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7-1-2008 The seU of Ships' Protests for Reconstruction of Synoptic-Scale Weather and Tropical Storm Identification in the Late Eighteenth Century Louis K. McNally

Kirk A. Maasch University of Maine - Main, [email protected]

Kimberly A. Zuill

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Repository Citation McNally, Louis K.; Maasch, Kirk A.; and Zuill, Kimberly A., "The sU e of Ships' Protests for Reconstruction of Synoptic-Scale Weather and Tropical Storm Identification in the Late Eighteenth Century" (2008). Earth Science Faculty Scholarship. 105. https://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/ers_facpub/105

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Weather – July 2008, Vol. 63, No. 7 the late eighteenth century and tropical storm identificationin ofsynoptic-scaleweather struction The useof ships’ protests for recon- Kirk Allen Maasch the late eighteenth century claimantwould the late eighteenth century Public dealswith protestsa Notary today, upon arrivalathisdestination. Although claims againsthimortheship’s owners thus protecting theCaptain from insurance to thenearestbe reported Crown colony, an insured Englishshiporitscargo would 1785,anincident ofdamagesustainedby In source Ships’ protests asadata thaniscurrently available.back into history Atlantic basin,andelsewhere, muchfurther sion ofthehurricanedatabaseinNorth new datasource canalso beusedfor exten- The application ofthemethodologyto this for future insurance andreinsurance rates. alysis ofrecurrence rates, withimplications 1700s would provide thebasisfor arean- that reconstruction ofadditionalyears inthe the 1996storm is400–500years. We suggest rence rate calculated inprevious studiesof storms are identical. remarkably The recur- evidence, we are ableto assessthatthese both forensic reconstruction and anecdotal a significant role inthe1785storm. With tem identifiedinaship’s protest played 1785, we demonstrate thatthetropical sys- tropical system, withonereconstructed in England in1996,whichincludedanoffshore sources ofmeteorological information. Ocean in1785. They are shown to beviable Atlanticor subtropical system intheNorth (McNally, 1994,2004)to identifyatropical through forensicextracted synopticanalysis We alongwithdata usetheminthisarticle, damages andindemnifyCaptains from fault. as legaldocumentsto record anddetail Ships’ protests have beenusedfor centuries 3 2 1 Kimberley J. Zuill Louis McNally, K. III, Bermuda Weather StGeorge’s, Service, ofMaine,University Orono, Maine, USA Embry-Riddle AeronauticalEmbry-Riddle University, Bermuda Daytona Beach,,Daytona USA By comparing adamaging storm inNew 3 2 and 1 ingly represented. After all, iftheweather the protests are quite concise andpainstak- early 1786refer to weather events in1785. the weather ofthetime.structing Nonefrom and contain valuableinformation for recon- 13 protests detailspecificweather events, weather events inlate 1784. The remaining ing, leaks, and poorcrew andtwo work, or navigation, two casesofimproper load- events, includingthree mistakesinsteering deal withnon-weather-related damage rance theremainder, ontheIslands. Of seven legal matters unrelated to maritimeinsu- found 21protests. these, onedeals with Of the years 1693to 1887.For theyear 1785,we fromvarious compilations andcollections Approximately 4800protests existthere in Bermuda Archives inHamilton, Bermuda. foravailable mostwasBermuda. port to swear outaprotest.in port The nearest theywere fact, notevenIn allowed to call ing incommerce inmost Americanports. were, atthetime, prohibited from engag- English shipsatall. Ships flaggedinEngland andnewStates prohibited tradewith ports United States ofAmerica,andindeedmany yet recognize adocumentfrom thenew insurance syndicates, however, would not Americanseaboard. the North The English were available inmany locationsalong Ocean. Prior to thattime, colonial Governors occurred Atlantic inthewestern North options for filingaprotest ifanaccident both blameandliability. dicates, alsocleared theCaptain orowner of as alegaldepositionfor theinsurance syn- risk. Thus theprotest, inadditionto acting Captain’s reputation andcareer wasalsoat that any questionasto faultberemoved. A many itwasimperative personalfortunes, when asingleship’s cargo could represent could beheldpersonallyliable. atime In son for thedamage, theCaptain orowner Captain ortheship’s owner. Without area- would have hadgrave repercussions for the reasons. Any damageto ashiporitscargo the colonial Secretary. ment would thenbeofficiallyrecorded with Governor andswear outaprotest. The docu- have to appearpersonallybefore acolonial The weather observations contained in The weather observations There are thousandsofprotests inthe 1785,aBritishship’sIn Captain hadfew Protests were filedfor any numberof from 1785,and istranscribedasfollows: from theMaster andMate ofthe document mustbeaccurately transcribed. different places