Pakistan’s Elites Perception of Indo-Afghan Relations and its Strategic Implications for Pakistan; Challenges and Options in the Post-9/11 Era
Researcher: Supervisor:
Sarwat Sultana Dr. Noor Fatima 27-SS/PhD PS&IR/F08 Assistant Professor PhD Politics and International Relations Department of Politics & International Relations
Department of Politics & International Relations Faculty of Social Sciences International Islamic University Islamabad Pakistan’s Elites Perception of Indo-Afghan Relations and its Strategic Implications for Pakistan; Challenges and Options in the Post-9/11 Era
Sarwat Sultana 27-SS/PhD PS&IR/F08 PhD Politics and International Relations
Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for Ph.D. in Politics and International Relations at the Faculty of Social Sciences, International Islamic University, Islamabad
Department of Politics & International Relations Faculty of Social Sciences International Islamic University Islamabad TABLE OF CONTENTS
No. Contents Page No
Dedication ………………………………………………………. vi Acknowledgment ……………………………………………….. vii Introduction of Interviewers ………………………………….. ix Abbreviations …………………………………………………… xi Abstract ………………………………………………………….. xiv Map ……………………………………………………………… xvi
1. INTRODUCTION …………………………………………………... 1
1.1 Background ……………………………………………………….. 1 1.2 Literature Review …………………………………………………… 8 1.3 Theoretical Framework……………………………………………… 22 1.4 Objectives of the Study ……………………………………………… 27 1.5 Research Methodology……………………………………………..... 28 1.6 Chapterization ……………………………………………………….. 31
2. HISTORY OF INDO AFGHAN RELATIONS ………………….. 38
2.1 History of Indo-Afghan Relations ………………………..…………. 38 2.2 Afghanistan Geo-Strategic Profile ………………………………….. 38 2.3 Geo-Strategic Profile of India ……………………………………… 41 2.4 Development of Relations between India and Afghanistan ………… 44 Conclusion ………………………………………………………….. 50
3. DEVELOPMENT OF INDO-AFGHAN RELATIONS IN POST 9/11 SCENARIO……………………………………………………… 54
3.1 Development of Indo-Afghan Relations in Post 9 /11 Scenario;… Political/ Social/ Economic/ Military…………………………….. 54 3.2 Assistance in development of Political Consciousness ………….. 56
3.3 Development Aid and Economic Influence ……………………… 64 3.4 Military and Strategic Partnership ……………………………….. 74 3.5 Co-operation in Social Sector ……………………………………. 76 3.6 Indian NGO’s and Civil Society’s Activities in Afghanistan ……… 81 3.7 Afghan Capacity Building ………………………………………... 82 3.8 Cultural influence and Co-operation ……………………………… 83 Conclusion………………………………………………………… 86 4. PERCEPTION OF PAKISTAN’S POLITICAL ELITES REGARDING POLITICAL AND SOCiAlIMPLICATIONS OF THE INDO-AFGHAN RELATIONS FOR PAKISTAN IN POST 9/11 ERA……………………………………………… 92
4.1 Nature of Indo-Afghan relations; Myth and reality ……………… 97 4.2 Afghan refugees problem ………………………………………… 102 4.3 Indian and Afghan Leadership……………………………………. 103 4.4 India’s Hegemonic Interest ………………………………………. 1154.5 Pakistan’s Negative Impression; General Perception of Afghans about Pakistan ……………………………………………122 4.6 Taliban; Their Origin………………………………………………126 4.7 Water Management Problems with Afghanistan; Future Scenario 130 4.8 Political perception about Afghanistan and India in Pakistan ……132 4.9 End Game and American’s Plans for Aftermath ………………… 138 4.10 Realistic approach in foreign policy formation …………………... 150 Conclusion ……………………………………………………….. 152
5. PERCEPTION OF PAKISTAN’S POLITICAL ELITES REGARDING SECURITY AND ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF INDO-AFGHAN RELATIONS FOR PAKISTAN IN POST 9/11 ERA…………………………………………………. 158
5.1 Stated and unstated objective of India in Afghanistan ………….... 159 5.2 Pakistan’s Investment in Afghanistan ……………………………. 165 5.3 TAPI Project …………………………………………………… 172 5.4 Most Favored Nation Status (MFN) for India …………………… 172 5.5 Cross Border Terrorism…………………………… …………….. 173 5.6 Pakistan Victum of Terrorism……………………………………..181 5.7 India’s Role in Afghanistan; Double Game………………………. 185 5.8 Pakistan and Afghanistan; Strategic Allies……………………….. 188 5.9 Proxy War …………………………………………… 192 5.10 Security Situation in Afghanistan: Future Scenario of Indo-Afghan Relations …………………………………………… 196 Conclusion ………………………………………………………... 201
6. CHALLENGES AND OPTIONS FOR PAKISTAN IN POST 9/11 ERA,DUE TO INDO-AFGHAN RELATIONS…
6.1 Political Challenges and Options available for Pakistan…………. 202 6.2 Millitary and Security Challenges: ……………………………… 211 6.3 Economic Challenge’s and available options ……………………. 216 6.4 Social Challenges ………………………………………………… 222
ii Conclusion ………………………………………………………... 227 Conclusion…………………………………………………………… 231
Bibliography Annexure A Annexure B
iii Dedication Dedicated to the numerous innocent Afghan children whowere born/raised and educated in foreign lands during thelast four decades but are still Afghans and are hoping for theirreturn back to their homeland one day.
vi Acknowledgement
Thanks to Allah for all the blessings showered on me throughout my life. I am unable even to acknowledge all.
I am writing these words after an intensive period of seven years, Today is the day: writing this note of thanks as the finishing touch on my thesis. It has been a period of intense learning for me, not at personal level only but on a comprehensive social level as well. Writing this thesis has had a big impact on me. I would like to reflect on the people who have supported and helped me so much throughout this period.
Firstly, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my supervisor Dr. Noor Fatima for the continuous support of my Ph.D. study and related research, for her patience, motivation, and immense knowledge. Her guidance helped me during all the time of research and writing of this thesis. I could not have imagined having a better advisor and mentor for my PhD study.
I would particularly like to thank my colleagues for their wonderful collaboration. You supported me greatly and were always willing to help me. I would particularly like to single out my friendDr. Maryam Lodhi. I want to thank you for your excellent cooperation.
Besides my advisor, I would like to thank the rest of my teachers; Prof. Dr. Amna Mehmood, Dr. Husnul Amin and Dr. SarfrazAnsari from NDU, for their insightful comments and encouragement; without their precious support it would not be possible to conduct this research. As there is always a woman behind a successful man and vice versa. Support, encouragement, backing, sacrifice; all were provided by my life partner without hesitation; my husband Dr. Sami-ud- Din. Words do not exist to thank him. My four teenage children, all were always willing to comfort me during the course of study
vii and thesis writing. Thank you my dear kids. I am proud of you all; SarimZeeshan, Saif, Saleh and SummiyaBano.
Last but not the least; I would like to thank my dear father and mother:The seedling of quest for knowledge was planted 40 years back by them which turned into a tree. Now I can’t find words to thank them both.Thank you to my brothers and sisters for supporting me spiritually throughout writing this thesis and my life in general.
viii
ABBREVIATIONS
AIIMS All India Institute Of Medical Sciences
ANSF Afghan National Security Forces
BJP BharatiyaJanata Party
CARS Central Asian Republics
CI Congress Indira Faction
CIA Central Intelligence Agency (America)
CII Confederation of Indian Industry
CPEC China Pakistan Economic Corridor
ICCR Indian Council for Cultural Relations
IGICH Indira Gandhi Institute of Child Health
IMMS Indian Medical Missions
INC Indian National Congress
IR International Relations
ISAF International Security Assistance Force Afghanistan
ISI Inter-Services Intelligence (Pakistan)
ITBP Indo-Tibetan Border Police
KGB Komitet gosudarstvennoy bezopasnosti
(Committee for State Security) Russia
KHAD Khadamat-e-Aetla’at-e-Dawlati(State Information Services Afghanistan)
KPK Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
LOC Line Of Control MFN Most favored Nation (Status)
MOU Memorandum of Understanding
MW Mega Watt
NA Northern Alliance
NAM Non-Aligned Movement
NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization
NDS National Directorate of Security Afghanistan
NGO Non-Governmental Organizations
PDPA People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan
PMA Pakistan Military Academy(Kakul)
RAW Research and Analysis Wing (India)
RECCA Regional Economic Cooperation Conference on Afghanistan
RTA The National Radio Television Afghanistan
SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation
SAIL Steel Authority of India Limited
SEWA Self Employed Women’s Association India
TAPI Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Pipeline
UAE United Arab Emirates
UN United Nation
UNDP United Nations Development Programme
UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees
USA United States of America
USAID United States Agency for International Development
xii USSR Union of Soviet Socialist Republics
WAPCOS Water and Power Consultancy Services (India)
WFP United Nation’s World Food Programme
WTC World Trade Center
xiii Abstract
Pakistan is located in South East Asia. Its geographical location is very important.
Its immediate neighbor Afghanistan has been the battle ground for regional and extra regional powers for the last three decades. Earlier USSR and now US led ISAF forces are present in the region. On the other hand, Pakistan has the history of hostile relations with its immediate neighbors, India and Afghanistan. India wants to play hegemonic role in the regional power politics. Indian perception is that the enemy of his enemy is his friend.
Therefore it developed and enjoyed good relationship with Afghanistan since independence. India is lavishly spending/investing in Afghanistan in social and strategic sectors. There has been a growing strategic relationship between India and Afghanistan since 9/11. Signing of the Strategic Treaty in 2012 between India and Afghanistan is of great significance for both of them. Withdrawal of ASSAF forces is expected in the near future. End game in Afghanistan and possible role of Pakistan and India in post 2014
Afghanistan is of great significance. In this scenario, the present study of Indo-Afghan relation is very important.
During literature review, very little print material on the topic Indo-Afghan
Relations was available. Current period is particularly written by Indian writers (Vinod,
Rahul Annand, Muni, Roy etc) who are biased and portray the soft and humanitarian face of India. While,in Afghanistan West is looking at the investment of India as peacemaking efforts (Fredric, Barbara, and Knonstadt). Very little has been written by Pakistanis
(Ashraf, Yousaf). Big knowledge gap exists therefore research has been conducted to fill the gap. The theory of Neo-Realism was applied.The trilateral relations of three nations
namely India, Pakistan and Afghanistan were a case study of the behavior of the states.
As states are the most important actors in international relations and seek material power
and capabilities in order to survive. National interest is much more important than
morality and values for any state.
Thesis argument is that the fast growing Indo-Afghan relations are stretching in
all the fields including politics, economic, military and security in the post 9/11 era. They are threatening Pakistan’s political, economic and security interests in the region.
Research work is comprised of 6 chapters. Fifth and sixth chapter include the
perception of Pakistan’s politicelites. They are of the view that India is definitely
investing in Afghanistan but it is a meager amount ascompared to the size of Indian
economy. They opine that Indian investment in Afghanistan has following purposes; to
minimize Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan, to create a soft image of India in
Afghanistan in order to achieve its hegemonic interests and to access Central Asian
Republic’s markets through Afghanistan. India is so far being successful in all of its
objectives. However, Pakistan’s policies don’t seem to bepolitically sound and fruitful in
near future. It is time to revisit policies of interference and strategic depth. Neighbours
can’t be changed, therefore, friendly and cordial relations with both the neighbors are
pre-requisite for peaceful future.
xv Political Map of Afghanistan, Pakistan and India
Source;http://www.surveyofpakistan.gov.pk/ accessed on 13 thApril ,2016
xvi xvii Chapter-I
1. Introduction
1.1 Background
Pakistan is located in the part of the world that is most affected by the changes in the structure of global politics. After a century, the era of what Kipling called the ‘Great
Game’, the territories that constitute present day Pakistan, Afghanistan and India are playing a historic role in the determination of the Asian balance of power. The geostrategic factor, perhaps more than any other, has acquired for Pakistan’s foreign policy a special significance. Due to this, in the international relations of Asia, Pakistan today occupies a central position of enormous strategic significance(Hasain, 2007. p32).
Underlying patterns of international rivalry, in which regional and extra-regional powers have their own general and particular interests, involve Pakistan into a natural intercourse with the nations of the South Asia particularly India and Afghanistan.
India and Afghanistan are two non-friendly neighbors of Pakistan. In case of
Afghanistan, despite of many commonalities in terms of culture (lingua franca, folklore) and religion (Islam), relations remain more or less hostile all the way long. Pakistan and
India fought three major wars and many significant border disputes between them are still going on. Afghanistan has never accepted the Durand Line, as border betweentwo countries. Both of these neighbors didn’t accept Pakistan as an independent sovereign state earlier. India has emerged as an important player in the on-going reconstruction and long term development program of Afghanistan(Crooette, 2008). India and Afghanistan have established a strong relationship based on their historical and civilization relations which get strengthened by India’s role in the reconstruction of Afghanistan. The principal stated objective of India’s development partnership, covering the entire Afghanistan and all sectors of developments, is to build indigenous Afghan capacity and institutions. Infact,
Republic of India was the only South Asian country to recognize the Soviet-backed
Democratic Republic of Afghanistan in the 1980’s. However, their relations were diminished during the 1990’s Afghan civil war and the Taliban government(Hasain,
2007p 36).
On the other hand, Afghanistan, being the only country which opposed Pakistan’s membership of the United Nations, has always maintained cold and hostile nature of relations with Pakistan. It maintained an ongoing claim of the entire trans-Indus territory stretching from Durand Line up to Attock. In this bid, Afghanistan extended undue support for Pakhtoonistan movement(Siddiqi, 2007)
The Durand Line has been a source of friction between Pakistan and Afghanistan since 1947. Afghanistan has, since then, refused to acknowledge the Durand Line as the international border between the two countries. It has demanded the integration of
Pashtu-speaking inhabitants on the Pakistani side of the frontier in Afghanistan or an autonomous, perhaps even independent, Pakhtoonistan(Sheikh, 2006). Since then,
Afghanistan’s provocative behavior has continued till today. The current phase of
2 relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan is characterized as that of the lowest ebb.
While denying Pakistan’s all positive moves taken to contain cross-border terrorism by the anti-US forces of Taliban, ex-Afghan President Hamid Karzai had shifted all the blames to Pakistan for increasing instability in his country, especially in the East and
South, due to insurgency of Taliban activists.
Pakistan extended cooperation during Soviet invasion and welcomed millions of
Afghan Refugees and yet Pakistan, nevertheless, has been suffering enormously for being helpful to Afghanistan(Editorial, 2007). Thus, for over 60 years, Kabul had continued to campaign for establishment of Pakhtoonistan which resulted in sour Pak-Afghan relations, sided with India, which if develops a full-fledged strategic co-operation, could sandwich Pakistan(Wadhwani, 2007).
To avoid this situation as being in between of both the fronts of hostile neighbors, one in east and the other in the west, Pakistan opted to ease the western front by supporting Taliban regime. Assuming, Pakistan would entertain a degree of influence inside Afghanistan, thus, envisaging a kind of strategic depth in the event of escalation of conflict with India(Siddiqi, 2007). Though, no doubt, the reign of Taliban provided
Pakistan with a sigh of relief as it was the only period during which Pakistan felt secure on its North-Western frontiers. But in those time periods, Al-Qaeda’s fundamentalist activists took asylum in Afghanistan and launched Jihad against United States. Ultimately the U.S, in the aftermath of the biggest ever military attack against America on
September 11, 2001, went on to hunt Al-Qaeda. Meanwhile, Pakistan was forced by the
3 United States to join the anti-Taliban coalition. The Taliban regime was over-thrown, giving way to a US-backed pro-West authority instituting secular order in the country(Burki, 2007)
After 9/11, Pakistan has become a pivotal player in the region to the powers present in the region. Many regional and extra regional powers got involved in Afghan crisis for more than three decades(Hosain, 2007. p 36). Pakistan is challenged for a new security structure in the world. It has inherited a complex antagonistic relationship with
India, a neighbor, several times of its size. The 9/11 has changed the course of history.
Accordingly, the USA quickly undertook military action against the Taliban regime in
Afghanistan. Pakistan had no option but to join USA. After 9/11, Pakistan has become a pivotal player in the region to the United States and Allied Forces as it is now a front line state against the War on Terror.
India has enjoyed cordial relations with Afghanistan since independence, strengthened by the signing of the Friendship Treaty in 1950(Ashraf, p.2007).
Afghanistan and India are not sharing any border but Afghanistan does represent India’s real politick power interests. According to India’s perception, India is the victim of terrorism generated from Afghan-Pak region, therefore an India friendly- Afghanistan keeps Pakistan in check and takes attention from the embattled Kashmir region.
Moreover, India is helping and has recently heavily invested in Afghanistan. On the other hand, Pakistan is paying for helping Afghans to oust the Soviets from their country.
This price has literally worsened the situation of law and order in Pakistan with growing
4 suicide attacks and Drone attacks in cities and villages. These incidents are continuing to pose threat to the very fabric of the country. Pakistan can no longer afford to succumb to all outside pressures to the determinant of its own interests.
Pakistan cannot disregard Indian diplomacy in Afghanistan as it ultimately counteracts Pakistani influence there. Also, the intelligence agencies of Pakistan hold responsible the Indian consulates in Jalalabad, Kandahar, Herat and Mazar -i-Sharif for provoking troubles and insurgencies across the border in Baluchistan and the North West
Frontier Province (now Khyber Pukhtoon Khaw)(Wadhwani, 2007).
Afghanistan and India are not sharing any border and are not a direct neighbor, therefore, not obliged to get involved in the Afghan crisis. After Soviet invasion in
Afghanistan, Indians were silent supporters. They never condemned Russians for their brutal policies viz-a-viz poor Afghans. Instead, Research Analysis Wing(RAW) of India was closely working with andKomitet Gosudar Stvennoy Bezopasnosti(KGB)
(Committee for State Security) Russia and Khadamate-e-Aetlaat-e-Dawalati-(State intelligence Agency Afghanistan)(KHAD). Even India voted against seven United
Nations (UN) resolutions regarding Soviets withdrawal from Afghanistan. During
Taliban tenure, India’s role and relation were diminished in Afghanistan as India was fearful of Islamists as role model for insurgents in Kashmir. That’s why, they fully supported Northern Alliance which was an alliance of Tajiks and Uzbek speaking Parties who were openly opposing Taliban and their Pashtun ethinicity. When Hamid Ali Karzai
5 took office, India extended its co-operation to his country and has invested in many sectors in Afghanistan.
After signing the Strategic Partnership Treaty, between India and Afghanistan, in
2012, a first of its kind in South Asia, India is in a position to enjoy a considerable influence in Afghanistan(Anand, 2011) Mr. Manmohan Singh, prime minister of India’s visit to Kabul in May 2011, when the treaty was signed, was the immediate response/reaction of the Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Yusuf Raza Gilani and his armed services chiefs visit to Kabul in April 2011. During this visit, Pak- Afghan leadership pledged for future friendship and co-operation in many fields of common interest.
However, during the visit of Indian Prime Minister to Kabul, Hamid Karzai categorically said that India and Pakistan are twin brothers while India and Afghanistan are friends(Anand, 2011)
According to India’s Foreign office brief, India has three stated objectives in
Afghanistan, as under;
I. Denying any political or military space to Inter-Services Intelligence Pakistan
(ISI) or other Islamist groups to support Taliban
II. To break the relations between norco-trafficking and insurgency
III. To secure Afghanistan as a trade and transport link to hydrocarbon rich Central
Asian Republics (CARs)
6 The India–Afghanistan relationship is not a simple bilateral engagement. India's
Afghan policy is driven by and is dependent on, many extraneous factors such as India's troubled relationship with Pakistan, its search for a land transit to Central Asia through
Iran and Afghanistan and its concerns regarding use of Afghan territory by Pakistan to the detriment of Indian interests. Given the geographical constraints, India has relied on
Iran for land access to Afghanistan. This has been complicated by Iran–US relations; the two countries with whom India shares common interests. India has also tried to address
Pakistani apprehensions regarding its engagement in Afghanistan. Its decision to resume bilateral dialogue in spite of domestic pressures against any such initiative, post-Mumbai and the inclusion of Baluchistan in the joint statement issued at Sharm-al-Sheikh in 2009 are part of New Delhi's policy to build confidence with Islamabad. Simultaneously, India has gained enormous political capital through its economic engagement with other countries of the region. This is likely to help it to sustain its presence in Afghanistan after
2014, when the Taliban might be a part of the government in Kabul(Pattanaik, 2011).
Pakistan’s security concerns are based on the belief that Pakistan needs to continue to fight India for its existence. These beliefs have only added to the traditional rivalry pitting Hindu India against a Muslim Pakistan. Countering India is Pakistan’s basis for its nuclear deterrence, the need to secure its western border, and maintaining the defense budget as such a high priority(Lavoy, 2006). Pakistan also fears that India has a number of plans with the objective of destroying Pakistan in an effort to reclaim South
Asia. India and Bhutan were the first nations to recognize Bangladesh after East Pakistan seceded in 1971. Following wars with Pakistan in 1947, 1965, 1971 and 1999, India is
7 currently waging a proxy war from inside Afghanistan(Javed, 2010). From Pakistan’s point of view, this proxy war is aided by the use of Indian terrorist training camps in
Afghanistan used to train Baluch dissidents(Afghan Soil Being Used for Terrorism: ISI
Chief, 2010). Pakistan believes that the United States has the leverage to control India, and therefore, by default, sees Indian efforts to destabilize Pakistan as condoned by
America..In the aftermath of the 2008 Indian embassy bombing in Kabul, the Afghan
Foreign ministry quoted India as “brother country” and the relationship between the two as one which “no enemy can hamper”. The relationship between India and Afghanistan boost up in 2012 with the signing of a strategic partnership agreement, Afghanistan’s first since Soviet invasion of 1979.
This study would therefore, focus the nature of the relationships between India and Afghanistan and its strategic implications for Pakistan in the light of the perception of the political elites, especially in the international scenario of Post-9/11 events.
In this regard the following major challenges will be focused in this paper:
1. Growing strategic relationship between India and Afghanistan, especially
after signing the Strategic Treaty.
2. Emerging inclination of India in the direction of Afghanistan and vice
versa.
3. Hegemonic interests of India within the region.
4. End game in Afghanistan and possible role of Pakistan and India in post
2014 Afghanistan
8 5. A new frontline and battle field for cold war between two old rivals
6. Reasons behind the lavish spending/investment of India in Afghanistan in
social as well as strategic sectors.
1.2 Literature Review
During the data collection, very few books on the Indo-Afghan relations were found that explained the exact implications, challenges and options for Pakistan. Much of the available material written by the foreign writers especially Indians is biased and even the facts are molded and misinterpreted to defame Pakistan. So in order to find the neutral and accurate facts, it was necessary to find the books, articles, journals and other published material written by the Pakistani writers. But, again the biggest hurdle was to find out the books of Pakistani writers which could be called as the true picture of the
Indo-Afghan relations and its implications for Pakistan. Research work in the evidence to find the Indo-Afghan relations in various fields against Pakistan was not available in abundance. The reliable reports available on their relations were found nowhere in the articles or published material of the foreign writers. In most of the cases, the available materials presented one sided view. Most of the foreign publications portrayed and defended their relations as a foundation to maintain peace in the world. Indo-Afghan relations could not attract large number of researchers. The lack of material poses the main hurdle in this study. The whole material directly related to Indo-Afghan relations consists of articles and probably few books which basically deal with historical perspective. Very few books are available and very little work has been done on Indo-
Afghan relations in the context of post 9/11 era. Mostly scholars who belong to India are
9 working in this area and therefore presenting Indian perspective exclusively. Very few
Pakistani and western researchers are working on this topic. The available material on the topic in print media is almost 95% from Indian authors, therefore presenting their point of view and one sided picture.
Any neutral/objective view is completely missing. Therefore, a big knowledge gap exists. In order to have the picture of both sides, this study has been planned. This study is conducted in order to analyze the nature of relations between two staunch enemies of Pakistan, in new strategic environment. Few of the books and articles that have been read and reviewed in this perspective are discussed below. It is pertinent to mention here that under mentioned articles are the only available sources of information regarding Indo-Afghan relations and their implication for Pakistan in post 9/11 era.
Since Indo-Afghan relation is an important subject of international relations, following two points are required to be considered before proceeding further:
a) India has no direct access to Afghanistan and
b) India is not a participant in War on Terror and there is reluctance on the part of
United States of America& allies to let India enter into it (Muni, 2009, p. 105).
Afghanistan was a buffer zone between Tzar’s Russia and Imperial India during the Great Game in the 19th century. However the un-happy state of affairs between India and Pakistan, the two successor states of Imperial India, lost its raison d’être. It became instrumental in forcing Afghans into the Soviet Arms by denying economic, cultural and commercial links and aid by the Sub-Continent (Bajlai, 1986. p.181).
10 Striving for super power’s status, India’s credibility is constantly being undermined by its incapacity to put an end to its dispute with Pakistan and, generally speaking to effectively assume the role of a superpower in South Asia. It is to Pakistan’s advantage to maintain this situation in order to check Indian hegemony in the Indo-Pak
Sub-Continent(Grare, 2006.p. 26).
Indians are quite scared of the Taliban and their influence in any future setup in
Afghanistan(Sharma, 2009). The Indian’s perception is that the Taliban, Al-Qaida and
Pakistan all were used against Soviets by Central Intelligence Agency (America) (CIA).
Now together, they form an albatross around the US’s neck. After the death of Osama bin
Laden, half the mission of United States has accomplished. The only hitch remains is
Pakistan. Therefore, India is a solution of this problem(Jeganathan. 2011. p. 45)
India is using its aid as a soft power to win the hearts and minds of Afghans. Only in this way, they can influence any future setup of government in Afghanistan(Pandey,
2011). India can play an important part in economic development of Afghanistan.
However, USA and Pakistan are not in favor of India’s role playing in security sectors reforms. They are of the view that India must be limited to the developmental activities only(Yusuf, 2011). Although, land route to the Central Asian States via Pakistan and
Afghanistan is shorter in length and cheaper in cost but due to the nature of India-
Pakistan relations, India is looking for alternative routes to Central Asia via Iran
(Balooch, 2009, pp. 25-29)
11 In the new regional scenario, India appears in tune with the logic of the new international order which continue the search for economic power. While in Pakistan, the old logic of confrontation still survives, whatever its tremendous financial and structural cost is (Racine: 2001).
While discussing the appropriate measures to be taken for Bush administration,
Tellis(Tellis, 2008) mentioned many fears of Pakistan Army and major one was Indian aims in Pakistan. Therefore, US Think Tanks are also well in picture of the actual scenario. By encouraging Pakistan to have bi-lateral economic relations with Indians,
USA’s objective is to have the effect of integrating Afghanistan into the dynamic Indian economy via Pakistan (Tellis, 2008). On the other hand, Pakistan believes that USA and
India are the cause of all the negative actions and events in Pakistan (Kohelmoss, 2010, p.
46-.p 67)
India’s economic stakes are rising across the region including Afghanistan, where
Indian firms are only ones who are prepared to risk blood and treasure to exploit its mineral resources (Sanjeev, 2006) If three countries mainly India, Afghanistan and
Pakistan can reach an understanding and let India develop Afghan capacity leading to regional economic integration, Pakistan too will become a winner. In the age of globalization, following any other course will result in Pakistan lagging behind (Ashraf,
2007).
12 India saw the Taliban as a manifestation of Islamic extremism that India is battling in Kashmir and which has carried out terrorist attacks in New Delhi (Kroonstad,
2006). Pakistan’s security perceptions are largely determined by regional developments.
It perceives the security of South Asia as being linked to the involvement and power interplay of the super powers in the region.
The recent history of Indo-Afghan relations is based on warm and cordial relations. Hamid Karzai, President of Afghanistan, visited India in 2006 and signed three
Memorendums of Understanding. In 2008, Karzai again visited New Delhi. In return, Mr.
Manmohan Singh, Prime Minister of India, visited Kabul in 2011. India reacted strongly on the killing of Burhanuddin Rabbani, the leader of Jamiat-e Islami Afghanistan
(Islamic Society of Afghanistan). He served as President from 1992-1996 until he was forced to leave Kabul because of the Taliban takeover of the city (Anand, 2011). Indians are quite futuristic in their approach as they are talking in terms of post 2014 scenario
(Pandey, 2011).
Ramesh Trivedi, in his book India’s relations with its neighbors (Trivedi,
2008),attempts to assess the bilateral relations, co-operation, trade accords and understandings of India with her neighboring countries. Not only, the geographically adjacent neighbors but all the member states of South Asian Association for Regional
Co-operation (SAARC) are part of this discussion. The book with eight chapters, gives fair account of treaties and accords, political and economic co-operations, trade relations, wars and conflicts of each neighboring nation with regards to India. However, this book
13 was written in 2008 and the recent developments with context to Indo-Afghan relations are missing.
The Afghan war and its geopolitical implications for India (Haider, 2004)by
Salman Haider is another effort in this field. It is a collection of research papers presented at a seminar, held at the Academy of Third World Studies. This seminar was focused on geo-political implications of the Afghan war only. Therefore, many aspects which are under discussion are absolutely missing in this study. Moreover, the updated situation and recent developments in this scenario are specifically missing and a knowledge gap exists in this context.
Edward Kolodziej and Roger E. Kanet in their book From Super Power to
Besieged Global Power: Restoring World Order after the Failure of Bush Doctrine
(Kolodziej, 2008) expressed their opinion that Pakistan had been playing the double game since the start of the War on Terror. It was supporting the war against terror in
Afghanistan half-heartedly and on the other side, it was busy in fanning the terrorism in
India. The intelligence reports confirmed that the terrorists were supported by the elements in Pakistan. All that showed that the opinion expressed by the writers was based on mere their assumptions. Pakistan had already suffered a huge loss after being indulged in the war against terrorism. Being the front line state in the war against terror, it had faced the reaction of Al-Qaeda and Taliban in the form of terrorist’s activities. All the major cities of Pakistan remained on the hit list of the terrorists and not only security personnel, but also common people were targeted by the terrorists. So to blame Pakistan
14 for playing the double game was just the creation of imagination as it had nothing to do
with reality.
G. Santosh in his article Importance of Indo-US Nuclear Deal(Santosh, 2008)) wrote that the deal would enhance India’s profile in the region. According to him that deal would surely de-hyphenate India and Pakistan and India would be considered as the
Asian Tiger which could implement its decisions on the surrounding countries including
Pakistan(Santosh, 2008). It could be acceptable that the deal would de-hyphenate India and Pakistan.
Larry Hanover and Peter Chalk (Larry Hanauer, 2012) in their joint paper examines the strategies of India and Pakistan in Afghanistan and their implications for US and the region. The authors are of the view that the Indian policies are driven by the broader regional and international interests of India. However, Pakistan’s strategic policies towards Afghanistan are India centric and based on the age old doctrine of strategic depth. Army is the basic formulator of foreign policy of Pakistan therefore these policies are not friendly for Afghan people. While India is better equipped, economically developed and having large consumer base economy, therefore, Afghan government is more tilted towards India.
As Al-Qaida is strengthening its ties with non-US elements so Pakistan is the strong hold of Al- Qaida. The authors suggest that United States of America should trust more on India for any developmental work in Afghanistan. This research study was
15 conducted in 2011-2012. Much has been changed so for. Therefore, fresh research is required to define the future role of regional powers in post-NATO Afghanistan.
Muhammad Khurshid Khan in his article titled “Projected Security Environments of Pakistan in Post- Afghanistan War Scenario”(Khan, 2011) discusses about the post-
US withdrawal situation in Afghanistan and possible emerging scenario. He fears the rising of terrorism, extremism and expected future co-operation of Taliban and extremist groups of Pakistan. As Indian Influence is increasing, the author suspects that in this scenario, Pakistan will be between the devil and the deep sea. It will certainly create problems for Pakistan’s security. The author has presented a theory and the researcher will look for certain incidents in Indo-Afghan relations where it really happened.
In an article “Taliban phenomenon- post-US withdrawal(Nayar, 2013) published in, Pakistan Today, KuldipNayar discusses about another dimension of Afghan problem.
He is of the view that Taliban factor will create problems for governments of
Afghanistan, India and Pakistan. He wrote that Taliban were even posing great threat to the Indian developmental activities in Afghanistan as well as to the infrastructure built by
Indians inside Afghanistan. On the other hand, they will not let the government of Nawaz
Sharif to maintain peace in Pakistan. Therefore, it is the call of the hour to adopt a realistic approach that Indians and Pakistanis should jointly counter this Taliban phenomenon. Taliban are common enemy so the fight against them must be jointly fought. It is certainly an in-between way but keeping in mind the hostile nature of
16 relations between both the countries, it is almost an impossible suggestion and even much difficult to apply.
Malik Hafeez in his book, “US Relations with Afghanistan and Pakistan: The
Imperial Dimension(Malik, 2008)”, discusses the relations of these three countries in detail. The foreign policies of China, Russia and Afghanistan are also discussed with reference to Afghanistan and Pakistan’s relation with USA. Author is of the view that role of USA is like an imperial power and internationally USA is playing this role globally while India is playing the same role regionally in South Asia. He mentioned that
India is determined to play this role in Bhutan, Nepal, Afghanistan and Pakistan. It wants to play the role of guardian of the entire region and is currently working for USA providing certain favors.
The author has elaborated the Indians hegemonic designs in the region by elaborating the history of relationship between India and its neighbors like Sri Lanka,
Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Pakistan. He is of the view that despite of such a bad track record, USA wants to assign the greater role to India in order to counter China in
South East Asia.
This analysis is quiet realistic in the pretext of current visit of Obama to India and the future prospects of their relations in the form of aid and trade agreements.
17 The book titled, “The New Afghanistan; Pawn of America(Ram, 2005)” written by Major General Samay Ram, draws a realistic sketch of Indian role and ambitions in
Afghanistan. He wrote that although, India was enjoying friendly relations with Russia since long but US presence in the region provided a golden opportunity to Indians.
During Taliban rule, they were not allowed to enter in Afghanistan but after US arrival in the region, Indians won their favor. The Indians were fully aware of USA’s intentions of prolong stay in the region. Therefore, their foreign policy makers fully initiated friendly relationship with Americans. They have obviously vested interests in the region that’s why they prefer to exert themselves in the regional geopolitics to avail the opportunity.
Although Pakistan is an old friend of USA but certainly it is not a trusted one.
India, while watching every move closely, offer its co-operation and getting a lot out of it. The author, being a part of military policy elites, is presenting the actual picture of
Indian mind set. That’s why it is appropriate to write that Indians are actually one of the players of the new great game in the region.
HareshKapoor in his book “Emerging India: Diplomatic Journey(Kapoor, 2004)” gives detail account of Indian foreign policy since independence to date. He, at length discussed about formulation of foreign policy and its parameters. While discussing different countries, the author has discussed about Afghanistan at lengths. He highlighted the Indian role in its extended neighborhood as well. He elaborates three dimensions of
Indian policy i.e. domestic, regional and international. His emphasis is on economic
18 factor. He says that India is a rising economy and it has to look for new venues to sell goods and services. Therefore, he took Afghanistan as a market with lot of potentials.
A book titled “Rescuing Afghanistan(Maley, 2006)” by William Maley was written in 2006. The author gives comprehensive account of situation in Afghanistan in post 9/11 era. He wrote that the politics in Afghanistan are the politics of bargaining and compromises. The ministers of Karzai government are corrupt. Narcotics money is the base of economy.However, government is getting its finances from foreign aid.
Interestingly, that foreign aid goes back to the western contractors. Taliban are continuously destroying all the peace activities and infrastructure. All the human development indicators are very low that’s why the country is unable to survive if USA leaves. He suggests that USA should prefer India over Pakistan as Pakistan is pro-
Taliban. He mentions the opening of many Indian consulates in different Afghan cities.
He considers their opening as a step towards lasting peace in Afghanistan.
The author is unduly supporting Indian stance on different issues. He has not mentioned the sacrifices and losses in financial and physical term which were bearded by
Pakistan nation collectively in the form of terrorist activities.
Another study conducted by Mahindra Ved, “India’s neighbors(Ved, 2005)” provides detail account of Indian relations with her neighbors. While writing about
Afghanistan, author gives details of all developmental work conducted by Indians inside
Afghanistan. Even he declared that Karzai was Indian candidate and choice. Because he
19 received his higher education from Indian universities, he was considered most suitable presidential candidate. He presents all activities of India in Afghanistan as efforts for peace keeping in the region. It is an open secret that all the Indian neighbors were engaged by Indians in war like situations many times. Its hegemonic policy in the region is a well-known fact.
When the author discusses about Pakistan, he gives very negative remarks which has made this book a biased and a one sided book.
The book titled, “The New Great Game: Blood and Oil in Central
Asia(Kleveman, 2003)” is written by Lutz Kleveman. As a war zone journalist, he traveled the most troubled areas of the world. He extensively visited Central Asia and
South East Asia. He felt same as Rudyard Kipling once wrote in Kim that there was a great game being played. He met scores of people from all walk of life; military and political elites, journalists, warlords, farmers, businessmen, villagers and city dwellers, social workers. He concluded that every person in this region is part of a new Great
Game where everyone is in pursuit of his own interests. The energy resources rich
Central Asian States, Afghanistan and Baluchistan are now the focus of the world. Now, in this New Great Game, there are many players, big and small. Russia, United States of
America, United Kingdom, China, India, Pakistan and Iran are big players. Local warlords, border guards of all states, local military officials, political elites, government officials, farmers and common men, all are getting benefit out of it. In this situation, author is of the view that only stability in the region will end this game. All the local and
20 international players should confine to their limits. World peace must be one’s priority instead of personal interests.
The book under discussion is first-hand account of the region. He emphasized on the role played by international players but ignored the role being played by locals for instance, India and Pakistan which are involved very much in the region. By providing some more inside account of the role of local players, the book could be a complete document but this aspect is, however, missing.
The book titled “The Afghan Muddle; A Lost Opportunity(Pant, 2014)” is written by Harsh V. Pant. It is a detail account of available opportunities for India in post with drawl Afghanistan in 2014 and beyond. Author is of the view that India has mainly two interests in Afghanistan; theone is free and stable Afghanistan. While explaining this statement, the author further elaborates that Afghanistan which should be free from
Taliban as well as free from Pakistan. He further suggests that for the sake of the stability of Afghanistan, it is necessary to keep the Jihadi elements, the proxy of Pakistan, away from it. These Jihadi are also creating hurdles for India in Kashmir.
The author is making Afghanistan a land bridge with Central Asian States. Again the resources of this region are the core and solid reason of this cordial policy. The author suggests that it is the immediate requirement of the situation to develop very warm relations with Afghanistan to safeguard its interests. This book represents the point of view of one side only that’s why it is `a biased book.
21 In “Zone of Crisis; Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan(Saikal, 2014)”, Amin Saikal, presents a theory that historical legacies are likely to affect the outcome of long-term policies. It is a useful comparative study of the areas which are at the edge of storm. All these four countries have many common things.For instance, all of them are majority
Muslim countries. They have either little or no history of proper democratic set up.
Therefore, they have common problem of low economic indicators, dysfunctional governance, corrupt political elites, sectarian issues and facing ideological wars within their countrymen. Moreover, they are also facing foreign intervention or interference which is ultimately disturbing their life security. The shortsightedness of the leaders has ultimately pushed the people into the web of poverty.
Being a part of this region, the author has elaborated the link of past with present in a series of events with the help of cultural and historical background but undue emphasis is on internal problems of governance of these particular countries. The author has ignored the role of neighboring countries which is very significant in case of
Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq and Iran.
The above literature review shows that Indian perspective is mostly reflected in the existing literature; where as a Pakistani perspective is clearly missing in the available literature on the subject. The researcher will try to address the missing perspective of the issue in the context of whole issue of Indo-Afghan relations. This will help in devising
22 the future policy vision in the post-withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan and regional economic and political player.
1.3 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
security dilemma hedgemony anarchy
Neorealism state National interest
Material strategic interests Power
Foreign policy and foreign relations is an emerging area of interest in the discipline of international relations. Especially 9/11 has changed the course of history.
Many studies were and are being conducted to study the post 9/11 era. These are scientific as well as popular works. The present study of Indo-Afghan relations and its implications for Pakistan is also a scientific study in the post 9/11 context. The theoretical approach which the researcher is going to apply on this study is neo-realism. It is not the approach which is the only possible or purposive one but nevertheless, it might be helpful to come to the results and conclusions.
23 In this study, the trilateral relations of three nations namely India, Afghanistan and Pakistan are taken as a case study for explaining the behavior of the states. It means that the researcher is guided by the assumption that neo-realist theory of relations is in this context, the most significant theory for explaining the role of states in international relations and their analysis. In international relations, realism is considered to be the dominant model for the last sixty years. It provided the useful framework in order to understand the international order after World War I, and Cold War.
The analysis work will be based on following hypothesis;
When analyzing the Indo-Afghan relations and its implication for Pakistan in post
9/11 era, it seems to be the most persistent, evidential, conclusive and purposive way to doing it by using a neo-realistic framework and approach.
For verifying or falsifying this hypothesis, it will proceed in this way. First of all the basic assumptions and theoretical framework of neo-realistics will be presented.
Afterwards, Indo-Afghan relations and their implications will be presented and analyzed.
The empirical evidences and findings will help us to proof our main stance on the topic.
Realism is the international relations (IR) theory that is probably the most widely recognized by the general public. It is associated with such familiar terms and concepts as geopolitics, balance of power, realpolitik, and raison d'etat. Realism is known for its emphasis on, and is often conflated with, rationality. It presents an unsentimental and pessimistic view of international relations as being in a perpetual state of conflict and war
24 where power, security, material wealth and capabilities motivate states far more than ideas or values.
Despite the implications of its name, "realism" is not the only valid theory of international relations. Like other international relation theories, realism has its strengths and weaknesses. Moreover, there is no single formulation of realism. Instead, Realism refers to a family of theories built around common core assumptions. Realist scholars disagree, for example, whether states are offensively or defensively inclined and whether human nature or the structure of the international state system is a more important driver of state behavior. Some scholars even disagree over what constitutes realism's "core" - or the trunk of the realist tree from which the diverse array of realist theories emanate like limbs and branches. Like all other IR theories, realism is a complicated enterprise.
However, the following are its agreed and most fundamental tenets:
I. States are the most important actors in international relations.
II. States exist in a condition of anarchy. This condition is comparable to the
state of nature in which man existed prior to civilization and government.
With no world government or higher authority to enforce rules and claims,
states must look out for themselves and assume the worst.
III. The international state system is characterized by great uncertainty. States
can never be certain about the capabilities or intentions of other states -
even those of ostensible allies.
IV. States seek material power and capabilities in order to survive in an
uncertain and anarchic world. Militaries, industry, natural resources,
25 strategically-located and strategically-endowed land or territory,
populations, and economic wealth are all manifestations of such material
power and capabilities.
V. States experience a security dilemma. A security dilemma is a dynamic in
which states spiral toward conflict, often unintentionally. Anarchy and
uncertainty create the incentive for states to acquire military capabilities
and to increase their power. One may do so for purely defensive purposes,
but because states cannot know whether another's intentions are defensive
or offensive, a state's acquisition of military and other capabilities will
elicit concern and reaction in other countries. This dynamic can lead to
arms races and to war.
