Chaos peninsula Plus Warren’s

Ghaith Abdul-Ahad in Yemen p34 2020 vision p24

A week in the life of the world | Australia edition 11 JANUARY 2019 | VOL.200 No.5 | $10.95

SPECIAL REPORT

Ten million people and counting – the world’s next boom towns p10 10 11

By 2035, 15 cities, including London, Tehran and Luanda, will join the likes of Tokyo, Delhi and Shanghai as megacities – those with more than 10 million inhabitants. As part of a Guardian Cities series, we introduce stories from three of these future megacities and look at what changes such vast urban growth may bring

Existing megacities Megacities by 2035

Baghdad Chengdu Nanjing 10.5m and Tehran and Xi’an and Wuhan London Seoul

Ahmedabad and Surat Ho Chi Minh City None of the next 15 megacities are Dar es Salaam Kuala in the Americas 14.5m Lumpur Luanda 14.2m % Downtown Hyderabad Baghdad Patched-up buildings jostle with haphazard new development SEAN SMITH The big story BAGHDAD After an exhausting journey through and the city prepares to join the ranks a focus of Baghdad weekends, is IRAQ Baghdad’s vast and grimy suburbs, the of the world’s megacities. Baghdad is crowded with picnicking families, pastel-coloured blocks of Besmaya in f ux. and wealthier areas such as Jadriya Dream City rise up above the rushes Violence has dominated here for and Karrada are buzzing. Population 2019 just beyond one of the modern gates much of the past 15 years , from the US- But Baghdad remains a profoundly 6.8m marking the edge of the city. led invasion of 2003 and occupation damaged place. And for all its new- The orderliness of these dozens of to the years of sectarian bloodshed. ness, Dream City echoes many of the Population 2035 towers – some lived in, some unf n- That declined until a new resurgence city’s continuing issues. 10.7m ished – is a shock in the otherwise of violence as Islamic State claimed Violence In her sixth-f oor apartment, Baidaa Bright lights, chaotic jumble of low-rise cityscape. territory in towns such as Fallujah and Mohamed, a mother of two, is enthu- Dreams of progress The residential complex is being built Ramadi, just a short drive away. has siastic about many aspects of her new by a South Korean company, Hanwha, The dismantling of Isis’s self-pro- dominated home, which she bought with a cheap and will house 100,000 people once claimed caliphate has prompted a mortgage after moving from the centre in a city carrying it s delayed construction is complete. renewed intake of breath. Bombs occa- here for of the city. With its own power station, fresh scars Dream City – aimed at the belea- sionally explode and tensions remain, much of Dream City has more regular elec- big cities guered middle class – of ers one poten- but Baghdad feels more normal these tricity than most of Baghdad, which tial vision of the future as the popula- days, vibrant even . the past still suf ers regular power cuts. ! By Peter Beaumont tion of Iraq’s capital nears 10 million The Zawra amusement park, long 15 years Her f at is quiet, modern and

The Guardian Weekly 11 January 2019 11 January 2019 The Guardian Weekly 12 The big story 13 Megacities

