Democracy Under Attack the Socionomic Nolan Chart Helps Us Map Current Events by Alan Hall

Democracy Under Attack The Socionomic Nolan Chart Helps Us Map Current Events By Alan Hall

[Editor’s note: In the West, few institutions are as revered as democracy. Yet socionomics holds that social mood pushes around

even society’s most sacred norms. Where Courtesy abcnews.go.com will politics end up after a historic bear market? As Hall shows with his break- through “Socionomic Nolan Chart,” the only certainty is an increasingly fragmented process.]

Expressions of the large-degree negative social mood trend now seem to be accelerating A Growing Appetite: A protester on Wall Street displays his predisposition. and putting aspects of our Socionomic Nolan Chart (Figure 1) into motion. (For a review of the chart, tions, boycotts and strikes in New York, London, Spain, see our April 2010 issue). So forceful is the mood shift Greece, India and Israel: “wariness, even contempt, to- that even democracy itself, an idealized form of govern- ward traditional politicians and the democratic political ment during the Grand Supercycle uptrend from 1784, is process they preside over”4 (emphasis added). now coming under more-widespread attack from within “We’re the first generation to say that voting is democracies. It is still early in this process. One should worthless,” said a young Spanish woman. A young In- not assume that democracy, or at least its current form, dian woman said, “We elect the people’s representatives will survive the expected Grand Supercycle downtrend so they can solve our problems, [but] that is not actually in social mood. happening. Corruption is ruling our country.” A young In the United States, Peter Orzsag, the former direc- Israeli man said, “the political system has abandoned tor of President Obama’s Office of Management and its citizens.” Budget, wrote an article, “Too Much of a Good Thing: One woman, who told USA Today she walked 200 Why We Need Less Democracy.” Orszag said U.S. miles to protest in Washington, said, “We are the 99 “political polarization was growing worse – harming percent. We don’t have a government that represents Washington’s ability to do the basic, necessary work us. That is the message.”5 of governing.” Beverly Purdue, the governor of North Sociologists flounder when they try to explain Carolina, called for suspending elections for two years why the world’s young adults are suddenly taking to so that Congress can “get over the partisan bickering the streets: 1 and focus on fixing things.” You’re looking at a generation of 20- and 30-year- Russia is about to re-elect Vladimir Putin in a olds who are used to self-organizing. They believe 2 “mockery of democracy,” says the Economist, while life can be more participatory, more decentralized, The Washington Post laments, “Russia, once almost a less dependent on the traditional models of organi- 3 democracy.” zation … .4 Citizens, too, are increasingly questioning whether representational democracy works. “‘Voting is worth- This generation is not inherently different. Like the less’? Global protests share contempt for democracy,” previous generation, it comprises Homo sapiens, and reads a September 28, MSNBC headline. The article they have the same brains as their predecessors. Rather, cites a common theme in the recent street demonstra- the protestors are reflecting a new social mood trend.

The Socionomics Institute • www.socionomics.net P.O. Box 1618 • Gainesville, GA 30503 USA • 770-536-0309 • 800-336-1618 • FAX 770-536-2514 The Socionomist—October 2011

Originally published in the April 2010 Issue of The Socionomist

Figure 1

You Are Here: Western society’s ideological decentralization process appears to be somewhere between stages 2 and 3.

A recent blog post at FifthWaveFinancialAnalysis. All the Same Frustration com captures Occupy Wall Street’s true impetus: Right-wing media, including political commentator People think these protestors are being rational. They Sean Hannity, have castigated the primarily left-wing aren’t; they are just finding something to protest Occupy Wall Street protesters, portraying them as because of the predominately negative social mood. disorganized “mobs” engaged in “class warfare.” But If the trend were up, all the inequity on Wall Street as humorist Jon Stewart pointed out on his October 5 7 would be like water off a duck’s back. Indeed that show, the protests have much in common with the Tea was the case up until the May 2 top.6 Party protests of 2009-2010 despite coming from the

