) Progressive Studies; former Prime Ben Knapen (The Netherlands) Governor, National Bank of Poland; Minister and Foreign Minister Teresa Patricio Gouveia Minister for European Affairs and former Prime Minister (Portugal) International Cooperation Marta Dassù (Italy) Trustee to the Board of the Calouste Roland Berger (Germany) Under Secretary of State for Foreign Gulbenkian Foundation; former Gerald Knaus (Austria) Founder and Honorary Chairman, Affairs Foreign Minister Chairman of the European Stability Roland Berger Strategy Consultants Initiative and Carr Center Fellow GmbH Ahmet Davutoglu (Turkey) Heather Grabbe Foreign Minister Caio Koch-Weser (Germany) Erik Berglöf (Sweden) (United Kingdom) Vice Chairman, Deutsche Bank Group; Aleš Debeljak (Slovenia) Executive Director, Open Society Chief Economist, European Bank for Institute – Brussels former State Secretary Reconstruction and Development Poet and Cultural Critic Bassma Kodmani (France) Jean-Luc Dehaene (Belgium) Charles Grant (United Kingdom) Jan Krzysztof Bielecki (Poland) Director, Centre for European Reform Executive Director of the Arab Reform Chairman, Prime Minister’s Economic Member of the European Parliament; Initiative Council; former Prime Minister former Prime Minister Jean-Marie Guéhenno (France) Rem Koolhaas (The Gianfranco Dell’Alba (Italy) Director of the Centre on International Carl Bildt (Sweden) Conflict Resolution, Columbia Netherlands) Foreign Minister Director, Confederation of Italian Industry (Confindustria) - Brussels University (New York); Senior Fellow, Architect and urbanist; Professor at the Brookings Institution; former Under- Graduate School of Design, Harvard Henryka Bochniarz (Poland) office; former Member of the European University President, Polish Confederation of Parliament Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Private Employers – Lewiatan Operations at the UN Pavol Demeš (Slovakia) Bernard Kouchner (France) Svetoslav Bojilov (Bulgaria) Senior Transatlantic Fellow, German Fernando Andresen Guimarães Former Minister of Foreign Affairs Founder, Communitas Foundation and Marshall Fund of the United States (Portugal) Ivan Krastev (Bulgaria) President of Venture Equity Bulgaria () Head of the US and Canada Division, Chair of Board, Centre for Liberal Ltd. 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Rotfeld (Poland) Foreign Minister Senior Adviser, IFRI Former Minister of Foreign Affairs; Co-Chairman of Polish-Russian Group Daniel Valtchev, (Bulgaria) on Difficult Matters, Commissioner of Former Deputy PM and Minister of Pierre Moscovici (France) Education Member of Parliament; former Minister Euro-Atlantic Security Initiative for European Affairs Norbert Röttgen (Germany) Vaira Vike-Freiberga (Latvia) Nils Muiznieks (Latvia) Minister for the Environment, Former President Director, Advanced Social and Political Conservation and Nuclear Safety Antonio Vitorino (Portugal) Research Institute, University of Latvia Olivier Roy (France) Lawyer; former EU Commissioner Hildegard Müller (Germany) Professor, European University Institute, Andre Wilkens (Germany) Chairwoman, BDEW Bundesverband Florence Director Mercator Centre and der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft Daniel Sachs (Sweden) Director Strategy, Mercator Haus Wolfgang Münchau (Germany) CEO, Proventus Carlos Alonso Zaldívar (Spain) President, Eurointelligence ASBL Pasquale Salzano (Italy) Ambassador to Brazil Kalypso Nicolaïdis Vice President, International Institutional Stelios Zavvos (Greece) (Greece/France) Affairs, ENI CEO, Zeus Capital Managers Ltd Professor of International Relations, Stefano Sannino (Italy) University of Oxford Samuel Žbogar (Slovenia) Director General for Enlargement, EU Representative to Kosovo; former Daithi O’Ceallaigh (Ireland) European Commission Foreign Minister Director-General, Institute of Marietje Schaake International and European Affairs (The Netherlands) Christine Ockrent (Belgium) Member of the European Parliament Editorialist Pierre Schori (Sweden) Andrzej Olechowski (Poland) Chair of Olof Palme Memorial Fund; Former Foreign Minister former Director General, FRIDE; former SRSG to Cote d’Ivoire Dick Oosting (The Netherlands) CEO, European Council on Foreign Wolfgang Schüssel (Austria) Relations; former Europe Director, Member of Parliament; former Amnesty International Chancellor Mabel van Oranje Karel Schwarzenberg (The Netherlands) (Czech Republic) CEO, The Elders Foreign Minister Marcelino Oreja Aguirre (Spain) Giuseppe Scognamiglio (Italy) Member of the Board, Fomento de Executive Vice President, Head of Public Construcciones y Contratas; former EU Affairs, UniCredit Spa Commissioner Narcís Serra (Spain) Cem Özdemir (Germany) Chair of CIDOB Foundation; former Vice Leader, Bündnis90/Die Grünen (Green President of the Spanish Government Party) Radosław Sikorski (Poland) Ana Palacio (Spain) Foreign Minister Former Foreign Minister; former Senior President and General Counsel of the Aleksander Smolar (Poland) World Bank Group Chairman of the Board, Stefan Batory Foundation Simon Panek (Czech Republic) Chairman, People in Need Foundation Javier Solana (Spain) Former EU High Representative for the Chris Patten (United Kingdom) Common Foreign and Security Policy & Chancellor of Oxford University and co- Secretary-General of the Council of the chair of the International Crisis Group; EU; former Secretary General of NATO former EU Commissioner George Soros (Hungary/USA) Diana Pinto (France) Founder and Chairman, Open Society Historian and author Foundations Jean Pisani-Ferry (France) Teresa de Sousa (Portugal) Director, Bruegel; Professor, Université Journalist -Dauphine Goran Stefanovski (Macedonia) Playwright and Academic 7 Also available Supporting Moldova’s Egypt’s Hybrid Revolution: Ukraine after the Tymoshenko from ECFR Democratic Transition a Bolder EU Approach verdict