pleasant, with room for her son to Baghdad’s recent population live for me and my family. Then they DAR ES SALAAM run around. growth has been driven by conf ict sold up and moved to Australia, so I TANZANIA “Here, there’s nonstop electricity as well as other more familiar issues, found this place to live.” and piped gas which means I don’t as people have moved from the peri- Unlike some who have squatted have to worry about heavy cooking pheral cities most af ected by the on the old base, Hussein receives a Population 2019 gas tanks, and continuous tap water,” recent violence. pension for his army service, but it 6m she says. “But what’s most important A drive around the city with Abdel- is nowhere near enough to pay rent. is that the children are safe. I have a wehab Alwehab , a professor of urban Despite Baghdad ranking near the bot- Population 2035 kindergarten just across from us and planning at the university, under- tom of global scales of livability , rents 13.4m it’s free because it’s public.” lines Baghdad’s problems. In one of and house prices are rocketing. Mohamed remains worried, the nicer neighbourhoods he stops to H u s s e i n ’ s n e i g h b o u r A k r a m H a m i d though, not least by the impending show us where eight new dwellings does not even have the benef t of a A city transformed transfer of management of her block have been illegally squeezed on to the pension to fall back on. He works as from the South Koreans who built it to site of a demolished house. Such prac- a day labourer for three days a week by something an Iraqi company. tices are a growing problem in the city. at most. Although he qualif es for a simple: the bus Frankenstein in Baghdad , the A little further on he points out a small amount of social protection, he recent novel by Ahmed Saadawi, con- street appropriated and gated of by a complains that to register he needs to tains a metaphor for the current state government minister for his own use. pay a bribe he cannot af ord. By Nick Van Mead of the city . Like Saadawi’s reanimated “Unfortunately,” he says, “the last 15 The anxiety around Baghdad’s monster Whatsitsname – built from years have really transformed Iraqi trajectory is not only con f ned to those Dusk falls in Dar es Salaam , and for seven years as its population passes nearly all is informal and unplanned. % The slow road the body parts of victims of sectarian cities and Iraqi society, not least in at the bottom. It can also be found at hundreds of thousands of people in 10 million, reaching 13.4 million by T h e D a r t s y s t e m b o a s t s b u s l a n e s Dar es Salaam has bombs – Baghdad has cannibalised terms of ethics and corruption. the new studios of one of the most tell- this African megacity-to-be the daily 2035. A paper by Daniel Hoornweg for separated from other traf c, mostly sprawled far from itself to keep going. “The destitution and despair of ing symbols of the city’s latest attempt chaos and frustration of the journey the Global Cities Institute forecasts the in the middle of the road to reduce its colonial centre Larger dwellings have been divided those years has been very detrimental. to reimagine itself – Radio One Iraq. home begins. city could be home to an incredible stoppages. Ticket payment and con- NICK J/GETTY and subdivided by families to deal Whatever the high hopes after the Set up by 32-year-old IT entre- People cram themselves into 73.7 million people by 2100. trol takes place at stations rather than with the growing housing crisis, 2003 invasion, they did not materi- preneur Ehab Attrachi , the station’s dalla dalla minibuses, some even In 2018, four out of f ve of its people on board, while step-free stations largely illegally. Squatter neighbour- alise. Take transport. The approach playlist of western music has drawn climbing through the windows once lived in single-storey informal settle- and boarding mean the entire route hoods have taken over old army bases to transport infrastructure here is suspicion from some conservatives, the entrance is blocked. Others hang ments on the sprawling fringes, where is accessible to people in wheelchairs from the Saddam Hussein era, even the basically nothing but patching up while becoming the soundscape for out of the doors, but the Kilwa Road the journey to and from the centre or with buggies. old nuclear centre in Diyala. Districts p r o b l e m s .” many of the younger generation. heading south towards Mbagala slum regularly takes more than two hours. The average journey time from the 7 Future vision once designed as utopian low-income If state intervention once de f ned “We started in 2015 when people is blocked and these diesel-belchers It can be longer when rain turns dirt centre to the terminus at Kimara has Residents in housing projects have been built over. Baghdad’s rapid development, these were busy with problems in Iraq,” are going nowhere fast. roads to mud. been slashed from two hours each Dream City The reality is that 15 years of conf ict days, argues Alwehab, it is notable in Attrachi says. “The message was that On Bagamoyo Road to the wealthier But Dar es Salaam is pinning its way to just 45 minutes, according to SEAN SMITH has unstitched Baghdad. its absence. Instead, privatised inter- we are going to stay after we get rid of areas in the north, solo drivers in hopes on a solution that could of er a sustainable transport group the ITDP. People ests encroach on all areas of the urban Isis. We wanted to see things get better. blacked-out 4x4s sit stationary too dif erent model for Africa’s mega cities, That adds up to a saving of around 50 environment, not least in the city’s “We wanted to ref ect a curiosity – captive customers for the hawkers giving them an alternative to a future hours a month for the average bus cram into chronic housing crisis. in other cultures – to be a bridge after who trudge up and down the traf c in thrall to the private car. Unlike many passenger making the full trip. The minibuses, The stresses on the city from its Iraq has been isolated for so long … to jams selling charging cables and garish cities on the continent, Dar es Salaam ITDP awarded the system Africa’s some even growing population is nowhere make a connection. I think Iraq today wall clocks, carved wooden animals isn’t trying to build a metro. It has cho- only “gold standard” bus rapid tran- more evident than in the city’s illegal is very dif erent to the Iraq of 10 years and plastic skipping ropes. Their metal sen a less sexy but cheaper and more sit (BRT) rating . climbing squatter neighbourhoods. ago. People are starting to believe in and glass boxes are expensive and air- achievable route: the bus. “The new buses are much, much through J a s s i m H u s s e i n l i v e s o n t h e v a s t , being more open-minded.” conditioned, but they’re still boxes. Dar es Salaam’s reliance on four better,” says Paulas George, a young IT abandoned al-Rashid military base. Even so, Attrachi and his assistant So far, so normal for a sprawling arterial roads – two lanes each way for worker waiting at Manzes e station. He windows The 66-year-old, a former prisoner Ahmed al-Haddad admit that the city megalopolis of 6 million with virtually the most part, one lane in places – is takes the bus every day and it has cut of war in the Iran-Iraq conf ict, has remains a tough place to live. “Every- no public transport and only eight a legacy of the colonial government his journey time by two-thirds. He says extended part of a tiny concrete bar- thing here’s a mess and I don’t think lanes of major road heading to and that planned the city at the start of it is not perfect though, com plaining racks building into a simple compound the government is capable of doing from the centre. the 20th century for a population of drivers sometimes turn of the air con- in the shadow of the Dora expressway. anything about it,” says Haddad. “It Dar es Salaam, the de facto capital of 35,000. Most of the growth is made ditioning to save fuel. He has planted cacti for decoration. is impossible to live here.” Tanzania, is one of the fastest- growing up of young people arriving from “Much of the city will have access to “I’ve been living here for 10 years,” And yet at least 6.8 million people cities in Africa. Its population has the countryside to f nd work, and as a world-class transport system within he says. “I live here on my own. I used and counting are doing just that. increased eight fold since 1980 and the population has exploded Dar es the space of a few years,” says Chris to work as a guard at a factory not far swells by half a million people every Salaam has grown around those four Kost, the ITDP’s Africa director. All PETER BEAUMONT IS SENIOR REPORTER away that was owned by a Christian year. The latest UN projections anti- highways. Nearly all the expansion phases are being planned to gold ON THE GUARDIAN’S GLOBAL ! family. They gave me somewhere to DEVELOPMENT DESK cipate it will become a megacity within is happening on the periphery, and standards and, once complete, a

Luanda Hyderabad Dar es Salaam Ho Chi Minh City Nanjing Ahmedabad Chengdu Surat Baghdad Tehran 15 15 15 15 15 14.5m 14.2m 13.4m 12.2m 11.5m 11.3m 11.2m 10.8m 10.7m 10.6m Growth spurt The 15 cities 10 10 10 10 10 which will have 5 5 5 5 5 more than 10m 0 0 0 0 0 1950 2035 1950 2035 1950 2035 1950 2035 1950 2035 1950 2035 1950 2035 1950 2035 1950 2035 1950 2035

