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Newsletter for the Baltics Week 2 2017

The following information is gathered from usually reliable and open sources, mainly from the Baltic News Service (BNS), respective defence ministries press releases and websites as well as various newspapers, etc.

THE BALTICS

NATO planning to strengthen battle groups with air, naval forces in Baltics and On 20 September, NATO Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe Gen. James Everard said that NATO is planning to strengthen the NATO battle groups stationed in the and Poland with elements of the and the navy. “NATO’s army units have integrated very well and quickly here, but we must strengthen them with elements of the air forces and the navy. This is our next challenge in the Baltic countries and in Poland,” Everard said on a visit to Estonia. Everard said that cooperation is extremely important primarily between the army and the air forces and it would enable to improve the deterrence and defence capabilities of the battle groups even further.

THE BALTICS AND

Russian and naval ships detected near Latvian borders On 21 September, two Russian Su-27 military aircraft were detected near Latvian borders. The Russian military aircraft were detected over neutral waters in the Baltic Sea near Latvian territorial waters. Also, on 17 September, three Russian naval vessels were detected near Latvian waters. The Russian Andromeda, Kilektor 1 and Bira naval vessels were detected in Latvia’s exclusive economic zone waters. On 16 September, another military aircraft was detected near Latvia’s sea border.

Estonian defence chief: Russia is ready for military interference in The commander of the Estonian , Gen. Riho Terras, said on 19 September, that Russia is ready to interfere militarily in Belarus, as it did in , should the political situation in the country develop in a direction not liked by Russia. The Estonian Defence Chief said that the purpose of Zapad and other military and joint exercises is to interconnect the maximally with those of Russia in order to paralyze the capability of Belarus for independent military action. “Just like with Ukraine, Russia is planning military steps against Belarus in the event that the political situation in Belarus changes. The armed forces and security structures of Russia have made preparations to step in and launch a military operation in Belarus if necessary” Terras said.

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THE BALTICS AND EXERCISE

NATO: Suspicion regarding Zapad 2017 military exercise was justified On 22 September, the NATO Secretariat stated that NATO believes that the suspicions regarding the size of the Russian-Belarusian military exercise Zapad 2017 were justified, as the scale of the exercise was larger than what Russia had originally said. A full assessment will take several weeks, but it is now clear that the scale and geographical coverage of the exercise Zapad 2017 were significantly larger than the original statements by Moscow and . She pointed out that the manoeuvres were held not only in Belarus, Kaliningrad, Russia’s and the Baltic Sea, but that major exercises also took place in the Arctic, the Far East, in the Black Sea near the border with Ukraine, and in Abkhazia. Representatives of Russian authorities officially tied some of these exercises with Zapad 2017. NATO also still believes that the manoeuvres actually involved far more troops than the numbers officially announced by Russia and Belarus, 12,700 military personnel. NATO has not yet named its estimates, but said that dozens of thousands of soldiers participated in the exercise.

Dutch troops start exercise in Lithuania On 18 September, NATO enhanced Forward Presence team’s combat group started an exercise in Jonava, Kaisiadorys and Elektrenai districts in central Lithuania. During the exercise, Dutch troops serving in the battalion will drill arrest and defence operations. The exercise will mainly take place at daytime and blank cartridges will be used. The troops said that daily lives of local residents would not be interrupted, pledging to cause as little inconvenience as possible. The Dutch contingent in the NATO enhanced Forward Presence battalion consists of troops from the Dutch Army’s 13th light brigade and the 42nd Limburg Jaeger Armored Infantry Battalion. The Dutch troops have brought all of the unit’s equipment to Lithuania, including Boxer infantry fighting vehicles and multiple function vehicles Fennek.

Estonian Defence Minister acknowledges for exercise Estonian Defence Minister Juri Luik acknowledged developments in Sweden’s defence area during his visit to on 15 September. “The exercise Aurora 17, as well as developments in Sweden’s defence area show that Sweden is clearly sensing a bigger role in assuring the security of the Baltic Sea region,” Luik said. During his visit Luik met with Swedish Defence Minister and commander of the General. Michael Byden. The Defence Ministers discussed the security situation in the Baltic Sea region and the Aurora exercise as well as the Russia-Belarus large-scale exercise Zapad.

