The Black Country Sector Skills Deep Dive Advanced Manufacturing 07

The Black Country Sector Skills Deep Dive

Advanced Manufacturing 07/09/2020

Advanced Manufacturing Executive Summary Sector Context • £2.7bn (12.8%) of the Black Country total GVA, above England average of 11.7%. • 67,805 (15.1%) of the Black Country total jobs, above England average of 10.4%. • 4,350 (13.0%) of the Black Country total establishments, above England average of 12.8%. • £29,551 average wage. The highest at £52,739 in the manufacture of motor vehicles. • 98 of 262 industries have a location quotient above 1. Supply Side Analysis

• 5.4% of jobs are in machining, the most of an industry within the sector. • Production managers and directors in manufacturing are the most common occupation, with 6,267 people finding work here in the Black Country. • There were 1,190 apprenticeships related to advanced manufacturing in the Black Country during 2018/19. • 88 organisations delivered apprenticeships in advanced manufacturing in 2018/19. • Dudley College of Technology remain the largest provider delivering 880 apprenticeships since 2016/17. • The University of Wolverhampton offers higher education courses relevant to this sector. • There were 1,610 students studying advanced manufacturing related subjects at The University of Wolverhampton. Demand Side Analysis • 76,556 job adverts, 16,066 unique (from January 2019 to January 2020) • The highest demand is in Dudley, which accounted for 38.1% of all unique vacancies in the Black Country, followed by Wolverhampton (22.7%), Sandwell (21.9%) and Dudley (17.3%). • The number of adverts increased from 1,167 in January 2016 to 3,478 in January 2020. This is an increase of 198.0%. • Of the 59 occupations associated with this sector, 34 are expected to grow from now until 2022. • Most occupations in advanced manufacturing score highly on the automation index, including rubber process operatives which scores 100%. • Jobs in advanced manufacturing occupations are projected to increase by 381 by 2022. • 33% of all vacancies in manufacturing are skills shortage vacancies. • 3% of staff are not fully proficient. • Employees have an average of 1.7 training days. Overall, employees across all sectors the Black Country have 3.5 training days. • 53% of manufacturing employers expect new skills from employees in the next 12 months, indicating that this industry may see new ways of working. Supply vs Demand • The following are areas where courses are already offered in the Black Country, but there may be room to grow to meet employment demand: o Metal Work o Wood Crafts and Furniture Making o Food and Drink Manufacturing o Printing o Manufacturing

o Civil Engineering o Fashion, Textiles, Footwear and Leather o Manufacturing • Packing, Computer Engineering and Upholstery courses are not currently offered in the Black Country, and there is potential for creating new courses here to meet skills needs. • Future drivers of skills include increasing use of technology and automation, a need for the production workforce to become more technically able, and increasing regulation. Conclusions • National and local trends suggest that businesses are struggling to train, recruit and retain enough staff for the industry to thrive. • The sector needs to be an attractive, prosperous, and responsible career option. • Recommendations include: o Strengthen resilience o Support skills development o Increase apprenticeships o Invest in skills

Contents 1. Sector Context ...... 5 2. Supply Side Analysis ...... 13 2.1. Current Workforce Size ...... 13 2.2. Existing Training Provision ...... 15 2.2.1. Apprenticeship Provision ...... 16 2.2.2. Further and Higher Education Provision ...... 17 3. Demand Side Analysis ...... 18 3.1. Occupational Forecasts ...... 20 3.2. Job Forecasts by Industry ...... 24 3.3. Sector Skills Shortages ...... 32 4. Supply vs Demand ...... 34 4.1. Provision Review ...... 34 4.2. Future Drivers of Skills ...... 36 4.3. Impact of Brexit ...... 37 4.4. Impact of Covid-19 ...... 37 4.5. Impact of the climate emergency ...... 38 5. Conclusions ...... 38 5.1. Summary ...... 38 5.2. Recommendations ...... 38 5.3. Action Planning ...... 39

1. Sector Context The advanced manufacturing sector accounts for 12.8% of the total GVA which equates to a value of £21.2bn in the Black Country. With 15.1% of total jobs arising from the advanced manufacturing sector, this equates to 67,805 jobs. While 13.0% of all establishments in the Black Country are in the advanced manufacturing sector which is a total of 4,350 establishments. The proportion of the jobs, GVA and establishments in the advanced manufacturing sector for the Black Country is above the national base. Defining the advanced manufacturing sector is not easy. The sector is so wide and varied that what may be advanced in one area may not be advanced in another. Advanced manufacturing is the integration of technology-based systems and processes in the production of products to the highest level of quality and in compliance with industry specific standards. Paramount to advanced manufacturing and engineering is a highly skilled workforce operating in lean and continuous improvement cultures. For the purposes of this report we have included all sectors of manufacturing within our definition of the sector. As noted in the Black Country Strategic Economic Plan, the Black Country has a significant strength in advanced manufacturing, and have specialisms in metals, machinery and automotive, particularly light weighting and composites. The Black Country Local Industrial Strategy emphasises that the area is already home to a high number of well-established and specialist advanced manufacturing businesses. The following table displays the GVA, jobs and establishments by the 10 sectors in the Black Country.

GVA (£bn) Jobs Establishments (Snapshot)

2018 % Eng. % 2018 % Eng. % 2019 % Eng. % Advanced Manufacturing £2.72 12.8% 11.7% 67,805 15.1% 10.4% 4,350 13.0% 12.8% Building Technologies £1.40 6.6% 6.1% 23,500 5.2% 4.6% 4,565 13.6% 12.7% Business Services £5.44 25.7% 41.9% 80,185 17.9% 25.4% 9,565 28.5% 40.1% Environmental Technologies £1.00 4.7% 2.5% 6,050 1.3% 1.1% 230 0.7% 0.5% Health £2.30 10.9% 7.5% 64,800 14.4% 12.9% 1,615 4.8% 3.9% Public Sector £2.98 14.1% 10.8% 63,000 14.0% 15.3% 835 2.5% 3.6% Retail £3.19 15.0% 10.8% 86,000 19.1% 15.3% 6,785 20.2% 14.3% Sports £0.38 1.8% 1.1% 7,000 1.6% 1.8% 315 0.9% 1.3% Transport Technologies £1.31 6.2% 4.2% 29,160 6.5% 4.9% 3,070 9.1% 4.2% Visitor Economy £0.45 2.1% 3.3% 21,600 4.8% 8.1% 2,225 6.6% 6.8% Total £21.17 100.0% 100.0% 449,100 100.0% 100.0% 33,555 100.0% 100.0% Source: ONS: Regional gross value added, Business Register Employment Survey and UK Business counts, 2019 Within this section, firstly there is analysis on the latest data of the advanced manufacturing sector overall, this is followed by a summary of the industries within this sector and then further analysis of the top ten industries. The latest data for total GVA in the advanced manufacturing sector was £2.7bn in 2018. This sector accounts for 12.8% of the total GVA for the Black Country which is above the England average of 11.7% of the total1.

1 ONS, Regional gross value added (balanced) by industry, 2019

The following table displays the total value of GVA in the Black Country.

Black Black Black Black England Country Country Country Country 2018 % of Change 2018 % of 2017 2018 Total (2017-2018) Total Advanced Manufacturing £2.66 £2.72 £0.06 12.8% 11.7% Building Technologies £1.41 £1.40 -£0.01 6.6% 6.1% Business Services £5.44 £5.44 £0.00 25.7% 41.9% Environmental Technologies £0.87 £1.00 £0.13 4.7% 2.5% Health £2.29 £2.30 £0.01 10.9% 7.5% Public Sector £2.89 £2.98 £0.09 14.1% 10.8% Retail £3.06 £3.19 £0.13 15.0% 10.8% Sports £0.34 £0.38 £0.04 1.8% 1.1% Transport Technologies £1.25 £1.31 £0.06 6.2% 4.2% Visitor Economy £0.45 £0.45 £0.00 2.1% 3.3% Total £20.66 £21.17 £0.51 100.0% 100.0% Source: ONS: Regional gross value added, 2019 In 2019, there were approximately 4,350 establishments in the advanced manufacturing sector2, this accounts for 13.0% of the total establishments in the Black Country which is slightly above the England average of 12.8%. The following table displays the number of establishments in the Black Country.

Black Country 2019 % Black Country 2019 Eng. 2019 % of Total of Total Advanced Manufacturing 4,350 13.00% 12.80% Building Technologies 4,565 13.60% 12.70% Business Services 9,565 28.50% 40.10% Environmental Technologies 230 0.70% 0.50% Health 1,615 4.80% 3.90% Public Sector 835 2.50% 3.60% Retail 6,785 20.20% 14.30% Sports 315 0.90% 1.30% Transport Technologies 3,070 9.10% 4.20% Visitor Economy 2,225 6.60% 6.80% Total 33,555 100.00% 100.00% Source: ONS: UK Business Counts, 2019 The average wages for the advanced manufacturing sector is £29,551, compared to a national average of £32,598. Wages range from per job vary from £10,284 in the manufacture of underwear to £52,739 in the manufacture of motor vehicles. Based on 2015 EMSI GVA modelled data which allows for greater sectoral breakdown the sector contributed £2.4bn in total to the England economy. Within the advanced manufacturing sector GVA varies from £142m for the manufacture of air and spacecraft and related machinery, to £15,556 for the repair and maintenance of ships and boats.

2 ONS: UK Business Counts 2019. Please note, currently the ONS Business Demography dataset does not provide a breakdown by industry for all registered establishments, the breakdown can be obtained from the ONS UK Business Counts which is a snapshot (March 2019) of the Business Demography dataset.

Location Quotients (LQ)s is a way of quantifying how concentrated a particular industry, cluster, occupation, or demographic group is in a region as compared to the nation. It can reveal what makes a particular region “unique” in comparison to the national average. Higher LQs correspond to higher levels of specialisation, with an LQ above 1 indicating that the area is more specialised in that sector than Great Britain as a whole. Overall, the advanced manufacturing sector has an LQ of 1.82 and out of the 162 industries within the advanced manufacturing sector, 96 are above 13. The following table shows the breakdown of all the industries within the advanced manufacturing sector for establishments, average wages, GVA and the Location Quotient4.