The Guardian Weekly 11 January 2019 11 January 2019 The Guardian Weekly 14 The big story Megacities third of city residents will be within a XI’AN 10-minute walk of the BRT network. CHINA The ITDP bemoans Africa’s obses- sion with metros. Lagos in Nigeria – the largest city in the world without a Population 2019 mass transit system – has been trying 6.2m to build a metro since the 1980s. In the latest of many incarnations, Population 2035 the project was supposed to begin 10.4m operations in 2012 at a cost of $2.4bn. Six years after the supposed start date, construction is “nowhere near A Muslim enclave complete ”, says Kost. A BRT line is also planned. surrounded by Abidjan, the economic capital of booming growth Ivory Coast, began construction of a metro last year. The French-f nanced and built line is projected to carry By Xiaomei Chen Muslim region of Xinjiang , more than 500,000 passengers a day at a cost of 1,500km to the north-west. $1.7bn. Dar es Salaam’s bus system, ! The good life T h e s t r e e t s o f X i ’ a n ’ s M u s l i m q u a r - “You can’t be too careful,” says one by contrast, has capacity for 400,000 A food stall in the ter are bustling. Tourists from all Chinese Muslim Hui who does not people and cost less than a 10th of that Muslim quarter over the world throng the small stalls want to be named in the international – about $150m. XIAOMEI CHEN and restaurants for delicacies such as media. “You know the situation in Xin- So why are these cities choosing the yangrou paomo lamb stew, roujiamo jiang? We don’t want that in Xi’an!” metro over the bus? Karol Zemek, the lamb burgers, persimmon cakes and During Mao’s Cultural Revolution editor of Metro Report International, “smoked ice-cream” – a bowl of puf ed in the 1960s, religious practices and says trains can carry far more passen- cereal dipped in liquid nitrogen. rituals were banned, and mosques gers than buses, have higher speeds, There has been a Muslim commu- were repurposed as factories, admin- reduce emissions – and deliver a status nity in the capital of Shaanxi province istration of ces or community centres. boost buses cannot match. “Metro is – at the eastern end of the old Silk Road Many here credit the economic the top end of mass transit,” he says. in central China – since the seventh liberalisation under Deng Xiaoping in “If you want to carry large numbers of century. During the Tang dynasty, the 1980s with the Muslim quarter’s people you cannot beat it, and moving when the city was called Chang’an, resurgence. Many Hui people I talk to large numbers of people around the travelling Muslim merchants made speak of cleaner streets, renovated city is crucial for economic growth.” it their home. Many married Chinese houses and better business oppor- Kost, though, sees it more as polit- Han women, and their offspring tunities. Recently, though, change is ical expediency. “Because metro became known as Hui, now one of making people nervous. The old bilin- systems don’t take up road space and China’s 56 ethnic groups. gual signs in Arabic and Chinese at the don’t take away from cars then they are In 2019, as the population of the entrances to the Muslim quarter have politically easier,” he says. “Politicians wider city nears the 10 million mark been replaced with new ones that only see it as a big project with no sacrif ces. that would def ne it as a “megacity”, feature Chinese characters. But what if it never gets built? What if the Muslim population is estimated at Aisha Ma is selling mmahua, a what is built is too expensive and so around 65,000. Most live and work in kind of fried dough twist. She warns limited in size it leaves the majority the Muslim quarter in the city centre. me against negative rumours about of city residents no better of ? Life is good here. Restaurants Muslims. “You shouldn’t believe “It can be tempting for those in ‘You and stalls boast of being featured on them,” she says. “Here in China, we power, but is it really addressing the know the China Central Television, the state Hui people are peaceful. Look around, needs of people of the city? Bus rapid situation in b r o a d c a s t e r . life has never been better.” transit has been transformational for B e h i n d t h e s t o r y o f b o o m i n g b u s i - She pauses. “Country comes f rst, Dar es Salaam. For millions of people Xinjiang? ness lurks an old fear – the precarious then family,” she adds – a communist in African cities, this is their best hope We don’t situation of being Muslim in China, propaganda slogan that has been used of ever being connected.” want that especially given the reports of anti- in songs and speeches for decades. NICK VAN MEAD IS DEPUTY EDITOR OF terror crackdowns and political XIAOMEI CHEN WRITES FOR THE GUARDIAN CITIES in Xi’an!’ re-education camps in the majority- GUARDIAN

London Kuala Lumpur Xi'an Seoul Wuhan Follow the Mega 15 15 15 10.5m 10.4m 10.4m 10.3m 10m Cities project, coverering all 10 10 10 15 future mega cities at 5 5 5 theguardian.

0 0 0 com/cities 1950 2035 1950 2035 1950 2035 1950 2035 1950 2035

The Guardian Weekly 11 January 2019 15 In-depth reporting and analysis

ITALY Can Venice w i t h s t a n d t h e tourist storm? Page 19 &

CHINA

t epitomises China’s position for growth, the country’s mix of free- ▲ The Shanghai in the global economy that a market policies and central planning composite, As US tariff s seismic warning about its health faces one of its sternest tests. China’s major last week came from a US com- China’s central bank said last Friday share average, bite, a chill I pany: Apple. The iPhone giant cut sales it was cutting the amount of cash that ended 2018 forecasts, citing the unforeseen “mag- banks have to hold as reserves for the almost 25% nitude” of the economic slowdown in f fth time in a year, freeing up $116bn down on the spreads China – a vital growth market. At the for new lending, as it tried to head of previous year same time the head of Baidu, China’s a sharp economic slowdown. HAO QUNYING/GETTY around biggest search engine, warned his This week US negotiators travelled employees that “winter is coming” in to Beijing for a crucial round of talks the world’s second-largest economy. with their Chinese counterparts in the world If China is indeed entering an an attempt to break the deadlock in a economic winter, then the chill will year-long dispute over tarif s. Global spread around the globe. Forty years markets, worried about the impact on By Phillip Inman and Lily Kuo after communist China opened its growth, have seen a jump in vola tility Continued ! BEIJING doors to trade with the west in a dash over recent months, with investors 16 Spotlight A SLEEPING GIANT AWAKENS 17 Finance The 40-year rise of China as a major economic player

