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A4A: Airline Industry Review & Outlook

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A4A: Airline Industry Review & Outlook Industry Review: Allocating Capital to Benefit Customers, Employees and Investors Updated August 16, 2021 https://www.airlines.org/dataset/impact-of-covid19-data-updates/ http://airlines.org/dataset/a4a-presentation-industry-review-and-outlook/ http://airlines.org/blog/the-nature-and-status-of-u-s-airline-competition-beyond-the-80-percent-rhetoric/ https://atwonline.com/aeropolitics/op-ed-how-lower-aviation-fuel-taxes-boost-local-economies U.S. Passenger and Cargo Airlines Facilitate the Safe and Efficient Movement of People and Goods Worldwide, 2019 Facts and Figures Powering Almost 750,000 28,000 flights direct employees per day across the globe Carrying 2.5M Moving 58,000 passengers tons of cargo per day to/from per day to/from nearly 80 more than 220 countries countries Sources: A4A, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, Diio by Cirium and company literature 2 Contents » Core » Trends in Traffic, Fares, Operations and Financial Performance » Initiatives to Improve Profitability » Affordability, Competition and Access to Air Travel » Reinvestment in People and Product » Customer Satisfaction » APPENDIX 3 As Real Airfares Plunged Since Deregulation, Growth in Flyers Sharply Exceeded Population Ancillary Services Included, 2020 Domestic Air Travel Was ~61% Cheaper Than in 1980 Domestic Round Trip (in 2019 Dollars) Passengers per Capita Up 2.3x (+129%) $800 200 1,100 3.0 190 2.82 $698 1,000 2.8 $700 175 927 900 2.6 $600 150 800 2.4 Per Capita 700 $500 125 2.2 600 $400 100 2.0 500 1.8 $300 75 Millions $274 400 369 1.6 $200 50 300 200 330 1.4 43 $100 25 100 1.2 1.12 $0 0 0 1.0 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 Fare+Fees Possible Trips on Disposable Income Per Capita Sched Pax U.S. Pop Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Transportation Statistics (DB1B via Airline Data Inc. and T1 scheduled service for U.S. airlines) 4 As Air Travel Has Become Safer and More Accessible, More Americans Have Taken to the Skies 87% of the U.S. Population Has Flown Commercially Share (Percent) of U.S. Adult Population That Flew… 100 86 87 90 81 80 73 70 63 60 49 45 50 39 40 29 30 21 25 22 20 10 0 1971 1977 1988 1997 2019 2020 Past 12 Months In Lifetime Sources: Historical A4A air travel surveys conducted by Gallup and Ipsos 5 Pre AirlineProfitability (Pre Even Years, in Best Source: ATA ATA (1970 Source: Reports Annual (75) (50) (25) 25 0 - Tax Profit Margin (%) (%) Margin Profit Tax 1970 1972 1974 - 1976), A4A A4A 1976), Airline Passenger Cost Index (1977 1976 U.S.Recession 1978 1980 1982 Widened Gap 1984 1986 - present); Bureau Bureau of present); Economic Analysis 1988 U.S.Passenger Airlines 1990 2016 in 1992 - Tax Margin) Lags the U.S. Corporate Average Lags Corporate Margin) theU.S. Tax 1994 - 2018, But But 2018, Narrowed in 2019 6 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 All U.S. Corporations U.S. All 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Note: Note: highlightedin Recessions gray 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 In the 10 Years Preceding the Pandemic, U.S. Passenger Airlines Achieved Sustained Profitability But Remained Less Than Half as Profitable as the U.S. Private Sector Average Pre-Pandemic Pre-Tax Profit Margin (%) 34.5 33.4 31.5 29.9 29.8 28.5 25.5 23.3 20.5 21.8 18.7 16.6 15.8 14.6 10.8 9.6 6.0 7.1 McDonald's Rails* Apple Disney Hotels* Starbucks All USA Chipotle Airlines 2010-2019 2017-2019 Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, A4A Passenger Airline Cost Index and company SEC filings * Hotels = Choice/Hilton/Hyatt/Marriott/Wyndham; Rails = CSX/Norfolk Southern/Union Pacific 7 In 2020, Travel-Sector Profitability Took a Massive Hit; Overall Corporate Profitability Was Flat Pre-Tax Profit Margin (% of Operating Revenues) 34.6 32.9 32.0 28.6 27.8 25.4 21.5 14.5 14.5 13.8 13.8 9.8 6.3 4.9 3.6 (7.1) (34.3) (58.8) Chipotle Airlines Disney Starbucks All USA Apple Hotels McDonald´s Railroads 2019 2020 Source: Company SEC filings Note: Airlines = Alaska/Allegiant/American/Delta/Hawaiian/JetBlue/Southwest/Spirit/United; Hotels = Choice/Hilton/Hyatt/Marriott/Wyndham; Railroads = CSX/Norfolk Southern/Union Pacific 8 World Crude-Oil Prices Have Climbed Steadily Since October Spot Price of Brent Crude Oil ($ per Barrel) $90 81.03 $80 75.17 $70 67.12 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 18.38 $0 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Sources: