13-09-2010 14:06:33 Connecting Delta Cities TO CLIMATE CHANGE SHARING KNOWLEDGE AND WORKING ON ADAPTATION
Connecting Delta Cities aspectserent of oods and storms. Within the next Within oods and storms. of the challenges; one of the lessons erent city each can sometimes substantially, er, At present, more than 50 percent of the world’s of the world’s percent than 50 more present, At the to According in cities. lives population of the thirds two than more Nations, United rising sea to vulnerable cities are large world’s the risk of millions of people to exposing levels, fl extreme number of people living in cities the 30 years, of the world’s 60 percent to will increase living people more in even population, resulting in highly exposed areas. the diff book explores This the various challenges adaptation and climate It investigation an is face. world the in cities delta and adaptation problems of comparative York, New cities of Rotterdam, in the progress Jakarta, Hong Kong, New Orleans, London, Each city faces and Ho Chi Minh City. Tokyo diff is that while Connecting Delta Cities initiative adaptation paths that may cities will follow diff the others. learn from dtp omslag cdc-II-02.indd 1 SHARING KNOWLEDGE AND WORKING ON ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Connecting Delta Cities
P IET DIRC KE, Rotterdam University of Applied Sciences
JEROEN AERTS, VU University Amsterd am
ARNOUD MOLENAAR, City of Rotterdam
3 Colophon Authors Applied Sciences and ARCADIS. The Connecting Delta We would like to thank all the authors who Cities network has been addressed as a joint action contributed to this second CDC book and others that under the C40 initiative, a group of the world’s largest helped us to make this a success. In particular we cities and a number of affi liated cities committed to would like to thank: taking action on climate change. For more information on these initiatives and their relation to Connecting Alex Nickson (Greater London Authority), David Delta Cities, see: www.deltacities.com. Waggonner (Waggonner & Ball Architects), Andy Sternad (Waggonner & Ball Architects), Philip Ward Acknowledgements (VU University Amsterdam), Muh Aris Marfai (Faculty We gratefully acknowledge the generous support and of Geography, Gadjah Mada University, Yogyakarta), participation of Jim Hall (Tyndall Centre for Climate Aisa Tobing (Governor’s Offi ce, Jakarta), Pieter Change Research, Newcastle University), Roger Street Pauw (VU University Amsterdam), Maria Francesch (United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme), (City University of Hong Kong), Bianca Stalenberg Shoichi Fujita (Nagaoka University of Technology, (ARCADIS | Delft Technical University), Yoshito Japan), HCMC University of Technology (National Kikumori (Japan National Institute for Land University HCMC) and Darryn McEvoy (Victorian Centre and Infrastructure Management), Philip Bubeck for Climate Change Adaptation Research, Melbourne). (VU University Amsterdam) and Professor We would also like to thank everyone who contributed Ho Long Phi (HCMC University of Technology in so many ways to make this second Connecting (National University HCMC). Delta Cities book a success. In particular we would like to thank Kim van den Berg, Gertjan Jobse, Jeanna Chapters 1 and 3 of this second CDC book are largely Blatt, Chantal Oudkerk Pool, Lissy Nijhuis, Liek Voorbij, based on the material on the same topics (climate Rick Heikoop, Marijn Kuitert and Marco van Bodegom adaptation in general and New York City) that were (Beau-Design) for their support. presented in the fi rst CDC book. Most of the work on these topics in the fi rst CDC book was carried out by David Major of Columbia University and Malcolm Bowman of Stonybrook University. David and Malcolm as well, and their respective universities, contributed signifi cantly to the success of the fi rst CDC book. Copyright © 2010 City of Rotterdam / ISBN 978-90-816067-1-4
Sponsors All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, This book has been sponsored by the City of stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, Rotterdam, the Rotterdam Climate Proof Initiative, electronic, mechanical, by photocopying, recording or otherwise VU University Amsterdam, Rotterdam University of without the prior written permission of the copyright holder.
CONNECTING DELTA CITIES 5 Contents Colophon 4 Preface 10
1. Climate change in delta cities 12 1.1 Introduction 14 1.2 A changing global environment 16 9 2. Introducing CDC 20 2.1 Introduction 21 2.2 The CDC networkk in practice 23
3. Rotterdam 28 3.1 Introduction 29 3.2 Present situation 31 3.3 Climate and flood risks 32 3.4 Climate adaptation 37 3.5 Rotterdam adaptation strategy 44
4. New York 46 4.1 Introduction 47 4.2 Present situation 50 4.3 Climate and flood risks 51 4.4 Climate adaptation 55
C O N N E C T I N G D E L T A C I T I E S 7 5. Jakarta 60 5.1 Introduction 61 5.2 Present situation 63 5.3 Climate and fl ood risks 65 5.4 Climate adaptation 67
6. London 72 6.1 Introduction 73 6.2 Present situation 75 6.3 Climate and fl ood risks 76 6.4 Climate adaptation 79 6.5 From strategy to delivery 81
7. New Orleans 86 7.1 Introduction 87 7.2 Present situation 89 7.3 Climate and fl ood risks 93 7.4 Climate adaptation 97
8. Hong Kong 100 8.1 Introduction 101 8.2 Present situation 103 8.3 Climate and fl ood risks 105 8.4 Climate adaptation 109 9. Tokyo 114 9.1 Introduction 115 9.2 Present situation 117 9.3 Climate and fl ood risks 119 9.4 Climate adaptation 123
10. Ho Chi Minh City 126 10.1 Introduction 127 10.2 Present situation 129 10.3 Climate and fl ood risks 131 10.4 Climate adaptation 135
11. Conclusions on best CDC practices 138 11.1 Introduction 139 11.2 Best practices 140 11.3 Future outlook 146
6 References 154
C O N N E C T I N G D E L T A C I T I E S 9 Preface A. Aboutaleb
D. Miller The world is currently facing a new challenge. Climate This book is a sequel on the fi rst Connecting Delta change will have a severe and inevitable impact, even Cities book and builds a bridge between delta cities of if we do succeed in substantially reducing its causes global stature: New York, Jakarta, Rotterdam, London, and mitigating its eff ects. Water levels will rise, both in New Orleans, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Ho Chi Minh the seas and in the rivers that run through our cities. City. These are just eight of the dozens of cities on this Precipitation levels will increase, and groundwater earth that are confronted with the major challenge of levels will change. Preventing or limiting ensuing developing integrated climate adaptation strategies. damage will require a great deal of eff ort. Each of these cities grapples with its own problems and devises its own solutions. What binds these The delta cities described in this book are thoroughly cities, however, is their common determination to aware of the necessity to step up these eff orts. win this fi ght and to become delta cities of the future; Courage and leadership is required on the part of local sustainable and climate proof. government to make decisions now that will fi ll our children with pride in the future; and to take measures Hosts of the International Conference ‘Deltas in Times to provide safety to our residents and to preserve the of Climate Change’, Rotterdam, 29 September 2010: economic appeal of our cities.
Of at least equal importance as decisive management and leadership is the availability of scientifi c knowledge. Certain measures that are needed fall outside the scope of our current technological ingenuity. Sharing and exchanging insights and experiences with projects in the area of water management and delta technology will contribute A. Aboutaleb to the development of the necessary new expertise. Mayor of Rotterdam, It gives us great satisfaction to observe that, more The Netherlands and more, cities are willing and prepared to share knowledge and opportunities for improvement.
Rather than copying the insights that are gained, other delta cities subsequently apply adapted versions according to their own situation. This allows individual cities to defi ne ambitious goals and actually realize them. It is for this reason that Rotterdam can state with D. Miller confi dence that by 2025, the city will be fully climate Chairman C40 and Mayor of Toronto, proof. Canada
11
1
Climate change in delta cities by Jeroen Aerts and Piet Dircke
13 At the same time, many delta cities suff er from severe land subsidence. As a consequence of these urban developments, trends and projections for land subsidence and climate change, the vulnerability of our delta cities is expected to increase in the decades to come.G1, G2 Introduction The issue of climate adaptation is very complex, and there is no single readily available adaptation solution applicable to all delta cities. Adaptation is partly a matter of learning by doing of allowing experiments and innovation. On the other hand, there is the need to keep all options open because of the uncertainty of future scenarios – one can never predict exactly 1 how the future will develop and what measures will 1 be needed. Hence, climate-robust and fl exible, no- regret or low-regret measures should be considered. In addition, complicated issues like policy making, stakeholder involvement and fi nancing new measures Currently, more than half of the world’s population may hinder the speedy implementation of adaptation lives in cities, especially in vulnerable delta cities. It measures, and may cut ambitious plans to more is estimated that more than two thirds of the world’s modest levels. It is therefore important to consider a large cities will be vulnerable to rising sea levels and variety of possible measures in the planning process of climate change, with millions of people being exposed climate adaptation, and to learn from the experiences to the risk of extreme fl oods and storms. By the middle of other areas and coastal cities. of this century, the majority of the world’s population will live in cities in or near deltas, estuaries or coastal Cities play an important role in the climate adaptation zones, resulting in even more people living in highly process since they have already developed the ability exposed areas. Such socioeconomic trends further to adapt continuously to change and attract economic amplify the possible consequences of future fl oods, activity and investment. One could say cities have as more people move toward urban delta areas and already been adapting to changing conditions for capital is continuously invested in ports, industrial many years or even centuries, and climate change is centres and fi nancial businesses in fl ood-prone areas. an additional challenge that needs to be addressed It is also expected that the frequency, intensity and in cities’ planning, investments and regulations. duration of extreme precipitation events will increase, Many cities are gradually taking on the issue of as well as the frequency and duration of droughts. climate adaptation and there is a growing interest in sharing and exchanging experience and knowledge adaptation paths that may diffff er, sometimes between cities. Since the choices made today will substantially, each city canlearn from other cities. inflfluence vulnerability to climate risks in the future, it Moreover, while this bookk focuses largerly on coastal is important to linkk adaptation measures to ongoing flooding, it is important to note that each off the CDC investments in infrastructure and spatial planning, cities is also affffected byclimate change inother ways, and to draw up detailed estimates off the benefifits including impacts that occur away from the coast. off adaptation. In this way, adaptation becomes a challenge rather than a threat, and climate adaptation may initiate opportunities and innovations for investors and spatial planners.
This book explores the difffferent aspects off climate adaptation in delta cities. It is an investigation of comparable adaptation challenges and opportunities and off progress in adaptation plans and investments in the eight Connecting Delta Cities (CDC) cities of Rotterdam, New York, Jakarta, London, New Orleans, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Ho Chi Minh City. Other climate adaptation networks like The Delta Alliance and recent climate adaptation initiatives and events such as these in Melbourne and Shanghai are also described in the book.
The bookk is second in a series off CDC books. The first CDC book, launched during the Henry Hudson 400 celebrations in New York, was published in 2009 and described climate adaptation in NewYork, Rotterdam and Jakarta. A third CDC bookk is expected to cover the implementation off climate adaptation strategies.
This second bookk focuses on the expanding Connecting Delta Cities networkk and the experiences off coastal cities on the topic off climate adaptation and flood risk. In this regard, each city faces difffferent challenges. One off the lessons off the Connecting Delta Cities initiative is that while cities will follow
Figure 1.1 The first Connecting Delta Cities book.