said Changqiu. “ The trade war is bad 1978 2011 to undermine consumer conf dence for us and it impacts not only us, but First economic reforms introduced China becomes world’s and slow growth, to the extent that our customers. We’re very worried,” by Deng Xiaoping second-biggest economy some government advisers fear there he said. US 2.3 (GDP, $tn) US 15.1 (GDP, $tn) could be social and political unrest . The slowdown is also being felt Yu Yongding, a former member of in China’s hinterland . In Chengdu, Japan 1 China 7.3 the central bank’s monetary policy the largest city in the south-western committee, who has advised poli- province of Sichuan , blocks of shops in Germany 0.7 Japan 5.9 cymakers for years, was quoted by the new business district of Chengdu France 0.5 Germany 3.6 the China Business News as saying: High Tech Zone have been empty for “China’s experiences in the past 40 months. A property manager said the UK 0.3 France 2.8 years have told us that all the problems company that owns them had been will worsen if we can’t maintain eco- trying to sell them quickly because it China 0.1 Brazil 2.5 nomic growth rate at a certain level. needed the money. “Without a certain level of eco- In Wuhouci, a Tibetan neighbour- 1989 2018 nomic growth speed, structural hood popular with tourists, streets Shanghai stock market reopens Xi Jinping pledges to make economy adjustments or economic system for frst time in 40 years more open, lowering trade tarifs were mostly empty over the new year, reform will be baseless,” said Yu, a two-day national holiday in China. US 5.4 (GDP, $tn) US 20.4 (GDP, $tn) who is a senior research fellow at the A shop owner selling Buddhist art and Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. iconography said business had been Japan 2.9 China 14.1 Diana Choyleva, a longtime China hard over the past year. “No one has watcher and head of consultancy money to buy anything,” he said. Germany 1.4 Japan 5.2 Enodo Economics, believes that France 1 Germany 4.2 modern China is in the midst of its he impact of the US tarif s most difficult test yet. “In my 20 is expected to be felt more Italy 0.9 UK 2.9 years of covering China’s economy keenly now that big shop- and markets, this is the most worried ping seasons – Black Friday, China 0.3 France 2.9 I’ve ever been about the party’s ability T Christmas and China’s Singles’ Day on to keep the show on the road.” 11 November – have passed . China’s 2001 Last week the central bank changed China joins World Trade Organisation small and medium-sized manufactur- the def nition of a small business to ing companies, traditionally the back- US 10.1 (GDP, $tn) allow more f rms to benef t from low bone of the economy, are bearing the Japan 4.1 borrowing rates. Economists estimate brunt, according to Ye Tan, an inde- that this will result in the release of pendent economist based in Shang- Germany 1.9 $210bn into the economy in the form hai. “Economic f gures have already of cheap loans. started to ref ect the downturn but we UK 1.4 Choyleva said the various stimulus cannot tell exactly how awful it is,” Ye policies will give the f rst half of the said. “For some technology companies France 1.3 year a boost before growth falls back or larger companies that have bargain- China 1.3 again. She has told her clients to sell ing power, the impact is not so big.” shares in Chinese companies when- Underscoring Beijing’s weak posi- ever the local market rises because tion, President Xi Jinping backtracked the boost to values will be short-lived. oscillating between exuberant opti- “China’s economy was already medical equipment company, had on a ban on imports of US soya beans ▼ Threatened ▲ Chinese leader But while reports of Chinese mism and despondency . set to slow in 2019, but the trade dis- dismissed more than 200 employees, in the summer and last month cut 25% US tariffs on Deng Xiaoping, e x p o r t e r s s u f ering might cheer the US Despite a near 20% fall in the US pute has added to it another set of all recent graduates. The company an extra tarif on car imports. These car imports would who brought negotiating team, they don’t hold all stock market between October and intense pressures,” said Shehzad Qazi, responded by saying that it “needed concessions preceded Trump’s agree- hit China hard in free-market the cards. Apple and General Motors December, some investors believe managing director of China Beige Book staf with more experience”. ment to suspend for 90 days the YANG SHIYAO/XINHUA reforms GETTY have complained that the tarif war is there are reasons for hope. They think International, an analysis f rm that Companies in Guangdong have almost $300bn of further tari f s he had hurting their businesses too, as China Beijing might blink f rst because the specialises in the Chinese economy. been letting workers of early for the planned to impose this month – and is a vital market . The White House is Chinese have much to lose by main- China’s exporting regions in the Chinese new year break, known as start talks. But Xi has more than just also waking up to the prospect of a taining their objections to Donald south have felt the impact most. Spring Festival, which usually last sev- his battle with the US to contend with. slowing economy now that the ef ects Trump’s demands over trade imbal- “While it would be a mistake to attrib- eral weeks. J anus, an electronics man- Since the 2008 f nancial crisis China’s of tax cuts in 2017 are waning. Trump ances, market access and alleged ute this primarily to the trade war, the ufacturer in Dongguan, let workers of large state-owned enterprises, most must consider the electoral benef ts abuses of intellectual property. severe deterioration in foreign orders, from 1 December until 30 April. of which are involved in heavy manu- of a long battle with China against the Beijing has played down the impact especially in the export-sensitive Wang Changqiu, the manager of facturing or energy production, have negative impact on growth. As Apple of extra tarif s on around $254bn of Guangdong region, stands out as a Tuke, a sports equipment factory in only kept going with heavy borrowing. indicated last week, tough times could ▲ A trader waits Chinese imports into the US. But stark example of the pain the tarif war Guangzhou , said the f rm had started In an attempt to rein in the most lie ahead for everyone. Observer for customers at the evidence from businesses and is already causing. If tarif s escalate to feel the impact of the trade war. indebted f rms and foster a move PHILLIP INMAN IS THE OBSERVER’S his market stall commentators inside China is clear: further after 1 March, the added pres- Tuke exports almost all its products away from manufacturing, in 2017 ECONOMICS EDITOR. LILY KUO IS in Shenyang in the dispute is hurting. And the US sure on the Chinese economy will and just under half go to the US. The Beijing imposed tighter borrow- BEIJING BUREAU CHIEF. WANG XUEYING China’s north- president’s threat to impose tarif s prove excruciating,” Qazi said. f rm has already been hit by the weak- ing restrictions. These were also ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO THIS REPORT eastern Liaon on almost $300bn of extra imports In December local media in the ening yuan, which has cut into slim designed to dampen a property mar- province in March, including a 25% charge on manufacturing hub of Shenzhen prof t margins. Tuke had been trying ket that had led to steep price rises in What the slump means for Africa GETTY imported cars, would be catastrophic. reported that Mindrey Medical, a to reduce its reliance on the US market, the big cities. However, they served Analysis, page 18 =

