Gateway Cities Region Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Forecast

Note: This regional greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventory and forecast includes emissions from the 26 Gateway Cities that participated in the Climate Action Plan (CAP) Framework project, as identified in this report. This includes all cities except Long Beach, which is independently developing its own GHG emissions inventory and local CAP. For more information on the City of Long Beach Climate Action and Adaptation Plan, see http://www.lbds.info/climateactionlb . Regional Summary The Gateway Cities are a group of 27 cities located in Southeast County. The area began as small agrarian communities with many communities specializing in dairy farming. The years during and post-World War II brought economic growth and rapid urbanization as the area grew into a thriving manufacturing and industrial hub. Today the region is still a prosperous industrial, commercial, and manufacturing area with a diverse population. Demographics The Gateway Cities span 203 square miles in Southeast Los Angeles County. The Region’s demographic breakdown in 2010 was 63% Hispanic, 10% Caucasian, 10% Asian-American, 9% African-American, and 8% Other. 1 Table 1, below, details the actual (2010) population, housing, and employment demographics and the projected demographics for the three forecast years.

1 Gateway Cities Council of Governments, Demographics of the Gateway Cities COG Region. Available at: http://www.gatewaycogsiteprospector.org/demographics.html Table 1: Regional Socioeconomic Data a

Socioeconomic Data Projected Growth Rates Demographic 2010- 2010- 2010- 2010 2020 2030 2040 2020 2030 2040

Population 1,279,488 1,309,743 1,340,580 1,383,460 2.4% 4.8% 8.1% Housing 349,041 362,812 372,072 384,102 3.9% 6.6% 10.0% Employment 566,474 607,550 624,238 645,570 7.3% 10.2% 14.0% Notes: a Does not include City of Long Beach (approximate pop 470,000) and unincorporated areas of Los Angeles County within Gateway Cities region (approximate pop 350,000). Source: Southern Association of Governments Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy and travel demand model. Data processed and organized by Fehr & Peers.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions The Gateway Cities Regional Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventory quantifies the annual GHG emissions resulting from activities within the region by residents, businesses, and local government. The regional inventory is compiled from the community-wide inventories developed for the 26 members of the Gateway cites that participate in the Gateway Cities CAP Framework project (i.e., all Gateway Cities except the City of Long Beach), to provide a regional understanding of where GHG emissions are originating and informs development of effective strategies and actions to reduce emissions.

The region’s baseline Community GHG Inventory for 2010 forms the basis for setting emissions reduction goals and measuring future progress. Forecasts of the region’s future emissions are based on current best estimates for population, households, and job growth within the region under “business-as-usual” conditions, and under an “adjusted” forecast scenario that includes the effect of state-mandated GHG reduction programs.

The boundaries of analysis, along with the methodology and assumptions used to develop the Gateway Cities’ regional GHG inventory and future projections, are included as Appendix A.

2010 Community Emissions Inventory The emission sources and activities chosen for inclusion in the regional inventory are based on the reporting framework for local governments developed by ICLEI in their U.S. Community Protocol for Accounting and Reporting of Greenhouse Gas Emissions. 2 As such, emissions in the community inventory include those that derive from sources located within the jurisdiction and from activities by community members for which the local government has significant influence to mitigate. This generally includes activities taking place within the Region’s geopolitical boundary where the local government has jurisdictional authority, as well as community-related activities taking place outside of regional limits that are attributable to community activities (e.g., landfill waste from residents). Note that emissions sources at the are not included in the Gateway Cities Regional GHG Emissions Inventory as they fall under the Port’s jurisdiction and not under the jurisdiction of the cities participating in the CAP Framework.

2 ICLEI is a non-profit organization connecting a network of local governments dedicated to sustainability, resilience, and climate action, with more than 1000 cities, towns, and counties around the globe

2 Gateway Cities Region 2010 Community GHG Inventory Report Large Stationary Sources Many of the region’s large stationary sources are regulated by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) under the state’s Cap and Trade program, which requires that power generators, refineries, and other large stationary emitters that emit more than 25,000 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year (MTCO 2e) reduce their emissions over time in line with the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB 32). 3 With CARB as the enforcing agency, regions generally do not have jurisdictional authority over these sources. For this reason, regions with large stationary sources typically remove those sources from their baseline GHG inventory and business-as-usual (BAU) forecast when developing a climate action plan, in order to focus on sources over which they have jurisdictional control or influence.

