Middle East Council

CMEC Annual Policy Lecture 2014

A Saudi Perspective of Middle East Events

HRH Prince Turki bin Faisal al-Saud

January 2014 Introduction

The Conservative Middle East Council was delighted to have asked HRH Prince Turki Al Faisal to deliver its 2014 Annual Policy Lecture and it gives me particular pleasure to see the text published here.

HRH Prince Turki has long been a leading figure in the public life of the Middle East. After joining the Saudi government in 1973 HRH Prince Turki headed its General Intelligence Directorate between 1977 and 2001 and later served as Ambassador to both the United Kingdom and the United States.

This lecture comes at a timely, but frankly very painful, juncture for the Middle East. The turbulence that has swept through the region over the last three years shows no sign of abating – and in many cases the winds of change have brought only violence and humanitarian tragedy. The region remains wracked by the competing dynamics of political Islam, military rule, and extremist and sectarian violence. Millions of young people in the Arab world remain unemployed and ill-educated, without hope of a better future. The plight of the Palestinians continues unresolved, as the central injustice of the region. For me, the overwhelming tragedy of this period has been that of Syria, where literally hundreds of thousands have been murdered – victims of the most unspeakable brutality.

Despite the uncertainty that is prevalent in the region, what is certain is that the British commitment to the Middle East – embodied by a multitude of old and cherished friendships and alliances in the region – remains undiminished. For those of us, like me, who have nourished an interest in the Middle East over the last four decades, it was a singular privilege to hear HRH Prince Turki’s thoughts – for which we are extremely grateful.

The Rt Hon Nicholas Soames MP PC President, Conservative Middle East Council CMEC Annual Policy Lecture 2014: HRH Prince Turki bin Faisal al-Saud A Saudi Perspective of Middle East Events

A Saudi Perspective of Middle East Events

When Nicholas Soames says come you have to oblige. So I am here with his invitation and hope that whatever I have to say will shed some light on events in the Middle East and be helpful in making up people’s minds on events there.

The tragedies happening in our part of the world are great and disturbing. Palestine of course has always figured at the centre of all of the tragedies in the Middle East. Today the United States is taking a very active role in trying to find a resolution in the Palestinian dispute. As you know, in 2002 Saudi Arabia presented to the world an initiative that the Kingdom and the rest of the Arab world signed onto which is a quid pro quo; that Israel give up land it took in 1967 in return for normalisation and peace with the Arab world. When that initiative was presented at the Beirut Conference in 2002 it was unfortunately not only rejected by Israel but also the rest of world did not give it much attention. I think if it had been taken seriously twelve years ago, we would be more at peace today than we are now. But we live in hope. What Mr Kerry is doing on the matter currently is laudable, but we should keep our applause until we see the results.

From that issue, one turns to the issue of Syria. I remember when the demonstrations of the Syrian people began in March 2011, the initial phases were completely peaceful resistance to a very oppressive and lethally efficient government machine that was using whatever means possible to quell the uprising by its people. For the first few months King Abdullah tried hard to convince President Assad that he must cede to the demands and the aspirations of the Syrian people peacefully. Unfortunately the regime then took on the stance that it was all or nothing and the killings and imprisonments began in a serious manner and the thugs were unleashed upon the peaceful demonstrations throughout Syria. The Kingdom tried after that, through the Arab League, to find some way to convince the Syrian Government to cede at least the issue of their people’s uprising to negotiation and understanding between them. That did not work. So the Kingdom and the rest of the Arab world took the issue to the United Nations Security Council with a proposition that seemed to be fair, and still is, I think; an interim government totally sovereign in its authority and in its ability to do things on the ground, and we nominated the then Vice President of the Assad regime to represent his government in that interim administration. Unfortunately at that time Russia and China saw fit to veto that proposition, while at the same time the Russians continued to supply Assad with whatever he needed in terms of armaments, advice and other lethal support.

Iran was equally culpable of support for the regime, not only in terms of military hardware but also in terms of boots on the ground. I don’t know if you saw the BBC documentary of a team of Iranian Revolutionary Guards filming themselves on the ground in Syria going into houses, interrogating civilians and even brushing away Assad’s own troops to get to their aims. Unfortunately for them they were ambushed by the opposition and the tape of their adventure was broadcast, clearly showing that Iran was culpable of supporting the very lethal machine that Bashar has deployed against his own people. Not only that, but Iran went on to convince the neighbouring Lebanese militia Hezbollah to come into Syria as an invading force, if you like, and fight against Syrian people. Notwithstanding that infringement on Syrian sovereignty, Iran also convinced Iraqi militias to come from other side of Syria to do the same thing against the Syrian people. So here we have a situation where nowadays Syria is literally under foreign occupation.