C L I M A T E C H A N G E I N D E L T A C I T I E S 15 The IPCC fourth Assessment Report states that it is inevitable that flood risks and other climate change impacts will continue to increase, and that adaptation measures and policies need to be developed parallel tomitigation efffforts.G3 The question is not if, but how quickly societies and cities will need toadapt. A changing global Adaptation to changing climatic and socioeconomic conditions is not new; cities have beenadapting to environmentt societal and environmental changes for centuries. However, the world off today is much more complex than it was in the past, and interventions taken to adapt to climate change in one sector have signifificant impacts on other economic sectors and on theenvironment. Adaptation toclimate change, 2 therefore, requires a holistic approach,where all 1 sectors and stakeholders participate in order to include long-term adaptation planning intheir daily operations.
Existing climate policy documents statethat long- term planning is the key to successful adaptation. Effff ective land use planning is crucial for enhancing the cities’’adaptive capacities to climate change. The role off stakeholders in the development and implementation off adaptation measures is a key ingredient. Effff ective adaptation requires the local implementation off measures, and requires collaborating with NGOs to improve interrelationships with local institutions. A participative approach ensures that stakeholders can express their objectives, concerns and visions, and stimulates the development and implementation off innovative ideas in the adaptation process. An adaptation process also increases the commitment of stakeholders to ensure new measures are accepted and implemented. The development off adaptation strategies that focus local water management and climate change issues, on opportunities, and that are based on a holistic but also in the specifific approach and steering of approach, requires strong leadership because it is global issues. Think global and act local is more and about more than just taking measures. It’s about a more a reality. Also in this sense, the CDC can become long-term strategy as a frameworkk for short-term a powerful network. action, a joint approach and vision development. The signifificance off cities and municipalities in climate Urban development change adaptation is increasing because climate Population growth and, as a consequence,urban adaptation requires tailor made local measures development, has an enormous impact on land use. in which urban planning plays an important role. Studies carried out to assess the effffects off population Coastal mega-cities are inflfluential and important for growth and land use change in the lower Netherlands sustaining the environment in which their citizens show that flood risks have increased by a factor of live. Therefore it makes sense to have a CDC network. seven over the last fi fty years due to urbanization and In international forums, like the WWF World Water land use change. Thus, even without climate change, forum, the cities appear more and more prominently fl ood riskk in urbanized deltas will increase simply on the agenda (e.g. the WWF city summit and because residents and businesses continue to settle champion cities network); not only when it comes to in vulnerable locations. Furthermore, research shows that by 2025, loss potentials among the world’s ten largest cities are projected to increase by at least 22 percent (Tokyo), and up to more than 50 percent in Shanghai and Jakarta. A repeat in the year 2025 off the fl oods experienced in Jakarta in 2007 could cause 60 percent higher losses and affffect 20 percent more people because off population and economic growth, independent off climate change. Since economic growth and urban development in these areas is inevitable, and the economic impacts off climate change may not be limited to the city boundaries alone, rising sea levels could have devastating effffects on the worldwide population and economic activity in the future.
Climate change, subsidence and sea levelrise Sea level rise is a natural phenomenon, and historical measurements in several delta cities such as New York
C L I M A T E C H A N G E I N D E L T A C I T I E S 17 and Rotterdam, show an increase in mean sea level rise off 17-22 cm over the last hundred years. Prior to the Industrial Revolution, sea levelrise in New York and Rotterdam could be attributed mainly to regional subsidence off the Earth’s crust, whichis still slowly readjusting to the melting off ice sheets since the end off the last Ice Age.G4, G5 ForNew Yorkk and Rotterdam, land subsidence accounts for 3-4 mm per year, mainly due to these post-glacial geological processes. But much higher subsidence rates occur as well. For example in Jakarta parts off the city are sinking at a rate off 4 cm per year, mainly due to groundwater extraction.
Climate change, however, will accelerate natural sea level rise through the thermal expansion off the oceans,melting off glaciers and ice sheets, changes in the accumulation off snow and melting off the ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland. It may also change the paths and speeds off major ocean scenarios indicate a sea level rise off 108-140 cm. Large current systems. The Fourth Assessment Report of uncertainty exists about the future behaviour off the the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change G6 large ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Although projected anincrease in global temperature of it is not well understood how quickly the ice sheets between 1.1°C and 6.4°C over the next century. will melt, a theoretical collapse off the Greenland As a result, average sea levels could rise by up to and West and East Antarctica ice sheets through 59 cmby 2100. accelerated glacier flow is expected to lead to a rise in sea level off several metres over the coming centuries. There are regional difffferences in projected sea level rise, and it is expected that sea levels in the northeast Flood riskk vulnerability off the Atlantic Ocean will rise by 15 cm more than the Important elements off flood vulnerability are: (1) the world average by 2100. This can be explained through probability off a fl ood occurring and (2) the possible the weakening off the warm Gulff Stream, gravitational consequences off a flood in terms off casualties, direct effffects and the extra warming off seawater at greater economic damage (such as destruction off houses) and depths. The projected sea level rise for Rotterdam intangible damage (such as production loss and loss and New York, for instance, is estimated at around off natural values). Furthermore, flood vulnerability is 50-85 cm by 2100. The most extreme, low- probability, also determined by (3) the adaptive capacity off a city or system following the event through evacuation, rate at which the water rises and the time allowed recovery, fi nancial aid and insurance relief options. for evacuation largely determine the number of Estimates of fl ood risk and fl ood vulnerability can be casualties.G7 further disaggregated into vulnerability to coastal fl oods, vulnerability to river fl oods and vulnerability Flood damage and infrastructure to extreme rainfall. In all three cases the impact can Looking at the most important consequences of be very high with numerous casualties and much a fl ood for diff erent economic sectors, it appears damage to property. most CDC cities are subject to similar threats from fl ooding, both from oceanic storm surges and from Extreme fl ood events are relatively rare, with typical inland sources. For most ports, both land-based return periods of one hundred years and higher. transportation and the use of inland waterways Extreme precipitation events in non-tropical cities are of importance to connect the port areas with rarely cause casualties, but do frequently cause surrounding regions. These connections may be damage to property and infrastructure. Tropical threatened as the clearance levels of bridges decrease cities like Hong Kong, however, have interested during a fl ood. Train and subway stations may be historic events recorded where extreme rainfall has fl ooded, coastal highways inundated, emergency caused fl ash fl ooding and mud fl ows, leading to and hospital services curtailed and communications casualties and fl ood damage in parts of the cities. disrupted. Furthermore, fl oods cause direct economic It should be noted that vulnerability is not a static damage to infrastructure and property, with the concept. If fl ood protection is improved or evacuation magnitude of the damage depending on the depth plans are developed, vulnerabilities can be reduced; and duration of the fl ood. Most estimates of fl ood and, with expected advances in scientifi c modelling damage rely on studies that quantify the direct and prediction of storms and storm surges, improved economic damages only. However, other non-fl ooded warnings can be brought to bear in alerting areas may also be aff ected, as the supply of goods communities at risk and in managing evacuations. and services to the fl ooded area may be hindered. Production loss due to fl oods, however, is diffi cult to Sea level rise alone may cause a presently one in a quantify at present. Indirect fl ood damage may be hundred years fl ood event to occur approximately twice as high as the direct economic damage. four times more often by the end of the century. Moreover, by the end of the 21st century, a current 500-year fl ood event may occur approximately once every 200 years.G4 The amount of damage from a fl ood is dependent on, among other factors, the size of the fl ooded area and the water depth. Other factors include the duration of the fl ood and fl ow velocities. Furthermore, the
C LIMATE C HANG E IN DELTA C ITIES 19 Introducing CDC 2
by Piet Dircke and Arnoud Molenaar origin off the CDC initiative The CDC initiative originates from the C40. The C40 is a group off the world’s largest cities and a number of affiffiliated cities committed to taking action on climate change. By fostering a sense off shared purpose, the C40 networkk offffers cities an effffective forum in which to work together, share information and demonstrate Introduction leadership. Through effffective partnership working with the Clinton Climate Initiative, the C40 helps cities toreduce their greenhouse gas emissions through a range off energy effiffi ciency and clean energy programmes (www.c40cities.org).
Many off the world’s major coastal cities are at risk 1 off fl ooding from rising sea levels and a changing 2 climate. Heat-trapping urban landscapes (buildings and paved surfaces) can raise temperatures – and lower air quality – dangerously through the Urban Heat Island effffect. In cities off the developing world, one out off every three people live in a slum, making The Connecting Delta Cities objective is to them particularly vulnerable to the health and establish a network of delta cities that are environmental risks posed by climate change. The C40 cities are taking action both tomitigate climate active in the fi eld of climate change related change by reducing carbon emissions, and by spatial development, water management, adapting to the effffects off climate change so keenly and adaptation, in order to exchange felt in cities. knowledge about climate adaptation and share best practices to support cities in The C40 member cities are: developing their adaptation strategies. Addis Ababa, Athens, Bangkok, Beijing, Berlin, Bogotá, Buenos Aires, Cairo, Caracas, Chicago, Delhi, Dhaka, Hanoi, Hong Kong, Houston, Istanbul, Jakarta, Johannesburg, Karachi, Lagos, Lima, London, Los Angeles, Madrid, Melbourne, Mexico City, Moscow, Mumbai, New York, Paris, Philadelphia, Rio de Janeiro, Rome, Sao Paulo, Seoul, Shanghai, Sydney, Toronto, Tokyo and Warsaw.
I N T R O D U C I N G C O N N E C T I N G D E L T A C I T I E S 21
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Affi liate C40 cities (19) are: Delta cities can benefifit from the Connecting Delta Amsterdam, Austin, Barcelona, Basel, Changwon, Cities (CDC) network through: Copenhagen, Curitiba, Heidelberg, Ho Chi Minh City, Milan, New Orleans, Portland, Rotterdam, Q Exchange off adaptation strategies and Salt Lake City, San Francisco, Santiago, Seattle, best practices Stockholm and Yokohama. Q Stimulating adaptation practice and enlarging operation capacity Tokyo 2008: the birth off Connecting Delta Cities Q Creating economic spin-offffs based on the In Tokyo in October 2008, a C40 meeting on climate acquired expertise adaptation offiffi cially adopted the Connecting Q Supporting the inclusion off climate adaptation in Delta Cities (CDC) Initiative proposed by the City of water management and spatial development Rotterdam. It was addressed as“Joint Action 8: Climate Q Contributing to the image off delta cities by Adaptation Connecting Delta Cities.””C40 agreed the enhancing their vision on the future networkk should (initially) consist off a small number of Q Raising awareness amongst citizens and cities that are frontrunners in climate adaptation, with local governments. the objective off exchanging knowledge on climate adaptation and sharing best practices. The CDC Network The CDC network is concerned with solidarity and cooperation between delta cities, and the issues addressed in CDC are demanddriven. Based on these principles, and supported by the commitment of C40, the City of Rotterdam initiated the CDC network and began to invest in knowledge exchange with The CDC network in other CDC cities through meetings and workshops, initiating joint research across diff erent delta cities. practice Currently, the CDC network consists of eight C40 cities (see Figure 2.1). These cities all envisage similar climate related problems, comparable to those addressed by the Rotterdam Climate Proof programme (www.rotterdamclimateinitiative.nll), 2 and also envisage related port-specifi c issues. All of 2 these cities could act, or already do, as frontrunners, thereby providing an example for other cities. They
Figure 2.1 The current cities of the CDC initiative (orange squares) and interested cities (yellow squares).