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LITHUANIA

Commander of the NATO Deployable Air Command and Control Centre visits Lithuania On 19 September, Commander of the NATO Deployable Air Command and Control Centre (DACCC) Major General Andreas Frank Kraak paid a visit to the ’ Mechanised Infantry Brigade Iron Wolf in . The guest delegation met with MIB Iron Wolf Commander Mindaugas Steponavičius, Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations of the Lithuanian Air Force Lieutenant Colonel Sergėjus Buitvidas, Commander of the NATO enhanced Forward Presence Battalion Battle Group Lieutenant Colonel Thorsten Gensler, representatives of the brigade, its command and staff, leadership of Tactical Air Control Parties and fire support personnel. At the meetings, the eFP Battalion Battle Group integration status in the MIB Iron Wolf was presented, as well as tactical air control capabilities situation in the MIB Iron Wolf and the NATO eFP battalion in its subordination. The DACCC delegation presented their capacity to support land operations of NATO forces.

Lithuanian President urges world leaders to not forget Russian aggression On 19 September, Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaitė addressed world leaders at the United Nations General Assembly. During her speech, she urged world leaders to not forget Russia and its aggressive measures used in Ukraine at a time where the world’s focus is on Syria and North Korea. She addressed the paradox, that Russia has a special responsibility to protect international peace as a permanent member of the Security Council, while at the same time violated the UN Charter by attacking Georgia, illegally annexing Crimea and participating in the war in Eastern Ukraine. Her critique was also addressed to the international community for drawing red lines in the sand without having the courage to enforce them. Before Grybauskaitė took the stage, the Russian First Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN, Pyotr Ilyichev and Leonid Slutsky and chairman of the international committee of the Russian State Duma lower parliament got up from their seats and walked out of the General Assembly.

Lithuania finds Russia’s proposal for UN force in eastern Ukraine unacceptable On 19 September, Nerijus Aleksiejunas, the Lithuanian President’s foreign policy advisor, stated that Russia’s proposal to deploy a UN-mandated force on the dividing line between Kiev’s forces and Moscow-backed separatists is not acceptable. “What is unacceptable is that such a mission would operate along the demarcation line or only in some areas in eastern Ukraine. The key goal should for a UN mission, if it were set up, to operate on the border between Russia and Ukraine,” he stated. According to President Dalia Grybauskaitė’s advisor, the deployment of a UN force on the Ukraine-Russia border would help resolve the conflict and monitor

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whether Russian troops enter Ukraine. Setting up a mission on the so-called “contact line” would be a step toward freezing the conflict, he said.

Two Russian military aircraft violated Lithuanian airspace last week Last week, two Russian military transport aircraft violated Lithuania’s airspace, Lithuanian officials said on 18 September. The incident came at a time of heightened tensions in the region over the Zapad exercise. The Lithuanian Defence Ministry said that the airspace violation had been recorded on the Lithuanian Armed Forces’ airspace surveillance equipment late on Saturday. According to officials, the incident occurred as six Russian IL-76 military aircraft flew from mainland Russia to its Baltic Sea exclave of Kaliningrad. Two of the military aircraft deviated from their flight plans and entered Lithuania’s airspace over its territorial waters at 22:50 and 23:10. The Russian military aircraft stayed in Lithuanian airspace for up to 2 minutes before heading on to Kaliningrad. NATO military aircraft were not scrambled to escort the six IL-76 military aircraft as the Russian military aircraft flew according to pre-filed plans, maintained contact with air traffic controllers and had their onboard transponders on. US military aircraft patrolling Baltic airspace from Siauliai did not have enough time to react to the border violation. On 18 September, Alexander Udaltsov, Russia’s ambassador to Lithuania, was summoned to the Foreign Ministry and was handed a diplomatic note over the airspace violation and requested that the competent Russian authorities provide an explanation over the incident as soon as possible. It also called on Russia to take all necessary measures to prevent such incidents from occurring in the future. Defence Minister Raimundas Karoblis has stated that Lithuanian airspace must be respected and that the airspace cannot be entered without permission. However, he also stated that “certain mistakes are possible, given the number of troops moving and the high intensity. It can’t be ruled out that it was a mistake, but it can’t be ruled out either that our vigilance was tested this way”. The Russian Defence Ministry has rejected deliberate violation of the Lithuanian airspace. “We regard the claims of the Lithuanian side about the alleged intentional violation of airspace by Russian airspace as part of the Zapad-2017 exercise as politicized and untrue,” the Defence Ministry said in a statement. According to the ministry, the Russian military aircraft were allowed by Lithuanian air traffic authorities to deviate from the route over neutral waters of the Baltic Sea and to approach the country’s airspace after facing bad weather conditions that threatened the safety of the military aircraft and their crews. However, Lithuanian officials have denied giving permission to Russian military aircraft last week to enter the country’s airspace.