ineachprotest, theentire weather informationthe actual appearsin or phraseswhichmay beobscured. Because quialisms canalsoaidindetermining words recording secretary’s penmanshipandcollo- document to document.Familiarity with the and legalterminologies are repeated from There are occasions where specificphrases parisons canbemadewithotherprotests. sion completely obscures theoriginal, com- caseswhere1). In thereverse writingimpres- the original ledgers, mustbeignored (Figure impressed uponapage from afacingpagein mar mustbeunderstood. Reverse writing, is notnecessary, thepenmanshipandgram- 2004) wasemployed. Althoughtranslation forensic synopticanalysis (McNally, 1994, scenario canbeachieved. sonable reconstruction ofameteorological ship’sfound inanordinary log. Thus, area- revealed infarmore detailthanmightbe the records oftheseweather events are much aspossibleabouttheevent. Indeed, ship, great care would betakento record as was thecauseofdamageto acargo ora As anexample, Figure 2shows aprotest theweather information, order to In extract Thunder, RainandCross Lightning, heavy West,by EasttoNorth accompanied with ing excessively East hard from theNorth away hisForetopsail Yard, the windblow- about 4oClockpastthemeridian hecarried Christophers. at Thatonthefollowing Day lastpastboundtoSt. ofJanuary Day from HamptoninVirginia onthe26th he sailedinandwiththesaidBrigantine Holy Evangelists God, ofAlmighty That onthe Vigilant, whosolemnlymadeOath BrigantineorVessela certain called the appeared Capt. Francis Hay, Masterof 1785 before metheGovernor personally ofFebruary yeKnow thatthis2ndDay Instrument ofProtest shallcome Greeting. To allwhomthispresent Writing or in ChiefandVice Admiral oftheseIslands, Captain, General, Governor, Commander HisExcellency“By William Browne Esq. Browne” IslandsWm“Bermuda aliasSomers’ Vigilant Using ships’ protests to identify tropical storms Weather – July 2008, Vol. 63, No. 7 209 Sea. 28th the Gale on Jan That continued Quantity shipped a great and that he of the upon Deck,water but that towards more became DayClose of the the Weather varia- with little continued and moderate 31st, when he” tion until the the North from Breezes had fresh “he and North Norththis Day East. That on he sent it up and yard, fished his Foretopsail on his voyage & proceeded bent the sail, Noon That at Topsails. under close reefed Observation by in Latitude 33.11 he was bore 65.43, & That he then & Longitude of in OrderWestward to go to the away & seem’d increased Bermuda, as the wind That on the 1st to incline to the Eastward. Day at one oClock past Instant of February out of his Topsails Meridian he let the Reefs growing weather but that at 5 oClock the them again & at 8 squally he close reefed That at oClock, his Mainsail. double reefed he infortunately10 oClock or thereabouts struck upon the Rocks at the North West part That of these Islands and stuck fast. he made every possible effort to get his Effect but without & that he lay off, Vessel beating on the Rocks until the Morning, the from when a number of Boats came with & brought to his Assistance shore conducted whom he was by them a Pilot Manner also And in like Bay. into Mangrove John Buchanan, Mate of the said appeared who solemnly declared Brigantine Vigilant, related before herein facts that the several named Francis the before and defined by the” Wherefore just and true. Hays were his Hay for himself, “the said Francis & all oth- OwnersMariners, & Freighters ers who it doth shall or may concern, (overwritten) against protest does hereby and all Damages the Matters aforesaid and also or sustained thereby occasioned Delays, Disappointments, against all Costs, & all other Charges Detentions, Losses, which Law or Form Matters and things by and perse- against or may protest he can the Appearers in the said protest vering set their Hands. hereunto have aforesaid Hay Francis John Buchanan me the before This done and protested whereof In Testimony aforesaid Governor the hand & caused set my hereunto I have Seal Great of these Islands to be hereto written above the day and Year affixed Command By His Excellency’s Jun’r Henry Tucker Secretary” The importance cannot be The of this protest understated, in that the Captain appeared appeared in that the Captain understated, the very afternoon his the Governor before which Bay, ship was escorted Mangrove into end of the main island in is at the western was or not the Governor Whether Bermuda. is unknown, of the nearby the offices but at the time in and SecretaryGovernor were 20 km end, at the far eastern or St George’s, land. by so away (b) , 1785. (Courtesy, Bermuda Archives.) , 1785. (Courtesy, Vigilant (c) Figure 2. Ship’s protest from the from protest 2. Ship’s Figure Figure 1. Example of obscuration of text by impression of reversed writing from facing page facing writing from of reversed of text impression by of obscuration 1. Example Figure Bermuda Archives.) (Courtesy, (bleedthrough). (a) 210