INTRO D U CING CO NNECTING DELTA CITIES 23 Figure 2.2 Connecting Delta Cities (CDC) organization. The CDC secretariat is based in Rotterdam as the international component of its adaptation programme ‘Rotterdam Climate Proof (RCP)’.
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/FX0SMFBOT )P$IJ.JOI$JUZ are capable of sharing knowledge with other C40 government bodies, and knowledge institutions and cities and share the same sense of urgency with agencies. regard to climate adaptation. At present, the following cities are involved: CDC activities, results and initial Rotterdam, New York, Jakarta, London, New Orleans, The CDC approach follows a ‘minimum eff ort Ho Chi Minh City, Hong Kong and Tokyo. Cities maximum results’ design, which can be archieved that have shown interest in CDC include Shanghai, through the linking of CDC activities to the ongoing Melbourne, Copenhagen, Lagos, Buenos Aires and activities of cities (e.g. policy actions related to Manila. climate adaptation) and by linking CDC to larger conferences on similar topics or networks with related The CDC network links cities at the local policy level. or comparable objectives. The degree of cooperation Furthermore, scientifi c networks are enhanced diff ers as each CDC city has diff erent priorities and or developed to support the CDC activities by interests. The main activities are: providing information on climate trends, impacts and adaptation options. The CDC involvement of each city 1. Knowledge exchange: Initiating symposia, depends on how the individual cities have organized workshops, student exchanges, and meetings where the development of their adaptation plans. students, scientists, engineers and policymakers can Generally speaking, each city already has or is in exchange expertise and ideas the initial phase of, however developing a pool of 2. Documentation: Supporting the publication of institutes and experts (policy, scientifi c, business) (media)reports, fi lms, publications and books on who can contribute to developing such an adaptation climate adaptation in delta cities plan. For example, the City of Rotterdam has 3. Project support: Mobilizing experts for projects addressed CDC as an integral part of its climate and support the development of projects and adaptation programme Rotterdam Climate Proof supporting proposals relating to climate adaptation (RCP). The CDC initiative is, hence, the international research and implementation component of its adaptation programme. In this way, Rotterdam hopes to inspire and learn from other In 2009 and 2010, CDC organized several expert delta cities, which may lead to economic spin-off s workshops, participated in conferences, published and thus contribute to economically strong delta a fi rst CDC book and co-fi nanced a fi lm on climate cities. adaptation in cities (www.deltacities.com). This documentary ‘Connecting Delta Cities’ examines In order to manage the fl ow of information between climate adaptation in the cities of New York, Jakarta, the CDC cities, a small CDC secretariat has been Rotterdam and Alexandria. The fi lm was fi rst screened installed in Rotterdam. This secretariat is supported at the 5th World Water Forum in Istanbul, Turkey, by an advisory board to ensure CDC activities fi t the in March 2009. Since then, it has been shown at a RCP goals. This committee comprises a mix of Dutch number of conferences such as the UNFCCC COP 15
INTRO D U CING CO NNECTING DELTA CITIES 25 in Copenhagen, and it has been shown on national Delta Alliance: television in several countries. “Understanding and improving resilience across river deltas” The fi rst CDC book, Connecting Delta Cities, described Delta Alliance is an alliance of people and the potential climate impacts and adaptation options organizations committed to improving the resilience for the cities of New York, Rotterdam, and Jakarta, and of the deltas in which they live and work. Members was launched at the US-Dutch H2O9 conference on take part in activities that span the spectrum of climate adaptation and water management during the researching, monitoring, reporting, advising, and Hudson 400 event in New York as part of the Hudson implementing projects on resilience-building in deltas. 400 celebrations (www.henryhudson400.com) in New Delta Alliance integrates knowledge and visions on a York. CDC organized and participated in workshops river delta as a whole, linking information and people and conferences in New York City, New Orleans, from across sectors and jurisdictions for the common Rotterdam, Jakarta, Ho Chi Minh City and Hong Kong. goal of improving resilience. Regional Wings of Delta CDC has also participated in major global events such Alliance are self-organized and include individuals and as the Aquaterra Forum on Deltas in Amsterdam, the organizations from across all sectors. An international UNFCCC COP 15 in Copenhagen, the World Water secretariat coordinates international events and Forum in Istanbul, the Dutch Dialogues in New Orleans communications between the Regional Wings. and the World Expo (with the launch of the WWF World Estuary Alliance and the Holland Water Week) in World Estuary Alliance (WEA): Shanghai. In Indonesia a fi rst research project was set “Increasing awareness about ecological and economic up in conjunction with a workshop dialogue. value of healthy estuaries” The WEA aims to raise awareness of the economic and Network collaboration ecological value of healthy estuaries and to stimulate Connecting Delta Cities is a fl exible network that exchange of knowledge and implementation of best closely collaborates with similar and complementary practices. Where the rivers meet the sea has always initiatives. For example, the Dutch Dialogues program been one of the most important of habitats for has proven to be a successful concept for the humanity, but in the past centuries enormous damage dialogue in New Orleans and in New York during the has been done to the vibrant life in estuaries. There is Henry Hudson 400 celebrations. Furthermore, CDC a need to work together to advance the best thinking collaborates closely with the following worldwide in sustainable estuary development and protection. networks Delta Alliance and World Estuary Alliance. The WEA is a living network, with a shared belief that For this, CDC continuously exchanges information economic development and nature can go hand in with other networks, shares best practices, cooperates hand. The growing network includes representatives in case studies and co-organizing events. The related from NGOs, business, science and policy makers. The networks are: WEA is currently based in Shanghai.
INTRO D U CING CO NNECTING DELTA CITIES 27 3
Rotterdam by Arnoud Molenaar and Piet Dircke One off the main aspects off the Delta Plan was to improve the protection off Rotterdam during an extreme storm surge. It was decided to construct the Maeslant Storm Surge Barrier, which protects Rotterdam in the case off an extreme fl ood event but stays open under normal conditions to allow free access to the older port areas as well as the inland shipping canals behind the Introduction barrier. Furthermore, as ships must have free access to the port, the City off Rotterdam and the Port Authority have chosen to develop the port area outside the dike protection system, at such an elevation that most of the port area is well protected against floods. Hence, over the last hundred years, 12,000 hectares off land have been elevated using fill materials to several meters 1 above sea level. Along with the Palm Islands in Dubai, 3 this is the largest area off human-made land in the world to be mostly surrounded by water.
Rotterdam is situated in the heart of the Dutch delta. The city lies largely below sea level (up to 6 meters) and the city, and the low lying area around it, is protected from the sea by a complex and extensive system of dikes, closure dams and storm surge barriers, which are all part of the famous Dutch Delta Plan. The Delta Works were established after the disastrous 1953 fl oods, in which over 1,800 Dutch citizens drowned.
R O T T E R D A M 29 “Ourr climate is changing. The consequences off climate change willl also be feltt in Rotterdam. In orderr to confront the challenge off climate change as an opportunity ratherr than a threat, the Cityy off Rotterdam has sett up the Rotterdam Climate Prooff programme thatt willl make Rotterdam climate change resilient byy 2025. Permanent protection and accessibilityy off the Rotterdam region are key elements. The centrall focus off the programme is to create extra opportunities to make Rotterdam a more attractive cityy in which to live, work, relaxx – andd invest. Trendsetting research, innovative knowledge developmentt and knowledge exchange with delta cities worldwide willl result in strong economicc incentives.” Alexandra van Huffffelen, Vice Mayorr Cityy off Rotterdam, Sustainability, Cityy Centre andd Publicc Space
“Rotterdam is the perfectt showcase forr climate change adaptation in the Netherlands andd itt is an inspiring example forr delta cities worldd wide. Rotterdam willl prove thatt dealing with climate change in a pro-active and smartt wayy creates opportunities forr an attractive and economicallyy strong delta cityy off the future!”
Piett Dircke, Professorr off Urban Waterr Management Rotterdam Universityy off Appliedd Sciences, The Netherlands Delta’s in Times of Climate Change 29 Septemberr - 1 Octoberr 2010
A major milestone in 2010 is the ‘Delta’s Present in Times of Climate Change’’ conference (www.climatedeltaconference.org) situation in Rotterdam between 29 September and 1 October2010. This supported conference has been organized bythe City off Rotterdam and the Dutch National Knowledge for Climate Programme and pays special attention tothe 2 climate proofifi ng off urban areas, providing a 3 platform for knowledge exchange between scientists, policymakers, politicians and practitioners. CDC celebrated its two-year anniversary at this conference by launching the bookk Connecting Delta Cities 2010 which you are Rotterdam is considered the marine gateway to reading right now. Western Europe in the Dutch delta formed by the rivers Rhine and Meuse and has a long history as a port. Rotterdamnot only serves as port for the International conference Netherlands but for the whole off Western Europe, in particular Germany. The rivers provide excellent Deltas in Times of means for inland water transport to transport the Climate Change goods from the port into the hinterland Rotterdam, the Netherlands An important date in the history off Rotterdam is 29 September – 1 October 2010 May 1940, when large parts off the city centre were completely destroyed during a bombardment by the German Air Force. The centre off Rotterdam, therefore, was almost completely rebuilt after the Second World War.
R O T T E R D A M 31 Climate and fl ood risks
3 3
Rotterdam has a temperateclimate inflfl uenced by the history. Inthe Netherlands, 26 percent off the country North Sea, with moderate temperatures throughout lies below sea level and 29 percent is susceptible to the year. However, heat waves in which temperatures river fl ooding. Many low-lying parts off the Netherlands rise above 30°C, do occur and will occur more frequently in the future. Summers are moderately hot with short wet periods. Rainfall is almost equally distributed over the year, with an average annual Figure 3.1 Example off a fl ood riskk map off the port area off Rotterdam. rainfall off around 790 mm. A new precipitation record The colors indicate the potential flood losses in euro/m2.R2 was set in August 2006, when almost 300 mm of precipitation fell in one month, causing extensive flooding and damage inthe Rotterdam city area. Winters are relatively wet, with persistent rainfall periods. These periods off excessive rainfall can cause floods in the river basins off the Rhine and Meuse.R1
The low-lying parts off the Netherlands, including Rotterdam, have been fl ooded many times throughout have been reclaimed from former lakes (usually The design surge level is determined at 4 m (the 1953 referred to as ‘polders’) and are protected by so-called generated a surge height off 3 m). To protect against ‘dike rings’’along the main rivers and coastal areas. such a storm, taking both surge levels and breaking Two thirds off the Dutch GDP (need to spell out in fi rst wave heights into account,the average dike along reference) is earned in these low-lying polders, and the Rotterdam coast is more than 10 m in height. most Dutch urban development is concentrated here. This protection level reflflects both the number of For these reasons, the Dutchintend to stay in these inhabitants and the economic value off assets within areas and, therefore, continue to invest heavily in a dike ring; the more people and economic value to fl ood protection, even though the area is one off the be protected by levee infrastructure, the higher the locations most vulnerable to flood riskk in the world. safety standard. As climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity off flooding events, Dutch fl ood protection standards are currently the these flood probabilities will accordingly increase highest in the world. Most off the protection system rapidly with sea level rise. Therefore, reinforcing flood around Rotterdam is designed to withstand a storm protection is, and will be, an ongoing concern in estimated to occur once in every10,000 years. Rotterdam and the Netherlands.