rma Nicu Popescu, October 2009 Anthony Dworkin, Daniel Korski Andrew Wilson, December 2011 u New World Order: The Balance (ECFR/17) and Nick Witney, May 2011 (ECFR/47) of Soft Power and the Rise of (ECFR/32) Herbivorous Powers Can the EU rebuild failing European Foreign Policy Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard, states? A review of Europe’s A Chance to Reform: How the Scorecard 2012 October 2007 (ECFR/01) Civilian Capacities EU can support Democratic February 2012 (ECFR/48) Daniel Korski and Richard Gowan, Evolution in Morocco A Power Audit of EU-Russia October 2009 (ECFR/18) Susi Dennison, Nicu Popescu The Long Shadow of Relations and José Ignacio Torreblanca, Ordoliberalism: Germany’s Mark Leonard and Nicu Popescu, Towards a Post-American May 2011 (ECFR/33) Approach to the Euro Crisis November 2007 (ECFR/02) Europe: A Power Audit of Sebastian Dullien and Ulrike

pport reform in B EU-US Relations China’s Janus-faced Response Guérot, February 2012 (ECFR/49) u Poland’s second return to Europe? Jeremy Shapiro and Nick Witney, to the Arab Revolutions Paweł Swieboda, December 2007 October 2009 (ECFR/19) Jonas Parello-Plesner and The End of the Putin Consensus (ECFR/03) Raffaello Pantucci, June 2011 Ben Judah And Andrew Wilson, Dealing with Yanukovych’s (ECFR/34) March 2012 (ECFR/50)

U can s Afghanistan: Europe’s Ukraine E forgotten war Andrew Wilson, March 2010 What does Turkey think? Syria: Towards a Political e

h Daniel Korski, January 2008 (ECFR/20) Edited by Dimitar Bechev, June Solution (ECFR/04) 2011 (ECFR/35) Julien Barnes-Dacey, March 2012 Beyond Wait-and-See: (ECFR/51) Meeting Medvedev: The Politics The Way Forward for What does Germany think How t of the Putin Succession EU Balkan Policy about Europe? Andrew Wilson, February 2008 Heather Grabbe, Gerald Knaus Edited by Ulrike Guérot and (ECFR/05) and Daniel Korski, May 2010 Jacqueline Hénard, June 2011 (ECFR/21) (ECFR/36) Re-energising Europe’s Security and Defence Policy A Global China Policy The Scramble for Europe Nick Witney, July 2008 (ECFR/06) François Godement, June 2010 François Godement and Jonas (ECFR/22) Parello-Plesner with Alice Can the EU win the Peace in Richard, July 2011 (ECFR/37) Georgia? Towards an EU Human Rights Nicu Popescu, Mark Leonard and Strategy for a Post-Western Palestinian Statehood at the Andrew Wilson, August 2008 World UN: Why Europeans Should (ECFR/07) Susi Dennison and Anthony Vote “Yes” Dworkin, September 2010 Daniel Levy and Nick Witney, A Global Force for Human (ECFR/23) September 2011 (ECFR/38) Rights? An Audit of European Power at the UN The EU and Human Rights The EU and Human Rights at Richard Gowan and Franziska at the UN: 2010 Review the UN: 2011 Review Brantner, September 2008 Richard Gowan and Franziska Richard Gowan and Franziska (ECFR/08) Brantner, September 2010 Brantner, September 2011 (ECFR/24) (ECFR/39) Beyond Dependence: How to deal with Russian Gas The Spectre of a Multipolar How to Stop the Pierre Noel, November 2008 Europe Demilitarisation of Europe (ECFR/09) Ivan Krastev & Mark Leonard Nick Witney, November 2011 with Dimitar Bechev, Jana (ECFR/40) Re-wiring the US-EU relationship Kobzova & Andrew Wilson, Daniel Korski, Ulrike Guerot and October 2010 (ECFR/25) Europe and the Arab Mark Leonard, December 2008 Revolutions: A New Vision for (ECFR/10) Beyond Maastricht: a New Democracy and Human Rights Deal for the Eurozone Susi Dennison and Anthony Shaping Europe’s Afghan Surge Thomas Klau and François Dworkin, November 2011 Daniel Korski, March 2009 Godement, December 2010 (ECFR/41) (ECFR/11) (ECFR/26) Spain after the Elections: the A Power Audit of EU-China The EU and Belarus after “Germany of the South”? Relations the Election José Ignacio Torreblanca and John Fox and Francois Godement, Balázs Jarábik, Jana Kobzova Mark Leonard, November 2011 April 2009 (ECFR/12) and Andrew Wilson, January (ECFR/42) 2011 (ECFR/27) Beyond the “War on Terror”: Four Scenarios for the Towards a New Transatlantic After the Revolution: Europe Reinvention of Europe Framework for Counterterrorism and the Transition in Tunisia Mark Leonard, November 2011 Anthony Dworkin, May 2009 Susi Dennison, Anthony Dworkin, (ECFR/43) (ECFR/13) Nicu Popescu and Nick Witney, March 2011 (ECFR/28) Dealing with a Post-Bric Russia The Limits of Enlargement-lite: Ben Judah, Jana Kobzova and European and Russian Power in European Foreign Policy Nicu Popescu, November 2011