2 The Socionomist—October 2011

opposite side of the political divide. Stewart showed a forms, and evidence of it will be visible in all types clip of Hannity saying, of social organizations. Political manifestations will The average American taxpayer knows that at the end include protectionism in trade matters, a polarized of the day they are going to be on the hook for the and vocal electorate, separatist movements, xeno- trillions and trillions of dollars that we are using to phobia, citizen-government clashes, the dissolution bail out these companies, some of whom have been of old alliances and parties, and the emergence of irresponsible. And they are expressing their frustra- radical new ones.8 tion, which I think is quintessentially American. Figure 2 approximates the positions of the Tea Party Stewart applauded, but then revealed that Hannity was and Occupy Wall Street movements in the context of our speaking of the Tea Party protestors in 2009. Socionomic Nolan Chart. In fractal fashion, the groups that have calved from the center will themselves tend Internal Fragmentation to divide. Diverse groups increasingly display polarization. In September 2011, Ben Smith wrote on Politico. For example, on October 18, Reuters reported “Fissures com, “Sarah Palin’s address to a Tea Party Express rally at the Federal Reserve over the correct course of future … appeared to focus on worries that the movement is monetary policy.” The New York Times headlined a rift divided and flagging.” Palin warned against “internal that has widened “in the last decade” within the tight- quarrels,” yet modeled polarization by attacking fellow knit Amish society: “Amish Renegades Are Accused in Republican Rick Perry for “crony capitalism.”9 Bizarre Attacks on Their Peers.” The renegades assaulted Similarly, Occupy Wall Street, which has yet to other Amish and cut off their beards, an important mas- coalesce into a definable group, already shows internal culine symbol. The fear is so great that some Amish are division. Recently at an Atlanta rally, the group could unusually cooperating with law enforcement. not agree whether to let civil rights hero John Lewis speak.10 A Chicago Sun Times article suggests the movement has plenty of bulls’-eyes to divide its atten- tion: “Now perhaps it’s time for another target: Occupy Congress.”11

MSNBC reports regarding Occupy Wall Street: It’s messy. It’s disorganized. At times, the message is all but incoherent. All of which makes Occupy Wall Street, the loosely organized protest in lower Man- hattan … a lot like the rest of the current American political discourse.12

ABC News also described the protests’ lack of defini- tion: Figure 2 These protesters have adopted that same decentralized structure. … One of the beautiful things about A Changing Landscape: We expect to update the Socionomic Nolan Chart in the future to track the emergence of new groups [Occupy Wall Street] is that it is a movement defining 13 in the U.S. and perhaps in other countries. itself as it ‘becomes.’

The September 2001 issue of The Elliott Wave Though Occupy Wall Street’s objectives are vague, Theorist said, the protests themselves are gaining steam. Representa- 13 The coming trend of negative social psychology will tives from 15 of the largest U.S. labor unions and the be characterized primarily by polarization between Industrial Workers of the World have announced support 14 and among various perceived groups. … Such a for the movement, and copycat protests have spread 15 sentiment change typically brings conflict in many to dozens of cities.