Table 2 lists the large stationary sources in the Gateway Cities region (excluding Long Beach) that are regulated by California’s Cap and Trade program, as reported under CARB’s Regulation for the Mandatory Reporting of Greenhouse Gas Emissions (MRR).4

Table 2: Regional Large Stationary Sources Regulated by Cap and Trade a

City Source 2010 GHG Emissions (MTCO2e) b Avalon Edison (SCE) - Pebbly Beach 22,365 Commerce Commerce Refuse to Energy Facility 53,226 Compton Demenno Kerdoon 27,461 Industry Quemetco, Inc. 68,018 Norwalk Southern California Edison - Center Peaker, 90650 3,668 Norwalk Wheelabrator Norwalk Energy Company, Inc. 48,232 Paramount Carlton Forge Works 26,075 Paramount Paramount Petroleum Corporation 186,803 Signal Hill Signal Hill Petroleum West Unit 27,212 South Gate Lunday-Thagard Company 40,228 Southgate Techni-Cast Corp. 3,287 Vernon Owens-Brockway Glass Container Inc. 58,016 Vernon Malburg Generating Station 305,963 Whittier Landfill and Energy Recovery 362,323 Whittier Savage Canyon Landfill 15,887 Total Emissions Regulated by Cap and Trade 1,248,763 Total Emissions Included in Regional Inventory 437,100 Notes: a Not including facilities located in City of Long Beach. b Includes non-biogenic emissions only c Day-Glo Color Corporation reports for large stationary sources, but is included in the Cudahy inventory as a small stationary source due to its relatively small contribution to emissions. d Some or all emissions accounted for in regional inventory (electricity sector) e Some or all emissions accounted for in regional inventory (solid waste sector)

3 Collectively, these sources represent approximately 85 percent of the state’s total emissions. 4 CARB, Mandatory GHG Reporting Data (2010). Available at: https://ghgreport.arb.ca.gov/eats/carb/

2010 Community GHG Inventory Report Gateway Cities Region 3 As noted in Table 2, emissions from some regulated sources are partially or fully accounted for in the region’s Community GHG Inventory as either electricity end use (e.g., Vernon’s Malburg Generating Station) or as solid waste disposal (fugitive methane from the Puente Hills Landfill). As such, these sources are not included in the Gateway Cities Regional Inventory. As indicated in Table 2, large stationary sources regulated by Cap and Trade emitted a total of approximately 1,248,763 MTCO2e in 2010, and contributed approximately 437,100 MTCO2e to the 2010 (baseline) Regional GHG Inventory.

Community Inventory Including Large Stationary Sources As shown in Table 3 and Figure 1 , the large stationary sources contributing to the Regional Inventory amounted to approximately 11.7 percent of total GHG emissions in 2010.

Table 3: Regional 2010 GHG Emissions – Including Large Stationary Sources a GHG Emissions Sector (MTCO2e) a Percent of Total Residential Electricity 537,162 5.0% Residential Natural Gas 604,071 5.6% Commercial/Industrial Electricity 1,520,945 14.2% Commercial/Industrial Natural Gas 870,900 8.1% Large Stationary Sources (Regulated by Cap-and-Trade) a 1,248,763 11.7% Small Stationary Sources 8,503 0.1% On-Road Transportation 4,445,005 41.5% Off-Road Equipment 255,305 2.4% Agriculture 8 0.0% Solid Waste 565,045 5.3% Wastewater Treatment 57,769 0.5% Water Conveyance 139,318 1.3% Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCPs) 262,680 2.5% Transit 95,309 0.9% Freight Rail 91,454 0.9% Ferries 10,233 0.1% Total Emissions 10,712,468 100.0% Notes: a Does not include facilities located in City of Long Beach or sources for which emissions could potentially be double counted, such as power plants (electricity sector) and landfills (solid waste sector). b MTCO2e is an aggregated measure of various GHGs with different global warming potentials. The unit is calculated by multiplying the mass of each GHG (CO 2, N 2O, CH 4) by its global warming potential. Sources: Los Angeles Regional Collaborative for Climate Action and Sustainability (LARC); UCLA Energy Atlas; CARB, Mandatory GHG Reporting Data (2010); and CARB, OFFROAD Emissions Model (2007)