www.ecfr.eu the Troubled Neighbourhood Scorecard 2010 (ECFR/44) Nicu Popescu and Andrew March 2011 (ECFR/29) Wilson, June 2009 (ECFR/14) Rescuing the euro: what is The New German Question: China’s price?’ The EU and human rights at the How Europe can get the François Godement, November UN: 2009 annual review Germany it needs 2011 (ECFR/45) Richard Gowan and Franziska Ulrike Guérot and Mark Leonard, Brantner, September 2009 April 2011 (ECFR/30) A “Reset” with Algeria: the (ECFR/15) Russia to the EU’s South arch 2012

M Turning Presence into Power: Hakim Darbouche and Susi What does Russia think? Lessons from the Eastern Dennison, December 2011 edited by Ivan Krastev, Mark Neighbourhood (ECFR/46) Leonard and Andrew Wilson, Nicu Popescu and Andrew September 2009 (ECFR/16) Wilson, May 2011 (ECFR/31) ECFR /52 8 www.ecfr.eu individuals or institutions. with other organisations but does not make grants to Stiftung Mercator and Steven Heinz. ECFR works in partnership Communitas Foundation, the Italian UniCredit group, the Internacionales y el Diálogo Exterior), the Bulgarian Spanish foundation FRIDE (La Fundación para las Relaciones ECFR is backed by the Soros Foundations Network, the • • • that define its activities: ECFR has developed a strategy with three distinctive elements values-based European foreign policy. across Europe on the development of coherent, effective and objective is to conduct research and promote informed debate first pan-European think-tank. Launched in October 2007, its The A Ahtisaari, Joschka Fischer and Mabel van Oranje. within their own countries. The Council is chaired by Martti and feedback on policy ideas and help with ECFR’s activities thematic task forces, members provide ECFR staff with advice meets once a year as a full body. Through geographical and from the EU’s member states and candidate countries - which politicians, decision makers, thinkers and business people distinguished Council of over one hundred Members - A B media outlets. of ECFR’ gatherings in EU capitals and outreach to strategic policy reports, private meetings and public debates, ‘friends focus. ECFR’s activities include primary research, publication of its objectives through innovative projects with a pan-European researchers and practitioners from all over Europe to advance ECFR has brought together a team of distinguished A communications. offices are platforms for research, debate, advocacy and In the future ECFR plans to open an office in Brussels. Our in Berlin, London, , Paris, , and Warsaw. ECFR, uniquely among European think-tanks, has offices A pan- O distinctive research and policy development process. physical presence in the main E U uropean T

ECFR E uropean C ouncil on C ouncil. F ECFR has brought together a oreign R E elations U member states. (ECFR) is the [email protected] 9JA, UnitedKingdom 35 OldQueenStreet,London,SW1H Foreign Relations(ECFR), Published bytheEuropeanCouncilon ISBN: 978-1-906538-52-1 © ECFRMarch2012. Council onForeignRelations written permissionoftheEuropean use. Anyotheruserequirestheprior your ownpersonalandnon-commercial content fromthispublicationexceptfor republish orcirculateinanywaythe Relations. Youmaynotcopy,reproduce, by theEuropeanCouncilonForeign Copyright ofthispublicationisheld views ofitsauthors. Foreign Relations,representsonlythe publications oftheEuropeanCouncilon positions. Thispaper,likeall Relations doesnottakecollective The EuropeanCouncilonForeign

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