SUBMISSION FROM THE SCOTTISH ASSOCIATION FOR PUBLIC TRANSPORT – 17 SEPTEMBER 2007

Abolition of Bridge Tolls (Scotland) Bill

1 Overview

2 Impact of Abolition of Road Tolls on the

3 Public Transport

4 Long Term Strategy

1 OVERVIEW

Our Association shares the widespread concern that abolition of tolls on the Forth and Tay bridges is a populist promise that has been made without any regard for transport, fiscal or environmental strategy. This development can only increase bridge traffic and worsen road congestion on the Forth road bridge and on the approaches to west . This will effectively disadvantage users of the Forth road bridge by increasing road congestion and journey times, most likely incurring higher congestion costs on the users than the direct monetary savings derived from the abolition of tolls. Furthermore, coupled with the 's opposition to the Edinburgh Tram and EARL projects, this makes it clear that a sustainable transport strategy for and the Lothians is lacking. In our evidence following, our association gives our perspective on toll abolition on the Forth road bridge. Our submission also focuses on positive developments to improve the attractiveness of public transport which should be urgently considered if gridlock is to be avoided on the Forth road bridge and the roads into Edinburgh.

2 Impact of Abolition of Road Tolls on the Forth Road Bridge

2.1 CAR TRAFFIC The number of road vehicles crossing the Forth Bridge has been almost stable since 2002. 23.4m vehicles crossed in 2002 compared to 23.7 in 2006, a slight fall on the 23.8m of 2005. Abolishing road tolls can be expected to destabilise this situation, and increase traffic by as much as around 25%, as experienced on the since tolls were abolished. A rise of traffic of this magnitude on the Forth road bridge towards 30 million would have a disproportionately larger impact on congestion delays. 2.2 PEAK CONGESTION Abolishing tolls loses the opportunity to introduce differential charges as a means of spreading traffic away from the peaks. A higher congestion charge at peak times, with low or no tolls at quiet times, has in the past been suggested as a means of reducing peak congestion. 2.3 COMMERCIAL TRAFFIC There is potential for the new and upgraded Kincardine bridges to absorb some of the commercial traffic from the Forth road bridge. This could have been assisted by increasing Forth bridge tolls for commercial vehicles, and using the revenue to invest in upgrading the approach roads through Fife to the Kincardine bridges. Abolition of tolls on the Forth road bridge is, conversely, likely to lead to some diversion of commercial traffic including HGVs from the to the Forth bridge. 2.4 BRIDGE DETERIORATION Any increase in traffic, particularly HGVs, is likely to accelerate deterioration of the bridge and worsen the effect of lane closures when remedial work is undertaken.

2.5 TRANSPORT FINANCE CRISIS It is ironic that the commitment to abolish tolls has been given at the same time as the cost of Forth road crossings is about to escalate. The cost of work to resolve the cable corrosion problems on the Forth road bridge has yet to be quantified. Provision of a second road bridge, which is unlikely to be complete before 2016, is predicted to cost between £1.5 billion and £2.3 billion at 2006 prices. As in the case of the Severn crossing, this could involve tolls of £4 to £7 per single trip, plus higher charges for the extra construction and maintenance costs attributable to HGVs. The loss of toll revenue and increased need for maintenance and capital funding could have a severe impact on the Scottish transport budget and programme, particularly in view of the expected tightening in the UK Autumn Spending Review. We understand that funding arrangements for a new Forth road bridge have not yet been agreed between the Treasury and Scottish Government. Without any future contribution from the users of the Forth road crossings, transport programmes in less affluent parts of Scotland will have to be cut back to fund construction of a second Forth road bridge. Transport Scotland's programme of rail electrification, which will contribute to achieving the Governments target reduction in CO2 emissions, will also be at risk. Other "Tier 3" rail projects at risk in the July 2007 rail High Level Output Statement include upgrades to the Perth-Inverness and -Inverness railways, more capacity on Ayrshire trains, and improved rail connections across Glasgow. The Scottish Government should be asked for a commitment that future transport developments throughout Scotland will not be cancelled, delayed or cut back as a result of funding toll abolition and maintenance and capacity upgrades to the Forth road crossing, which is in Scotland's most affluent commuting area.