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Lithuanian President discusses Zapad drills with UN Secretary General On 18 September, Lithuania’s President Dalia Grybauskaitė met with United Nations (UN) Secretary General Antonio Guterres as part of her visit to New York and discussed the 2017 Zapad military exercise. Grybauskaitė notified the UN Secretary General about Russia’s actions at the Lithuanian border, the regional security situation and the threats posed by the aggressive Zapad drills to the people worldwide. “In the President’s opinion, it is very important to provide world leaders and heads of international organizations with objective first-hand information on what is going on in our region. The President is the only leader of the countries faced with Zapad treats to have an opportunity to present the situation directly to the UN Secretary General during the assembly,” reads the presidential press release. In Grybauskaitė’s words, simulation of a conflict with NATO countries, concealed scale and scenario of the exercise, locations of troops and tactical weapons and non-conventional actions are a sign of aggressive and offensive character of Zapad. The Lithuanian President emphasized the need for the world to learn the lessons of Crimea, Transnistria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia and not turn a blind eye on aggressive actions. In her words, the UN response to violations of international law has been insufficient in the past years, which means that the organization is no longer fulfilling its mission.

Lithuania’s ambassador in Washington: Russia aiming to intimidate Europe in energy At a conference of the executive council, ministers and diplomats of the Community of Democracies, 15 September, Lithuania’s Ambassador to the , Rolandas Krisciunas, stated that Russia is using energy projects, such as the Astravyets nuclear power plant in Belarus and the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, to intimidate Europe. Furthermore, the ambassador emphasized that the nuclear power plant under construction in Belarus by Russia, which is close to Lithuania, and the Nord Stream 2 project were political tools intended to intimidate European nations. According to Lithuania, Belarus is building the nuclear power plant in violation of the provisions of the Espoo and Aarhus conventions. Additionally, Belarus has failed to provide any research-based explanations behind the selection of the Astravyets site, which is merely 50 km from the Lithuanian capital Vilnius, and did not conduct any tests of possible radiological effects upon waters, Lithuanian residents and the environment in case of an accident. Lithuania is also strongly against the Russian Nord Stream 2 project, which Lithuania’s President Dalia Grybauskaitė has argued can split Europe, as it is not a commercial project but a geopolitical one aimed at harming Ukraine.

Lithuanian troops in multinational exercise RAPID TRIDENT 17 in Ukraine On 8-23 September, the Exercise RAPID TRIDENT 17 is taking place in Yavoriv Military Training Area in Ukraine, which involves approximately 1800 personnel from 14 different countries,