2019 Avg. 2018 GVA (2015 SIC Industry Businesses Wages Per Location Model) (Snapshot) Job Quotient 7112 Engineering activities and related technical consultancy 735 £33,152 £117,993,899 0.55 2562 Machining 430 £27,111 £98,069,221 2.42 2599 Manufacture of other fabricated metal products n.e.c. 165 £26,736 £58,079,500 4.17 2511 Manufacture of metal structures and parts of structures 125 £35,758 £100,239,936 3.33 7111 Architectural activities 135 £31,764 £35,249,540 0.73 2561 Treatment and coating of metals 125 £28,609 £78,028,288 7.92 1812 Other printing 120 £22,967 £30,270,923 1.08 1623 Manufacture of other builders' carpentry and joinery 115 £23,820 £25,995,959 1.56 3312 Repair of machinery 95 £37,968 £61,687,433 2.67 3299 Other manufacturing n.e.c. 95 £26,447 £18,186,853 2.27 3109 Manufacture of other furniture 95 £22,862 £65,896,952 5.29 2573 Manufacture of tools 85 £27,786 £25,323,358 4.36 2229 Manufacture of other plastic products 65 £35,499 £51,353,679 1.60 7120 Technical testing and analysis 70 £26,652 £35,841,630 1.02 Growing of crops, market gardening, horticulture; 01A0 70 £21,637 £9,605,212 0.10 Farming of animals Forging, pressing, stamping and roll-forming of metal; 2550 60 £27,223 £61,531,257 6.11 powder metallurgy 2223 Manufacture of builders’ ware of plastic 50 £27,767 £29,803,954 1.18 2512 Manufacture of doors and windows of metal 55 £28,436 £17,495,165 2.07 2822 Manufacture of lifting and handling equipment 50 £31,689 £39,360,891 5.71 3320 Installation of industrial machinery and equipment 50 £38,264 £8,163,655 1.04 1413 Manufacture of other outerwear 55 £11,477 £7,104,935 2.37 Manufacture of other parts and accessories for motor 2932 40 £37,170 £114,198,021 2.71 vehicles Manufacture of luggage, handbags and the like, saddlery 1512 45 £27,386 £22,167,264 11.92 and harness 2594 Manufacture of fasteners and screw machine products 40 £29,802 £55,557,895 15.44 2593 Manufacture of wire products, chain and springs 40 £23,741 £12,988,052 3.90 2572 Manufacture of locks and hinges 35 £29,759 £50,025,182 17.99 Manufacture of bread; manufacture of fresh pastry 1071 35 £26,369 £34,081,555 1.19 goods and cakes 2410 Manufacture of basic iron and steel and of ferro-alloys 35 £31,336 £38,212,052 3.10 2829 Manufacture of other general-purpose machinery n.e.c. 35 £32,948 £39,120,180 2.72

3 EMSI Analytics tool, 2020 4 Please note, there are 262 industries within the advanced manufacturing sector, however any industries that contained insufficient data have been removed which leads to a new total of 162 industries. The source of this table is EMSI Analytics tool, 2020 leading to job figures slightly varying to the total advanced manufacturing figure.

2019 Avg. 2018 GVA (2015 SIC Industry Businesses Wages Per Location Model) (Snapshot) Job Quotient Manufacture of medical and dental instruments and 3250 30 £31,545 £14,856,123 0.89 supplies Manufacture of tubes, pipes, hollow profiles and related 2420 35 £25,689 £45,152,086 7.14 fittings, of steel Manufacture of instruments and appliances for 2651 25 £32,775 £13,294,254 0.51 measuring, testing and navigation 2849 Manufacture of other machine tools 25 £32,095 £8,180,113 3.17 Manufacture of non-domestic cooling and ventilation 2825 25 £37,296 £24,936,512 2.46 equipment 3101 Manufacture of office and shop furniture 25 £29,266 £36,147,460 3.86 Manufacture of bodies (coachwork) for motor vehicles; 2920 20 £37,331 £16,579,751 1.84 manufacture of trailers and semi-trailers 3102 Manufacture of kitchen furniture 25 £26,959 £7,322,348 1.10 3311 Repair of fabricated metal products 30 £29,378 £12,261,529 2.90 1392 Manufacture of made-up textile articles, except apparel 30 £17,762 £2,567,257 0.93 1419 Manufacture of other wearing apparel and accessories 20 £10,804 £5,633,160 3.74 3319 Repair of other equipment 25 £23,372 £1,924,081 0.82 2910 Manufacture of motor vehicles 25 £52,739 £6,389,851 0.08 3314 Repair of electrical equipment 20 £28,810 £3,635,454 1.24 1013 Production of meat and poultry meat products 20 £23,447 £16,019,489 1.57 Manufacture of paints, varnishes and similar coatings, 2030 15 £30,218 £18,300,841 5.84 printing ink and mastics 2841 Manufacture of metal forming machinery 20 £33,482 £5,428,490 2.42 2453 Casting of light metals 15 £21,699 £13,627,075 4.96 2219 Manufacture of other rubber products 15 £33,197 £13,386,388 0.95 Manufacture of electricity distribution and control 2712 15 £31,271 £10,976,245 0.81 apparatus 2454 Casting of other non-ferrous metals 15 £27,858 £9,352,386 7.69 2363 Manufacture of ready-mixed concrete 5 £36,678 £6,118,896 0.72 1813 Pre-press and pre-media services 20 £25,571 £5,665,852 1.39 2790 Manufacture of other electrical equipment 10 £29,072 £5,252,645 1.12 1624 Manufacture of wooden containers 15 £22,642 £5,020,055 2.84 1330 Finishing of textiles 20 £18,776 £7,625,864 3.19 2821 Manufacture of ovens, furnaces and furnace burners 15 £31,752 £4,528,649 5.08 2433 Cold forming or folding 15 £27,101 £19,561,010 15.11 2899 Manufacture of other special-purpose machinery n.e.c. 10 £41,573 £15,400,061 2.36 2222 Manufacture of plastic packing goods 15 £34,411 £11,494,119 0.80 2016 Manufacture of plastics in primary forms 15 £25,620 £13,711,045 2.26 2896 Manufacture of plastics and rubber machinery 15 £20,371 £1,576,620 1.78 2451 Casting of iron 15 £28,605 £57,141,461 19.48 1105 Manufacture of beer 15 £36,630 £30,129,180 2.62 1729 Manufacture of other articles of paper and paperboard 10 £32,237 £5,804,440 2.21 2370 Cutting, shaping and finishing of stone 15 £27,317 £2,240,819 0.19 Manufacture of other products of wood; manufacture of 1629 15 £19,196 £11,702,100 1.91 articles of cork, straw and plaiting materials Manufacture and processing of other glass, including 2319 10 £25,303 £3,911,445 2.25 technical glassware

2019 Avg. 2018 GVA (2015 SIC Industry Businesses Wages Per Location Model) (Snapshot) Job Quotient Manufacture of bearings, gears, gearing and driving 2815 10 £39,996 £4,969,260 1.62 elements 2442 Aluminium production 5 £28,569 £3,815,837 4.56 2059 Manufacture of other chemical products n.e.c. 10 £38,242 £5,634,931 1.34 1412 Manufacture of workwear 5 £11,679 £1,610,773 5.12 3317 Repair and maintenance of other transport equipment 15 £29,614 £4,570,618 0.26 Manufacture of engines and turbines, except aircraft, 2811 10 £45,217 £2,410,093 0.44 vehicle and cycle engines 1089 Manufacture of other food products n.e.c. 10 £27,061 £11,016,774 0.62 2620 Manufacture of computers and peripheral equipment 10 £23,837 £360,213 0.36 2521 Manufacture of central heating radiators and boilers 5 £28,110 £749,475 0.16 Manufacture of corrugated paper and paperboard and of 1721 10 £36,075 £8,775,288 0.99 containers of paper and paperboard 3212 Manufacture of jewellery and related articles 10 £21,420 £760,670 0.23 2630 Manufacture of communication equipment 15 £31,868 £1,372,852 0.37 3230 Manufacture of sports goods 10 £23,563 £1,252,847 0.94 2740 Manufacture of electric lighting equipment 10 £26,924 £10,659,862 1.22 Manufacture of machinery for food, beverage and 2893 15 £30,261 £1,950,858 1.29 tobacco processing 3313 Repair of electronic and optical equipment 5 £30,850 £3,377,313 1.51 2312 Shaping and processing of flat glass 10 £29,449 £8,373,979 0.66 1610 Sawmilling and planing of wood 5 £23,548 £4,384,870 1.23 1011 Processing and preserving of meat 5 £27,811 £3,588,228 0.46 Manufacture of bricks, tiles and construction products, in 2332 5 £33,406 £6,643,861 1.91 baked clay 2751 Manufacture of electric domestic appliances 5 £27,006 £1,959,404 0.73 Manufacture of other tanks, reservoirs and containers of 2529 5 £29,299 £3,711,647 1.64 metal 1084 Manufacture of condiments and seasonings 5 £32,347 £8,187,385 1.83 3092 Manufacture of bicycles and invalid carriages 5 £26,818 £10,974,750 10.11 1012 Processing and preserving of poultry meat 5 £24,512 £49,989,168 4.74 Manufacture of cocoa, chocolate and sugar 1082 5 £32,652 £1,914,933 0.22 confectionery 2611 Manufacture of electronic components 5 £26,904 £871,907 0.17 Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products 2399 5 £42,116 £2,526,032 0.86 n.e.c. 2221 Manufacture of plastic plates, sheets, tubes and profiles 10 £34,179 £8,775,505 0.29 3220 Manufacture of musical instruments 5 £21,926 £104,444 0.83 2320 Manufacture of refractory products 5 £35,973 £2,665,555 1.08 Manufacture of optical instruments and photographic 2670 5 £32,197 £650,781 0.26 equipment Manufacture of soap and detergents, cleaning and 2041 5 £21,488 £11,205,552 0.81 polishing preparations 2812 Manufacture of fluid power equipment 5 £31,738 £3,794,037 1.43 2830 Manufacture of agricultural and forestry machinery 5 £33,202 £808,278 0.98 2814 Manufacture of other taps and valves 0 £37,379 £3,893,371 0.87 Manufacture of concrete products for construction 2361 5 £40,217 £3,374,681 0.10 purposes