Since in the World politics, there is power struggle between the states, every state tries its best to make the use of its national interest in the more appropriate way. Such a system leads to an order called balance of power, in which every state triesto achieve more power so that none of it could be dominated (Baylis, 1972. p.4). This notion leads us to an enquiry into some basic but very recurrent concepts of ‘national interest’, power and prevention against foreign dominance-sovereignty. Contributions by neo-realist in security studies have had a significant impact on policy community. Both defensive and offensive neo-realists claim that the competition and uncertainty remains in the world.
Due to which power politics dominate the policy paradigm which makes the structure of international system. The main issue which is being faced is that everyone is trying to
26 understand the contemporary world politics.Plenty of material is needed to be looked for explaining the important political processes.
In other words, a policy has to be chalked out that is beyond the immediate available options and must takes into account the probable reaction of the other group.
The first move is, therefore, the hardest to make in foreign policy since it sets off a chain and counter action. Over a period of time, the interaction yields a reliable diplomatic method in inter-group co-operation as well as conflict. The self-help itself leads towards the emergence of diplomatic method and international law(Yunus, 2003. p .34). The lid of national interest was placed even more firmly over the values and the processes that produced foreign policy(Yunus, 2003. p. 68)
The explanation of the foreign policy as a concept at the base of national interest in the context of international cooperation and conflict remains consistently valid even if one introduces into the explanation the continuing concern of foreign policy not only with survival and security but also with vital domestic interests like national progress economic and social welfare, social and political orientation of the state(Yunus, 2003. p.
72). The concepts of the state and its interest, raison d’état are central to the theory of foreign policy. The modern nation-state is the basis of both unity as well as diversity in global affairs. For that reason, it has to be given a central place in any contemporary discussion of foreign policy inseparable from the modern concept of the nation-state is the unquestionable and sanctified character of its existence or its vital principle (raison
27 d’état) which has both an internal as well as an external focus, that leads to the formulation of domestic policy and foreign policy respectively(Yunus, 2003. p. 78).
Modern foreign policy has evolved far beyond Machiavelli'sconcept that ruler is bestsuited for officewho is capable of varying her/his conduct from good to evil and back again “as fortune and circumstances dictate”but it is by no means completely free of the impact of raison d’état in its evolved form. Indeed, the vital principle (raison d’état) has evolved into what is now called national interest which is the responsibility of foreign policymakers to protect and to promote(Yunus, 2003. p. 80).
1.4 Objectives of the Study
This study aims to explore the perception of political elites about:
I. The impacts of India and Afghanistan’s relations on Pakistan’s economy.
II. To which extent their bilateral relations are beneficial for them and
threatening for Pakistan?
III. The nature of Indo- Afghan bilateral relations and their strategic implications
for Pakistan.
IV. To find out the military and security implications of Indo-Afghan relations for
Pakistan.
V. To find out the political implications of India-Afghan relations for Pakistan.
VI. To find out economic implications of Indo-Afghan relations for Pakistan.
These above mentioned objectives will be achieved with the help of primary as well as secondary sources.
28 1.5 Research Methodology
This study is basically focused on the post 9/11 era. Therefore, current dimension of Pakistan, India and Afghanistan relations are discussed. It will cover the period from
1998 to 2012.
Primarily this study is qualitative in nature and based on analysis of the perceptions of political elites about Indo-Afghan relations in post 9/11 era and challenges and options available for Pakistan. It focuses on situational analysis. During the course of this study/ research work, a combination of qualitative and quantative methodologies was used in order to collect primary data. Qualitative data was described in narrative forms. It was a detailed description.
Two kinds of sources will be consulted during the course of this study namely primary sources and secondary sources. Primary sources include official documents of governments of Pakistan, India and Afghanistan. The statements of the officials concerned at government level are also of immense importance and are part of primary sources.
The secondary sources included books, research journals, periodicals, reports, encyclopedias, newspaper articles and internet material. The researcher has consulted articles online, published Journals, policy papers, reports, government documents and
29 other published and unpublished material to collect data that deal with the Indo-Afghan relations and their strategic implication for Pakistan. Different web sites were also visited. Official reports of international organizations like UNESCO, UNDP, and USAID are also important sources. Both primary and secondary source materials are used in the dissertation to understand the whole extent of the implications. Preferably, primary sources are consulted/ sighted. However, wherever the primary sources are not available, the secondary sources are used. In this regard different visits and meetings were arranged.
It was ensured that the sources are valid, authentic and original. The contents of the documents were checked too. The sources were cross checked for validity and originality.
The researcher followed all that was necessary for analytical study.
Besides that, data collection was done through informal interviews, active observation and discussions in order to get in-depth insight of the issue. Hand written notes were taken during the interview for the purpose of extending questions or researchers personal notes for further investigation.
Interviews were audio-taped. The interviews and observations were conducted very carefully. The researcher was stuck to the ethics of non-interventionism and neither manipulated nor stimulated the subject. The field interviews were taken from key informants of this work. They were journalists/media elites, policymakers (office bearers&bureaucrat), politicians/ political elites and military elites. The field interviews were planned as the proposed sample of key informants was as follows;
30 Journalists/Media Elites
Policymakers (Office bearers &bureaucrat/Professionals/practioners)
Politicians/Political Elites
Military Elites
In order to achieve reliability, triangulation of the multiple data sources was done to clarify meaning, verify data or interpretations. The researcher tried to approach all the evidence, considering the rival interpretations and will address the most significant aspect of the study. In order to assure quality, the prior knowledge was utilized by the researcher.
Due to the time and cost constraints, this study was limited to the implications of
Indo-Afghan relations on Pakistan after 9/11 incident. Since, it is a vast subject, researcher has decided to narrow down the study, to the extent of the post-9/11 period has been selected for study and research. Following are the de-limitations of this study;
Authentication of certain important documents is very difficult
I. Absence of a set mechanism/system for the formulation of foreign policy
in Pakistan
II. Massive displacement of officials concerned with foreign office in
Afghanistan in yester years
III. Deliberate destruction/distortion of records by different political/non-
political actors
IV. Non availability of any funding/financial help for travelling or gathering
data from primary sources
31 V. Due to the hostile nature of relations with both India and Afghanistan,
certain classified documents are not accessible/approachable to a Pakistani
scholar
VI. Some important relevant official documents are not accessible due to
being classified.
5. ORGANIZATION OF THE CHAPTERS
The thesis comprises of seven chapters, as per following brief of the chapters.
Chapter One: Introduction
The very first chapter consists of introduction to the topic. The importance and scheme of study is discussed. The literature review and methodology are the part of this chapter.
Chapter Two: History of Indo-Afghan relations
This chapter covers the basis of the Indo-Afghan relations. The back ground of the Indo-Afghan relations and the reasons behind the relations are explained.
Chapter Three: Development of Indo-Afghan Relations in post 9/11 era
The development of the relations of India and Afghanistan in post 9/11 era and the ups and down in these relations are discussed in this chapter. The objectives and interests of both the countries behind the agreements and their mutual support are chalked out. The direct and indirect impacts of those agreements on Pakistan are discussed.
32 Chapter Four: Political and Social Implications of the Indo-Afghan relations for
Pakistan
This chapter will present the perception of Pakistani elites about the co-operation between India and Afghanistan in political and social fields and its implications for
Pakistan which has disturbed the balance of power in South Asia. .
Chapter Five: Military and security implications of Indo- Afghan relations for
Pakistan
In this chapter the economic and security implications of Indo-Afghan relations for Pakistan in the light of the perception of political elites are discussed at length. This chapter also discusses military and security ties between India and Afghanistan which are potential threat for the security of Pakistan. Therefore, their strategic implications for
Pakistan are also discussed.
Chapter six: Challenges and options for Pakistan in post 9/11 era
In the post 9/11 era, many challenges are there and are posing threat for Pakistan.
These challenges are discussed in detail in this chapter. Beside these challenges, there are certain options for Pakistan in the regional context. In the perception of political elites, detail analysis of these challenges and options are the part of this chapter.
Conclusion:
33 In this section, the research in this thesis on Indo-Afghan relations and their strategic implications for Pakistan will be concluded with some of the suggession to assist the policy maker of the foreign policy of Pakistan to meet the emerging challenges efficiently.
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38 Chapter -Two
2.1 Historical Development of Indo-Afghan Relations
Afghanistan is situated in the west of Indo-Pak subcontinent. Earlier, before independence from British rule, Afghanistan was direct neighbor of India but after independence of India and Pakistan, now is sharing border with Pakistan. Therefore,
India is situated in extended neighborhood of Afghanistan. Due to its geo-strategic location, Afghanistan has remained the focus of Indian regional policy since its inception.
Before going into detail background of Indo-Afghan relations during the course of history, it is appropriate to have a bird eye view of Afghanistan and it’s near past history.
2.2 Afghanistan’s geo-strategic profile
Afghanistan is basically a land locked country that covers an area of 647,497 sq. km, stretches 1300 km from the southwest to northeast with a width of about 600 km(Jalalzai, 1999. p. 16). It lies in the heart of Asia and links three major geographical zones. Its significance lies with the location as a crossway between the Indian subcontinent to the southeast, Central Asian steppes to the north and the Iranian plateau in the west(Younossi, 2008). The adjacent countries having direct boundary linkage with her include Pakistan (2,430 km), Iran (936 km), Turkmenistan (744 km), Uzbekistan (137 km), Tajikistan (I, 206 km), and China (76 km)(The World Fact Book – Afghanistan). During the course of history, it was part of the empires ruled by different dynasties of outsiders as well some of its own. It made its presence in the modern world noticeable in the nineteenth century when it was caught up in a big powers rivalry named as “The Great Game”. Afghanistan was a bone of contention between two super powers of that time, British and Czarist Russia. Due to this rivalry, it fought three major wars with the British(Barfeild, 2010. p. 1)
In 1893, Sir Mortimer Durand was dispatched to Kabul by the government of
British India to sign an agreement with Amir AbdulRehman Khan for fixing the limits of their respective spheres of influence as well as improving diplomatic relations and trade.
On November 12, 1893, the Durand Line Agreement was concluded(Smith, 2004).
Pakistan inherited the 1893 agreement and the subsequent 1919 Treaty of Rawalpindi after partition of British India in 1947. In 1919, Amir Amman Ullah Khan declared independence from British who had been controlling the foreign affairs of Afghanistan since 1882. It remained peaceful and impartial during the first and second world wars.
Meanwhile, in 1933, Zahir Shah became the king of Afghanistan(Judah, 2001). There has never been a formal agreement or ratification between Islamabad and Kabul on Pak-
Afghan border demarcation(Hassan, 2004. p. 21).
Due to its geographical location, in the mid twentieth century, Afghanistan was again caught in a big powers rivalry namely of United States of America and Union of
Soviets Socialist Republics. The King of Afghanistan, Zahir Shah was ousted in 1973 by
Sardar Daud who declared the country as Republic. He was against increasing influence
39 of Soviet Union. He was thrown back by pro-Russian alliance People Democratic Public
Alliance (PDPA). This situation deteriorated further when Soviet Union invaded
Afghanistan in 1979. Babrak Karmal was installed as a new President. All the political parties started resistance. These resistance groups’ fighters called Mujahedeen as those religious fighters who fight for the supremacy of Allah Almighty. More than half of the population fled to the neighboring countries mostly to Pakistan and Iran. The 80’s decade was for Afghan’s in United Nations. Many resolutions were presented on Afghan issue in the UN. Finally, Afghans, USA, USSR and Pakistan signed an agreement in Geneva,
Switzerland due to which Soviets agreed to withdrew. They started pulling out their troops from Afghanistan after ten years in 1988. However, the war continued within different factions of Afghans. Soviets left Afghanistan without establishing any proper governance system so do the USA. Now the President was Najib Ullah but the civil war continued. The Mujahedeen kept on fighting for next three years against Kabul regime until the President was thrown out. In April1992, they took over Kabul and liberate it as an Islamic state. Islamic Jihad Council was formed. Burhan-ud-Din Rabbani was elected as President of Afghanistan. Howevr, peace was not restored and fighting among different Mujahideen commanders continued in order to control the area and resources.
Taliban Militia was emerged in 1994 when students of religious schools get united. They started resistance against anarchy and very soon they captured many areas. In 1996,
Kabul was captured and Mullah Omer declared himself as Amir-ul-Momineen (Head of the pious people).
40 The Taliban formed government in the Kabul and implied a hard version of Islam.
They were recognized by veryPakistan, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE) only. They soon captured almost 90% of the area till 1998. After 9/11incident the Bush administration immediately blamed Osama Bin Laden. Taliban government refused to hand over Osama Bin Laden to USA. In 2001, USA led International Security Assistance
Forces (ISAF) attacked Afghanistan and within no time captured the capital city of
Afghanistan, Kabul. Hamid Karzai was nominated interim President. Later on, after elections, he was elected as President. He served for consecutive two terms.
2.3 Geo-strategic profile of India
India is situated in the northern hemisphere in Asian Indo-Pak sub-continent. The
Indian peninsula is separated from mainland Asia by mountain range of Himalayas.
Pakistan, China, Bhutan, Nepal, Myanmar and Bangladesh form its border along with
Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea. Sri Lanka is separated by a narrow channel from India. Its total area is 32, 87,263 sq. km. From north to south it is 3,214 km and from east to west it is 2,933 km(India.Gov.In).
Since time immemorial, politically, Indian sub-continent was divided into various units called states. These states were ruled by locals as well as by foreign invaders mainly from Central Asia and Afghanistan. Rarely, it was under control of a single ruler or united as one unit. India gained independence on 15th August 1947 from British colonial rule. The Indian Constitution Assembly sat from1947 to 1948 and established set of principles and institutions that have governed the country’s political life up to the present.
41 On 26th January, 1951, the new constitution was promulgated in India. According to this constitution, India is a Sovereign Socialist Democratic Republic with a parliamentary system of the government.
The form of government is of Westminster style with the parliament comprising of two houses i.e. Rajia Sabah and Lok Sabah (house of people). The President is installed as titular head of the state. The separate electorates were abolished and joint electorates were followed.
Jawaharlal Nehru became Prime Minister after independence in 1947. Under
Nehru, the ruling, Indian National Congress was committed to the principles of secularism and socialism. The first general elections were held in 1951-52 and swept the
Congress party into power in center as wellas in the states(Maps of India). The leadership of Nehru brought out India as new modern India by imparting social values and thinking.
He, being a social reformer, changed the ancient Hindu civil code and permitted equal rights to widows and women. Jawaharlal Nehru established many new institutions as well as new states.
The moderate Lal Bhadur Shastri (1964-1965) succeeded to the post of Prime
Minister after the death of Jawaharlal Nehru. He was staunch follower of Gandhi; he promoted white revolution that increased the milk production in the country. Over the
Kashmir dispute with Pakistan, war broke out in September1965. A settlement was made between Pakistan and India in Tashkent, USSR with the help of USSR which ended the war. During these meetings, Mr. Shastri died of a sudden heart attack. Mrs.Indira Gandhi,
42 the only daughter of Mr. Nehru took office. Later on, she made her own faction of
Congress, Congress Indra (I), popularly known as Congress I.
Mrs. Indira Gandhi was a strong lady. Her policies of Green Revolution and
Nationalization gave boost to the nation. She helped the rebels in East Pakistan and instigatedMakati Bahni, an anti-Pakistan Guirella organization consist of Bengalis from
East Pakistan against Pakistan but trained and funded by Indian Army. Later on, she sent
Indian Army in East Pakistan to fight directly with Pakistan.Due to her policies of interfering in Pakistan’s internal affairs, Pakistan got dismembered. Despite her achievements, in early electionsin March 1977, she was defeated. The Junta party won and thus ended thirty year rule of Congress(Barbara D. Metcalf, 2006. p. 258).
The new Prime Minister was Mirarji Desai. He was the head of government but within-party feuds did not let the new government to last long. New elections were held in January 1980 and Congress was back in the office. “Operation Blue Star” against Sikh extremists in Amritsar brought bad luck for Mrs.Indira Gandhi. She was killed by her
Sikh bodyguards in 1984. Her son Rajiv Gandhi succeeded her and became Prime
Minister. He called for elections in December 1984 in which his party Congress I got majority. He opened the country for the first time in Indian history for capitalists. He actively helped the rebels of Sri Lanka, Tamils. He was killed in a suicide bomb attack in
Tamil Nadu during campaign in May 1991(Barbara D. Metcalf, 2006. p. 263).The short term governments of Samajvadi Party and Junta Dull subsequently ruled the country from
1989 to1991. Congress party won once again and Mr. Nursimha Rao took the office from
43 1991 to 1996. He is known as the father of India’s economic reforms. In next elections,
Junta Dull won and two ofits Prime Ministers ruled after one another namely Indur
Kumar Gujral and Dev Gouda. However, their rules ended before time. New elections were announced and in 2004 winning party was again Congress. Mr. Manmohan Singh led party rule for two consecutive terms. He reformed the banking sector in India and brought pro-industry policies. InMay 2014, Narendra Modi of Bharatia Junta Party emerged as majority party leader and took office. Therefore, by and large, there are democratically elected ruling parties in India. It is the largest democracy of the world
(population wise).
2.4 Development of Relations between India and Afghanistan
Historically, India and Afghanistan enjoyed close historical and cultural relations since time immemorial. From Alexander the Great to, Ghaznavids to Mughals, all warriors entered into Indian sub-continent from Afghanistan. It served as gateway for the spread of Buddhism and Islam. This route also promoted the arts and culture of Greeks,
Persians and Arabs(Mukhopadhaya, 2010). In the modern times, during the freedom movement against the colonial rule of the British, the most prominent Pushtoon leader
Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan was a hero for Indian National Congress and was called
Sarhadi Gandhi.
44 Indian Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru,while receiving Afghan Prime Minister
Daud, on his visit to New Delhi in 1959, reportedly said regardingAfghanistan;“The partition of India separated direct boundaries and direct contact between the two countries. But that made little difference to our age long community of interests and our old friendship survived. Ever since India’s independence, we have grown closer to each other, for a variety of reasons. The long memory of our past was there, and the moment it was possible to renew them, we renewed them, and then it comesto the mutual interest, which is a powerful factor(Select Documents on India's Foreign Policy and Relations,
1947-1972, 1985. p.5)”.
India has enjoyed cordial relations with Afghanistan since 1947; these were strengthened by the signing of the “Friendship Treaty” on 4th January 1950. According to this treaty, the two countries showed determination to recognize the ancient relations between two countries for centuries. The Consuls-General, Consuls, Vice Consuls and
Consuls agents were decided to be appointed in the cities, towns, ports and other places in each other’s territory. Through this treaty, the diplomatic relations were developed between two countries.
The issue of Pakhtoonistan with Pakistan had brought Afghanistan and India much closer in the early years of India’s inception.Ancient Indian politician,Kautiyla’s philosophy has described it very well by the theory of Raj mandala, that is, enemy’s immediate enemy will be your friend(Sharma, Goria, & Mishra, 2011.p. 198). A famous saying is that enemy of my enemy is my friend. India signed various agreements and protocols with pro-Soviet regimes in Afghanistan which aimed to co-operate and enhance
45 Indian influence in the region. During the cold war, both the super powers of that time invested heavily in Afghanistan. President Khrushchev of the Soviet Union agreed to reorganize the Afghan army and provided economic aid of US$ 2.25 billion up to
1979(Tanner, 2002.p. 226) . The two countries came closer due to the increasing dependence of Afghanistan on Soviets. India, despite being the part of Non-Aligned
Movement, was a close ally of Soviets in the region. During this period, India signed many agreements and friendship treaties with governments of Afghanistan in order to enhance its influence in the region. An “Indo-Afghan Joint Commission” was formed in
1976 to facilitate economic and technical assistance programs. The growing insurgency due to the conflict between communists and non-communists created instability in
Afghanistan that ultimately halted the developmental activities in the country.
As in 1979 when the Soviets invaded Afghanistan, India had a very cordial relation with Soviets as it had signed a friendship treaty with the USSR in 1971(Ghosh &
Panda, 1983. p. 261). Initially, Indians backed the invasion by criticizing Mujahedeen who were trying to disturb the Afghans in their internal matters as Indians had accepted the USSR’s point of view and logic for invasion as that it was on the invitation of
Afghans themselves. However, they shielded their support by propagating that any help to the neighboring Pakistan for fighting would likely disturb the balance of power in the region(Matinuddin, 1991. p. 121). Therefore, it was a pretext for instability in the region.
The Indian Prime Minister, Charan Singh, condemned the invasion(Horn, 1983, p. 245) as India was the founding member of the Non Align movement. When Indira Gandhi came to power, Indian Government took a U-turn. Indians frequently choose to abstainfrom key resolutions demanding Soviets withdrawal from Afghanistan in the UN
46 Security Council and General Assembly(Sharma , 2011. p. 108). It provided another opportunity for India to further strengthen its relations with Afghanistan(Sharma .2011. p.
107). India was the first country to recognize the government in Afghanistan after
Soviet’s invasion(Wolf, 2012.p. 157). During the period, 1979-99, India increased its investments in developmental activities in Afghanistan. It was co-operating with
Afghanistan in industrial, irrigation, and hydro-electric projects. Afghan foreign minister
Dost Muhammad visited India and Indian Prime Minister Mrs. Indira Gandhi expressed her willingness to re-activate the Joint Commission.
The guerilla resistance of Afghan Mujahedeen resulted in the withdrawl of Soviet forces. However, Soviets left their legacy in the form of Najib-Ullah Government. After the disintegration of USSR in 1991, Mujahedeen formed their government in Kabul.
During that period India had somewhat cold relations with Afghanistan. But when pre- dominantly non-Pushtoon government of Burhan ud-din- Rabbani was formed in 1992,
India again became active and started providing technical and humanitarian aid to
Afghans(Ashraf, 2007). Due to the factionalism within the Rabbani Government, civil war broke out which ultimately led to the rise of Taliban. They replaced the government of Rabbani in 1996. Relations between India and Afghanistan deteriorated after the
Taliban came into power(Dutta, 2008.p. 412). India closed her Kabul embassy in
September 1996(Trivedi, 2008. p. 80) as it didn’t recognize the government of Taliban because of its tilt towards Pakistan.
47 Since Taliban were Pushtoon, therefore, non-Pushtoon groups who were in opposition formed an alliance against Pushtoons. This Alliance was called Northern
Alliance(Ashraf, 2007) as it controlled the northern areas of Afghanistan, bordering the
Central Asian States of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. In order to exert its presence and to curb the influence of Pakistan on Taliban, who were enjoying friendly relations with
Pakistan Government, India developed links with Northern Alliance. To win their favor,
India strengthened the defense of the Northern Alliance by providing high-altitude warfare equipment worth $ 10 million through its Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) and Indian defense advisers provided technical advice to the Northern Alliance(Swami,
2001.p. 23). India established a hospital in Farkhor on the Afghan–Tajik border and
Indian doctors provided medical assistance to the Alliance(Bedi, 2001).India also operated against the Taliban from bases inside Tajikistan and Uzbekistan(Bedi,
2001).When discussing relations between India and Afghanistan during the Taliban period, Mr. M. H. Ansari, India’s former Ambassador to Afghanistan, mentioned, “A relationship with the Taliban was not attempted … as a result of the treatment meted out to the Afghan Hindus and Sikhs. Much more serious in Indian eyes were the Taliban pronouncements on Kashmir, the training of Kashmiris, Pakistanis, and foreign militants in camps in Afghanistan … these touched the core of India’s vital interests and compelled
New Delhi to strengthen its support and assistance to the predominantly non-Pashtun
Rabbani forces”.(Ansari, 2004. p.183)
Therefore, throughout the Taliban rule in Afghanistan (1996-2001), Indians channeled their efforts towards marginalizing the influence of the Taliban and supporting
48 pro-Indian groups. India also benefited from the anti-Taliban approach of neighboring
Russia and Iran. It developed friendly relations with Northern Alliance in order to have benefit from the resource rich Central Asian States. One of its foreign ministerMr. J. N.
Dixit also mentioned inhis book that: “India, in co-operation with all like-minded countries, should resist the coercive propagation of any kind of religious, social, or ethnic extremism which can profoundly de-stabilizeAfghanistan’s Asian neighbors … An early solution to theAfghanistan crisis is critical for realizing the enormous opportunities for energy and economic co-operation in the Eurasian region”(Dixit, 2002. p.79).
Indo-Afghan relations met another setback after the hijacking of an Indian plane on 24th of December, 1999(Fair, 2011). The hijackers were claimed to be the members of
Harkate Jihad -ul-Islami. They kidnapped the plane from Kathmandu and landed it into
Qandahar, Afghanistan. Taliban didn’t let Indians to use force therefore after prolonged dialogues between hijackers and Indian government released three terrorists from Indian jails in return of 155 passengers of hijacked plane. The episode of 9/11 changed the outlook of America as well as the face of entire Muslim world. The details mentioned according to the 9/11 commission report are as follows;
On 11 September, 2001, nineteen hijackers of Arab origin kidnapped four US passengers’ aero planes from different airports of USA within a short span of time, almost within an hour. The hijacked American Airline Flight 11 flew into the upper portion of the World Trade Center’s (WTC) North Tower, New York cutting through flour 93 to 99. The other United Airline’s flight 175 bumped into South Tower of WTC. Both the buildings collapsed within next hour. The third hijacked aero plane, American Airline Flight 77 struck into the southern wall of Pentagon, headquarter of American Defense Ministry. The fourth hijacked plane United Airline Flight 93 crashed near Bhanksville, Pennsylvania. It was heading for Washington DC. About 3000 persons died and numerous got injured. (Final report. 2004)
49 Soon after the incident, USA, declared Al-Qaida and Osama Bin Laden responsible for those deadly attacks on America. According to the US government official report on 9/11, these attacks were carried out by various groups of Islamist
Extremists who earlier defeated USSR in Afghanistan in late 80’s. Bin Laden and others formed Al-Qaida to mobilize Jihad elsewhere in the world. After the attacks of 9/11, the government of USA demanded the handing over of Osama Bin Laden to the USA government but this request was turned down by the Taliban Government(Amin, 2011. p.315). After a month, the US and Allied forces launched a military invasion of
Afghanistan and removed Taliban from the government.
Conclusion
Though, Afghanistan is not a direct neighbor of India but situated in the extended neighborhood of India. It is situated at the cross roads of civilization. Afghanistan was main battle ground for Czarist Russia and then British Empire. In late 19th century,
Afghanistan became independent and Aman Ullah Khan became its king. The Durrani clan kingship ended in 1973 when Prime Minister Daud topples down the king Zahir
Shah’s Government and became President. In 1979, the USSR invaded Afghanistan and left in 1989 after Geneva Accord. Pakistan and USA helped Afghan fighters but America left Afghanistan and civil war broke out. Then was the turn of Taliban. In 2001 American and ISAAF forces enter into Afghanistan in search of Osama bin Laden and are still there.
50 India got independence in 1947 from British Empire. It is the biggest democracy
of the world. For most of the time Indian National Congress was the ruler in India. India
had signed a friendship treaty with Afghanistan in 1952.This treaty shaped the future
relations of two countries. Being a rival to Pakistan, India befriended Afghanistan. After
Russian withdrawal, India formed long term relationship with Northern Alliance.
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Amin, S. M. (2011). Pakistan's Foreign Policy: A Reappraisal. Karachi: Oxford University Press.
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Ashraf, F. (2007). India Afghan Relations: Post 9/11. Retrieved from Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad: http://issi.org.pk/ss_Detail.php/?datald_432
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51 Final Report of the National Comission on Terrorist Attacks upon the United States. www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg.GPO-9/11 REPORT/pdf. Fair, C. (2011). Under the Shrinking US Security Umbrella: India's End Game in Afghanistan. The Washington Quarterly Journal .
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53 Chapter-Three
3.1 Development of Indo-Afghan Relations in Post 9 /11 scenario; Political/ Social/ Economic/ Military and Security
After the incident of 9/11, the forces of United States of America and the forces of
United Kingdom along with forces of United Front launched air strikes against the
Taliban. Taliban resistance did not last longer and their once stronghold Mazar-e Sharif
fell to the United forces. Later on, Afghan resistance groups gathered in Bonn, Germany
and formed an interim government on December 5, 2001. Hamid Karzai was chosen as
chairman. The traditional Afghan, informal consultative body of elders called Loya Jirga,
elected Hamid Karzai as President of Afghanistan’s interim government till 2004.
Professor Burhan-ud-din Rabbani handed over the power to the new interim government
of Hamid Karzai on 22nd December 2001, soon after the fall of Taliban. The new cabinet was predominantly non-Pashtun and pro-Northern Alliance. India had developed close and cordial relations with Northern Alliance during the rule of Taliban. Therefore, the change in the power scenario in Kabul was pleasant for them. At that occasion, the foreign minister of India, Mr. Jaswant Singh visited Kabul and Indian Embassy was re- opened in Kabul(Trivedi, 2008.p. 86). Moreover, India also reopened its consulates in
Kandahar and Jalalabad and established two new consulates in Mazar-e-Sharif and Heart
(Pant, 2012. p. 36). India offered its support to the newly established interim government(Lasiram, 2011.p. 776). Earlier, during his exile, Hamid Karzai stayed in India for a long period from
1976 to 1983. He had been a part of students exchange program from Afghanistan to
India. During his stay, he received his degree of Masters in Political Science from
Himachel Pradesh University. He had strong affiliation with Indians as he was tilted towards them since very beginning. Therefore, soon after he sworn in for the office of
President, he visited India from 26th to 27th February 2002(Mahindra, 2005. p.242).
In January 2004, a new constitution was adopted by Afghanistan, as a republic with three branches of government i. e Executive, Legislative, and Judiciary. Presidential elections were held in October/ November 2004 and Hamid Karzai was elected as
President. He had sworn in December 2004. In 2009, he was re-elected as President for the second term. However, according to the new constitution, he was not eligible for the third term. Third Afghan Presidential elections were held in 2014. Ashraf Ghani and Dr.
Abdullah were the two strong candidates who, after elections blamed each other for massive rigging. Therefore, votes were recounted. Ultimately, a power sharing formula was devised to satisfy both the major candidates. Ashraf Ghani was designated as a
President while Dr. Abdullah was declared the Chief Executive.
Soon after 9/11 incident, Indians assumed a quiet different role in Afghanistan.
They focused more on development projects and humanitarian assistance.Indian Prime
Minister A.B. Vajpayee announced a $100 million line of credit to Afghanistan and a pledge of one million tons of wheat for displaced Afghans. A team of doctors and technicians was sent to Afghanistan with a task to establish a camp for fixing artificial limbs for amputees. India has invested heavily in strategic infrastructural projects in
55 Afghanistan. Construction of strategically important road of Zaranj-Delaram which connects Afghanistan to the Iranian sea port of Chahbahar is the major project. Other projects are construction of Salma Dam, building a transmission line to provide power to
Kabul and a hydroelectric project in Herat.
A lot has been invested or is still in the process or is pledged by both the
Governments so far. The unusual friendly ties resulted in almost fourteen visits of Afghan
President to Kabul in his tenure as President of Afghanistan(Chand, 2013). On the other hand, at many occasions, delegates of different level from India also visited Afghanistan.
Even Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh visited Afghanistan twice during his tenure. These visits were not just sightseeing tours but had clear political significance.
Therefore, it is clear that Indian interests in Afghanistan are driven by its domestic, regional and international interests. These can be divided into major categories of political, social, economic, military and security interests. It is appropriate to discuss the
Indian efforts so far in Afghanistan in detail under these categories;
3.2 Assistance in Development of Political Consciousness
Before discussing the political consciousness of Afghans, it is appropriate to view political history of modern Afghan society. It is traditionally a tribal society. Head of the tribe or the tribal elders have final say in all local/ mutual disputes. Afghanistan never had a central government capable of controlling entire country until Ahmad Shah Abdali who unified it in 1747. Since then, the monarchy of the family of Durranis Pushtoon was established. During the Great Game in 19th century, Britain gradually entered into
56 agreements with Russia and took over certain parts of Afghanistan. During the three
Anglo Afghan wars, the British were controlling the foreign affairs of Afghanistan while apparently it was being ruled by kings of Durranis-Pushtoon origin. It lasted till early 20th century when the Afghan leaders were granted independence on foreign affairs by
British.
In early 20th century, King Amman Ullah brought some fundamental changes in the existing system of rule. He introduced democratic institutions along with monarchy.
His reforms were labeled as secular reforms and he was over thrown. After a somewhat disturbing period, King Zahir Shah ascended to the throne in 1933. He ruled the country for a longer period of time. During his long rule, King Zahir Shahtriedout a new form of government in Afghanistan. In 1964, he introduced a partly elected legislature. He gradually delegated powers to his Prime Ministers. However, in 1973, king Zahir Shah was overthrown by his cousin and former Prime Minister, Daud. Being a Marxist, he tried to implement the Marxist style of social and economic reforms in the country. His policies were rejected because masses were not in his favor. After a period of political turmoil, assassination of certain leaders and political unrest led Soviet Union to send its troops on the eve of Christmas in Afghan land in 1979. Babrak Karmal was placed as
President. He was later replaced by Dr. Najib Ullah. After the Geneva Accord in 1988,
Soviets started withdrawing their forces.
It is concluded after the study of onward 1988 Afghan historythat there was no central government in Afghanistan which would have been acceptable for all segments of
57 society. Whether there was nine parties’ alliance government or Taliban or Hamid Karzai or Ashraf Ghani, whatsoever, certain factions stood against it and started armed resistance.
After 9/11, an InternationalConference on Afghanistan was held in the Bon,Germany in
2001, with the help of United Nation Organizationto decides on a plan for governing the country of Afghanistan. In 2004, a Loya Jirga was convened in Kabul which approved
Presidential system with bi-cameral legislature for Afghanistan. In fact, the tradition of
Loya Jirga in Afghanistan is as old as civilization of Afghanistan. Loya Jirga has become a regular feature for deciding the matters of Afghanistan. There are two types of Loya
Jirga; one that is called by the people themselves at the time of war or national crisis due to the threat to the country from enemy. Secondly, it is when the circumstances compel the ruler to consult the people with regard to urgent and important matters(The Loya
Jirga. 2000).
The modern parliamentary, presidential form of governmentwith bi-cameral legislature was given the traditional color. The upper house, Meshrano Jirga (house of elders) consists of 102 selective members from all 34 provinces. The lower house,
Wolesai Jirga (house of representative) is the house of 249 directly elected members. So far, three Presidential elections have been held in Afghanistan since 9/11 i.e. in October
2004, 2009 and 2014(Afghanistan Online. 2015).
58 India has taken certain steps in order to seek political influence in Afghanistan.
These steps included;
a) Indians Supporting Karzai Government;
Soon after ISAAF forces takeover of Kabul, the Bon conference selected Hamid Karzai as interim Afghan President. Hamid Karzai was tilted towards India since very beginning as mentioned earlier. He was able to convince India about his loyalty to get financial assistance and signed bi-lateral agreements in various fields(Mahindra, 2005. p. 242) during his regimes.It is quite rare to see a head of state visit a foreign country even twice a year but former Afghan President Hamid Karzai visited India fourteen times during his tenure from 2002 to 2014(Hamid Karzai’s visit. 2015) which is quite unusual. Mr. Karzai always issued controversial statements against Pakistan and favored India. Although a distant neighbor, India invested in Afghanistan to build democratic institutions with multi ethnic background in order to reduce the influence of Pukhtoons and Pakistan(Pattanaik,
2011. p. 28).
a) Diplomatic Presence;
Throughout the Soviet occupation period in Afghanistan, India maintained cordial and friendly relations with Afghanistan. India was a close ally of Soviet Union. Soviet Union was interested to expand communism beyond its boundaries so it was investing heavily in
Afghanistan. The government in Afghanistan signed friendship treaty with Afghanistan.
That’s why, when Taliban took over, relations between India and Afghanistan deteriorated(Dutta, 2008. p. 412). India then closed her Kabul embassy in September
1996(Trivedi, 2008.p.80) as it didn’t recognize the government of Taliban because of its
59 tilt towards Pakistan. After the fall of Taliban, India immediately reopened its embassy in
Kabul(Peter, Larry. 2012) Moreover, Indian consulates were opened in Kandahar,
Jalalabad, Herat and Mazar-e-Sharif (Peter, Larry. 2012). These consulates helped
Indians to develop friendly relations with local leaders. It developed trade and investment at grass root levels in the major commercial centers in western and southern parts of the country.
b) Investment on Northern Alliance;
In 1992, the Northern Alliance (NA) was established in opposition of the communist government led by President Najib Ullah. Initially the group consisted of General Abdul
Rashid Dostum, former head of Najib Ullah’s militia forces; Ahmad Shah Mas'ud, head of the Jamiat-e-Islami Party; and Hizb-e-Wahdat, a pro-Shi'a party(Afghanistan background… 1999). Later on, other small parties joined/ left the alliance. The NA was instrumental in bringing down Najib Ullah’s government in April 1992(Afghanistan background… 1999), but disintegrated shortly after its victory due to power struggle within the group. However, when the Taliban captured Kabul in September 1996, the three groups revived the NA, in opposition once again(Northern Alliance, 1999). When the Pashtun-dominated faction Taliban, gained more power and seized control of more territory, the NA formed the shape of opposition which resisted Taliban's use of indiscriminate violence and repression(Country Profile: Afghanistan, 1999). On August
8, 1998, the Taliban militia stormed into Mazar-i-Sharif, the last city NA held, and took control of government buildings, the central mosque, and major road junctions (Sakkar,
2009).During this whole period of struggle, India was the major supporter of NA which
60 was a combination of ethnic Tajiks and Uzbeks, because of its hostility to Pakistani supported mujahedeen(Ganguly, Howenstein, 2009.p. 127). India provided the NA full support with weapons, materials, maintenance facilities, defense advisers and a field hospital in Tajikistan for fighters(Fair, 2011.p. 184).
When Professor Burhan-ud-Din Rabbani was killed in September 2011, it was condemned by India, through a statement that,
"Tragically, the forces of terror and hatred have silenced yet
another powerful voice of reason and peace in Afghanistan. We
unreservedly condemn this act of great brutality," and assured the support
of the people and government of India in Afghanistan's "quest for peace
and efforts to strengthen the roots of democracy (Outlook India, 2014)"
India promised to stand by the people of Afghanistan in preparing to assume the responsibility for their governance and security after the withdrawal of international forces in 2014(Mohan. 2011).
c) Supporting Minus Taliban Reconciliation Plans;
Taliban are always assumed as Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence Agency (ISI) brain child. Therefore¸ India was unwilling to support them. Moreover, India fears that any re- conciliation plan for inclusion of Taliban in Afghan government would ultimately provide safe haven against India and its interests within Afghanistan(Hanauer & Chalk,
2012.p. 15). Analyzing, this policy of India, a think tank wrote, “India’s security interests primarily revolves around denying any political space to the ISI backed Taliban and other such fundamentalist groups”(Sharma, 2009, p. 2). India is not successful so far in
61 blocking Taliban from playing a role in Kabul that’s why they are changing their thinking by contacting other groups for influence in future chemistry of government. The multinationals talks which were held in 201l and other such initiatives at international level had compelled India to revise its policies.
d) Construction of Afghan Parliament Building in Kabul;
As a reformed style of government had been adopted in the country after 9/11, a permanent building was required to hold the sessions of Parliament of Afghanistan. India took initiative for construction of Afghan parliament building on the 84 acre plot, in the outskirt of Kabul in 2009 (Outlook India, 2014). The building has modern and Mughal influence on its architecture. It has four main blocks for House of People, Offices,
Entrance Hall and Senate Hall. The initial plan was of 36 months but due to the challenging working conditions, it had been delayed. Now the building has been completed and handed over to Afghan authorities at the end of 2015. The estimated cost in Indian Rupees is 710 Crore (Outlook India, 2014). Almost 30% workers were Indians.
All the construction material and furniture was imported from India. An Indian official said that building would be a gift to the people of Afghanistan aspiring to move towards a peaceful democracy (Outlook India, 2014).
e) Extensive Mutual Visits of Parliamentarians;
Despite of very frequent visits by President Hamid Karzai (about fourteen during his tenure), delegates of different levels frequently visited Afghanistan and India respectively. The regular features of these visits were meetings, signing of Memorandum
62 of Understanding’s and sightseeing tours. There has been significant political engagement between India and Afghanistan, with a large number of high-level bilateral visits between the two countries in the last two years. In 2011, the Prime Minister, minister of external affairs, foreign minister, national security advisor, minister for steel and minster of law and justice, amongst others, all visited Afghanistan(Price, 2013).
f) Membership of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC)
South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation” (SAARC), one of the major regional associations, came into being in 1986 on the suggestion of Bangladesh’s President, Zia- ur-Rehman. Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Nepal and Maldives are its founding members. Major Powers like USA and China have observer status in the
SAARC. In 2005, India activated for the membership of Afghanistan in SAARC. In
2007, Afghanistan finally became the eighth member of SAARC.After the inclusion of
Afghanistan as the latest member of the SAARC at the 14th SAARC Summit in New
Delhi in 2007, SAARC’s western boundaries are expanded up to Iran and Central Asia.
Not only has this, but Afghanistan once again became the cross-roads between Central and South Asia, as it links the regional countries together in a trade, transportation and energy hub. This extended region has the world’s largest and most rapidly expanding markets. Indian perception of Afghanistan role in SAARC is that “together, India and
Afghanistan intend to work with neighbors to dismantle trade and transit barriers for free movement of goods, investments, and peoples and unfettered and constructive regional relationships”(India and Afghanistan; a Development Partnership. 2015).
63 3.3 Development Aid and Economic Influence
So far following economic development activities are funded/ initiated by Indians for Afghans;
a) Delaram/ Zaranj Highway
Afghanistan is a land locked country and using Arabian Sea route for sea trade since long. After the inception of Pakistan, both the governments made an aggrement of Transit trade. Through this agreement, Afghanistan was facilitated by allowing the use of
Karachi sea port for the import of different goods from all over the world. Although, smuggling, illegal purchases and re-selling of these duty free items in Pakistani markets literally damaged the local economy, but the government of Pakistan had not withdrawn that facility.
Through this route link, Afghan economy became more dependants on Pakistan’s investers and businessmen. Pakistan, on the other hand, didn’t let India to export its goods via land route of Pakistan to Afghanistan. In this way, not only Afghanistan but the huge market of Centeral Asian States is not approachable for Indian goods. Therefore
India, with the help of the government of Iran planned to develop Iranian sea port of
Chahbahar and link it with Afghanistan by road. The contract for the building of 218 km highway was awarded to Indian Army’s Border Road Organization(BRO), a road construction body linked to Indian Army (Facts about India. 2015). It builta road in the remote Afghan province of Nimroz in 2009 which connected Zaranj (which is a border town with Iran) and Delaram, situated on Garland highway. It linked the major cities of
64 Kabul, Kandahar, Herat, Mazar-e Sharif and Kundoz. The road linked Afghanistan to
Iranian sea port of Chahbahar.Therefore, it provided the linkage of major Afghan cities with Iranian sea port.