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including Lithuania’s training team for Ukrainian soldiers and a team of LITPOLUKRBRIG staff officers. “This exercise is part of our effort in the cooperation with both NATO and US ARMY EUROPE which will allow us to develop our capabilities as well as to deepen the multinational cooperation as we seek security and stability in the region,” stated LITPOLUKRBRIG Chief of Staff LTC Elgijus Senulis. The exercise is focused on peacekeeping and stability operations to ensure a safe and secure environment. It is composed of a multinational, brigade-level, computer-assisted command post exercise, integrated with a battalion-level field training exercise and a platoon-level situational training exercise. Rapid Trident is an annual exercise with participation this year from Bulgaria, Canada, Estonia, , Georgia, Lithuania, Moldova, , Poland, , Turkey, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Lithuanian watchdog moves to suspend Russian channel TVCI for 6 months The Lithuanian Radio and Television Commission (LRTK) proposes to suspend the retransmission of the Russian television channel TVCI for six months over content inciting to war and hatred. “Since violations persist and they (TVCI) had already been previously sanctioned, the commission decided to increase the period of suspension to six months,” Edmundas Vaitekunas, head of LRTK said. The sanction will take effect, if it is approved by the Vilnius Regional Administrative Court, which has three days to make its decision. According to the media watchdog, comments made by Vladimir Zhirinovsky on the “Right to Know” show broadcast on TVCI on June 10, incited to hatred among nations and instigated war. The Russian lawmaker spoke about an occupation of Ukraine and Transnistria. A TVCI representative was present at the LRTK meeting, but he did not acknowledge the violations. Lithuania started to restrict the broadcasting of Russian channels in the country after Russia in 2014 annexed Crimea and began to support separatists in eastern Ukraine.

LATVIA

Former US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence receives Order of the Three Stars On 22 September, President Raimonds Vejonis has presented James Townsend, the US’ former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence for European and NATO policy, Latvia’s highest state decoration - the Order of the Three Stars. The Latvian Chapter of Orders decided to confer the Order of the Three Stars, Third Class, to Townsend for his personal contribution to enhancing Latvia’s defence and security, Latvia’s integration with NATO, as well as promoting US military, political and financial support to the Latvian military, and for his contribution to the development of Latvia’s defence architecture and cooperation projects.

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Latvian President: Europe must keep up technologically and conceptually with the US On 21 September, the Latvian President Raimonds Vejonis said that Europe must do more to ensure that its armed forces keep up technologically and conceptually with the US when he was addressing the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) forum in Washington. The President’s Chancellery reported that Vejonis in his speech underscored that the new global challenges can be tackled only in close transatlantic cooperation. Vejonis noted that formally values of the US and EU are similar, but there is an impression that the US and Europe are drifting apart. “But in a time of change it is equally important to identify new challenges and to try to deal with them before they become a security or defence issue. When this is backed by financial investment and/or limited military force, much can be done to prevent future threats developing. That is especially true when it comes to mass migration and terrorism, which frequently have a complex relationship,” Vejonis said. He also stated that hard defence is clearly the role of NATO, while the EU is much better at exercising soft power, especially against hybrid threats.

Latvian Minister of Defence on Zapad exercise On 21 September, Latvian Defence Minister Raimonds Bergmanis said that the elements applied during the exercises show that a blockade of the Baltic region was being played out as a scenario. The Latvian Defence Ministry is just beginning to put together its assessment on the recent Zapad military exercises. Even though the active phase of the exercises have concluded, Bergmanis points out that the activity of the will not disappear. “The exercises have concluded, but we have spoken much about the investments they have made in their armed forces infrastructure, as well as unexpected exercises. This will not disappear. We will see what will happen in Belarus, and whether all of the Russian armed forces units will have left Belarus by the end of this month. However, everything else which has been taking place near our borders will continue I believe,” the minister said. Bergmanis said that much attention has been paid to the exercises themselves, but it is just as important to pay attention to what is happening before and after. Asked about the true objectives of the exercises, Bergmanis said that first, the return of Latvia’s observers must be awaited and an exchange of information with allies must take place. The Latvian Ministry of Defence expects to have its conclusions prepared about its observations of the Zapad 2017 military exercises sometime in the winter.

No provocations observed in Latvia during active phase of Zapad exercises On 20 September, spokespersons from the Interior Ministry and Defence Ministry informed that no provocations have been observed in Latvia during the active phase of the Zapad 2017

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military exercises. Even though the active phase of the exercises concluded on 20 September, Defence Ministry spokesman Kaspars Galkins stated that the exercises will be seen as concluded when the military units involved in the exercises return to their permanent locations. Taking into account the large number of forces participating in the exercises, this could take at least a month. Galkins confirmed that the ministry has received information about several incidents, which will be evaluated by experts to determine whether they were in any way connected with the military exercises.