Figure 3.2 The potential number off fatalities caused by simultaneous levee breaches at Katwijk, Ter Heijde and The Hague with current land use (left) and possible future land use according to a high economic growth scenario (GE, right).R3
R O T T E R D A M 33
Socioeconomic eff ects of fl ooding The Port of Rotterdam is of vital economic importance for Rotterdam, the Netherlands and Europe. Large parts of the port area and the City of Rotterdam are protected by the Maeslant Storm Surge Barrier. This barrier, however, was designed to cater to a maximum sea level rise of about half a metre. Both the Port Authority and the City of Rotterdam, together with national government, are now considering options for coping with the increasing fl ood risks due to climate change. The port area, as already mentioned, is safe as it is located at several metres above sea level. However the area lies outside the dike protection system, and is only protected only by the barrier. Occasionally, high water levels can be problematic. Figure 3.3 This picture, based on satellite images taken on clear and warm days during the last 25 years, shows that the temperature of the A large proportion of the Netherlands’ economic urban environment is signifi cantly higher than in the rural areas. assets are clustered in the port area of Rotterdam, where the estimated potential damage in the event of fl ooding is in the order of tens of billions of euros the potential number of casualties in the province of (see Figure 3.1). At risk are port facilities, railroads, South Holland in the event of dike breaches. tunnels and container terminals. In addition, a large The rise in sea level has a relatively small eff ect on the section of Rotterdam’s working population works in low-lying polders. For example, a sea level rise of the port area, and many businesses strongly depend 30 cm could cause an increase in the fatality rate by on activities in the port. as much as 20 percent, while an expected 87 percent population growth in the area by 2040 is projected to On the other hand, the city is situated inside the dike cause a 156 percent increase in potential fatalities in protection system and very safe. But, because it is the area. The infl uence of the population growth on located below sea level, this high protection level is a the fatality rate is therefore considerably greater than necessity, as a failure of the system can immediately the eff ect of projected sea level rise. cause severe danger. The expected number of casualties as a result of fl ooding in the Rotterdam Veerman Commission: region is regarded as an important indicator of the second Dutch Delta Plan 2008 vulnerability. Figure 3.2 shows the projected eff ects In the Netherlands, sea levels may rise to 0.59 metres of the relatively high growth in urban development in the year 2100 according to the IPCC. At the same in low-lying polders north of Rotterdam by 2040 on time, the Netherlands currently still has dikes that are
R O TTERDAM 35 below the Dutch safety standard and that must be the city off Rotterdam. An Increasing sea levels lead restored. To this end, a newDelta Commission, headed to more frequent closures off the Maeslant Barrier, by former Dutch agricultural minister Cees Veerman, which leads to on increased riskk off fl ooding from the was installed and produced a new Dutch Delta large rivers flowing through Rotterdam that cannot Plan. This national commission studied the future discharge freely into the North Sea under these climate change challenges facing the Netherlands conditions. A number off difffferent scenarios are under and presented new recommendations on fl ood consideration in an open debate known as‘Rhine management and adaptation toclimate change.R4, R5 Estuary Closable but Open’’(see Figure 3.4). Should Based on this plan, the Dutch government will spend Rotterdam be protected by an extended and complex over one billion euros a year until 2100 extending and system off barriers, dams and gates that keep the sea strengthing the countries dikes and improving fl ood out, or should Rotterdam embrace the sea and opt for control. a new balance in the water system and allow the salt The newDelta Plan also indicates there is a need to water to flow freely in and out off the city? build special flood protection around the port and
Figure 3.4 Possible scenarios for the‘Rhine Estuary Closable but Open’. off 30 megatons in CO2 emissions, inconjunction with economic growth. The founders off the Rotterdam Climate Initiative are the Port off Rotterdam, the companies in the industrial port district, the municipality, and the environmental protection agency Rijnmond.
Climate The Rotterdam Climate Prooff (RCP) organization focuses on climate adaptation, and is the adaptation adaptation programme off the Rotterdam Climate Initiative.R7 Within the RCP, water is not only seen as a threat, but also as an asset for developing an attractive and economically strong city.There are three main challenges related to water and climate change 4 described in the RCP plan: fl ood protection; 3 architecture and spatial planning; and rainwater storage and updating the sewerage system.
Flood protection Rotterdam is dealing with the consequences of To protect Rotterdam for the future climate and climate change in a pro-active way by turning climate flood conditions, the city is developing innovative, challenges into opportunities. Rotterdam wants to multifunctional types off urban fl ood protection protect its citizens against the future impacts, such as that are not only safe but also fi t optimally into the climate change, by making Rotterdam‘climate proof’ by 2025. The city also has the ambition to become aims a global leader in water management and climate change adaptation.
For this reason, the ‘Rotterdam Climate Initiative’ (RCI) was launched to develop Rotterdam into a climate- neutral city.R6 The focus off this plan is on mitigating the emission off greenhouse gases and on strengthening the city’s economy through innovative solutions to save energy and store CO2. The goal is to achieve a 50 percent reduction by 2025 (compared to the level off emissions in 1990); this requires an annualreduction
Figure 3.5 City Ports off Rotterdam, living showcase off adaptive and sustainable building.
R O T T E R D A M 37 Figure 3.6 A map from the Rotterdam Water Plan 2030 as part off the adaptation programme initiative ‘Rotterdam Climate Proof’’ (RCP) showing new perspectives for water management. dense urban fabric, not creating a barrier disturbing both enhance flood protection and add value to the urban flow but a structure that adds value to it, the attractiveness off the city. To achieve this, an with new and attractive parking space, green areas innovative integrated adaptation strategy, combining and pedestrian zones. At the same time, 40,000 of spatial planning, architecture and flood protection is Rotterdam’s inhabitants live outside the dike system, being introduced. Rotterdam plans to develop 1,600 only protected only by the Maeslant Barrier. For ha (4.000 acres) off adaptive waterfront locations in these citizens, new types off climate proofifi ng are the old harbour area in the centre off the city. The under development, including retrofifi tting off existing ‘Stadshavens’’or City Ports project currently is one of buildings and new constructed adaptive housing Europe’s largest urban redevelopments (Figure 3.5). types like floating homes. However, these citizens will Through adaptive architecture, this neighbourhood have to live with a certain riskk off getting ‘wet feet’’once can be made climate prooff and serve as a high quality in a while. waterfront living and working area. This requires new ways off developing buildings that, for example, allow Architecture and spatial planning water to move through the neighbourhood in the Rotterdam is looking for alternative options that event off a flood without causing casualties or damage to assets. Floating homes may be part off this new adaptation strategy. These newtechnologies are being developed at knowledge centres like the RDM Campus (Research, Design and manufacturing), an initiative off the Rotterdam University off Applied Sciences, the City off Rotterdam, the Port Authorities and other private and public parties (Figure 3.7). The RDM is now a campus at the old RDM shipping wharff in the heart off Stadshavens, where the education of future generations is combined with innovative and sustainable development off businesses and sciences, and with experiencing best practices. (www.rdmcampus.nll)
Rainwater storage, updating storm water sewerage system For Rotterdam, climate change will result in more prolonged periods off drought and more heavy showers, both in the summer and winter periods. Precipitation is expected to increase by between 7 percent and 28 percent in winter. There is a risk that the current sewerage system may not be able to treat and drain the surplus off water. The Rotterdam Water Plan 2030 (Figure 3.6) requires an additional 600,000 m3 off storm water storage space. At least 80 hectares off extra lakes and canals would be needed to providethis storage in open water. Inthe city centre, open water areas are used forstoring extra water by retrofifitting ponds in city parks, or adjusting canals to store more water, so that in the case off an extreme precipitation event, their water levels may rise without
Figure 3.7 RDM Campus (Research, Design and Manufacturing).
R O T T E R D A M 39 Figure 3.8 Example of a Water Plaza that is used as a playground during normal conditions and as a reservoir in case of extreme precipitation. inundating surrounding areas. An artist’s impression of creating more open water is presented in Figure 3.9.
Additionally, especially in densely built areas, water can also be stored on green roofs, in WaterPlazas or in underground parking garages. Green roofs slow the rate off rooff runoffff and can retain between 10-20 mm off rainwater, which equals an average off 100 m3 to 200 m3 off water per rooff in Rotterdam. After a rainfall event, green roofs gradually release water backk into the atmosphere via evaporation. Rotterdamhas a large government support programme in place for the partial subsidizing off the development off green roofs. Nearly50.000 m2 off additional green rooff has been developed so far.
Figure 3.9 Artist’s impression off creating more open water in the city for storing excess rainwater in the Rotterdam area.R6 Figure 3.10 Reservoir connected to the sewerage and stormwater system being developed as part off a newly builtunderground parking garage R6.
Furthermore, a Water Plaza in Rotterdam can store water in times off peakk rain events but is used as a playground in normal conditions (Figure 3.8).Another example is presented in Figure 3.10, showing the development off a new underground car parkk below which is the sloping entrance a storm water storage basin that is connected to the city’sstorm water and sewerage system. The capacity (10,000 m3) off the reservoir is large enough to store 50 percent off the expected volume off rainwater that falls in one storm on city centre Rotterdam. The construction off this basin will be fi nished by the end off 2010.
R O T T E R D A M 41 Smart Flood Control Rotterdam important for the residents living next to the river. For Rotterdam is currently developing innovative these citizens, the City off Rotterdam is developing technologies to become a smart city off the future. practical information about fl ood risks and emergency ‘Flood Control 2015,’’a Dutch public private consortium situations. off nine water specialists and experts in the fi eld of water management, ICTT and crisis management Rotterdam NationalWater Centre (www.flfl oodcontrol2015.com), is currently researching As a result off the successful combination of the feasibility off a smart fl ood controlsystem for the climate adaptation implementation and research, city. Smart gaming, a demonstrator control room, Rotterdam will become an innovative center for water decision support systems, application off sensor management and climate change; a truly smart delta technology in dikes, and manyother tools are under city. International collaboration with other delta cities consideration and may be integrated into a new will be intensifified and extended, and will defifinitely smart flood protection system for Rotterdam. At the gain momentum, creating new opportunities for Rotterdam University off Applied Sciences, smart fl ood businesses and knowledge institutions in, and around, control is one off the topics that can be studied on the Rotterdam. The leading role off Rotterdam in the new full time Water Management Bachelor Programme. Netherlands as an international showcase forwater In collaborationwith private firms, students are management and climate change was underlined by currently developing a Rotterdam flood management serious game in a so-called‘Innovation lab’.
