Water Resources of : Contemporary Status and Future Projections

Natalya Agaltseva1, Alexander Shiklomanov2

1-Hydrometeorological Research Institute, Uzydromet, Tashkent 2-Water Systems Analysis Group University of New Hampshire

Almaty, Kazakhstan, September 16-20, 2009 River runoff with different expectations

Amudarya Amudarya - Chatly Syrdarya 6000 Amudarya - Kerki 2500 5000 /s

Syrdarya- Kazalinsk 3

/s 2000 4000 3 Syrdarya - Kal

1500 3000

1000 m Discharge 2000

Discharge m m Discharge 500 1000

0 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Year

Uzbekistan 8 Тurkmenistan 0,03% Kirghiziya 34% Afganisnan 17%

Kazakhstan Tadjikistan 36% 5%

50% 75% 90%

Amudarya river basin 73,69 66,68 61,41

Syrdarya river basin 34,32 28,86 24,62

TOTAL 108,01 95,54 86,03 Discharge variations for vegetation period

Sum of reduced precipitation for river Reduced air temperature for basin (January-March) Chirchik_Akhandaran region (January- Syrdarya upstream 1200 0,0 March) 1000 -2,0 800 -4,0 discharge variations 600

P, mm P, 400

T,°C -6,0 -8,0 for vegetation period 200 -10,0 (April - September) 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 Sum of reduced precipitation for Ferganian Reduced air temperature for Ferganian region (January-March) region (January-March) 600 5,0 400 0,0

P, mm P, 200 T °C -5,0 0 -10,0 1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004

Chatkal -.Hudaidodcay 500 400 /s

3 300 200 Q, m Amudarya - Kerki. 100 0 Pskem - Mullala 250 5000 1932 1939 1946 1953 1960 1967 1974 1981 1988 1995 2002 200 4000 /s 3 /s 150 3 3000 100

2000 Q, m Q, m 50 1000 0 0 1932 1939 1946 1953 1960 1967 1974 1981 1988 1995 2002 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 Principle indicators on climate change in Central Asia

• Prolongation of the dry hot period,

• Increase of number of days with heavy precipitation and high precipitation variability,

• Degradation of glaciations and reduction of snow reserves in mountains,

• Increase of frequency of the extreme phenomena,

• Increase of the mudflow risk,

• Increase of evaporation on the plain and foothill territories,

• Increase of frequency of the drought periods and of the extreme low-water periods GCM air temperature projections for Central Asia GCM precipitation projections for Central Asia

GCMs have wide variability for both 20C and future simulations. Most downscaling methods will not change this trend. Snow forming processes model

Valhsh - Komsomolabad gauge

100 27 24 25 21 22 24 22 Ugam - Hodjikent, snow supply 80 17 12 15 15 16 16 17 1200 60

1000 % 40 Glacial 800 3 61 61 61 63 62 60 61 Rain 600 20 Melt W, mln m 400 0 200 Norms A1B B1 A1F 0 2030 2050 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007

Vakhsh - Komsomolabad gauge (contributions % of norms) 100 27 22 20 80 22 17 19 20 Comparison the 12 13 13 14 14 15 contribution by snow , 60 14 Glacial glacial melting and 40 61 56 54 53 54 52 56 Rain rain 20 Melt %of summary contribution norms 0 B1 A1B A1F B1 A1B A1F

Nor ms 2030 2050 Water resources

•Up to 2030 no significant changes of water resources are expected, all deviations are predicted to be within the range of the natural flow variability.

Up to 2050 the reduction of water resources is possible: •for Amudarya river basin - 10-15%; •for Syrdarya river basin - 2-5% (А2).

The estimated flow volume and precipitation amount depend on the models, scenarios and methods Discharge variations for BASE vegetation period under MODEL climate scenarios DATA AISHF BASE

ANALYSIS

DROUGHT

Vakhsh - Komsomolabad gauge, mean discharges for April - September 1400 Simulated runoff by 1200 different artificial time

/s 1000 series of temperature 3 800 and precipitation Q, m 600 for the Vakhsh river basin 400 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Moden period А2 2030 А2 2050 В2 2030 В2 2050 Project JAYHUN, 2008 The factors worsening an ecological situation on the basin in connection with climate change

• Increase in duration of the dry, hot period

• Deficiency of water resources and expected reduction of water resources 16/09/1997

4/10/2007 • Increase of droughts repeatability

• Increase in water demand for irrigated agriculture

• Strengthening of all kinds of land degradation (salinization, erosion, solt-dust transfer from the drained part of Aral sea and other

• Strengthening of processes of desertification, expansion of a zone of deserts Extreme low water periods

Precipitation of January - March 700 Drought is very negative phenomenon 600 which is cause of substantial losses in 500 agricultural production and difficulties 400 mm 300 in the fresh water supply for population