2019 Avg. 2018 GVA (2015 SIC Industry Businesses Wages Per Location Model) (Snapshot) Job Quotient 0161 Support activities for crop production 10 £24,621 £256,162 0.20 2434 Cold drawing of wire 5 £26,445 £2,336,503 14.85 2592 Manufacture of light metal packaging 0 £39,087 £1,500,097 0.63 2452 Casting of steel 5 £24,501 £3,484,987 1.89 Manufacture of rusks and biscuits; manufacture of 1072 5 £24,626 £3,584,343 0.21 preserved pastry goods and cakes Manufacture of soft drinks; production of mineral waters 1107 5 £34,846 £2,178,317 0.50 and other bottled waters 2591 Manufacture of steel drums and similar containers 5 £23,060 £3,533,134 4.48 0162 Support activities for animal production 5 £20,259 £661,372 0.26 1621 Manufacture of veneer sheets and wood-based panels 5 £29,087 £4,126,857 1.74 Manufacture of steam generators, except central heating 2530 5 £31,240 £4,385,258 3.69 hot water boilers Manufacture of electrical and electronic equipment for 2931 5 £30,182 £2,302,422 1.87 motor vehicles 1920 Manufacture of refined petroleum products 5 £38,524 £2,251,028 0.71 2391 Production of abrasive products 5 £24,096 £82,117 0.47 Manufacture of electric motors, generators and 2711 5 £34,628 £10,776,103 1.01 transformers 2431 Cold drawing of bars 5 £21,467 £6,198,462 36.78 1101 Distilling, rectifying and blending of spirits 5 £37,401 £620,492 0.12 2444 Copper production 5 £28,483 £7,974,593 9.85 2042 Manufacture of perfumes and toilet preparations 5 £19,324 £754,448 0.15 3315 Repair and maintenance of ships and boats 0 £25,377 £13,556 0.12 2813 Manufacture of other pumps and compressors 5 £35,243 £4,408,901 0.64 2445 Other non-ferrous metal production 0 £34,983 £885,401 1.11 1723 Manufacture of paper stationery 5 £23,932 £295,703 0.21 1814 Binding and related services 0 £19,431 £384,536 0.38 1520 Manufacture of footwear 0 £24,857 £0 0.54 3291 Manufacture of brooms and brushes 0 £19,237 £559,322 2.36 3030 Manufacture of air and spacecraft and related machinery 5 £40,405 £142,169,235 0.73 1320 Weaving of textiles 5 £24,442 £0 0.34 2052 Manufacture of glues 5 £23,876 £1,709,733 4.76 Manufacture of machinery for textile, apparel and 2894 0 £32,370 £250,937 0.45 leather production 0210 Silviculture and other forestry activities 5 £23,559 £765,256 0.10 2612 Manufacture of loaded electronic boards 0 £23,777 £178,592 0.16 1414 Manufacture of underwear 0 £10,284 £0 1.15 2571 Manufacture of cutlery 0 £28,549 £882,117 4.72 Tanning and dressing of leather; dressing and dyeing of 1511 0 £25,441 £322,666 1.90 fur 2014 Manufacture of other organic basic chemicals 5 £33,956 £30,120,414 3.22 2364 Manufacture of mortars 0 £47,630 £1,676,291 2.88 2824 Manufacture of power-driven hand tools 0 £14,597 £1,331,269 11.77 3240 Manufacture of games and toys 5 £30,839 £19,819,662 3.74 1712 Manufacture of paper and paperboard 0 £34,352 £3,834,532 1.02 1399 Manufacture of other textiles n.e.c. 0 £18,938 £271,281 0.75

2019 Avg. 2018 GVA (2015 SIC Industry Businesses Wages Per Location Model) (Snapshot) Job Quotient 1085 Manufacture of prepared meals and dishes 5 £25,153 £5,018,604 0.42 Manufacture of irradiation, electromedical and 2660 0 £38,775 £280,179 0.51 electrotherapeutic equipment 1039 Other processing and preserving of fruit and vegetables 5 £28,471 £2,220,416 0.14 Operation of gravel and sand pits; mining of clays and 0812 0 £23,279 £1,077,874 0.14 kaolin 0321 Marine aquaculture 0 £28,904 £748,092 0.48 Manufacture of other electronic and electric wires and 2732 0 £28,494 £1,156,872 0.31 cables 2342 Manufacture of ceramic sanitary fixtures 0 £29,557 £1,087,465 3.07 2365 Manufacture of fibre cement 0 £36,230 £3,567,999 27.66 2891 Manufacture of machinery for metallurgy 0 £34,167 £444,236 1.97 3040 Manufacture of military fighting vehicles 0 £36,655 £118,950 0.46 2733 Manufacture of wiring devices 5 £29,456 £4,527,408 1.04 2011 Manufacture of industrial gases 0 £40,237 £21,849,537 5.00 1032 Manufacture of fruit and vegetable juice 0 £28,618 £3,048,573 2.85 1061 Manufacture of grain mill products 0 £35,278 £2,941,782 0.69 2013 Manufacture of other inorganic basic chemicals 0 £36,520 £2,309,593 0.39 2012 Manufacture of dyes and pigments 0 £30,447 £964,783 0.94 2110 Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products 0 £37,478 £362,263 0.14 1411 Manufacture of leather clothes 0 £12,438 £0 5.36 TOTAL 4,320 £29,551 £2,390,311,099 1.82 Source: EMSI Analytics Tool, 2020 The following figure shows the top ten industries for the highest GVA produced, the manufacture of air and spacecraft and related machinery is the highest at nearly £142m. This is followed by engineering activities and related technical consultancy at £118m and the manufacture of other parts and accessories for motor vehicles at £114m. Top 10 Industries for Total GVA in the Advanced Manufacturing Sector

Manufacture of other fabricated metal products n.e.c. £58,079,500 Forging, pressing, stamping and roll-forming of metal;… £61,531,257 Repair of machinery £61,687,433 Manufacture of other furniture £65,896,952 Treatment and coating of metals £78,028,288 Machining £98,069,221 Manufacture of metal structures and parts of structures £100,239,936 Manufacture of other parts and accessories for motor… £114,198,021 Engineering activities and related technical consultancy £117,993,899 Manufacture of air and spacecraft and related machinery £142,169,235

£0 £50,000,000 £100,000,000 £150,000,000 GVA (£)

Source: EMSI Analytics Tool, 2020

Within the advanced manufacturing sector, the industry with the highest number of establishments is engineering activities and related technical consultancy at 735, this is followed by machining with 430 establishments, and manufacture of other fabricated metal products n.e.c. at 165.

Source: ONS: UK Business Counts. 2019 The highest average wages in the top ten industry selection shows the manufacture of motor vehicles is the highest at £52,739, followed by the manufacture of engines and turbines (except aircraft, vehicle and cycle engines) at £45,217, and then the manufacture of pharmaceutical preparation at £44,884.

Highest Average Wage of the Top 10 Industries Within the Advanced Manufacturing Sector

Manufacture of light metal packaging £39,087 Manufacture of bearings, gears, gearing and driving… £39,996 Manufacture of concrete products for construction… £40,217 Manufacture of industrial gases £40,237 Manufacture of air and spacecraft and related… £40,405 Manufacture of other special-purpose machinery n.e.c. £41,573 Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products… £42,116 Manufacture of engines and turbines, except aircraft,… £45,217 Manufacture of mortars £47,630 Manufacture of motor vehicles £52,739 £0 £10,000 £20,000 £30,000 £40,000 £50,000 £60,000 Wage (£)

Source: EMSI Analytics Tool, 2020

The following table shows the top ten industries that has an LQ of above 1. Notably, the cold drawing of bars industry has a substantial LQ of 36.78. This is followed by manufacture of fibre cement at 27.66 and the casting of iron at 19.48.

2018 Location Industry Quotient

Cold drawing of bars 36.78 Manufacture of fibre cement 27.66 Casting of iron 19.48 Manufacture of locks and hinges 17.99 Manufacture of fasteners and screw machine products 15.44 Cold forming or folding 15.11 Cold drawing of wire 14.85 Manufacture of luggage, handbags and the like, saddlery and harness 11.92 Manufacture of power-driven hand tools 11.77 Manufacture of bicycles and invalid carriages 10.11

Source: EMSI Analytics Tool, 2020 2. Supply Side Analysis 2.1. Current Workforce Size There was an estimated number of 67,805 jobs in the advanced manufacturing sector in 2018. This sector accounts for 15.1% of the total jobs and above the England total of 10.4%5. The following table displays the number of jobs in the Black Country in 2018.

Black Country Black Country Eng. 2018 % of 2018 2018 % of Total Total Advanced Manufacturing 67,805 15.1% 10.4% Building Technologies 23,500 5.2% 4.6% Business Services 80,185 17.9% 25.4% Environmental Technologies 6,050 1.3% 1.1% Health 64,800 14.4% 12.9% Public Sector 63,000 14.0% 15.3% Retail 86,000 19.1% 15.3% Sports 7,000 1.6% 1.8% Transport Technologies 29,160 6.5% 4.9% Visitor Economy 21,600 4.8% 8.1% Total 449,100 100.0% 100.0% Source: ONS: Business Register and Employment Survey, 2019 Sector Analysis EMSI provide a more detailed breakdown of jobs by industry and based on their total of 68,736 jobs in 2018. The top ten industries within the advanced manufacturing sector accounts for over 25,041 jobs which equate to 36% of the total jobs.

