HURRICANE TRACKING ADVISORY eVENT™

Hurricane Gonzalo Information from NHC Advisory 12A, 8:00 AM EDT Wednesday October 15, 2014 Gonzalo is maintaining its strength as a strong category 3 hurricane. Hurricane conditions are possible over on Friday with Tropical storm conditions possible by early Friday morning.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 125 mph Position Relative to 660 miles SSW of Bermuda Speed: (cat. 3) Land: Est. Time & Region: Fri 10/17 on Bermuda Min Central Pressure: 951 mb Coordinates: 23.1 N, 67.7 W

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained Wind 115 miles Bearing/Speed: NW or 320 degrees at 13 mph 95+ mph (cat. 2+) Winds Extent: Speed: Forecast Summary  The current NHC forecast map (below left) shows Gonzalo approaching Bermuda over the next few days as a major hurricane with 110+ mph winds. The NHC gives Bermuda a 32% chance of seeing hurricane force winds within the next three days.  The windfield map (below right) is based on the NHC’s forecast track. The GFDL forecast track – one of many used by the NHC to inform their official forecast - is shown as an alternative perspective and has Gonzalo taking a more westerly track. The GFDL forecast track is shown in bold gray and the NHC’s official forecast track is shown in bold black. To illustrate the uncertainty in Gonzalo’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the map in pale gray – most of these appear faintly underneath the windfield.  Hurricane conditions are possible over Bermuda on Friday with Tropical storm conditions possible by early Friday morning.  Large swells generated by Gonzalo are affecting portions of the , the northern coasts of and the Dominican Republic, and portions of . Swells will reach much of the East Coast of the United States and Bermuda on Thursday.

Forecast Track for Gonzalo Forecast Windfield for Gonzalo (National Hurricane Center) (Based on NHC at 06:00 UTC) from Kinetic Analysis Corp.

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A hurricane watch - meaning that hurricane conditions are possible within the warning area – is in effect for Bermuda. A watch is typically issued

48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Summary of Activity to Date

Benchmarking the 2014 Atlantic Season to Date 2014 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 - 2011

Tropical Total Cat 3-5

Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes

2014 year to date (1/1/14 – 10/15/14) 7 6 2

2013 year to date (1/1/13 – 10/15/13) 11 2 0

1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8 1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7

2014 CSU season forecasts 10 4 1 (Colorado State University at July 31)

2014 NOAA season forecasts 8-13 3-6 1-2 (NOAAs Climate Prediction Center at Aug 7)

Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2014 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Gonzalo is the seventh named storm of the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane The graph above shows 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and Season. Eleven named storms and two hurricanes, Humberto and average occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It Ingrid, had occurred by this date last year. The next tropical storm of shows, for example, that Gonzalo became the seventh named storm 2014 will be named Hanna. of the season on October 12 which is later than the average occurrence of the season’s seventh named storm. The graph also shows that the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2

hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5).

New Potential and Average Remaining Risk NHC Estimates of New Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Formation Average Risk Remaining in the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season The map below illustrates the NHC’s estimate of tropical cyclone Atlantic hurricane activity and major hurricane activity (categories 3-5) formation potential over the next 48 hours in the Atlantic. The both peak in September, as the graph below illustrates. The average yellow region east-southeast of Gonzalo has a 10% change of remaining percentage of days with Atlantic hurricane activity at Oct 15 is formation within the next 48 hours. 11% for all hurricanes and 9% for major hurricanes.

National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Formation Estimates on October 15, 2014 Percentage of Days with Active Hurricanes since 1900

60% 100%

48% 80%

36% 60%

24% 40%

12% 20% Risk Daily Average Average RemainingRisk 0% 0% Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

All Hurricanes (1-5) Major Hurricanes (3-5)

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