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And yet while all of this is happening, and with Russia and Chinese taking the position of opposition to any meaningful steps, the rest of us are not doing much. Governments throughout the world have not complied with requests for even the slightest support from an opposition that is crying out not for offensive weapons but for the means to defend themselves. During all this time there were meetings of the Friends of Syria and other such organisations which, while verbally very supportive of the opposition, have done very little to actually provide any means to help defend themselves. And then these same people turn around and complain about the opposition being fractious, and about there being terrorists who have come into the Syria to do whatever they can for their own purposes and not to liberate the Syrian people. It is a vicious circle. The more the fighting continues the more these terrorists will be drawn into the fray. So we see consequences in places like Lebanon, with not only bombing and assassinations taking place, but also preventing the formation of a government, because Hezbollah simply refuses to allow for a government that does not accede to own wishes. From the beginning I have described the Syrian situation as a festering wound. And unless you suture a wound and clean it, bacteria will continue to grow in that wound and transform itself into more lethal bacteria. And as the fighting continues, the bacteria will increase and the killing will increase.

Now what do we face today on the eve of the Geneva II talks? When Geneva I was held last year, it reached the same formula that the Arab Initiative suggested to the Security Council in 2011; for an interim government with full authority in Syria to bring together the factions and to end the fighting. But Geneva I did not succeed, because the regime did not accept that initiative. And now Geneva II refers to Geneva I as the basis for success for Geneva II. How that will work I do not know; we will have to wait and see. In the mean time, we have a saying in Arabic, ‘he murders the victim, and then he walks at his funeral’. Iran was invited yesterday to be a member of the Geneva II operation. How can that be acceptable? They have troops on the ground killing Syrians. And yet they are invited to come and provide a peaceful solution? It is unacceptable for the global community to allow this. Is it not enough that Russia, the convenor of Geneva II, is continuing to supply the Assad regime with all the support that it needs? And yet the rest of the world does nothing about what is happening. It makes the mind boggle to think of future conflicts where such unlawful conditions can be accepted as the norm. And the killing goes on. Millions have been displaced. And we sit back and do nothing. It is shameful. I hope that the rest of us will wake up and realise that we need to do something not tomorrow, but yesterday to stop the fighting in Syria.

I move on from there to a connected situation involving indiscriminate killing; Iraq. In the aftermath of the withdrawal of US and allied troops from that country, people thought that the conflict would end. And yet we see today that more Iraqis are being killed than at the height of the war in 2005, 2006 and 2007. Because of the basic principles of the occupation, in introducing sectarian and ethnic composition to Iraqi government, we see these results. I remember when I was Ambassador here in January 2003, just before the invasion was launched I was summoned with my brother ambassadors to the Foreign Office and asked, as Arab ambassadors, about any advice we may have. I told the then Foreign Secretary to remember not to introduce a sectarian formula for the future government of Iraq. I suggested that if you want to formulate a constituent assembly and government framework that there already exists in Iraq social and political institutions that you could use. You have the tribal configurations; Shia, Sunni, Kurd, Arab and Yazidis. Ask them to nominate representatives to this assembly. And then you have the ancient institution that has survived since Ottoman times and all the ups and downs since then; the village and town councils.

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Ask each of them to nominate a representative to the assembly. Furthermore, Iraq was known in the Arab world as the home of Unions. If someone sneezed in Iraq they would from a sneezers’ union. Use them too to nominate representatives. In this way you would have a truly representative government based on merit. Unfortunately a couple of months later I asked what had happened to my proposition and the Foreign Secretary said that the United States thought that tribes were archaic.