Despite the attacks of Taliban, the road was built although many Afghans and Indians died during its construction. After the completion of the highway, the then external affairs minister of India, Parnab Mukherjee and Afghan President Hamid Karzai inaugurated the road on 22nd of January 2009(Debata, 2012. p.804). During his visit to
Afghanistan, in a joint statement, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said that the successful completion of this highway was a “major test of our joint resolve”(Basar,
2012. p. 2). Moreover, he said that, “the road has brought our two people close together”(Basar, 2012. p.3).
Therefore, an alternative route for the duty free transportation of goods through sea route was made available for Afghanistan to reduce its economic dependence on Pakistan’s.
India’s benefit is greater as it will use that route for trade with Afghanistan as well as
Central Asian States through the sea. For this purpose, earlier, India repeatedly requested for trade and transit facilities from Pakistan. India entirely built this road from its own resources. By building this road, India achieved many goals. On the one hand, it painted soft image of India as helpful and friendly nation, not only for Afghans but for international community as well. The massage it conveyed to its distant neighbor
Afghanistan was that being well-wisher Indians were spending for their development and are their well-wisher. On the other hand, it planned to promote its exports in the region.
The Central Asian’s markets will be in its access through Iranian sea port via Mumbai sea port. Since long, India wants access to the Central Asian Republics through inland routes
65 via Pakistan and Afghanistan. The Indian government has invested more than US$100 million in the expansion of the Chahbahar port, situated in free trade zone of Makran coast in south-eastern Iran which would serve as a hub for the transportation of transit goods(9/11 Strategic Analysis. 2007).
b) Salma Dam
As a part of its financial assistance programme for reconstruction and development in
Afghanistan, the Indian government invested $300 million in the Salma Dam project, which was initiated in 2006.Salma Dam was originally constructed in 1976 on the
Harirod river basin in the province of Herat but was damaged early during the Civil war in Afghanistan. The reconstruction of the dam was first initiated by an Indian company, the ‘Water and Power Consultancy Services’ (India) Ltd (WAPCOS Ltd.) in 1988, but the project was left incomplete for a significant period of time due to the ongoing instability caused by thecivil war(Ashraf, 2007). In 2006, India committed to funding till the completion of the Salma Dam. It is a $ 300 million hydroelectric and irrigation project being constructed on Hari Rud River in Chiste Sharif district of the province
Herat with objectives of 42 MW power generations and improvement of irrigation facilities in 80,000 hectares of land (Pajhwok, 2015). Salma Dam Project is a glacier and run off the river scheme in West Afghanistan in Western Himalayas, a 107m high earth and rock fill dam located 176 km upstream of Province of Herat on river
Harirud(NBMCW, 2011). The Project consists of following major structures.
1. Rocks fill Dam.
2. Surface Power House.
66 3. Chute and Shaft Spillways
Once the dam is operational, it is expected to provide 75,000 acres of land in
Heart with irrigation and is likely to produce 45 MW of electricity(News, 2013) .
c) Infrastructure and Technical Assistance;
Indians have so far provided 40 buses and 200 minibuses to Afghans for mass transport system(Ministry of External Affairs I. 2015. p. 28 ). About 105 utility vehicles are also gifted to municipalities which include garbage dumpers and water tankers. The Afghan
National Army was facilitated by providing 300 military transport vehicles. Afghan
International Airline Ariana was provided three Airbus air crafts along with spare parts and technical training facilities.(Ministry of External Affairs I. 2015. p. 29 )
d) Small Development Projects;
Apart from building roads and dams, India has declared initiating of Small Development
Projects (SDP) during the visit of Indian Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh in August
28, 2005. The Indian Prime Minister announced that India would adopt 100 villages in
Afghanistan in order to promote integrated rural development by introducing solar electrification and rain water harvesting technologies(Ministry of External Affairs G. o.,
2005). Almost 84 small projects in 19 Afghan provinces are in process and are at different stages of completion(Debata, 2012. p. 804).
e) Hajigak iron ore deposits and mining;
67 India has also taken an active role in developing Afghanistan’s mining sector, viewed by many politicians as the key to Afghanistan’s economic survival. A consortium of Indian state-owned and private companies won rights to begin excavations the Hajigak iron-ore mines in Bamiyan, northwest of Kabul. Indian firms also bid on mining rights on Afghan copper and gold mines(Peter, 2012). So far, China is the only other nation that has won mining contracts in Afghanistan.
India is playing a key role in developing mining sector in Afghanistan. During a visit to
India in February 2005, the Afghan mines Minister Mir Muhammad Sadiq, requested for technical assistance from India in exploring minerals. He further added that Afghanistan is rich in minerals and around 300 minerals required exploration throughout Afghanistan which included coal, copper, gold and zinc(Ashraf, 2007). So far, the highest single successful activity of India in Afghanistan is the acceptance of a tender by a consortium of seven Indian public and private sector companies to develop the Hajigak iron ore mines. The planned investment is 66 billion. The consortium is led by Indian State owned company State Authority of India Limited (SAIL) .
It is estimated that it holds almost two billion tons of iron ore deposits. The consortium has been committed in the agreement with Afghan Government that it build the mines, a six million ton steel unit and an 800 MW power station near the mining site. Two routes are specified for transferring finished steel and iron Ore to India; one from Iran and other from Pakistan( Ashraf, 2007). Pakistan’s route by road is much cheaper but Pakistan has some reservations regarding the benefits that could likely to go to India. On the other hand, adopting Iranian route might not be liked by USA & allies. India has already built a seaport of Chahbahar in Iran. This port of Iran is connected to Afghanistan through
68 Zaranj –Delaram highway, another project completed by Indians. The plan is to build a rail track along with Zaranj- Delaram Highway. However, the work is going on at a slow pace due to security situation in Afghanistan. Even Afghan government has threatened the consortium for cancellation of license if it fails to start mining within six months(Price, 2013).
f) Hydropower Projects:
Water represents the very essence of life. Many developing countries are already struggling to cope with chronic water shortages.Throughout history, water has also been a source of dispute and even conflictbetween uses and between users at both local and larger scales. As waterbecomes ever more scarce relative to demand, there are emerging fears oftransboundary waters becoming a source of conflict. Same is the case in Indi and
Pakistan. All the rivers flow from north to south in Pakistan. Most of these originated in
Indian territory.India has frequently used water as an instrument to destroy Pakistan’s economy. It has already built hydropower projects and reservoirs on those rivers on which it has relinquished its control as per the Indus Basin Water Treaty of 1962.
According to this treaty, Pakistan relinquish its right of usage of three rivers namely
Ravi, Sutlej and Bias to India while Pakista is using the water of Jehlum, Indus and
Chenab. India is violating this treaty by building reservoirs on river Indus, Jhelum and
Chenab.
Likewise from Afghanistan, river Kabul flows towards Pakistan. Valleys of Peshawar and Nowshera are fertile due to its water. But India has planned to assist the construction of almost 12 hydropower projects on river Kabul. This step will have some serious
69 implications for Pakistan’s agrarian base economy. Afghan government is allowing India to do so.
g) Investment Summits;
The Confederation of Indian Industries organized Delhi Investment Summit on
Afghanistan on 28 June, 2012. The main objective of the summit was to attract investments in the diverse fields of agriculture, industry, capacity building, health services, mining and hydro carbon development(MEA, 2012).
h) Regional Economic Cooperation Conference on Afghanistan
(RECCA);
Regional Economic Cooperation Conference on Afghanistan (RECCA) is an important conference in terms of cooperation with Afghanistan by neighbors. There have been five such conferences held so far; first in Kabul in 2005, second in New Delhi in
2006, third in Islamabad in 2009, fourth in Istanbul in 2010 and fifth one in Dushanbe,
Tajikistan(Sherzai, 2012). The first Regional Economic Co-operation Conference on
Afghanistan (RECCA I), was attended by eleven regional countries. It was a building block for an Afghan-led regional cooperation process.In this first conference, it was decided that all regional capitals would hold that sort of conferences one by one.
Therefore, the second conference, RECCA II was hosted by New Delhi in November
2006(Sherzai, 2012). In this conference overland trade and transit issues between countries and regions were also discussed.
70 i) Electricity lines from Pul-e- Khumri to Kabul;
The electric supply system in Afghanistan was badly damaged during three decades of
Afghan war. Even in the capital city, Kabul, the four million residents were getting only three hours of power supply every alternative day. Therefore, in order to meet the requirement, an electric supply agreement was signed between Afghanistan and
Uzbekistan. A 462 km line was proposed to be constructed from the Uzbek border to
Kabul. The total estimated cost in the project was US$ 250 million(Asian Development
Bank, 2015). This 150 megawatt project was partially funded by Asian Development
Bank(Basar, 2012). The last 202 km of power line from Pul-e- Khumri to Kabul along with a substation were constructed by the India’s Power Grid Corporation. The contract between the ministry of external affairs and government of India were signed on12
August, 2005(Times, 2010). Along with the construction of power supply line, a substation, a colony for employees and training of Afghan electricity department personals were parts of the deal(Basar, 2012. p.3).
j) Private Parties investment;
In addition to the state owned corporations and companies, many private sector entrepreneurs are entering in the Afghan markets. Their areas of focus include agriculture, manufacturing, telecommunications and mining sector(Hanauer & Chalk,
2012.p.17 ). They are investing or ready to invest huge sum of money asnoted from the interest shown by not less than 14 Indian companies participation in a bid for mining in an iron ore project in Bamiyan province by costing almost $6 billion(Khan, 2011). At the government level, many times, high level officials of Afghan government invited Indian
71 investment as for instance President Hamid Karzai and Afghan Minister for Commerce
Anwar-ul-Haq Ahadi, during SAARC summit 2011 held in Maldives, requested Indian government for more investment in their country
k) The Preferential Trade Agreement;
The Preferential Trade Agreement between India and Afghanistan was signed on 6th
March 2003(Asian Development Bank, 2015). According to the said agreement, both countries desired to promote mutually beneficial trade as they were convinced that there was the need to establish and promote free trade. The objectives of this agreement were to promote bi-lateral relations, to provide fair conditions of competition for trade and to remove barriers to trade. The list of items where preferential tariff was granted by the government of Afghanistan included black tea, homeopathic medicine, other medicines, sugar refined and cement. The Most Favored Nation(MFN) duty was negligible or exempted. The list for Indian Government was a long list of thirty items. It includes many kinds of fresh /dry fruits, seeds, medicinal value plants for pharmacy and precious gem stones (worked/unworked) like ruby, emerald and lapis. The duty was around 30% while preference given was 50%(Asian Development Bank, 2015).
l) Delhi Investment Summit;
The Confederation of Indian Industries organized Delhi investment summit on
Afghanistan on 28th June, 2012. The main objective of the summit was to attract
72 investments in the diverse fields of agriculture, industry, capacity building, health services, mining and hydrocarbon developments(Times of India. 2012).
m) Help center at Pul-e-Churki;
India has set up a common facility center and tool room at Pul-e-Churki in Afghanistan.
The main purpose is to speed up the ongoing restoration of Industrial parks and promotion of industrial based activities. The director of Pul-e-Churki industrial park, Mr.
Moktasil said that they are very grateful to India for its help because without their help, this park could not have been completed(Ministry of External Affairs I. 2015 ).
n) Future plans
After thorough study of level and volume of Indian investment it is clear that India is interested to increase its investment and to show its presence in the country after 2014
NATO forces with drawl. It seems that India is particularly interested in extending transport networks to Central Asian States through Afghanistan. It’s expected projects in
Afghanistan include setting up Iron ore mines along with a 6 MTPA steel plant by SAIL
(Steel Authority of India Limited) and 800 MW power plants.
India is planning to build a rail link from Hajigak, a mineral rich area in Bamiyan province of Afghanistan, to Iranian sea port of Chahbahar through Zaranj (Jacob &
Chatterji, 2011)(a road has been already constructed on this route by India). India is also negotiating with Iran on a proposed 600 km. long road which will follow rail link from
Iranian sea port of Chahbahar to Iranian city of Zahidan, adjacent to the south western border of Afghanistan(Malhotra, 2012).
73 3.4 Military and Security Partnership
1. Strategic Agreement;
When Afghanistan signed its first strategic pact with India(Global bearings, 2011) relations between Afghanistan and India received a major boost.The two countries signed their first-ever agreement on strategic ties on October 6th, 2011(Lamont, 2011). The agreement included defense co-operation, fighting terrorism measures and training of
Afghan National Security Forces. It was decided that India would provide lethal and non- lethal weapons(Debata, 2012. p. 802). The military assistance would include training of
Afghan security personnel. The Prime Minister of India Dr. Manmohan Singh hailing the
Agreement stated,
“India will stand by the people of Afghanistan, as they prepare to assume
the responsibility for their governance and security after the withdrawal
of international forces in 2014”(Parashar, 2011. p.1).
During one of his visit to India, Karzai told the media that "this strategic partnership is not directed against any country. This strategic partnership is to support Afghanistan." He also stated that "Pakistan is our twin brother, India is a great friend. The agreement we signed with our friend will not affect our brother." He also added that "however, our engagement with Islamabad has unfortunately not yet yielded the result that we want"(Dhar, 2011). Both sides launched Partnership Council, a body to implement the
Strategic Partnership Pact in May, 2012(Center M. , 2012).
b. Training of Afghan Security Forces;
74 The Strategic Partnership Agreement signed in 2011, offered co-operation to Afghanistan in milltaryand security fields. It provided a comprehensive framework in the field of national security, fighting against terrorism and drug trafficking. As it had been established fact that Afghanistan National Security Forces (ANSF) would not able to handle the challenges of extremism and insurgency in post-2014 Afghanistan(Pant,
2011), so India offered to training to ANSF(Pant, 2011).
c. Deployment of Border Security Forces;
After the killing of an Indian national by Taliban, Indians deployed 200 soldiers of the
Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) in order to secure its man power and projects inside
Afghanistan (India year book, 2008).
d. Indian Air Base; Farkhor, Tajikistan
India has established an Air base only two kilometers away from Afghanistan, in
Farkhor, Tajikistan(Menezes, 2008). Earlier, India developed a field hospital at a deserted base of former Soviet Union, in early nineties, close to the Afghan border. It was used for the treatment of NA wounded soldiers during their fight with Taliban. Even a prominent leader of NA, Ahmad Shah Masood was taken there for treatment, after a suicidal attack on him in November 2003(Menezes, 2008). That place was also used for the repairing of
MI helicopters of NA by the technicians of Indian Aviation Research Center(Menezes,
2008). Indian Border Road Organization completed the renovation process of the base in
March, 2007(Dutta, 2008.p.417). This base gave strategic depth to the Indian forces against its major foes i.e. China and Pakistan.
75 3.5 Co-operation in Social Sector
Not only in political and economic sectors but in social sector also, India is enhancing its presence in Afghanistan.India has planned to increase its capacity building for the Afghan government by broadening its engagement in education and health sectors in Afghanistan.
Co-operation in Health Sector
According to the Indians, the main aspect of India’s reconstruction efforts in
Afghanistan includes the humanitarian assistance(Fair, 2011. p.179)as India has played a significant role in developing the health sector in Afghanistan. In health sector, Indians are helping Afghans in many ways. They are as follows;
a. Sending Teams of Health Professionals into Afghanistan;
India sent a team of thirteen doctors and Para -medics in order to provide basic
health facility & first aid to the war torn nation of Afghanistan. Moreover, these
doctors opened camps for fixing artificial limbs of those wounded in war in
different parts of the country (Fair, 2011. p. 187)
b. IMMS;
In order to provide consultation and free medicines to the needy ones, five Indian
Medical Missions (IMMS) are permanently working in Herat, Kabul, Kandahar,
76 Mazar-e-Sharif and Jalalabad (Ministry of External Affairs I. 2015 ). Almost
30,000 Afghans are treated through these IMMS every month (Lashiram,2011.
p.777)
c. Up-gradation of Hospitals:
Many hospitals in Afghanistan are upgraded. The largest pediatric hospital
Indira Gandhi Institute for Children Health (IGICH) Kabul was also upgraded
with the help of Indian government. It was founded in 1966 with Indian
Government’s assistance and named after then Indian Prime Minister Indra
Gandhi. Now, the World Bank funds routine maintenance and provide
medicines(Mukhtar, 2015). Group of doctors from IGICH was inducted to the All
Indian Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) for further training.
d. Construction of Basic Health Units;
Basic Health Unit/clinics were constructed in the border provinces of
Badakshan, Nuristan, Paktia, Paktika, Badakshan, Balkh, Khost, Kunhar, Nimroz,
Nangarhar and Kandahar(MEA, 2015). India also gifted ten ambulances to the
regional hospitals in 2008. They are functioning in Kabul and regional hospitals
of Jalalabad, Kandahar, Herat and Mazar-e-Sharif(MEA, 2015).
3.7 Help in Education Sector
a) Scholarship for Education;
77 India is helping Afghanistan in their educational development by providing them
scholarships for educational & Vocational training since 2001. For this purpose a
memoranda of understanding (MOU) namely “Memorandum of Understanding on
Co-operation in the Field of Education” was signed in 2006(MEA, 2015). This
memorandum promises close contacts between the educational institutes of both
the countries in the field of research, exchange of research material, publications,
educational literature, teaching aids, teachers, school etc. Various scholarships to
those Afghan nationals are offered who are interested to study in Indian
Universities for short courses as well as higher studies. The Indian Council for
Cultural Relations (ICCR) under a special scholarship scheme has offered almost
500 scholarships to Afghan students per year. A student can avail this scholarship
only after qualifying a country wide selection test. There are 6 seats per
region(MEA, 2015. p.16). Indian Council for Cultural Relations (ICCR) launched
a scheme of scholarship for Afghan students to study in India in 2005(Ani, 2014).
India had offered 1000 scholarships per year to Afghan students for studying in
Indian institutes and universities and almost 5000 students were studying in India.
b) Restoration of Habibia School;
The famous Habibia School in Kabul was also reconstructed by India(MEA. 2014. p.23).
The 102 year old school was re-opened after its restoration by the heads of states of both the countries during a state visit of Dr. Manmohan Singh to Afghanistan on August 28,
2005(Center M. , 2012).
78 c) Agricultural Education;
Around 300 scholarships are also granted to Afghan students for education of agriculture and its related fields in Indian Universities at under graduate, graduate, post graduate and
PhD Level(Laishram, 2011.p.776). US Aid is providing up to $13million to facilitate exchange programs and scholarships for Afghanistan’s agricultural development to
India(Price, 2013).
d) Skill Building Initiative;
When Indian Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh visited Afghanistan in 2005, both states agreed to launch a ‘skill building initiative’ in partnership with the Confederation of Indian Industries (CII) and United Nations (UN). India-Afghanistan Vocational
Training Centre was established by CII and the Afghan Ministry of Labor and Social
Welfare. It is providing training to Afghan youth in various fields like carpentry, masonry, welding, plumbing and tailoring. It is self-sustainable institution as its trained people get employment in the institute as trainers.
e) Indian Technical and Co-operation Programme;
Another programme for technical & professional training is Indian Technical and Co- operation programme. Under this program, India is offering 500 annual short term programs to Afghan nationals in any Indian Technical & Professional Institution of their own choice.
79 f) School Feeding Programme;
In June 2002, World Food Programme (WFP) was facing a serious resource
shortfall and was looking for donors to fund the new school feeding operation in
Afghanistan. India came forward to support the ‘Back to School’ campaign of
Afghanistan and under a ‘School Feeding Programme’ administered through the
WFP, India had supplied 100 grams of fortified, high-protein biscuits to nearly
two million school children every day(Laishram, 2011.p.776). The significance of
such support is evident from the following statement of Charles Vincent, WFP
Country Director, Afghanistan, as,
“We are very grateful to the Government of India for this contribution. It
has made a dramatic difference in our efforts to spread school feeding in
Afghanistan and has improved both health and educational condition of
many poor Afghan children”(MEA. 2015.p.13 ).
g) Small Projects
Some of the smaller projects being undertaken by India include;
I. Funding for the Afghan Ministry of Health to build and maintain medical
clinics, throughout Afghanistan,
2. The construction of cold storage food warehouses in Kandahar,
3. Establishing an agricultural university and a mining school,
4. Restoring the Stor Palace,
5. About 1,300 annual college scholarships and training grants for civil servants
(a further 200 scholarships for agricultural degrees were provided from 2010),
80 6. Deputing 20 Indian technical advisors in Afghan ministries under a trilateral
agreement with the UNDP, and
7. Programs for capacity building for Afghan Ministers(Price, 2013).
3.8 Indian NGO’s and Civil Society Activities in Afghanistan
Beside Indian Government, many Non-Governmental Organizations (NGO’s) of
India are also active in Afghanistan. Their main sphere of activities is social sector. In this regard the Self Employed Women Association of India (SEWA) is playing a significant role. SEWA is actually a single largest union of self employed women of
India. It works for social empowerment through economic self-reliance. It has achieved great success in Indian state of Gujarat and later on it spread its activities all over India. It started its operation in India in 2006(Price, 2013). It is working in the same sphere in
Kabul, Afghanistan where it has established a Community Learning and Business
Resource Center in 2007(Price, 2013). It has established a women vocational training
Centre which is situated in Baghe-Zanana, Kabul. It is providing professional and technical training to large number of women in garment making, embroidery, and nursery plantation and food techniques(MEA 2015, p.16). USAID is providing up to 1 million $ to SEWA to fund vocational training(Price, 2013) .The plan is to train 150 Afghan women in India and assist SEWA staff in traveling to Afghanistan to monitor the effectiveness of the training in increasing income level.
81 3.9 Afghan Capacity Building
Another important feature of India’s assistance programme in Afghanistan is the capacity building of Afghan people. Therefore, the bilateral development partnership between the two nations is currently focusing on the capacity development as well as building Afghan institutions.
i) Food Assistance; During the visit of Afghan President to India in January
2009, India gifted 250,000 metric tons of wheat to Afghanistan under the
‘New Food Aid’ program to overcome the country’s food crisis(Price, 2013)
ii) Signing of MOU; President Hamid Karzai, in his working visit to India from
23rd to 25th February, 2005 signed two memorandums of understanding
between India and Afghanistan namely;
1. MOU for cooperation in the field of civil aviation.
2. MOU for cooperation in the field of Media &information.
Hamid Karzai, in his state visit, to India from 9th to 13th April, 2006,
signed three memorandums of understanding (MOU’s) with the
government of India(Embassy of India Kabul). They were;
a) MOU for cooperation in the field of standardization.
b) MOU for cooperation in the field of Rural Development.
c) MOU for cooperation in the field of Education.
3.10 Cultural influence and Co-operation
82 For most part of Indian Sub-Continent history, Afghanistan was politically a part
of Indo-Pak sub-continent. Although it was mainly under Muslin influence, however,
India claims a joint tradition of culture & heritage and cultural ties with Afghanistan.
Following are the different aspects of their mutual co-operation;
a) Indian Films and Actors;
TheIndian films and their actors are very popular in Afghanistan(Price, 2013). The Dari
and Pashto are the main languages of Afghanistan but Kabul’s cinemas always display
Indian movies by dubbing them into Dari or Pashto. Therefore, before the arrival of
Taliban, Kabul was a big market for Indian cinema. Indian film industry was aware of its
importance in Afghanistan. That’s why many popular films of India which are based on
Afghanistan, created special place in the hearts of Afghans. Super hit movie of seasoned
Indian actor Amitabh Buchan’s “Badshah” in 80’s is an example.
b) Visits of Cultural Troops;
Cultural troops from both the countries had frequently visited each other’s countries
since long. But, during Taliban era, everything relevant to that ended. During Karzai
period, a Nauroz festival ( new year celebration) was started at Mazare-Sharif,
Afghanistan(2015). In this festival, Indian music groups participated regularly. On the
other hand, Afghan musical groups/bands singers and musicians frequently showed their
talents in Indian festivals. Even one of the prominent and popular Afghan musical bands
“Talaash” performed at the SAARC band festival on 20th Feb 2009 in New Delhi(MEA.
2015).
83 c) Cultural Institutions;
In 2007, with the support of Indian Council for Cultural relations, an Indian
Cultural Centre was set up at the embassy of India in Kabul in 2007(Debata,
2011. p. 805). The “India Afghanistan Foundation was also set up by India in
2008. Its scope of activities included educational, cultural, scientific and technical
cooperation. The foundation arranges seminars and conferences and run programs
for exchange of historians and scholars. It also translates books in local Afghan
languages i.e. Pashto and Dari. It has revived a quarterly literary magazine
“Hind”(MEA.205. p.16 ).
d) Restoration of Transmission lines for Radio Television Afghanistan (RTA);
Due to very poor law and order and security situation in the country, most of the transmission networks had been damaged badly. During the state visit of President
Hamid Karzai on 24 Feb, 2005, an MOU was signed in the field of media and information. The government of India started a project to uplink RTA from Kabul and downlink in all 34 provinces of Afghanistan(MEA.2015.p.16). For transmitting the signals of radio and TV to all 34 provinces of Afghanistan, an Indian Satellite INSAT3A was used(MEA. 2015.p.26 ). The restoration of damaged telecommunication networks in
11 provinces was also carried by India. TV hardware restoration was planned and carried out in Jalalabad and Nangharhar(MEA. 2015.p 176). Beside this, India has set up a TV studio, TV transmitter, five TV Relay Centre and a Mobile TV Satellite uplink(MEA.
20015. p. 16).
84 Collaboration with RTA;
The state owned Afghan Radio and Television Afghanistan (RTA) has planned to give coverage to all the Afghan historical monuments situated in India. The Radio and TV
Afghanistan is also exchanging programmers and media persons with all Indian Radio
Akashwani & Doordurshan, the, the state owned TV(MEA. 2015.p,26).
e) Indian Musical Instruments;
There is a huge demand of musical instruments in Afghanistan. Therefore, India has supplied musical instruments to various organizations including Universities, music academies, Afghan National Army Band & Radio and TV Afghanistan(MEA. 2015. p.4)
Conclusion
During Taliban period, India had no relations with Afghan government but after the interim government of Hamid Karzai sworn in, India offered support to the new government. Hamid Karzai studied in India. He had special affiliation with Indians. He visited India for 14 times. During his 12 year’s Presidential term, he maintained friendly relations with India. Therefore India provided assistance in the various fields from development of political consciousness to the development of oil and gas sector and got economic influence.
It has also invested in building dam, transmission lines, mining projects, educational scholarships and hospitals. India and Afghanistan had signed a strategic partnership agreement for further cooperation in military.
85 India has also invested in social sectors. Indians NGO’s are also working in
Afghanistan.
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91 Chapter – 4
Perception of Pakistan’s Political Elites Regarding Political and Economic Implications of the Indo-Afghan Relations for
Pakistan in Post 9/11 Era
After discussing the detail aspects of Indo-Afghan co-operation in various fields, now comes the major part of this research. That is the perception of Pakistani political elites namely journalists, politicians and civil and military beaurucracy. Their view was gathered through interviews regarding Indo-Afghan relations and their implications for
Pakistan. Therefore, by gathering and articulating informed Pakistani’s opinion regarding the evolving situation of Indo-Afghan relations, one can understand the perception of political elites of Pakistan. This research work is an effort to brainstorm ways in which intellectual capacities and views of political elites of Pakistan could be used as the in- depth analysis of the prevailing situation. These perceptions were captured mostly through the interviews (one-to-one personal interviews) by the researcher. However, few political elites were not approachable due to their unavailability; in the city or in the country, therefore, their already published/aired interviews were reviewed and wherever they are used, are properly cited. To be specific and get a very articulated response from the responded, following questions were prepared.
a) What are the Indian objectives in Afghanistan?
b) Why India is investing heavily in Afghanistan?
c) What is the role of India in promoting peace in Afghanistan, if it is any?
d) Is Indian foreign policy is not effected by regime change from Congress to
Baharatyiya Junta Party viz-a-viz Afghanistan?
e) Does Karzai to Ashraf Ghani means shift of policy paradigm in the region by
USA?
f) Does the developmental activities by Indians in Afghanistan are actually
developmental?
g) Keepingin mind the Indian track record of relations with neighbors, does it
really helping an extended neighbor?
h) Is India and Pakistan are fighting USA & China proxy war in Afghanistan?
i) Is Pakistan and India are fighting proxy war within Afghan soil?
j) Why India has painted a soft image for itself in Afghanistan?
k) What are the strategic implications of Indo-Afghan relations for Pakistan?
l) Why India was not granted a role in training of Afghan National Army?
Therefore, the perception of Pakistan’s political elites, regarding Indo-Afghan relations in the post 9/11 era and their political and social implications in the light of these above mentioned questions will be elaborated in this chapter.
93 India is the second most populous country in the world as its population is around fifty millions. The system of government is democracy therefore it claims itself as largest democracy of the world. Soon after independence from British Empire in August, 1947,
India started working for a constitution. The constitution of India was formed in 1951 and
India was declared Democratic Republic. The country was a federation with states and federally administered regions. States assemblies were established on the basis of adult franchise.
On the other hand, Afghanistan’s society is a tribal society. People have relationships and affiliations on the basis of tribes and kinship. The main feature of tribal system is that each and every member of the tribe must be faithful to the tribal elder (Chief of tribe).
That’s why there is no question of democracy in this set up. This was the reason that when king Amman Ulla Khan of Afghanistan tried to reform the system of government and brought fundamental changes in the Afghan society, he was overthrown. Later on,
King Zahir Shah remained as titular head and he let the old system run in the country.
Gradually, the Russian influence increased in the country and People’s Democratic Party of Afghanistan (PDPA) was established on 1 January 1965with pro-communist manifesto. The party was later on divided into two sections, namely Parcham and Khalq.
However, both the factions were supported by Mascow. When PDPA resumepower, it was tilted towards Union of Soviets Socialist Republics (USSR) and its freinds
4.1 Nature of Indo-Afghan Relations/ Myth and Reality:
India was the founding member of Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) but it always supported pro-Russian regimes of Afghanistan.That’s why Dr. Najib-Ullah government was openly supported by Indians in 80’s. It was after the fall of President Dr. Najib Ulla
94 that India lost its foot holds in Afghanistan. Different groups of Mujahedeen form the government in Kabul but it did not last long. Intensive mutual feuds and indifferences lead to civil war. In this scenario, Taliban emerged, started another unending war, fighting against different opponents at different times in the coming years, from Northern
Alliance to ISAAF, NATO and USA.
In this background, when the nature of relationship of these countries is discussed, it is clear that it is seldom friendly and remained hostile for most of the time.
Former ambassador of Pakistan, Khalid Mehmood is of the view that these three countries are geographically congenital; India, Afghanistan and Pakistan and all of them had very close relations and historical links. The relationship between Indo-Pak subcontinents during British rule as British India with neighboring Afghanistan was hostile. The successor states inherited these hostilities. Due to the certain unresolved issues, Pakistan and India became foe of each other. On the other hand, India joined hand with Afghanistan. Therefore, the relation between Pakistan and India are not smooth but there were many ups and downs in their mutual relationships. There are still issues like
Kashmir, water dispute, Sir Creek etc. Both countries have bitter history of relationship as both have strategic, economic and political issues. Along with these issues, there was and is significant interference of external powers in the region. The nature of relations of
Pakistan and India earlier with Russia, British and then Union of Soviets Socialist
Republics, NATO, USA, always affected the strategies.(Khalid Mehmood; personal communication.6/9/2015)
Senator Shafqat Mehmood, Senator and Chief Organizer of Tehreek-Insaf in Punjab elab- orated that Afghanistan was not very friendly neighbor but after Russian invasion,
95 Pakistan started supporting different Jihadist (Islamic fighter) groups and among all,
Pakistan supported Gul Badin Hikmatyar group. He said that as far as he remembers, its name was Harkate-e-Islami. After the defeat of Communist Russia and the victory of
Afghan Mujahedeen, many internal disputes of Afghan Jihadist groups came out. The contradictions within Afghan politics were based on ethnicity i.e. Pukhtoons and non-
Pukhtoons. Many Pukhtoons and non-Pukhtoons groups were fighting. As Pakistan was supporting Pushtoon Hikmatyar group, therefore their opponents like Northern Alliance and Punjsheris whose major leader was Ahmad Shah Masoodtookit as interfering in
Afghanistan’s internal disputes, also became opponent of Pakistan. Therefore, whether
Pakistan got anything out of this support or not, it created enemies of Pakistan within
Afghanistan. All the opponents of Gul Badin Hikmatyar ultimately became the enemies of Pakistan. So Pakistan became a controversial country in Afghanistan. (Shafqat
Mehmood; Personal communiation. 10-06-2015)
Rustam Shah Mehmundelaborated that Pakistan’s policy regarding Afghanistan has always two negative features; one is to seek favorites’ and it is implied since 80’s when
Russians invaded Afghanistan. Since then, in Afghanistan, Pakistan supported one group or the other, one commander or the other, one leader or the other, one party or the other and continued investment on different warring groups. It was the practice throughout the period. The right course would be to invest in Afghanistan not on political groups. The investment had to be neutral, not particular on any group like Pukhtoon or Uzbek or
Hazara or Sunni or Shia. But the investment should be on people of Afghanistan. The general perception according to Afghans is the most hated country in the world is
Pakistan. In many surveys Afghans declared Iran or Turkey or India as their favorite
96 country but Pakistan is unanimously most hated country in Afghanistan. (Rustam Shah
Mehmund; personal communication. 2/9/2016)
Rustam Shah Mehmund is of the view that Pakistan always looks at Afghanistan in
Indian perceptive. India is a large country. India is emerging economic power of the area.It is going to be fourth or fifth largest economy of the world. It has to create space for itself within the region. It is developing its relations with the other countries of the region to increase its sphere of influence. It has a standing in the region. He asked that why it stop doing so? It is its right to grow and increases its influence. However, what
Pakistani authorities should do is to make sure that the Afghan soil must not be used against Pakistan by the third country, be it India or some other country . For this surety,
Pakistan can ask for some sort of guarantees from Afghan government. He said that if
India build a power station for Afghans, what’s wrong with it? If they built a road what harm is in it? (Rustam Shah Mehmund; personal communication. 2/9/2016)
Rustam Shah Mehmund, while analyzing the India’s attitude with its neighbors said that there are many misperceptions between two countries. It might be possible that Indian military Intelligence is being used against Pakistan and they are interfering in Baluchistan and Sind. It is not out of question. They might be doing so. Likewise Indians propagate that Pakistan’s Intelligence agencies have agents in Middle East where they contact with the Indians working there and hire them for spying activities. Moreover, the Indian stand is that Pakistan’s activities are creating unrest in Indian Occupied Kashmir. On the other hand, the neighbors of India have the same complains of interference by Indians in their countries. For instance, Nepal and Bangladesh are complaining against Indian policies in their countries. India had openely supported Tamil rebels in Srilanka (Rustam Shah
97 Mehmund; personal communication. 2/9/2016).The complains by the neighboring countries might be true or misunderstandings. Therefore they must be addressed in appropriate way and must be resolved.
As far as the bi-lateral relations of the two countries namely India and
Afghanistan are concerned, Lt. General Rtd. Asad Durrani is of the view that Indians and
Afghans have good relations. Whenever you talk with Indians, they say that they have historical relationships with Afghanistan. This is actually one way of putting across something. Pakistan also shares these historical relations as it was also part of it. Rather
Indian Muslims have much closer relations with Afghans. (Lt. General Rtd. Asad
Durrani:Personal Communication.9/9/2015)
On the other hand, Rustam Shah Mehmund comments on Indian claims regarding historic relationship with Afghans that it is just a mindset because of continuous propaganda by Indian governments. In fact, for Indo-Pak subcontinent, Afghans were always invaders, warriors and dacoits. Afghan king, Nadir Shah destroyed the capital
Delhi. Even Mahmud of Ghazna's, 17 attacks on India are still considered by Indians historians as planned invasions in the lust of gold and wealth. (Rustam Shah Mehmund; personal communication. 2/9/2015)
Professor Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema mentioned thatIndian ancient era political philosopher Chankiya or Kotalya, in their book, Urth Shastir mentioned a principle that befriend with enemy’s neighbor. Then enemy will be pressurized and could be sandwiched. This is the policy of Indian government. (Professor Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema.
Personal communication on 17-09-2015)
98 Lt. General Rtd. Asad Durrani also quoted that there is a famous quotation of
Kotalya (Chankiya) is that neighbor of my neighbor is my friend. Indian follows this principle very much. Whenever, you talk about it, they denied by saying no, no, it is very old story. But the fact is that they follow it blindly even at present. As far as Pakistan’s relationship with Afghanistan is concerned, they will and they have continued even if
Indians play their cards because, Pakistan has no problem with Afghans. Afghans ruled
India for 200 years. The problem of Afghanistan is Pakistan not India. The idea always is just to convey their problem of neighbor’s neighbors. Afghans played their cards very well. They will get all the benefits from Pakistan as well as India. (Lt. General Rtd. Asad
Durrani:Personal Communication.9/9/2015)
Commenting on nature of Indo–Afghan relations, Khalid Mehmood elucidated that during Karzai period which was a long period as he served for more than two terms,
Afghanistan government welcomed India in their country. Not only that but they avoid having similar relationship with Pakistan. Given history of Pakistan’s relations with
Afghanistan and the continued problem of insurgency by Taliban and trans-border incursion within Afghanistan, all meant that Indian influence has painted Pakistan’s image as negative. These images were cemented after agreement of Strategic Partnership between India and Afghanistan in 2011. Not only with India but, Afghanistan had a similar agreement with government of Iran while a similar agreement with Pakistan was refused by Afghanistan. Consequently, the strategic co-operation and military collaboration between India and Afghanistan is growing and with Pakistan, it is missing.
India and Afghanistan are co-operating in training and equipping Afghan forces. India has bought arms from Russians for Afghanistan apart from supplying their own. They
99 have established military base in Farkhor, Tajikistan near the Afghan-Tajik border. It is
established for exerting their influence in Afghanistan but it has bad effects on Pakistan.
(Khalid Mehmood; personal communication.6/9/2015)
Rustam Shah Mehmund further added that Indians are about to get benefits out ofAfghanistan.
Afghanistan is an important country of the region as it is adjacent to China and Central
Asian Republics. All these things matter for Indians that is why they are interested in
physical presence as well as substantial presence in Afghanistan. It is just like other
countries as it is in Bangladesh, where India is showing its presence. Their policy is to
invest in Afghanistan due to its geo-strategic importance. They want to develop cultural
relations with Afghanistan. The new government of Mr. Narendra Modi is basically
under the influence of Rashteriya Saivak Singh which is openly anti-Pakistan.
Manmohan Singh, ex-Prime Minister of India, visited Afghanistan for three times. Mr.
Narendra Modi, the Prime Minister of India has not visited yet (Later on he visited on
25thDecember, 2015 for inauguration and handing over of Afghan Parliament building)
but due to its policies regarding Pakistan, they will definitely develop good relations
with Afghanistan in order to counter Pakistan and to force Pakistan to negotiate and
adopt peaceful manners as confrontation policy is not in their favor. (Rustam Shah
Mehmund; personal communication. 2/9/2015)
Rustam Shah Mehmund, while elaborating misconceptions in Pakistan regarding Indian
role in Afghanistan narrated an incident when he was serving in Afghanistan as
ambassador of Pakistan. He said that he had observed at many occasions that there
wasstrong hate phobia existing in Pakistan regarding India. He narrated an incident from
recent past when India was planning to send biscuits for Afghan school children as aid.
100 Pakistani authorities did not let Indians to use Pakistan land route. In order to solve the issuee, he had to intervene in the matter personally. Therefore, he met with then President
Gen Rtd. Perviaz Musharaf who issued order for early transportation of biscuits from
India to Pakistan. He was of the view that this sort of things annoyed Afghans. (Rustam
Shah Mehmund; personal communication. 2/9/2015)
Khalid Mehmood is of the view that Afghans were always heavily financed by different countries of the world. Whether they were Russians or Americans or others, interestingly, they were equally assisted by Capitalist and Communist bloc countries. During Tokyo conference, which was held to collect donations and aid for Afghanistan, the donor countries pledged handsome amounts. Let see how much they will get. (Khalid
Mehmood; personal communication.6/9/2015)
Rustam Shah Mehmund narrated that Afghans are of the view that as they are getting aid from the whole world, India is also investing $ 2 billion there. It is not a special favor by
India but as the part of world community, they are helping them out. When it is mentioned before any Afghan, they get annoyed and ask that what’s wrong with this whether, Iran invest in their country or China or Brazil or Korea or Sudan. This must not be the concern of Pakistan. Their relations with Afghanistan should be continued at normalcy level. (Rustam Shah Mehmund; personal communication. 2/9/2015)
The idea of a seperate homeland for Pashtoo speaking population of Pakistan was floated by Afghan Government in the very early years of Pakistan. It always annoyed the government of Pakistan. This idea was not able to get much support from Pakistan’s
Pashtoo speaking population. Journalist Haroon Rashid and Defense analyst Arshaad
Mehmood told their perception regarding Pakhtoonistan Issue. They said that it does not
101 exist at the moment however; it was problematic for Pakistan’s recent past history. But if
India or some other country with bad intention, starting funding, it will be again revive.
The meetings, the conferences, the seminars, the pamphlets, the books, then the hoisting of flag, recitations of poems; all this leads to an ultimate formation of movement. It will take 5 to10 years. Any issue can be highlighted if it is financed or there is any master mind behind all this. (Personal communication; Haroon Rashid. 6/5/2015)
On the prospect of any movement of Pakhtoonistan in Khyber Pakhtoonkhaw area of
Pakistan, Salim Safi’s analysis is that if the tension between Pakistan and India continues, then Pakistan willtry to get benefit or settle its score at every venture whether it is at diplomatic front, economic front, through proxies to push two countries against each other and to get benefit out of it. Similarly, India will do the same. Only then there is any prospect of movement of Pakhtoonistan in Khyber Pakhtoonkhaw area of Pakistan.
(Salim Safi; personal communication. 25-05-2015)
4.2 Afghan Refugees Problem:
Pakistan is among the few countries of the world which hosted millions of Afghan
Refugees for decades. Gradually refugees assimilated themselves into Pakistani society.
Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema narrated that back in eighties, when Pakistan was getting $ 4 billion annually from USA as aid, Pakistan invited Afghans with open arms and open policy. The result is that they spread everywhere in Pakistan as there were no restrictions on them. On the other hand, Iran confined them into Refugee Camps. They were not allowed to leave the place for jobs and studies. (Professor Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema.
Personal communication on 17-09-2015)
102 About Afghan Refugees, Rahim Ullah Yousafzai said that presently according to the careful estimates, there are 30 million Afghans in Pakistan. He said that according to
United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR), about 1.7 million registered
Afghans are in Pakistan. Unregistered are not known although its rough estimate is 1 million plus. There are about 3 millions in Pakistan. (Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai. Personal communication on 5th September 2015)
During all the years of war, unrest and rifts, millions of common people of
Afghanistan took refuge in Pakistan. On the other hand, many Afghan elites opted for
India and they stayed there with their families. Some are even still there for instance,
Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai narrated that ex-Afghan President Hamid Karzai stayed in
Shimla, State of Utterpardesh, India for 5 years. He went there through a youth exchange programme. He can speak Urdu very well. The families of Afghan communists are also
Delhi based. Dr. Najib Ullah’s family is living in Delhi. Dr. Abdullah family is also there.
(Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai. Personal communication on 5th September 2015)
Lt. General Rtd. Asad Durrani narrated that when a Pakistani talk with any
Afghan in Kabul or elsewhere in Afghanistan, they immediately reply as, “Oh Pakistan, we born there, we study there”. The ground reality is that those Afghans who can afford have bought houses in Peshawar. Their families are settled in Rawalpindi and Islamabad.
Their businesses are in Karachi. They are scattered in all over Pakistan. They are now part of Pakistan after living here for so many years. (Lt. General Rtd. Asad
Durrani:Personal Communication.9/9/2015)
While talking about those who stayed in Pakistan, Rahim Ullah Yousafzai told that current Afghan foreign minister; Mr. Salah-ud-Din Rabbani is one of those as he was
103 brought up, educated and married in Pakistan. He is Tajik but can speak good Urdu and
Pashto. He stayed in Peshawar, Pakistan for decades. (Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai. Personal communication on 5th September 2015)Therefore, Pakistan cannot stay out of Afghan matters as despite of time to time tensions between two governments namely Pakistan and Afghanistan, ordinary Afghans second home is Pakistan. That’s why Afghanistan is compelled to have good relations with Pakistan. (Lt. General Rtd. Asad Durrani:Personal
Communication.9/9/2015
4.3Indian and Afghan Leadership
Professor Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema elaborated that in India, there is regime change from Congress to Bharatia Junta Party (BJP). Congress theoretically favors local or regional politics. On the other hand, BJP favors global image. As far as their relations are concerned, there is regime change not only in India but in Afghanistan too. If Karzai were there, the cordial relations were likely to continue. But the situation now is that
Ashraf Ghani has realized that for the stability in Afghanistan, Pakistan is essential; a friendly Pakistan obviously. On the other hands, Indians are interfering in Baluchistan.
The Line of Control (LOC), the border line between two Kashmir’s, Indian occupied and
Pakistani held is also active where almost every day, Indians are firing on peaceful un- armed villagers of Pakistani held Kashmir. So Indians are increasing pressure on
Pakistan. (Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema. Personal communication on 17-09-2015)
Rustam Shah Mehmund discussed the impact of regime change in India on Indo-
Afghan relations. He said that Indian National Congress policy is directed towards regional politics.For example it is obvious during Congress party rule when Indian Prime
104 Minister wasManmohan Singh as he was more tilted towards regional countries while
Bharatia Junta Party (BJP) is for global perspective. It is depicted by their slogans like shining India, rising India etc. Shift of regime will not affect the policies of Indian government vis-à-vis Pakistan. Priorities could be re-numbered but the policies are more are less the same. (Rustam Shah Mehmund; personal communication. 2/9/2015)
Rustam Shah Mehmund believes that Indians wants to invest in Afghanistan because, he argued that Indians wants to show physical presence, economic presence, political presence and cultural presence assuming that people of Afghanistan want this.
Afghans says that as Pakistan is creating problems for Afghans, Indians are of the view that Pakistan is creating problems for them in Abu-Dhabi, Nepal and Bangladesh. Despite the good relations of Nepal, Abu-Dahbi and Bangladesh with India, Indians are of the view that Pakistan is creating problem for India as contacting the Indians who are working there. So, they want to teach lesson to Pakistan that if they want to create problems for them, they will reciprocally for them in their neighborhood.They want to maintain their physical presence there in Afghanistan at any cost. Secondly, it is the geostrategic compulsion for them as well as geo-economic compulsion. Therefore they are investing and increasing their sphere of influence in Afghanistan. (Rustam Shah
Mehmund; personal communication. 2/9/2015)
Professor Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema thinks that even the change of government from
Karzai to Ashraf Ghani in Afghanistan is a shift of policy. When Ashraf Ghani won the election, it was not a clear majority as Nawaz Sharif, Primeminister of Pakistan had. It was a win with very little majority. His opponent Abdullah is Tajik and very much titled towards India as he is from Northern Alliance. India has great influence on him. After
105 sworn in for his presidency, the things were very friendly and comfortable. The high level delegations visited each other country. Pakistan’s Army Chief welcomed Ashraf Ghani in
GHQ Rawalpindi, Pakistan. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif also met him. (Professor
Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema. Personal communication on 17-09-2015
Salim Safi is of the opinion that in Pakistan, the formulation of foreign policy is primarily controlled by army. However, in Afghanistan, their army is not as strong to interfere in policy matters. The President of Afghanistan is the most powerful person in the country as he is also the chief executive. As compared to Pakistan’s Prime Minister and President, the Afghan President is much more authoritative. (Salim Safi; personal communication. 25-05-2015)
Salim Safi opined thatHamid Karzai visited India for fourteen times during his tenure of twelve years. But it is not a measure to assess the level of relationship between two countries. Hamid Karzai had visited Pakistan more than any of the Afghan President or
King. Likewise, during his tenure, the visits of Afghanistan by Pakistan’s Chief
Executives were more than the past whole history. However, it is also true that during the last few years of Hamid Karzai in the office of President of Afghanistan, the relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan were at their lowest level. On the other hand, their relationship with India was at the height of cordialness. The reason behind this relation is not the personality of Mr. Hamid Karzai rather it has a long history of historic relationship with Pakistan and friendly ties with India. When a country became an enemy of a country, it is quiet natural that its enemy becomes its friend. Due to this reason, Mr.
Hamid became close to the Indians. But there were leaders and heads of state in
106 Afghanistan who had much more friendly relations with India as compare to Mr. Karzai.
(Salim Safi; personal communication. 25-05-2015)
Haroon Rashid and Arshaad Mehmood elaborated the cause of Pakistan’s support for
Taliban during the period of President Pervaiz Musharaf. They said that, recently
Musharaf commented in his interview to a local TV channel that Afghan President
Hamid Karzai was playing in Indian hands that’s why he was supporting Taliban. New regime in Afghanistan has reverted the bad days. Specially, the use of Afghan land against Pakistan is not visible as it was earlier. It might be in use but not as openly as it was in President Hamid Karzai's time. (Personal communication: Haroon Rashid and
Arshaad Mehmood. 6/5/2015)
Lt General Retired Asad Durrani is of the view that President Hamid Karzai was more crook and tricky. In fact, he handled Americans very well. In the last days of his first term as President, he refused to sign the agreement for the extension of the stay period of ISAF forces. He told me (General Asad Durrani) so. He told those Americans to wait till next year, as the Presidential elections were pending. After one year, when he was re-elected as President for second term, he then signed the document. (Lt. General
Rtd. Asad Durrani:Personal Communication.9/9/2015)So, he was a clever man and was handling Americans very intelligently.
Salim Safi describes that Mr. Hamid Karzai’s period can be divided into many phases. Initially, his name was suggested to Americans by Pakistan and on Pakistan’s advice, he was selected as President of Afghanistan in Bon Conference, Bon, Germany in
2002. In the first presidential election, held in 2004, he was selected because of Pakistan as Pakistan had rigged the polls in favor of Mr. Karzai, held in Pakistan for Afghan
107 Refugees. Second time, despite the ups and downs of relations, Pakistan supported him when he was contesting the elections. As compared to other candidates, he was declared the favorite candidate of Pakistan. Due to the support of Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and
China also supported him. That’s why; despite of the opposition of USA, Mr. Karzai won due to the support of Pakistan and its allies. It means that Pakistan was supporting Mr.
Karzai. He was considered close to Pakistan as compared to others who were befriending with India. Salim Safi further added that two or three incidents occur in the meanwhile for instance during Mumbai attack, in India, Afghan President did not issue any statement and did not try to exploit the situation at borders. While interviewing Mr. Hamid Karzai that what will be his stand if USA engages Pakistan in a war, he replied that if so happened, the Afghans will not support Americans but Pakistan. When Salim Safi asked about India, Hamid Karzai’s reply was that whoever engages Pakistan in war, will be opposed by Afghans themselves. In his last tenure, his relations were not good either with
USA or with Pakistan. However, with India, he had developed good relations. The relations between Afghanistan and India were not as good as propagated by Pakistani authorities. (Salim Safi; personal communication. 25-05-2015)
Salim Safi elucidated that Hamid Karzai was initially welcomed because he was the nomine of Pakistan. Infact, in jihad’s days, Mr. Hamid Karzai was the part of
Sibghat-Ullah-Mujadadi”s Hizb-e-Islami. That party was considered, a proxy of Pakistan.
Then Mr. Karzai also supported Taliban’s in their initial days. His support for Taliban was due to Pakistan as well as UNICOL Oil Company for which he was working.Afterwards, his relations with Taliban become hostile. He came to Pakistan and started his struggle against sitting Afghan government from Pakistan. Meanwhile, his
108 father was assassinated in Quetta. Mr. Karzai use to hold Pakistan responsible for this murder. He also said more than once that for the sake of friendship with Pakistan, he had forgiven the murderers of his father. (Salim Safi; personal communication. 25-05-2015)
Describing the compulsion of Pakistan for supporting Hamid Karzai, Salim Safi elaborated that after 9/11 when Taliban’s also became against Pakistan then Pakistan had left with no choices. Therefore it started supporting Hamid Karzai due to the following reasons;
a) He was Pukhtoon
b) Earlier, he was working with Pakistan’s intelligence agencies
c) He was living in Quetta, Pakistan, for almost a decade
d) He was acceptable for West also due to his moderate personality
e) During both the presidental elections, the candidates other than Karzai were
considered more anti-Pakistan according to the Pakistan establishment. (Salim
Safi; personal communication. 25-05-2015)
On the other hand, about Mr. Ashraf Ghani, Lt General Rtd Asad Durrani views are that the sitting President of Afghanistan is not crook at all. He is not a politician but a technocrat. In initial rounds of elections, he got just 35% of total votes casted. The rest were bagged by former foreign minister, Dr. Abdullah .Abdullah, a Tajik by origin. This situation was not acceptable for Afghan Taliban. They sent women and their people to vote against Dr. Abdullah. Earlier, as per their policy doctrine, they barred their women from vote casting. Now, in order to support a Pukhtoon candidate, they let their men and ladies to vote for Ashraf Ghani. Therefore, he won. Interesting to note that Afghans don’t like democracy as it is not a system of their choice. They think that through this system,
109 an agent of foreign occupied forces can become President. Therefore, according to
Afghans, it is not a fair way of selection. (Lt. General Rtd. Asad Durrani:Personal
Communication.9/9/2015)
Lt. General Rtd. Asad Durrani is of the view that Karzai was more Afghan than
Ashraf Ghani. As Mr. Ashraf Ghani’s only qualification is being Pukhtoon. He is not
aware of politics, real politics and pragmatism within Afghanistan’s country politics. In
fact, Afghans are very active in these aspects as they join even their foes if their interest
allows them. Their alliances continuously change and the game of interest continues.
Ashraf Ghani was initially in favor of Pakistan but now he is against Pakistan; he will be
in favor after two months. (Lt. General Rtd. Asad Durrani:Personal
Communication.9/9/2015)
Lt. General Rtd. Asad Durrani elaborated that Mr. Ashraf Ghani did two mistakes
at the initial stages of his Presidentship. First is that he thanked the USA President for all
those 4000 soldiers who had been killed in Afghanistan. He said that he was thankful to
those American who died for the freedom of Afghanistan. This statement was not liked
by the people back in Afghanistan as well as in Pakistan. He had not mentioned the
killings of hundreds and thousands of Afghans, women, children and men. Mr. Ashraf
Ghani is honest, clean and open man. But these are not the pre-requisites of the state
craft. A famous saying is that if you can’t ride two horses at a time, leave the circus. You
don’t have any right to be into it. Therefore, a simple honest technocrat is a misfit in this
system. In politics, the traits of themorality, honesty and loyalty are nothing. Only the
interest of the state is the foremost priority. (Lt. General Rtd. Asad Durrani:Personal
110 Communication.9/9/2015) This statement of Gen Asad is supporting the neo realist theory.
Journalist Haroon Rashid and defense analyst Arshaad Mehmood had met with
Mr. Ashraf Ghani. Their view is that it seems that Ashraf Ghani is a positive and determined man. It seems that he came to do something and will resolve issues with commitment. Sometime, they said, we feel that the person, in front of us will stick in the middle. But, as far as Mr. Ashraf Ghani is concerned, he is determined and committed man so far. To achieve one's objective, one has to motivate multiple factors for instance, media, civil society, common man and economist. A proper strategy has to be adapted.
Only then the goodwill could be achieved. Ashraf Ghani has almost re-oriented all the relations with neighbors. (Personal communication; Haroon Rashid. 6/5/2015)
they requested for the meeting with Pakistan’s Army Chief. It was regretted on the grounds that Chief was busy due to the Independence day's celebration. Rahim Ullah said that in his view, it was a way of showing displeasure. However they met with Prime
Minister Nawaz Sharif. Inter-Services Intelligence Agency (ISI) Chief Lt. General Akhtar was also there. There was another meeting of Afghan delegation with Pakistan's foreign affairs advisor to Prime Minister, Mr. Sartaj Aziz. Afghan foreign minister Salah-ud-Din
Rabbani was also the part of Afghan delegation. They met with these political figures but
Pakistan army depicts its displeasure on Afghan President’s statements. After this sort of harsh statements from Afghan side, how Pakistan can co-operate with Afghans as Afghan
President Ashraf Ghani has violated the agreement. (Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai. Personal communication on 5th September 2015)
111 While elaborating the further details, Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai said that on 4th
September 2015, when head of Pakistan National Security Council and advisor to Prime
Minister on foreign affairs, Mr. Sartaj Aziz visited Kabul in order to attend the
Reconstruction and Economic Conference on Afghanistan in Kabul; he met with
President Ashraf Ghani. Again Mr. Ghani pledged that Afghans will remain silent. Mr.
Sartaj Aziz told that Mr. Ashraf Ghani was willing to have cordial and friendly relations with Pakistan. (Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai. Personal communication on 5th September
2015)
Khalid Mehmood commented on Ashraf Ghani Presidentship as a positive move.
He said that happily after the induction of Ashraf Ghani in the President’s office, things seem as little bit changed. That policy of confrontation was not the solution as the solution of Afghan problems lies in the co-operation of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Without annoying other countries, both countries should co-operate with each other. The solution of not only Afghan’s but of Pakistan’s problems also lies in co-operation. Now there is increasing economic co-operation. In military and strategic fields, things are also improving but it is just beginning. There is sharing of intelligence and other things. More work on these lines is required. There is legacy of mistrust and it will take time.
Afghanistan has already sent its cadets for training in Pakistan military establishment in
Abbottabad, Pakistan Military Academy Kakul. These are obviously, some positive indications. Afghan Army Chief was the chief guest in the passing out parade of Pakistan
Military Academy Kakul this year. It was a break through and unheard. However, work on strategic partnership agreement with Afghanistan is still required. That will depend on
112 how far Pakistanis are able to end the mistrust between two countries. (Khalid Mehmood; personal communication.6/9/2015)
Salim Safi elaborated that there are many misconceptions regarding the power and authority of Afghan President Hamid Karzai. He said that people sometime name Hamid
Karzai as Mayor of Kabul. It is just a misconception. Infact, Hamid Karzai visited every provincial capital city. On the other hand, Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari, during his five year tenure, never sat his foot on an inch area of Federally Administrative Tribal
Area (FATA) for even a second, although that area was under his jurisdiction. Pakistan’s sitting Prime Minister Mian Nawaz Sharif only once visited FATA. Even now in
Baluchistan, there are many areas which are No-Go-Areas. No official can dare to enter there. Certain things are exaggerated in a way that people without its justification repeat it. If one anchor calls some person with some false allegation, people pick it and spread it. It was the same case when people start naming Mr. Hamid Karzai as Mayor of Kabul.
(Salim Safi; personal communication. 25-05-2015)
While discussing the system of government in Afghanistan, Salim Safi elaborated that in Afghanistan, there are 34 provinces. They have Governors in every province.
These Governors are nominated persons. They are powerful. Then there is Provincial
Assembly which is an elected body. It regularly met in its sessions. There is nothing non sense more than this notion that Afghan Government has no writ in Northern
Afghanistan. Infact it is even more than what they have in Kabul. In Kabul, there is no
Talib, no tension and no resistance. In Mazar Sharif and other areas, there is no resistance and Taliban factor so that writ of government is much more in Northern Afghanistan. The most troubled area was Qandahar. It is the hometown of Hamid Karzai. Therefore,
113 educated people must not believe on myths. Election turnout in recent presidential elections between Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah-Abdullah was about 67%. It is more than of Pakistan 2013 elections (General) which was about 54%. The civil administration of
Afghanistan is much more powerful than Pakistan. The Afghan President has changed many Army Chiefs. But it is impossible for a Pakistani executive to do so as it was in the case of President Musharaf. Pakistan’s Prime Minister cannot change the head of any spy agency with his discretion while Mr. Hamid Karzai changed three chiefs of NDS, Afghan
Intelligence Agency. (Salim Safi; personal communication. 25-05-2015)
Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai told about his meeting with Core Commander Peshawar Lt.
Gen. Hidayat ur-Rehman. He met him in the last week of August, 2015. The journalists were briefed on prevailing security situation of Pakistan which is off the record. When he was asked about the improvement in relations of two nations, he told them that good relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan are superficial and are at top level only. As
Ashraf Ghani agreed to have good relations, he promised not to pointing fingers or blames each other that’s why he kept silent for 10 months. This good-will was not filter down. He said that their border militia, their force commander, their intelligence agency
NDS, all persons attitude is hostile towards Pakistan. There is no change. Gen Hidayat
Ullah told them that unless and until there is co-operation at lower level, the peace and cordial relation cannot be maintained. Therefore, situation in Afghanistan is still as hostile as it was in Karzai’s period and Ashraf Ghani is no exception. There is obviously symbolic meetings and visits from both the sides but it is just a symbolism. Ashraf Ghani came to Pakistan. Nawaz Sharif was not here that’s why he went to General Head Quarter
(GHQ). He was the first Afghan leader who was welcomed in Pakistan Army GHQ. He
114 was served with Guard of Honor, a formal ceremonial ceremony presented to guest of
honor by armed personals. He met with Chief of Army Staff Gen Raheel Sharif in Army
General Head Quarters Rawalpindi. It is just symbolism. (Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai.
Personal communication on 5th September 2015)
Rahim Ullah Yousafzai continued his narration of the events. He said that after the visit of President Ashraf Ghani, the Afghan Army Chief came to Pakistan. He was the chief guest in the passing out parade of Pakistan Military Academy (PMA) Kakul,
Abottabad. For the first time in the history of the two countries, six Afghan cadets came to the PMA for training. Another was sent to Pakistan Army Command and Staff
College, Quetta. He is already an officer in Afghan Army. He was sent there for advance training. It is also a goodwill gesture. Even Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff has offered to
Afghan President that Pakistan can train, arm and equip a whole Brigade of Afghan
Army if required. It means that it will then fight against Taliban. It is possible that if the relations turn into hostility then they might fight against Pakistan. They have not accepted it as they are moving step by step. It is a shift of policy from Pakistan’s side. This offer is still on table. (Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai. Personal communication on 5th September 2015)
4.4 India’s Hegemonic Interest:
Regarding India’s hegemonic interests, Senator Shafqat Mehmoodbelieves that
India has hegemonic interests in Afghanistan. He said that there is no doubt in it. It is
definitely a regional power if not global. Particularly it wants to dominate Pakistan. India
feels that Pakistan has to be contained in number of different things. Among them is the
support of (Baluchistan National Alliance) BNA in Baluchistan and etc. But a recent
115 development is there which is worth noticing. When Ashraf Ghani came into power, he tried to improve relations, with Pakistan. His good will was dependent on certain aspiration of Afghans. Their aspirations were the same as earlier Mr. Karzai had. As their view is that Pakistan is controlling Taliban so that Pakistan should bring Taliban to the negotiating table. Our aspiration was that wanted men like Moulana Fazul Ullah of Swat and people like him should be handed over to Pakistan. Now the situation is not very favorable. Earlier, there were visible demonstration of friendship between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Now it seems that Afghans are a little bit disappointed. They are thinking that Pakistan has not fulfilled its promises. In my opinion, it is wrong. For the first time in the political and military history of Pakistan, I can smell sincerity.(Shafqat Mehmood;
Personal communiation10-06-2015)
Khalid Mehmood elucidated that Indians role in the region is like of big brothers attitude. It is not like of elder brothers but of big brother. It is evident in past history, not only with Pakistan but with all the neighbors. Pakistan has some leverage which it has been using. There are many commonalities between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Rather there are more commonalities as much more than India and Afghanistan has. Those positive factors have to be emphasized. It is in India’s interest to have co-operation in
Pakistan and Afghanistan. (Khalid Mehmood; personal communication.6/9/2015)
Shafqat Mehmood was asked that why India is investing heavily in Afghanistan?
He replied that there are two reasons. First that India thinks itself as regional power.
Being a regional power, it wants to have influence on every country of the region.
Afghanistan can be a gateway for Central Asia. Secondly India wants to encircle
Pakistan. It thinks that in order to irritate or contain Pakistan, it should increase its
116 influence in Afghanistan. In order to achieve these two objectives, they will definitely help them, finance them and assist them. Even once they had offered for the training of
Afghan National Army although it was not finalized.(Shafqat Mehmood; Personal communication10-06-2015)
While commenting on India’s relations with its immediate and extending neighbors, Rahim Ullah Yousafzai told that India is a large country. It is area wise 6 time of Pakistan. Population wise it is much bigger. It has more resources its economy is better than Pakistan. Therefore, it has big aspirations. It has ambitions due to being a largest democracy in the world. Being the largest one in the region, it has many neighbors
(direct). Almost with every one, India has border dispute; Pakistan, China, Bangladesh,
Srilanka, Nepal, Burma and Bhutan. With Bangladesh, they have recently solved their border disputes: In fact when Sheikh Hassina Wajid of Awami League took office in
Bangladesh, Indo-Bangla relations touched the height of cordial relations. While during
Mrs. Khalida Zia period, these tensions increased because she is anti-India. (Rahim Ullah
Yousaf Zai. Personal communication on 5th September 2015)
While elaborating the details of India’s relations with its neighborhood, Rahim
Ullah Yousaf Zai, added that, Nepal is the only Hindu Kingdom in the world but it has many issues with India. Now it is trying to balance India by co-operating China. China has invested heavily in Nepal. India wants to control all his neighbors. Pakistan is against
India hegemony. That’s why their most tensions and wars are with Pakistan. Rahim Ullah
Yousaf Zai is of the view that Indian factor is now very important for Pakistan. It is also important as the line of Control in Kashmir is bone of contention. Eight to ten other problems are also there. Some are old or some are new. None was solved. Agreement on
117 Sir Creek is ready. Siachen was near to be resolved but India has upper hand due to the political unrest into Pakistan. It is taking advantage of it. India now wants to control
Pakistan through Afghanistan. India declares Afghanistan, during international conferences as their immediate neighbor. They claimed Pakistani held Kashmir as illegally occupied Kashmir and Gilgit Baltistan as their parts. If Pakistan had not occupied these, then Afghanistan was in their immediate neighborhood. Pakistan came in between India and Afghanistan. Second thing is that there is not any better option than
Afghanistan to control Pakistan. Pakistan is also scared of India in this context. In case of the strong friendly ties between Afghanistan and India, Pakistan could be sandwiched.
Two war situation. It happens that situation is not favorable at eastern border and western as well. Until 2001, there was no record to deploy army on western border but now there are more than hundred and fifty thousand troops there who are engaged in the active war.
Out of six hundred thousand arm forces, one third is deployed on Afghan border. In fact the strike force is much less in number. Most of them are supporting staff. India knows all this and it has fixed Pakistan in problems. Pakistan has to deploy forces on Indian border also where India is continuously creating problems. There are deaths, killings, arms supply, drug trafficking and all sorts of problems. In their private meetings, army officials, they admit that they are facing a lot of problems. They had to rotate the troops after 4 to 6 months. They are sending them again and again. (Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai.
Personal communication on 5th September 2015)
Rustam Shah Mehmund opined that India’s track record regarding local and regional relations with its neighbor is very poor. It is more or less hegemonic. He asked that how can a country be a super power when its immediate neighbors are not happy
118 with it? They had the issue of supporting Tamil Tigers (Insurgents of Tamil speaking,
Jaffna, Srilanka who were supported by Indians) which they were doing for last twenty years. But despite of all this interference, India is a big country. Its economy during the period of Mr. Manmohan Singh was thriving but after that it is declining. Its population is currently 130m and in coming 5-6 years, it will cross China. It is a big market and a big democracy. It has better system as they have a proper institutionalize system of power transferring. If in Pakistan a person on the TV on some fine evening and the newscaster announces the takeover by army and overthrown of civil government in Pakistan, it will not a strange thing at all but this sort of movement is out of question in India. Anyone even cannot imagine it that one fine morning you will get up and read in Times of India, a widely circulated newspaper of India, that Indian Army has taken over the country that’s mean that in India, institutions have becomes so strong with the passage of time that you cannot imagine any martial law. It will, on the other hand, not a surprise if any news caster breaks this sort of news in Pakistan. They (Indians) have problems also for instance about 450 million Indians are living below poverty line. Delhi has been declared, the rape city of the world due to increased rape cases. They have lot of inequalities within their society. They are facing insurgencies in different provinces i.e. there is issue of
Naga land; Kashmir is a disturb area; there is Naxilite rebellion in 8-9 provinces of India; they had Khalistan issue but the Indian government had solved it very intelligently.
(Rustam Shah Mehmund; personal communication. 2/9/2015)
In journalist Haroon Rashid and defense analyst Arshaad Mehmood’s opinion,
India psyche is also different. One has to learn about it in order to understand Indian strategy. After almost one thousand years, they got the opportunity of self-rule. Initial 30
119 years, were era of slow progress as their growth rate was about 2 to 3 percent.
Afterwards, they improved and now are growing economy with very good rate of growth.
This made them mad and they start behaving illogically with neighbors, especially
Pakistan. They are dreaming of being super power. They have a lot of contradictions within their society. The whole nation behaves in a mad manner. Pakistan has more resources. There are contradictions but the actual problem is leadership. With good leadership, stability could be achieved. For this purpose, it is important to develop institutions. Even Prime Minister is an institution. Only then a country can be prosperous, powerful and super power. (Personal Communication; Haroon Rashid and Arshaad
Mehmood. 6/5/2015)
India and Afghanistan signed a strategic partnership agreement. It is first of its kind signed by Afghanistan and India. Earlier both the countries were very eager for implementation. Haroon Rashid and Arshaad Mehmood affirmed that on strategic partnership agreement, the implementation has slowed down. Ashraf Ghani government has slowed down the army training and other things. Due to this delay, Indians are worried. They consider this delay as the change of government from Karzai to Ashraf
Ghani might hva change the direction of its foreign policy. It is even evident from some recent statements of Ashraf Ghani. During his first visit to India, President Ashraf Ghani, in an interview with Indian newspaper “The Hindu"’, was asked about Pakistan’s support for terrorism. Mr. Ashraf Ghani replied that Pakistan is itself victim of terrorism and
Afghans are also victim therefore they have to put a joint effort to resolve it. (Personal communication; Haroon Rashid and Arshaad Mehmood. 6/5/2015).
This notion of Afghan leadership is alarming for Indians. However, Indians are
120 trying to build a soft image for themselves in Afghanistan. Journalist Haroon Rashid and defense analyst Arshaad Mehmood analyzed that India is building soft imageby presenting a philanthropic image of it. These are Indian known techniques. They cover their actual face with this sort of activities. Their real purpose is to counter Pakistan.
What kind of sympathy they have with Afghans; nothing at all but to counter Pakistan.
Earlier Pakistan was investing in the wrong direction but now Pakistan has changed the strategy. Things are getting better and will be much better with the passage of time. After
President Ashraf Ghani arrival, things are improving and if he sustain, good days will come. As far as Indian investment in Afghanistan is concerned, it is not for the sake of peace and stability in Afghanistan but India just wants to give tough time to Pakistan.
India has its interest in developmental projects as it wants access to the Central Asian
States. Stability in Afghanistan is linked with Pakistan. India has not the will or ability to bring stability into Afghanistan. Afghans need Pakistan for lasting peace in Afghanistan.
(Personal communication; Haroon Rashid and Arshaad Mehmood. 6/5/2015)
Rustam Shah Mehmund narrated that India is creating a soft image by doing numerous activities; Building power stations, parliament house, educational institutions,
Information technology training, professional scholarships, health facilities in Kabul, free treatment for Afghans in Indian hospitals, special flights for the poor patients, special scholarships for study of economics, medicines, engineering and information technology.
(Rustam Shah Mehmund; personal communication. 2/9/2015)
Salim Safi commented on Indo-Afghan links by narrating that with India,
Afghanistan has much more links. They are not limited to financial aid only but it has facilitated the inter country travelling as well. For instance, there are 19 flights from
121 Delhi for Kabul per week while there are just four flights per week from Pakistan to
Kabul. Infact, there is very wide communication gap between two countries. Pakistan’s important TV channels have bureaus in London, New York, Dubai but none of them has office in Afghanistan. The result is that whatever news you got, it is from other sources.
The second thing is that the visits of Pakistan’s government officials like President or
Prime Minister or of intelligentsia like journalists, school teachers will be of United
Kingdom and other countries of the world but very rare of Afghanistan, almost negligible. As he already told about flights, he added that there is another major difference that the flights from India are of Boeings (the planes with capacity of hundreds of passengers) while from Pakistan, they are small planes ATR which accommodate only few people. (Salim Safi; personal communication. 25-05-2015)
Salim Safi further added that the reason behind this might be that the number of visa issued to the Pakistani citizens is quiet limited. One can see long queues of visa applicants in front of Afghan embassy in Islamabad. Infact those who apply for visa of
Afghanistan are few. Mostly people cross border without formalities. It is estimated that about 40 to 50 thousand people cross Pak-Afghan border daily. (Salim Safi; personal communication. 25-05-2015) On the other hand, Indians don’t have this opportunity.
Ultimately they have to come by Air.
4.5.Pakistan’s Negative impression in Afghanistan; general perception of Afghans aboutPakistan;
122 Rustam Shah Mehmundsaid that the policies of Government of Pakistan are not having balance approach. Indians are investing to create soft image while the Pakistanis are doing opposite to it. They are not investing on Afghans but on certain favorites. Even from higher level, it was once demanded from the government of Afghanistan to give right to Pukhtoons and other things. This type of notion is disliked by Afghans as they may ask that who are you to command or order to do so. Pakistan should take care of
Pushtoon and Baluch and Karachiets who are suffering. It was Pakistan’s ex-President
General retired Pervaiz Musharaf who used to ask Afghans to give right to Pushtooon.
Afghans make fun of this statement as this is not the job of Pakistan to ask about so.
(Rustam Shah Mehmund; personal communication. 2/9/2015)
Rustam Shah Mehmund gave an example of undue interference by Pakistan which was not welcome by Afghans obviously. He narrated that just recently, four months ago, Pakistan’s national security advisor and foreign Affairs advisor to the Prime
Minister Mr. Sartaj Aziz, stated during his visit to America that Pakistan will not let
Taliban to form government again in Afghanistan. This statement was rebounded immediately and from where came the reaction, the President of Afghanistan. The statement issued by Afghan President House stated that it is the right of Afghan people to decide who will rule them not the job of Pakistan to decide or suggest. (Rustam Shah
Mehmund; personal communication. 2/9/2015)
Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai in a personal communication reveals that Pakistan and
Afghanistan’s relations are getting normal but not at the pace the media has propagated.
It is working slowly gradually and is incremental only. It will take time definitely.
However, the snow has melted. The death news of Mullah Omer has halted the peace
123 process. The Afghan government has got the opportunity to blame Pakistan as all the wanted are in Pakistani areas from where they are issuing statements and doing press conferences. Even Taliban have changed their Amir while sitting in Pakistani territory.
There is a term, “plausible deniability”. Pakistani always denied about Osama’s presence by insisting that Osama is not here. Haqani network is not here. Taliban leadership is not here. Mullah Omer is not here. Now the situation is that even the families of Mullah
Mansoor and Mullah Omer are giving interviews to international media. The brother of
Mullah Omer was issuing statements to media from Pakistani territory. Even the mutual and internal feuds of Taliban are appeared in media. All this has brought bad impression for Pakistan as their argument is now week. Afghan government rightly said that why don’t Pakistan authorities take action against all those who are present in their area.
When new Amir of Taliban Mullah Mansoor said that he is against talks, the Afghan government issued statement that it is open threat for Afghanistan. Mullah Mansoor is repeatedly saying this that he will go for Jihad against Afghan government as he is not in the favor of talks. (Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai. Personal communication on 5th September
2015)
Rustam Shah Mehmund was inquired about his perception regarding shift of policy due to regime change in Afghanistan. He replied that people here in Pakistan were very happy when Ashraf Ghani took over. He said that he knows Ashraf Ghani since long. Therefore, he told them that these celebrations are temporary because he knows the actual situation of Afghanistan. There is a lot of resentment against Pakistan in
Afghanistan. It will take time. He was hopeful as he said Inshallah (with the will of
Almighty Allah), things will get better but will definitely take time as a lot of work has to
124 be done in the right direction. Earlier, Pakistan was supporting Pushtoon groups. Two years back, Pakistan started supporting non-Pukhtoons, Uzbeks, Hazara and others. This policy again brought displeasure of Afghans. They again said that what Pukhtoon and what non-Pukhtoon. Pakistan should try to develop good relations with Afghans. There must not be any discrimination between Pukhtoon, Hazara, Uzbeks or Hindus, whatsoever. After all, all of them are Afghans. (Rustam Shah Mehmund; personal communication. 2/9/2015)
Rustam Shah Mehmund opines that situation was not like this always. During the
Russian invasion period, when a large number of Afghans took refuge in Pakistan, they were treated well without any discrimination. Rustam Shah Mehmund narrated an incident when he was Afghan Refugee Commissioner. He said that among Afghan refugees, there were Hindus from Afghanistan. He clearly told them that whether someone is Muslim or infidel, Shia or Sunni, Hindu or Muslim, all are refugees for
Pakistan. Therefore, Pakistan treated them on equal basis. When he was appointed ambassador to Afghanistan, a delegation of Afghans who were once refugee in Pakistan came to meet him. Non-Muslim citizens of Afghanistan were also among them. They said that they respect Pakistan a lot because it had treated them very well while they were refugees in their country. In gratitude, they wanted to invite Pakistan’s embassy staff for dinner. Rustam Shah Mehmund accepted their invitation and not only he but the whole
Pakistan Embassy staff in Kabul, attended the banquet hosted by Afghan Hindus and
Sikhs. (Rustam Shah Mehmund; personal communication. 2/9/2015)
Professor Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema is of the view that any bomb blast here in
Pakistan and the blame game gets started. This attitude is like of Indians. Indians have
125 great influence on Afghans through their intelligence Agency NDS. In fact, Mullah Fazul
Ullah is freely roaming in Afghanistan. Afghan authorities, army or intelligence network never admit but they are protecting and controlling Mullah Fazul Ullah. When asked to take action against him, they assure Pakistan in words only. No action against him at all.
Similarly, after sworn in as President, Ashraf Ghani showed great emotions for Pakistan.
Pakistan should have gone out of the way to support him because his position is precarious within Afghan hierarchy. Although he is Pukhtoon and want to have good relations with Pakistan but Americans have been working with Abdullah-Abdullah and
Tajiks. Things are changing now but it is a gradual process. It will take time. Now all the visiting army dignitaries from USA also visit Pakistan if they are in Kabul. If in the future any kind of agreement /reconciliation came out between Afghan government and
Taliban, the importance of Pakistan will definitely increase and improves. That’s why
Pakistan is trying to facilitate any reconciliation between Taliban and Afghan through peace process. (Professor Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema. Personal communication on 17-09-
2015)
4.6 Taliban; Their Origin:
Senator Shafqat Mehmood, while discussing Taliban said that Americans captured Afghanistan but impression in Afghanistan was and is that Taliban’s are under
Pakistan’s control and Taliban were supported by Pakistan. It is true that Pakistan provided refuge to Taliban and supported them as well but it also assured Americans that, it is with them. Due to its known dual policy regarding Afghanistan, when Mr. Hamid
Karzai came into power, he blamed Pakistan for every Taliban activity. He, therefore,
126 increased its terms with India and befriended with it. He was unable to reach on any compromise or re-conciliations on certain issues so preferred to join the foes of Pakistan i.e. India. They even signed a Strategic Co-operation Treaty. India invests there heavily and even offered them for training their forces. Indian presence became visible. Its result is that a wave of insurgency and terrorism started in Baluchistan and rest of Pakistan.
Senator Shafqat Mehmood further added that he don’t know exactly on this issue as he is in opposition but the government agencies are of the view that Indians are directly supporting those who are against Pakistan. They might be Baluchistan National Alliance
(BNA) or Maulvi Fazul Ullah of Swat. (Shafqat Mehmood; Personal communiation10-
06-2015)
The anti-government forces of Afghanistan, mainly Taliban, are creating trouble for both Afghanistan and Pakistan by promoting terrorist activities in their respective countries.
When asked about their origin and cause of spread of Taliban in the region,
Journalist Haroon Rashid and defense analyst Arshaad Mehmood elaborated the Muslim religious movements in Indo-Pakistan-Afghanistan with reference to the origin of
Taliban. They said that it is the fifth movement of the religious groups of Muslims of
South East Asia to gain power. First one was of Syed Ahmed Shaheed and Syed Ismail
Shaheed of 1832-1834. They travelled from Sindh to Balochistan, captured the Pukhtoon belt and went to Kandahar. The question is that while they were traveling and capturing the British India’s territory, why they were not restricted by British. Because its suit to them. At that time Sikhs were the ruler of Punjab. It was in favor of British that Sikhs and
Muslim fight with each other and Sikhs became weaker. Both will be weaker. British
127 foresee the result while these little minds were unable to apprehend the future and the consequences of this fight. Even British agents were in their quarters. British realized that these religious clerics were the victim of power intoxication. They had no planning but just started journey with the riffles while the canon was invented 300 years ago. Even in
1536, King Babar, the early Mughal dynasty king, used canon for the first time in India.
It was just a childish thing to rely on riffles but they were not in the senses. They were just like Taliban. The only difference was that they did not blasted bombs in the market.
They were failed. Pukhtoons were also fed up of them. Like now a days, Pukhtoons are fed up of Taliban. The city of Haripur was named after General Hari Singh who defeated
Syed Ahmed Shaheed. After 20 years, British defeated Sikhs and captured the whole region. (Personal communication; Haroon Rashid and Arshaad Mehmood. 6/5/2015)
Journalist Haroon Rashid and defense analyst Arshaad Mehmood told that the war of independence or mutiny as British called it, of 1857, was the second movement of the
Sunni religious group where Sunni sect Muslims sepoys attacked and captured Lucknow
Cantonment and killed thousands of Shiya sect Muslims. The third one was Reshmi
Romal Tehreek (Silk handkerchief movement). It was started by political wing of Ulema-
Deobund with the help of Communist Russia. Their major leader was Moulana Obaid
Ullah Sindhi. He was a converted Muslim. He was Communist and had links with Russia.
Many good people joined them but the major leaders were sentenced to death by British.
The fourth one was of Taliban in Afghanistan. In 1992, after the civil war, the group of religious seminaries students started the movement of Taliban. Till 1996, they captured the most of the Afghanistan and established their government in Kabul. They were ousted
128 in 2001 but gradually they are getting momentum. (Personal communication; Haroon
Rashid and Arshaad Mehmood. 6/5/2015)
Journalist Haroon Rashid and defense analyst Arshaad Mehmood describe that most recent fifth movement is of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Taliban in Pakistan are the followers of Afghan Taliban but involve in anti-Pakistan activities. They are supported by Indians. They created law and order situation in Swat and then in Federally
Administrative Tribal Area (FATA). They are called, Tehreek- e- Taliban Pakistan
(TTP). They are involved in blasts and suicide bomb attacks on innocent people. Some use Ismailia techniques (killing of targeted person) and some uses drugs too. Taliban also use drugs to brain wash. They use drugs when they tell the youngsters that they are going to the heavens. Students in religious seminaries are not criminal but Taliban brainwash them. However, people use movements in their own interest and exploit innocent people.
They quoted an example about a man, they met, and who was part of Reshmi Romal
Tehreek, in 1961. He was the best man, very nice and humble. He was misused in movement and later on abandoned. (Personal communication; Haroon Rashid and
Arshaad Mehmood. 6/5/2015)
While talking about Taliban, Rahim Ullah Yousafzai said that Pakistani Military elites are not in love with Taliban. They are of quiet opposite background. Military elites always make fun of Taliban and their simple religious appearance. Due to the strategic alliance, they are bound to help them. But their wish is to have some sort of power sharing of Taliban into Government. Because if a total Taliban’s Government took over in Kabul, they think that it will set precedent for Pakistani Taliban for setting
Government. More Taliban are penetrating inside Pakistan which is another dangerous
129 indicator. Earlier their attacks and blasts were only confined to Tribal areas and then
Khyber Pukhtoon Khawa. Now they have attacked other areas for instance Shikarpur, in the province of Sindh. It was not in any one’s remotest dream that the Taliban’s have some presence there, although, they are attacking Karachi. In fact,all of them are not the members of Tehreek Taliban Pakistan (TTP) but the local religious/ sectarian groups have joined them. Now at certain points, locals are in collaboration with TTP. Now the sphere of collaboration is that either the local militias group are providing them food, shelter, arm ammunition and participating in activities. All has magnified problem for
Pakistan. (Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai. Personal communication on 5th September 2015)
4.7 Water Management Problems with Afghanistan; Future Scenario:
While commenting on water management problems, Lt. General Asad Durrani said that with India, Pakistan has water disputes. If India is helping Afghans in their water management, then there is no harm in it. He emphasized that it is the right of
Afghans to seek help in the interest of their state. Pakistan must not get worried of almost
12 hydal power projects proposed by India on river Kabul. The downstream countries have their own rights. The water disputes are a common problem nowadays. Not only at international level but at local level, within provinces and within country, there are disputes. In Pakistan, there are numerous problems within provinces. He said that he is hopeful that when the situation in Afghanistan will get settled they (Pakistanis and
Afghans) themselves will sort out their problems just like India and Pakistan. Post- partition, Pakistan and India settled their water disputes with the help of third party negotiations and enter into an agreement called Indus Basin Water Treaty. The Indus
130 Basin Water Treaty was a huge document. It is so comprehensive that after more than half a century, it addresses all the issues aroused so far. Pakistan has complaints due to the incompetence of the dealing officials or its laziness as it lost all the cases. The third party neutral opinion is that there is little problem but magnified on a high scale. (Lt.
General Rtd. Asad Durrani:Personal Communication.9/9/2015)
Professor Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema elaborated the water issue with much detail. He said that on river Kabul, the twelve hydro projects, proposed by India are not simply for the purpose of improving Afghan economy. India will definitely tell them that they are helping Afghans. In fact the Pakistani share from river Kabul will be reduced in this way.