4 Gateway Cities Region 2010 Community GHG Inventory Report Figure 1: 2010 Community Emissions by Sector – Including Large Stationary Sources a

Water Conveyance Transit Freight Rail 1.3% 0.9% 0.9% Wastewater SLCPs Ferries Treatment 2.5% 0.1% Solid Waste 0.5% 5.3% Agriculture 0.0% Off-Road Equipment 2.4% Energy 33.0%

On-Road Transportation 41.5% Large Stationary Sources (Cap-and- Trade) 11.7%

Small Stationary Sources 0.1%

Notes: a Large stationary sources do not include facilities located in City of Long Beach, or sources for which emissions could potentially be double counted, such as power plants (electricity sector) and landfills (solid waste sector).

Community Inventory Excluding Large Stationary Sources For climate action planning, local jurisdictions typically focus on GHG emissions sources that they control or influence. Figure 2 provides a comparison of the Region’s 2010 emissions inventory with and without large stationary sources that are regulated under Cap and Trade.

2010 Community GHG Inventory Report Gateway Cities Region 5 Figure 2: Regional 2010 GHG Inventory with and without Large Stationary Sources a

12,000,000 Ferries

Freight Rail 10,000,000 Transit

8,000,000 SLCPs

Water Conveyance

6,000,000 Wastewater Treatment

Agriculture 4,000,000 Off-Road Equipment Total Emissions Total Emissions (MTCO2e)

On-Road Transportation 2,000,000 Large Stationary Sources (Cap- and-Trade) Energy - Gateway Cities with Large Gateway Cities without Stationary Sources Large Stationary Sources

Notes: a The comparison does not include facilities located in City of Long Beach, or sources for which emissions could potentially be double counted, such as power plants (electricity sector) and landfills (solid waste sector).

The Region’s 2010 GHG Inventory without large stationary sources is considered the Region’s baseline GHG inventory for planning purposes. Table 4 summarizes the 2010 baseline inventory, by sector. With large stationary sources removed, on-road transportation is the greatest contributor to total emissions, making up 47.0 percent of the Region’s emissions. Total energy (electricity and natural gas) used by commercial/industrial buildings is the second biggest contributor to the adjusted inventory (25.3 percent), followed by total energy used by residential buildings (12.1 percent). 5 Figure 3 provides a graphical depiction of each sector’s contribution to the adjusted inventory.

5 Note that industrial energy emissions refer to the energy purchased and consumed by industrial uses and is differentiated from large stationary source emissions, which refer to emissions as a result of industrial processes.

6 Gateway Cities Region 2010 Community GHG Inventory Report Table 4: Regional 2010 GHG Emissions – Excluding Large Stationary Sources a Sector GHG Emissions (MTCO2e) Percent of Total Residential Electricity 537,162 5.7% Residential Natural Gas 604,071 6.4% Commercial/Industrial Electricity 1,520,945 16.1% Commercial/Industrial Natural Gas 870,900 9.2% Small Stationary Sources 8,503 0.1% On-Road Transportation 4,445,005 47.0% Off-Road Equipment 255,305 2.7% Agriculture 7 0.0% Solid Waste 565,045 6.0% Wastewater Treatment 57,769 0.6% Water Conveyance 139,318 1.5% Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCPs) 262,680 2.8% Transit 95,309 1.0% Freight Rail 91,454 1.0% Ferries 10,233 0.1% Total Emissions 9,463,704 100.0% Notes: a Not including facilities located in City of Long Beach.

Figure 3: 2010 Emissions by Sector – Excluding Large Stationary Sources a

Wastewater Water SLCPs Transit Freight Rail Treatment Conveyance 2.8% 1.0% 1.0% Ferries 0.6% 1.5% 0.1% Solid Waste 6.0%

Off-Road Equipment Energy 2.7% 37.3%

On-Road Transportation 47.0% Small Stationary Sources 0.1%

Notes: a Not including facilities located in City of Long Beach.

2010 Community GHG Inventory Report Gateway Cities Region 7 Figure 4, below, provides additional detail for the energy emissions in the Region’s adjusted inventory, while Figure 5 provides additional detail by vehicle class for on-road emissions. On-road emissions were estimated using CARB’s EMFAC2017. Figure 5 depicts a sector-by- sector breakdown of 2010 emissions for each 26 Gateway Cities participating in the CAP Framework project.