The Guardian Weekly 11 January 2019 11 January 2019 The Guardian Weekly 18 Spotlight Finance

ANALYSIS between Asia, Europe and Africa, China’s two main development CHINA with China aiming to reap bene f ts banks reached $675bn at the end of from increasing global trade. 2016 – more than twice the size of Mounting tensions between loans from the World Bank , which China and the US , however, have has a remit to tackle poverty in the End of the road acted as a handbrake on world trade. developing world – with African The International Monetary Fund development a focus of the forecasts Chinese growth will slow Chinese institutions.

Fears grow to 6.2% this year from about 6.6% in More than four-f fths of 2018, due to escalations in the trade the amount China spends on in Africa that dispute that erupted last year. There construction overseas goes to are also rising fears over the rapid low- or middle-income economies. growth of debt in China used to fuel According to Unctad , China holds fl ood of Beijing its expansion over the past decade . the fourth-largest stock of foreign With Chinese investment in direct investment in Africa at $40bn, funds will ebb some African nations worth more behind the US at $57bn, the UK at than some of their own domestic $55bn, and France at $49bn. spending, analysts fear the prospect The investments run from By Richard Partington of weaker investment and fading aid projects to infrastructure, demand for commodity exports. including help to upgrade more than Concerns over Chinese Figures from the United Nations’ 29,000 km of highways, 1,900km of growth could spell development agency, Unctad, show railways, and raising ports capacity problems for Africa that weakness in global commodity by about 85m tonnes per year. China and the developing prices in 2014 and 2015 caused According to Deloitte, China is world. Beijing funded an overseas foreign direct investment f ows into the most visible single-country has been investment boom as it strove to Africa to fall from $55bn in 2015 to funder and builder of infrastructure slowing become the world’s second-largest $42bn in 2017, showing how Africa projects in Africa, having spent economic superpower , while buying might be hit by a Chinese slowdown. about $11.5bn a year on average down vast amounts of natural resources Richard Kozul-Wright, director since 2012 – about a third of all gradually produced by emerging nations. of the division for globalisation and African government spending, The scale of the expansion development strategies at Unctad, worth an average $30.1bn. for the forms part of China’s multibillion- said: “China has been slowing down Despite the risks facing dollar “ Belt and Road” initiative , gradually for the last two or three developing nations from China’s past few a state-backed campaign to years, coinciding with continued slowdown, experts sa y Beijing years promote its inf uence around the expansion abroad. Whether the is likely to remain signif cantly world, while providing stimulus current shocks linked to trade inf uential. Of cials committed for its own slowing economy. The and growing concerns about debt late last year to spending $60bn in transcontinental development will be signif cantly worse, I guess Africa over the next three years, project launched by China’s we are not sure yet. That’s a big although there are fears the project president, Xi Jinping, in 2013 aims uncertainty.” may saddle developing countries to improve infrastructure links The overseas lending from with too much debt just as the world economy begins to falter. Razia Kahn, chief economist for Africa and the Middle East at Standard Chartered, said it “would have to be a very severe slump” to af ect Africa. The consensus forecast for China’s GDP growth is 6.2%: “that is still a very healthy pace of growth.” Kozul-Wright at Unctad said: “China’s weight in the global economy is going to continue to grow and its footprint will continue to grow. Maybe not in the same way as the last 20 years. But the idea that Trump can put the genie back in the ! China financed bottle seems rather naive.” a new railway in Observer Kenya from Nai- robi to Mombasa RICHARD PARTINGTON IS THE GUARDIAN AND OBSERVER’S THOMAS MUKROYA/ ECONOMICS CORRESPONDENT REUTERS

The Guardian Weekly 11 January 2019 34

The War in Yemen A SPECIAL REPORT BY GHAITH ABDUL-AHAD A state of chaos For nearly fi ve years Yemen has been battered by a bloody civil war between the Iran-backed Houthis and its Saudi-backed former government. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates is using the confl ict to project power beyond its borders