200 100 100 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 80

/s 60 Temperature of January - March 3 0 40 -1 Q,m -2 -3 20 -4

° С -5 0 -6 X XI XI I I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX -7 -8 -9 Norm 2000 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Runoff hydrograph for Akhangaran runoff in 2000 year on comparison with mean annual values

The situation with the water resources becomes crucial during the dry years when hydrological drought is observed. The assessment of the driest period on the base of the extreme climate scenarios shows that vegetation runoff in Amudarya and Syrdarya river basins can decrease for 25-40%. Especially unfavourable conditions are expected in the middle and lower streams of Drought

Amudarya river basin Repeatability of low water 4

years in the basins of the 3 various rivers on the periods 2

1

0 1951 - 1961- 1971- 1981- 1991- 2001- 3000 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 Zerav shan Vakhsh Obikhingou Kaf irnigan 2500

2000

/с Amudarya (Kizildjar) 3 1500 м downstream 1000 discharge variations for vegetation period 500 (April - September)

0 12 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 University of NH database of hydrological stations for Central Asia

Hydrological Data for were not updated since collapse of USSR

800 Turkmenistan Tadzhikistan Kirgizstan Kazakhstan Water-related station, gridded 700 and remote sensing data for 600 Central Asia will be soon

500 accessible through UNH website: 400 http://neespi.sr.unh.edu/ 300

200

100

0 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Hydrometeorological monitoring

Dynamics of meteorological network in Uzhydromet

In Kigizgidromet 76 hydrological posts, 250 177 201 183 176 166 166 16 need to be fully restored. 200 167

The equipments for 16 hydroposts are 150

84 provided in the framework of «Swiss 100 92 92 85 76 support HMS in Aral sea basin» SDC Кол-во пунктов 76 78 50

Project 0 0 0 Годы 1975 г. 1980 г. 1985 г. 1990 г. 1995 г. 2000 г. 2005 г. Air temperature Precipitation Dynamics of hydrological network of Uzhydromet 155142 155148 145 160 134129 128 120 140 120 119 117 113 106 120 Tadjikgidromet 99 90 91 100 77 11 stations are located in the 61 80 57 52 Кол-во постов Кол-во Vakhsh river basin, but 60

40 meteorological data are

20 received only from two

0 stations 1975 г 1980 г 1985 г 1990 г 1995 г 2000 г 2005 г

Water level Water runoff Sediment runoff The kinds of the satellite information used In Uzhydromet

Satellite Spectral range Product The note Meteosat-5 VIS, IR Maps of cloudy formations Short-term weather forecast Meteosat-8 IR20.8 Maps of cloudy formations Short-term weather forecast

NOAA-15,17,18 1-5 Maps of cloudy formations Short-term weather forecast

The satellite information of pasturable Estimation of pastures efficiency vegetation in the digitized form Maps of a snow cover in a zone of the The forecast of a melting runoff for rivers runoff formation of Central Asia the rivers of Central Asia

Snow cover extent in the basin of Charvak water reservoir (satellite NOAA)

Data Snow cower Snowline area, % altitude, m

14.05.99 38 2960

14.05.00 26 3200 Дождь The dangerous 3% 2% 6%

phenomena, 5% connected with the water Дождь с градом

factor Таяние снега

Снеготаяние с дождем Drought Прорыв плотин, ледниковых 84% озер и прочие Mudflow and burst of high-mountainous lakes 34,6% 26,2% 23,5% Avalanches 8,0% 3,3% 1,8% 0,4% 1,9% 0,1% 0,1% 0,2% High waters and floods 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Water consumption В2 Water intake on scenarios Scenarios block of WEAP 70 system provides 60 possibility to simulate a 50 3 situation on the basis of 40 30 economic, demographic, W, кm 20 hydrological variants 10 development variants and 0 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 climatic scenarios D2 D1 D2 D1 2005 2030 2050 1 - Demanded water intake, 2 - Real water intake, 3 - Deficiency of water Irrigation Non irrigation Drinking water supply Water intake on scenarios А2

70

60

50 The complex scenario 3 40 30 of water intake кm W, changes 20 for Syrdaryas and 10 0 Amudarya river 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 D2 D1 D2 D1 basins 2005 2030 2050

1 - Demanded water intake, 2 - Real water intake, 3 - Deficiency of water Irrigation Non irrigation Drinking water supply Remote sensing to characterize irrigation areas

Map of Land Surface Water Index (LSWI) characterizing leaf and canopy water content was derived from eight-day MODIS composites (500-m resolution). Top right map shows the irrigated lands from local census data, and top left map shows the August LSWI for the same area. We are working on deriving detailed irrigation maps using remote sensing data. Irrigated Area Map of Central Asia Derived from AVHRR (10km) and SPOT )1km) Main ways of increase of water supply

Water consumption reduction IWRM

Improvement of Transboundary Water irrigation Management system

Effective use of atmospheric Rick management precipitation

Economic water Capacity building assessment

Mineralized water use

Monitoring, forecasting Salineand water water use recourses management