Information gained during Zapad will be sufficient to evaluate the tactics used by Russia On 20 September, European Parliament Member Artis Pabriks said that the information gained during the Zapad 2017 military exercises will be sufficient to properly evaluate the tactics and strategy used by the Russian side. Pabriks stated that it has not been easy to obtain information about these exercises in an open way. For example, the media day was just a show, where they presented what they wanted everyone to see. He adds that this is why NATO members must use other methods to observe what is happening in its border areas. He believes that one of Russia’s main goals with these exercises was to involve Belarus so deeply in its military activities, so that it cannot act autonomously anymore.

Latvian mobile operator LMT develops innovations for national defence needs On 19 September, the Defence Ministry announced that Latvian mobile telecommunications company Latvijas Mobilais Telefons (LMT) in cooperation with the Defence Ministry and the Riga Technical University is developing several innovations for the national defence needs, including a mobile app for military communications, Viedsargs (SmartGuard), a special sensor, artificial intellect and computer vision solutions. The presentation of the prototypes of the military innovations created in Latvia was held on 21 September. The Defence Ministry said those prototypes represented not only innovations for national defence but also unique export products with high value added that can earn for Latvia a place among the defence industry innovators. “Through successful cooperation between the government and private businesses we are able to create innovative technological solutions that can be a major contribution to the Latvian national defence,” the Defence Minister said at the presentation.

State Chancellery to evaluate security risks associated with Kaspersky Lab products On 19 September, National Alliance party asked the State Chancellery to collate information about state institutions that use Kaspersky Lab solutions, and the associated security risks. Following MP Rihards Kols’ (National Alliance) initiative, the party’s Saeima group has turned to the State Chancellery, requesting information about which state institutions use Kaspersky Lab services or products. The Party requested the collection of information because of the increasingly compelling evidence proving that the international cyber security company Kaspersky Lab has links to the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB). This request was

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prompted by the decision by the US government to ban US federal departments from purchasing Kaspersky Lab products. In addition, due to the possibility of cyber-attacks on the private and public sectors, the National Alliance has asked the State Chancellery to provide information on whether there is a state institution in Latvia that can quickly react to cyber- attacks and ensure that critical state infrastructure and information systems will not be damaged in such attacks.

Latvia sends first border guard vessel to multinational mission On 19 September, Latvia sent its first border guard vessel “Valpas” for participation in a multinational mission at EU southern sea borders at the European Border and Coast Guard Agency’s request. The operation is intended to ensure the monitoring of the EU’s sea borders using member states’ equipment and experts, in order to curb migration across the bloc’s external sea borders. The State Border Guard has been representing Latvia in the joint Frontex- led operations since 2009, providing its contribution to guarding the EU’s external borders and combating cross-border crime. A total of 238 officers of the State Border Guard took part in Frontex operations in 2016 and 175 officers from Latvia have been involved in the operations this year.

ESTONIA

Defence Minister spoke at CEPA Forum 2017 during US visit On 20 September, Estonian Defence Minister Juri Luik attended an influential security conference, CEPA Forum 2017, as well as met with several lawmakers, diplomats, influential senators and opinion leaders. On 20 September, Luik spoke about transatlantic relations in the framework of the presidency of the Council of the at a seminar organized by the George Washington University. He also took part in a discussion on the role of the EU in solving military conflicts.