5 ONS, Business Register and Employment Survey, 2019

As seen in the following graph, the top ten industries with the highest number of jobs within the advanced manufacturing sector varies from 1,758 in the manufacture of lifting and handling equipment to 3,707 in machining. The industry with the fewest jobs is the manufacture of paper stationery at 11 jobs.

Top 10 Industries with the Highest Number of Jobs within the Advanced Manufacturing Sector, 2018

Manufacture of lifting and handling equipment 1758 Repair of machinery 1759 Forging, pressing, stamping and roll-forming of metal;… 1771 Manufacture of other fabricated metal products n.e.c. 2002 Manufacture of other parts and accessories for motor… 2302 Treatment and coating of metals 2734 Manufacture of metal structures and parts of structures 2738 Engineering activities and related technical consultancy 3097 Manufacture of other furniture 3173 Machining 3707

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 Jobs

Source: EMSI Analytics Tool, 2020 Occupation Analysis6 The advanced manufacturing sector is very diverse, incorporating industries such as aerospace, automotive, pharmaceuticals, chemical manufacturing and electronics. As a consequence, there is significant variation in the occupations in the sector. One occupation comprises 12% of the total number of jobs, but most occupy 1%.

Description 2018 Jobs Production managers and directors in manufacturing 6,267 Metal working production and maintenance fitters 4,624 Vehicle technicians, mechanics and electricians 4,553 Packers, bottlers, canners and fillers 4,082 Elementary process plant occupations n.e.c. 2,858 Metal working machine operatives 2,692 Food, drink and tobacco process operatives 2,632 Metal machining setters and setter-operators 2,496 Welding trades 2,430 Plumbers and heating and ventilating engineers 1,977 Source: EMSI Analytics Tool, 2020

6 Occupation and industry classifications categorise occupations and industries into clearly defined groups. As such they provide a common basis for collecting, presenting, and comparing of labour statistics. Occupational classifications (SOC) group people based on job and tasks performed whereas Industry (SIC) classifications group people based on the sector of economic activity in which they are employed. For the purpose of this work we have attributed occupations to their most natural industrial sector, so for example a ‘Financial Accounts Managers’ whose skills are transferrable across all sectors will be contained solely within Business and Professional Services. Any identified skills gap for this occupation would apply to all sectors.

2.2. Existing Training Provision Apprenticeship Starts The total number of apprenticeships in the Black Country (across all sectors) increased to 10,300 from 9,420 in 2018/19 - up 9.3% compared to 4.7% nationally. The table below identifies the unique apprenticeship starts by area across the Black Country LEP for all advanced manufacturing related subjects. Change % Change 2016/17, 2017/18, 2018/19, Local Authority District 17/18 - 17/18 - Final Final Final 18/19 18/19 Dudley 560 400 340 -60 -15.0% Sandwell 550 350 300 -50 -14.3% Walsall 470 290 300 10 3.4% Wolverhampton 320 280 300 20 7.1% Total 1,900 1,310 1,190 -120 -9.2% Source: ESFA Datacube, 2018/19 The number of advanced manufacturing apprenticeships decreased by 9% across the Black Country in 2018/19 to 1,190. Analysis by local authority area highlights a varied picture - with the number of starts in Wolverhampton and Walsall increasing by 7.1% to 300, and 3.4% to 300 respectively. Meanwhile the number of apprenticeships fell by -15.0% in Dudley to 340 and -14.3% in Sandwell to 300. Despite this fall in starts, learners in Dudley account for 29% of all advanced manufacturing apprentices across the Black Country. The table below identifies the number of starts by each of the Tier 2 sector subject areas that combine to form the overarching ‘Engineering and Manufacturing Technologies’. Change % Change 2016/17, 2017/18, 2018/19, Sector Subject Area 17/18 - 17/18 - Final Final Final 18/19 18/19 Agriculture 10 0 10 10 0% Engineering 390 450 470 20 4.4% Manufacturing Technologies 1,500 860 700 -160 -18.6% Science 10 0 0 0 0% Total 1,900 1,310 1,190 -120 -9.2% Source: ESFA Datacube, 2018/19 When considering apprenticeship starts by sector subject area, the only increase was recorded in ‘Engineering’. Apprenticeship starts in ‘Manufacturing Technologies’ fell by -18.6%, while starts in Agriculture remained at 10, and there were also still no apprenticeship starts in Science. Of particular note is the longer-term decline in apprenticeship starts for ‘Manufacturing Technologies’ – down 53.3% or 800 in absolute number since 2016/17.

Apprenticeship Level for Advanced Manufacturing Apprenticeships starts in Engineering and Manufacturing Technologies were more likely to be at either advanced or higher Advanced Apprenticeship level in 2018/19 than in 2017/18. 44% Higher Apprenticeship Together, these made up 93% of all 49% apprenticeship starts, whilst intermediate Intermediate apprenticeships made up the remaining Apprenticeship 7%.

Source: ESFA Datacube, 2018/19 In terms of starts by provider, 88 organisations delivered apprenticeships across the Black Country in Engineering and Manufacturing Technologies in 2018/19. The majority of training was provided by the 10 providers listed below, which accounted for 71%.

2016/17, 2017/18, 2018/19, Provider Final Final Final Dudley College of Technology 300 290 290 In-Comm Training and Business Services Limited 130 100 110 City of Wolverhampton College 50 120 90 Eef Limited 100 60 70 Walsall College 130 50 70 Lean Engineering and Manufacturing Academy 0 50 60 Limited Birmingham Metropolitan College 60 40 60 Jtl 40 50 40 Lean Education and Development Limited 0 20 30 Project Management (Staffordshire) Limited 20 10 30 Source: ESFA Datacube, 2018/19 The Dudley College of Technology remains by far the biggest provider in the Black Country, followed by In-Comm Training and Business Services Limited. 2.2.1. Apprenticeship Provision A mapping and gapping exercise of all apprenticeship provision in the Black Country has highlighted that there are 86 apprenticeship providers offering apprenticeships in the advanced manufacturing sector. The supporting appendix table shows the current apprenticeship training provision for each of the standards associated with the advanced manufacturing sector across the West Midlands: 99 out of the 208 apprenticeship standards associated with the sector are being offered within the West Midlands. Most provision is held at the training provider, with some courses offering apprenticeships at the employer. A colour coding system was used to map and gap the provision, with a preference for learning at providers taking priority in the colour coding, as some providers offer both onsite and offsite learning, which would be coloured green in the matrix.

In 30 cases there were courses with only one provider offering the course across England e.g. textile care operative, space engineering, process leader, composites technician. Additionally, there were 13 cases where this provision was only within the West Midlands, e.g. sign maker/technician, print administration and management, plater welder, metal casting, foundry and patternmaking technician. 56 courses were not being catered for at the time of analysis anywhere across England, and an additional 19 were offered somewhere else in the country but not in the West Midlands. 2.2.2. Further and Higher Education Provision Higher Education (HESA) Qualifications and skills are on a spectrum, with many academic qualifications now having considerable employer input, and many vocational and professional qualifications being delivered by universities. There is an identified need for both detailed subject knowledge and transferable skills to be part of vocational qualifications: ‘many formerly purely technical occupations are expected to show a new demand for creative and interpersonal skills’ (World Economic Forum, 2016). Health and engineering are examples where such a binary divide becomes unhelpful. Employers will need all of the skills and qualifications along this spectrum, at different times and in different combinations, and learners and employees will need to be able to move along this spectrum and should be supported in doing so. In the Black Country there is one university to serve the area. The University of Wolverhampton has three main faculties: arts, business and social sciences; education, health and wellbeing; and science and engineering. The table below sets out the number of students studying in these institutions in the academic year 2018/19. Course Number of Students Medicine and dentistry 80 Subjects allied to medicine 3,895 Biological sciences 2,285 Veterinary science 0 Agriculture and related subjects 15 Physical sciences 325 Mathematical sciences 140 Computer science 635 Engineering and technology 835 Architecture, building and planning 610 Social studies 2,575 Law 985 Business and administrative studies 2,035 Mass communications and documentation 265 Languages 385 Historical and philosophical studies 385 Creative arts and design 1,525 Education 2,080 Combined 0 Total 19,045

The University of Wolverhampton had 1,610 students studying advanced manufacturing related courses (mathematical sciences, computer sciences, engineering and technology), which made up 8.5% of its students. 3. Demand Side Analysis Nationally, around 2.7 million people in England work in manufacturing. This is equal to about 10% of total jobs in the UK and almost 13% of jobs in the Black Country. The Institution of Engineering and Technology (IET) surveyed 800 UK employers of engineering and technology staff in 2019 and found that 55% of those businesses "have experienced a lack of skills in the external market" and cite "the shortage of engineering and technical skills at a professional level as a key challenge". It is estimated that approximately 186,000 new engineers and manufacturers are needed every year until 2024. There is currently a deficit of 20,000 graduates annually. Demand in the Black Country area mirrors the shortages at a national level. Analysis of advanced manufacturing job vacancies in the last year (January 2019 to January 2020) reveal 76,556 total job adverts of which 16,066 were unique vacancies. The highest demand is in Dudley, which accounted for 38.1% of all unique vacancies in the Black Country, followed by Wolverhampton (22.7%), Sandwell (21.9%) and Dudley (17.3%).

Source: EMSI Analytics Tool, 2020 The graph below shows the long-term monthly trend for total job adverts for openings in advanced manufacturing. The number of adverts increased from 1,167 in January 2016 to 3,478 in January 2020. This is an increase of 198.0%.

Source: EMSI Analytics Tool, 2020 The top 10 companies looking to recruit to the advanced manufacturing sector account for 2,002 (12.5%) of all unique vacancies posted in the Black Country area.

Top 10 Companies Looking to Recruit

Rise Technical Recruitment Ltd 531 The Best Connection 302 Masstemps Ltd 243 Proactive Personnel Ltd 161 Hexagon Staffing Solutions Limited 150 Pertemps Dudley Industrial 138 Luton Bennett Limited 130 Workforce Staffing Ltd 122 Pioneer Selection Ltd 117 Jonathan Lee Recruitment Limited 108 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 number of vacancies

Source: EMSI Analytics Tool, 2020 The top 10 advertised job titles in advanced manufacturing accounted for 5,247 (32.7%) of all unique vacancies in the advanced manufacturing sector.