Of course we all know what happened afterwards; the disbanding of the army and police, the break down of all order, and the formation of a government based on sectarian divisions. Inevitably there was then conflict between the sects and ethnicities. The King tried to work with all the Iraqi factions and kept an equal distance from them, and hosted a conference with Shia and Sunni sheiks in Mecca several times to try to get them to come together. He invited all the political leadership that had emerged, but unfortunately there was no way the Government as it was set up was going to work especially after the election of Mr Maliki, when General Suleymani of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard pitched his tent in Baghdad to convince all the Shia factions to support Maliki against the results of the elections. And so with the support of the United States Mr Maliki was re-elected PM. And now Iraq approaches another election, at a time when Iraqi militias are fighting in Syria, and you have the cross border engagement of the so-called ISIS coming to the fore and occupying towns and villages in Iraq. How do you deal with that? We are a neighbouring country and we will suffer first the consequences of what is happening there. Countries like the UK, with its very special relationship with Iraq, should be playing more of a role in convincing governments around the world, especially the US, that the present set up in Iraq will continue to bleed Iraq, and you have to support the national interests of the Iraqi people instead of supporting a government that is tied hand and foot, and indeed by the neck, to Iran.

We move from there to the Yemen. It has a long history with us, and its tribal structure is very close to ours. Anyone who calls himself Arab owes his origin to Yemen. We are bound to events in Yemen, due to security considerations and it is a crucial component of the Arabian Peninsula since it occupies its strategically vital position. Saudi Arabia has engaged with Yemen forever and will continue to do so. It was thanks to the GCC countries, working with the United States and the UK, that an interim solution to the civil war that was going to take place in Yemen was put in place and the interim government is a work in progress that hopefully will succeed. It will need all of our support, not just the GCC’s, to help to the Yemeni people to support the interim government. Once it draws a constitution, a difficult and challenging process currently underway, we can offer financial and other support to make that effort succeed. If Yemen remains unstable, then the Arabian Peninsula and also East Africa will remain unstable. You have Somalia, Eritrea and Djibouti across the strait and having been Director of Saudi Intelligence I was very aware of the Dahlak Islands of Eritrea. One of them is leased to Israel and one is leased to Iran. You can imagine how that affects Saudi security considerations; these islands are only 200km from the Saudi coast and have to be taken into account by Saudi Arabia and its friends. My hope is that in Yemen President Hadi and the efforts to have a national dialogue which are still on-going will succeed in forming a constitution that will lead to elections and stability over the years.

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From Yemen we move to Bahrain. There we have seen another effort by Saudi Arabia and the GCC countries to be helpful in finding a negotiated resolution to the unrest that took place there. Many in the West say that when Saudi Arabia and the UAE sent in troops to Bahrain, they went to quell the uprising. Nothing is further from the truth. The Saudi and UAE troops went there to guard infrastructure and important installations in Bahrain. Google Earth will actually show you that camps of those troops are only around the port, the airport, the business district, and oil refineries. No Saudi or UAE soldier participated in any of the security operations undertaken by the Bahraini government against demonstrators. On the contrary, all of the GCC countries have publicly stated their endorsement of a negotiated resolution to the situation in Bahrain. We have also jointly offered Bahrain a $10 bn programme of support for their requirements and needs, which will hopefully bring much needed stability. I was in Bahrain last month for the Manama Dialogue, and so saw with my own eyes how the efforts of the leadership in Bahrain are geared to finding a resolution through negotiation with the opposition for the problems there. We can only hope for the best for the Bahrain people. The King of Bahrain has recently delegated his Crown Prince to reinvigorate negotiations and to raise the level of government participation in those negotiations to ministerial level; a good sign. A further positive factor of what happened was that the government was willing to invite an independent commissioner who critically reported what happened during the early demonstrations with concrete proposals for the government and opposition to follow. So the Kingdom’s position is that negotiation is how things should go, and we will do whatever is necessary to maintain stability there and Bahrain’s independence from any outside influence.

That notwithstanding, many people here will want to hear about Egypt, and we have seen how the roadmap made by the interim government when the Morsi machine was thrown out of office not just by the Army but by the people of Egypt. If it was not for them coming out in their millions the army would never have been able to force Morsi out. People quibble about if that was a military takeover, or coup d’etat, or whatever. My view is that what is happening is a crucial effort to bring stability to the largest Arab country. The Kingdom from the very start, in the wake of the fall of Mubarak, although we had our views about how the fall took place, nonetheless declared its public support for the new government and having extended $4bn of support while Morsi was President, has extended a further $5bn to the new interim government and with the roadmap drawn and the referendum on the new constitution, the next phase will have to be presidential or parliamentary elections, and the formation of a government that we all consider to be a legitimate representative of the Egyptian people. Egypt is the heart of the Arab world, and Saudi Arabia will never remove ourselves from helping our Egyptian brothers and sisters. If you look at the family ties between the two countries they are historic and in surprising proportions. Today more that 2 million Egyptians are working in Saudi Arabia. There are more than 700,000 Saudis living in Egypt, with families and children. You can see from that how close the relationship is, and it will continue to grow. Inevitably the return of Egypt to a leadership role in the Arab world is not only sought by Saudi Arabia but encouraged and actively worked for to meet the challenges that face the rest of the Arab world that I have described. It is unacceptable that the largest Arab country today is prevented from playing the critical role it should play in the framework of the Arab nation in general.