3 The Socionomist—October 2011

Both the Tea Party protests and Occupy Wall Street As Prechter explained later in The Wave Principle have different particulars and timing, but they spring of Human Social Behavior (1999), advancing waves of from the same source—the negative social mood trend. social mood “tend to lead to political freedom, while Both movements emerged early in the downtrend. They retrenchments tend to lead to political repression.”18 should pick up in frequency, intensity and internal frag- Under a September 2011 headline, “The compass fails,” mentation as mood continues to decline. The Economist noted, Freedom House, a New York-based body that moni- Not Just Democracy tors a range of political and civil rights, reported that The Elliott Wave model suggests that social mood 2010 saw a net decline in liberty across the world for is always in flux. There is never a static norm. Change the fifth year in a row, the longest continual decline in is the norm. The April 2010 issue of The Socionomist four decades of record-keeping. … Western govern- pointed out that many presumed social norms face chal- ments have become shy about spreading the idea that lenges during negative mood phases. More and more certain human rights, enshrined in United Nations headlines unknowingly conjure up the Socionomic conventions, are universal.19 Nolan progression. Google Trends shows that news Five years of decline in liberty seems small on a references to “new normal” have increased markedly chart showing two centuries of rising democracy, yet since 2007. For example, the October 4 Guardian it is “the longest continual decline in four decades.” headlined, “Financial crisis has world teetering on the Governments across the world are stepping up authori- brink—welcome to the new normal”: tarian repression—becoming less democratic—even as Will the euro survive? Will there be a second bank- their citizens begin to distrust democracy. As we have ing meltdown? Is the world facing a decade or two documented and predicted in previous issues (see The of sluggish growth to match the Great Depression Socionomist, September 2011, for examples), society of 1873-1896, as some historians believe? Nobody is both rebelling against and submitting to the wide really knows. Which is why the new normal is not variety of new regulations, bans, security requirements really normal at all.16 and privacy intrusions. Declining social mood is propelling societies As The Elliott Wave Theorist has observed, most through the stages of the Socionomic Nolan progression; people equate downtrends with uncertainty, as this old concepts of “normal” are dissolving. Out of this so- writer does. But “nobody really knows” applies equally cial chaos, eventually, new norms will emerge. Whether to uptrends. “Nobody really knows” is the normal state, and where democracy prevails remains to be seen. not an abnormality.

Final Words on Democracy Socionomists have long anticipated that declining social mood would precipitate a decline in the number of democracies. Figure 3 updates the original chart from the June 1992 issue of The Elliott Wave Theorist, which made these observations: The numbers [Francis Fukuyama] presents showing the rise of liberal democracy merely track the trend of the stock market, i.e., of positive social mood, from its Grand Supercycle degree low in 1784 to its current all-time high. In fact, the two ‘corrections’ of the trend roughly coincided with bear phases in stocks. … As the worldwide decline in fortunes takes hold, the number of liberal democracies will shrink.17

Figure 3

4 The Socionomist—October 2011

CITATIONS 1 Wolf, Z.B. (2011, September 28). Too much democracy? 10Occupy Atlanta silences civil rights hero John Lewis! A modest proposal from N.C. Gov Bev Perdue. ABC YouTube, Retrieved from http://www.youtube.com/ News, Retrieved from http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/ watch?v=3QZlp3eGMNI. politics/2011/09/too-much-democracy-a-modest-proposal- 11Savage, T. (2011, October 9). It’s time for Occupy Wall Street to from-n-c-gov-bev-perdue/. set sights on Congress. Chicago Sun-Times, Retrieved from 2 Russia’s humiliator-in-chief (2011, September 26). The http://www.suntimes.com/business/savage/8109383-452/its- Economist, Retrieved from http://www.economist.com/ time-for-occupy-wall-street-to-set-sights-on-congress.html. blogs/easternapproaches/2011/09/return-putin. 12Schoen, J.W. (2011, September 27). Familiar refrain: Wall 3 Lally, K., & Englund, W. (2011, August 18). Russia, once almost Street protest lacks leaders, clear message. MSNBC. a democracy. The Washington Post, Retrieved from http:// com, Retrieved from http://bottomline.msnbc.msn.com/_ www.washingtonpost.com/world/russia-once-almost-a- news/2011/09/26/7978532-familiar-refrain-wall-street- democracy/2011/08/12/gIQAMriNOJ_story.html. protest-lacks-leaders-clear-message. 4 Kulish, N. (2011, September 28). ‘Voting is worthless’? Global 13Krieg, G.J. (2011, October 5). Occupy Wall Street protests: protests share contempt for democracy. MSNBC.com, Police make numerous arrests. ABC News, Retrieved from Retrieved from http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44697094/ns/ http://abcnews.go.com/US/labor-unions-join-occupy-wall- world_news-the_new_york_times/#.To8bwhxj3vl. street-york-rally/story?id=14673346. 5 Leger, D.L. (2011, October 7). Protesting ‘occupiers’ spread 14Pangburn, D.J. (2011, October 3). Wobblies announce solidarity message beyond Wall Street. USA Today, Retrieved from with Occupy Wall Street. Death and Taxes, Retrieved from http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/story/2011-10-06/ http://www.deathandtaxesmag.com/147515/wobblies- dc-wall-street-protest/50683204/1?csp=34news&ut announce-solidarity-with-occupy-wall-street/. m_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaig 15Map: Occupy Wall Street spreads nationwide—and beyond n=Feed%3A+UsatodaycomNation-TopStories+%28News+- (2011, October 4). Mother Jones, Retrieved from http:// +Nation+-+Top+Stories%29. motherjones.com/politics/2011/10/occupy-wall-street- 6 State of the markets (2011, October 7). Fifth Wave Financial protest-map. Analysis, Retrieved from http://fifthwavefinancialanalysis. 16Elliott, L. (2011, October 4). Financial crisis has world teetering blogspot.com/. on the brink — welcome to the new normal. The Guardian, 7 Parks and demonstration. The Daily Show With Jon Stewart, Retrieved from http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/ Retrieved from http://www.hulu.com/watch/286307/the- oct/04/financial-crisis-welcome-to-new-normal. daily-show-with-jon-stewart-parks-and-demonstration. 17Prechter, R. (1992, June). Sentiment/investor psychology. The 8 Prechter, R. (2001, September). Forecasting the tenor of social Elliott Wave Theorist. events. The Elliott Wave Theorist. 18Prechter, R. (1999). The Wave Principle of Human Social 9 Smith, B. (2011, September 5). Palin warns tea party against Behavior. Gainesville, Georgia: New Classics Library. division. Politico, Retrieved from http://www.politico.com/ 19Ababa, A. (2011, September 17). The compass fails. The blogs/bensmith/0911/Palin_warns_Tea_Party_against_ Economist, Retrieved from http://www.economist.com/ division.html. node/21529019.