A4A, Energy Information Administration (https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_m.htm) and IHS Markit 9 For U.S. Airlines, the Price of Oil* Is a Significant Determinant of Capacity Growth When Fuel Costs Decline and Finances Improve, Growth Accelerates 10 4.6 5 1.0 1.3 2.0 2.4 0 (5) (1.8) (3.4) (10) (15) (20) Oil Shock Extreme Oil Oil Relief COVID-19 (25) + Weak GDP + Better GDP + Good GDP + Recession (30) (35) (40) Compound Annual Compound Annual Growth Rate (%) (45) (39.0) 2005-2010 ($75) 2010-2014 ($108) 2014-2019 ($57) 2020 ($42) Domestic Airline Capacity (ASMs) U.S. Economy (Real GDP) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, EIA, IHS Markit and published airline schedules via Diio by Cirium as of Jan. 23, 2021 * Brent crude oil in dollars per barrel, shown next to each time period 10 In 2019, U.S. and Foreign Airlines Offered a Record 3.16M Daily Seats From U.S. Airports In 2019, 2.7 Percent YOY Growth in Flights Helped Drive 3.5 Percent Growth in Seats Scheduled U.S. Airport Flights/Day (000s) Scheduled U.S. Airport Seats/Day (Millions) 26.1 24.3 24.5 24.8 25.4 20.8 15.8 3.1 3.2 2.7 2.8 2.9 1.9 2.6 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Sources: Diio by Cirium published schedules as of July 9, 2021, for all U.S. and non-U.S. airlines 11 Scheduled Flights From Small Community U.S. Airports* Up 10 Percent From 2015 to 2019 Flights Up 14 Percent at “Small Hub” Airports and 6 Percent at “Nonhub” Airports 7,000 6,512 6,000 5,443 5,123 5,000 2,805 4,657 2,372 4,000 2,322 2,199 3,000 2,000 3,707 3,072 2,801 Average Flights Daily Average 1,000 2,458 0 2005 2010 2015 2019 FAA Small Hub Airport FAA Nonhub Primary Airport Notes: Recession (Dec-2007–Jun-2009); FAA pilot qualification (1,500-hour) rule effective Jul-2013; pilot flight/duty/rest rule effective Jan-2014 * Per https://www.faa.gov/airports/planning_capacity/passenger_allcargo_stats/categories/, U.S. airports with less than 0.25% of annual passenger boardings Sources: Diio by Cirium published schedules as of Jan. 10, 2020, for all airlines providing scheduled passenger service from U.S. airports to all destinations 12 Airlines Have Deployed Larger Aircraft, and Mainline-Only Carriers Have Grown Regionals Now Just 43% of Domestic Departures; Over Half of Those are Large RJs % of Domestic U.S. Departures by Aircraft Size* 11 11 34 39 37 36 22 18 8 15 23 26 45 38 21 17 2005 2010 2019 2021 ≤ 50 51-100 101-150 151+ Source: Diio by Cirium published schedules as of July 9, 2021 * Numbers may not add to 100 due to rounding 13 100 125 150 175 200 Ultra Low Ultra All Almost Airlines U.S. Have Migrated to Aircraft Larger Domestically Source: Source: 50 75 Diio Diio Average Seats per Domestic Departure by Marketing Airline* by Marketing Departure Domestic per Seats Average by Cirium Cirium by 83 - Cost Carriers Operate the Most Seats per Domestic Flight Domestic per Seats Most the Operate Carriers Cost schedules as schedules of July 9, 2021, for selected marketing airlines 102 99 102 107 112 111 126 122 94 2010 119 123 133 2019 138 14 144 136 2021 151 155 147 144 160 * I ncludes flights by airline operated partners regional/express 150 170 175 153 184 187 113 191 193 Domestically, Traditional U.S. Network Carriers Fly Similarly Sized Mainline Equipment Aircraft Size Varies More Widely Across Their Regional Partners Average Seats per Domestic Departure for Traditional U.S. Network Carriers 175 150 168 167 166 165 165 160 159 159 155 152 125 147 143 100 75 76 76 74 69 67 67 50 64 60 60 56 52 25 51 0 Alaska American Delta United Alaska American Delta United MAINLINE OPERATIONS REGIONAL PARTNER OPERATIONS 2010 2019 2021 Source: Diio by Cirium schedules as of July 9, 2021 15 Preceding the Pandemic, Nonstop Domestic Service Was More Prevalent Than Ever Before Share of Busiest Markets With a Nonstop Service Option Rose From 69% in 1990 to 90% in 2019 Share (%) of Top 2000 Domestic Markets (Origin-Destination Airport Pairs) With Nonstop Service* 100 90.1 90 84.5 80.7 78.8 80 75.3 69.2 70.8 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 Source: Compass Lexecon analysis of DOT O&D, OAG and T-100 and Form 298C * Top 2000 markets accounted for 80% of domestic O&D passengers in 2019; nonstop = as at least 40 round-trip flights per quarter 16 From 2000-2019, the Number of Competitors per Domestic Trip Rose From 3.33 to 3.46 In 2019, the 500 Busiest City Pairs—Accounting for 62% of Passengers—Averaged 3.8 Competitors Average Number of Competitors* in Domestic U.S.
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