Figure 4: Energy Emissions Breakdown, Excluding Large Stationary Sources a

Residential Commercial/Industrial Electricity Natural Gas 15% 25% Residential Natural Gas 17%

Commercial/Industrial Electricity 43%

Notes: a Not including facilities located in City of Long Beach.

Figure 5: On-Road Emissions Breakdown by Vehicle Class Heavy Duty 7.0%

Light/Medium Duty 93.0%

Note: Light/Medium duty includes EMFAC2017 categories LDA, LDT1,LDT2, MDV, and MCY. Heavy duty includes EMFAC2017 categories LHDT1, LHDT2, MHDT, HHDT, and MH. Source: https://www.arb.ca.gov/emfac/2017/

8 Gateway Cities Region 2010 Community GHG Inventory Report Figure 5: 2010 Community Emissions by City and Sector – without Large Stationary Sources

2010 Community GHG Inventory Report Gateway Cities Region 9 Business as Usual (BAU) Forecasts The business-as-usual (BAU) community emissions forecasts for the Region are based purely on the effect that local growth (population, jobs, and housing) would have on the Region’s baseline emissions in the absence of GHG reduction programs. BAU forecasts are useful in climate action planning because they provide the basis against which GHG reduction programs can be quantified in terms of their ability to reduce emissions at key planning horizons (e.g., the local General Plan horizon).

Regionally, total emissions generated by community activities in 2010 were 9,463,704 metric

tons CO 2e (MTCO 2e). Using the socioeconomic growth forecasts provided in Table 1, BAU forecasts were developed at ten-year intervals out to 2040, 6 as shown in Table 5. As shown in

Figure 6, BAU forecasts of community emissions are 9,798,466 MTCO 2e for 2020, 10,078,005

MTCO 2e for 2030, and 10,372,093 MTCO 2e for 2040, representing increases of 3.5 percent, 6.5 percent and 9.6 percent, respectively, from 2010 levels. Note that the BAU forecasts do not include the large stationary sources listed in Table 1 since the local jurisdictions do not have control over those sources.

Table 5: BAU Forecasts for GHG Emissions (MT CO2e, without large stationary sources) a Sector 2010 2020 2030 2040 Residential Electricity 537,162 553,997 570,103 589,480 Residential Natural Gas 604,071 626,899 642,306 662,588 Commercial/Industrial Electricity 1,520,945 1,596,092 1,634,252 1,682,944 Commercial/Industrial Natural Gas 870,900 935,451 959,624 990,416 Small Stationary Sources 8,503 8,713 8,498 9,142 On-Road Transportation 4,445,005 4,545,698 4,583,941 4,652,507 Off-Road Equipment 255,305 273,708 295,099 315,983 Agriculture 7 5 7 2 Solid Waste 565,045 666,320 686,002 710,460 Wastewater Treatment 57,769 59,135 60,527 62,463 Water Conveyance 139,318 140,620 144,095 148,940 Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCPs) 262,680 391,829 493,551 547,168 Transit 95,309 98,992 101,446 104,761 Freight Rail 91,454 94,988 97,343 100,524 Ferries 10,233 10,628 10,892 11,248 Total Emissions 9,463,704 9,798,466 10,078,005 10,372,093 Notes: a Not including facilities located in City of Long Beach.

It is important to reiterate that BAU forecasts assume no change to the vehicle efficiency standards, building energy standards (i.e., Title 24, Part 6), and grid electricity emission factors that were in place in 2010. Since 2010, vehicles have become more fuel efficient, Title 24 building standards have become more stringent, and grid electricity has become less carbon

6 2040 represents the planning horizon of SCAG’s current Regional Transportation Plan (SCAG, 2017)

10 Gateway Cities Region 2010 Community GHG Inventory Report intensive. Thus, the BAU forecasts presented here represent a worst case scenario of future emissions.

Figure 6: BAU Emissions Forecasts (without large stationary sources) a

12,000,000 Ferries

Freight Rail 10,000,000 Transit

SLCPs 8,000,000 Water Conveyance Wastewater 6,000,000 Treatment Solid Waste

Emissions Emissions (MTCO2e) Agriculture 4,000,000 Off-Road Equipment On-Road 2,000,000 Transportation Small Stationary Sources 0 Energy 2010 2020 2030 2040

Notes: a Not including facilities located in City of Long Beach.

2010 Community GHG Inventory Report Gateway Cities Region 11