Weather – July 2008, Vol. 63, No. 7 Using ships’ protests to identify tropical storms illustrated here inthisexample isapparent. tional valueto forensic synopticanalysis as theaddi- torical legaldocumentsiscertain, day, andthevalueof ships’ protests ashis- to sailanother Although bothshipssurvived is provided by theprotest filed by the Vigilant tion, becomes validwhentheprotest from didate for ‘outlier’ statusinareconstruc- initiallyacan- The Sandy Hookobservation, thatindicates astorm offshore.observations America andpersistence from previous days’ it isonlyinference windsin from surface aged ontheshoalsapproach. made itbackto Bermudaonlyto bedam- constantly fullofWater.’ hours, duringwhichhisdeckswere forty-eight whichlastedwithunremitting violenceSea for West North accompanied withahigh North Eastand North ofWind Gale atNorth heavy and Longitude 72.32West there came ona ofFebruary inLatitude35.48North 2nd Day the protest from the of the control ofapilotisanotherportion the day the Vigilant by the could alsobethesameevent encountered successfully putto sea intheevening. This dragging theship’s anchor. However, they ‘at daylightsprang upafresh breeze atNNW’ 1785. January This account reads, inpart: inBermudaon31 The schoonerwasinport filed by theMasterofschooner logical events isprovided by anotherprotest Vigilant inthewindsto thealreadyshift damaged isthissecond storm thatbroughtIt the shore windsfrom Virginia to . was inferred ofoff- by otherobservations andGeneralGazette Advertiser NewJersey( Hook, of observation ‘stormy weather’ atSandy isnoted inAmericaonlybysity thelone andintensified offshore. inten-January Its moving offshore from theChesapeakeon29 tered by the This would betheweather system encoun- storm’s intensification intheAtlantic Ocean. on 27January, whichcould account for the front wasmoving offshore from NewEngland to seathefollowing day. cold Asecondary have formed, whichwould have moved out January, alongwhichastorm could easily frontal system intheChesapeakearea on26 in 1785(McNally, 2004),there wasatrailing the reconstruction ofAmericanobservations enough to damagetheship’s rigging. From cates thepassageofafrontal system strong notation ofthethunderandlightning, indi- by theMasterof winds by eastto north-west of north-east tion becomes clearinthattheobservations Without theinformation from the On 2February, the the morningafter Additional support forAdditional thesemeteoro- support stormThe originated next asaweak low The valueofthemeteorological informa- Vigilant isconsidered. Further verification strucktherocks inBermuda, and , andeventually causeditswreck. Vigilant Vigilant on28January. finally made port under finallymadeport on 28 January 1785. on28January Fowle’s NewHampshire Vigilant Tryal The : Tryal , along with the , alongwiththe ‘but thatonthe , 1785),but eventually Vigilant Tryal Tryal . , , . andstalledina slowing sure inCanada, moved to south- western moved eastward; itthenblocked highpres- pressure system originated inColorado, and storm isnotuncommon. The original low- oftheoccluded front. along andnorth Lili into analready wet system, extratropical advective mechanismfor precipitation from (2000) shows thepresence ofanefficient nearby offshore atthesametime. Cannon system wasHurricaneLili,whichpassed tem (Cannon, thiscase, 2000). In thetropical an occluded front to anoffshore tropical sys- via connection andadirect latitude cyclone of bothamature, cut-off, extratropical, mid- uncommon, however, asitwascomprised Bob (Sardinha, 1998). The 1996event was falling tropical systems, suchasHurricane convergence ofprecipitation, orby land- driven by eitherpersistent bandingand sive rainfalland floodinginsouthernMaine event. There are recorded instances ofexces- from the and cooperative reports observer Cannon, synoptic 2000)aswell astheactual 1997;Keim,1998; andStewart, (Hodgkins tion regarding 1996storm theOctober There are numerous sources ofinforma- 1996storm October meteorological situation. offloodingandthesynoptic the extent 1996,including England on18–22October storm andflood inthesameregion ofNew larities between thisstorm andthenotable the observers. There are simi- remarkable of inthememory length, anditsrarity regarding ofthestorm, theintensity its andjournalentries are quite explicit diary Valley ofsouthernMaine. Contemporary centrated floodinginthePresumpscot River across allofeastern NewEngland, withcon- 18–22 October. Storm damagewasreported in theyear 1785wasthestorm andfloodof of themostnotablemeteorological events reanalysis oftherecurrence rate. and reconstruction may beasoundbasisfor researched to date, suggeststhatfurther the storm in1785,theonlyyear reconstruct- 1997;Keim,1998).Identification of Stewart, and 1996 storm is400–500years (Hodgkins calculated recurrenceporary rate ofthe America. North The contem- north-eastern the comparison withthestorm of1996 in of aship’s protest from Bermuda,validating in 1785wasaccomplished through theuse dotal data.Identificationofatropical system from bothforensic reconstruction andanec- the 1785storm, similaritieswere recognized more thantwo centuries earlierin1785.For storms, oneoccurring in1996,andtheother Here we compare two nearlyidentical Maine,1996 inSouthern USA storms andfloodsof1785 Comparison oftheOctober The synoptic situation for the primary The synopticsituationfor theprimary United States, one thenorth-eastern In ditions (Figure 3). which alsoresulted insimilarfloodingcon- basis for comparison withthe1785event, moisture from HurricaneLiliprovide the storm andthetropical both theprimary more widespread. The combined of effects were entrained, floodingmay have become zed excess additionalbands precipitation. If synoptic system, itresulted inhighlylocali- moisture wascombined withthatfrom the advected towards asmallarea. Once this ture formed atrainofradarechoesandwas area.southern Maine Bandedtropical mois- additional excess rainfallinto thespecific This isthemechanismresponsible for the cal moisture from HurricaneLilioffshore. oftheadditionaltropi-and advection synoptic situation. from floodingmightbeexpected this Some significant events inthearea (Cannon, 1992). precipitation, andhasbeennoted inother 1995) alsoplayed arole inincreasing the winter storms in the area (Malargus andheaviereffect precipitation common in convergence, however, producing abanded widespread orlocalized flooding. Low-level heavy, butgenerallynotsufficientfor either for asustained period ofrain,occasionally few days.next This scenario issufficient ted into atrough, andlingered over the intonorthward Massachusetts, deteriora- England. The attendant occlusion worked the storm’s progress New into northern level flow becamecutoff, slowing further nificant GulfofMexico moisture, theupper- Pennsylvania, having already entrainedsig- storm matured to occlusion the surface in upper-level flow As anddeveloping block. poral resolutions, andseven diaries that diarieswithvarioustem- al observational the instrumentsoftime, eightgener- madewith regular weather observations data usedincludedsixcompilations of America.Observational North north-eastern oftheatmosphere.workings werepaper reports, combined to reveal the protests, andothersources, suchasnews- lers’ andtrappers’ journals, ships’ logsand unrelated non-homogenousdatasets, trave- at theregional synoptic scale. Apparently ral representation oftheweather patterns were shown to beenoughto obtainagene- small amountsofanecdotal comments alone data by usingforensic synopticanalysis. Even dotal references littleobservational andvery scale events could beachieved withanec- and accurate reconstruction ofsynoptic- 1994) proved thatsuccessful hindcasting for theyear 1785.Previous studies(McNally, America ofNorth portion the north-eastern meteorological mapsonasynopticscalefor datato reconstruct historical observational (2004)useddiariesandvariousMcNally Weather in1785 What isnotcommon istheentrainment The generalarea ofstudyencompassed et al.,