Communication aspects Communication is important and required on difffferent levels and difffferent scales. Adequate communication with local (city council), regional (water boards) and national government bodies is crucial in to create awareness and commitment for funding off research and measures. At local level, communication with residents in the early stages off urban planning processes is essential for the public acceptance, and a requirement for successful implementation of innovative solutions such as Water Plazas. These water storage projects in the city’s public spaces require sophisticated communication about the risksof drowning and the possibilities off mosquito plagues. In Rotterdam, a campaign about green roofs resulted in public participation. Good communication is also
Figure 3.11 Floating Pavilion in Rotterdam. Figure 3.12 Inside the Floating Pavilion. the decision off the Dutch Water sector, to establish pavilion, a visible icon and landmarkk for the city will a National Water Centre in Rotterdam. An important automaticallyrise accordingly. This makes thepavilion milestone for the city in 2012 will be the opening of an example off climate change resilient building and the National Water Centre in Rotterdam, as part off the off Rotterdam’s commitment to and expertise on Dutch Delta Design 2012 event. sustainable and climate change resilient construction. In addition to sustainable technology on the inside, Floating Pavilion such as heating and cooling systems that use solar 24 June 2010 Rotterdam witnessed the offifficial opening energy, climatic zones and a separate filter installation, off its fl oating pavilion (see Figure 3.11 and 3.12). The the outside is also sustainable and as the pavilion is pavilion will house the Expofunction off the Rotterdam flexible and can moor at any location. National Water Centre.
The launch off the fl oating pavilion attracted massive public attention both during the trip from the RDM Campus and during the offifficial opening. Crowds off people thronged to the quays to witness this historic moment. As the water level rises, the floating
R O T T E R D A M 43 5 3 Rotterdam Adaptation Strategy (RAS)
Strategy building (rows in Figure 3.11). Measures at diff erent In order to realize a climate-proof city, Rotterdam levels are connected and interrelated has developed the RAS strategy, containing the Q Combine forecasting and backcasting following elements: techniques in order to develop a roadmap which is Q Focus on 5 topics: Water safety, urban water to lead each topic to its specifi c goal management, urban climate, accessibility (in terms Q Learning by doing: continuously develop of transport and infrastructure) and adaptive (scientifi c) knowledge while immediately applying buildings results to practical situations Q Distinguish three types of adaptation options Q Communicate actions. Firstly to exchange (columns in Figure 3.13). 1) Minimizing the knowledge and to stimulate cooperation with probability of a calamity, 2) minimizing the universities, companies and other cities and consequences and 3) improving the recovery secondly, to inform the general public and to show Q Connect potential measures to various spatial what the city is doing and how we can turn climate levels: region, city, quarter/street, individual change from a threat into an opportunity.
Challenges for the future One crucial element is to involve more actors in the to strengthen the city’s adaptation capability region and to transform the Rotterdam Adaptation into main stream city development planning. Strategy into a Regional Adaptation Strategy. At Finally, Rotterdam is also working on designing a the same time, difffferent themes must be prioritized monitoring system as well as a climate barometer, based on progressive insight and the ongoing that will translate all its efffforts and actions into development off the city. Another important action clear results and which will help to access the is to increase awareness among policymakers and extent off Rotterdam’s in closing the gap between city planners and to integrate the need its ambitions and on ever-changing reality. Rotterdam Adaptation Strategy: examples of potential measures
Q relates to water safety Q relates to management of the urban water system
Minimizing chance Minimizing consequences Stimulating recovery
Region Q improve safety level of Q set up an early warning storm surge barrier system Q design an evacuation plan
City Q improve safety level Q fl ood proof infrastructure Q arrange back-up of dikes (utilities) systems Q create space for (inno- Q raise main roads for (e.g. water supply) vative) water storage, e.g. evacuation Q arrange a help desk in underground parkings for damage-related Q greening the city, questions converting paved to Q create fl ood damage unpaved surfaces insurance fund
Quarter / street Q raising surface level Q create safe havens Q install pumps of public space Q create shadow Q apply permeable paving Q raise the pavement / lower the street
Building Q build on mounds and Q install wet or dry proof Q install pumps invest in adaptive ground fl oor building Q promote resilience Q apply less tiles and more green in gardens
Figure 3.13 Rotterdam Adaptation Strategy (RAS).
R O TTERDAM 45 4
New York
by Malcolm Bowman and Piet Dircke its strategic position on the East Coast off the United States, and with its well protected harbour within theHudson River Estuary, this historic metropolis has become one off the most important cities in the world.
The recently published report off the New Yorkk City Introduction Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) indicates that climate change poses a challenge for the development and safety in New Yorkk City, given the uncertain risks of sea level rise and enhanced fl ooding from extreme weather events and climate change. The NPCC states that New Yorkk City is vulnerable to coastal storm surges,which are mainly associated with either late 1 summer-autumn hurricanes or extra tropical cyclones 4 in the winter period (‘nor’easters’).
With almost 2,400 km of shoreline, Metropolitan New York’s historical development has been intimately tied to the sea. Four out of fi ve of New York City’s boroughs are located on islands. Many bridges and tunnels connect these islands to the New York State and New Jersey mainland. The boroughs of Brooklyn and Queens, home to millions of residents, rests on Long Island’s low-lying terminal moraine of sand and boulders, left as the heritage of the last ice age.
N E W Y O R K 47 The CDC New York City Climate Change The Brooklyn-Rotterdam Adaptation workshop Waterfront exchange June 2009 March - November 2010
On 9 and 10 of June 2009, a group of 75 scientists, New York joined forces with Rotterdam and engineers, social scientists, architects, insurance other Dutch partners in the Brooklyn-Rotterdam experts, policymakers and planners gathered Waterfront Exchange. The 2010 exchange, co- at the Stony Brook Manhattan campus in New organized by New York City, the New York and York City to discuss the issue of climate change New Jersey Port Authorities, the City and Port of adaptation in coastal cities at the Connecting Rotterdam, the Netherlands Water Partnership and Delta Cities Workshop. The conference was co- several other parties. It was a much appreciated hosted by Stony Brook and Columbia Universities. forum for sharing experiences, devise innovative Representatives from the cities of Rotterdam, solutions, new strategies, development models New York, Jakarta and London shared their and best practices for reshaping outdated port- experiences in adaptation planning. Innovations related areas. Such factors are necessary elements and bottlenecks in adaptation policies were contributing to the economic prosperity and addressed, and areas were explored with environmental sustainability of the surrounding potential for further extended exchange of metropolitan regions. Well attended and successful experience and expertise. workshops both in New York and Rotterdam were While New York City, Rotterdam, and Jakarta are organized. each vulnerable to climate change, rising sea The Exchange focused on a comparison of plans level and storm surges, and each possess unique and best practices for Brooklyn’s south-western physical and geographic features, there was much waterfront, located at the mouth of the New common knowledge that could be learned and York Harbour, and Rotterdam’s City Ports. The shared. During the workshop, it became clear objective was to select and apply international that the challenges of climate adaptation pose best practices for these two locations and fundamental and diffi cult questions and hard help generate support for long-term decisions choices for research, policy and industry. A clear about key challenges, which include economic need was felt for unprecedented cooperation and development, environmental sustainability, knowledge exchange across all sectors. transportation infrastructure, waterfront uses, and climate change. Another objective was to share expertise about eff ective public policies, which are instrumental in implementing innovative solutions in both cities. “Climate change is reall andd couldd have serious consequences forr Neww Yorkk iff we don’tt take action,”” saidd Mayorr Michaell Bloomberg. “Planning forr climate change todayy is less expensive than rebuilding an entire networkk afterr a catastrophe. We cannott waitt untill afterr ourr infrastructure has been compromisedd to begin to plan forr the effffects of climate change.”
Michaell Bloomberg, Mayorr of Neww Yorkk City
“There are manyy challenges facing Metropolitan New Yorkk relatedd to climate change in the decades ahead. A signifificant portion off the landd area off the cityy lies between 0 andd 3 m above sea levell andd severall million people, especiallyy in the outer boroughs, live in low lying coastal terrain exposedd to the ocean. While Neww Yorkk mayy have the advantage overr its European counterparts off having more time to plan forr future climate change and dangerous levels off sea levell rise, the European experience off coping with naturall flooding disasters tells us thatt manyy decades are neededd to arrive att the bestt solutions to protectt the city’s infrastructure andd the safetyy off its residents. Noww is the time to start planning forr the centuryy ahead.”
Professorr Malcolm Bowman, State Universityy off Neww Yorkk at Stonyy Brook; Memberr off Mayorr Bloomberg’s Neww Yorkk Panel on Climate Change
N E W Y O R K 49 James, Duke off York. In 1783, New Yorkk became the first capital off the newlyindependent United States.
New Yorkk City experienced an exceptional period of growth during the 19th century. In 1800, when the city still consisted primarily off Manhattan, it had a mere 60,000 inhabitants; by 1890, the population had grown Present 25-fold to 1.5 million inhabitants, including Brooklyn, Queens, Staten Island and the West Bronx. The situation opening off the Erie Canal in 1826 provided an effifficient transportation networkk for Midwestern grain and other commodities for domestical use and for export through New Yorkk Harbour. Railways and steamboats were important elements off economic development 2 from the first part off the 19th century, and the opening 4 off the Croton water system (1842) brought clean water to the city’s population, for the fi rst time and improved public health. Since the 1950s, New York’s population has grown to over 8 million inhabitants. After a decline The Italian explorer Giovanni da Verrazzano, is in the cily’s population in the 1980s, nearly 1.2 million believed to have been the fi rst European to explore, immigrants settled in New Yorkk City in the 1990s. The the area now known as the New Yorkk Harbour in projected population in Metropolitan New Yorkk (MET) 1524. Although Da Verrazzano was the fi rst to visit in 2050 could be as high as 23 million residents. the location off present-day New Yorkk City, it was Henry Hudson who claimed Manhattan for the Dutch Government in 1609, sailing his ship The Halff Moon 275 km up the river whichnow bears his name to the state capital off Albany. Over the next twenty years, many Dutch and otherEuropeans settled in New Amsterdam, the principal city and port off New Netherlands. Peter Minuit, a Dutch political director, is credited with making the‘deal off the century’, when he bought Manhattan Island from the Canarsee Indians for just $24. The Dutch continued to control New Amsterdam until 1664, when the British tookk over from the Dutch and renamed the city NewYork, after Storm surges,winter storms and hurricanes Storm surges along the eastern seaboard off the United States are associated with either late summer- autumn hurricanes or extratropical cyclones in the winter period, the so-called nor’easters. The effffects off extratropical cyclones or nor’easters can be large, in part because off their relatively long durations Climate and (compared to hurricanes) lead to extended periods of high winds and high water. In the past, New Yorkk has fl ood risks been hit by manywinter storms coinciding with high tides. The height off the hurricane surge is amplifified if it coincides with the astronomical high tide and additionally occurs at the time off new and full moon 3 (spring tides). A period characterized by many severe 4 hurricanes (Saffiffir-Simpson categories 3-5) in the 1940s to 1960s was followed by relative quiescence
New Yorkk City has a temperate, continental climate, with hot and humid summers and cold winters. Recordsshow an annual average temperature between 1971 and 2000 off approximately 12.8°C. The annual mean temperature in New Yorkk City has risen by 1.4°C since 1900, although thetrend has varied substantially over the decades. Between 1971 and 2000, New Yorkk City averaged 13 days per year with 1 inch (25.4 mm) or more off rain, 3 days per year with 2 or more inches (50.8 mm) off rain, and 0.3 days per year with over 4 inches (101.6 mm) off rain. Regional precipitation in New Yorkk may increase by approximately 5 to 10 percent bythe 2080s. Climate models tend to distribute much off this additional precipitation to the winter months. Because off the effffects off higher temperatures, New Yorkk also faces on Figure 4.1 Hurricanes rated category 3 or higher that made NY2 increased riskk off drought. landfall on the US East and Gulff coasts in the period 1900-1999.