Top 10 Job Titles Employers are Looking to Hire

Setters 815 Maintenance Engineers (Installation, Maintenance, and… 743 Welders (Production) 730 Mechanical Engineers 557 Structural Fitters 527 Production Operators 478 Fabricators 438 Engineering Mechanics (Installation, Maintenance, and… 342 CNC Programmers 331 Press Operators 286

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 number of vacancies

Source: EMSI Analytics Tool, 2020 The top requested skill was engineering drawings with 1,171 employers looking for this skill. This was followed by mechanical engineering (1,036) and machining (1,018). Combined, the top three skills demanded appear in 20.1% of unique job postings.

Top 10 Skills Employers are Requesting

Engineering Drawings 1,171 Mechanical Engineering 1,036 Machining 1,018 Metal Inert Gas (MIG) Welding 837 Tooling 751 Lathes 704 Welding 669 Hydraulics 663 Mechanics 643 Computer Numerical Control (CNC) 598 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 number of vacancies

Source: EMSI Analytics Tool, 2020 3.1. Occupational Forecasts

In this section of the report we use UKSOC 4-digit 2010 classifications to understand at a granular level the types of occupations and activities required for roles within the advanced manufacturing sector. 2018 - 2018 - 2018 2022 Automation Description 2022 2022 % Education Level Jobs Jobs Index Change Change Production managers and Honours, 6,267 6,331 64 1% N/A directors in manufacturing Bachelor's degree

2018 - 2018 - 2018 2022 Automation Description 2022 2022 % Education Level Jobs Jobs Index Change Change Metal working production Level 3 NVQ; A 4,624 4,641 17 0% 49.4% and maintenance fitters Levels Vehicle technicians, Level 3 NVQ; A 4,553 4,684 131 3% 54.3% mechanics and electricians Levels Packers, bottlers, canners and Level 1 NVQ; GCSE 4,082 4,125 43 1% 78.6% fillers at grades D-G Elementary process plant Level 1 NVQ; GCSE 2,858 2,862 4 0% 71.4% occupations n.e.c. at grades D-G Metal working machine Level 2 NVQ; GCSE 2,692 2,635 -57 -2% 66.4% operatives at grades A*-C Food, drink and tobacco Level 2 NVQ; GCSE 2,632 2,603 -29 -1% 52.4% process operatives at grades A*-C Metal machining setters and Level 3 NVQ; A 2,496 2,434 -62 -2% 64.8% setter-operators Levels Level 3 NVQ; A Welding trades 2,430 2,388 -42 -2% 78.6% Levels Plumbers and heating and Level 3 NVQ; A 1,977 2,019 42 2% 52.5% ventilating engineers Levels Engineering professionals Honours, 1,320 1,327 7 1% 3.4% n.e.c. Bachelor's degree Assemblers (vehicles and Level 2 NVQ; GCSE 1,031 983 -48 -5% 73.5% metal goods) at grades A*-C Honours, Mechanical engineers 1,031 1,057 26 3% 1.3% Bachelor's degree Design and development Honours, 963 956 -7 -1% 1.7% engineers Bachelor's degree Skilled metal, electrical and Level 3 NVQ; A 946 939 -7 -1% 3.5% electronic trades supervisors Levels Level 3 NVQ; A Engineering technicians 944 955 11 1% 41.7% Levels Production and process Honours, 830 834 4 0% 2.2% engineers Bachelor's degree Metal making and treating Level 2 NVQ; GCSE 760 732 -28 -4% 69.6% process operatives at grades A*-C Paper and wood machine Level 2 NVQ; GCSE 736 769 33 4% 71.7% operatives at grades A*-C Telecommunications Level 3 NVQ; A 735 748 13 2% 55.8% engineers Levels Level 2 NVQ; GCSE Plastics process operatives 686 653 -33 -5% 84.5% at grades A*-C Level 2 NVQ; GCSE Weighers, graders and sorters 593 582 -11 -2% 58.5% at grades A*-C Level 3 NVQ; A Sheet metal workers 591 602 11 2% 49.6% Levels Tool makers, tool fitters and Level 3 NVQ; A 590 584 -6 -1% 83.7% markers-out Levels Chemical and related process Level 2 NVQ; GCSE 563 586 23 4% 55.7% operatives at grades A*-C

2018 - 2018 - 2018 2022 Automation Description 2022 2022 % Education Level Jobs Jobs Index Change Change Assemblers (electrical and Level 2 NVQ; GCSE 531 523 -8 -2% 72.0% electronic products) at grades A*-C Honours, Civil engineers 517 521 4 1% 5.1% Bachelor's degree Vehicle body builders and Level 3 NVQ; A 496 507 11 2% 79.6% repairers Levels Honours, Electrical engineers 488 512 24 5% 7.4% Bachelor's degree Honours, IT engineers 394 403 9 2% 1.3% Bachelor's degree Level 3 NVQ; A Vehicle paint technicians 323 330 7 2% 81.1% Levels Level 2 NVQ; GCSE Farmers 321 379 58 18% 36.0% at grades A*-C Honours, Electronics engineers 316 312 -4 -1% 2.2% Bachelor's degree Level 2 NVQ; GCSE Farm workers 304 327 23 8% 64.8% at grades A*-C Level 2 NVQ; GCSE Electroplaters 280 279 -1 -0% 69.2% at grades A*-C Metal plate workers, and Level 3 NVQ; A 270 270 0 0% 76.9% riveters Levels Precision instrument makers Level 3 NVQ; A 265 269 4 2% 50.1% and repairers Levels Air-conditioning and Level 3 NVQ; A 249 253 4 2% 45.9% refrigeration engineers Levels Managers and proprietors in Level 3 NVQ; A 242 341 99 41% 37.1% agriculture and horticulture Levels Building and civil engineering Level 3 NVQ; A 235 249 14 6% 15.6% technicians Levels Level 2 NVQ; GCSE Process operatives n.e.c. 211 217 6 3% 63.1% at grades A*-C Fishing and other elementary Level 2 NVQ; GCSE 188 201 13 7% 68.8% agriculture occupations n.e.c. at grades A*-C Level 2 NVQ; GCSE Textile process operatives 146 144 -2 -1% 59.3% at grades A*-C Production managers and Honours, directors in mining and 137 141 4 3% N/A Bachelor's degree energy Level 2 NVQ; GCSE Agricultural machinery drivers 133 135 2 2% 68.9% at grades A*-C Level 3 NVQ; A Pipe fitters 123 123 0 0% 56.4% Levels Level 3 NVQ; A TV, video and audio engineers 123 126 3 2% 48.1% Levels Level 2 NVQ; GCSE Horticultural trades 122 143 21 17% 37.3% at grades A*-C Agricultural and fishing trades Level 2 NVQ; GCSE 119 132 13 11% 55.5% n.e.c. at grades A*-C

2018 - 2018 - 2018 2022 Automation Description 2022 2022 % Education Level Jobs Jobs Index Change Change Moulders, core makers and Level 2 NVQ; GCSE 102 94 -8 -8% 64.2% die casters at grades A*-C Managers and proprietors in Level 3 NVQ; A forestry, fishing and related 97 94 -3 -3% 37.7% Levels services Level 3 NVQ; A Smiths and forge workers 81 80 -1 -1% 71.9% Levels Glass and ceramics process Level 2 NVQ; GCSE 81 72 -9 -11% 82.5% operatives at grades A*-C Rail and rolling stock builders Level 3 NVQ; A 80 77 -3 -4% 67.4% and repairers Levels Level 2 NVQ; GCSE Rubber process operatives 58 52 -6 -10% 100.0% at grades A*-C Boat and ship builders and Level 3 NVQ; A 45 49 4 9% 49.4% repairers Levels Quarry workers and related Level 2 NVQ; GCSE 40 39 -1 -3% 60.6% operatives at grades A*-C Level 2 NVQ; GCSE Forestry workers 35 38 3 9% 63.0% at grades A*-C Level 2 NVQ; GCSE Coal mine operatives <10 <10 Insf. Data Insf. Data 74.6% at grades A*-C Total 54,086 54,467 381 1% 52.2% Source: EMSI Analytics Tool, 2020 In total there are 59 occupations associated with the advanced manufacturing sector. The most jobs in the Black Country are contained within production managers and directors in manufacturing, followed by metal working production and maintenance fitters and vehicle technicians, mechanics and electricians. These three roles are forecast to grow further by 2022. Of the 59 occupations listed above, 34 are expected to grow, 22 are likely to contract, 2 are likely to stay the same, and 1 - coal mine operatives the data is too insufficient to tell. Of the 22 occupations forecast to shrink, 7 employ fewer than 100 people. These occupations also invariably score heavily on the automation index (the automation index captures an occupation’s risk of being affected by automation). Indeed, the occupation forecast to contract the most in percentage terms is glass and ceramics process operatives (-11%) has an automation reading of 82.5%; whilst the occupation predicted to expand the most in percentage terms at 41% - managers and proprietors in agriculture and horticulture has a much lower risk to automation, 37.1%. In addition to managers and proprietors in agriculture and horticulture, the other occupations expected to grow the most include farmers (+18%), horticultural trades (+17%), agricultural and fishing trades n.e.c. (+11%) and boat and ship builders and repairers (+9%). These occupations also score lower on the automation index.