! A member of the UAE-backed Security Belt forces stands at the frontline that separates south Yemen from the north GHAITH ABDUL-AHAD The Guardian Weekly 11 January 2019 36 A state of chaos 37

by a combination of local militias, southern separatists, gov- ernment forces and UAE and Saudi troops. Askar expanded his interests beyond jihad, imposing a protection racket on the port and extorting a commission from every shipment that came through. The government issued a series of arrest warrants, but he weathered them all. He soon befriended the Emirati of cers who had arrived as part of the forces that took over the city – and he spent long stints in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, making connections. He was rewarded for his friendship with a lucrative transportation contract, and has since moved into the prof table business of looting large swaths of farmland around Aden. Last summer I met Askar as he entertained friends on his Five years ago, farm north of Aden. The farm was lush, green and quiet – worlds away from the crowded, suf ocating streets of Aden. With the bonhomie of a bandit, he joked and told stories Ayman Askar from his last trip abroad. He and a friend had rented three Mercedes vans with their drivers, to ferry them and their was in a prison wives and children around the resorts of Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt, taking them to water parks, beaches and seafood restaurants. in south Yemen , “It was a week from heaven,” Askar told the friends serving a life sentence for murder. Now he is a wealthy and gathered around him. “The children were very happy, and important man whose friendships cut across the many one could forget about all the troubles of war.” lines of the fragmented civil war that has destroyed th e Ayman Askar is just one of the people who have done country. Askar has recently been named the chief of secu- well from the war in Yemen – a conf ict the UN has called the rity for a large district in the southern port city of Aden – world’s worst humanitarian crisis, with at least 14 million appointed by the government of Yemen, on whose behalf people now estimated to be at risk of starvation. In Decem- Saudi Arabia has been bombing the country for three-and- ber , UN-sponsored peace talks in Sweden produced a tem- a-half years . But Askar is also a friend and ally of the United porary ceasef re between the Houthis and pro-government Arab Emirates – the most aggressive partner in the Saudi-led forces in the Red Sea port of Hodeidah, a crucial gateway coalition f ghting to restore the government of president for humanitarian aid into the country. The Houthis have Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, who was forced from of ce by controlled the city since 2015, but it has been under assault the Houthi rebellion in 2015. for months by Saudi-UAE coalition forces, leading to warn- The Saudis have attracted the bulk of the world’s dis- ings of an even worse humanitarian catastrophe. pleasure for their bloody intervention in Yemen, but the If the fragile ceasef re holds, both sides will be required UAE plays a more forceful role on the ground – and its allies to withdraw their troops from the port. A successful truce in the south, including local militias, Salaf f ghters and in Hodeideh could pave the way for progress at the next south Yemen separatists who want to break away from round of talks, scheduled for later this month. But the war and rivalries, with each of its principal members following straggle behind scraggy donkeys pushing wooden ploughs Hadi’s government, have been known to f ght against the is not yet over. a separate agenda and plotting against the others. In Taiz, a while their children become f ghters and militiamen. Saudis’ own proxies in the country. In fact, it is no longer even a single war. It began as a city in central Yemen that has been besieged and shelled by The Emiratis appear to be the only alliance members with Today Askar is allied with the government of Yemen and conf ict with two clear antagonists – the Saudi-led coalition the Houthis for more than three years, the f ghters on the a clear strategy. They are using private armies that they have the UAE, but not long ago he was a member of al-Qaida, allied with the government versus the Houthi militia coalition side are split into more than two dozen separate created, trained and funded in a bid to crush both jihadi the enemy of both. Thuggish and heavy-set, with a bull- supported by Iran. But the force and funding of outside military factions – including local militias backed and spon- militancy and Islamist political parties such as al-Islah. like head on strong, wide shoulders, he jostled his way up intervention – especially from the UAE – has helped to frag- sored by the UAE, as well as al-Qaida and other jihadis. Some Across the southern coast – where the UAE is allied with the the power hierarchy of prison life: he ran a grocery store ment the war into multiple conf icts and local skirmishes f ghters switch sides according to who is of ering funds. separatist Southern Movement, which is opposed to both in the prison yard and a PlayStation lounge in one of the that will not necessarily be ended by any peace agreement. Two years ago, when a tribal Sunni sheikh from Bayda the Houthis and the Hadi government – the Emiratis have cells, and befriended the strongest gang in the prison – a Yemen is now a patchwork of heavily armed f efdoms and – on the traditional fault line between the Zaidi north and built a series of military camps and bases, and established group of al-Qaida inmates. He prayed with them, attended chaotic areas, where commanders, war prof teers and a the southern Sunni lands – went to seek assistance from the what is essentially a parallel state, with its own security their classes, grew his beard and started dressing like them, thousand bandit kings, like Ayman Askar, thrive. UAE in his battle against the Houthis, an Emirati general services who are not accountable to the Yemeni govern- although his friends say he never joined the organisation There is a regional war between the north and the south told him that the Houthi rebels “are no longer our priorities ment . Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch properly because he is too opportunistic to pledge alle- – which were separate and often warring states before 1990. or biggest enemy”. The sheikh was told that if he wanted have revealed the existence of a network of secret prisons giance to a single cause. There is a sectarian conf ict between Zaidi Shias, such as weapons from the UAE, he also had to f ght Islamic State operated by the UAE and its proxy forces, who are accused of When Houthi f ghters from north Yemen, backed by the Houthis , and Sunni Salaf s . Beyond these major fault (Isis), al-Qaida and al-Islah – an Islamist political party that disappearing and torturing al-Islah members, anti-Houthi Iran , invaded the south and toppled the government in lines are many smaller conf icts, inf amed and aggravated plays a dominant role in the very same government the UAE f ghters from rival factions, and even activists and critics of the capital, Sana’a – forcing Hadi to f ee south to Aden, by the money and weapons supplied by outside forces to ! Under siege has ostensibly sent troops to Yemen to defend. the Saudi-UAE coalition. Yemeni ministers have taken to and then abroad to Saudi Arabia – Askar was still in jail. anyone seen to advance their agenda. Pro-government Now there are three dif erent forces f ghting across the referring to the Emiratis as an “occupation force”. But in the chaos that followed, al-Qaida f ghters stormed The government of Yemen – with scores of ministers and soldiers guard sheikh’s territory, each supported by one or even two of the The Saudis’ f oundering military strategy has largely the prison and freed its inmates. Askar joined the resist- deputy ministers – is dysfunctional and corrupt, and since the Al Jamaliya main factions in the coalition: the UAE, the Saudis and the involved relentless bombing of civilians. Their blockade ance and fought against the Houthi invaders alongside 2015 has been in exile in a Saudi hotel compound. It has neighbourhood of government of Yemen. Each army in this region of ragged of Yemen’s ports has pushed millions of people to the his jihadi friends, distinguishing himself as a ruthless an army of more than 200,000 troops, although many of Taiz governorate, hills and black volcanic stones has received millions of edge of starvation. In the last couple of years they have f eld commander and dividing his time equally between them haven’t been paid, or exist as ghost soldiers – names in south-western dollars ’ worth of military equipment, trucks and salaries been reduced to playing the role of a peacemaker f ghting and looting. on a list, whose salaries are siphoned of by their of cers. Yemen for the f ghters. Meanwhile, farmers in these same lands between their two allies, the UAE and the govern- ! A few months later, the Houthis were driven out of Aden The Saudi-led coalition itself is riddled with conf icts ANADOLU AGENCY can no longer af ord to buy petrol for their tractors; they ment of Yemen.