Estonian Defence Minister: Funding national defence continues being a priority According to Estonian Defence Minister Juri Luik funding national defence continues to be a priority, he said on 19 September. The defence area makes up about 528 million euros in next year’s state budget, which is the biggest defence budget in the Estonian history. “There is still a political consensus in Estonia that funding national defence is a priority. Two percent of GDP is the minimum which we have to contribute to national defence to guarantee its sustainability,” Luik said. According to the minister the budget is made up of three important things - building

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up defensive capacity with long-term development, guaranteeing allied presence and investments made from the program of national defence investments. Next year 490 million euros will be allocated to implement the independent defence capacity development plan and next year the main focus is on tenders connected to mechanizing the Scouts Battalion. In addition to the defence budget, more than 12 million euros would be spent on infrastructure for the allies and around 6 million euros for running costs of hosting the allied forces. Additional 20 million euros are planned to be spent on ammunition tenders in the framework of the program of defence investments. Developing the Tapa and Amari bases as well as the infrastructure of the central training area of the defence forces in cooperation with the allies is to continue in 2018. In addition, developing the air operations’ control center is to continue.

Estonian Defence Chief attends NATO Military Committee conference 15-17 September, Commander of the Gen. Riho Terras took part in a conference of the NATO Military Committee in Tirana, Albania, which focused on ongoing operations of the alliance and changes in the military structure. Commanders of the defence forces of the NATO member states discussed the Afghanistan support mission Resolute Support, the Kosovo mission KFOR, the alliance’s general deterrence stance and modernizing NATO’s military structure. “Proposals to change the military structure resulted in a constructive discussion, the result of which were consensual instructions for moving forward. NATO’s renewing structure takes into account different danger scenarios, the alliance’s ambitions and is adaptive to the goal,” Terras said, adding that the structural proposal takes into account changes in the security environment and creates better preconditions for deterrence and more efficient collective defence in the future.

Estonian observer: We were shown action of defensive nature at Zapad Representatives of seven countries invited to observe the Zapad large-scale Russia-Belarus joint military exercise in Belarus under the Vienna document were shown action of defensive nature and also the number of personnel that they saw was smaller than the declared maximum numbers, an Estonian observer who was present at the exercise said on 20 September. He said that the joint Russia-Belarus exercise, just like the military exercises held in Estonia, started with an imitated invasion by an enemy, which was then halted and the enemy eventually driven out of the country. On the first day operations of the air force took place, on the second day it was action by the ground forces and on the third day an air defence operation took place. On the last day, a large-scale operation took place that was watched also by the president of Belarus, , foreign defence attachés and representatives of NATO, the UN, the Red Cross and the OSCE. Kiis said that the number of personnel seen by the observers was smaller than what Belarus had declared: “The kind of

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number of people that was declared by the different sides we never saw. There may have been more, because Belarus is big, but I guess that I didn’t see 5,000 on different days combined”.

Estonia to deploy up to 20 defence personnel to Mali and 6 to Afghanistan next year The Estonian defence forces will deploy up to 20 personnel to two missions in Mali and up to six personnel to the training and advisory missions in Afghanistan in 2018, it appears from draft resolutions of the parliament drawn up by the Ministry of Defence. One of the drafts concerning Mali would extend the participation of up to ten Estonian military personnel in the EU training mission EUTM Mali until 31 December 2018, while the other would extend the participation of up to ten Estonian military personnel in the UN peacekeeping mission MINUSMA in Mali until the same date. According to the explanatory notes added to that draft, Estonia will continue next year to deploy a four-strong EOD team to the region of Northern Afghanistan were is the framework nation, as well as to have one staff officer serve with Resolute Support.

Finland raises yearly allowance for Estonians who fought with Finnish forces The government of has decided to raise the size of the annual allowance paid to Estonian volunteers who fought with the Finnish army in World War II to 2,000 euros from the present 590 euros. The increase in the allowance for Estonian volunteers who fought with Finnish forces in 1941-1944 has been set out in Finland’s state budget. The paper said that Finnish veterans of war have been receiving that allowance since 2011. Markku Seppa, managing director of the Union of Finnish Veterans of War, said that the increase in the allowance for Estonian volunteers demonstrates that the Finnish government is taking care also of the kindred-nation volunteers living abroad. Estonian volunteers still alive numbered less than 50.

Newsletter was prepared by Anders Faarup Nielsen (intern, ), Jakob Greve Kromann (intern, Riga), Jacob Dalsgaard Pedersen and Leah Elizabeth Winther Hamborg (interns, Vilnius)

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