Chitral River which enter into Afghanistan from Pakistan and then re-enter in Pakistan could be a good opportunity. Pakistan can construct a dam there. In this way, they will be able to control Afghanistan. But unfortunately Pakistani authorities are unable to foresee.
Basha Dam is being constructed for several years and who knows that how much more time is required. Munda Dam was also a good project but it is still in process. These politicians are busy in fighting. Salma Dam in Heart, Afghanistan is a symbol of soft image, Indians are building in Afghanistan. They want to demonstrate that they are helping in restoring economy and development but their real purpose is to irritate
Pakistan in one way or another. (Professor Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema. Personal communication on 17-09-201)
When asked about other issues between Pakistan and Afghanistan, Rahim Ullah
Yousafzai affirmed that as far as other issues are concerned, water disputes are important issues. India has offered to Afghanistan for building 12 Hydro power projects on river
Kabul. But Afghanistan had not accepted it. In Pakistan’s Warsak Dam is on river Kabul.
131 All the water from Kabul River irrigates Nowshera or Peshawar valley. Later on, its water join river Indus which irrigates Punjab and Sindh. Therefore, it is a major source of water. Afghan finance minister visited Pakistan and offered for construction of Dam in
Afghanistan. Pakistan has turned down the proposal. However, Chinese agreed to build a dam in Afghanistan. It is a good thing because China is Pakistan’s friend and it will not exploit the opportunity against Pakistan. It is Hydro Power Project. The requirements of
Afghanistan are very limited so the surplus electricity will be available for Pakistan. That is also a favorable thing. There is a river Kunhar in Afghanistan’s Kunhar province where a dam is going to be built. It is a Hydro Power Irrigation project. India has constructed
Salma Dam in Herat on Helmand River. Iran has observations on Salma Dam. Iran also has water disputes with Afghanistan. At present, Pakistan has no issue but when
Afghanistan will get stability then these issues will arise. If the relations turn into hostile then obviously, Afghans will collaborate with Indians and problems will linger on.
(Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai. Personal communication on 5th September 2015)
4.8 Political perception about Afghanistan in Pakistan:
Salim Safi opines that as far as the perception about Afghanistan in Pakistan is concerned, when Taliban were in power, right from the Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to the common man, everybody was happy here. Pakistan only sees one aspect and that is peace in Afghanistan. While for a common man, the government of Taliban’s for
Afghans was just like as the government of Maulvi Fazul-Ullah for the people of Swat. .
(Salim Safi; personal communication. 25-05-2015)
132 Journalist Haroon Rashid and Defense analyst Arshaad Mehmood’s perception about Indo-Afghan relations is that Pakistan has three major concerns about Afghanistan; our foremost concern with Afghanistan is of security. Major issue is of Durand Line or
Pakhtoonistan. Our border is not defined. There must not be any movement of greater
Pakhtoonistan in the border areas. Secondly, Afghanistan should be a friendly country. Its land must not be used against Pakistan by any foreign force. Last but not the least is that there must not be any government in Afghanistan which can create law and order situation in Pakistan. It should not play in India’s hands against Pakistan at diplomatic, political or economic level. All these are our major interests and concerns.(Personal
Communication; Haroon Rashid and Arshaad Mehmood. 6/5/2015)
Defense analyst and expert of Indo-Afghan relations, Professor Pervaiz Iqbal
Cheema believes that Pakistan has three or four causes to have a friendly Afghanistan i.e.
a) That it is better to have friends on borders. If the relations remain hostile then
the attention will be diverted.
b) That Pakistan has a large number of Pukhtoon likewise Afghanistan also has
sizeable number of Pukhtoons. There are inter linkages and one cannot deny
it. For that reason, the relations must be normalized.
That since time immemorial, the Pawandas (seasonal migrants) use to travel from
Afghanistan to Pakistan in winters and back to Afghanistan in summer. Whenever the relations are hostile the cross border smuggling increases therefore transit trade is in the favor of both the countries. (Professor Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema. Personal communication on
17-09-2015)
133 Rustam Shah Mehmund affirmed that Pakistan should tell Indians that they have concerns in Afghanistan and China has concerns, Tajikistan has concern, Iran has concerns but Pakistan has stakes. It is a much more serious matter for Pakistan as it is sharing 2200 km long border with Afghanistan. Pakistan is hosting three million Afghan refugees for more than three decades. Over 150 thousands skilled workers of Pakistan are working in Afghanistan. It has ethnicity problems as well as historic issues. Afghanistan is a land locked country. Pakistan provides them access to the sea. In return, they provide them land route to Central Asian Republics. Both countries are inevitable for each other.
Pakistan has stakes. No country can get benefit of Afghanistan’s stability more than
Pakistan. Likewise, no country will be disturbed by Afghanistan’s instability more than
Pakistan. (Rustam Shah Mehmund; personal communication. 2/9/2015)
Shafqat Mehmood believes thatPakistan’swellinformed political elites are of the view that India and Afghanistan are two independent countries. They have options to have relations with each other of whatever nature. Pakistan’s only concern is that these two neighbors of Pakistan must not bring any harm to its interests. (Lt. General Rtd.
Asad Durrani: Personal Communication.9/9/2015)
While suggesting, the right course for foreign policy formation, Lt. General Rtd.
Asad Durrani said that there must be moderate policies in foreign relations. There will be no policies which lead to the point where there is no point of return. Government must maintain delicate balance in relations with other nations. Pakistan’s relations with
Afghanistan have a long history. During last four decades, many Afghans entered into
Pakistan as refugees. (Lt. General Rtd. Asad Durrani: Personal
Communication.9/9/2015)
134 Rustam Shah Mehmund is of the view that Pakistan has to play cards in proper directions.
It should maintain consistency in relations and must develop relations with a clear vision.
Pakistan must not support any particular group as it was supporting different groups at different periods. Pakistan and Afghanistan are inevitable for each other. India has no standing in this equation, although, it has its own importance for Afghans. Pakistan has its own durable contacts with Afghans in many aspects for instance they are; regarding
Central Asian States oil and gas reserves, regarding Investment, infrastructure, commodities, borders and so on. No other country has this much stakes with Afghanistan.
Therefore, Pakistan should not worry about the Afghanistan. However, it must keep an eye on India that it must not be allowed to create any sort of problem for Pakistan.
Pakistan has no objection regarding Indo-Afghan relations but they must not continue on the cost of Pakistan. Sky is the limit. Pakistan should take Indians in confidence and should clearly tell them that these are our goals, these are our objectives in Afghanistan and this is our strategy. Then let Afghans to speak out about their vision, objectives and goals. It will be mutually beneficial for both. He said that he think that if the political leaders of Pakistan were informed and enlightened leadership with future vision, they must have done it, as there is no harm in doing so. Whatever disputes Pakistan has with
India; let them, but why Pakistan should make Afghanistan a battle field for India’s proxy war. Why should Pakistan do so at the expense of poor Afghans? They are already suffering a lot. (Rustam Shah Mehmund; personal communication. 2/9/2015)
Salim Safi opines that the relations between two countries, Pakistan and
Afghanistan are not like of brothers but as of cousins. Pakistan is the elder one and
Afghanistan is the younger one. In Pukhtoon society, the cousins are called Tarboor. It is
135 a relationship where the comparatively elder or prosperous has to behave in a mature manner. He must act as decent one. Because that who is lesser privileged or short of age will always complain and will create trouble but the elder one has the entire obligation to show patience and control his emotions. Interestingly whatever feud, they have with each other at home, the enemy of one is the enemy of other. They are united on the front against any outside foe. That’s why in tribal areas, there is a law of collective responsibility. This law says that when one person commits a crime, not only he but his paternal cousin will also be held responsible for this. His cousin’s house and shops will also demolish along with his properties by the law enforcement agencies. (Salim Safi; personal communication. 25-05-2015)
Salim Safi further added that same is the case of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Although the relation remain hostile throughout but during 1965 war, when India invaded
Pakistan, it was a golden opportunity for Afghanistan, keeping in mind the nature of relations. Contrarily, Afghanistan assured Pakistan that they will not interfere and the
Pak-Afghan border will be safe. Even they asked for the requirements of Pakistan at that hour of need in order to support Pakistan against India. Same was the situation in 1971.
After Mumbai attack, when the tension between Pakistan and India rise, Afghanistan was with Pakistan. Therefore, the concept of Tarboor explains the nature of Pak-Afghan relations, very well. That’s why Pakistan should stop worrying about Afghanistan, because, it will never fight against Pakistan any full-fledged war. (Salim Safi; personal communication. 25-05-2015)
While talking about the shift of policy from pro-India to pro-Afghan, Salim Safi view is that the change/shift of Afghan policy is not sudden but even during election
136 campaign when Dr. Abdullah stand was strict and somewhat hostile towards Pakistan,
Mr. Ashraf Ghani was friendlier towards Pakistan. Through their vote, the people of
Afghanistan accepted and opted pro-Pakistan person and selected him in majority.
Another reason for the shift of policy is during last decade due to the double games,
Afghanistan, America and Pakistan had suffered a lot. This time, long before elections, both the potential candidates had committed with officials from America and Pakistan certain sureties. However, Pakistan is again not fulfilling those commitments and therefore situation is again deteriorating. (Salim Safi; personal communication. 25-05-
2015)
Khalid Mehmood opines that there are non-state actors who are sabotaging the relationship of two countries but it is important to restore the trust. There should be no pockets from where the non- state actors, while hiding, can play this sort of dirty game.
There should be better border arrangement and it must be improved. Apart from controlling the insurgents, better border managements will help to stop non-state actors to have free hand for manipulation of the relations. Meanwhile economic commercial ties are also important. Pakistan Afghanistan intelligence sharing must be improved. It should not only conducive but there should be enhancing relations and change in the mindset. It is somewhat visible on Afghanistan side. It does not mean that India’s relations with
Afghanistan have evaporated. They are there but now Pakistan is demanding from
Afghanistan that no country should be allowed to use Afghan soil against Pakistan. This message is well understood at both sides. (Khalid Mehmood; personal communication.6/9/2015)
137 Salim Safi suggested that it is better to have good relations with Afghanistan on solid grounds instead of manipulating any third country. This will be the best course to adopt. India is itself present on Pakistan’s border. Iran is at the other side. With Iran,
India has an important strategic partnership. Infact India is present in Iran more visibly.
How can Pakistan handle the Indian influence in different countries? The better solution is to mend own ways and revise their policies regarding Afghanistan. (Salim Safi; personal communication. 25-05-2015)
4.9 End Game and American’s plans for aftermath:
Rustam Shah Mehmund elaborated the end game. He said that it is a term being coined to depict the future with-drawl plan of American forces from Afghanistan. He said that Americans are planning to leave. But they are of the view that they will keep about
90000-95000 troops there for peace keeping. They will also keep about five to six thousands contract security forces in Afghanistan. Americans will also keep the control of five military bases at present in their hands. Here arises a question that if they are planning to keep nine military bases operational by Americans themselves then what will be the future scenario. These bases are loaded with drones, re-consonance planes, jets, fighter planes, CIA large contingents and so on. Moreover, now Americans have amended their with-drawn plan by postponing it from 2014 to 2016. In fact, 2016 is the last year of President Barak Obama in his office. If the situation in 2016 will indicate that the Taliban are advancing and the Afghan National Force’s (ANF) personals are deserting in bulks and the danger of Taliban increases, then definitely Obama administration will again postpone the withdrawn plan. American President Barack
Obama will definitely not let a legacy to leave behind. As he was conscious about the
138 Iran’s nuclear issue, he made an historical move by signing an agreement with Iran. His party is also pressurizing him not to create any problem for the Democratic Party candidate. They want to settle the Afghan issue in order to cover their defeat in Iraq. The
Democrats will propagate these two issues as their achievements in order to defeat
Republicans. (Rustam Shah Mehmund; personal communication. 2/9/2015)
While discussing aftermathof “Endgame in Afghanistan”, Salim Safi narrated that
Pakistan is now pursuing Americans not to leave Afghanistan without any concrete arrangement as they did earlier in 1988-89 because it will definitely followed by mass destruction. If, Afghan warring groups and regional stake holders do not agree on any future adjustment then Pakistan will suffer again, because America will left and Pakistan have to face the consequences. Pakistan’s political parties and government both have neither the ability nor the vision; therefore, there are visible chances of mishandling the situation. The problem has been aggravated because; political government has no say regarding foreign policy matters as it is in the hands of Army. The active role being played by Pakistan Army chief is not a good thing. This is the duty of the political government not of Army chief to visit foreign countries and meet with dignitaries. .
(Salim Safi; personal communication. 25-05-2015)
Rustam Shah Mehmund opined that if the process of peace talks with Taliban results in any sort of re-conciliation between Afghan government and Taliban, then it will be an achievement for Americans. If Taliban stop resistance and became a shareholder in main stream politics and government in Afghanistan then, American government will be able to tell their people about their achievement. They will tell them that they are successful as they have brought a major warrior group into main stream. After this,
139 transition they will be able to leave the country. Obviously, they will relinquish the control of non-US-controlled army bases and will hand over them to Afghan National
Army. Then Obama will be able to show his people that how they (Americans) have achieved transition and how Taliban’s have merged into politics and left militancy and became part of administrative process. If the situation is reverse then the Americans will remain here for a long time. (Rustam Shah Mehmund; personal communication.
2/9/2015)
Khalid Mehmood discussed the possible role of India in end game and post with drawl. At the time of with drawl when the number of troops will soon reduce, the vacuum will be created in Afghanistan. Competition between different powers will be started in
Afghanistan. Among them are Iran, Russia, China, and Central Asian States along with
Pakistan and India. Pakistan has to carefully observe that how Afghanistan develop relation with all these countries because, in the past, during Soviet occupation, India was on the other side. After Russian withdrawal, civil war broke out in Afghanistan and then came Taliban. During all these different phases of Afghanistan history, India tried to regain its influence back in Afghanistan. It affects Pakistan, given their relationship.
There is different kind of relationship India and Afghanistan can maintain; in defense field, political field, economic field and cultural field. If India wants to have commercial ties with Afghanistan especially in reconstruction and rebuilding Afghanistan, Pakistan has no objection. When the economic relationship of India and Afghanistan turns into strategic partnership, it is definitely a matter of concern for Pakistan. It is evident in the past that India’s main objective remains to use its economic influence to exert pressure on
Afghanistan. (Khalid Mehmood; personal communication.6/9/2015)
140 Rustam shah Mehmund said that whenever he talks to Americans, he told them that they have made hasty decisions. These Taliban could be their strategic partners viz-a- viz China, viz-a-viz Russia and viz-a-viz Central Asia but they (American) have missed the golden opportunity. In fact, Americans just before 9/11 were about to get contracts for certain development projects in Afghanistan. For instance, the oil or Gas pipeline project in which gas was transported from Turkmenistan in which Zalmay Khalilzad, the UN special representative in Afghanistan was also a partner. They had lost that opportunity.
They killed Afghans and destroyed their land. Now Americans are unable to solve the problems. They want to leave Afghanistan but they don’ know how. They can’t get anything out of it. Their intellectuals call it a nameless, aimless and needless war and asked that what they got out of this war as they humiliated people destroyed the already devastated country, Institutions were destroyed, infrastructure was demolished, and more refugees were out of their country. So nothing is gained. The historian Toynbee once said that the lesson that mankind has learnt from history is that it has learnt no lesson.
(Rustam Shah Mehmund; personal communication. 2/9/2015)
Rustam Shah Mehmund reminded that Americans have lost almost 18000 lives in
Vietnam. Many million dollars were wasted but Vietnam joined the block, which it was going to join. It is now in Communist Block. Interestingly, now America is helping
Vietnam against China as nothing is permanent in politics. Old foes can be turn into friends of each other. (Rustam Shah Mehmund; personal communication. 2/9/2016)
Shafqat Mehmood elaborated the Americans decision of with drawl from
Afghanistan as it was a mistake on the part of American side. He is of the view that they have reduced their power by announcing their withdrawal date in advance. It is very
141 simple that if a person intends to leave and announce its intention, how it can control the stake holders. They had just loosened their powers and control. The American aspiration from Pakistan was what Pakistan and Afghanistan have from each other. Americans want that Pakistan should control Taliban and play a major role. However, now Afghans and up to certain extent, Americans are disappointed from Pakistan. In this scenario, India will definitely take advantage because Indians present government is against Pakistan.
India is not ready to have any sort of reconciliation with Pakistan at the moment.
Therefore, there are most probably chances of turning of relationship of Pakistan and
India into hostility of the relations. (Shafqat Mehmood; Personal communiation10-06-
2015)
According to Rustam Shah Mehmund Americans have several objectives in Afghanistan.
The recent regime change is the major part of plan. The major and foremost are;
a) The containment of China policy.
b) To use Afghanistan as a base camp in order to utilize the mineral oil or gas
resources of Central Asian Republics.
c) To increase the pressure on Iran regarding nuclear issue. So that Iran must realize
that Americans are at its borders.
d) Most important is to have a threatening eye on Pakistan’s atomic programme.
In this way, they can make Pakistan realize that it can’t cross certain threshold. If they try to cross, Americans are on the borders. They can punish and react as they did to
Osama. Pakistan, in that case can’t do anything. (Rustam shah Mehmund; personal communication. 2/9/201)
142 Rahim Ullah Yousafzai described the best available and possible solution for Taliban is the reconciliation process. He said that Pakistan wants to bring Taliban to power sharing and they should be the part of political main stream. War should be ended and Taliban should surrender. Afghanistan should be stabilized. But unfortunately all these are aspirations and dreams. Pakistan’s government wishes that these aspirations should be fulfilled. There must be some sort of reconciliation. As in Baluchistan, where nationalist
Baluch’s were offered 5 lacks to 15 lacks for surrendering and then they will be granted immunity. It is a good scheme. Although Army is claiming that about 500 have returned from Ferrari camps (Fugitive Camps of Militants). They are now part of political main stream. At least they were provided a way out. Problem is that all those who are part of these militant organizations are not willing partners. Some might be volunteers but great possibility is that they might be forced by individuals or circumstances to join them but at some later stage, due to the policies of these groups or other reason, decided to leave the group. Therefore, this offer, with handsome amount, at least gives them a way out with finical support for their adjustment in normal life. They can opt for business or education.
Therefore, there might be good Taliban and bad Taliban. So it must be the part of strategy to give amnesty. One cannot fight with everyone for a long period. The militants have to be classified and divided like USA is doing to have table talks with Taliban’s in Qatar and killing some in drones’ attacks back in Afghanistan. Pakistan has not given them the way out. It must be the strategy to rehabilitate them or give them amnesty. (Rahim Ullah
Yousaf Zai. Personal communication on 5th September 2015)
Shafqat Mehmood is of the view that right now, after years of unrest and war in the region, Pakistan wants some kind of settlement for Taliban’s in Afghan government.
143 They definitely do not want pure Taliban’s government. They are sincerely trying to help them out. But their power in Afghanistan is not so strong likewise the Afghan government has no control over the areas where Mullah Fazul- Ullah and other terrorist took refuge. So there are problems at both sides. There are aspirations and dissatisfaction at both sides.(Shafqat Mehmood; Personal communication.10/06/2015)
Khalid Mehmood is of the view that there should be close co-operation among all the immediate neighbors of Afghanistan on peace process. Pakistan should not worry about the role of India in future setup in Afghanistan. If Pakistan- India relations are good then the things will be normal otherwise each move of India in Afghanistan and vice- versa will be considered hostile and aggressive move on other country’s behalf. Recent developments in India have disturbed the situation. India government is particularly hostile towards Pakistan. They want to meet terrorism with terrorism which is not a good thing. (Khalid Mehmood; personal communication.6/9/2015)
Professor Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema said that Afghanistan has realized the importance of Pakistan. Especially during Taliban- Afghan government negotiations process where
Pakistan played a role of facilitator. The news of Mullah Omar death halted the peace talk’s process. During that period, Indians again tried to exploit the situation in their favor. Certain people in Afghan government are pro-Indians for instance Dr. Abdullah, the Chief Executive, and he will try his level best to take the government towards India, instead of Pakistan. (Professor Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema. Personal communication on 17-09-
2015)
Haroon Rashid and Arshaad Mehmood told that in a recent study by Jinnah
Institute “the end game; the perception of Pakistan’spolitical elites”, the perception of
144 Pakistan’s political elite was discussed. It is clearly mentioned in it that Pakistan’s politicians respect the sovereignty and liberty of people of Afghanistan. Afghans have the right to decide their future. (Personal communication; Haroon Rashid and Arshaad
Mehmood. 6/5/2015)
About peace process going on in Pakistan between Afghan Taliban and Afghan government, Salim Sami opines that peace talks are not going to reap any fruit. Salim
Safi was not the part of peace talk committee as he told that he regretted but he was in the favor of peace talk with Pakistani Taliban initiated by Prime Minister Mr. Nawaz Sharif in early 2014. (Salim Safi; personal communication. 25-05-2015)
While commenting on peace process and role of Taliban, Khalid Mehmood narrated that now Americans and Afghans both have realized the importance of Taliban and have open up the doors for them through negotiations and peace talks. Pakistan can play a supportive role to persuade Taliban to come to the negotiating table. Pakistan has been particularly doing this role. However, he was of the view that the influence of
Pakistan on Taliban was over estimated as they have not always listened to Pakistan.
Therefore, the community of nations must not put the responsibility of failure of these talks on Pakistan. Pakistan should try its level best. Pakistan can force them to sit on negotiating table. To get the final solution out of it is the responsibility of Afghan government not of Pakistan as they are the stake holders not Pakistan. Rather it should not let any other country to sabotage these talks. (Khalid Mehmood; personal communication.6/9/2015)
Salim Safi opines that the relations between two countries, Pakistan and Afghanistan are not like of brothers but as of cousins. Pakistan is the elder one and Afghanistan is the
145 younger one. In Pukhtoon society, the cousins are called Tarboor. It is a relationship where the comparatively elder or prosperous has to behave in a mature manner . He must act as decent one. Because that who is lesser privileged or short of age will always complain and will create trouble but the elder one has the entire obligation to show patience and control his emotions. Interestingly whatever feud, they have with each other at home, the enemy of one is the enemy of other. They are united on the front against any outside foe. That’s why in tribal areas, there is a law of collective responsibility. This law says that when one person commits a crime, not only he but his paternal cousin will also be held responsible for this. His cousin’s house and shops will also demolish along with his properties by the law enforcement agencies. (Salim Safi; personal communication.
25-05-2015)
Salim Safi further added that same is the case of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Although the relation remain hostile throughout but during 1965 war, when India invaded
Pakistan, it was a golden opportunity for Afghanistan, keeping in mind the nature of relations. Contrarily, Afghanistan assured Pakistan that they will not interfere and the
Pak-Afghan border will be safe. Even they asked for the requirements of Pakistan at that hour of need in order to support Pakistan against India. Same was the situation in 1971.
After Mumbai attack, when the tension between Pakistan and India rise, Afghanistan was with Pakistan. Therefore, the concept of Tarboor explains the nature of Pak-Afghan relations, very well. That’s why Pakistan should stop worrying about Afghanistan, because, it will never fight against Pakistan any full-fledged war. (Salim Safi; personal communication. 25-05-2015)
146 While talking about the shift of policy from pro-India to pro-Afghan, Salim Safi view is that the change/shift of Afghan policy is not sudden but even during election campaign when Dr. Abdullah stand was strict and somewhat hostile towards Pakistan,
Mr. Ashraf Ghani was friendlier towards Pakistan. Through their vote, the people of
Afghanistan accepted and opted pro-Pakistan person and selected him in majority.
Another reason for the shift of policy is during last decade due to the double games,
Afghanistan, America and Pakistan had suffered a lot. This time, long before elections, both the potential candidates had committed with officials from America and Pakistan certain sureties. However, Pakistan is again not fulfilling those commitments and therefore situation is again deteriorating. (Salim Safi; personal communication. 25-05-
2015)
Khalid Mehmood opines that there are non-state actors who are sabotaging the relationship of two countries but it is important to restore the trust. There should be no pockets from where the non- state actors, while hiding, can play this sort of dirty game.
There should be better border arrangement and it must be improved. Apart from controlling the insurgents, better border managements will help to stop non-state actors to have free hand for manipulation of the relations. Meanwhile economic commercial ties are also important. Pakistan Afghanistan intelligence sharing must be improved. It should not only conducive but there should be enhancing relations and change in the mindset. It is somewhat visible on Afghanistan side. It does not mean that India’s relations with
Afghanistan have evaporated. They are there but now Pakistan is demanding from
Afghanistan that no country should be allowed to use Afghan soil against Pakistan. This
147 message is well understood at both sides. (Khalid Mehmood; personal communication.6/9/2015)
Salim Safi suggested that it is better to have good relations with Afghanistan on solid grounds instead of manipulating any third country. This will be the best course to adopt. India is itself present on Pakistan’s border. Iran is at the other side. With Iran,
India has an important strategic partnership. Infact India is present in Iran more visibly.
How can Pakistan handle the Indian influence in different countries? The better solution is to mend own ways and revise their policies regarding Afghanistan. (Salim Safi; personal communication. 25-05-2015)
Rustam Shah Mehmund is of the view that due to the strategic location of Afghanistan, outside powers always granted gracious aids to the country. Surrounded by China,
Russia, Iran and Indian sub- continent, Afghanistan has a special place in the list of the countries of the world. They are at crossroads of civilization. It was always and is now the center of attention of the world. The presence of minerals is relatively new phenomena. The exploration of oil and gas are in process by China, Turkey, Germany and other countries. Turkey is active rather very active in Afghanistan. Turkmen and
Uzbek associate themselves with Turkey as they were earlier the parts of Turkey. Tajik called themselves of Tajikistan origin. People of those nationalities, associate themselves with the same ethnic background people of Central Asian Republics States. (Rustam
Shah Mehmund; personal communication. 2/9/2016)
Salim Safi gave the example of China and said that in Pakistan, China has invested less. It never interferes or dictates to Pakistan. Therefore, Pakistani nation unanimously agrees on the friendship with China. So his recommendation was that the
148 government of Pakistan should adopt the Chinese policy and must leave the American policy. Infact like India, Pakistan was having conflicts with Afghanistan since very beginning for instance of Pakhtoonistan, Durand line and numerous others. Now a generation has been born, raised and almost getting old while hearing this propaganda of conflicts between these two countries. Same is the situation in Pakistan. Elite in Pakistan which is called establishment here and elite of Afghanistan who are political leaders have this perception. The common Afghan and Pakistani have no problem. Ordinary Afghan citizens and Pakistani traders are frequent visitors of each other’s country. They are comfortable and there is no hindrance in their activities. The historical background, communication gap and Pakistan’s attitude which is not like Chinese but of Americans, all these factors are forming a negative perception for each other despite of numerous commonalities. (Salim Safi; personal communication. 25-05-2015)
Salim Safi is of the view that historically when Pakistan influence in Afghanistan increased, Pakistan used it against India and India did the same. It is infact a match (race) between two countries in order to increase their influence. Pakistan has many options in
Afghanistan to increase its influence for instance millions of Afghan refugees are settled in Pakistan. They are tool in Pakistan’s hands as they can use them in their favor.
Afghans are economically dependent on Pakistan. Through economic factor, Pakistan can use them or influence them. The influence of Pakistan’s intelligence agencies is much more than Indians within Afghanistan. Population of Afghanistan and Pakistan shares common religion and culture. These commonalities provide more influence. (Salim Safi; personal communication. 25-05-2015)
149 On the other hand, Salim Safi further added, that India does not have this
leverage. Neither have they shared a common border with Afghanistan nor the other
earlier mentioned points. They have, therefore, limited choices. Either, they will show
their presence through economic activities or by investing there. The Indians have to
oblige them thorough money. They are doing the same. It has historical perspective also.
Salim Safi explained his point by giving an example. He said that since independence of
India and Pakistan, Pakistan claims that India has occupied Kashmir which is the integral
part of Pakistan. On the other hand Pakistan and Afghanistan remain hostile because
Afghanistan had claim over a major part of Pakistan as their territory. Therefore, due to
area/border disputes with Pakistan, they are natural allies. Moreover, during the Russian-
Afghan war period, despite its claim of non-alignment, India was in Russian camp. When
the Russian proxies were ruling Afghanistan, Indians were enjoying good relations with
them.(Salim Safi; personal communication. 25-05-2015)
4.10 Realistic approach in Foreign Policy Formation:
Rustam Shah Mehmund is of the view that Pakistan should adopt realistic approach. It should stick to its stand that Afghan soil must not be used against Pakistan. Afterwards, any kind of investment, any country made in Afghanistan is not its business. Pakistan should revise its policies regarding transit trade. It must not only think about Indians, it should think about Afghans as well. Afghans get annoyed that Pakistan didn’t let them trade with Indians. Afghanistan also feels difficulty in approaching India through
Chahbahar. (Rustam Shah Mehmund; personal communication. 2/9/2016)
150 Regarding Taliban, Senator Shafqat Mehmood is of the view that when the
Taliban’s movement was started, it was a spontaneous movement and was not directed by
Pakistan. It was started because of the internal situation of Afghanistan. Gradually, this movement gained momentum and spread in all over of Afghanistan. Initially, Pakistan was confused about this movement and was unable to understand it. It turns into a successful movement within no time. However, with the passage of time, Taliban captured most of Afghanistan along with Kabul, the capital city of Afghanistan. Only then Pakistan started its support for Taliban. Saudi Arabia and Pakistan were the two countries of the world which had recognized the government of Taliban in Afghanistan.
Again, by doing so, Pakistan became a party in the internal rivalries of Afghanistan. As
Taliban were Pukhtoon and Pakistan was supporting them, indirectly, it was creating resentment in non-Pukhtoons quarters. Although, Taliban brought certain stability in
Afghanistan but their attitude was brutal. As Pakistan was supporting them, other groups bracket Pakistan with Taliban and became the opponents. Pakistan, in order to support
Taliban, stops helping /supporting groups which it was supporting /favoring earlier. It also increased the number of foes for Pakistan. Northern Alliance and Punjsheris Ahmad
Shah Masood and Abdul Rasheed Dostum, all were against Pakistan.(Shafqat Mehmood;
Personal communiation10-06-2015)
Salim Safi is of the view that by supporting Taliban, Pakistan lost all its friends in
Mujahedeen circles. Taliban’s were opposed by Mujahedeen groups. Among them were
Dr. Abdullah ‘Abdullah, Ahmed Shah Masood, Rasheed Dostum and Burhan-ud-Din
Rabbani. Even Gul-Badin Hikmatyar was also opposing Pakistan. All of the major
Afghan ex- Mujahedeen leaders joined Northern Alliance. At that time Iran, India and
151 Central Asian States were supporting them. (Salim Safi; personal communication. 25-05-
2015)
While commenting on the event of 9/11 and its consequences, Senator Shafqat
Mehmood said that Pakistan had made non-Pukhtoons its opponents by supporting
Taliban factions. In these circumstance 9/11 happened. It brought a difficult situation for
Pakistan. United States of America (USA) was demanding that Pakistan should oppose
Taliban. Earlier America was the supporter of Taliban. Therefore, Pakistan became the opponents of Taliban and the supporters of USA. But actually Pakistan was playing double game and having double policy. Pakistanis were supporting USA and were in favor of Taliban as well. (Shafqat Mehmood; Personal communiation10-06-2015)
This policy was not liked by Americans. Therefore, Pakistan should formulate its policies in balance and futuristic way
Conclusion
This chapter deals with the perception of Pakistan’s political elites regarding
Indo-Afghan relations and its implication for Pakistan in post 9/11 era. The political and social implication of these relations was discussed in detail.
Pakistan’s political elites discussed the role of Hamid Karzai and Ashraf Ghani in
Indo-Afghan relations. It also deals with Pakistan’s image in Afghanistan, Indian’s soft image, origin of Taliban, impact of regime change on Afghanistan policy towards
Pakistan and impactof Indian policy after regime change in India are discussed in detail.
152 Pakistan’s political elites only think of a balnce approach towards foreign policy formation in order to solve the Afghan crisis as a good neighbor. Ultimately wrong or right policies of Pakistan will bring long lasting impacts on Pakistan.
153 Chapter – 5
Perception of Pakistan’s Political Elites Regarding Security and Economic Implications of Indo-Afghan Relations for Pakistan in Post 9/11 Era
In the previous chapter, the perception of Pakistan’s political elites regarding political and social implication of Indo-Afghan relations was discussed in detail. But the political and social aspects only do not cover all the spheres of relations. Economic and security aspects of these relations are equally important. As economic and security interests are closely connected and interdependent, therefore, this chapter will deal with these factors. It will depict the perception of Pakistan’s political elites regarding economic and security implication of indo-Afghan relations for Pakistan.
The geographic location of present day Afghanistan has a very special significance among the countries of the world. As the historian Toynbee noted that
Afghanistan is at the crossroads of east and west (Lt. General Rtd. Asad
Durrani:Personal Communication.9/9/2015). Due to its geographical location, its strategic as well as economic value is enhanced significantly. Former super powers
USSR and USA were engaged in cold war for decades in the after Second World War era. The containment policy of USA resulted in increased aid and defense activities within USSR adjacent areas. On the other hand USSR developed good relations and influence in the region. Signing of friendship treaties with Afghanistan and India was alarming for USA. The balance of power was shifting towards USSR. The countries in this region, due to their geographical location got benefits in term of developmental aid.
After the dismemberment of USSR and end of cold war era, the newly established
Central Asian States with rich energy resources were new attraction for major powers of the world. Again it increased the significance of the countries of the region in term of security and economics. These two factors were discussed with Pakistan’s political elites.
Their perceptions are presented in the following paras under following headings.
5.1 Stated and unstated objective of India in Afghanistan:
While discussing the reason for India’s increasing interest in Afghanistan,
Professor Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema was of the opinion that there are stated and unstated objective of India in Afghanistan. In his opinion, those which are stated are; they are helping Afghans to build their economy. India being a big country is helping a country whose economy is shattered, which is war torn. It is reconstructing the poor shattered country and helping it in development. Unstated objective is to foot hold in
Afghanistan and use it against Pakistan. Indians will not admit it but it is the fact. So their stated objective in Afghanistan is that a big brother is helping a younger brother. But unfortunately Pakistan’s interpretation is of this perception of Afghanistan’s stand is quite contrary. For instance, it is now confirmed that Indians are interfering in
Baluchistan. Indian President Narendra Modi, during his state visit to Bangladesh confessed that they helped Bengalis in their independence and breakage of Pakistan. It is against stated objective of UN charter, which clearly says that no country can contribute
159 into the breakage of any country. The Indian Prime Minister Mrs. Indra Gandhi also said once that after the creation of independent Bangladesh, the two nation theory has sunken into Bay of Bengal. (Professor Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema. Personal communication on 17-09-
2015)
Rahim Ullah Yousafzai elaborated Indian ambitions in Afghanistan and said that what
India did in Afghanistan is that it has made it a battle field for Pakistan. They had invested $2.5 billion while Pakistan had given $5oo millions. It is a big country. It has many resources but still the investments are too much. He said that whenever they met with Indians during international conferences, they ask them; you people are not very generous, why you have given this huge amount to Afghans. The only Hindu kingdom in the world, Nepal, was not showered with this generosity. Bangladesh which was created by Indians was not blessed in this way. They (Indians) are granting aid to Bhutan which is totally under their control. How is it possible that they are so kind to Afghans? An
Indian deputy naval commander, Rear Admiral Nair once replied very proudly that their foreign reserves are $ 83.3 billion. They have a lot of money. If they want to throw, they will throw. Their generosity for Afghanistan is not without reason. The reason behind it is that India wants to control Pakistan through its presence in Afghanistan. (Rahim Ullah
Yousaf Zai. Personal communication on 5th September 2015)
Rustam Shah Mehmund is of the opinion that Afghanistan is rich in minerals. According to the geological survey of America, Afghanistan has mineral reserves of cobalt, gold, copper, industrial mineral helium and others. The estimated worth of these reserves is one trillion dollar. India has started iron excavation project in Hajigak, Afghanistan. China
160 has started project in Ainak for copper ore mining. Due to the poor security situation in
Logar province, Chinese have stopped working. But Chinese are also investing in oil and gas exploration in Afghanistan because Afghanistan has oil and gas reserves in abundance. India has invested in infrastructure to facilitate its mining projects. But they are also waiting for stability in the country. In fact a comprehensive satellite survey is required for proper exploration activities. Mining is a huge investment activity. Chinese have already invested three billion dollars in Ainak copper mines. It is in fact one of the largest project of the world in mining sector. However, the work has been stopped.
Chinese have not yet got anything out of it. They are now worried and whenever meet with Pakistani informative persons, ask about the security situation. It is stated as per
Rustam that he told them to wait. (Rustam shah Mehmund; personal communication.
2/9/2015)
Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai opines that by virtue of Indian developmental role, it enjoys some influence in Afghanistan. It did the development work in Afghanistan extra ordinarily.To the extent that this work was not done in India.. They have electrified
Kabul after years of darkness. From Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, the electricity was brought into Kabul. They have crossed the Hindu Kush mountain range and Salang pass and Salang highway. The Afghan children who are studying in schools in Afghanistan are being provided with ‘made in India’ biscuits during lunch break. A hydro-irrigation dam
Salma is built by India. Due to the security reasons the project was delayed but now it is about to complete. India has constructed a huge building for Parliament in Kabul. It is nowadays being furnished and maintained by India. It is expected that Prime Minister
Mr. Narendra Modi will visit Afghanistan in the early months of 2016 in order to
161 inaugurate and handing over the building(The building has been handed over to
Afghanistan in December 2015 and Indian Prime minister Narendra Modi had inaugurated it). It is a smart move. This building will become symbol of democracy as well as projection of India. Physical presence is in fact a permanent propaganda. (Rahim
Ullah Yousaf Zai. Personal communication on 5th September 2015)
Rahim Ullah Yousafzai further added that from the period 1992 to 1996, during civil war in Afghanistan, Indra Gandhi Children Hospital was the only functional hospital in the city of Kabul. When Afghan children got treatment there and became healthy, obviously, they will remember and mention India with gratitude and in good words. (Rahim Ullah
Yousaf Zai. Personal communication on 5th September 2015)
Haroon Rashid and Arshaad Mehmood opine that they can foresee that in coming
6-7 months, Pak-India relations will be more hostile. Due to the Americans desire,
Pakistan has committed that India can transport Afghan goods to India via Pakistan. But
Pakistan has not allowed Indians to send their goods to Afghanistan. Therefore, the situation is that Indian trucks, loaded with Afghan goods, travel through Pakistan, cross
Wahga border, off load goods and come back without anything. India has no access to
Afghan Market. Then same route for Central Asian states is not available to India. It is clear to Indians that they cannot use Karachi, Gawadar or Wahga for transportation of its goods. Only available option is Chahbahar which was constructed by Indians in Iran.
They have connected it with a ring road, Delaram- Zaranj high way. The advantage of
Chahbahar is that India already has trade relations with Iran. Therefore, in order to develop its economic relations with Afghanistan, it can use Iran. Through this, they can send their goods to Central Asia. India has invested in road network and infrastructure.
162 They had invested $ 2billion so far which made them one of the big donor country in
Afghanistan (Personal communication; Haroon Rashid and Arshaad Mehmood. 6/5/2015)
While commenting on India’s economic interests in Afghanistan, Senator Shafqat
Mehmood said that by constructing roads, they want to develop an economic trade corridor from Chahbahar seaport Iran to Afghanistan to Central Asia. Pakistan is not facilitating India for trade in Afghanistan. Therefore they want to by- pass Pakistan’s seaport. Road has been constructed but a lot of work has to be done. However, in the end it will bring more benefits for Indians (Shafqat Mehmood; Personal communiation10-06-
2015)
Professor Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema said that India is investingheavily in
Afghanistan. They have constructed roads for instance about 270 km long Delaram-
Zaranj highway which is a ring road and is connecting all the major cities of Afghanistan to Iranian seaport of Chahbahar. India is also establishing railway network from
Chahbahar to Afghanistan. Main purpose is reducing the Afghan’s dependency on
Pakistan’s seaport for transit trade. India is well aware that propose economic corridor will change the fate of Pakistan. Once it is established then Pakistan will leave behind all regional powers. Indians are worried that’s why they are supporting Afghans to keep them away from Pakistan. Moreover, Indians claims on northern area Gilgit and Baltistan are always rejected by Pakistan. But by claiming these, territories Indians are in fact exerting pressure on Pakistan. (Professor Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema. Personal communication on 17-09-2015)
163 Lt. General Asad Durrani told that Afghans ask for transit facility from Pakistan for
India. Pakistan has provided it but with the condition that Indian goods will not be brought back. Reason behind this condition is that Pakistan has its own reservations regarding Indian goods. In fact the Most Favored Nation Status (MFN Status) was granted to Pakistan by India in 2006 but the same was not given to India. India government has imposed so much heavy taxes on Pakistani items that their exporters
Pakistani could not get the profits from India. On the other hand, the tax imposed on
Indian goods by the Indian authorities is very low or negligible. Therefore, their cost is low and their export in Pakistan will definitely gave harm rather a disastrous harm to the local economy. (Lt. General Rtd. Asad Durrani:Personal Communication.9/9/2015)
Journalist Haroon Rashid and defense analyst Arshaad Mehmood’s perception regarding India-Afghan transit trade is that due to the American’s effort, Pakistan has committed that India can transport Afghan goods to India via Pakistan. But Pakistan has not allowed Indians to send their goods to Afghanistan. Therefore, the situation is that
Indian trucks, loaded with Afghan goods, travel through Pakistan, cross Wahga border, off load goods and come back without anything. India has no access to Afghan Market.
Then same route for central Asian states are not available to India. It is clear to Indians that they cannot use Karachi, Gawadar or Wahga for transportation of its goods. Only available option is Chahbahar which was constructed by Indians in Iran. They have connected it with a ring road, Delaram- Zaranj high way. The advantage of Chahbahar is that India already has trade relations with Iran. Therefore, in order to develop its economic relations with Afghanistan, it can use Iran. Through this, they can send their
164 goods to Central Asia. India has invested in road network and infrastructure. They had
invested $ 2billion so far. (Personal communication; Haroon Rashid and Arshaad
Mehmood. 6/5/2015)
When he was asked about the significance ofChahbahar seaport, Salim Safi
replied that as far as the Chahbahar seaport in Iran is concerned, it is the right of every
country to fetch new venues for economic development to increase its influence and to
develop its seaport up to the maximum level. Pakistan, India and Iran all are doing the
same. Even the Sultanate of Oman, a Gulf country, is also constructing a huge seaport in
the same area. India wants access to the Central Asian Republics. On the other hand,
China is interested to connect with the world through Pakistan. India is looking for the
alternatives routes. He further added that if Pakistan develops its seaport Gawadar as it is
planned, it will be that much effective and attractive for the regional stake holders that
nobody will turn to Chahbahar seaport. However, India will use it due to its hostile nature
of relationship with Pakistan. (Salim Safi; personal communication. 25-05-2015)
5.3 Pakistan’s investment in Afghanistan;
Professor Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema is a professor and analyst of political science. He is expert in South Asian affairs and its politics. His view about Pakistan’s investment in
Afghanistan is that Pakistan is also doing effort as it is investing $3.5 million there. The road from Torkhum to Jalalabad has been built recently. Now the plan is to double the road. In universities the Indians are investing for building, institutions and other facilities.
