4/1/2020 Forecasting power demand under the lockdown | Energy News

TIONS: MARCH 2020 NZ POISED TO BE GREEN HYDROGEN EXPORT LEADER: HARVARD TOUTOUWAI DRILLING RESULT MAY COME NEXT WEEK POWER S

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Recent comments Forecasting power demand under the lockdown Search What sort of car should I Mark Todoroff - Tue, 31 Mar 2020 buy? (13) Enter keywords... Search They're both real concerns, Power demand began to drop almost immediately after Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern I agree - embedded announced a four-week lockdown last week as employees began packing up and Featured content leaving the workplace. emissions are a problem Lockdown will minimise economic pain for ICEs too, of course - To quantify the effect of the lockdown on 's power demand, TESLA has Steve Rotherham there are a lot of... normalised our series to remove weather's effect on load. The Covid-19 recession has begun. With John Hancock The chart below shows the percentage decline in weather-corrected daily average the country entering a four-week What sort of car should I demand from the previous week. lockdown, there can be no doubt that the buy? (13) March and June quarters will register This is an interesting read significant economic contraction. about the carbon footprint Just one measure alone – school closures lasting of a EV battery for anyone four weeks – could cut 3 per cent from GDP, considering an EV. according to research put before the UK https://www.... Government. Eyes open Read more What sort of car should I buy? (13) Covid-19 links and resources I suspect it may be up for Pandemic Watch sale to help cover the cost NZ Government website: of moving... covid19.govt.nz Coronavirus alert Malcolm system: What you need to know (RNZ) Tracking case numbers Forecasting power demand under the lockdown (2) Hi Marlov, although we're Read more

seeing weekday demand at More articles a typical Sunday level, In full lockdown, we're seeing a 15 per cent drop in weekday power demand. there is a distinct shape On Saturday, there's no sport, pubs or shopping so we're seeing a 10 per cent drop in Advertisement difference between... demand. Mark Todoroff On Sunday, we're seeing an 8 per cent drop. NZAS to shut Line 4 at Tiwai Point (1) The week-on-week percentage drop for Sunday is the lowest as many businesses are Updated to include already closed on Sunday. comment from Meridian The graphs below show March 2020's daily average and peak weather-corrected Energy chief executive demand compared to 2019's. All weather-corrected demand is calculated using Neal Barclay. TESLA Forecasting's methodology. Joshua Riddiford more Advertisement

Energy Resource Factfile Tauhara Geothermal power station

Capacity 250.00MW

Ownership https://www.energynews.co.nz/column/electricity-demand/50066/forecasting-power-demand-under-lockdown 1/3 4/1/2020 Forecasting power demand under the lockdown | Energy News

Tauhara Geothermal power station

Tauhara field, 5.5 Location kilometres north-east of Taupo

Status Consented

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Organisation Factfile

Westpower

Rob Caldwell (until 31 March Note: This is an aggregation of demand at all conforming grid exit points in New CEO 2020), Peter Armstrong (From 1 Zealand. April 2020)

Ownership West Coast Electric Power Trust What's TESLA doing to adjust our demand forecasts? The first thing we did was modify the school holiday variables to account for school Description Distribution company closures from Tuesday last week onward. Now that we're in full lockdown, we've also Operating moved all weekdays for the next four weeks into our Sunday model. Amethyst River resources Although weekday lockdown demand is around the Sunday level, there is an earlier morning ramp up as people wake up earlier during the week when they work from Non-operating Waitaha River home. We're adjusting the weekday lockdown shape to account for this. resources

The upcoming Easter holiday weekend and shift from daylight saving View full listing There's typically more uncertainty in demand forecasting around the time change. Not only does the temporal alignment shift by one hour, but we're also transitioning from View all organisations cooling to heating demand. Popular Interviews To further complicate things we also have the effect of the four-day Easter weekend coming up. In a typical year, people take advantage of this extra-long weekend and go Recent Today Top rated BEC executive director on holiday. Tina Schirr Thermal reserve a bad strategy: Mercury Craig Greaves Unfortunately, that won't be the case this year. So TESLA Forecasting must suppress Tina Schirr is Easter's effect on load and treat those holidays as typical lockdown level non-working Electricity firms prepare for pandemic days. open to new Tiwai exempt from Covid-19 closure, Methanex ideas and Mark Todoroff is Business Development Director at TESLA Asia Pacific. to keep operating innovations, Rate this article: NZAS to shut Line 4 at Tiwai Point wherever they come from. Carbon price could backfire: Genesis No votes yet Govt puts $20m into green hydrogen PEPANZ CEO John Carnegie Topics: electricity demand demand forecasting Aurora has its day in court Electricity Authority Hiringa targets 2021 start-up for green CEO James Organisation: TESLA Asia Pacific hydrogen Stevenson-Wallace PEPANZ CEO 410 reads Printer-friendly version more Cameron Madgwick Marlov Advertisement 's Mark Hi Mark, thanks for the Soper Tue, 31 Mar BP's Debi Boffa 2020 Hi Mark, thanks for the update. "there is an earlier morning ramp up as people wake up earlier during the week when they work from Most commented home"... What's the reason for this do you think? I'm just curious KiwiSaver fossil because intuitively I would have expected the exact opposite. When fuel ban won't people don't have to commute, they can afford to wake up later to 40 curb climate start work from home. change: PEPANZ delete edit reply like dislike (1 likes, 0 dislikes) Authority to fast- track market 38 making changes Mark Todoroff Hi Marlov, although we're Meridian, Contact Tue, 31 accused of code 29 Mar 2020 Hi Marlov, although we're seeing weekday demand at a typical Sunday level, there is a distinct shape difference between breaches Organisation cloud weekday lockdown and the typical Sunday demand profile. Govt backs Specifically, weekday lockdown demand has a steeper Commerce Commission Contact Energy market-making morning ramp up than a typical Sunday. That's because during change in 29 Electricity Authority Genesis Mercury response to final the week people are waking up earlier to work from home. On OMV TAG Oil Todd Energy the weekend, they are sleeping in. So for demand forecasting EPR report Transpower Trustpower Vector during this lockdown, we are not just forecasting all lockdown Govt moots gas, more weekdays as Sundays, but are also adjusting for the weekday electricity 27 intervention demand profile. Sorry for the confusion! Keyword cloud delete edit reply powers like dislike (2 likes, 0 dislikes) appointments coal drilling electricity Network stranding 26 distribution electricity generation electricity prices electricity regulation electricity retailing Prices fall after 25 Related content exploration financials gas geothermal hydro hydro southern rain https://www.energynews.co.nz/column/electricity-demand/50066/forecasting-power-demand-under-lockdown 2/3 4/1/2020 Forecasting power demand under the lockdown | Energy News Police board 25 YEPN eyes South Island for growth lake levels lines companies renewables solar activist-occupied oil OMV supply NZ hits summer demand high upstream wind vessel TESLA reduces load forecasts to regional level more

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