The Socionomist helps readers understand socionomics and prepare for major changes in social mood. We also present the latest essays in the field of socionomics; we anticipate that many of the hypotheses will be subjected to scientific testing in future scholarly studies. The Socionomist is published by the Socionomics Institute, Robert R. Prechter, Jr., president. Alan Hall, Ben Hall, Matt Lampert and Euan Wilson contribute to The Socionomist. Chuck Thompson, editor. Mark Almand, executive editor. We are always interested in guest submissions. Please email manuscripts and proposals to Chuck Thompson via [email protected]. Mailing address: P.O. Box 1618, Gainesville, Georgia, 30503, U.S.A. Phone: 770-536-0309. All contents copyright © 2011 Socionomics Institute. All rights reserved. Feel free to quote, cite or review, giving full credit. Typos and other such errors may be corrected after initial posting. For subscription matters, contact Customer Service: Call 770-536-0309 (internationally) or 800-336-1618 (within the U.S.). Or email [email protected]. For our latest offerings: Visit our website, www.socionomics.net, listing BOOKS, DVDs and more. Correspondence is welcome, but volume of mail often precludes a reply. Whether it is a general inquiry, socionomics commentary or a research idea, you can email us at [email protected]. Most economists, historians and sociologists presume that events determine society’s mood. But socionomics hypothesizes the opposite: that social mood determines the character of social events. The events of history—such as investment booms and busts, political events, macroeconomic trends and even peace and war—are the products of a naturally occurring pattern of social-mood fluctuation. Such events, therefore, are not randomly distributed, as is commonly believed, but are in fact probabilistically predictable. Socionomics also posits that the stock market is the best available meter of a society’s aggregate mood, that news is irrelevant to social mood, and that financial and economic decision-making are fundamentally different in that financial decisions are motivated by the herding impulse while economic choices are guided by supply and demand. For more information about socionomic theory, see (1) the text, The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior © 2011, by Robert Prechter; (2) the introductory documentary History’s Hidden Engine; (3) the video Toward a New Science of Social Prediction, Prechter’s 2004 speech before the London School of Economics in which he presents evidence to support his socionomic hy- pothesis; and (4) the Socionomics Institute’s website, www.socionomics.net. At no time will the Socionomics Institute make specific recommendations about a course of action for any specific person, and at no time may a reader, caller or viewer be justified in inferring that any such advice is intended.