Using ships’ protests to identify tropical storms Weather – July 2008, Vol. 63, No. 7 211 Many records identify the specific damage records Many a number of simi- shows 1785 event The October 1785 storm Reports heavy of sustained rain in October in concentrated geographically 1785 are rain but area, the central all of the sources is mentioned in almost the north-easternthroughout States United speak comments 2004). Numerous (McNally, unceasing ‘hard, a a 48-hour rain event, to extentThe ‘freshet’. and rapid flood or rain’, the October storm by affected of the area loca- the widespread is also outlined by the north, heavy To tions of the diarists. reported damage are rain and attendant Maine. Hallowell, to Vermont Newbury, from repor- are crests the south, record Towards in southern New Hampshire rivers on ted and northern rain Disruptive Massachusetts. of this Analysis Virginia. is reported south to that the however, indicates, spatial coverage in southern Maine and bulk of the rain fell New Hampshire. Valley River sustained in the Presumpscot the to compared When of southern Maine. during damage reported in the same area of 1996, the simi- the 18–22 October storm Navigation remarkable. quite larities become both to canoe is common and evacuation by mentions of washed-out are There storms. in both River bridges on the Presumpscot intensity of the localized The cases as well. pres- the indicate flooding and damage may similar rainfall, enhanced of tropically ence no other are Indeed, there the 1996 event. to other in any of this scale alluded to events 1785. Other from heavy or extendedsources the number do not produce rain events of any or character from of the comments no other are There the diarists or observers. flooding. cases of such excessive that of Octoberlarities to 1996, coinci- A dentally including nearly identical dates. east- moved area high-pressure cold-core which a ridge from Hudson Bay, from ward 5). 18–19 Octoberwas noted 1785 (Figure a form began to flow Upper-level passed northward through as a warm front of 19 October. on the evening New Haven in Dedham, was noted weather ‘Stormy’ 1785). (Ames, Massachusetts that evening the front By the morning of 20 October, the south- into moved have appears to ern portion of the northern New England anecdotal and historical information was was information historical and anecdotal 1785 from newspapers five from red gathe thirteen logs, ships’ ship’s Four and early 1786. Company Bay Hudson’s and three protests, used. also were factory in Canada records In this article on how specifically focus we add impor- can potentially protests ships’ detailed a more allowing tant information that have storms of severe reconstruction of the United impacted seaboard the eastern meteorological systematic prior to States observations. 20N 20N