The Black Country Top 10 Advanced Manufacturing Occupations

3.2. Job Forecasts by Industry Overall, based on EMSI job projection model, the advanced manufacturing sector is projected to decrease by an estimated 607 jobs to 68,129 by 2022. Out of the 262 industries, 87 are projected to decrease in the number of jobs by 2022, with manufacture of other parts and accessories for motor vehicles the highest by 325 jobs down to 1,977. There are 52 industries that are predicted to remain at the same amount of jobs and 65 industries that are predicted to increase in the number of jobs by 2022. The following table shows the change in number of jobs by 2022 where available for the industries within the advanced manufacturing sector. 2018 - 2022 Description 2018 Jobs 2022 Jobs Change Machining 3,707 4,030 323 Manufacture of other furniture 3,173 3,599 426 Engineering activities and related technical consultancy 3,097 3,291 194 Manufacture of metal structures and parts of structures 2,738 2,826 88 Treatment and coating of metals 2,734 2,782 48 Manufacture of other parts and accessories for motor 2,302 1,977 -325 vehicles Manufacture of other fabricated metal products n.e.c. 2,002 2,052 50 Forging, pressing, stamping and roll-forming of metal; 1,771 1,685 -86 powder metallurgy Repair of machinery 1,759 1,895 136

2018 - 2022 Description 2018 Jobs 2022 Jobs Change Manufacture of lifting and handling equipment 1,758 1,924 166 Processing and preserving of poultry meat 1,681 1,440 -241 Manufacture of locks and hinges 1,595 1,482 -113 Other printing 1,447 1,513 66 Manufacture of bread; manufacture of fresh pastry goods 1,421 1,413 -8 and cakes Manufacture of other plastic products 1,392 1,282 -110 Manufacture of paints, varnishes and similar coatings, 1,250 1,524 274 printing ink and mastics Manufacture of fasteners and screw machine products 1,201 1,112 -89 Manufacture of other builders' carpentry and joinery 1,132 1,203 71 Casting of iron 1,076 983 -93 Manufacture of basic iron and steel and of ferro-alloys 1,076 1,139 63 Manufacture of office and shop furniture 1,045 1,078 33 Manufacture of other general-purpose machinery n.e.c. 1,004 936 -68 Manufacture of tools 983 1,035 52 Manufacture of air and spacecraft and related machinery 916 702 -214 Architectural activities 902 959 57 Manufacture of builders’ ware of plastic 870 689 -181 Technical testing and analysis 851 734 -117 Manufacture of non-domestic cooling and ventilation 836 795 -41 equipment Manufacture of tubes, pipes, hollow profiles and related 761 593 -168 fittings, of steel Production of meat and poultry meat products 743 679 -64 Other manufacturing n.e.c. 701 752 51 Manufacture of beer 673 728 55 Manufacture of doors and windows of metal 612 639 27 Manufacture of luggage, handbags and the like, saddlery 570 506 -64 and harness Cold forming or folding 507 524 17 Manufacture of medical and dental instruments and 490 562 72 supplies Manufacture of wire products, chain and springs 484 478 -6 Growing of crops, market gardening, horticulture; Farming 477 473 -4 of animals Manufacture of bodies (coachwork) for motor vehicles; 454 343 -111 manufacture of trailers and semi-trailers Finishing of textiles 452 535 83 Manufacture of instruments and appliances for measuring, 445 411 -34 testing and navigation Casting of light metals 417 313 -104 Manufacture of other organic basic chemicals 386 352 -34 Manufacture of other outerwear 379 255 -124 Manufacture of made-up textile articles, except apparel 377 456 79 Manufacture of other special-purpose machinery n.e.c. 367 396 29 Installation of industrial machinery and equipment 354 369 15

2018 - 2022 Description 2018 Jobs 2022 Jobs Change Manufacture of corrugated paper and paperboard and of 344 324 -20 containers of paper and paperboard Manufacture of plastics in primary forms 338 356 18 Manufacture of other food products n.e.c. 333 296 -37 Manufacture of other articles of paper and paperboard 327 302 -25 Manufacture of kitchen furniture 321 362 41 Manufacture of plastic packing goods 310 287 -23 Manufacture of electric lighting equipment 300 266 -34 Aluminium production 288 302 14 Casting of other non-ferrous metals 282 253 -29 Manufacture of other wearing apparel and accessories 274 213 -61 Manufacture of industrial gases 271 311 40 Manufacture of wooden containers 271 272 1 Copper production 269 254 -15 Repair of fabricated metal products 266 194 -72 Manufacture of games and toys 258 250 -8 Manufacture of other machine tools 248 252 4 Manufacture of bicycles and invalid carriages 242 173 -69 Manufacture of other chemical products n.e.c. 239 270 31 Manufacture of condiments and seasonings 229 190 -39 Manufacture of metal forming machinery 223 225 2 Manufacture of bearings, gears, gearing and driving 221 237 16 elements Manufacture of other rubber products 218 153 -65 Manufacture of glues 218 284 66 Manufacture of other electrical equipment 208 227 19 Manufacture of electric motors, generators and 201 200 -1 transformers Manufacture of ovens, furnaces and furnace burners 196 205 9 Manufacture of prepared meals and dishes 194 205 11 Manufacture of electricity distribution and control 193 168 -25 apparatus Manufacture of workwear 175 137 -38 Processing and preserving of meat 172 152 -20 Cold drawing of bars 171 146 -25 Pre-press and pre-media services 167 158 -9 Manufacture of other products of wood; manufacture of 160 147 -13 articles of cork, straw and plaiting materials Sawmilling and planing of wood 153 142 -11 Manufacture of fluid power equipment 152 159 7 Manufacture of machinery for food, beverage and tobacco 139 152 13 processing Manufacture of soap and detergents, cleaning and 137 128 -9 polishing preparations Manufacture of veneer sheets and wood-based panels 136 105 -31 Manufacture of paper and paperboard 134 144 10 Manufacture of steam generators, except central heating 129 142 13 hot water boilers

2018 - 2022 Description 2018 Jobs 2022 Jobs Change Manufacture of bricks, tiles and construction products, in 128 100 -28 baked clay Manufacture of other tanks, reservoirs and containers of 127 125 -2 metal Manufacture of other pumps and compressors 125 140 15 Shaping and processing of flat glass 122 88 -34 Manufacture of other taps and valves 118 118 0 Manufacture of plastic plates, sheets, tubes and profiles 117 90 -27 Repair of electrical equipment 114 90 -24 Manufacture of engines and turbines, except aircraft, 114 108 -6 vehicle and cycle engines Manufacture of fibre cement 110 85 -25 Repair of electronic and optical equipment 106 92 -14 Manufacture of agricultural and forestry machinery 105 130 25 Manufacture of motor vehicles 105 92 -13 Manufacture of power-driven hand tools 103 119 16 Cold drawing of wire 103 105 2 Manufacture of grain mill products 101 114 13 Manufacture of refined petroleum products 98 68 -30 Manufacture of soft drinks; production of mineral waters 97 103 6 and other bottled waters Manufacture of electric domestic appliances 91 86 -5 Manufacture of steel drums and similar containers 88 75 -13 Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products n.e.c. 86 83 -3 Manufacture of communication equipment 81 87 6 Manufacture and processing of other glass, including 80 61 -19 technical glassware Manufacture of rusks and biscuits; manufacture of 76 68 -8 preserved pastry goods and cakes Manufacture of plastics and rubber machinery 75 61 -14 Manufacture of sports goods 72 83 11 Manufacture of ready-mixed concrete 66 61 -5 Manufacture of electrical and electronic equipment for 62 46 -16 motor vehicles Repair of other equipment 59 51 -8 Manufacture of wiring devices 57 40 -17 Manufacture of fruit and vegetable juice 57 41 -16 Manufacture of cocoa, chocolate and sugar confectionery 55 46 -9 Other non-ferrous metal production 52 53 1 Repair and maintenance of other transport equipment 49 31 -18 Manufacture of light metal packaging 49 53 4 Other processing and preserving of fruit and vegetables 47 37 -10 Casting of steel 44 35 -9 Manufacture of other electronic and electric wires and 42 38 -4 cables Manufacture of dyes and pigments 42 48 6 Manufacture of perfumes and toilet preparations 40 48 8

2018 - 2022 Description 2018 Jobs 2022 Jobs Change Manufacture of irradiation, electromedical and 40 41 1 electrotherapeutic equipment Manufacture of computers and peripheral equipment 38 34 -4 Manufacture of brooms and brushes 37 38 1 Weaving of textiles 37 49 12 Manufacture of mortars 36 38 2 Manufacture of footwear 35 48 13 Support activities for animal production 34 37 3 Manufacture of ceramic sanitary fixtures 34 34 0 Manufacture of electronic components 33 24 -9 Support activities for crop production 33 28 -5 Manufacture of refractory products 30 22 -8 Manufacture of cutlery 30 30 0 Cutting, shaping and finishing of stone 27 20 -7 Manufacture of other inorganic basic chemicals 26 18 -8 Manufacture of other textiles n.e.c. 26 30 4 Manufacture of concrete products for construction 24 23 -1 purposes Binding and related services 23 18 -5 Manufacture of military fighting vehicles 21 23 2 Manufacture of loaded electronic boards 21 23 2 Manufacture of optical instruments and photographic 20 20 0 equipment Manufacture of jewellery and related articles 20 16 -4 Tanning and dressing of leather; dressing and dyeing of fur 17 13 -4 Distilling, rectifying and blending of spirits 17 16 -1 Repair and maintenance of ships and boats 15 18 3 Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products 15 13 -2 Operation of gravel and sand pits; mining of clays and 15 16 1 kaolin Manufacture of machinery for metallurgy 15 11 -4 Manufacture of leather clothes 14 12 -2 Silviculture and other forestry activities 13 11 -2 Manufacture of musical instruments 13 16 3 Manufacture of central heating radiators and boilers 12 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of machinery for textile, apparel and leather 12 12 0 production Manufacture of underwear 12 <10 Insf. Data Production of abrasive products 11 <10 Insf. Data Marine aquaculture 11 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of paper stationery 11 <10 Insf. Data Post-harvest crop activities 0 0 0 Seed processing for propagation 0 0 0 Gathering of wild growing non-wood products 0 0 0 Marine fishing 0 0 0 Freshwater fishing 0 0 0 Freshwater aquaculture 0 0 0 Mining of hard coal 0 0 0