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The Gulf 39

Battle lines Qatar Dubai The current state Gulf of Oman “We had hoped that the Saudis would intervene to Abu stop the folly of the Emiratis, but they are lost,” a Yemeni of play in Yemen Dhabi commander based in Aden said to me last summer . “The war is not going well for them, and they can’t be bothered United Arab Emirates Muscat with what’s happening in the south, so they have handed that f le to the Emiratis.” What the Emiratis have achieved in Yemen – creating private armies, propping up secessionists in the south and Hadi-led government and allies conspiring to destroy the political system, while controlling (Saudi Arabia, UAE and others) strategic waterways in the Arabian and Red seas – shows Various militias, al-Qaida how a small and very ambitious nation projects its power Houthi rebels Oman in the region, and the world.

Saudi Arabia The devastating civil war that began in 2015 100 km Former border between 100 miles was years in the making, North Yemen (left of line) but the biggest spark was lit around 2011, amid the exuber- One day after he turned up in Riyadh, a Saudi-led coalition ! Vicious war and South Yemen ance of the Arab spring, when a popular protest movement that included the armies of the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Sudan Identifying a drove former president Ali Abdullah Saleh from power. and Egypt, with the support of the US, UK and France, began casualty of the Saleh had ruled through an intricate system of corruption bombing Sana’a on behalf of the exiled Yemeni government. fighting at the Salalah and patronage for three decades, but unlike other deposed The Houthis forced Hadi out, but they never managed Hodeidah, which Saada Arab dictators he did not go to prison or f ee the country. to fully occupy Aden. Almost overnight, the city was has been under Instead, a delicately negotiated settlement, brokered by f lled with local men wielding guns along with their Houthi control Yemen the UN and Yemen’s Gulf neighbours, allowed him to step “commanders” – who gathered in schools, government since 2015 Red Sea aside and avoid prosecution while Hadi, his vice-president, buildings and squares. There was no structure; friends, ANDREW RENNEISEN/ took over. But while representatives of the country’s various activists, neighbours or relatives coalesced around a char- GETTY Sana’a factions debated a political transition in the capital, in the ismatic neighbourhood leader, f nancier or thug. Some north and the south some of these same tribes and parties were Salaf s, some southern separatists, some al-Qa ida, Hodeidah were f ghting to impose their will on the ground, tearing some just unemployed youth. Often there were no clear Mukalla the country apart and thrusting it toward another civil war. lines separating these groups. A commander could be both Of these many feuding powers, the Houthis, or Ansar a southern separatist and a Salaf , and many of the young Taiz Allah , as they called themselves, were the most organised people who joined the jihadi groups did so not out of ide- and ideologically driven. They believed they had a divine ology but hatred of the Houthis and admiration for the mission. Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi , the movement’s jihadis’ discipline and plentiful supplies of weapons. They founder, was a Zaidi religious leader who attacked the cor- were separated by a thousand disagreements and united Aden ruption of the Saleh regime and preached a millenarian by one thing: f ghting the Houthis. Gulf of Aden Arabian Sea Djibouti melange of anti-western ideology and Islamic revivalism. Not all the resistance factions were so disorganised. The (The Zaidis, a Shia sect largely located in Yemen, represent Salaf s, who set up their base in a football stadium, were about a third of the country’s population, but their brand of dedicated, zealous and disciplined, and soon emerged as Shi’ism is very dif erent from that practised in Iran and Iraq.) the most powerful element of the anti-Houthi resistance. In late 2014, the Houthis marched down from the north “The Salaf s had taken the decision to f ght the Houthis even and took over the capital, Sana’a – with the aid of army units before they entered Aden,” one Salaf sheikh, who still loyal to Saleh. After Hadi f ed south to Aden in early commanded his own force, told me a few months ! EthiopiaSeptember Somalia 2014 June 2015 In late 2014, the Aid agencies say 2015, the Houthis stormed the city and sent him into exile. ago. “For us the war was to defend the Sunni nature Houthis march south that 20m Yemenis, February 2012 and take over the nearly 80% of the Nov 2018 Post-Arab Spring capital, Sana’a – with population, are in A United Nations protests drive Ali the aid of soldiers still urgent need of food, Sept 2017 resolution calling Abdullah Saleh loyal to Saleh. After water and medical May 2017 A UN report reveals Nov 2018 for a ceasefire and an escalation in the resumption from power. A deal Hadi flees south to aid, in a humanitarian Jan 2016 A massive cholera Dec 2017 Sept 2018 A Save the Children Dec 2018 brokered by the UN The Saudi-led hostilities in the of humanitarian Aden in March 2015, disaster that they outbreak sees more Houthi rebels kill Saudi Arabia responds report says than an Yemen’s warring and Yemen’s Gulf coalition declares end than 2,000 suspected country, with more estimated 85,000 deliveries in Yemen the Houthis storm say has been former president to the breakdown parties agree to an neighbours, allows the city and send him dramatically to two-week old truce cases reported daily, airstrikes in the first children under the is been stalled by the Saleh as he travels of UN peace talks immediate ceasefire him to step aside and into exile. A Saudi- worsened by a naval with the Houthis as a Oct 2016 medical supplies are half of this year than age of five have US and other security avoid prosecution led coalition beg ins blockade imposed UN report uncovers After a 72-hour running low and in in all of 2016. It with other top party by relaunching its starved to death over council members in Hodeidah, at Timeline while Abdrabbuh bombing Sana’a on by the Arab coalition “widespread and ceasefire to allow aid some hospitals beds calls the siutation an leaders from Sana’a offensive to capture the last three years after a lobbying the end of a week Mansur Hadi, his vice- behalf of the exiled with US and British systematic” attacks deliveries, Saudi-led are shared by up to six “entirely manmade to his hometown of the crucial port city of as a result of Yemen’s campaign by Saudi of peace talks in of a tragedy president, takes over. government. backing. on civilian targets. airstrikes resume. children. catastrophe”. Sanhan. Hodeidah. civil war. Arabia and the UAE. Sweden.