N E W Y O R K 51 during the 1970s to the early 1990s. History of fl ood events Again, greater activity has occurred since the late The August 1893 hurricane completely destroyed Hog 1990s. Although hurricanes strike New York City Island, a barrier island and popular resort area on the infrequently, when they do, generally between July south coast of Long Island that once existed seaward and October, they can produce large storm surges of Rockaway Beach. as well as wind and rain damage inland. Atlantic The worst natural disaster to strike the north-eastern hurricanes are aff ected by the El Niño-Southern US was the hurricane of 21 September 1938, the so- Oscillation (a warming of the ocean surface off the called “Long Island Express” which was estimated to western coast of South America that occurs every 4 to have killed between 682 and 800 people, damaged or 12 years). Figure 4.1 shows all category 3 hurricanes destroyed over 57,000 homes, and caused property (or higher) that made landfall on the US coast in losses estimated at US$306 million (comparable to the period 1900-1999. It shows that hurricanes $4.72 billion in 2010). This storm struck with little have struck the coastal New York area six times in warning. A wall of water 7-11 m (25-30 ft) high (surge that period,NY1 resulting in severe coastal fl ooding, plus breaking waves) swept away protective barrier damage and destruction of beachfront property, dunes and buildings on the shores of eastern Long severe beach erosion, downed power lines, power Island, eastern Connecticut, and Rhode Island. outages and disruption of normal transportation. More recently, the December 1992 storm produced some off the worst fl ooding seen in Metropolitan early 1990s. However, there has been no appreciable New Yorkk in more than 40 years. The water level at the increase in either the number or severity off storms Battery in Lower Manhattan peaked at 2.4 m over this period.The increase in coastal flooding is (8 ft) above mean sea level; spring tides were already largely a consequence off the regional sea level rise higher than normal due tothe full moon. The flooding during this period (about 30 cm per century) due to off Lower Manhattan, together with heavy winds, led eustatic adjustment off the continent since the last to the almost complete shutdown off the New York age and not due to recent fossil-fuel-related sea level City transportation system for several days, as well rise. It illustrates how rising oceanlevels are likely to as evacuation off many seaside communities in New exacerbate storm impacts in the future as sea level rise Jersey, Connecticut and Long Island. accelerates.NY4 The vulnerability off the regional transportation system to flooding was demonstrated again on 26 August Socioeconomic effffects off flooding 1999, after 6.4-10.2 cm off rain fell on the New York Many off the region’s rail, subway (metro) and tunnel metropolitan area, nearly paralyzing the transport entrance points, as well as some ports off the New system.NY3 York’s major airports, lie at elevations off 3 m above sea level or less. Sea level rise and flooding levels of Storm surge heights and frequency only 65 cm above the level which occurred during A large proportion off New Yorkk City and the surrounding region, lies less than 3 m (10 ft) above mean sea level, and infrastructure in these areas is vulnerable to coastal fl ooding. A one in a hundred years flood could produce a 3 m (9 ft) surge in New Yorkk Harbour and along the south coast off Long Island. Such a surge is more likely to be caused by a hurricane than a winter nor’easter. On the other hand, hurricanes occur much less frequently than nor’easters. Nor’easters are dangerous and can cause considerable damage even though their wind speeds are lower than those in fast-moving hurricanes, as nor’easters cover a much greater area and tend to last several days. This means that sequential high tides will carrythestorm surges further inland at a particular location.
Storm return frequencies along the US East Coast over the last 50 years peaked in the late 1960s, diminished in the1970s, and picked up again inthe
N E W Y O R K 53 combination off these two factors, over time, will result in both increased fl ooding and increased droughts, with the resulting need toadjust system operating rules and drought regulations in order to maintain supply levels NY6. Climate change is also expected to have many possible impacts on water quality, human and ecological health, as a result off increasing temperatures, changing precipitation patterns and changes in turbidity, eutrophication and other water quality parameters. Higher sea levels and storm surges will also affffect the operation off existing wastewater treatment plans and outfalls, with consequent water quality impacts to receiving water bodies.
Maintenance off acceptable water quality standards in New York Harbour, western Long Island Sound, the lower Hudson, Passaic and Hackensackk rivers is dependent on an adequate fl ushing rate driven by the twice-daily flood and ebb circulation off the tides. the December 1992 winter nor’easter will place Most off the city’s treated and untreated sewerage is the area’s low-lying transportation infrastructure eventually discharged into the harbour and waterways at increased riskk off flooding.NY5 Inthe Metropolitan surrounding Metropolitan New York. There are ocean East Coast (MEC) region, some beaches and barrier outfalls in sections off Nassau and Suffffolkk Counties islands are narrowing or shifting landward, partly along the south shore off Long Island. as a result off ongoing sea level rise as well as land subsidence. Accelerated sea level rise will intensify Much off New Yorkk City relies on a combined sewer the rate and extent off coastal erosion. While sea level system, which means that heavy precipitation events rise is obviously an important factor, beach erosion often result in sewage fl ows being routed around is frequently intensifified by human activities such as treatment facilities, and stored in temporary holding coastal development and destruction off wetlands. tanks or released directly into the receiving water bodies. Intense precipitation events can lead to The inland sources off New Yorkk City’s water supply occasional overflflowing off the combined sewers into system (Long Island almost exclusively derives its city streets and subway systems. water supply from underground aquifers) will be impacted by higher temperatures and forecast increased precipitation. It is expected that the compared to 2005 levels. In recent decades, New Yorkk City has acquired a substantial history off efffforts to assess adaptation strategies to address climate change. The‘Metro East Coast Report’, a report for the National Assessment of Climate Variability and Change,NY5 reviewed climate change with many regional stakeholders. The New York Climate City Department off Environmental Protection’s Climate Change Taskk Force, initiated in 2004, surveyed the adaptation entire range off vulnerabilities to climate change off the water system. Its most recent report, the ‘Assessment and Action Plan’, NY6 was published in 2008. Mayor Bloomberg, in partnership with the Rockefeller Foundation, convened the New Yorkk City Panel on 4 Climate Change (NPCC). The NPCC, which consists of 4 climate change and climate impact scientists, as well as legal, insurance and riskk management experts,
In December 2006, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg challenged New Yorkers to generate ideas for achieving 10 key goals for the city’s sustainable future.NY7 New Yorkers in all fi ve boroughs responded positively. The result isthe most sweeping plan to enhance New York’s urban environment inthe city’s modern history. On Earth Day 2007, the Mayor released PlaNYC 2030, a comprehensive sustainability plan for the city’s future. PlaNYC puts forth a strategy to reduce the city’s carbon footprint, while at the same time accommodating population growth and improving the city’s infrastructure and environment. The combined impact off this plan will not only help ensure a higher quality off life for generations of New Yorkers to come, but will also contribute to a 30 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions
N E W Y O R K 55 serves as the technical advisory body for the Mayor and the New York City Climate Change Adaptation Task Force on issues related to climate change, impacts and adaptation. The Task Force has focused its work on critical infrastructure in the city, and the NPCC has developed three workbooks to guide adaptation plan- ning; a full report from the NPCC is forthcoming.NY8
The city has developed a robust, durable framework for eff ective, fl exible and cost-effi cient adaptation planning designed to meet the challenges of climate change in the city.NY9 This framework is based on IPCC GCM model outputs for climate scenarios, and carefully developed adaptation assessment procedures in the context of climate protection levels. On a statewide level, the ClimAID study, sponsored by the New York Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA), includes an assessment of coastal impacts, as does the New York Commission on Sea Level Rise and several other studies. There is a in a way that limits risks to human life and physical growing awareness that all of these recommendations structures. In this respect, fl ood zoning policies and will have to be monitored and adjusted, as new building codes can be powerful tools. New York City research and observations become available as to the waterfronts play a crucial role in this context as a fi rst projected rate of sea level rise. line of fl ood defense, protecting New York City for future challenges. Hence, the way zoning policies Land use zoning and fl ood insurance are applied to waterfronts is directly determining The development of NYC waterfronts continues future vulnerability to fl ood risks and new (re-) zoning because of the attractiveness of locating near the policies for waterfronts can be perceived as option for water for recreational and economic activities. climate adaptation in New York City. Two recent successful examples of waterfront Examples are to reduce urban density near water- developments in New York City are Battery Park, on fronts, allow for additional elevation of buildings near the south side of Manhattan, and Brooklyn Bridge the waterfronts (‘freeboarding’) and to combine levee Park, on the Brooklyn side of the east River, near the systems with residential housing near the waterfront. bridge. The question that arises is how to develop Furthermore, fl ood insurance could be an important future areas and control future land use in such a tool for achieving risk reduction, because it imposes manner that vulnerability to fl ooding is managed the minimum requirements for local governments’ flood zoning and fl ood building codes, and it provides Such‘multi functional land use’developments, incentives to homeowners to invest in riskk reduction however, need new planning regulations and urban beyond these minimum standards. designs that allowfor a less rigid boundary between land and water. For example, most environmental Wetland restoration values are found creating (shallow-) gradients between There is an opportunity in NYC for waterfront land and water. development that enhances fl ood protection levels through applying measures that also enhance The City off New Yorkk has recently initiated the‘Staten environmental values. Current discussions address Island Bluebelt Programme’’to reduce the risks of focusing on waterfront areas where coastal fl ood flooding on Staten Island from storm water, by protection and nature preservation can be co- providing and constructing storm water detention developed. Local government and the state and ponds and enhancing or creating streams, ponds federal policies have a mutual interest here. At the and wetlands. New, separate, storm and sanitary policy level, such an approach could beaddressed sewer infrastructure networks are also included inthe through better integrating Federal and State coastal programme. The 10,000-acre (4,000 hectare) Bluebelt zone protection into local Waterfront Revitalization Programme, at an estimated cost off $37 million, Programs (LWRP). would cost some $39 million less than a conventional underground networkk off storm sewers.NY6
Storm surge barriers One possible long-term measure that might be considered is storm surge barriers spanning the major navigation channels connecting New Yorkk Harbour to the sea. As New Yorkk is generally located on higher ground than other threatened European delta cities such as Rotterdam, London and St Petersburg,New Yorkk City planners enjoy the benefifit off more time to consider options for future fl ood protection. The problems off climate change impacts to be faced in New Yorkk 50 and 100 years from now may be in some respects similar to those off the abovementioned European cities today. Therefore, much can be learned from the European experiences with storm surge barriers before making commitments to ambitious regional solutions. As withany major engineering works, NewYork
Figure 4.2 Paradise Pond in Marshland, preserve Long Island NY.