2018 - 2022 Description 2018 Jobs 2022 Jobs Change Mining of lignite 0 0 0 Extraction of crude petroleum 0 0 0 Extraction of natural gas 0 0 0 Mining of iron ores 0 0 0 Mining of uranium and thorium ores 0 0 0 Mining of other non-ferrous metal ores 0 0 0 Mining of chemical and fertiliser minerals 0 0 0 Extraction of peat 0 0 0 Extraction of salt 0 0 0 Other mining and quarrying n.e.c. 0 0 0 Support activities for petroleum and natural gas extraction 0 0 0 Support activities for other mining and quarrying 0 0 0 Manufacture of margarine and similar edible fats 0 0 0 Manufacture of starches and starch products 0 0 0 Manufacture of macaroni, noodles, couscous and similar 0 0 0 farinaceous products Manufacture of sugar 0 0 0 Processing of tea and coffee 0 0 0 Manufacture of homogenised food preparations and 0 0 0 dietetic food Manufacture of wine from grape 0 0 0 Manufacture of other non-distilled fermented beverages 0 0 0 Manufacture of tobacco products 0 0 0 Manufacture of knitted and crocheted fabrics 0 0 0 Manufacture of pulp 0 0 0 Manufacture of wallpaper 0 0 0 Printing of newspapers 0 0 0 Manufacture of coke oven products 0 0 0 Manufacture of synthetic rubber in primary forms 0 0 0 Manufacture of explosives 0 0 0 Manufacture of man-made fibres 0 0 0 Manufacture of flat glass 0 0 0 Manufacture of ceramic insulators and insulating fittings 0 0 0 Manufacture of other technical ceramic products 0 0 0 Cold rolling of narrow strip 0 0 0 Precious metals production 0 0 0 Processing of nuclear fuel 0 0 0 Manufacture of magnetic and optical media 0 0 0 Manufacture of batteries and accumulators 0 0 0 Manufacture of non-electric domestic appliances 0 0 0 Manufacture of machinery for paper and paperboard 0 0 0 production Building of ships and floating structures 0 0 0 Hunting, trapping and related service activities <10 <10 Insf. Data Logging <10 <10 Insf. Data Support services to forestry <10 <10 Insf. Data Quarrying of ornamental and building stone, limestone, <10 <10 Insf. Data gypsum, chalk and slate

2018 - 2022 Description 2018 Jobs 2022 Jobs Change Processing and preserving of fish, crustaceans and molluscs <10 10 Insf. Data Processing and preserving of potatoes <10 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of oils and fats <10 <10 Insf. Data Operation of dairies and cheese making <10 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of ice cream <10 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of prepared feeds for farm animals <10 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of prepared pet foods <10 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of cider and other fruit wines <10 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of malt <10 <10 Insf. Data Preparation and spinning of textile fibres <10 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of carpets and rugs <10 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of cordage, rope, twine and netting <10 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of non-wovens and articles made from non- <10 <10 Insf. Data wovens, except apparel Manufacture of other technical and industrial textiles <10 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of articles of fur <10 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of knitted and crocheted hosiery <10 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of other knitted and crocheted apparel <10 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of assembled parquet floors <10 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of household and sanitary goods and of toilet <10 <10 Insf. Data requisites Reproduction of recorded media <10 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of fertilisers and nitrogen compounds <10 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of pesticides and other agrochemical products <10 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of essential oils <10 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of pharmaceutical preparations <10 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of rubber tyres and tubes; retreading and <10 <10 Insf. Data rebuilding of rubber tyres Manufacture of hollow glass <10 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of glass fibres <10 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of ceramic tiles and flags <10 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of ceramic household and ornamental articles <10 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of other ceramic products <10 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of cement <10 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of lime and plaster <10 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of plaster products for construction purposes <10 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of other articles of concrete, plaster and <10 <10 Insf. Data cement Lead, zinc and tin production <10 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of weapons and ammunition <10 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of consumer electronics <10 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of watches and clocks <10 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of fibre optic cables <10 0 Insf. Data Manufacture of office machinery and equipment (except <10 <10 Insf. Data computers and peripheral equipment) Manufacture of machinery for mining, quarrying and <10 <10 Insf. Data construction Building of pleasure and sporting boats <10 <10 Insf. Data

2018 - 2022 Description 2018 Jobs 2022 Jobs Change Manufacture of railway locomotives and rolling stock <10 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of motorcycles <10 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of other transport equipment n.e.c. <10 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of mattresses <10 <10 Insf. Data Striking of coins <10 <10 Insf. Data Manufacture of imitation jewellery and related articles <10 <10 Insf. Data Repair and maintenance of aircraft and spacecraft <10 <10 Insf. Data Total 68,736 68,129 -607 Source: EMSI Analytics Tool, 2020 Within the advanced manufacturing sector, manufacture of other furniture is projected to increase the highest by an additional 426 jobs by 2022 to reach 3,599 jobs. This is followed by machining with an additional 323 jobs, taking its total to 4,030 by 2022. The following graph shows the top ten industries that are projected to increase by the highest amount by 2022. Top 10 Industries Projects to Increase the Highest in the Number of Jobs by 2022

4,500 4,030 4,000 3,707 3,599 3,291 3,500 2,826 3,097 3,173 3,000 2,738 2,500 1,895 1,924 1,759 1,758 jobs 2,000 1,524 1,500 1,250 1,000 562 490 377 456 452 535 500 0 Manufacture Manufacture Finishing of Manufacture Repair of Manufacture Engineering Manufacture Machining Manufacture of medical of made-up textiles of metal machinery of lifting and activities and of paints, of other and dental textile structures handling related varnishes furniture instruments articles, and parts of equipment technical and similar and supplies except structures consultancy coatings, apparel printing ink and mastics

2018 Jobs 2022 Jobs

Source: EMSI Analytics Tool, 2020

3.3. Sector Skills Shortages

% of all Vacancies Which are Skills Shortage Vacancies

Arts & Other Services 15% Health & social work 21% Education 18% Public admin. no data Business Services 33% Financial Services no data Information & Communications no data Transport & Storage no data Hotels & restaurants 32% Wholesale & Retail 22% Construction 36% Manufacturing 33% Primary Sector & Utilities no data Black Country Total 27% West Midlands Total 25% England Total 22% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% % of all vacancies

Source: Employer Skills Survey 2017, LEP Summary Tables 27% of all vacancies are skills shortage vacancies, compared to 22% nationally. The graph above highlights the acute problem of skills shortage vacancies in certain sectors. Advanced manufacturing, defined in the graph as manufacturing, has a skills gap of 33%. This is a higher rate than other sectors in the Black Country, so employers will have a problem with hiring to fill skills gaps.

Staff Not Fully Proficient as a Percentage of Employment Arts & Other Services 4% Health & social work 2% Education 2% Public admin. no data Business Services 4% Financial Services 2% Information &… 2% Transport & Storage no data Hotels & restaurants 3% Wholesale & Retail 4% Construction 6% Manufacturing 3% Primary Sector &… no data Black Country Total 3% West Midlands Total 4% England Total 4% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% % of all staff

Source: Employer Skills Survey 2017, LEP Summary Tables

3% of staff are not fully proficient in the Black Country, compared to 4% nationally. In the advanced manufacturing sector, 3% of staff are not fully proficient. This sector does not have a big problem with skill shortages within the current employment base, this may be due to successful hiring of candidates with sufficient skills, or employers investing in training to train up staff who lack vital skills.

Staff Trained as Percentage of Total Staff Arts & Other Services 61% Health & social work 83% Education 82% Public admin. no data Business Services 58% Financial Services 79% Information & Communications 43% Transport & Storage 53% Hotels & restaurants 56% Wholesale & Retail 48% Construction 54% Manufacturing 24% Primary Sector & Utilities no data Black Country Total 56% West Midlands Total 58% England Total 62% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% % of all staff

Source: Employer Skills Survey 2017, LEP Summary Tables

In the Black Country, 56% of staff are trained as a percentage of all staff, compared to 62% of staff in England. 24% are trained in the advanced manufacturing sector, which is a low level. This may be due to a variety of reasons, e.g. training being too expensive or not having the capacity/time to train staff. Or even that staff are already proficient and do not need much training.

Training Days Per Staff Arts & Other Services 2.9 Health & social work 4.8 Education 4.3 Public admin. no data Business Services 2.0 Financial Services 3.8 Information & Communications 1.2 Transport & Storage 1.8 Hotels & restaurants 10.0 Wholesale & Retail 3.1 Construction 2.4 Manufacturing 1.7 Primary Sector & Utilities no data Black Country Total 3.5 West Midlands Total 3.4 England Total 4.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 training days

Source: Employer Skills Survey 2017, LEP Summary Tables On average, employees in the Black Country have 3.5 training days. In the advanced manufacturing sector this is much less at 1.7 training days. Given that the advanced manufacturing sector does not have a large number of staff trained, we would expect the lack of training is due to staff already being proficient in their roles.