30N 40W 30N NS

40N 40W 40N 50N

50N 50W

00Z 20 Oct 1996 00Z 22 Oct 1996

NB

50W 60W

Atlantic Ocean 60W ME Deane Sewall Holyoke Ballard N.H. Gazette 70W Wigglesworth Ames

70W Wight Hasey Stiles Coventry Gilman & Kingston NH to Hudson Valley Crauch Sanborn Travel from Scotland QU Cushing 80W Allen Patten 80W CT MA VT Buell Alling Stiles

90W Some resolution. a very temporal irregular at recorded of these additional diaries were tra- from while others are specific locations, Additional and soldiers. of immigrants vels Beebe 90W

NY

40W 40W 40W NJ Coventry DE

Adair

50W 50W 50W Lewis Kemble 19–23 October, 1996. 19–23 October, MD

UTC

60W 60W 60W PA Buell Madison to Fort Pitt Washington VA March from CT

70W 70W 70W Brunswick House WV

80W 80W 80W Ft. Albany 50N 50N 50N Churchill 40N 40N 90W 90W 90W 40N 30N 30N 30N 20N 20N Figure 4. Network of observation sites used to reconstruct daily weather for 1785. daily weather 4. Network of observation sites used to reconstruct Figure Figure 3. Synoptic maps from 00 maps from 3. Synoptic Figure contain anecdotal, or non-meteorological or non-meteorological anecdotal, contain 4). A number observational (Figure evidence culled from were of individual comments although with other diaries as well, eighteen 00Z 23 Oct 1996 00Z 21 Oct 1996 00Z 19 Oct 1996 20N 212