N E W Y O R K 57
surge Barriers toprotect New Yorkk City’ NY12 include the Verrazano Narrows, which is the main shipping channel, connecting Upper New Yorkk Bay and Port Elizabeth, N.J. with the Atlantic Ocean. Other possible connections include the upper East River to eliminate surges originating in western Long Island Sound, the Arthur Kill behind StatenIsland and or a more ambitious outer barrier system stretching across from Sandy Hook, N.J. to Far Rockaway, Long Island. This latter approach follows the Delta Works design by shortening the length off coastline that needs to be protected as well as safeguarding JFKK Airport and densely-populated communities in Brooklyn, Queens, Jamaica Bay and northern NJ.This barrier would eliminate the need for both the Verrazano and the Arthur Kill barriers (but not the upper East River barrier), provide protection to the outer boroughs off Brooklyn and Queens, additional northern NJ communities, Jamaica Bay and JFK Airport, but would barrier design and emplacement would require have signifificant environmental impact, including comprehensive feasibility/cost/benefifit analyses, augmenting and modifying the Sandy Hookk barrier desired protection level and effifficacy studies.NY11 dune system off the nearby Gateway National New Yorkk City has high ground inall off the boroughs Recreational Area. which could protect against some levels off surge with a combination off local measures (such as dikes), resilient housing, enhanced community resiliency and evacuation plans. Barriers designed to impede oceanic storm surges obviously would not protect against the substantial inland damages from wind and rain that often accompany hurricanes. As with the Dutch Delta Plan, careful decisions would need to bemade about barrier and dyke locations, since all such systems and also do not protect those infrastructure and residents who live outside the barrier. Possible locations for barriers that were considered at a 2009 ASCE conference ‘Against the deluge: storm
N E W Y O R K 59 Jakarta
5 by Philip Ward, Muh Aris Marfai, Aisa Tobing and Christiaan Elings but reports of fl ooding are prevalent throughout this long period.J5 The Government of Jakarta is aware that eff orts to reduce fl oods involve local, national and global factors and Introduction is determined to achieve its objectives. This is quite a challenge, but Jakarta is in the process to develop detailed plans to accommodate more water and increase green retention areas in the city.
1 5
Flooding and fl ood management are not new to Jakarta. The region has suff ered from fl ooding ever since the founding of Batavia (the colonial name for the current city of Jakarta) by the Dutch in 1619. Soon after this, a canal system was constructed and by 1725 a dam had already been built to divert the waters of the Ciliwung westwards. Over the course of the last four centuries, many more technical fl ood managements strategies have been designed and implemented,
Figure 5.1 The location off Jakarta.
J AKAR T A 61 “In Jakarta, we are aiming to reduce flooding in the cityy byy 40 percent byy 2011 and byy as much as 75% byy 2016. Basedd on detailedd calculations modelling, these ambitious goals are achievable iff we are able to increase the proportion off green space in the cityy and improve waterr catchments and groundwaterr recharge in accordance with the Jakarta Spatiall Plan forr 2030. However, itt is importantt to keep in mindd thatt fl ood managementt requires nott onlyy local, butt also regional, nationall andd globall effff orts, andd so we welcome cooperation in managing watersheds thatt transcend our city’s boundaries.”
Fauzi Bowo, Governorr off Jakarta, Indonesia
“From the geomorphologicc pointt off view, Jakarta consists of alluviall plain andd coastall landform, where thirteen rivers flow through Jakarta city. This physicall condition increases the flood hazardd andd vulnerability. Rapid change off landd use on the upper partt off Jakarta and rapidd industriall developmentt contribute signififi cantlyy to increasing surface run offff leads to extensive flood inundation. In the future, with scenario off climate change, fl ood eventt are predictedd to worser. Therefore an integratedd watershed andd coastall zone management, using regional, ecological and spatiall approaches, which is also take into account coordination among the locall governments surrounding Jakarta (Jabodetabek, Jakarta-Bogor-Depok-Tangerang-Bekasi), is required.”
Professorr Dr. Suratman, M.Sc, Dean off the Geographyy Faculty, Gadjah Mada Universityy Yogyakarta, Chairman off the Indonesian Geographers Association lowland area with relatively fl at topography. Jakarta is located in the delta off several rivers. Thirteen rivers flow through the region, the main one being the Ciliwung (Figure 5.2). The Special Capital Region off Jakarta (DKI Jakarta) covers an area off about 662 km2. Over the last halff century the city’s population rose rapidly from 2.7 million in 1960 to 9 million in 2007.J1 GDP projections Presentt for Indonesia as a whole show overall growth rates of 4.5 percent per year between the periods 2005and situation 2030, and the population off Jakarta is expected to grow from 8.8 million to up to 25 million by 2025. This population growth, combined with rapid economic development, has caused extensive land use change in the whole off Java and in Jakarta in particular. During the 2 past three decades, fringe areas experienced extensive 5 land conversion fromagricultural land to new urban and industrial areas,J2, J3 former residential areas in the city centre have been converted into offiffices and business spaces, and open green space in Jakarta has greatly Jakarta, the capital and largest city off Indonesia, is decreased from 28.8 percent off the total area in 1984 to located on the northern coast off the island off Java, in a an estimated 6.2 percent in 2007.J4
#ENGKARENG $RAIN "ANJIR +ANAL "ARAT
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J AKAR T A 63 Figure 5.3 Ciliwung River and adjacent slum settlements.
Figure 5.4 Flood simulation of Ciliwung River for 1.5m and 2m inundation scenarios. problems, the rapid deforestation and urbanizationhas led to increased flood peaks and erosion, resulting in sedimentation in the city’s rivers and drainage canals. Urbanization has also resulted in the narrowing off river basins and floodplains, reducing the discharge capacity off rivers during peakk events. In addition to these problems, huge amounts off garbage clog up Jakarta’s Climate and rivers and drainage canals, partly due to the lackk off a coordinated refuse collection system for large parts of fl ood risks the city. Overflflowing rivers cause inundation off adjacent settlements, especially the slum settlements (Figure 5.3). Figure 5.4 shows the simulated extent off a flood up to 2 m in the area near the Kampong Melayu due to overflflowing waters from the Ciliwung River. J11 3 5
The physical causes off flooding in Jakarta are several and interlinked and include land subsidence, climate change, land use change, and clogged-up rivers and drainage canals. Jakarta is subsiding rapidly, with an average subsidence rate off 4 cm per year in northern Jakarta, and areas where the subsidence rate is even higher.J6 On top off this, the climate ischanging, which is expected to cause an increase inthe frequency off both river flooding and coastal flooding. Climate models project that annual rainfall will increase across most off Indonesia in the future,J7 and that extreme rainfall events will increase in severity and frequency in South-East Asia inthe 21st century.J8 In recent decades, sea level in the Jakarta Bay has risen by about 0.5 cm per year.J9 Furthermore, tropical cyclones are predicted off increased intensities for South-East Asia,J10 which could lead to increased storm surge frequencies and heights.J8 Next to these
J A K A R T A 65 Related sustainability and environmental aspects Several important sustainability and environmental aspects are related tothe fl ood problem. One of Jakarta’s major problems is that off traffiffic and chronic congestion, described by many as the city’s most signififican‘urbannightmare’.J12 During fl oods, this problem ismade even worse: for example, during the fl oods off 2002 and 2007, massive traffiffic jams hampered evacuation, with major thoroughfares being brought to a complete standstill for days. Train and air services were badley affff ected, with around 80 percent off fl ights at the Soekarno-Halta Airport being delayed in 2002. Solid waste is another related environmental issue in Jakarta; off the ca. 23,400 m3 off garbage produced each dayy, only 14,700 are disposed off by the City Sanitation Figure 5.5 Maintaining the drainage system and channels off the city’s Offiffice.J12 Large amounts off this garbage end up in waterways. Trash rackk at Manggarai Flood Gate, Southern Jakarta, before and aftercleaning. J13 the city’s waterways, clogging up drainage channels (Figure 5.5). Poor coverage off piped clean water remains a key problem; a mere 40 percent off the city’s supply is estimated to be piped, with ca. 40 percent coming from bore-holes, and ca. 20 percent from traditionalwater vendors. The increasing demand for water has led to the over-utilization off groundwater resources, exacerbating the land subsidence (and therefore fl ood) problem. Traditionally, government policies on fl ooding in Jakarta have emphazised protection based on technical measures, such as canals, dams, and sluices. Today, such measures continue to form an important part off Jakarta’s adaptation plan. One of the ways in which fl oods will be reduced by 2011 is through the dredging off 13 rivers and 56 drainage Climate canals and the Eastern and Western Canals. By 2016, several developments are planned: the construction adaptation off channels and tunnels to link the Western and Eastern Flood Canals; construction off a polder system; the rehabilitation off existing reservoirs and lakes; construction off a new reservoir; floodplain conservation and re-greening (Figure 5.6); and 4 improving the existing breakwater to prevent the 5 impact off tide water. The Jakarta Public Works Agency has also introduced a project to dredge and remove
Figure 5.6 Re-greening off floodplain areas to increase water retention.
J A K A R T A 67 Figure 5.7 Flood marker in a settlement area to preserve fl ood awareness among citizens. (Figure 5.7). Furthermore, nature restoration schemes are being heralded as innovative ways toprotect against fl ooding. In Jakarta, mangrove conservation is considered a good way to protect the coastal area, not only in terms off flood protection, but also from a sustainability point off view. The Ministry of Forestry has developed a programme to increase the area off mangroves in the coastal area near Jakarta; in some areas these had almost disappeared due to deforestation.
Interaction off climate and water issues with spatial planning At present,Jakarta is working toward the integration off spatial planning and flood management. These issues were discussed when policymakers from Jakarta attended the CDC symposium on flood riskk in New Yorkk City in 2009. In this regard, fl ood riskk management Figure 5.8 Strengthening the capacity off communities through plays a key role. Two key components to a successful training, education, and discussion. flood riskk management plan are: (a) flood riskk maps showing how riskk will change spatially; and (b) sediments and waste from the city’s rivers and assessments off how fl ood riskk mapping can play a role drainage canals (Figure 5.5). On a less technical level, in the decision-making process and communication people living in informal settlements and inthecity with stakeholders. Both off these issues are to be outskirts have installed simple structural devices such covered in an upcoming research programme as part as small dams to protect their houses from tidal floods, off the Dutch programme Knowledge for Climate. The and are building storage areas on the second storey of CDC networkk will play a role in embedding knowledge houses to avoid fl ood damage (Figure 5.9). exchange between cities. A preliminary flood damage model has already been set up by Gadjah In recent years, there has also been more investment Mada University Yogyakarta (Indonesia) and IVM-VU in non-structural measures such as awareness- University Amsterdam (Netherlands).Based on this raising programmes; law enforcement and early model, Figure 5.10 shows the area off northern Jakarta warning and emergency assistance systems; upper that would be inundated as a result off an extreme watershed planning and management; training for coastal flood with a return period off one hundred strengthening community capacity (Figure 5.8);and years under: (a) current conditions; and (b) a future installing fl ood signs to preserve citizens awareness scenario in 2100 whereby land subsidence continues
J A K A R T A 69 Figure 5.9 Houses with storage areas on second storey to avoid fl ood damage. at 4 cm per year and the sea level rises by 59 cm. The total value off assets exposed to such a flood under Delta Dialogues current conditions is estimated at about €4 billion, 2008 - 2009 whilst the scenario for 2100 estimates an exposure of almost €17 billion (excluding the effffects off changes in future population and land use, and socioeconomic developments). In the coming years, more flood risk In 2008 and 2009, a series off four meetings (Delta maps off this nature will be developed to show how Dialogues) were held out in whichIndonesian flood inundation and riskk will change over time, and to decision makers at national, regional, and local assist in the integration off spatial planning and flood levels, civil society stakeholders, and experts management. from Jakarta and the Netherlandswhere brought together. Through a systematic discussion on fl ood risks in Jakarta, opinions were shared and Figure 5.10 Inundation maps off northern Jakarta for people learned about each others’’perceptions two coastal fl ood scenarios. and interests. As no formalagenda or political A) Current conditions decisions were involved, participants could freely brainstorm and share views. Based on the Dialogues, a long-term visionwas formulated on how toreduce flood riskstaking into account land subsidence, climate change and other causal mechanisms. Vietnamese specialists were also involved inthe Dialogues, and this international exchange off knowledge and experience led to the beginnings off Indonesian- Vietnamese collaboration. Sea and permanent water bodies
B) Includes sea level rise and land subsidence
Inundated area
J AKAR T A 71 6
London by Alex Nickson In the last decade, London has experienced fl oods that have damaged homes and infrastructure, a heat wave that killed 600 Londoners and a drought that led to the construction of a desalination plant. Introduction Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of these existing risks, which unless London adapts, will increasingly aff ect the city’s prosperity, the quality of life of its inhabitants and ultimately London’s reputation as a leading 1 6 ‘world city.’
