U.S. Department of the Interior National Park  National Park Service Endangered Sentry Milk-Vetch Habitat Model  G G

Mark Nebel, Lori Makarick, Jan Busco, Shahed Dowlatshahi Grand Canyon National Park June 16, 2014 U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service

Astragalus cremnophylax var. cremnophylax

Sentry Milk-Vetch South Rim of Grand Canyon U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service

1903: First discovered at Grand Canyon H 1980: Listed as candidate threatened species (1 known population) I 1988: Half of population showed serious damage from trampling

1990: Federally listed as an endangered (150 known individuals) S

1994-Present: New populations discovered (currently 4, ~4000 ) T

2006: USFWS Recovery Plan O

2013: GIS Habitat Modeling R

2014: First new population established Y U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service

• Member of the Pea Family () • Endemic to Grand Canyon South Rim • Endangered by Habitat Loss, Climate Change, Drought, Trampling • Recovery Plan (2006) Objectives •Down-list (Minimum 4 Populations of 1000 plants each) •De-list (Minimum 8 Populations of 1000 plants each) •Stable or Increasing over a 30-year period • Partners: NPS, USFWS, The Arboretum at Flagstaff, Northern Arizona University, USGS, Desert Botanical Garden

• Use GIS Modeling capabilities to identify the most-suitable sites for Reintroduction Site Selection decision support U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service

Sentry Milk-Vetch and Related Species U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service

Model Variable: Geology ‡ Exclusively on Kaibab Limestone – White Limestone (Fossil Mountain Member) “Spits” – Grows in Cracks on Outcrops, along Edges, and on Graveled Slopes in Shallow Soil – Possible relationship to Geologic Structures or Breccia Pipes? U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service

Kaibab Limestone U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service

South Rim Sentry Milk-Vetch Populations And Kaibab Limestone Geology U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service

Model Variable: Geology

Geologic Unit Rank

Kaibab Limestone, undifferentiated 5

Kaibab Limestone, Fossil Mountain 5 member

Kaibab Limestone, Harrisburg member 4 U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service

Model Variable: Slope ‡ Proximity to Canyon Rim – No more than 10 meters from “Rim” – How to define/represent “Rim”? ‡GIS “RimLine” Insufficient ‡Proxy Slope – All known populations fall within one 10-meter pixel of Slope >29 Degrees U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service

Model Variable: Slope

Degrees Slope Rank

>29 5

10-29 3

0-10 1 U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service

Model Variable: Vegetation ‡ Proximity to Pinyon-Juniper Vegetation – “…just outside of Pinyon-Juniper Vegetation Types…” ‡ Pinyon-Juniper, Sagebrush, Deciduous Shrub, and Conifer SMV Intersects ‡ All known SMV populations are within 16 meters of specific P-J Associations ‡ Companion Species are important ‡ Open Areas without tall plant growth or dense grasses U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service Pinion-Juniper Vegetation Types U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service

Pinion-Juniper Vegetation Types U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service

Companion Species •Lavender Leaf Sundrop •Rockmat •Wild Buckwheat •Mountain Phlox •Eastwoods’ Sandwort •Fernbush •Mock Penny Royal U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service

Model Variable: Vegetation Type

Vegetation Association Rank

Intersected Types w/Key Companions 5

P-J Types +/- Key Companions 3-5

Other Veg Types +/- Key Companions 0-4 U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service

Model Variable: Distance to Pinyon-Juniper Associations w/Key Companion Species

Distance (Meters) Rank

0-16 5

16-30 4

30-60 3

60-200 2 U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service

Model Variable 5: Soil ‡ Crumbly Limestone-Gravel Soils ‡ Loose, Shallow, Inorganic Soils U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service

Model Variable: Soil

Soil Type Rank Lithic Ustic Torriorthents-Udic 5 Haplustolls-Rock outcrop complex Yumtheska-Rock outcrop complex 5 Skos family-Sandia-Rock outcrop 5 complex Meriwhitica-Rock outcrop complex 3

Other Soil Types 1 U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service

Model Variable: Aspect

Degrees Rank 0-25 4 25-56 5 56-90 4 90-186 4 186-270 2 270-360 4 U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service

Model Variable: Elevation ‡ Known population range 2117-2250m

Meters Rank <2100 1 2105-2115 3 2115-2250 5 2250-2260 3 >2260 1 U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service

Model Variable Worksheet

Variable Weight (100%) Value Classes Ranks (1-5)

Geology 14% GeologicUnit Kaibab Limestone, undifferentiated (Pk) 5 Kaibab Limestone, Fossil Mountain member (Pkf) 5 Kaibab Limestone, Harrisburg member (Pkh) 4

Slope 14% Degrees 0-10 1 10-29 3 >29 5

Vegetation 16% Association South Rim Intersects PiEd-JuOs-ArSp 5 PiEd-JuOs-CeSp-QuSp 5 ArBi-BoGr 5 QuGa 5 AmUt 5

North Rim Intersects AbCo-PsMe-CaSp 5 PiEd-JuOs-PuSt 5 PiPo-PoFe 5 RoNe 5

Other PJ, w/companions See SMV_VegWorksheet U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service

Model Variable Worksheet, cont.

Distance to PJCON 14% Meters 0-16 5 16-30 4 30-60 3 60-200 2

Soil 14% Soil Type (MUNAME) Lithic Ustic Torriorthents-Udic Haplustolls-Rock outcrop complex, Kaibab, T 5 Yumtheska-Rock outcrop complex, 0 to 2 percent slopes 5 Skos family-Sandia-Rock outcrop complex, 15 to 55 percent slopes 5 Meriwhitica-Rock outcrop complex, 35 to 70 percent slopes 3 Other Soil Types 1

Elevation 14% Meters <2100 1 2105-2115 3 2115-2250 5 2250-2260 3 >2260 1

Aspect 14% Degrees 0-25 4 25-56 5 56-90 4 90-186 4 U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service

Model Builder U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service

Model Run 1 U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service

Model Outcomes ‡ Iterative; Change Weights and Ranks; Test ‡ Model Sensitive to Geology, Elevation, and Aspect – Significantly expand or shrink extent of predicted Suitable Habitat ‡ Areas that consistently model as Highly Suitable over a wide range of model iterations increase confidence ‡ Field Validation is Critical ‡ New population (139 plants) discovered in predicted Highly Suitable Habitat ‡ Five Sites Selected for Initial Reintroduction, beginning in 2014 U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service

Relationship of Model Output to Known Sentry Milk-Vetch Populations U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service

Model Run 1 Sensitivity Analysis

Model Run 2

Changes in Model Weights to slightly emphasize Geology (Run 2) extends predicted Highly Suitable Habitat several kilometers away from the canyon rim and up to 50 kilometers northwest along the rim U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service

Model Run 1 Model Run 2

Model Run 3 Model Run 4 U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service

Newly Discovered Population U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service

Other Considerations ‡ Landforms, esp. Limestone “Spits” – Topographic Position Index ‡ Access –Low Visitor Use – Watering, Monitoring ‡ Expansion Potential ‡ Field Validation, Previous Surveys, and Partner Recommendations U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service

Selected Reintroduction Sites U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service

Greenhouse

U.S. Department of the Interior Grand Canyon National Park National Park Service

Thank You!

Other Modeling Efforts •Northern Leopard Frog •Bighorn Sheep •And?…