Weather – July 2008, Vol. 63, No. 7 Using ships’ protests to identify tropical storms Figure weather 5.Reconstructed afternoon maps, 19–26October, 1785. inawidearea andnorth-west to thenorth there ofwindsshifting were observations the low continued to move justoffshore, moved Bay. closeto Massachusetts very As border, low pressure surface appearsto have high pressure moved to the /Ontario 1785). Onthemorningof21October, as noted (Holyoke, inSalem,Massachusetts Philadelphia to Massachusetts. late’‘Rain was erly flow withrainwasestablishedfrom clearing in Virginia, andasteady south- in OrangeCounty, Virginia aswell. (1785)notedMadison a rainy morning’‘very Alexandria, Virginia 1785),and (Washington, states. Horseraces were postponedat weather wasdescribedinthemid-Atlantic states, whileadditional By the afternoon of20October,By theafternoon itwas 25 Oct1785 19 Oct1785 23 Oct1785 21 Oct1785 dvlpn wet developing into alingeringtrough, similarto the1996 assumption. This front may have deteriorated of theprevious few this days alsosupports in Massachusetts. Forensic synopticanalysis of astalledwarmoroccluded front situated would indicate thatthoseareas were north ern Vermont, NewHampshire andMaine fromsouthern NewEngland, south- reports occlusion. When compared from withreports upper-level, negatively tilted trough and and southernMaine. Massachusetts, southernNewHampshire, in many innorthern locations, particularly this entire time, rainswere heavy reported but noted ‘atmosphere thick’. very During someclearing, (1785)reported Madison to Pennsylvania. Maine from south-central This supports theintensification ofan This supports 24 Oct1785 26 Oct1785 22 Oct1785 20 Oct1785 advected into theregion. and didnotreturn. Cold Canadian airthen ing storm waspushedsouthof Virginia the 26th. The trailingfront from theretreat- was noted inShrewsbury, by Massachusetts Hampshire to State. A ‘great frost’ onthe24thwaslocated from New rain endedinmany locations. Asecondary and the west inConnecticut, wasreported by 23October,fact, a ‘cool, stiffwind’ from to theinitiallong-wave trough position.In eventually and offshore eastward drifted begun to behindthesystem advect asit coldbe thecase, airwould thenvery have low at500HPacut-off (mb).Shouldthat ing therainfall, andimplyingcapture by a onshore ineastern Massachusetts, continu- face low appearsto have retrogressed back moisture outlined above (Figure 5). 22nd, providing asource for theadditional occlusion from late onthe21stinto the and driven into NewEnglandalongthe been captured by theoffshore warmfront the tropical system could have reached and quadrantsof precipitation inthenorthern tion would beexpected. Therefore, bandsof tropical system, accelera- rapidnorthward ofcapturethis type andredirection ofa America.In at orneartheeastcoast ofNorth have beencaptured by thelongwave trough with thecourse ofahurricanethatwould on the22ndto the23rd wasalsoconsistent cane. The rapidpassageofthe ‘gale’ from late with thepassageofatropical storm orhurri- ofthewindswere consistentobservations both Captains swore theirprotests, inwhich change course for Bermuda.Once inport, ing thelatter sufficientlyfor herCaptain to onto therocks atBermuda,anddamag- passage ofastrong ‘gale’, forcing theformer tests, 1785)noted therapidapproach and Apollo ships intheAtlantic Ocean, thebrigantine earlier. and southernNewHampshire) aday ortwo rain event (e.g. upriver to thenorth central River Valley, whichwould pointto aheavy Haverhill, Massachusetts, intheMerrimac areThese found reports incomments from high water inthedays following thestorm. inland comes from numerous mentionsof dence ofrainofftheocean penetrating any moisture from theeast.Additional evi- amechanismforflow tapping supported October,21 1785(Perley, 1891). This onshore driven onto PlumIslandonthenightof aDutch shipwas fact, this assumption.In ofanonshore windsupport 1785. Reports October Cape late Ann,Massachusetts on21 have remained thesameineithercase. event, buttheadvective dynamicswould developed anocclusion the thatconnected Both the1785system andthe1996system Comparison By 22October, sur- theoriginal primary At thissametime, 1785,two 22October The front would appearto bestillsouthof andtheschooner Nancy (Ships’ pro- Using ships’ protests to identify tropical storms Weather – July 2008, Vol. 63, No. 7 213 .