Pakistan is also doing up to some extent but the scale is not as high as of Indians.
165 Actually Pakistan is basically interested in stable Afghanistan which will obviously favorable. If Pakistan can get electricity from Tajikistan and energy from Turkmenistan, then it will be able to reap the fruit and it is only possible when the Central Asian States are accessible from a peaceful Afghanistan. Pakistan’s borders will be secured also as if there comes the stability as cross border terrorism will also diminish. (Professor Pervaiz
Iqbal Cheema. Personal communication on 17-09-2015)
Another analyst and expert on Afghan affairs, Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai opinion about Pakistan’s investment in Afghanistan is that Pakistan’s has also invested in
Afghanistan but for a long time Pakistan has wasted its money. It gave money to the mujahedeen. It invested on fighters and different groups to get favor. It created groupings and opposition for Pakistan in certain Afghan quarters. Pakistan investedon Taliban and wars. It all finished. Indians also funded to Northern Alliance and gave arms, ammunition and training. They are also working in mining sector in Hajigak with heavy investment.
But they built roads, hospitals, and dams. Pakistan also did some good work there. It built
Torkhum, Jalalabad road and handed over to Afghans. Now Pakistan is making it a dual carriage way. Pakistan has handed over schools to Afghan authorities in almost every
Afghan city. Pakistan is also establishing facilities in the universities and constructed fully equipped blocks. About three thousand Afghans are studying in professional colleges in Pakistan. These are other than Afghan refugee’s children who are living and studying in Pakistan. Pakistan has raised the number of scholarships for Afghan students up to 3000 students per year. Pakistani doctors set up medical camps for the treatment of poor in the remote areas of Afghanistan where no health facility is available. Even, in
166 Pakistan, hospitals are providing them health facilities. Almost percent Afghan, who seek medical treatment abroad, came to Peshawar. There are two excellent private sector hospitals in Peshawar. They are Rehman Medical Institute (RMI) and North West
(NWH) hospital. Their standard is equal to Agha Khan Hospital Karachi. The RMI hospital was built by famous Cardiologist of Karachi Dr. Rehman. He was originally from Peshawar that’s why he built a world class hospital in Peshawar namely Rehman
Medical Institute. It is of this high standard that Afghan prefers it over expensive treatment in Europe. (Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai. Personal communication on 5th
September 2015)
Mohammad Sadiq, ex-Ambassador of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan to
Afghanistan gave a detailed account of the contribution of Pakistan government in the reconstruction of Afghanistan. He mentioned that Pakistan has many firsts in Afghanistan after 9/11 as it has quietly extended support for the reconstruction of Afghanistan since
2001. The first foreign bank to operate in Kabul after 9/11 was National Bank of
Pakistan, which was followed by two other private Pakistani banks. Similarly, Pakistan’s national flag carrier Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) is the first foreign airline to start operations to Kabul after 9/11 and opened up Afghanistan to international air traffic.
In education sector, Pakistan has contributed a lot. About six thousand Afghan students are currently attending (in 2009) colleges and universities in Pakistan. More than
2000,000 Afghan refugee children attend primary and secondary schools funded by
Pakistan. Moreover, we have just started one thousand fully funded scholarships programme to Pakistani universities. (Mohammad Sadiq; personal communication .19
November, 2009) Journalist and expert of Indian affairs Haroon Rashid and expert of
167 Indo- Pak relations Arshaad Mehmood are of the view that Pakistan has easy approach to
Afghanistan. It has cultural and religious ties as well. But unfortunately, in their opinion,
Pakistan didn’t emphasize on its soft power in Afghanistan. However, now Pakistan has reviewed its policies. Senator Syed Mushahid Husain has lead a delegation to
Afghanistan. Afghan delegates visited Pakistan in return. Pakistan’s universities and professional colleges are offering admission to Afghan students and things are improving.
(Personal communication; Haroon Rashid and Arshaad Mehmood. 6/5/2015)
It is pertinent to mention that, along with Pakistan, China is playing an important role in the Afghan polity. Infact presence of China is a supporting factor for Pakistan within
Afghanistan. Journalist Haroon Rashid and defense analyst Arshaad Mehmood’s perception about China factor in Indo-Afghan and Indo-Pakistan relations is that now
USA is pumping money into Afghanistan but after its forces withdrawal, no money will be available to run the economy. Therefore politics will also suffer. To fill the gap created by power vacuum, China and Pakistan are closely working. India had reservations regarding this. They said that they can foresee that in coming 6-7 months, Pak-India relations will be more hostile. (Personal communication; Haroon Rashid and Arshaad
Mehmood. 6/5/2015)
RegardingChina, Journalist Haroon Rashid and defense analyst Arshaad Mehmood’s perception is that China is very important as China is playing a pivotal role in stabilizing
Pak-Afghan relations. They are assisting in Taliban peace talk. It is for the first time in
Chinese history that they are involved in this sort of matter. Chinese presence in
Afghanistan is itself a guarantee for Pakistan that we will have no disadvantage there.
Chinese have invested particularly in mining sector. Now they are planning beyond this.
168 Gradually they are shifting to railway, road networks and other activities in Afghanistan.
(Personal communication; Haroon Rashid and Arshaad Mehmood. 6/5/2015)
About China, the perception of Lt. General Asad Durrani, ex Director General of
Pakistan’s intelligence Agency is that India is playing its cards well with USA as well as
China. It is getting benefit from both of them. It is not playing proxy war of any country but using its statecraft skills and getting benefits in billions from both the countries. The economic corridor is a positive development but important thing is that whether Pakistan has will, ability and power to execute it and get benefits out of it. (Lt. General Rtd. Asad
Durrani:Personal Communication.9/9/2015)
Professor Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema elaborated that China is the common enemy of
USA and India. But India is crook enough thats why it will not directly create any confrontation with China. Its trade with China is gradually increasing. From zero to $70 billion volume of mutual trade has been achieved within few years. Now they are planning around $100 billion trade between China and India. He said that hehas mentioned this fact many times but Americans understand certain things very late. He said that he told Americans that India will squeeze every concession they (Americans) are willing to give them and never allowed them to be used against China. Indians are squeezing concession on the excuse of anti-China. We actually understand Indians but
American don’t. There are two reasons behind their strategy. One is this that China is the next door neighbor of India, a big powerful neighbor. Not like Pakistan but more powerful than India. Second is that Indian economy is growing. Growing economy always needs a market and China is a huge market. Why would they sacrifice that?
Whenever America wants to give some aid to them, they accept it immediately. Its proof
169 is the recent nuclear deal between India and United States of America. America went out of the way to have a deal with a Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT) member. Not only NPT member but the amendment was made in Nuclear Supplier Group. But cleverly, instead of purchasing all nuclear power plants from USA, they bought only one. They bought rest from Russia, France, and other countries. Indians are very clever while Pakistan is not behaving in international relations cleverly. Pakistan’s politicians deliver speeches but only to target their opposition.They can’t think in long term. . (Professor Pervaiz Iqbal
Cheema. Personal communication on 17-09-2015)
Professor Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema stated that Americans are helping Indians because they don’t have any option in the region. Pakistan is already very close to China so ultimately
USA is investing in India. In this situation, Pakistan should stay close to China and that economic corridor is a must. Pakistan will get tremendous benefit out of it. (Professor
Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema. Personal communication on 17-09-2015)
Pakistan and India both have invested in Afghanistan through human capital. Journalist
Haroon Rashid and defense analyst Arshaad Mehmood’s perception about Indian work force in Afghanistan is that almost 5000 Indians are working in Afghanistan at present.
The apparent interest of India in Afghanistan is to maintain its influence/existence in
Afghanistan. The Indra Gandhi Institute for Children Health in Kabul, the parliament building and other things are the marks of physical appearance. As in the case of
Pakistan, in 70’s, Chinese physically showed their presence by building Heavy Industries
Taxila, Heavy Mechanical Complex Taxila, Pakistan Sports Complex, Islamabad and Pak
China Friendship Centre in Islamabad. So it is the common practice of countries to do so.
170 Pakistan must not get worried of Indian activities there. (Personal communication;
Haroon Rashid and Arshaad Mehmood. 6/5/2015)
Journalist Haroon Rashid and defense analyst Arshaad Mehmood told that almost 0.15 million of Pakistani skilled workers are engaged in Afghanistan. They are doing variety of jobs there. One can say that from an ordinary carpenter to the chief executive of a bank is Pakistani, working in Afghanistan. Pakistan has natural relationship with Afghans.
Pakistan’s demand, supply and proximity of geography are with Afghanistan.
On the issue of, granting the MFN status to India by Pakistan,Professor Pervaiz
Iqbal Cheema said thatMost Favored Nation’s (MFN) status was granted to Pakistan in
2006. Ex-Prime Minister of Pakistan, Mr. Shaukat Aziz commented on the same request from India that until the solution of Kashmir problem, it will not granted MFN status to
India. Shaukat Aziz left but the issue is still there. MFN status is that the Government issued list of items which are duty free and can be easily imported and exported. Pakistan authorities have principally agreed but the public opinion in Pakistan is against it. In fact when one translates this MFN status in Urdu, it means a nation which is the favorite one.
This is generally not accepted notion. Moreover, Indians often uses unfair means for example, a truck full of apples reach at border crossing point at Wahga. Indian officials did not let the truck pass but will ask for certificate of clearance which will authenticate that it is not harmful to health. That certificate often took 15 days to reach back from
Bombay. So it brought damage to the product. Indians are used to use many unfair tactics. But now things are little bit improve. Now Indian authorities allowed to get certificates issued from food laboratories of Lahore also. (Professor Pervaiz Iqbal
Cheema. Personal communication on 17-09-2015)
171 Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema further added that Pakistan has increased the number of items on the export-import list. But after the regime change in India, things are again not very favorable for Pakistan’s importers. They are often forced to stop at the entrance point with a number of reasons for instance shortage of space etc. It is obviously very dangerous for fruits and vegetables. His point of view is that MFN status must be granted. But people here in Pakistan have many misconceptions. Prime time political discussion programmes on TV channels blackmail the government. Politicians also exploit the situation. (Professor Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema. Personal communication on 17-
09-2015)
Rustam Shah Mehmund opines that Most Favored Nation (MFN) status has not so far been granted to India by Pakistan. It is just because of the Pakistan’s military’s strategy of strategic depth. In fact the political leadership is not capable to decide. They are lacking in vision as well as capacity. If there comes a Nelson Mandela or Tayyab
Ordgan then the situation might be improved but with current leadership, nothing is expected. These politicians just want to stay in power by whatever cost they have to pay.
Foreign policy is not in their hands. They are not worried. They are worried about their personal interests only. In fact by doing so, the non-state actors are getting power and limiting the authority of politicians. This is leading towards a dangerous path (Rustam
Shah Mehmund; personal communication. 2/9/2015)
5.4 TAPI Project
Pakistan is energy deficit country and wants to get benefit from energy rich
Central Asian States. Unless or until Afghanistan is stabilized, Pakistan cannot get secure
172 passage for import of energy. Kirgizstan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan, all are ready to
sell electricity due to the abundance of the electricity but the stable Afghanistan is
prerequisite. A project of supply of gas from Central Asia to Pakistan and India, through
Afghanistan calledTAPI (Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan and India Gas Pipe Line
Project) is in the pipeline. Pakistan’s genuine interest is a stabilized Afghanistan. If
Afghanistan become a stabilized country then it will not be acceptable for Indians. They
will try their level best to create misunderstanding between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Indians are visibly present in Afghanistan. They are investing about $2 billion in
Afghanistan. The Indra Gandhi Children Hospital in Kabul is an example. It is creating a
soft and friendly image of Indians in Afghanistan. Indians are giving aid and wants its
return in the form of soft image which they always do. (Professor Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema.
Personal communication on 17-09-2015)
5.5 Cross Border Terrorism; Army Public School’s Incident:
Pakistan is facing terrorism and its related horrible activities since long but the most dangerous and painful was of Army Public School Peshawar. Rahim Ullah
Yousafzai narrated the whole incident. He told that when in Peshawar, on 16th of
December, 2016, Army Public School Peshawar (APS), a school run by Pakistan’s military establishment, was attacked; it was immediately blamed on Afghan based terrorists. Pakistan’s media, allegedly blame Afghans working in the same school. The breaking news was that canteen in Army Public School Peshawar was run by an Afghan contractor and he was the facilitator as well as mastermind. The actual and factual
173 position was that that man was from Nowshera, Pakistan. In fact there are 3-4 villages of that area whose people are running canteens in cantonment areas in all over Pakistan.
They are Chirath, Saleh Khana etc. These people are working since British times. The canteen contractor of APS was from the same area. No ammunition was there in the canteen. There was a Qari Sahib (Islamic religious teacher) who was from outside the school and he was the main facilitator. There were six persons who facilitated them, kept their ammunition, provided them with ladders, serve them with goods, provided them vehicles and allowed them to stay in their houses. Five of them were granted death sentences while one was granted life imprisonment. These all were facilitators and were inside Pakistan or around the APS Peshawar. The masterminds of the whole attack were three; Maulvi Fazul-Ullah the head of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, Operational commander Arif and Khalifa Omer Mansur. All were in Afghanistan. They even issued their picture which was taken before incident as they all three were bidding farewell to 6 attackers. The APS was attacked on 16th December 2014 and the Pakistan Army Chief went to Kabul on 17th December with all these evidences. All the conversation of militant attackers was intercepted by Pakistan Army. Soon after the attack, the intercepting equipment was taken to the place and all conversation was recorded and monitored during the incident as Khalifa Omer was talking to them. He inquired about the number of deaths. He was told that about 300 had been killed so far and nobody left there, only children were in the Primary school. The Khalifa Omer asked whether Army personals arrived or not. He gave them command to blow you up when the army personals came near to them. Only then the more damage could be inflicted. Pakistan
Army even identified the areas where the masterminds were stationed; it was a village
174 Nazian in Nangarhar province in Afghanistan. Pakistan Army Chief General Raheel
Sharif visited Afghanistan soon after incident and presented information and proofs to
Afghan authorities. He told them their whereabouts and requested for action against them. They just superficially did some operation as the Afghan Army has neither will nor ability to take action against these culprits. They took action against Afghan Taliban.
These actions were not against Mullah Fazul-ur-Rehman or Khalifa Omar or Pakistani
Taliban specifically. Nothing came out of it then there was news that Afghan government has captured the APS attacks master mind. Pakistani Army official were granted access to these persons for interrogation but they were not handed over to Pakistan. They were not the original persons but common Afghan and Pakistani Taliban. They were not important men. Moreover the major masterminds are freely roaming there in Afghanistan and no person has so far inflicted harm to them. (Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai. Personal communication on 5th September 2015)
Rahim Ullah Yousafzai elaborated the situation at Pak-Afghan border. He said that it is very difficult to control the Pakistan-Afghanistan border movement. In all 7-8 agencies peoples are divided into tribes and families. They frequently visit each other across the border without visa formalities. The 2500 km long border consists of difficult terrain. The border is mostly pours. So the physical features are beyond control and monitor. In Durand Line agreement, it is written that the tribesmen living across the border have “Easement rights”. They can cross without visa formalities. They will be checked at only two points, Torkhum and Chaman. Not all but randomly. (Rahim Ullah
Yousaf Zai. Personal communication on 5th September 2015)
175 Haroon Rashid, Arshaad Mehmood told that every day, thousands and thousands men, women and children cross Pak-Afghan border. Now in Baluchistan, Pakistan has built a strong wall of 480 km length along the border. Behind this high wall is trench of
8m wide so nobody can cross it. It is just like of Indians walls at Pak-India border which played a significant role in eliminating the grass roots of Sikh separatist movement from
Indian Punjab. (Personal communication; Haroon Rashid, Arshaad Mehmood. 6/5/2015)
Haroon Rashid and Arshaad Mehmood opines that everyday thousands and thousands men, women and children cross Pak-Afghan border. Now in Baluchistan, Pakistan has built a strong wall of 480 km length along the border. Behind this high wall is trench of
8m wide so nobody can cross it. It is just like of Indians walls at Pak-India border which played a significant role in eliminating the grass roots of Sikh separatist movement from
Indian Punjab. (Personal communication: Haroon Rashid. Arshaad Mehmood 6/5/2015)
Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai describes the physical/geographical picture of Pak-Afghan border. Due to its difficult terrain, it is very difficult to manage it. He said that during
Musharaf period, with great hurdles and difficulties, on the 35km area of Pak Afghan border, fencing was made possible. It is a difficult terrain; mountains and dessert area both are there. Musharaf said to Afghan government that let fence the whole border as
Afghan often blame Pakistan for sending Taliban to Afghanistan. He also gave alternative suggestions of mining the border. Both the suggestions were turned down by
Afghans. Reason or logic was that they don’t accept Durand Line as border. Neither got they accept it nor did the Afghanistan accept. Formally they don’t accept it. Even
Pakistan tribes don not accept it. They said that our families and business are at the both sides of the borders. Therefore they cannot accept this division or border.Many Afghan
176 studies in Pakistan and they enter in Pakistan in the morning and left Afghanistan at the evening. Once, Rustam Shah went to Pak-Afghan border. He saw that there was a mosque on the border where residents told him that they do absolution in Afghanistan and offer prayers in Pakistan. These sorts of things, at the border of Pak-Afghan, are common. Many houses are half in Pakistan and half in Afghanistan. Mehmund, Wazir,
Shinwari, Achakzai and many other small tribes are living at both sides of the border as they have blood relation as well as cultural ties with each other. (Rahim Ullah Yousaf
Zai. Personal communication on 5th September 2015)
It was inquired from Rustam Shah Mehmund that whether fixing of the fence is the solution of cross-border movement. Rustam Shah Mehmund stated that fixing fence on Pak-Afghan border is not possible. He said that things are actually not that much easy as they seem to be. Afghanistan has 34 provinces. At the moment, there is active war going on in 25 of its provinces. About 9 Afghan provinces are situated at the border of
Pakistan. Pakistan has managed 1150 border posts at Pak-Afghan border. Likewise,
Afghan government and coalition forces have made 150 check posts at border between
Pakistan and Afghanistan. America is also doing surveillance through satellites, re- consonance planes, radars and human intelligence. Rustam Shah Mehmund asserted that in his view, when Afghanistan blames Pakistan for any attack, he surprised that when these so-called Pakistani warriors enter from Pakistan to Afghanistan, they select target almost 80 to 90 km inside Afghanistan. They attack and stay for 8-10 days there. Then they come back. Question is that, whether they are invisible that no one can capture them despite of all these 1300 check posts and surveillance. How it is possible that they are not captured. In last 14 years there is not a single incident when anybody from Pakistan was
177 captured or killed in encounter while entering in Afghanistan. There is very little movement across the border now. People cross it but very secretively and very few dare to. The transportation of weapons is very difficult rather impossible. There are 235 entry and exit points at Pak-Afghan border. These are visible in the pictures taken by the
American satellites. Only 5 to 6 are used for trade and transportation like Torkhum and
Chaman but the rest are not functional. There are rough tracks on mountains and hilly terrain. So in his opinion, Rustam Shah Mehmund asked that where there are 1150 posts by Pakistani government and 150 posts established by American Coalition Forces, how it is possible to cross the border without getting noticed. Therefore, cross border terrorism is just propaganda and blame game. All the resistance going on in different provinces in
Afghanistan is indigenous. Even if it is assumed for a moment that people from Pakistan are involved in these activities, then why the resistance is in the provinces of Ghazni,
Logar and Wardak which are far away from Pakistan. How people from Pakistan can reach there without being noticed likewise provinces adjacent to Turkmenistan i.e. Pan-
Koi and Kundoz and provinces at Iran-Afghan border, Herat and Baghdees have also strong resistance. How people from Pakistan can approach these areas. It is just propaganda and lack of information. Pakistani authorities use to say that people from
Afghanistan came here and Afghan says that invaders from Pakistan went there and doing killing. This allegation is not based on reality at all. Ground realities are quite different. However, it is a fact that due to the operation Zarb-e-Azab, a great number of people moved from North Waziristan to other areas. For instance, it is estimated that about 125 thousands Pakistanis are staying in Khost province of Afghanistan where government of Afghanistan is providing them food, shelter and water to survive. They are
178 living there due to the operation. (Rustam Shah Mehmund; personal communication.
2/9/2015)
Haroon Rashid and Arshaad Mehmood opine that Pakistan has even improved its surveillance at Pak/Afghan border at Chitral. In fact, during the winter season, the roads of Chitral, due to the heavy snowfall, get closed. Then Pakistanis have to cross the Pak-
Afghan border near Chitral and after some distance re-enter into Pakistan area. Pakistan has improved its surveillance at this point to stop infiltration. (Personal communication;
Haroon Rashid. Arshaad Mehmood.6/5/2015)
Rustam Shah Mehmund describes the issue of cross border terrorism in Pakistan from
Afghanistan as just a misconception and propaganda. He is of the view that the cross border terrorism is propagated widely through electronic and print media because of the intensions of military forces to get the reason for their building cantonments in these areas. The most fertile land of Khyber Agency, Terah has been converted into cantonment along with many other areas of KPK and Tribal belt. The tribal culture is very different. Women are not the purdah observer but they are active in daily life. They use to work in fields. They fetch water. They collect fire woods from the places outside their houses. The establishment of cantonment will limit their activities. Their culture will be changed. In the tribal agencies like Khyber agency, Mehmund agency, Orakzai agency, North Waziristan agency, South Waziristan agency and Kurram agency, Hindus and Sikhs were living for last one thousand years side by side with Muslims. They were never attacked, humiliated or forcefully converted to Islam. They were living with utmost peace and harmony as nobody had ever touched them. When after 9/11, the different activities started then all of the Hindus and Sikhs of tribal areas left for India. Now, the
179 societal and cultural values have been changed due to the violence and fighting. He said that he is worried for these people as they have to face many challenges due to these policies in future. Therefore he prays for them and wishes them his sincere wishes that may Allah Almighty showers his blessings on the people of these areas. Amen (Rustam shah Mehmund; personal communication. 2/9/2016)
Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai narrated that there are frequently cross border firings and clashes on Pak-Afghan border. In one of the recent events, both sides opened fire on each other. It is not established yet that who did first but Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai is of the opinion that, Afghanistan started it. Pakistani forces were building a check post at the
Pak-Afghan border. Afghanistan declared it encroachment in their area and opened fire.
Four Pakistani soldiers were killed. Pakistan forces responded. Afghanistan government claimed that its eight soldiers were killed. This event took place after that Ashraf Ghani
10th August 2015 press conference. If the President of a country is issuing such statement, full of anti-Pakistan sentiments, obviously, his subject will also have impacts.
After this incident, their chief executive officer Dr. Abdullah also issued an anti-Pakistan statement. He was also silent for last ten months. He also availed the chance as he is always very much against Pakistan and aired a very harsh tone for Pakistan. Even their first Vice President Gen Abdul Rashid Dostum said that in their province Faryab, on the border of Turkmenistan, the fighting between Afghan forces and Taliban is going on. He said that a serving ISI General is commanding the Taliban Forces. (Rahim Ullah Yousaf
Zai. Personal communication on 5th September 2015)
Recently the situation is that on 3rd September 2015, it has been pledged from both the sides that there will be no blame game and no media war. We hope for the
180 longer period of peace and stability. (Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai. Personal communication on 5th September 2015)
5.6 Pakistan, victim of Terrorism
Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai elaborated that Pakistan’s problem started when in 1993
Pakistan Army started action for the first time in South Waziristan, a tribal agency, and then it spread into whole FATA then to KPK as in Malakand, Swat areas. So the problem is spreading along all Pakistan. Then TTP formed alliances with Lashkar-e-Jhangvi and
Sipah-e-Sahaba. They were like minded. Then they started joint operations. For instance, a group from Waziristan needs skills, local intelligence, food, transportation and ammunition. It will be only possible when provided by local residents. Therefore, almost all attacks are joint operation. That’s why Pakistan Army Chief said that they are not only after militants but their facilitators too because without their help nothing can be done.
(Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai. Personal communication on 5th September 2015)
Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai further added that these militants need support before attacks and need assistance soon after attacks to get refuge. There are also speculations that Baluch separatists might have joined them. They are secular and Taliban are religious extremists. But they joined hands due to the common agenda of being anti-state elements. They might got training from TTP as how to use arms, how to made IED and other basic things. They have targeted the remotest areas of FATA. (Rahim Ullah Yousaf
Zai. Personal communication on 5th September 2015)
Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai while talking about operations against terrorists by
Pakistan Army, told that on 15 June 2015, the on-going operation against terrorists, Zarb- e-Azab was started. Earlier, Pakistan’s Prime Minister calls on Afghan President Ashraf
181 Ghani and told him about forth coming operation Zarb-e-Azab. As pre-requisite of the operation, he asked him to make border secure so that militants cannot escape and deploy
Afghan army so that Pakistan can target them but sadly Hamid Karzai did not bother at all. Now they are blaming Pakistan that they sent terrorists to Afghanistan. Although it is also dangerous for Pakistan that after some time, these terrorists will return back and inflict more harm to Pakistan. He added that in his view it is necessary to have will power and ability to take action; the Afghans have none of them. (Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai.
Personal communication on 5th September 2015)
When inquired about the proposed right course of action in order to meet the challenges pose d by terrorism, Rahim Ullah Yousafzai gave an example. He said that in order to curb the Sikh movement in Indian Punjab, Indian army increased the surveillance at Indo-Pak border as it was blamed that Pakistan was supporting Sikh insurgents.
Moreover India builds a ten meter high fence at border with watchtowers. In this way they were able to efficiently control the Sikh separatist movement. Now Afghans are blaming Pakistan but not doing anything solid to control insurgents. Back in October
2014, Pakistan started operation Khyber I and Khyber II Khyber one was in Bara area and Khyber two was in Terah valley. Pakistan requested Afghans for Army deployment on Pak-Afghan border across Terah Valley to stop them. They didn’t. (Rahim Ullah
Yousaf Zai. Personal communication on 5th September 2015)
When asked about much talked consulates of India in Afghanistan, Lt. General
Rtd. Asad Durrani, ex-ISI Chief said that Pakistan often talks about the consulates of
India on Pak Afghan border. During the period of President General Pervaiz Musharaf, once, he was on a foreign tour. In his absence, the Senate of Pakistan’s Chairman Mr.
182 Muhammad Mian Soomro (2006-2009) was acting President. Talking to a German delegation, he claimed that Indians had set up nine consulates at Pak Afghan border. It was a wrong statement. They never set nine, instead they were only four. They are in
Mazar-e-Sharif, Herat, Kandahar and Jalalabad. It sounds funny that for spying purpose,
Indians are using consulates: they have hundred other ways to do this job. They are engage in a lot of developmental work there. It is even not difficult for them. They can spy through their Border Road Organization, their medical missions or other organizations involved in development activities. These consulates were actually opened
30 or 40 years back. Therefore, Pakistan has not to be worried of these even if they are spying then what. Let them do. This is their right to protect their states interests. (Lt.
General Rtd. Asad Durrani: Personal Communication.9/9/2015)
Salim Safi is of the opinion that certain things were exaggerated in Pakistan for instance some claiming that there are almost 28 Indians consulates in Afghanistan. Other says 12, but infact they are just four and they are from British time. If these consulates are worth worrying point, then Indians have consulate in Zahidan, Iran also. Likewise, many countries have consultant there. Therefore, it is not a matter of tension. They are spending money to get influence. Infact, as compare to Pakistan, Indians, proportion to the size of their economy are spending very little in Afghanistan. (Salim Safi; personal communication. 25-05-2015)
Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema is of the view that when Pakistani authorities propagate that
Indians have many consulates along the Pakistan and Afghanistan border, Indians simply deny it. Their statement is that they have one embassy in Kabul and four consulates.
Others along the border, according to the Indians, are just information centers /training
183 centers, and are too many.(Professor Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema. Personal communication on
17-09-2015)
Journalist Haroon Rashid and Defense analyst Arshaad Mehmood discussed Indian involvement in Baluchistan. They said that in insurgencies, there are always counter insurgencies for instance in Indian held Kashmir certain Jihadist groups joined India and played in their hands and served their purpose. They even killed their group members.
Tehreek Taliban Pakistan (TTP) was supported by Indians. They supported Baluch insurgents. A United Nation’s (UN) official was kidnapped from Quetta and was found in Afghanistan. Pakistan's then Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani presented proofs of
Indian support to Baluch insurgents from Kabul to American President Barak Obama in
Sharm-ul-Sheikh, Egypt, where world leaders were gathered for a conference. For the very first time, it was clearly mentioned that Research Analysis Wing (RAW), India’s intelligence agency, is involved in Baluchistan as they have training camps in
Afghanistan. (Personal communication; Haroon Rashid, Arshaad Mehmood. 6/5/2015)
Journalist Haroon Rashid and defense analyst Arshaad Mehmood told about their visit of
India in 2006. They said that they were surprised to see that in major Indian Daily
Newspapers, there were full pages on Baluchistan. In India Times or Hindu, the major or widely read newspapers of India, the Baluch, their history, their insurgency, their nationalist leaders like Bugti, Murree all were in-detailed mentioned. The killing of
Baluch rebels and comments again Pakistan establishment were its part. In 2007, again they visited India. Same was the situation. In order to prepare their public opinion in favor of Baluch insurgency, they started it in 2000. They have long planning. Gradually they have built the support up to this extent that Brahamgadh Bugti, a prominent Baluch
184 leader who was living in Kabul, is using Indian Passport for traveling. Another rebel, son of Murree tribe’s chieftain Harbiar Murree is also using Indian passport. (Personal communication; Haroon Rashid, Arshaad Mehmood. 6/5/2015)
5.7 Indian Role in Afghanistan; India’s Double Game
Lt. General Rtd. Asad Durrani, ex-ISI Chief is of the view that Pakistan always claims that Indians are playing double game. He said that it is their right. Every country wants to have its influence in other parts of the world. India is the largest country in the region. It has big economy. It definitely wants to expand its influence in its neighborhood. They are doing developmental work in Afghanistan. It is liked by Afghan themselves. In this situation, if we try to stop them, Afghans will not like this action.
They might ask that who we are to stop this development in their country. This is also the right of Afghans to enjoy cordial relation with their neighbors. On the other hand,
Afghans are good at getting favors. They always benefitted from outside world. The know how to cash their geographical location. They are well versed in playing games.
They got benefit from all. Pakistanis are not in the position to dictate them.
(Lt. General Rtd. Asad Durrani:Personal Communication.9/9/2015)
When it was inquired about the role of Pakistan’s major spy agency, Inter-
Services Intelligence (ISI), Rustam Shah Mehmund replied that in fact, the role of ISI has been so much exaggerated that Indians and Afghans blame ISI for every ill doing there.
He said that he doesn’t think that ISI has this much capacity or required to play such role.
It is out of its scope and limitations. It is counterproductive to do so as ISI is not involved in any kind of things. (Rustam shah Mehmund; personal communication. 2/9/2015)
185 Regarding role of Pakistani intelligence agencies and especially of (ISI), in
Afghanistan, Lt. General Retired, Asad Durrani, ex-ISI Chief, said that it was always being exaggerated. They are not that much involved now but media portrayed negative image. When Russians left, Americans also left the region and said that as we are busy is
Eastern Europe, we have to do a lot of things there. So they left. A power vacuum was then created and lead to civil war in Afghanistan. But now the situation is different. Now the Americans want to stay. They realized that if they withdrew then the Kabul regime will be collapsed. That’s why they have extended their stay from 2014 to 2016 and may be beyond this. (Lt. General Rtd. Asad Durrani: Personal Communication.9/9/2015)
According to Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai, the Afghan intelligence agency was trained by two institutions RAW and CIA. These two are interfering in Afghan government policies. They gave asylum to the Baluch separatist in Afghanistan. These
Baluch were openly calling press conferences, issuing statements and talking to media. It also brought Afghan government on weak footing. Now Braham Dag Bugti has left
Kabul for Geneva, Switzerland, where he has sought political asylum. It is even mentioned in wiki- leaks that Hamid Karzai is saying to USA and UN official that do not discuss about Baluch separatists. They are here. They are in our protection; you must not have any concern about them. The Afghan intelligence agency, National Directorate of
Security (NDS) has direct links with Pakistani Taliban’s through RAW. A Pakistani
Taliban’s commander Latif Ullah Mehsud who was the driver as well as the cousin of
Hakim Ullah Mehsud, once went to NDS headquarters for meeting with officials in
Kabul. He was captured by the American commandos. After thorough interrogation, he revealed about the where about of Taliban’s hide out. Due to his confession, America
186 forces were able to kill Hakim-Ullah Mehsud in a drone attack in North Waziristan. The investigation report was about of 30000 pages. The information was gathered from Latif
Ullah Mehsud and two other members of Tehreek-Taliban Pakistan. These three men, along with the investigation report of 30000 pages were handed over to the Pakistani authorities. Pakistan’s ISI is having all the report. Now they (ISI) got more evidences of possible RAW and NDS collaboration and RAW and TTP connection. Earlier Pakistani officials were careful while blaming Indians, their involvement or interference. But now it is confirmed that there are linkages. For the first time, Pakistan has shared this information with USA. Now Pakistan has provided evidences to the Afghans. (Rahim
Ullah Yousaf Zai. Personal communication on 5th September 2015)
In the north of Afghanistan, Kundoz, Badakshan and Tukhar provinces are sharing the border with Tajikistan. In Tajikistan, hardly two kilometers from Afghan- Tajikistan border, India has an Air Force base in Farkhor. In fact it was established by India in the
Soviet Union period. India was investing on this base and maintained it. Now India is paying to Tajikistan. Indians had built a hospital there. The maintenance facility of MI helicopter is also there. This base with its hospital maintenance facilities was in use of
Northern Alliance. Even when an important leader of Northern Alliance Ahmad Shah
Masood was severely injured in an attack he was brought to the Farkhor hospital. India maintained this base on heavy cost. In fact it was difficult for India to operate at such a long distance. To support Northern Alliance India is spending heavily. Indians foremost objectives are that if Taliban took over then the Indians will use this base in order to help their allies Northern Alliance. (Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai. Personal communication on 5th
September 2015)
187 5.8 Pakistan and Afghanistan; Strategic Allies
According Professor Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema, Americans, despite the eagerness of India to train the Afghan National forces (ANF) are not willing to allow Indians play active role in training of ANF. Americans are looking forward for a balance in the region because if they let India now to train Afghan national army at larger scale then it might be possible that in the case of any future clash between Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, Afghanistan will became a party and will join India in fighting with Pakistan. That’s why the
Americans are snubbing India as well as Pakistan. In fact they are not sympathetic to any country. They are protecting their own national interest. If it requires the support of any country, they will do it. That’s why they are more tilted towards Indians. It is not because of any quality of Indians but due to their national priorities. (Professor Pervaiz Iqbal
Cheema. Personal communication on 17-09-2015)
While discussing the role of India in respect of training of Afghan National Army,
Rustam shah Mehmund narrated that there were many speculations regarding training of
Afghan National Army as Pakistan and India, both are interested to train Afghan National
Army but the domestic problems of Afghanistan are of this nature that Afghans will not let any of them to train them in bulk. Although, special kind of training to small groups of people is in process as Afghan Cadets are in Pakistan Military Academy, Kakul. Some
Afghan officers are in Staff and Command Collage, Quetta. Same is in the case of India but as far as the training of a Brigade of Afghan National Army is concerned, it is not possible now. Maybe, in future, any kind of arrangement happened but not at the moment. Because, if Pakistan trains their forces, then they might blame that Pakistan will brainwash them, indoctrinate them and will do this and that. He said that in Afghanistan,
188 the general perception about Pakistan is not good. Even the personals of Pakistan embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan, are named as ISI agents, although, those poor souls don’t know anything about it. (Rustam Shah Mehmund; personal communication. 2/9/2015)
Though, there is no denial of the fact that that Pakistan supported Taliban’s. Even letting them to live here is also a big support. But Pakistan has a big concern about the use of
Afghan land against Pakistan. India has overwhelming support and influence in
Afghanistan. The NDS is playing in the hands of RAW. Pakistan is much worried about it. In order to stop them, Pakistan policy is to use Taliban’s (enemy of my enemy is my friend) to counter Indian objectives within Afghanistan. Haqani network is also the part of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan. (Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai. Personal communication on
5th September 2015)
As far as their linkages with India are concerned, it is an established fact that
Pakistani Taliban’s are being supported by Indians. It was proven by Latif Ullah
Mehsud’s confession. He was directly in contact with NDS and indirectly with RAW.
Afghan Taliban’s are different. (Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai. Personal communication on
5th September 2015)
Lt. General Rtd. Asad Durrani said that here people talks about strategic depth doctrine.
His opinion is that not only Pakistan but Afghanistan is also having a strategic depth at
Pak-Afghan border. How: they are attacked by the foreigners; they came here in millions; their business is in big cities like Karachi and Lahore; their families are in Islamabad; their property is in Peshawar. All these things are going on for last four decades. Pakistan is so important and precious to them that they do not want to harm it. That is only when
189 they take independent decisions. (Lt. General Rtd. Asad Durrani:Personal
Communication.9/9/2015)
Lt. General Rtd. Asad Durrani discussed that Pakistan usually say that during King Zahir
Shah Period (1937-1973) Pak-Afghan relations were not very cordial. Pakistan fought two major wars in 1965 and 1971 with India. During these two wars, the message from
Afghans was that please take away all your troops from western borders to eastern one with India. They ensure Pakistan that no harm will be given to them from their side. Even the Frontier constabulary was removed from the Pak-Afghan borders. Although the relation between Pakistan and Afghanistan were not cordial but at that difficult time,
Pakistan was sure that Afghans will not inflict any harm to them and will take care. Once
Afghanistan was under foreign occupation either Russians or someone else, same very border was and are headache and this is the equation. (Lt. General Rtd. Asad
Durrani:Personal Communication.9/9/2015)
Lt. General Rtd. Asad Durrani is of the view that, People, troops, arms or money,
Afghans will be happy to make use of any argument or money provided by Indians.
Today Indians are giving them and they are playing that particular card. Govern these finds it very convenient. But in the long term, they can’t survive without us; whether it is holding talks with Taliban or managing refugees. Afghan markets are full of Pakistani goods. Pakistani rupee has acceptability there. One can get it change easily or shop in
Pakistan’s Rupees. This is the type of relationship, we are enjoying since long. In fact playing the cards is one thing and knowing where the interests lie, that is another thing
(Lt. General Rtd. Asad Durrani:Personal Communication.9/9/2015).
190 Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai opines that it was propagated in Pakistan’s media that the Afghans and Indians agreed to provide/equip the Afghan National Army with heavy weapon. In his view the request was launched by ex-President Mr. Hamid Karzai during his Presidentship. It was not materialized and Indians refused to provide them. They gave many excuses and in the end, offered to Afghans that money will be provided by Indians while the arms will be purchased from Russians. The reason they gave behind this offer was that Afghan Army was using the Russian made weapons since long and the Afghan
Army is well aware of Russians Arms. They will also be able to get its spare parts maintenance from Russians. However, India will provide light weapons only. It is not known that whether Indians have provided them or not. Apparently Indians gave excuse that they don’t have heavy weapon in stocks or surplus weapon. The Pakistan’s media propagated that Ashraf Ghani has cancelled this arm deal in order to please Pakistan’s authorities. When Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai visited Kabul, he had a lunch with President
Ashraf Ghani. He particularly asked about this deal from President. The President did not reply instead he sent his media advisor Ajmal Obedi on Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai’s table.
Mr. Obedi sat with him during that lunch. Ajmal Obedi told that Afghanistan still have that agreement with India as they did not scrap it. Therefore, there is no fundamental change in Afghan policy regarding India. Although, due to this misconception, Pakistanis were very happy but sadly the things are quite the same. The faces are changed but the policies are same. (Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai. Personal communication on 5th September
2015).
5.9 Proxy War
191 Shafqat Mehmood opines that now there is a proxy war going onbetween Pakistan and
India in Afghanistan. Earlier, according to Indians, this proxy war was in Kashmir, Indian occupied, where Indians blame Pakistan for supporting Militants against Indians and sending fighters in Kashmir also. Now their view is that, if Pakistan can play an active role in Kashmir, why don’t they. (Shafqat Mehmood;Personal communication10-06-
2015)
Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema opines that USA is a super power while China is the 2nd largest economy. They have competition with each other but also supporting and co- operating. He said that he always maintained that China will never left Pakistan but not sure about Pakistan because they are very unpredictable. They can kill their own self.
Earlier, it was announced by American officials that all the American force will leave in
2014. But later on, nine thousand and some things are still there and they will keep them here and will never with drawn completely. In his opinion he added that they have gone out of the way to help Afghans, they will never leave. Second thing is that American presence in Afghanistan is still balancing factor. Proxy war is also going on. India is also interfering and Pakistan too. Americans will stay because Chinese are coming in mineral development sector. Afghanistan has huge deposit of Copper and Iron. China would also like to take benefit out of it. So the Americans are also watching very carefully. Earlier they announced 2012 then 2014 and now 2016. Actually they are extending their stay and they have plans to stay here. India has done very well in its own economy. Pakistan has political, economic, energy shortage, FATA and other problems. India would like that
Pakistan should be in problems. They will keep pressing Pakistan. One interpretation is that by firing on Line of Control they draw Pakistan’s attention towards indo-Pak border.
192 It means that Pakistan has taken some tropes from FATA operation and has to deploy on eastern border. The situation of Karachi is not satisfactory. Rangers are involved there.
Pakistan’s Politician doesn’t like the poster of Army chief Gen Raheel Sharif displayed on the roads of Karachi. Although people in Karachi are very happy that things are getting better shape. On the other hand, Pakistan Army Chief is openly saying that Army will even not spare the facilitator of terrorists. Dr Asim Hussein, ex-minister for petroleum during Pakistan People’ Party Government is under arrest due to these charges.
When he was arrested, Mr. Asif Ali Zardari also got worried. After the massive arrest of its leaders and workers in connection to military or terrorism, Mutheda Qaumma
Movement (MQM) is also worried. (Professor Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema. Personal communication on 17-09-2015
While commenting on Us-China proxy war, Rahim Ullah Yousafzai elaborated that Pakistan and India are not fighting US-China proxywar within Afghanistan. If India is working on Hajigak Iron ore mines then China has two major projects inside
Afghanistan. One of the projects is in Logger province and it is of Copper mines. It is worth $3 billion. Another is of oil and gas. But the Chinese have left due to the security situation. In fact, due to the worst security situation, any foreign investment there is impossible right now. These agreements of mining of copper, oil or Gas exploration were signed when the situations was somewhat better. Now the situation has worsened so much that ‘no go areas’ have increased. He further added that he meet with Chinese quiet frequently. They are used to say that they have invested heavily in Afghanistan but yet they have to earn a single dollar from Afghanistan. (Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai. Personal communication on 5th September 2015)
193 Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema believes that the proxy war of India and Pakistan is going in
Afghanistan as both will serve their interests. He says that if Afghanistan reaches at any point of re-conciliation with Taliban, this component will reduce the danger for Pakistan.