“Preparing ourr greatt cityy forr the effffects off climate change and adapting ourr homes and workplaces willl improve Londoners’ qualityy off life, with more trees, andd better designed, greenerr publicc spaces. This willl create neww jobs andd industries andd reinforce the capital’s position as the numberr one place to do green business.”
Boris Johnson The Mayorr off London
L O N D O N 73 “We have quantifi ed the synergies and confl icts between adaptation to climate change and mitigation of carbon emissions, for example by examining the contribution that urban energy use makes to the urban heat island. We are using our integrated systems modelling to understand how policies can be devised that yield benefi ts in relation to a number of objectives and avoid undesirable side-eff ects.”
Professor Jim Hall, Professor of Earth Systems Engineering, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Newcastle University Presentt situation
2 6
From a peakk off 8.8 million in 1939, London’s buffffered from the continental climate by the Gulf population steadily declined to 6.7 million in 1988. Stream, and thus has a marine climate. This means Since then, the population has grown steadily to that winters are less cold and summers are less hot. 7.6 million today and is expected to keep growing This reduced seasonal variation is one off the key to around 8.9 million by 2031.L1 Nearly all off this reasons why much off the UKK is poorly adapted to growth will be accommodated on brownfifield sites, extreme weather, as wide seasonal variations are very or further densifification off development around high uncommon and generally short-lived. transport accessibility nodes. This approach leads to a compact, dense city, but also intensififies vulnerability by concentrating a high number off people and assets within a relatively small area.
London sits astride the RiverThames. While not a traditional delta, the capital is further bisected by 12 tributaries and the tidal inflfl uence off the North Sea extends almost entirely through the city. London, as with much off the United Kingdom, is
L O N D O N 75 droughts than other catchments in the Southeast, as it is able to collect more water. The Thames Basin receives an average off 690 mm of rainfall per year. Off this, two-thirds is lost to evaporation or transpired by plants. 55 percent off the remaining ‘effffective rainfall’’is then abstracted for use, one of the highest amounts inthe country. 82 percent of Climate and the abstracted water is for public supply, with half off this supplied to households and a quarter to non fl ood risks households. The remainder is lost in leakage. This sequence is shown diagrammatically in Figure 6.1 below.
The Environment Agency has classifified the whole of southeast England as‘severely water stressed.’ 3 This means that the amount off water abstracted to 6 meet demands today is causing actual damage to the environment. Under the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD),L2 water companies must contribute to improving the quality off water bodies, which will in Drought effffect limit theabstraction from some watercourses, Eighty percent off London’s water comes from the River meaning that water supply may fall as unmanaged Thames and River Lea and 20 percent from the confifined demand is likely to increase. The Environment Agency chalkk aquifer under the city.The Thames Basin is the is currently assessing what level off‘sustainability largest river basin in the southeast off England. As such, reductions’’will be required to meet the WFD it offffers a more dependable supply off water during requirements.
%VAPORATION AND USED BY 2EQUIRED TO PROTECT 5SE IN AGRICULTURE 5SED BY BUSINESS GROWING PLANTS THE NATURAL ENVIRONMENT INDUSTRY AND FOR HOSPITALS HOTELS OTHER PURPOSES SCHOOLS AND FOR OTHER PURPOSES %FFECTIVE RAINFALL 7ATER AVAILABLE FOR SUPPLY 0UBLIC SUPPLY (OUSEHOLD USE 2AINFALL %FFECTIVE RAINFALL 7ATER AVAILABLE 0UBLIC SUPPLY
Figure 6.1 Diagram from draft water strategy. found that their resource plans have not been fully funded. This can mean there is a potential for short term financial aspects to dominate the longer-term sustainability off balancing supply and demand.
Flood risk London is vulnerable to flooding from three key sources:‘tidal’’fl ooding when tidal surges combine with high tides and onshore winds, ‘flfluvial’’ flooding from the freshwater rivers in London; and‘surface water’’ fl ooding, when heavy rainfall overcomes the drainage system. Figures 6.4 and 6.5 show the observed monthly rainfall and temperature for London for the period 1961-1990 be affected by flooding (grey bars) and then the projected changes to these Catchments <1:20 1:75 - 1:100 variables for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s (coloured GLA boundary 1:20 - 1:50 1:1000 lines). It can be seen that in the future rainfall becomes
Figure 6.2 Standard off protection provided by the tidal and fluvial deforces.
The UKK water sector was privatized in the UKK in the early 1990s. Four private water companies supply London with water but only one manages London’s wastewater. The water companies are required to produce Water Resource Management Plans (WRMPs), which provide a long-term (25 year) perspective on how the companies will balance their supply and demand forwater. In parallel, the watercompanies must also prepare business plans, setting out how they will fund their WRMPs over a 5-year period.The Environment Agency assesses the WRMPs and OfWat (the financial regulator for water companies) assesses their business plans. There is a statutory requirement for the watercompanies to deliver their business plan, but not their WRMP. In this round or resource and business planning, severalwatercompanies have
L O N D O N 77 more seasonal and that all seasons experience a signifi cant warming. London is protected from fl ooding by a series of fl ood defences and the city’s drainage system. 15 percent of London’s area lies on the former fl oodplains of London’s rivers. The standard of protection provided by the fl ood defences and the area they protect can be mapped and the assets that lie on the protected fl ood plains plotted. Figure 6.2 shows the standard of protection provided by the tidal and fl uvial defences. It can be seen that there is a very variable standard of protection, with the tidal defences providing a high standard of defence to the tidal fl oodplain (green shaded area), but that protection on some of the tributaries to the Thames having a much lower standard of defence (red shaded areas). The standard of protection provided by the drainage system is much lower, commonly between 3-5 percent annual expected probability. An analysis of ‘who and what’ is at fl ood risk today, August 2003 heatwave caused the deaths of 600 shows that a signifi cant proportion of London’s critical Londoners. An analysis L3 of the health impact of the infrastructure lies in areas of fl ood risk and also in heatwave across all the UK regions showed that while addition that some of the poorest Londoners are living London did not experience the highest temperatures, in areas of tidal fl ood risk. This is important because it did result in the highest number of deaths when it underlines that much of the infrastructure London averaged over the population. It is proposed that the would rely on in the event of a fl ood is at risk and that urban heat island (UHI) eff ect was a key factor in this the most vulnerable part of the population also live in excess mortality, as the UHI prevented the city from at risk areas. cooling off overnight and maintained temperatures at a threshold too high for vulnerable people to recover Overheating suffi ciently from the heat of the day. Summers in London are rarely hot enough to cause a signifi cant health impact. However, it is this rare exposure to high temperatures in combination with the poor ability of much of London’s housing stock to maintain comfortable temperatures that causes Londoners’ vulnerability to high temperatures. The to prevent a climate impact (such as a flood) from occurring.
As part off the public consultation on the LCCAS, the Mayor used digital media channels to askk Londoners what they could and should do as individuals, or neighbourhoods, to adapt. This included using Climate YouTube to virally disseminate a video L6 off the Mayor explaining the need to adapt and an interactive adaptation website L7 where Londoners could put forward their ideas and vote on other peoples’’ ideas (see Figure 6.3). This allowed the Greater London Authority to reach a wider audience than normally engaged in policy development and helped raise both 4 awareness off the issue and ownership off the risk. 6
Figure 6.3 Website: www.london.gov.uk/climatechange To identify the climate risksand opportunities facing London, and toprovide a frameworkk to prepare London for climate change, the Mayor off London is developing a climate change adaptation strategy for the city.L4 The strategy assesses the climate risks toLondon today, and then uses climate projections to understand how these risks change, or new opportunities arise, as a result off climate change.
The London Climate Change Adaptation Strategy (LCCAS) uses the Disaster Riskk Reduction frame- work L5 off ‘prevent, prepare, respond, recover’’ to categorie the actions. This approach encourages decision makers toundertake some level of adaptation activity despite the uncertainty off climate projections, and also to consider how to manage the residual riskk that exists even iff the strategy is
L O N D O N 79 Average Monthly Rainfall Medium Emissions Scenario 2040 - 2060s
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Figure 6.4 and 6.5 Baseline London climate (grey bars) 1961-1990, and projected future climate (generated using UKCP09 50% projections). thresholds for protection against rising sea levels provided by each of the options are then plotted against sea level rise. This approach helps decision makers to understand the suite of options open to them, and how they can be combined into a ‘decision pathways’ to create a portfolio of measures through the century. From strategy Figure 6.6 shows the TE2100 ‘decisions pathway.’ Each to delivery box represents a fl ood risk management option or series of options and the maximum level of water level rise they can protect against. This approach can be replicated for managing other impacts, including droughts and overheating. 5 6 Water neutrality The Greater London Authority has been working with the Environment Agency to look at how to balance London’s water supply in the face of increasing demand and declining supplies. The aim is to improve London is undertaking a wide range the water effi ciency of London’s existing stock of of adaptation actions, the following examples 3 million homes to provide water for the future of which are transferable and scalable to growing population – referred to as ‘water neutrality.’ other cities. In principle this means no net increase in demand despite a growth in the number of inhabitants. To deliver these water savings, the GLA is working with the 33 London boroughs, the 4 water companies and Thames Estuary 2100 (TE2100) the energy companies on a programme to retrofi t The UK Environment Agency has undertaken a study water and energy effi ciency measures into Londoners’ to identify the fl ood risk management options for homes at no cost to the householder. The aim is to protecting London and the Thames Estuary from retrofi t up to 1.2 million homes by 2015. The ultimate tidal fl ooding to the end of the century.L8 The project vision is to expand ‘water neutrality’ to ‘water security,’ has identifi ed a range of possible options – from where suffi cient savings are made to provide a buff er raising the height of existing defences to constructing against the impact of climate change on water a second Thames Barrier – and assesses the level supplies (including the sustainability reductions of protection that each option can provide. The referred to above).
LONDON 81 -AXIMUM WATER LEVEL RISE 0m 1m 2m 3m 4m
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