. BAMS Weather Weather Eastern Region . Harvard Postprints, Third Third Postprints, 1997. Flood 1997. Flood 1995. Winter Winter 1995. The diaries of George The diaries of George The weather of 1785: The weather Application of foren- Application 1785. Atheneum 1785. Atheneum Edward A. Holyoke A. Holyoke Edward (updated by Beven J, J, Beven by (updated MS Thesis, University University Thesis, MS Local climatological climatological Local A history of the Cayman Meteorological Journal Meteorological . PhD Thesis, University of University Thesis, . PhD Historic storms of New 1785. 2004. 1994. . American Philosophical : 5–20. 2000. A hydrometeoro- 1998. . 1785. 1992. 10 1785.

1992. Structure and evolution Structure 1992. and evolution 1998. Record precipitation precipitation 1998. Record 1891. The Salem Press and Publishing and Publishing Salem Press The . The Government of the Cayman of the Cayman Government The . . NWS, Gray, Maine, . NWS, Gray, The deadliest Atlantic tropical cyc- The deadliest Atlantic tropical Department of Commerce. :1061–1067. an interdisciplinary to meteo- approach using forensic reconstructions rolological synoptic analysis 132 pp. Orono, Maine, Perley S. 1995. 1492–present lones, Coral 1997). National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Florida, Gables, January 2004. Accessed pastdeadlytx1.html A. Sardinha in events database of top precipitation Maine G. Washington 1786 1784–June IV, Vol. Washington, Islands 94 pp. Grand Cayman, Islands, England. XXXIV:117–120. Company, J. Rappaport EN, Fernandez-Partagas D (eds). Charlottesville, Twohig Jackson D, 1978. Virginia, of Press University N. Williams sic synoptic analysis techniques for extrac- of meteorological tion and reconstruction a non-homogeneous information from data set. qualitative 90 pp. Orono, of Maine, McNally LK III. Cannon J. Cannon Southwest – storm of a flood producing 1989. 11–12 May, Maine, Workshop, National Heavy Precipitation NWS Memo. Technical NOAA PA, Pittsburgh, ER-87. JW. Cannon of the October assessment logical 1996 in Maine. rainstorm record 00-0. No. Attachment Technical and Gazette Hampshire New Fowle’s Advertiser. General New Hampshire. Portsmouth, Library, Hodgkins G. G, Stewart US 1996 in Southern Maine. of October, US Geological Department of the Interior, Investigations Water-Resources Survey, Report 97-4189. EA Holyoke Meteorological Journals, Salem, Journals, Meteorological 1754–1829 Massachusetts, Cambridge, Libraries, University Massachusetts. BD. Keim New England the coastal from totals of 20–21 Octoberrainstorm 1996. 79 Madison J. 1784–1793 Ms.; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Society, JS, Kocin Waldstreicher GM, Malargus Marine RA. AF, Gigi PJ, the eastern through forecasting weather I: an overview. Part States. United Forecasting McNally LK III. Correspondence to: Louis K. McNally, III K. McNally, to: Louis Correspondence Department Sciences, of Applied Aviation University, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical Morris Blvd, 600 S. Clyde Daytona FL 32114-3900, USA Beach, Email: [email protected] 2008 Society, Meteorological © Royal DOI: 10.1002/wea.272 . We . We Weather Nathaniel Ames Diaries . Dedham Historical Society, . Dedham Historical Society, . 1785. Ames N Ames 1758–1822 Dedham, Massachusetts. Assumptions have been made by vari- by been made have Assumptions the ships’ value of further into The research References Acknowledgements Wheeler Dennis thank authors wish to The of this special issue of as editor com- the constructive for also grateful are us by to ments and suggestions provided reviewers. anonymous two journalists are both similar and specific for for specific similar and both are journalists and temporal in both spatial each event similarityThe is further outlined ranges. the specific reports from by and results Maine of southern Valley River Presumpscot As each event. for areas and surrounding the by was exacerbated rainfall excessive in moisture tropical advection of offshore a similar situ- valley, river the same 1996 into in 1785. occurred have ation appears to agencies regarding and state ous federal of the 1996 storm, the expected recurrence year of a 400–500 be in excess to estimated (Hodgkinsevent and Stewart, 1997; Keim, of of the weather 1998). A reconstruction 1785 and the similarity in the anecdotal sug- both storms surrounding comments In directlygests that they can be compared. occlu- reaches storm a mature both cases, by is exacerbated and flooding sion nearby an additional from the inclusion of moisture in 1996, is the source source. from protests the use of ships’ with and, or storm Bermuda, it appears that a tropical in our 1785 example as hurricane is involved apart, 211 years are systems two The well. the year with only is found and this result Although 211 been investigated. 1785 having statisti- the basis for does not provide years reinsurance and flood insurance cal analysis, on been calculated have which may rates, even- basis of recurrence, the 400–500-year factThe be recalculated. need to tually may that the late-eighteenth-century research a leads to one year only covers used herein further that with reconstruction conclusion interval the recurrence of additional years, We frequent. might, in fact, more be even suggest that this method of reconstruction might serve end. that as a means to well light is evident, in the still available protests both the to contributions of the potential industryinsurance and the climatological paleotempestology As community. research the methodology, refined a more becomes at sea, using forensic identification of storms as both a discovery and synoptic analysis more much validation method becomes can protests use of the ships’ The important. an addi- and present assist in this research both identification of data for tional source the and expansion of of individual storms hurricane database. current