I will turn to the issue of nuclear disarmament and the 5+1 negotiations with Iran. The Kingdom has been clear on the matter from the very beginning; we support the establishment of a zone free from weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East. That is not unique to the Kingdom but it is the position of the Arab League in general. It was through the Leagues efforts in the NP review

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conferences from 1995-2010 that that issue was agreed to by the signatories to the Non Proliferation Treaty. There was an agreement that a conference would be held in Helsinki in 2012, and the custodian countries, the US, UK, Russia and UN were supposed to help Finland convene the conference. Unfortunately, the Finnish government was surprised by the US’ decision that there was not enough agreement amongst the NPT parties and Israel to make the conference succeed and so should be delayed. It was a major mistake on the part of all of us to accept the stoppage of the effort to put a stop to the very dangerous proliferation. We all know that Israel has nuclear weapons. They have not declared that but we all know it, we have turned our faces aside and let Israel do whatever it wished. Israel has signed but not ratified the convention on chemical nor biological weapons. Egypt as well has not signed the chemical weapons treaty. We have seen what happened in Syria; only through the threat of force by the United States that the Security Council was able to take action and remove the chemical weapons, but only after they had been used by the regime against the people.

In that context, the NPT allows for development of peaceful nuclear energy but it also imposes a very strict inspection regime on all signatories to the treaty. The value of having a zone free of WMD in the Middle East is that not only will it be inclusive but it will also level the playing field for everyone. I propose that there should be a Security Council resolution stating that the five permanent members want to see a zone free of WMD in the Middle East and will guarantee members of that zone technical and financial aid should they need it to develop civilian uses of nuclear energy but also provide them with a nuclear security umbrella so they do not have to worry about any threats from either outside or inside the neighbourhood. Also that they will also sanction any country seen to be developing WMD not only with economic but military measures. That is the only way such a zone can be put in order in the Middle East. The geographic area for this zone will extent from Iran all the way to the Atlantic Coast, including Turkey. Because if this nuclear issue is not kept under lock and key then proliferation will inevitably happen and in an area with so much killing already it is unimaginable what might happen if the issue is not resolved, and resolved quickly.

Finally I will turn to the issue of sectarian divisions in my part of the world. In August 2012, which happened to coincide with the holy month of Ramadan, King Abdullah called for a summit conference of Muslim States in the holy city of Mecca. He called on the Islamic world to resolve the sectarian differences that had arisen and come to the fore in recent fighting in Syria and Iraq. All 57 members of the Organisation of of Islamic Cooperation endorsed the King’s call. The King also asked member states to accept the formation of a centre to study the sectarian issue and find solutions for it in the holy city of Medina. This shows you where the Kingdom stands on the sectarian issue. This is another issue that is troubling for us, that Muslim should be killing fellow Muslims like you had in Europe when the Catholics and Protestants were going at each other’s throats. This is unacceptable and must be stopped as quickly as possible.

I will stop here Ladies and Gentlemen and I thank you for listening and for your patience.

5 Middle East Council

HRH Prince Turki bin Faisal al-Saud

HRH Prince Turki al Faisal was appointed an Advisor in the Saudi Royal Court in 1973. From 1977 to 2001, he served as the Director General of the General Intelligence Directorate (GID), the Kingdom’s main foreign intelligence service. In 2002, he was appointed Ambassador to the United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland by the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Fahd bin Abdulaziz.

Prince Turki was appointed Ambassador to the United States on July 20, 2005 and served until February 2, 2007. HRH Prince Turki is involved in a number of cultural and social activities. He is one of the founders of the King Faisal Foundation and is the chairman of the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies in Riyadh.

Conservative Middle East Council 55 Tufton Street, London, SW1P 3QL t: +44 (0) 20 7340 6007 e: [email protected] w: www.cmec.org.uk @CMECnews

The views expressed herein are those of the authors not of the Conservative Middle East Council or the Conservative Party.