They will be much more nationalistic but they will also control the Indians in many ways.
They will do it once they stabilize. Then hopefully, they will develop their nationalistic foreign policy. Ashraf Ghani has spent his major part of life in USA while servicing at different positions. Definitely he will also serve them. Moreover, American will ensure that China will not cross the limits of influence in the area that’s why they are developing relations with Indians. (Professor Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema. Personal communication on 17-
09-2015)
Regarding, proxy war of India and Pakistan, Khalid Mehmood is of the view that it depends upon the situation in Afghanistan. If the situation turns in a way that
Afghanistan become a stabilized country and Afghan government realizes the validity of having good relations with its immediate neighbor, Pakistan, then there will be no proxy war. But if the situation get worsen in Afghanistan, although there is still a question mark that what will happen in Afghanistan. If there is a breakdown of governance and security situation got worsened and if India tries to fish into the trouble waters of Afghanistan and
Afghanistan government doesn’t check the desire of Indians government then there is probability of proxy war. It will not be like direct intervention but proxy. However the neighboring countries must try to stabilize Afghanistan. Pakistan as well as other neighboring countries effort like India, Iran, and Central Asia should be of course, to stabilize Afghanistan. International community as a whole should continue their support to build their political institutions, security forces and economic institutions. If all
194 pipelines are now choked and India is very aggressively continuing turmoil in
Afghanistan with the entire dependent situation then there is chance of proxy war.
(Khalid Mehmood; personal communication.6/9/2015)
Rahim Ullah Yousafzai affirmed that there is a competition between India and
Pakistan in Afghanistan but Pakistan have advantages for instance it has common borders with Afghanistan, Afghan economy depends upon Pakistan and almost all of the Afghan refugees stayed and lived here in Pakistan. At present there are approximately 30, 00,000
Afghan citizens, here in Pakistan. Pakistan, since independence, is providing transit trade facilities along with transit trade route facility. Pakistani and Afghans are of the same religion and shares the same way of living as cultural ties are very strong. They have common languages like Pashto and Persian. People to people ties are very strong.
Therefore, we don’t have people to people issues. But the governments have issues. The ruling elites in Afghanistan have no stakes in Pakistan government. They are already heavily financed by USA, Indians, Iran and others. Therefore, the Afghan government is least dependent on Pakistan. Moreover, the Afghan authorities believe that through
Taliban, Pakistan is trying to destabilize Afghanistan in order to end the rule of elites with the help of Taliban. Pakistan is worried. If Taliban of Afghanistan stood against
Pakistan then Pakistan will be in a fix. (Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai. Personal communication on 5th September 2015)
Rustam Shah Mehmund said that it is a popular notion that there is a proxy war going on between India and Pakistan in Afghanistan. It is very important that India and
Pakistan should mutually decide their policy viz-a-viz Afghanistan. He said that he always tell them that the policy of Pakistan and India can’t be mutually exclusive within
195 Afghanistan. The government of Afghanistan will not allow the governments of Pakistan and India to use their land against the other country as they are fed up of war, fighting and bloodshed. Now they want to repair, reconstruct and build their country. Moreover, it is possible that both these countries maintain good relations with Afghanistan politically. Both can also maintain cultural relations with Afghanistan. Indian movies are among favorites of Afghans and Afghans cinemas exhibit them regularly and so on.
(Rustam shah Mehmund; personal communication. 2/9/2016)
5.10 Security Situation in Afghanistan:
Haroon Rashid and Arshaad Mehmood, while commenting on prevailing situation in Afghanistan where Afghan government is not in the position to maintain law and order in the country and allied forces have to leave due to umber of reasons describe that now co-operation between both the countries is increasing. Durand Line issue has not been highlighted in recent months. When they were asked about the nature of Indo-Afghan relations, they said that both are sovereign countries. They have every right to develop good relations with each other. India and China had business about $80 billion and soon it will be $100 billion. Pakistan has no objection on their relations, whether they have with Iran and Afghanistan or with anyone else. But when Afghanistan let India to use its land against Pakistan, this is quiet objectionable. After all, India used Afghan land in order to support Taliban’s and Bloch insurgents against Pakistan. Although Taliban’s were initially believed to be the brain child of Pakistan but at later stages Indians started
196 supporting them (Personal communication; Haroon Rashid and Arshaad Mehmood.
6/5/2015)
Lt. General Rtd. Asad Durrani said that as far as the future of Indo-Afghan relations is concerned, he don’t see any strong bond in future. He said that presently,
Indians were nervous after Ashraf Ghani took office. However after 11th August 2015 event when President Ashraf Ghani used strong words against Pakistan, brought some sort of relaxation for Indians and they are a little but relax and happy. Down deep in their hearts, they know that it does not last long. They know that most people in Afghanistan will not stay long as after USA with drawl, there will be nothing left. The government structure in Afghanistan is not sustainable. Soon after Americans with drawl, it will collapse. Then comes the Taliban factor. If Taliban re-capture Afghanistan, then Indians will have no place there. The people in the government will also run away and their first refuge point will be obviously Pakistan. Again India is nervous about any possible hostile situation as it is investing heavily in Afghanistan and obviously worries about it. (Lt.
General Rtd. Asad Durrani:Personal Communication.9/9/201
Despite of heavy deployment of International forces, the security situation in
Afghanistan is not of at least up to satisfactory level. While discussing the prospects of investment in the country, Rahim Ullah Yousafzai told that in Ainak, copper mining area, in Logar province where Chinese are working, security situation is very bad. Many times rockets were fired there. Secondly there are archeological sites where evacuation/exploration is not allowed. Moreover there are land disputes within local residents. That why Chines have left the project area of oil or Gas exploration sites. Apart
197 from these, there are other problems also which creates security problems. Like MQM
(Mutheda Qaummi Movement) there are local parties. General Abdul Rasheed Dostum, a prominent leader of Northern Alliance is among them. They are extortionist. They asked for money from all whether they are Indians, Americans or Chinese. (Rahim Ullah
Yousafzai. Personal communication on 5th September 2015)
In this regard, Rahim Ullah Yousafzai elaborated a development of its own kind.
He said that there are many security companies in Afghanistan and they have been established in recent years. Most of them are owned by government officials. When
General Abdul Rahim Wardak was defense minister, his son owned a security company.
The defense minister gave contract to the company of his son in order to secure
Americans. But this company was paying to Taliban’s those dollars which came to
Afghanistan for fighting with Taliban’s. However, due to extreme extortionist activities, people are avoiding investment into Afghanistan. (Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai. Personal communication on 5th September 2015)
198 Conclusion
This chapter presented the perception of Pakistan’s political elites regarding economic and security implication of Indo Afghan relation for Pakistan in post 9/11 era.
In modern world, strategic interests and economic interests are interdependent and closely connected. Development work by India in Afghanistan and Pakistan’s investment has been discussed in this chapter. Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India’s Gas pipeline project(TAPI), Army Public School Incident, legal and illegal movement of people on Pak-Afghan border, transit trade, strategic depth doctrine, surveillance at Pak-
Afghan border, MFN Status for India, cross border terrorism, role of intelligence agencies of India, proxy war of China, USA, India, Pakistan in Afghanistan was discussed at length.
199 Chapter – 6
Challenges and Options for Pakistan in Post 9/11 Era, due to Indo-Afghan Relations
After discussing the details of Indo-Afghan relations and perception of Pakistan’s political elites regarding their mutual relation, the research will analyze the present challenges for Pakistan due to Indo-Afghan relations and options available for Pakistan.
In this scenario,in order to meet these challenges, there are numerous options available as well. These will be discussed at length.
According to Pakistan’s political elites, Pakistan is facing many challenges due to
Indo-Afghan relations. These challenges can be grouped into political, social, economic and strategic challenges.
6.1 Political Challenges and Options available for Pakistan:
Indo-Pak subcontinent was a geographical unit and separated from Afghanistan by the mountain ranges of Hindu-Kush. However, since time immemorial, both the regions were mutually interactive. They had political, relations with each other. India was divided into small independent states as was Afghanistan. Different warriors from Central
Asia and Europe selected the route of Afghanistan for invading Indian sub-continent. In recent past, this area was the center of attention of major powers; earlier in late 19thcentury of Czarist Russia and British Empire and later on in 20th century of Union of
Soviets Socialist Republics and United States of America. However, Afghanistan remained a buffer state for most of the time. Pakistan shares almost 2430 Km. long border with Afghanistan. Since the inception of Pakistan, Afghanistan’s attitude with
Pakistan has been unfriendly for most of the period. On the other hand, India, despite of being a distant neighbor, developed cordial relations with Afghanistan. Due to this Indo-
Afghan nexus, Pakistan has to face many political challenges in Afghanistan. These challenges will be discussed in detail under the following sub headings. They are;
a) Demarcation of boundary between Pakistan and Afghanistan:
The area where nowadays, Pakistan and Afghanistan are situated was once the center of rivalry of two empires of 19th century. They were Czarist Russia and British
Empire. Afghanistan was declared as buffer zone. In the last quarter of 19th century,
British Government demarcated the boundaries of its Indian Empire. The border with
Afghanistan was demarcated in 1882 through Durand line agreement (Jadoon, 2003).
Along with this, Northern and Western Frontiers of Afghanistan with Russia and Persia were also demarcated by the Britishers. Russia was disintegrated in late 20th century and its Soviets got Independence. The Central Asian States of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are successor-in-interest of former Soviet Union Russia. The Central Asian States have never raised any objections to these agreements. Similarly, boundary with Sistan (Iran) was also demarcated by the Britishers. Pakistan is also successor-in-interest of Great
Britain and it is bound to honor all those agreements which are related to its geographic territory. Afghanistan is also bound to the agreement according to the International law.
203 After signing of Durand Line Agreement in 1882, it was asserted under various Treaties in 1894, 1895, 1905, 1919, 1921 and 1930 (Jadoon, 2003). At the time of partition, the issue of demarcation of boundary was raised by Afghan government but British government reminded them of the Durand line Agreement of 1882. Infact demarcation of the boundary and Pakhtoonistan issue were the core reasons of hostile attitude of two geographically adjacent Muslim states.In recent past, both the countries, Pakistan and
Afghanistan are engaged in War on Terror; therefore, this issue has not been focused or mentioned at any level. However, both the countries must revise this agreement. The boundary of these two countries should be demarcated scientifically. It will definitely give a boost to the cordial relations between them.
b) Rise of ISIS and Daesh; Security Challenge for the Region:
While interviewing by special correspondence of Economic Times India, Mr.
Dipamjan Roy, Afghan Deputy Foreign minister Hekmat Karzai said that the
Talibanmilitants and other warring groups are shifting their loyalties to the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and Daesh. Now, they are after those resources which were once used by Taliban; natural Gas and narcotics. He said that ISIS is getting hold in three provinces of Afghanistan namely Nangarhar, Zabul and Farah and their emergence is a security challenge for the whole region (Choudary, 2015). Keeping in view, the already poor and deteriorating situation of security in the region, this statement is alarming as
Pakistan is already struggling with Talibans and terrorism. If as the Afghan defense minister has quoted, ISIS is presently showing its presence in Afghanistan, then it is definitely an alarming situation and security challenge for Pakistan army and civil establishment as well. It is appropriate at this alarming point that both Afghanistan and
204 Pakistan should co-operate with each other against a common enemy i.e. Daesh /ISIS.
Recent border clashes and harsh statements from Afghan leadership have only served the purpose of those powers which are against a lasting peace in the region. Therefore the top military as well as political leadership of both countries must join hand in order to meet the challenges posed by newly emerging terrorist groups. Pakistan being professionally and technically superior can devise better field strategy in these joint operations. Without whole hearted co-operation from both sides, nothing can be achieved.
Blame Game; Negative image of Pakistan among Afghan Masses:
Pakistan is the immediate neighbor of Afghanistan. Any unrest in Afghanistan has always strong and lasting impact on Pakistan. The large influx of population after
Russian invasion towards Pakistan brought a lot of problems for Pakistan in the years to come. They were economic, social, political, security and many others. But, despite of all these, Pakistan hosted the Afghan refugees for decades. A generation has been born, educated and raised in Pakistan. But the modern propaganda tactics are so powerful that an ordinary Afghan talks about Pakistan in negative terms. The perception of Pakistan’s political elites in this context is that wrong policies of our successive governments and
Intelligence Agencies had built this impression that Pakistanis should be blamed for every wrong doing in Afghanistan. This is the same attitude; Pakistan is facing vis-à-vis
India where each and every problem is believed to be originated in Pakistan. Any bomb blast, any suicide attack or any other terrorist activity is always blamed on Pakistan.
When the ex-President of Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai was in the office, he was famous for visiting India again and again. During each of his visit, he always issued statements to please Indian government. Situation is more or less same and not much changed now.
205 In order to improve the situation, Pakistan has many options. The first and foremost is to develop close relations with masses following the example of India. India is investing less in Afghanistan but whatever it is investing is directly on the people. It is investing in social sector where common man can be benifited from the result. Secondly,
Pakistan must not give impression of dictating them. Afghans often offend this attitude.
Afghanistan is an independent country and their interests are connected with Pakistan.
Ultimately, they will realize the sincerity of Pakistan. Other countries have interests in
Afghanistan but Pakistan has stakes. Borders cannot be changed. Two neighbors share a lot of things and they are inseparatable. Instead of fighting and blaming each other relations should be normalize. In the modern political world, centuries old rivals are engaged in business and other activities with each other. For instance, United Kingdom and France were old rivals but they are now getting benefit of mutual trade and expertise.
Likewise China and India have a great volume of mutual trade and business. By following this pattern of international politics, both the countries can create peaceful and healthy environment.
c) Building Soft Image by India;
India had developed friendly relations with Afghanistan right from the beginning.
In 1952, a friendship treaty between two countries was signed. The successive governments of Afghanistan followed the friendly policy towards India. India was an allied of Union of Soviets Socialist Republics (USSR) while Afghan ruling political party was under the influence of USSR therefore two countries developed friendly ties.
206 After 1979 USSR invasion, India continued its Afghan government supporting policy. During the Taliban period from 1996 to 2002, the relations were at stand still level. However, after Taliban’s departure, India started massive developmental activities in Afghanistan. It is the fifth big donor in Afghanistan as spending $ 2 billion. Indian investment is like of Chinese as it is physically visible. It has built an enormous building for Afghan parliament, invested in mining sector, health sector, education, commerce, communication, transportation, and energy sector and so on.
India is present in Afghanistan right from its inception in 1947. Gradually it has invested in different developmental sector. India’s investment is meager as compare to the size of its economy but it has developed soft image for Indians. India provided biscuits for school children under World Food Programme. They built Indra Gandhi
Children Hospital in Kabul which is still the largest children hospital in the country. India electrified the Kabul city after a long time. Last but not the least, they built and furnished the new Afghan parliament building. These entire projects are not huge in financial terms but their impact is long lasting on masses. Ordinary Afghan, who are raised and educated in any part of the world, considers Indians their friends. For Pakistan, Indian favoring people on two sides of its boundary namely Indo-Pak and Pak-Afghan borders are definitely a big challenge.India is also able to project a considerable amount of soft power.
India is a multi-ethnic, democratic society with a thriving economy and vibrant media. Its Bollywood movie industryportrays glamorous lifestyles and extravagant events and these cultural products haveextensively penetrated the Afghan market; Grassrootlevel
Indian aid projects have also helped to make a favorable image of Indiaamong ordinary
207 Afghans. It seems that many of its aid programs are deliberately high-profile, such as theconstruction of a new parliament building, the donation of planes to Ariana Afghan
Airlines,and the construction of a large pediatric hospital in Kabul named after Indira
Gandhi. Inaddition to education and training programs and the construction of vocational schools andclinics, Delhi has delivered humanitarian assistance and offered free medical care for morethan 350,000 Afghans in a period of less than two years.61 These and other reconstruction initiativeshave provided India with a ready-made conduit through which to win Afghans’ heartsand minds (Gundu, Schaffer, 2008). In part for this purpose, Delhi has spread its development aid across Afghanistanto ensure that all regional and ethnic groups in that country have benefit from Indianlargesse.(India’s Role in Afghanistan.
2011).
In order to meet this challenge, Pakistan has to revise its policies, political as well as strategic. Pakistan was investing on certain groups and factions within Afghan political set up. Pakistan being anti–Russia never supported the communist groups of Afghanistan.
Likewise, as discussed earlier, a well work out plan in this context will normalize the relations.
d) Hegemonic Designs of India in the Region:
India is a big country. Its, population, area, resources economy, army and potentials, all are compelling it to play a big brother role in the region. Indian economy growth rate remained above seven in the last decade. Due to this, it is in search of new markets to sell consumer goods. The small countries are open for Indian goods. But due to its huge size of economy, India is trying since long to reach the Central Asian
208 Republics and Afghanistan through land route of Pakistan. This is shortest and cheapest available route. Pakistan is the only hurdle in between. Indians are using stick and carrot policy with Pakistan while Pakistan is not even ready to grant MFN status to India.
India has border disputes with both China and Pakistan. At the moment, both are co-operating with each other which is not bearable by India. The proposed CPEC project is facing many security threats from India backed nationalist organizations. India has disputes with almost all of its neighbors; especially those which didn’t accept the hegemony of India are not acceptable for India. India didn’t accept the universal truth that neighbors cannot be change. The trade relations, the intra-countries traveling facilities, issuance of visa to the artists of each other countries, India always creates hurdles. After BJP Government in office, the situation became worst. In order to achieve a global image, Indian government is crossing every limit. This is right of every state to safeguard its interests but others have rights also. While pursuing for ones rights, there are some duties as well viz-a-viz other countries. This Indian attitude is posing a challenge to Pakistan’s interests in the region.
To meet this challenge, there are many options available for Pakistan. War and hostile relations cannot solve the problem. Ultimately both the countries have to come towards dialogue. India has all the rights to develop good relations with Afghanistan. But it must not interfere in the internal issues of other regional countries. Pakistan is continuously complaining against Indian interference in Karachi and Balochistan. Even
Pakistan now strongly declares Pakistani Talibans as the prodigy of India. Well planned and systematically conducted terrorist activities, with the help of intelligence support attacks on air force basis and destroying strategically important assets could not be the
209 activity of illiterate/partially literate students of seminaries. Pakistan should involve some neutral third party in this issue, where all the allegations and solid proofs should be presented. The solution could only be sought out in this way.
e) Opening of Indian consulates in Pakistan-Afghanistan Border
Areas:
Issue of Indian consulates in Afghanistan is controversial. Indian stand is that there are only four consulates of India and they are in Heart, Mazar-e-Sharif, Jalalabad and Qandahar. Pakistan’s stand is that these consulates are the centers for terrorism activities in Pakistan generally and in Baluchistan particularly. Indians obviously denied
Pakistan stance as there are 12 or 13 consulates. Indians say that these are just information centers. (Professor Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema: personal communication). Infact these consulates are used for developing contacts with locals as well. For instance the former Russia provided twelve airplanes to Afghanistan in 1971. In return they were allowed to open consulates in Qandahar, Mazar-e-Sharif, Herat and Ghazni. Ultimately, these consulates provided opportunity to Russians to build closer relations and contacts with the local Afghan population. It was a long term planning (Matin-ud-din-1985. P. 31)
Pakistan takes these consulates as the Indian spy centers and challenge for themselves.
All these consulates are situated at/near the Pak-Afghan border. The border is not secure.
Its porous nature facilitates those who want to cross it. The surveillance is obviously possible at legal crossing points which are few. According to Pakistan’s authorities these consulates are field control room and center for terrorist activities in Pakistan.
210 Pakistan has many options available if it wants to solve this issue. First of all, if
Afghanistan wants to develop friendly relations with Pakistan, it must not allow any other country to use its land against Pakistan. Every country has the right to form relations with the others but it must not be harmful for any third country. India has consulates in Iran as well. Pakistan cannot ask for its closing. This is the obligation of Iran to maintain the balance by keeping eye on the activities of Indian Consulates there. If they are involved in any suspicious activity, not only Indians but Iran is also responsible for that. Likewise in Afghanistan, consulates are not an issue but the activities going on in these consulates are alarming.
f) Proxy Wars between Pakistan and India; China and America:
Many analysts believe that there are two kinds of proxy wars going on in
Afghanistan i.e. Pakistan and India’s proxy war and China and America’s proxy war.
Some are of the view that India and Pakistan are actually fighting the proxy war of
America and China. As mentioned earlier, India has always very friendly and cordial relations with Russia. For that reason, India remained in anti-China block. Infact, China is the only super power of the region which is a potential threat for India. India has fought two wars with China and they still have border disputes. On the other hand, USA consider China as a challenge to its supremacy in the world .The pace of development of
China is quite alarming for India and America as well. Since very early days of Pakistan,
Pakistan and China developed friendly relations. They claim that their mutual friendship is deeper than the oceans and higher than the Himalayas. These notions and developments are obviously not acceptable for Americans as well as Indians. Recent
211 developments in the area clearly define the sides and alliances. That’s why it is said that these countries namely Pakistan and India are fighting the proxy war of China and
America.
6.2 Millitary and Security Challenges:
Many military and security challenges are also there. They are as follows;
a) Doctrine of Strategic Depth:
This doctrine of strategic depth is a sound concept and it has many dimensions; military, geographic, economic, political and social. Afghanistan was once granted the status of buffer zone between Czarist Russia and British Empire to create strategic depth for both of the Empires by the major super powers of the time i.e. British and Russia.
When British left in 1947, Pakistan inherited this strategic depth in Afghanistan. Since the inception of Pakistan, its military have always focused on the strategic depth doctrine against India. Therefore, they have looked towards Afghanistan and Central Asian
Republics for this reason. This doctrine was the sole reason due to which Pakistan decided to assist Afghanistan against the Russian invasion, during Zia-ul-Haq’s regime.
This war ended and Russians left and so do the Americans. Pakistan lost its doctrine, immediately after USSR occupation of Afghanistan (Durrani.2010). Pakistan was left with 3 million refugees, thousands of foreign funded madrassas, Kalashnikov culture and the drugs. In later years, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif extended the same policy. Pakistan recognized Taliban regime in May 1997 and maintained cordial relations with the
212 Taliban. After 9/11 the situation became more complicated. Now Pakistan has to fight
against the same militants who were once trained by its forces and allies.
Another matter of concern is increasing influence of India in Afghanistan. As Dr
A.Z Hilali writes:
“According to Michael Scheuer (former chief of CIA), policy makers of Pakistan
believe that India’s expensive, extensive and growing Afghan presence is a direct and
even existential threat to Pakistan and after the incident of 9/11 this area of strategic
depth has been transformed into a second military frontier with India”( Amber. 2011)
Ex-Army chief General Ashfaq Pervaiz kayani said that Pakistan wants a strategic depth in Afghanistan but it doesn’t want to control it (Editorial, 2010). So this statement of General Kayani was taken as Pakistan’s wish to have a favorable government in
Afghanistan. The nature of Indo-Pakistan relations is that there is continuous violation of borders by Indians. On the other hand India is effectively pursuing its long term policy of
‘strategic encirclement’ of Pakistan. India’s Strategic co-operation Treaty with
Afghanistan has allowed it to be the part of the strategic alliance with Afghanistan. In this way, it is encircling Pakistan from western side along with eastern border. The failure/non-existence of strategic depth anymore is obviously a challenge for Pakistan. It definitely forces Pakistan to keep its western border secure so that avoid the situation of being in the nutcracker.
213 If Indian influence in Afghanistan increases then India will be on eastern and western borders simultaneously therefore to avoid this situation is a challenge for
Pakistan in Afghanistan.
b) Cross Border Terrorism and Cross Border Movement:
Almost 2430 km long border of Pakistan and Afghanistan is unique of its own kind. The porous nature of the border has further made the situation complicated, wherein it is estimated that on average 50, 000 persons cross the border daily, either legally or illegally. This easy access has made it a haven for militants fighting at both side of the border against their respective enemies (Afghan Taliban against NATO troops and
Pakistani Taliban against Pakistani security forces). Drug, arms smugglers and criminals operating across the border also move freely into the both states through the unprotected border. Thus cross border security and movement management has emerged as a prime challenge for both the states.
c) Role of Indian Intelligence Agency RAW:
Since long, Pakistan is making hue and cry regarding Indian involvement in
Baluchistan and Karachi. Pakistan has presented its case at different levels. But no country responded in favor of Pakistan. Now it has presented solid proofs to the supporters of India that India is involve in the terrorist activities in Baluchistan and
Karachi. These proofs were presented at different forums. For instance, Pakistan’s
Foreign Affairs Advisor, presented a comprehensive report with proofs in the session of
214 There is no two opinions that intelligence Agencies are formed to safeguard the interests of nations but these activities must not directed towards the neighbours in order to de-stabilized them. Neighbours can’t be changed and India should learn this lesson now. Developing good relation is a reciprocal strategy. Only then, these nations can play positive role in order to maintain peace in the region.
d) Taliban Factor:
Taliban, after fighting with the super power and its allies, has been trained in war tactics. Most part of Afghanistan is still under their control. The government in Kabul is not capable enough to control the country. Afghan National Army’s capacity is not satisfactory. Everyday hundreds of soldiers left Army along with their equipment and ammunition and are joining Taliban quarters. Their power is inceasing and gradually they are capturing more areas. They are inflicting more loses to the ISAF forces. That’s why their withdrawl is delayed as Afghans are not able to control them.
Major roads are under Taliban control. They even bargain with Afghan government officials for the provision of security to the troops and in return, they demand
Dollars. Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai told that Afghan Defense Minister’s son was owner of a security agency which was paying those Dollars to Taliban which Americans gave them for to fight with Taliban. Therefore, along with drugs and extortion money, Taliban are earning from road taxes. One of the major ring road which connected major cities of
Afghanistan, Delaram-Zaranj Highway is under Taliban control, they didn’t interfere during its construction but soon after its completion, they control it.
215 Serious efforts are required to solve this issue. The Taliban are representing sizeable part of Afghan society. They have power. They must be given due share in the politics. Only then their guriella activities could be controlled. It will ultimately lead to the peace and stability in the country of Afghanistan, as well as in the region
e) Proposed withdrawal of ISAAF forces:
After 9/11, USA invaded Afghanistan in search of Osama Bin Laden and Al-
Qaida as they were accused of 9/11incident. Since 2002, America and ISSAF forces are in Afghanistan. Osama has been killed but Americans are still in Afghanistan. The
Americans are planning to leave but when? The date has been announced several times but postponed accordingly. Pakistan’s concern is that what will happen after withdrawal of ISAAF forces. Afghan National Force is not yet prepared to manage the threat of
Taliban. Afghanistan is completely dependent on foreign aid. In case of withdrawal, the flow of foreign aid will definitely be slow down. The war torn country still need a lot of investment in human capital as well as in material after nearly four decades of war. It is even not clear that what will be the status of American forces. Many countries of the region as well as outside the region are keen to enter in Afghanistan and get profit.
Pakistan wants its share but its arch rival India is also present there. India and Pakistan are favoring certain groups in the pursuit of influence there in Afghanistan. Pakistan has been favoring Taliban while Northern Alliance is openly supported by India.
There is another fear shared by the people of Pakistan, Afghanistan and the rest of the world and that is the expected outbreak of civil war after US withdrawal between different warring groups in Afghanistan. The possibility of a civil war in post-withdrawl
216 of ISAAF increases many fold when these groups are financially, politically and morally supported by outside forces for their own vested interests. This point has been already proven valid as when in the past, America left Afghanistan soon after the withdrawl of
Russian forces after Geneva Accord in1988. Within no time, due to the lack of establish institutions and infrastructure, coalition government of Mujahedeen collapsed and civil war broke out. Therefore, this is one of the major challenges.
The best strategy in order to handle this issue is a well worked out plan where all the stake holders get their due share in polity. Only then, each of the group will let others to rule. Infact, Afghan society is a tribal society. It is the general attitude of these people that might is right. Democracy has no roots in Afghanistan. Only that person has the authority to rule who can prove himselfpowerful . All the Presidential elections held so far were controversial. Therefore the strategy of peace talks with certain groups and killing others in drone is the best option at the moment. However, ISAAF Forces must not leave Afghanistan in haste. Foreign funding must be channelized towards long term planning of infrastructure and building of institutions. Local Afghans at all levels must be involved in developmental activities whole heartedly. Only then the peace will be lasting one.
6.3 Economic Challenges and available options:
In the post 9/11 scenario, due to the Indo-Afghan nexus, Pakistan has to face many challenges in the economic field. These economic challenges and their options will be discussed in detail under following sub headings;
a. MFN status by Pakistan to India; still a dream for Indians.
217 By MFN status means that under World Trade Organization Agreements, countries cannot normally discriminate between their trading partners. If a country grant someone a special favor as lowering tariffs, it has to grant so to all. It is called MFN status (World Trade Organization). India has granted MFN status to Pakistan in 2006 but
Pakistan is reluctant to do so. Pakistan’s point of view is that Indian economy is more developed and huge. It will be harmful for local industries. Moreover, once granted MFN status to India, means that India will be able to transport goods to Afghanistan as well. In this way the Afghan markets will be open for India. Pakistan did not want to lose its leverage of border sharing with Afghanistan. Pakistan has issue list of 300 items for low tariffs import. India wants more and pressurizing Pakistan for the same. It is therefore, a major challenge for Pakistan.
b) Afghan Transit Trade:
Afghanistan is a land locked country and Pakistan is being providing the transit trade facilities to Afghanistan. In 1965, a formal agreement was signed between the government of Pakistan and the government of Afghanistan for a systematic transit trade namely Afghanistan- Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA). Since then many changes were happened in pattern or means of trade. The APTTA was revised in 2011 and it was effective from July 2011(PILDAT). This transit trade facility is often misused by certain elements. For instance, illegal trade and smuggling is major issue. It is badly damaging certain industries of Pakistan. On the other hand, USA and India are interested that Pakistan should allow to India somewhat same facility. Pakistan has allowed the
Afghan goods transportation to India but not more than that. Recently Mr. Ashraf Ghani,
218 the Afghan President, demanded that Pakistan should allow India to export its products to
India.
Pakistan is already bearing many financial losses in the form of duties and revenues. During an inquiry, it was revealed in July 2011 that about 28900 commercial
Afghan Trade containers were missing while travelling to Afghanistan from Karachi seaport.They caused Rs.55 billion loss in revenue to the government of Pakistan
(BuisnesseRecorder. 2011). Apart from that many things which are not required in
Afghanistan, through this route are coming through transit trade certain things like black tea, tyres, polyester fiber etc. These smuggled things being duty free, are cheap and obviously a loss to the government exchequer.
Another issue regarding Afghan transit trade is that India is trying its level best to get the same status. In that way, it will be able to export vegetable or fruits to
Afghanistan which will ultimately limited the prospects of the export of Pakistani food and vegetable items. Due to the energy crisis in Pakistan, prices are comparatively high in
Pakistan. While agricultural produce is cheaper in India, therefore, Pakistan is facing another challenge in this regard.
c) Gawadar Seaports versus Chahbahar Seaport:
Afghanistan is a land locked country. It is heavily dependent on Pakistani seaport,
Karachi since the inception of Pakistan. After the signing of Afghanistan Pakistan Transit
Trade Agreement of 1965, Pakistan allowed Afghanistan to use Karachi sea-port for transit trade. Since then Afghans are using this facility.
Afghanistan foreign trade is depending on Pakistan. After the fall of Taliban led government, India was much interested to access Afghanistan and Central Asian
219 Republics markets. Indian economy is a huge economy and obviously looking for new markets. However, Pakistan always denied Indian access to Afghan via Pakistan’s land route through Wahga to Torkhum. Latest Afghan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement of
2011 only granted permission of Afghan export to India and did not allowed Indian export back to Afghanistan. Therefore, India devised a solution that it approached Iran directly. India and Iran signed an agreement in 2003 to execute a project of developing a seaport in Chahbahar, Iranian Baluchistan. It is just 75 km away from Gawadar port of
Pakistan which is funded and operated by Chinese. At the launching ceremony of
Pakistan, China Economic Corridor Media Forum on 17 November 2015 senator
Mushahid Hussein told Iran that India funded Chahbahar port would be seen by Pakistan as a security threat. He reminded Iran that due to the pressure of USA, India announced to part ways with Iran- Pakistan-India gas pipeline project in 2006 while it joined TAIPI projected due to western support. Pakistan stood with Iran in that difficult time (Ibrar,
2015).
If the Chahbahar port becomes operational then India will have an easy access to
Afghanistan and Central Asian markets. The dependence of these areas on Pakistan will be over. Pakistan economy will be deprived of a huge market. The army will be denied of its strategic depth. Despite of all these apprehensions of Pakistan, India has built a 270 km Delaram-Zaranj ring road which connects all the important Afghan cities to Iran. A link road from Zaranj in the province of Nimroz to Iran has been built by Iran. However, this road is nowadays under Taliban control. Indians are asking their government about legitimacy of the heavy Indian investment in Afghanistan (Kumar, 2011). That is in the
220 use of Taliban, not the ordinary Afghans. Any how the Chahbahar is posing a challenge for Pakistan’s sea port.
Russia intends to construct a road rail link from Kazakhstan through
Turkmenistan to warm water terminal at the Iranian Chahbahar Port. India, too, partnered this project, which is officially named as the International North-South Transport
Corridor. (Cornell, 2014)
d) Pak-China Economic Corridor: Security of Pak China Economic
Corridor:
China and Pakistan are enjoying friendly relationssince very beginning. Pakistan was the first country which recognized the modern China in 1951 and supported its
United Nations membership. During Sino-Indian wars, Pakistan supported Chin’s official stand. Likewise during Paki-Indian wars of 1965 and 1971, Chinese supported Pakistan openly. Since Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto era, every Pakistani head of government preferred to strengthen the friendly ties with China. Due to the rivalry of China and USA, now China and USA are openly supporting Pakistan and India. Americans are supporting Indians in
Nuclear and other important fields; China has planned a huge project which will be mutually beneficial for both the nations.
In May 2013, an agreement between government of Pakistan and China were signed in order to establish the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to connect
Kashghar, a city of western China, close to Pakistan border, with Gawadar seaport, situated in Baluchistan, Pakistan(Ministry of Planning development and Reforms; 2015).
The less developed parts of China will be benefitted along with around $ 46 billion
221 investment in Pakistan on roads and energy sector (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor,
2016). China planned to connect the Chinese part to Central Asia so Pakistan will get another access point to Central Asia Republics along with Afghan route. However, right from the top to bottom, Chinese officials are very much concerned about security situation in Pakistan (Dawn. 2013). Almost 23% of the total reported terrorist attacks in
Baluchistan were made on this economic corridor trade route (Sial, 2014. p.24).
Therefore, Pakistan has established a special force of 6000 men with 4000 reserve police and 1000 Frontier Constabulary force for protection of CPEC in Baluchistan (Rana,
2014) for the same.It is, therefore, a major challenge for Pakistan military. It is being setting up a special security force (nine battalions) comprising of an estimated 12,000 personnel, who would be inducted into the special division to be headed by a serving
Major General(Gishkori, 2015).
e) Water management Issues:
Pakistan has the world’s largest contiguous irrigation system catering to 45.2 million acres (Khan, 2005.p.3). The irrigation system of Pakistan is mainly comprises of a single river basin of the Indus and its water regulation through storages and regulators
(Aziz, 2013). A study done by the Irrigation Department of NWFP states that the limited irrigated agriculture in the northern part of the province is heavily dependent on the waters of river Kabul (NWFP Irrigation Department, 2009). In the south of the province
157,000 acres are flood irrigated by the Gomal River which has its headwaters in Ghazni in Afghanistan(Aziz, 2013).Pakistan is likely to increase the capacity of irrigation works on river Kurram which rises in the Afghan province of Paktia(Aziz, 2009). The NWFP
222 and tribal areas, with a combined population of 24 million, depend on four Afghan rivers which flow into the Indus; namely, the Kabul, Kurram, Kaitu and the Gomal.
Furthermore, it may be noted that the water of the Kabul River includes that of the river
Chitral, which joins it near Jalalabad, and provides about 2.5 MAF of water annually – this is the contribution by Pakistan to the river Kabul’s flow(Aziz, 2009).
Pakistan should talk with Afghanistan at equal level as Afghanistan is neither in a position to negotiate with Pakistan at equal basis nor it has any strong institutions. The ultimate expectations are that if Afghanistan agreed on any water management treaty with
Pakistan right now, most probably in future when it will be a stable country, it will took stand that it had signed agreement under pressure of Pakistan as it did after signing
Durand Line Agreement. If any progress is to be achieved, Pakistan must exhibit statesmanship. Pakistan and Afghanistan should exchange data about the additional water needed for the proposed new projects on River Kabul.
f) Heavy Indian Investment in different sectors in Afghanistan:
Afghanistan is rich in mineral resources but due to a number of reasons, no systematic mining has been started so far. However, now many countries are coming forward for this purpose. For instance China is working in copper mining area Ainak.
Similarly India is working in Hajigak iron ore mines. Obviously, the iron are has to be refined enough to turn into iron. For that purpose it has to be transported to India.
Therefore it is a complex project where India is already building road, Delaram-Zaranj high way. It is a ring road which connects all major cites of Afghanistan to the Chahbahar sea port of Iron. India is planning to build a railway track parallel to Delaram- Zaranj
223 highway. These long term heavy investments by India, clearly depicts the intention of
India that they want to stay in Afghanistan. Moreover this stay will be of long term. It is definitely a big challenge for Pakistan.
6.4 Social Challenges;
Pakistan has to face many social challenges in Afghanistan due to Indo-Afghan relations.
They are as follows:
a) Expatriation of Afghan Refugees:
Pakistan is the only country which provided refuge to millions of Afghans after
Russian invasion. As compared to other countries of the region, there were no restrictions imposed on Afghans regarding movement within Pakistan. Therefore, the Afghan refugees didn’t confine to the premises of Refugee camps. They get settled at the places of their choice in Pakistan. Even they got National Identity Cards as proof of their
Pakistani citizen ship. The common language and religion supported them. As there was already very little difference in culture and way of living, Afghans easily adjusted in the local population of KPK and Balochistan. Inter marriages are common within Afghan refugees and local Pukhtoon. Gradually Afghans started buying properties and setting businesses in various areas. Afghan children started attending government run schools and colleges in cities. After 9/11, the whole world was looking at Pakistan. As Pakistan was the sole supporter of Taliban, it was expected that Pakistan will help America in the
War against Terrorism. It did as per requirement but gradually Pakistan’s Tribal areas turned into safe havens for terrorists. It was estimated that that about three to four million
Afghan Refugees were living in Pakistan. Voluntary re-patriation programme was started
224 with the help of United Nation High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) and other donor agencies. Those who voluntarily opt for re-patriation was provided with food and sustenance allowance. But the living condition is still poor in Afghanistan. In the absence of basic amenities, it is difficult to survive. Political unrest and continuous fighting between different warring groups didn’t allow the civil population to lead a normal life.
Foreign aid for major development projects only can’t change the life of common
Afghan. Afghan society is comparatively under developed in all aspects. Moreover, due to the long span of war, country is deprived of even basic amenities of life. Therefore, despite of many re-patriation programmes, major portion of Afghan population is settled in Pakistan.
They definitely want to live a comfortable life. In Afghanistan there is no infrastructure. Taliban are getting momentum again. In this situation, Pakistan is not able to host these refugees any more as the foreign funding for refugees has been stopped.
Now the flow of funds is towards Afghanistan for development projects in American forces controlled areas only.
The major bone of contention is the involvement of Afghan based terrorist organizations/groups in terrorist activities across Pakistan. After every incident, the other end of the activity of the terrorists reveal a link with Afghan based terrorist group.
Pakistan government earnestly wants to send back them but the law and order situation
b) Communication Gap between Pakistan and Afghanistan:
Pakistan and Afghanistan apart from a lot of commonalities shares a long border but somehow both the countries misperceived each other. Except in70’s, during Sardar
225 Daud regime, relations of two countries remained hostile throughout. India, Afghanistan and USSR, all three had signed friendship treaties with each other. On the other hand
Pakistan was the signatory of Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) was originally known as the Baghdad Pact or the Middle East Treaty Organization (METO). It was formed in 1955 by Pakistan, Turkey, Iraq and Iran. It was dissolved in 1979.
(Burke;1988). Pakistan had also joined SENTO. These two treaties were considered anti-
Communist. Although Indian claim was of non-alignment but India and Afghanistan both had friendly relations politically as well as militarily. In this context, both countries considered Pakistan as pro-American and capitalist. In the bi-polar world, almost all the countries of the world were the part of cold war. Foreign aid was also dependent on ideological affiliation. Afghanistan was being funded by the countries of both the blocks but Russian share was dominant. So do India’s presence. After Russian invasion in
Afghanistan, India supported the Babrak Karmal government. Afghan political elites fashionably condemn Pakistan.
India had invested on creating soft image and presenting Pakistan as enemy.
YouTube is full of videos, posted by Indian nationals, where Afghan students studying in
India, comments on Pakistan negatively. The successive governments of Afghanistan also added their share by continuing blame game. Every major event reported from
Afghanistan is reported by some European News agency. Pakistan has no bureau office of any Media group in Afghanistan while India has invested in Media as well. The
Afghan News Channels are full of hatred for Pakistan. The flights from India brought thousands of people in Afghanistan daily but Pakistan has not even daily flights for
Afghanistan. India has arranged a mechanism where Indian and Afghan delegates from
226 all walks of life visited each other country regularly. These contacts at masses level have lasting impacts. This hostile scenario is a big challenge for Pakistan.
In order to fill this gap Pakistan has several options. They could be grouped as governmental level and at private level. At governmental level, Pakistan officials from specific ministries should visit each other’s country as goodwill gesture. The
Parliamentarian and their committees for instance foreign Affairs Committee of Senate and National Assembly can visit Afghanistan when they are not in the session issues.
Joint Forum could be formed to discuss the bi-lateral interest’s issues. Pakistan developed sector of Information Technology can help Afghanistan in building Information
Technology set-up in the country. The already established number of educational scholarships for Afghan students could be increased. The youth of Afghan could be provided with skill teaching. The major newspaper should publish special edition from each other countries. These steps will clear mis-understandings and will brought people of two countries together despite of the effort of non-friendly countries.
c) The Interference of Regional and Extra Regional Powers
Afghanistan is at the crossroads of civilization. One of the major and foremost challenges for Pakistan is the interference of regional and extra regional powers in the pursuit of their interests both political and economic. Despite the friction between
Pakistan and other countries represented at the Summit, NATO Secretary General Anders
Fogh Rasmussen acknowledged that the alliance “can’t solve the problems in
Afghanistan without a positive engagement of Pakistan” (Daily times, 2012)
227 These above mentioned options and challenges could be summarized in the following chart;
Challenges Options Comprehensive Treaty for Water Water management Issues management Sharing of Information and joint Cross border Terrorism Operations Limitations for any outsider entity by Role of Indian Intelligence Agencies Afghan government
Negative image of Pakistan Build soft image Should develop friendly ties with all/must Pakistan’s Image of mentor of Taliban invest on people not on favorites
Illegal Crossing of Pak-Afghan Border Should fix fence and increase surveillance
Communication Gap Increase contacts at all levels Stop blame game and go for joint Blame Game Investigation Afghan Refugees Should be sent back
Conclusion
This chapter discussed the challenges and option for Pakistan in post 9/11 era, due to the Indo-Afghan relations. Pakistan has political, social, economic, and strategic challenges in this regard and likewise many options are available in this regard.