Apollo , 1785). Newspaper reports, 1785). Newspaper indicate that the hurricane indicate Nancy Fowle’s New Hampshire Gazette New Hampshire and Fowle’s Although the passage of a tropical sys- Although the passage of a tropical Surface analysis of the 1996 event (Cannon, Surface (Cannon, of the 1996 event analysis tem so late in the season in 1785 might be in the season in 1785 so late tem thus assessing the 1785 initially discounted, is ample there as a local disturbance, system sea- storm of an active tropical evidence in that year the Caribbean son throughout 1995). (Rappaport and Fernandez-Partagas, reports newspapers Indeed, numerous from one of hurricanes, to of the time referred which rivaled that of 1772 at Christianstaed, ( St Croix Advertiser General and the of 1785 ran northward in system or tropical This of Bermuda. inside (west) the Atlantic trough (and long-wave the storm places the North closer to position) even American further offering continent, that evidence was closer and tapped moisture tropical efficiently in the 1785 event. more damage from reported severe from lost in the were Lives hurricanes that year. Islands (Williams, Cayman 1992). Storms and both at the end of August noted were 1785. In fact, Hurricane Noel in September, a very similar Octoberin late 2007 followed track, was not involved though the storm the until it reached with a synoptic system Maritime Provinces. Canadian 2000) indicates that Hurricane Lili ran north-2000) indicates outside (east) Ocean in the Atlantic ward still reached precipitation of Bermuda, yet reports the The from New England. dying primarydying triple one on the with low have 1785 case seems to The point offshore. while the 1996 the primary just offshore, low Therefore, kept a surface system inland. low tilted negatively of the now the positions dif- be slightly may (mb) troughs 500 HPa advection the continued However, ferent. and sustained offshore from of moisture the identification of heavy rain necessitates the 1785 for source an additional moisture been a tropi- in fact, have which may, event, precipita- The passing offshore. cal system westward advected this system tion from along the north and/ side of the occlusion extreme southern into trough or remnant and in north-eastern New Hampshire, Maine, ItMassachusetts. centered was apparently in Maine. Valley River on the Presumpscot to continued at Cambridge pressure The of intensification indicating continued fall, or the passage of a primarythe nearby low, thus enhancing the nearby, system tropical offshore. from along the occlusion flow Conclusions similarities be many appear to There the 18–22 October and between storm flood of 1996, and that of on 18–22 October synoptic Forensic earlier. 1785, 211 years comparisons that significant shows analysis can be made of surface synoptic situation, of the levels the upper and implied for and reports Comments from atmosphere. both contemporary diarists and modern