3 Public Transport

The political commitment to abolish road tolls, reducing the cost of car commuting, makes it all the more important to give a parallel commitment to provide better, more affordable public transport across the Forth. This is the only option available to tackle growing road congestion if tolls are abolished. Indeed, even if a second Forth crossing is provided by 2016, road capacity on the approaches to Edinburgh will be unable to cope with additional car traffic crossing the Forth. Greater use of public transport is therefore essential now and in the longer term. 3.1 RAIL FARES Free Forth crossings for cars at all times of day contrasts with a peak hour surcharge on rail fares. This is a perverse financial incentive to switch from train to car commuting, increasing peak congestion on the bridge and on the western approaches to Edinburgh, to everyone's disadvantage. The Scottish Government should provide a specific subsidy targeted at removing peak surcharges on rail fares from Fife to Edinburgh, and providing increased rail capacity (see below). 3.2 RAIL CAPACITY Five factors constrain the ability of rail to carry additional traffic at peak hours: 1. The size of the ScotRail train fleet, which is fully utilised at peak hours 2. Seating capacity on the trains 3. Rail headway on the Forth bridge 4. Capacity into Edinburgh Waverley 5. The difficulty of using rail to easily reach destinations outwith the city centre Eight trains arrive in Edinburgh from Fife during the morning peak hour. Ideally to attract more car commuters to use rail, a more frequent timetable could be operated in the morning peak from Fife to Edinburgh, and back to Fife in the evening peak, with: • Kirkcaldy line trains every 15 minutes • Dunfermline line trains every 15 minutes • half-hourly limited stop expresses to and from Additional ScotRail rolling stock would be needed for this. Alternatively there may be a possibility to provide some extra capacity from Fife by starting some morning Anglo-Scottish trains north of the Forth. East Coast, Cross- Country, and West Coast franchises all operate diesel trains based overnight in Scotland. Currently there are Virgin trains from Dundee via Fife to Edinburgh at 06.38 (continuing to Birmingham) and 07.33 (continuing to Bournemouth) giving useful peak hour capacity into Edinburgh. There may be potential to investigate rescheduling East Coast Aberdeen-London, West Coast Edinburgh-Birmingham and planned TransPennine Edinburgh-Manchester services to allow the trains to provide additional morning peak services through Fife into Edinburgh. Corresponding northbound arrangements could be made in the evening peak. This needs co-operation by Transport Scotland, the Department for Transport, and train operating companies. Network Rail would have to assess the capability of the upgraded track and signalling at Waverley to accommodate up to10 trains on the Fife line during the peak hours. An extra signal on the Forth Bridge could also be required. Widening the range of destinations south of the Forth that can be reached easily by public transport from Fife is discussed in section 3.5.

3.3 EXPANSION OF PARK AND RIDE The feasibility of further extending the Ferrytoll bus P+R should be investigated. A strategic P+R car park could be provided at Rosyth station. The potential for further increases in local P+R car park provision at all stations in Fife should be assessed.

3.4 BUS and FERRY DEVELOPMENTS Cross-Forth bus services could be expanded through Route Development Grants. Following the success of the Stagecoach hovercraft trial in July 2007, fast ferry routes from Burntisland to Granton, or Kirkcaldy to Leith, should be positively assessed, connecting by bus and, in future, tram, to give good penetration of Edinburgh. 3.5 WIDENING the PUBLIC TRANSPORT MARKET The majority of public transport trips are made to central Edinburgh. Car is the easiest option for reaching other destinations including west Edinburgh and West Lothian. Establishing the type of integrated public transport network commonplace in European cities would widen the potential journeys that can be made by train and bus. The Edinburgh Tram project is an opportunity to create a strategic new rail/tram/bus interchange at Gogar. Integrated ticketing and easy interchange between trains and trams would allow journeys to be made from any station in Fife to any stop on the tram network including and Edinburgh Park. Rail/tram interchange at Haymarket and Waverley will improve through journeys from Fife to other destinations including Leith. A comprehensive Bus Quality Contract strategy for the SESTRAN area would enable full co-ordination of bus and train ticketing, routes and timetables to further increase the range of destinations easily reached by rail and bus.

4 LONG TERM STRATEGY In the long term, we need to reduce the need to travel through the provision of more family-friendly, affordable housing south of the Forth, and more employment opportunities in Fife and Tayside. Public transport needs to be further boosted, and a price clearly levied on vehicles crossing the Forth at congested periods. Demand management applies to the railways - the peak fare is almost double the off- peak return. Why should such basic principles of transport management not apply to road travel also? With future progress towards alternative energy sources for road transport, including hydrogen and electrically powered vehicles, the existing system of oil fuel duty and vehicle excise duty will have to be revised. A national system based on road charging, related to actual mileage travelled, congestion on the roads used, and CO2 emissions, would be fairer than the current tax regime. It would also improve congestion management, carbon emissions, and give incentives to use public transport. The challenge for politicians is to introduce a usage-related road charging system that is seen as being fair, and not perceived as merely a way of increasing taxation. Against this future background, the abolition of bridge tolls is a populist but retrograde step away from direct charging to manage use of limited road capacity. A package of public transport improvements, as outlined in this paper, is needed to counteract predicted worsening of road congestion should tolls be abolished.