228 In political challenges are Pakistan’s negative image and India’s soft image, proxy wars in Afghanistan, strategic depth doctrine and proposed with drawl of international security forces from Afghanistan.
In economic challenges, the MFN status for India, Afghan transit trade, Pak-China economic corridor, Chahbahar and Gawadar sea port and water management issues are included.
In social challenges, the topics under discussion are Afghan refugees and their re- patriation issues, communication gap between Pakistan and Afghanistan has been discussed in detail. These challenges and their available options are the part of this chapter.
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Conclusion
Afghanistan has been an important country for the super powers of its times. The invaders from Europe and Central Asia opted for the land route of Afghanistan to enter into Sub-Continent from Alexander the great up to the Mughals. Afghanistan was the ultimate passage way for the invaders.In the 19th century,when British Empire captured indo-Pak Sub-Continent, Afghanistan became a buffer state between Czarist Russia and
British Empire.
British demarcated the boulevard of Afghanistan with India through Durand line in Afghanistan in 1882. This agreement was re-affirmed by British and Afghan governments at several occasions. In 1919, this agreement was endorsed by Anglo-
Afghan Treaty. In 1947, the British government relinquished the charge of the British
232 India and divided it into two independent states on 14th and 15th August namely Pakistan and India. Pakistan was geographically contiguous with Afghanistan but the issue of
Durand line kept the two nations at distance.Afghanistan was the only country that opposed the admission of Pakistan in United Nations in 1947.
From the very beginning, India adopted the policy doctrine that enemy of my enemy is my friend. Therefore, India and Afghanistan signed a friendship Treaty in 1952.
On the other hand, USSR was investing in Afghanistan. India, despite of being an active member of Non-Aligned Movement, was a close ally of Union of Soviets Socialist
Republics, while Pakistan had joined the other super power, United States of America as
Pakistan signed pacts of SETO and CENTO in50’s. Therefore, Pakistan India and
Afghanistan became a part of cold war of two super powers, USSR and USA.
Afghanistan was politically not stable since early 7o’s when Afghanistan’s king Zahir
Shah was over thrown in 1972 by the Prime Minister Daud. Daud, later on became
President. Afghanistan was not stable since then. However, on the Christmas Eve, in
1979, USSR invaded Afghanistan and imposed pro-communist government of Babrak
Karmal. He was later on replaced by Dr. Najib Ullah. Afghanistan became a pro-Russian country where communist ideology was imposed on Afghans. The masses of Afghanistan started resistance movement which was supported by USA, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan.
Earlier Pakistan and later on USA openly supported them with arms, ammunition and logistic support. Due to the unrest and war in the country, around 3 to 5 million Afghans migrated to Pakistan and Iran. After Russian withdrawal through Geneva Accord, in
1988, USA also left Afghanistan which soon indulged into civil war. Afterwards, Taliban movement started in 1992 and they took control of government in Kabul in 1996. Taliban
233 government was recognized by very few countries due to their religious/fundamental nature, Pakistan was among them. However, during Taliban period, India Afghan relations were at lowest level.
After9/11 terrorist attack in America, the whole scenario changed. As in 2001,
USA led ISAF forces invaded Kabul and this brought an end to the government of
Taliban. Hamid Karzai was selected as interim President of Afghanistan in 2002, during
Bon conference in Germany. He served for twelve years in the office of President. During
Karzai period, relation between India and Afghanistan were very cordial and freindly.
Indian embassy in Afghanistan was re-opened after the closure during Taliban era.
President Hamid Karzai visited India quiet frequently. Indian government supported
Afghan government in number of fields.
On the other hand, if we look back in the history of the relations of India and
Afghanistan, we came to know that as the dominant majority of India is following old
Hinduism, except for a brief period of the rule of Buddhist leaders, Indo-Pak subcontinent was mostly ruled by Hindu monarchs.After the arrival of Muslims from
Central Asia and Afghanistan, the balance of power shifted in the favor of Muslims.
Therefore, Muslims ruled sub-continent for almost one thousand years. British Empire brought an end to the Muslim rule in 1858. For next 90 years, Britishers were rulers. The
Hindu majority was again deprived of its rule. When British decided to quit, it divided the sub-continent into two independent states; Pakistan and India. Muslims were happy but not the Hindu majority which was feeling that they were cheated by division. This feeling guided the nature of Indo-Pakistan relationship in the years to come.
234 Simultaneously, as mentioned earlier, Afghanistan was having bitternessregarding
Pakistan, due to the demarcation of boundary line between Pakistan and Afghanistanas
Afghanistan claimed its right over all Pashtoo speaking areas of proposed Pakistan. So, both the hostile neighbors of Pakistan joined hands with each other against Pakistan.
After 9/11, when ISAF forces entered Afghanistan and overthrown Taliban government, aid was started flowing from around the world to Afghanistan for re- construction and building. In this scenario, India emerged as one of the big donors. It pledged $ 2 billion for different projects in Afghanistan. India invested in infrastructure building by constructing 270 km Delaram-Zaranj Highway in the province of Nimroz.
This ring road connects all major cities of Afghanistan with Iranian sea port, Chahbahar.
In order to reduce the dependence of Afghanistan on Pakistan’s sea port Karachi for
Transit Trade, India built the Chahbahar sea port in Iran. India and Afghanistan signed a
Strategic Partnership Agreement in 2012 for close co-operation in training and equipping
Afghan Army. India is also investing in power supply, mining and water resources development in Afghanistan.
In social sector, Indian investment is varied from granting scholarship to Afghan students to establish skill building institutes in Afghanistan. India has invested in the projects which are physically visible. Moreover, Indian investment is direct. There are no expenses on any other disbursing/implementation authority so they are in direct contact with Afghans. The outcome is building of a soft image of India in Afghanistan.Therefore,
Indian policies of its successive government’s viz-a-viz Afghanistan were guided by anomaly with Pakistan.This was the brief overview of Afghan history regarding Indo-
Afghan relations.
235 According to the theory of Neo-realism, the interest of state is important as the security dilemma compelled the modern state to protect its interest. Therefore, the moral values remain unconcerned. The interest of state is foremost. What India is doing is its right.
Due to the size of its economy, India is in search of markets where it can sell its products.
Now we will discuss the perception of Pakistan’s political elites regarding Indo-
Afghan relations and its implication for Pakistan in post 9/11 era. Their perceptions are varied. However, there is consensus on certain issues. All of them agreed that neighbor can’t be change so it is clear that cordial relations with neighbors are inevitable.
According to the perception of the political elites of Pakistan, the doctrine of ‘strategic depth’ is the motivating factor for the interest of Pakistan into Afghan affairs. Though, they might have their updated idea of this depth, but in the view of this researcher based on the studies and interviews, this “strategic depth’ policy is becoming a vivid idea as it was core stone of Pakistan’s foreign policy before 9/11 and a by-product of Soviet invasion in Afghanistan. This idea was closer to Pakistan’s past policy of exerting influence in Afghanistan in order to have safe heaven in case of war with eastern neighbor, India. But the time has taught to Pakistan’s policy makers that it cannot make
Pakistan comfortable and will not be as such acceptable for the Afghanistan security establishment.Now Pakistan has no upper edge in Afghanistan. Whereas, the new state policy of Pakistan is of no interference in Afghanistan as the dynamics of the regions has got changed.
Not only for Afghanistan only but Pakistan also provides strategic depth for any invasion from Central Asian Republics to Afghanistan. In the case of Russian invasion in 1979, it was also proved as millions of Afghans left their homes and fled to Pakistan. The Afghan
236 freedom fighters were supported by Pakistan and only the strong support of Pakistan made it possible for Afghans to defeat Super Power USSR. Therefore, it is inevitable for both Pakistan and Afghanistan to develop friendly relations with each other.
On the other hand India was also having strategic designs in Afghanistan. But the difference is that both invested on different horses. Initially, Pakistan was supporting Gul
Badin Hikmatyar but he turns into a warlord only. Then Pakistan pinned its hopes with
Taliban but later on played major role in their toppled down by ISAF. In post 9/11 era, where earlier Hamid Karzai and now Ashraf Ghani is head of state, Kabul always accused Pakistan of cross border terrorism by supporting Afghan Taliban. Same is the case with Pakistan where Kabul. After the operation Zarb-e-Azab, the top most leadership of Pakistani Taliban including chief Mullah Fazal Ullah cross over to
Afghanistan and living their openly. Soon after the election ofAfghan President Ashraf
Ghani, he visited Pakistan in 2014. Both countries agreed not to allow the cross border terrorism.
Pakistan always tried to normalize the relations with Afghanistan. The major example is hosting of millions of Afghan Refugees byPakistan for decades. Being a
Muslim country, Pakistan always promoted friendly relations with other Muslim countries. The case of Afghanistan is unique. The majority of Afghans share same language and culture along with religion with Pakistan particularly inhabitants of western province of Khyber Pukhtoon Khawa and Baluchistan, Pakistan’s provinces adjacent to
Afghanistan. Journalist Salim Safi gave a new dimension to the relationship of Pakistan and Afghanistan as not of brothers but of cousins. The cousins or Tarboor as they are called in Pashtoo language might fight over each and every issue with each other but
237 when they have to face any outsider as enemy, both the cousins get united. He talked about the reaction of Afghanistan during 1965 and 1971 war, when Afghanistan remained neutral and in this way supported Pakistan against an outsider.
If we look at the India’s increasing involvement in Afghanistan, it is clear that after the adoption of Pakistan’s‘no interference, no favorites’ policy, India is setting its foothold in
Afghanistan more firmly. It has a strong economic dimension as well. Afghanistan is a land locked country and it totally depends on Pakistan for its foreign trade. Pakistan and
Afghanistn have signed two agreements in this context. First one is AfghanTransit Trade
Agreement, 1965 and recently Afghan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement. In Afghanistan due to unrest for decades, very little is no industrial infrastructure exist. The tarrifs are low in Afghanistan. This gave opportunity to smugglers to smuggle these things to
Pakistan where duties are high in order to protect the local produce. This illegal trade brought heavy losses to Pakistan.
Another relevent issue is that India wants land route for its export to Afghanistan. For
Pakistan, Afghanistan is a big market. It generates economic activity for border provinces of Khyber Pakhtoon Khawa and Baluchistan. Pakistan is currently providing facility to
Afghan goods to reach Wahga border through Pakistan land route but refused same for
Indians. Indians have developed alternative route of Chahbahr in Iran in order to get the access in the Afghan market. This route will reduce the dependence of Afghanistan on
Pakistan along with creating new opportunities for India in Central Asian Republics.
Afghanistan can have good relation with all the countries inthe worldas long as there is not any intrusion in Pakistan soverignity. Its soil must notbe used against Pakistan security and interest. The Pakistan establishment is also cognizant of the fact thatthey
238 have to learn from India’sstrategy of development in terms of winning heartsand minds of the people of Afghanistan. Pakistan may provide hardware and infrastructure support to Afghanistan, Indians, helping in more constructive way and are going out in rural
Pashtun areas as they are providing them books, medicines and hospitals items (India’s
Role in Afghanistan, 2012). Itaffects the people most and creates goodwill. If Pakistan wants cordial relations with the people of Afghanistan, it must follow the same route.
The elites interviewed for this study, agreed that Pakistan cannot afford hostile neighbors at its two borders at a time that is India at eastern side and Afghanistan at western side.
The researcher found that there is a realization among Pakistan civil-military establishment that Pakistan and Afghanistan both requires regional partnerships for the development. That can lead the region to stability. Though presently, India is contributing in Afghanistan in development more than Pakistan but India have an issue of direct border sharing with Afghanistan, therefore it cannot have very broader influence in
Afghanistan. Pakistan security establishment is trying to counter that influence by making a good will relaitonship with the Afghan leadership.
Most of the elite’sperception wasfound optimistic about Pakistan and Afghanistan’s future political and security stability. Though this was not the case a few years back, but now militrayestablishmeent want good relations with Afghanistan, though the security and Afghanistan supported terrorism still impedes the cordial relations. Pakistan has point of learning and which is being realized by the Paksitanmilitry establishment that if India is winning hearts and mind of the Afghans, so can Pakisan, nevertheless fact remains that
Paksitan has contributed much and suffered more than any coutnry due to the war in
239 Afghanistan. Pakistan can be a provider of hardware and developoment in infrastructure sector ofAfghanistan. In order to have cordial relations, Pakistan has to follow the same developmental path with the people of Afghanistan.
Beside the Indian factor, there is strong perception that there is a greater potential of destroying the relations between Pakistan and Afghanistandue to the pores border between the two countrieswhich requires a permentat solution.
Among many bitter points of confrontation between Afghanistan and Pakistan, Water management issue is prominent. India has already offered aid to Afghans for building 12 small dams on River Kabul but Afghanistan has turned down this offer which is a favorable move for Pakistan. Three rivers of Pakistan originate from Afghanistan. At the moment, Pakistan and Afghanistan has no issue regarding water distribution and management but it will be highlighted in future. It is important to save the fertile agricultural lands of Pakistan’s province Khyber Pakhtoon Khawa,valley of Peshawar,
Charsadda and Nowshera from water scarcity. Low land riverine has its own rights. A third party facilitated negotiation for Indus Basin Water Treaty type of water management treaty is the need of hour. Rahim-Ullah Yousaf Zai told that River Kabul is nothing but a small broke in Kabul city. Later on when other rivers joins it, it gets its name and volume. Due to the long period of war, water management and distribution system in Afghanistan is at its worst level and in poor condition. Droughts for prolong periods, poor rainfall and seasonal floods have destroyed the agriculture of Afghanistan.
When Afghanistan will be stabilized hopefully in near future, it will use its maximum water resources. In that case Pakistan will be in a situation of fix. Therefore as a pre- emptive measure, Pakistan should work in this direction.
240 Pakistan and India have many un-resolved issues and the major one is Indian held
Kashmir. This issuee has hampered the developing of friendly relationship of two neighbours as it is a bone of contention in this region. India held Kashmir is important for
Pakistan due to a number of reasons. But the major one is that all four tributaries of River
Indus in Punjab are generated from Indian held Kashmir. It provides the upper edge of controlling power to India to regulate water for Pakistan. Likewise, three of the major rivers which are tributary of River Indus in Khyber Pukhtoon Khawa (KPK) came from
Afghanistan. They are River Kabul, River Kunhar and River Gomal. Their water is the main source of irrigation in the valley of Peshawar and Charsadda. So friendly relations are must in this scenario.
Although the tasks assigned to the USA led ISAF forces are not achieved yet but due to the internal as well as external pressures, government of USA, time by time, announces the expected with drawl date of its forces from Afghanistan. That was earlier 2014, then
2016 and now of 2018. Pakistan’s political elites are worried about the withdrawl of
American forces. It reminds them of the hasty with drawl of USA from Afghanistan in
1989, after which civil war broke out among different warring sectors of Afghanistan.
Absence of any centralized authority will ultimately lead to more sufferings for common
Afghan people. Presence of USA forces provides strategic support to the existing government of Afghanistan. Afghan National forces are not capable enough to manage the security situation in Afghanistan single handedly. Number of deserted Afghan
National Forces personal is increasing on alarming pace. Therefore, it is the requirement that USA led ISAF forces must keep their minimum presence in Afghanistan to help the
Afghan government to maintain/establish peace in the country.
241 Though, Pakistan’s policy in the past was favoring certain warring groups in
Afghanistan, it was because of the doctrine of strategic depth. Pakistan’s political elites unanimously agreed that the policy of favoring such groups like Gul Badin Hikmatyar have ultimately brought harm to Pakistan. After Geneva Accord, 1988, all the political parties of Afghanistan were brought into political process and government was formed.
At that time, all the political parties of Afghanistan had their offices/Head offices in
Peshawar. Later on, after breachof promises and pledges by the Afghan political leaders, civil war broke out in Afghanistan between different groups. It resulted into the emergence of Taliban. Generally, it is supposed that Taliban were the brain child of
Pakistan’s Army Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) wing. Pakistan recognized the government of Taliban headed by Mullah Omer but after 9/11, though due to the change in the international scenario of security, Pakistan government joined the war against terror with USA. However, but all these policies created negative image for Pakistan within Afghanistan.
India was also supporting the anti-group of Taliban, Northern Alliance. They provided logistic support to Northern Alliance through their Farkhor Air Base in
Tajikistan adjacent to Tajikistan-Afghanistan border. Many former Afghan communist leaders and their families are settled in India. India has also invested on the welfare projects for instance Indra Gandhi Children Health Institute of Kabul is the only hospital having state of the art technology/ facilities of treatment inside Afghanistan.
Pakistan has also invested in road building and educational institutions setup within Afghanistan. Moreover, approximately three million Afghan Refugees, who are living in Pakistan, wether registered or unregistered were primarily beneficiary of
242 existing health, education, accommodation and food resources of Pakistan. Therefore, share of Pakistan in the care and rehabilitation of Afghans is larger than life.
Unfortunately, the image of Pakistan is still negative among Afghans. According to the perception of our political elites, undue interference of Pakistan into Afghan affairs is one of the reasons of these hostilities. Afghans are getting aid from all over the world. But the aid/grant by Indian in Afghanistan is a concern for Pakistan as it bought influene for
Indian in Afghnaistan. On the other hand Afghans are of the view that if India is helping
Afghans and developing their countries poor war torn infrastructure, Pakistan must not oppose it. Rather they dislike it and it ultimately implants a negative image of Pakistan in the minds of Afghans.
The mistrust between Pakistan and Afghanistan prevails on high level that as soon as any terrorist activity happens in Pakistan, everybody starts pointing fingers to Afghans.
Likewise, any terrorist attack/activity occurs in Afghanistan, Pakistan is blamed. This blame game ultimately kept two neighboring countries far apart from each other. This attitude at both sides helps third party to make them believe that Pakistan or Afghanistan is a real threat to their security. Indians gradually got foothold in Afghanistan and remained a beneficiary of this blame game.
For the time being, the relations got normal but according to the Pakistan’s political elites, the normalcy of relations is superficial. The circumspection and mistrust at masses level are actual problems. The gesture of friendship should filter down unto the grass root level. Presidents, Prime Ministers and high official’s visits of each other country and shaking hands are not enough. This goodwill must be shared by all, from people to
243 people. In recent past, many incidents of cross border firing were reported. The hostility exists at lower level however; serious efforts in this regard are required.
It is a general practice nowadays that after any terrorist activity in Pakistan, Afghans living in surrounding areas will be blamed and police arrest them. Afghans are not confined to the Afghan refugee’s camps any more. Policies of Pakistan Government were comparatively lenient regarding settlement of Afghans outside camps. No check mechanism was developed or imposed on them. The result is that Afghan Refugees are gradually has been assimilating in Pakistani society. Common religion, common culture, dress code, language, tribes; all these factors are favorable. Infact, throughout the history, whenever any law and order situation aroused in Afghanistan, people opted for migration to comparatively settled areas of Peshawar, Quetta and Dera Ismail Khan. The Pukhtoons at both sides of borders are identical and nobody can differentiate between Pukhtoons of
Afghanistan and Pukhtoons of Pakistan. Pakistan’s policy was lenient in early 80’s as it let the Afghan refugees enter in Pakistan in bulk. These refugees brought their livestock with them which immediately dried up the pastures and grass lands around refugee camps. Then the feuds with local population on these petty issues get started. Pakistan set refugee camps in KPK and Baluchistan but as the restrictions were not imposed, soon unskilled Afghans became the part of labor class as cheap labor. Those who were well- off set business all over Pakistan. Especially transport business for goods transportation is particularly in the hands of Afghans all over Pakistan. These Afghans have obtained
Pakistan’s National Identity documents. Government of Pakistan along with the collaboration of United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) is working on
244 voluntary re-patriation programme of Afghan Refugees where every Refuge is provided with necessary household items and substance allowance for voluntary repatriation.
But most of these refugees return back from illegal crossing passages on Pakistan-Afghan border. The question is that why they should leave a relatively peaceful area where they have at least job and basic facilities. In Afghanistan, the situation is not clear yet. In many provinces, active war is going on. In these circumstances if government of Pakistan push them back to Afghanistan then there will be only two options for them either these
Afghans will join terrorist groups for heavy salaries or start growing poppy for easy profitable earnings. Therefore, a well worked out plan with proper management and arrangement, keeping in view the future needs of Afghans is the need of the hour.
As India is visibly present in Afghanistan, it is supporting certain groups. The major anti-
Afghan Government group, Taliban is also divided into Afghan Taliban and the Tehreek
Taliban Pakistan. Both the groups are allegedly involved in terrorist activities in each other’s country. In major terrorist acts in Pakistan, Tehreek Taliban Pakistan was nominated. Its leadership was controlling these terrorists from tribal areas of Pakistan.
However, when Pakistan Army started operation against terrorists in tribal agencies, these terrorists fled to Afghanistan where according to Rahim Ullah Yousaf Zai, are freely roaming. The reason behind this is that the intelligence agency of Afghanistan
NDS and Indian Intelligence Agency Raw has close links with each other. In fact RAW was involved in training of NDS personal.
Therefore they have close links with each other. Pakistan government due to this reason blamed India for terrorist activities in Pakistan. But in Army Public School Peshawar’s incident or Wahga Border, fingers were always pointed towards Indian intelligence
245 Agencies. Indians do the same. But as a matter of fact, both countries have brought harm to their own self. China and India have border disputes but they are increasing their mutual trade volume every year likewise many European countries had serious border disputes in the past but they joined European Union for the sake of their citizen’s wellbeing.
Regional Organizations like European Union, ASEAN, GCC, African Union, Arab
League, all are building economies of their particular regions collectively. Pakistan, India and Afghanistan all three are the members of South Asian Association for Regional co- operation (SAARC). But due to the India’s hegemonic role, it is not as effective as its founder ex-president of Bangladesh Gen Zia-Ur-Rehman proposed.However, the platform of SAARC is the best option at the moment.
People of Afghanistan have suffered a lot. Majority of the population has migrated to the neighboring Pakistan or other countries of the world. Intelligentsia has already left. Those who are living there are those who have either no other option or getting economic benefits out of it like warlords and poppy growers. Very few are living in Afghanistan out of their love for this country. Now Pakistan and India must realize that unrest in
Afghanistan will have trickledown effect on the region. If Afghanistan remains a safe haven for terrorists, it will be equally harmful for Pakistan and India. Indian held
Kashmir is a sensitive place for India as it often blame that like Taliban, the Kashmiri insurgents have links with Afghanistan. Therefore peace and stability in Afghanistan will pay to the neighbors as well. India has already invested in Afghanistan in mining sector in Hajigak Iron ore mines. The heavy amount of investment will only reap fruit when the desired profit could be achieved.
246 A stable Afghanistan is in the interest of every country of the region. Pakistan and India, instead of fighting a proxy in Afghanistan, should join hands to help Afghanistan. Its intelligentsia should come back. Its doctors, engineers, professors, researchers who studied in foreign funded institutions of Afghanistan, have settled down in their donor countries and are living luxurious comfortable life. This is their right to enjoy but God help those who help themselves. They should go back to their country and start building institutions. They should make it very obvious to their donor countries that giving aid and spending its major part on the distribution network is not the optimum use of available resources. Politicians and warlords are corrupt. They are not fair with the people. In this situation, it is better to adopt a modern development approach that is to assign each province to a donor country where they are held responsible for developing infrastructure, means of communication, local government set up, and industrial development with the help of available resources and educational institutions. The world is worried about Afghanistan as it is full of minerals and natural resources. However, peace and stability is pre-requisite to get benefit of these resources.
Due to its geographic and strategic location, Afghanistan was always granted huge sum of financial aid in all sectors of economy. For instance, the three major elite educational institutions of Kabul; Lyceum Esteqlal and AEFE were French funded while Amani High
School was German funded. Their medium of instruction was French and German respectively. Obviously, those who study there, preferred the donor countries where they were able to adjust easily. Anyhow, these donations ultimately increased the number of educated in the society.
247 Most importantly, due to the continuous war for more than four decades, the top leadership is missing. Leaders must be visionary and should be able to foresee the future prospects and problems. Unless and until foreign forces are in Afghanistan, they will not let any independent mind Afghan to be at some powerful position, like in the office of
President. As mentioned earlier, educated professionals and skilled workers immigrated to Europe and America to secure their better future. Rest are in Pakistan somehow living in refugee camps and also settled in urban areas. No single political party is fortunate enough to get the political support from Afghan masses. During war against USSR
Afghan leaders were very active politically while living in Peshawar or Quetta. Now they are not active at all. Although Afghan refugees also cast their votes in Presidential elections of Afghanistan but they are not part of any political party.
It is earnestly required that Afghan people should be politically aware whether living inside Afghanistan or in outside world, they must be aware of their rights. They are not able to select the right person. It is their right to select the right man not the man selected by the occupant forces for them to rubber stamp his election. The elected leader should re-unite the Afghans scattered in all over the world. All those countries which are interested in the development could support Afghans with consultation, providing work force and financial aid.
Afghanistan should realize the importance of its immediate neighbors. Despite of helping
Afghanistan in many ways, Pakistan authorities believe that on Afghan soil, Indian consulates, its forces, its intelligence, all are being used by India against Pakistan.
Pakistan’s stand is that it has no objection regarding Indian development work in
Afghanistan but the collaboration of India and Afghanistan intelligence Agencies against
248 Pakistanconcerns it. Pakistan’s stand is that, Afghanistan must not let any other country use its land against any of its neighbors. Indian consulates in the Pak-Afghan border adjacent areas are particularly centers of suspicious activities. India insists that four are consulates and rests are just information centers. Pakistan didn’t accept this clarificatiotion. This sort of mistrust is great hindrance because it is most important thing for developing friendly relations. Peaceful nations prosper and all the stakeholders of the region’s collective-will bring peace, stability and prosperity for the region.
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Interviews Introduction of Interviewers
Arshaad Mehmood; He is the Executive Director of Center for Peace(CPDR) Development and Reforms based in Mirpur Azad Kashmir. CPDR is a Non GovernmentalOrganization based in Islamabad and Mirpur, Azad Jammu and Kashmir (on the Pakistani side). He has research background on India’s relations with its neighbors. In this connection he had visited Afghanistan and India several times. He has first hand knowledge of indo-Afghan relations. Mohammad Asad Durrani; Mohammad Asad Durrani is a retired three star rank, Lieutenant General of Pakistan Army and presently an intelligence commentator. He served in Army from 1959-1993. He is a former Director General Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), and former Director-General of the Pakistan Army's Military Intelligence.After retiring from the Army, he served as Pakistan's ambassador to Germany (1994–97) and Saudi Arabia (2000–02). Being part of Pakistan’s top most intelligenece Agencies, he has command on Pak-Afghan-Indian affairs.
Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema: ProfessorProfessorProfessorProfessor Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema is a Pakistani political scientist and ex-Professor of International Relations from Quaid-e- Azam University Islamabad.Currently he is working as Dean of the Contemporary
263 Studies, Faculty of the National Defense University of Pakistan. Dr. Cheema is also a scholar of international repute. His articles have regularly appeared both in National as well as International Academic Journals and he hasauthored many books and monographs. He remained part of back-channel diplomacy between Pakistan and India. He is expert on India and nuclear issues.
Haroon-ur-Rasheed; Haroon-ur-Rasheed is Pakistan's well known and eminent Urdu columnist. He has deep knowledge of Pakistan's politics and his views are considered authentic about different aspects of politics.He is author of Book "Fateh" which encompasses role of Major (Gen) Akhtar Abdul Rahman (Late) during Afghan war of Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence Agency (ISI).
Khalid MehmoodAmbassador (Retired); Khalid Mahmood is a former Ambassador of Pakistan to China, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and Mongolia. He has served as First Secretary and later as Deputy Permanent Representative of Pakistan to the United Nations, New York.Currently, Ambassador Khalid Mahmood is Chairman Board of Governors, Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI). He is well informed person regarding Pakistan’s foreign policy in the yester year’s as well current one.
Rahim Ullah Yousafzai: RahimullahYusufzai is a journalist and analyst based in Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtoon Khawa and northwest Pakistan. He is resident editor of daily The News International and political and security analyst for Geo TV. He has reported widely on the Afghan conflict and the situation in Pakistan's Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa province and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). He was the part of re- conciliation process with Pakistan based Taliban, initiated by prime minister Nawaz Sharif in 2013.
Rustam Shah Mehmund: Rustam Shah Mehmund is specialist of Afghanistan and Central Asian affairs and a renowned security analyst. He has served as High
264 Commissioner of Pakistan to Afghanistan and has held position of Chief Commissioner Afghan Refugees for around ten years. He is politically an office bearer of Pakistan Tehreek-e- Insaf. He is considered as one of the well aware and well versed on Pak- Afghan relations both at governmental and masses level. Print
Saleem Safi: Saleem Safi belongs to Khyber Pakhtoon Khawa, Pakistan. He is a print media as well as electronic media journalist, columnist, defense analyst and current affairs talk show anchor. He has hosted various current affairs programmes in different Pakistan‘s channels and is currently serving as the host of Geo News talk show Jirga. He has written columns for the Urdu daily Jang. Being a citizen fom Tribal area, he has indepth knowledge of Afghan affairs Vis-a Vis Pakistan.
Shafqat Mehmood; Shafqat Mehmood is a Pakistani Politician, columnist, and ex-civil servant who is now serving as the Member of Parliament of Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf from Lahore.He joined the Civil Service of Pakistan (District Management Group) in 1973 and served for about seventeen (17) years until he resigned in 1990 to join politics. During service while serving at various positions, he also served as Additional Commissioner Afghan Refugees Punjab. Being ex-civil servant, he has indepth knowledge of government affairs and policies regarding Afghan issue.
265 Annexure; A Treaty of Friendship
January 04, 1950
TREATY OF FRIENDSHIP BETWEEN THE GOVERNMENT OF INDIA AND THE ROYAL GOVERNMENT OF AFGHANISTAN
New Delhi, 4 January 1950
The Government of India and the Royal Government of Afghanistan recognising the ancient ties which have existed between the two countries for centuries and their mutual need for co-operation in strengthening and developing these ties and urged by their mutual desire to establish peace between the two countries with a view to the common benefit of their people and the development of their respective countries, wish to enter into a Treaty of Friendship with each other and to this end have appointed as their plenipotentiaries the following persons, viz..,
The Government of India:
The Honourable JAWAHARLAL NEHRU, Prime Minister and Minister for External Affairs.
The Royal Government of Afghanistan:
His Excellency NADJIBULLAH KHAN, Ambassador to India, who having examined each other's credentials and found them good and in due form have agreed as follows:
Article 1
266 The two Governments recognise and respect the independence and rights of each other.
Article 2
There shall be everlasting peace and friendship between the two Governments who will further strive to maintain and strengthen the cordial relations existing between the people of their respective countries.
Article 3
∑ In order to establish and maintain the relations referred to in Article 2, the parties agree to continue diplomatic relations with each other by means of representatives with all such suitable staff as the representatives may require for the due performance of their functions and to such extent as may be mutually- agreed on from time to time by the respective Governments. ∑ Such representatives and their agreed staff shall have such diplomatic privileges and immunities as are customarily granted by international law on a reciprocal basis: Provided that in no case shall these be less than those granted to persons of a similar status of any other State having diplomatic relations with either Government.
Article 4
The two Governments agree to appoint Consuls-General, Consuls, Vice Consuls and Consular Agents, who shall reside in towns, ports and other places in each other's territory as may be agreed to. Consuls-General, Consuls, Vice Consuls and Consular Agents shall be provided with exequaturs or other valid authorisation of their appointment. Such exequatur or other authorisation is liable to be withdrawn by the country which issued it, if considered necessary. The reasons for the withdrawal shall be indicated wherever possible. The persons mentioned above shall enjoy on a reciprocal basis all the rights, privileges, exemptions, and immunities that are accorded to persons of corresponding status of any other State.
Article 5
The two Governments agree that such trade agencies of either Government as already exist in the territories of the other shall be continued and others may be established in the future.
Article 6
The two Governments agree to strengthen and develop cultural ties between their respective countries and to assist in each other's industrial and agricultural progress.
Article 7
267 Any differences arising out of the interpretation or application of this Treaty shall be settled by negotiations through the ordinary diplomatic channels. If no settlement is arrived at within a reasonable time the matter shall be referred to arbitration in such manner as may be mutually agreed upon.
Article 8
The Treaty shall be subject to ratification and shall come into force from the date of the exchange of the instruments of ratification, which shall take place as soon as possible at New Delhi.
Article 9
This Treaty shall continue in force for five years after coming into force as provided in Article 8 and shall thereafter continue in force: Provided that after the said period of five years either Government may give to the other not less than six months' notice of its intention to terminate the Treaty, and on the expiry of the period of such notice the Treaty shall cease to be in force. 1950.
IN FAITH WHEREOF, the said Plenipotentiaries have signed the present Treaty in the English and Persian languages, both texts being equally authentic, and have affixed thereto their seals.
DONE in duplicate in New Delhi on the fourth day of January 1950
For the Government of India:
JAWAHARLAL NEHRU Prime Minister and Minister for External Affairs. In the presence of: I.S. CHOPRA
For the Royal Government of Afghanistan:
NADJIBULLAH Ambassador of Afghanistan to India In the presence of: A. KAYOUM.
Source: http://mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/6584/Treaty+of+Friendship
Annexure; B
268 Agreement on Strategic Partnershipbetween the Islamic Republic of Afghanistanand the Republic of India
The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the Republic of India, hereinafter referred to as “the Sides”, RECOGNISING the time-tested and friendly relationship between the two countries, underpinned by historical and cultural ties; EMPHASISING the fundamental and lasting importance of the Treaty of Friendship between the Government of India and the Royal Government of Afghanistan of 4 January 1950, and subsequent Agreements and Joint Statements; PROCEEDING from a desire to further strengthen their traditional and historical ties to mutual benefit; DRAWING upon their rich and fruitful tradition of cooperation in various fields since the establishment of their diplomatic relations; CONVINCED that the further comprehensive development of their bilateral ties would promote progress and prosperity in both states and the region as a whole; APPRECIATING the significant expansion of bilateral ties between the two countries and, in this context, the sincere and generous assistance that the Republic of India has provided to the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan over the past ten years; SEEKING to impart a long term commitment to their multifaceted bilateral relations and to actively develop them in political, development, economic, trade, scientific, technological, cultural and other fields in the years ahead, CONFIRMING their adherence to the common ideals of peace, democracy, rule of law, non-violence, human rights and fundamental freedoms, REAFFIRMING their commitment to international law, including to the purposes andprinciples of the United Nations Charter, Hereby proclaim the establishment of relations of Strategic Partnership, as laid out in the following paragraphs:
GENERAL PRINCIPLES
1. This Agreement, based on mutual understanding and long term trust between the Sides, envisages the elevation of the multifaceted ties between the two countries to higher levels, both in the bilateral field and in the international arena. 2. The Strategic Partnership between the Sides is based upon the principles of sovereignty, equality and territorial integrity of States, non-interference in their internal affairs, mutual respect and mutual benefit. 3. The Strategic Partnership between the Sides is not directed against any other State or group of States.
POLITICAL & SECURITY COOPERATION
1. The Sides agree to engage in close political cooperation and, in this respect, establish a
269 mechanism for regular bilateral political and Foreign Office consultations. Political consultations will be led by Foreign Ministries of both countries and include summit level consultations convened at least once a year.
2. The Sides agree to consult and cooperate at the United Nations and other international, regional and multilateral fora. Such cooperation is to be aimed at influencing decisionmakingin these fora in the interest of both countries. Cooperation at the UN and multilateral fora would include: (a) Joint initiatives on key regional and international issues; (b) Support for the reform and expansion of the United Nations Security Council, including a permanent seat for India in the Council.
3. The Sides agree to establish a Strategic Dialogue to provide a framework for cooperation in the area of national security. The Dialogue will be led by NSAs and involve regular consultations with the aim of intensifying mutual efforts towards strengthening regional peace and security.
4. Security cooperation between the Sides is intended to help enhance their respective and mutual efforts in the fight against international terrorism, organized crime, trafficking in narcotics, money laundering and so on.
5. India agrees to assist, as mutually determined, in the training, equipping and capacity building programmes for Afghan National Security Forces.
TRADE & ECONOMIC COOPERATION
1. The Sides commit to strengthening trade, economic, scientific and technological cooperation, as well as cooperation between other bodies of business and industry representatives, with a view to expanding trade and economic relations;
2. In the interest of Afghanistan’s sustainable development, and furthering economic interdependence between the two countries, the Sides commit to deepening and diversifying cooperation in sectors such as agriculture, rural development, mining, industry, energy, information technology, communications, transport, including civil aviation, and any other areas that the Sides may agree on.
3. The Sides agree to take effective measures to create a favourable environment to promote trade and investment. The measures shall include, among others: (a) Enhancing investment protection; (b) Simplifying customs and other procedures, [and] promoting the removal of non-tariff barriers, and gradually lowering tariff barriers; (c) Work towards the creation of air-cargo facilities for promotion of commercial exchange; (d) Cooperating in the areas of banking and finance, and improving credit and insurance facilities; and
270 (e) Enhancing cooperation and coordination at international trade, economic and financial bodies.
4. To achieve a sustained expansion of bilateral trade and economic ties with a long term perspective, the Sides will establish effective mechanisms for interaction between Indian and Afghan entities. Specific measures will include: (a) Encouraging contacts between regions/provinces in both countries with a view to promoting trade, economic and cultural cooperation; (b) Mandating the relevant bodies of countries to jointly explore the possibilities of regional trading arrangements with third countries; (c) Further enhancing the quality and international competitiveness of their goods by, promoting cooperation between the institutions of quality assurance and standardization, and on new technologies; and (d) Encouraging greater cooperation between the Chambers of Commerce and Industries of both countries.
5. Recognizing that regional economic cooperation is vital to the future economic prosperity of individual nations, the Sides agree to cooperate, both bilaterally and through regional organizations in promoting regional economic cooperation. Regional economic cooperation shall: (a) Envisage assisting Afghanistan emerge as a trade, transportation and energy hub connecting Central and South Asia and enabling free and more unfettered transport and transit linkages; (b) Focus on development of regional infrastructure projects; 4 (c) Help facilitate the integration of the Afghan economy within the South Asian and global economies by opening markets for Afghan and Indian products for mutual benefit; and (d) Strengthen regional cooperation under SAARC, of which both sides are members.
CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT AND EDUCATION
1. In the interest of Afghanistan’s long-term, sustainable development, and building on the existing generous aid programme offered by India to Afghanistan, India commits to continue its assistance to the development and capacity building efforts in Afghanistan. (a) Cooperation will, among other areas of focus, concentrate on the agriculture, mining and health sectors, reflecting Afghanistan’s priorities; and (b) India further commits to expand ongoing Small Development Projects (SDPs) for grass-root level development in the remote and rural areas.
2. The Sides agree to establish institutional linkages between their respective governments by encouraging cooperation between Ministries/agencies of two sides. India offers the experience of its own institutional, administrative, political and economic systems as references that Afghanistan can study and benefit from in the light of its own needs and realities.
271 3. As part of its highly successful annual scholarship programme, and the broader strategy of support to higher education for Afghanistan, India will continue to expand education and training opportunities in India through the ICCR and ITEC scholarships, and multilateralfundedprogrammes. (a) Responding to the requirements of Afghanistan, India will explore avenues to expand scholarships in medical, engineering and management institutes of India; and (b) The Sides will also encourage and facilitate annual student exchange programmes at the school and university levels.
4. As part of its capacity building support for the Afghan government, India will continue and expand technical, training and other capacity building support to the various departments in the three branches of government, including the Executive, Judiciary and the Parliament.
5. In response to Afghanistan’s need to strengthen its administration and governance at national and sub-national levels, India offers its experience of governance at the national, state, district and local body levels, and technical assistance in setting up a permanent, career-based civil service suitable for Afghan realities.
SOCIAL, CULTURAL, CIVIL SOCIETY & PROPLE-TO-PEOPLE RELATIONS
1. In pursuit of further expanding the people-to-people bonds that exist between the two countries, the Sides envisage greater exchanges between parliament, media, women, youth, sports, academic, cultural, intellectual and religious figures and bodies.
2. Through the India-Afghanistan Foundation, the Sides will seek to promote social and cultural ties, with a focus on arts, literature, poetry and so on, and further expand the exposure to each others’ cultural heritage and achievements.
3. The Sides will encourage and promote greater exchanges between media organizations in their respective countries, within the framework of an independent and free media.
4. Both Sides will work for the upliftment of women, their education and rights, and also for the poorer or weaker sections of their societies.
5. To encourage and expand interaction and legitimate movement of people between the two countries, the Sides agree to simplifying rules and procedures for travel by citizens of both countries. The Sides intend to: (a) Promote tourist exchanges and cooperation between tourist organizations in both countries; and (b) Encourage sister-city agreements between the cities/provinces/states of the two countries.
272 6. To facilitate legal cases involving nationals of one country in the other, the Sides will worktowards agreements on mutual legal assistance in civil and criminal matters.
7. To promote relations between civil societies and, in particular, enable intellectual exchanges, the Sides intend to establish India-Afghanistan Round Table consisting of eminent persons representing different fields.
8. Both Sides agree to promote cooperation and exchanges in the field of sports.
9. Both sides agree to share and learn from each others’ experience of the values and institutions of democracy, including the sharing, distribution and devolution of powers, relations between the Centre and States/Provinces, electoral reforms etc.
10. The Sides agree to establish parliament-to-parliament exchanges between the two countries by organizing visits of parliamentary delegations and establishing parliamentary friendship groups in the two countries.
IMPLEMENTATION MECHANISM
1. This Strategic Partnership would be implemented under the framework of a Partnership Council, which will be headed by the Foreign Ministers of both countries. The Council will convene annual meetings.
2. The Council will consist of separate Joint Working Groups on Political & Security Consultations, Trade and Economic Cooperation, Capacity Development & Education, and Social, Cultural and Civil Society, involving high level representatives from concerned Ministries/Authorities.
3. The existing dialogue mechanisms between the two sides will become part of the Council.
CONCLUSION
The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the Republic of India go forward in this partnership, re-asserting the fundamental and lasting spirit of the Treaty of Friendship between the Government of India and the Royal Government of Afghanistan of 04 January 1950, which states: “There shall be everlasting peace and friendship between the twoGovernments who will further strive to maintain and strengthen the cordial relations existing between the people of their respective countries.”
Signed on the 4th October 2011 at New Delhi in two originals, each in Hindi, Pashto, Dari and English languages.
273 President Prime Minister of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan of the Republic of India
Source; Agreement on strategic agreement between Pakistan Afghanistanhttp://mfa.gov.af/content/files/agreement%20on%20strategic%20partnership%20 between%20afghanistan%20and%20india%20-%20english.pdfOct 4, 2011.
274