Whether Employers Expect the Need For New Skills in Next 12 Months

Arts & Other Services 46% Health & social work 78% Education 78% Public admin. no data Business Services 73% Financial Services no data Information & Communications no data Transport & Storage 61% Hotels & restaurants 56% Wholesale & Retail 61% Construction 49% Manufacturing 53% Primary Sector & Utilities no data Black Country Total 61% West Midlands Total 63% England Total 62% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% % of employers

Source: Employer Skills Survey 2017, LEP Summary Tables 61% of employers in the Black Country expect the need for new skills in the next 12 months, compared to national levels at 62%. In the advanced manufacturing sector 53% of employers expect new skills from employees. Upskilling may be the preferred solution to this problem – that is, training current employees with new skills to ensure they can keep up with a changing work environment e.g. enhancements in digital technology. Upskilling may be cheaper for employers and more attractive, with a chance to ‘grow their own’. 4. Supply vs Demand 4.1. Provision Review In this section of ‘Supply vs Demand’ we will concentrate on the most significant areas of misalignment and gaps across the sector. Identifying which courses are currently over-supplying the labour market, which areas of labour market demand is currently being met and where there might be areas of opportunity for the development of new skill provision. Gap % Jobs Annual Between Course Area Completions Growth Openings Demand and (2019-2022) Provision Metal Work 4 375 371 0% Wood Crafts and Furniture Making 2 63 61 0%

Gap % Jobs Annual Between Course Area Completions Growth Openings Demand and (2019-2022) Provision Food and Drink Manufacturing 52 108 56 1% Printing 2 35 33 0% Manufacturing 526 552 26 1% Civil Engineering 8 31 23 3% Fashion, Textiles, Footwear and Leather 35 42 7 8% Manufacturing Packing 0 188 188 2% Computer Engineering 0 46 46 1% Upholstery 0 15 15 3% Ceramics and Glass Manufacturing 39 37 -2 1% Welding and Fabrication 105 84 -21 1% Heavy Equipment Maintenance and 56 3 -53 -1% Repair Electrical and Electronics Engineering 99 38 -61 2% Mechanical Engineering 159 86 -73 1% Plant Operations 134 37 -97 -1% Production and Manufacturing 340 82 -258 0% Engineering Engineering 2,591 691 -1,900 1%

Green: Areas where the provider base already offers courses, but the data indicates that there may be room to grow these to meet employment demand. Blue: Courses the provider base does not currently offer, indicating that there is potential for creating new courses to meet these skills needs. Yellow: Areas where the data suggests that the provider base is currently oversupplying the labour market to a significant level. Skills provision that is aligned to local jobs and industry demand not only helps providers with their Ofsted inspection but also helps to ensure learners are best placed to get employment using the skills they have learned, supply employers with the skills they need and support growth in the local and wider economy. This provision review identifies areas of misalignment in the Black Country for the advanced manufacturing sector: Strengths (course areas that are well met compared to industry demand) Course areas which have a gap between supply and demand, where that there is less provision than supply is possibly where there is still potential to increase provision locally. These include the disciplines highlighted green in the table. Disciplines in the green section of the table that also have a net positive change in jobs in the next few years are seen as extra strengths to the area. Opportunities (course areas that are currently under supplied compared to demand) Other opportunity areas include those highlighted in blue with a small gap, as these are the disciplines which are sought after but have no provision locally. There is room for courses to be developed in these disciplines to meet local employer needs.

Threats (course areas that are well met or oversupplied compared to industry demand) Disciplines with too much provision and not enough employer demand will lead to an oversaturated supply of labour in certain disciplines. Graduates from these courses will find it difficult to find employment locally, and may have to move out of the area to find work in their field. People skilled in this discipline might have to upskill or retain in other disciplines to find work elsewhere. Courses in this group include those highlighted in yellow with large gaps. The best way to implement change is to prioritise interventions based on biggest misalignments and gaps. Disciplines with a low uptake e.g. those in blue, need extra resources to highlight the opportunities in these occupations. These strengths, opportunities and threats can be clearly identified in the graph below.

Openings vs Completers

Engineering Production and Manufacturing Engineering Plant Operations Mechanical Engineering Electrical and Electronics Engineering Heavy Equipment Maintenance and Repair Welding and Fabrication Ceramics and Glass Manufacturing Upholstery Computer Engineering Packing Fashion, Textiles, Footwear and Leather Manufacturing Civil Engineering Manufacturing Printing Food and Drink Manufacturing Wood Crafts and Furniture Making Metal Work 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000

Annual Openings Completions

Source: EMSI Analytics Tool, 2020 4.2. Future Drivers of Skills Looking forward, according to UKCES future drivers of skills within the advanced manufacturing sector will include: • Accessing finance to bring new products and technologies to market, which is increasing the focus on business development skills among senior managers. • Increasing investment in R&D, which is stimulating demand for highly skilled graduates and increasing collaboration between research centres and industry.

• Meeting low carbon policies and legislation, which is increasing investment in energy-efficient technologies and driving research in lightweight materials. • Maximising export opportunities, which is considered a major growth opportunity for UK manufacturers.

• Taking advantage of potentially transformative enabling technologies, such 3D printing, composites and robotics, which could potentially transform the sector. In response, the High Value Manufacturing (HVM) Catapult, a group of manufacturing R&D centres in the UK, with partners from the National Physical Laboratory (NPL) and support from the Gatsby Foundation, have worked to identify and capture good practice on the development of the future workforce. Their work identifies that currently just 6% of those aged between 16 and 23 are contemplating a future in advanced manufacturing yet 23% are looking to digital/technology suggesting young people don’t realise the extent to which manufacturing now exploits advanced technology such as machine learning and big data. They also believe that the rapid pace of technological change demands more modular and flexible training courses that can be used to upskill and reskill the existing workforce. Curriculum development undertaken in partnership between education providers produce highly modularised courses, together with a responsive teacher training system, ensures that content and pedagogy can promptly accommodate changes in skills needs. 4.3. Impact of Brexit Analysis by the House of Commons Library suggests that 42% of UK exports were in manufacturing in 2018, and that Brexit has already and will have a large impact on the sector, where some manufacturers are concerned about future investment, cross border supply chains, and access to foreign labour. A large number of UK manufacturers employ citizens from the European Union in their businesses, but once free movement ends, a decrease in the availability of EU nationals may worsen the existing skills shortage. The findings of the recent Black Country Growth Hub: Brexit Preparation Report, which surveyed 93 businesses from the advanced manufacturing sector seems to suggest that they are more concerned about Brexit when compared to other industries. For example, 83.9% (78) were aware of the latest HMRC guidance. Overall half of businesses interviewed from the advanced manufacturing sector had considered the potential impact of Brexit on them (64.5%), and additionally 67.7% had considered the potential impact of a change in the UK / EU trade relationship on their suppliers and customers. 4.4. Impact of Covid-19 The previous quarter had already highlighted emerging downturns pre-Covid-19 but many were feeling positive about the future. Unfortunately, latest results show the pandemic has undone this. 2019 had several episodes of last-minute safety stockpiling in anticipation of each EU Brexit deadline. Nevertheless, manufacturers were positive. Key findings in Q2 Survey are as follows: • Output plunges to lowest level in 30-year survey history • UK and export orders at lows that are comparable to global financial crisis • Employment and investment suffer significant cutbacks • Just over 10% of companies operating at full capacity • Industry forecast to contract by almost 10% in 2020 • Employment balance dropped by 22% • Investment intentions have flipped on head • Prices and exports have dropped and margins have collapsed further into negative territory as orders have disappeared cutting cash flow and profits. These findings illustrate the severity of crisis facing manufacturers of all sizes and in all sectors across the UK. Approximately half of the UK regions reported negative business confidence this quarter, with the other half only marginally positive. Both East and West Midlands report strongly negative balances in relation to expectations for manufacturing output, orders and employment over the next three

months. The East Midlands manufacturers expectations for orders over the next three months are the lowest of any English region. From the perspective of the wider Midlands Economy, it is a major concern that manufacturing sectors identified as amongst the region’s strongest performers in advance of the pandemic – such as automotive and aerospace – are now clearly amongst the most threatened sectors in current circumstances. While there are signs of production in the automotive sector picking-up, prospects for civil aviation linked manufacturing are reported to be very poor. As the furlough scheme begins to taper-off over the summer, redundancies on a significant scale are thought likely. International aerospace and defence engineering company Meggitt has revealed that its organic revenue for the second quarter of its financial year will be about 30 per cent lower because of the Covid-19 pandemic. However, there has been positive news of new investment deals and opportunities, e.g. a local manufacturing support project secures extension funding which will be delivered through sector specific support and grants, assisting the manufacturing sector to build resilience and improve processes post Covid for Black Country manufacturing company MPG. 4.5. Impact of the climate emergency Manufacturing is a heavy polluting industry which will need to evolve to reduce their energy usage and decouple production from carbon emissions. The Black Country manufacturing sector will benefit from a UKRI project which plans to decarbonise the industrial cluster of the Black Country, whilst also incorporating circular economy principles into the process to encourage the reuse of waste and reduce the large waste stream the sector produces. 5. Conclusions 5.1. Summary Although the advanced manufacturing sector is expected to decline in size up to 2022 both in the Black Country and nationally, the sector is still widely reported to be an area of significant potential growth. This growth is likely to be due to the increasing use of technology to generate efficiencies in the production process, and employers developing innovative new products that can be traded internationally. This ever-evolving sector needs to embrace new and improved technologies. However, this means that workers need to be able to keep up with these market and technological changes. The modern advanced manufacturing workforce needs to have a completely different set of skills than the one required just a few years ago, and a lack of proper training will contribute to the widening skills gap in the industry. Growing the manufacturing workforce will potentially lead to higher levels of innovation and productivity, allowing manufacturers to stay competitive and to contribute to both the Black Country and UK’s economy. Reducing a skills shortage that has been years in the making may be a challenge for many; nonetheless, knowing where this gap is coming from and how it can affect advanced manufacturing, will help businesses, workers, students and organisations to work towards a solution together. 5.2. Recommendations The evidence presented in this report indicates manufacturers are struggling to upskill their current workforce with the current quantity and quality of provisions available, and also the anticipated increase in recruitment pressures linked to the pace of technological change.

In order to address this, increasing the number of apprenticeships in manufacturing is a start. Apprenticeships help to increase awareness of the industry and to dispel the many misconceptions surrounding it and allow young people to have first-hand, on-the-job experience of the manufacturing world. Other ways may include helping businesses build partnerships with universities and other further education colleges to identify placements for students. This collaboration may also help garner innovation in new product design and delivery whilst also potentially offering access to specialist equipment. Longer-term increased working with schools and better engagement with young people to shape and improve their perceptions of advanced manufacturing will help to build a workforce for the future. This could potentially be done by working in tandem with external delivery partners like the Careers and Enterprise Company or Chamber of Commerce. Finally, consider new ways to market careers in the advanced manufacturing sector to young people. This may involve digital campaigns targeted specifically at the desired age group showing how businesses within the sector match their own career aspirations. 5.3. Action Planning It will be the responsibility of the Black Country Local Enterprise Partnership (LEP) and its key stakeholders to review the recommendations, develop a strategy and agree an action plan to address the challenges and opportunities identified within this report.