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Yemen is facing a ‘catastrophic’ food crisis Aid agencies respond to the crisis Yemen civil war has left children with ‘severe needs’ Yemen on brink of ‘worst famine in 100 years’ The Guardian Weekly 11 January 2019 caused by violence, May 2015 UN aid humanitarian chief, Oct 2016 UN humanitarian coordinator, Oct 2018 11 January 2019 The Guardian Weekly Source: UN, FEWS Net Saada 40 A state of chaos 41 Yemen of society. We fought the Houthis as a religious force. Eve- By the end of 2015, the war against the Houthis had Sana’a ryone fought under our command: religious factions, become bogged down by the rivalries among the alliance 18 million Yemenis - 60% of the southerners, street thugs and even al-Qaida. Sometimes members, the proliferation of militias controlling areas of population - are food insecure the kids would stop f ghting if they didn’t have internet the country, and the expansion of al-Qaida in the south. Hodeidah Mukalla and they couldn’t check their Facebook.” For sectarian The dreams of the people of Aden that their poor city would and ideological reasons, the Salaf s became the conduit of f ourish with the help of their rich Emirati brethren had sub- Acute food insecurity phase Taiz weapons and money sent by the Arab coalition, empower- sided into resentment and frustrations. The Salaf sheikh Stressed ing them further. was convinced that something had to be done. Crisis The war had combined the secessionist zeal for south Like many of the Yemeni commanders, the sheikh had Emergency Yemen independence with Salaf and jihadi anti-Shia become a regular visitor to the UAE, enjoying the hospi- sectarianism. It was an explosive mix, and it swept over tality of his new patrons and taking respite from the dete- Aden the city. Any northerner was a suspect, and hundreds were riorating situation in Aden. During one of his visits to Abu Deadly peninsula detained in the stadium, accused of being Houthi agents. Dhabi, he said, he had met an elderly professor and advis er In December 2015, two mass graves were excavated nearby. to Mohammad bin Zayed, the UAE crown prince and the A brutal confl ict head of its armed forces. The professor had coined a new in numbers phrase, “the Gulf cation of the Arabs”, which was becoming popular among the ruling elite in Abu Dhabi. For the rest The Houthi occupation of the Arab world to succeed, according to the professor, they needed to follow the model of the Gulf monarchies – of Aden only lasted forgoing democracy and popular representation in return 60,000 for providing f nancial prosperity and security. The Salaf people, at least, have been for four months. sheikh was an instant convert. killed since the conf ict began After they were driven out, the separatists of the Southern One night in Abu Dhabi, not long after meeting the ! Starvation in March 2015 Movement had high hopes. For the f rst time since 1994 – p r o f e s s o r , t h e s h e i k h s a t d o wn in his lavish hotel room A mother holds when the north easily crushed the southern army to end a and began to write a long letter to his Emirati allies: a road her severely bid for secession – the city was free of any northern control. map for saving the south of Yemen and the Saudi-led malnourished All the security forces were in the hands of southerners, intervention. After praising Allah, the brave Emirati soldiers child at a 14m and they had weapons and a strong ally, the UAE, which and their wise commander Mohammed bin Zayed, he began hospital in Aden, Yemenis face starvation. had taken control of the southern front. to list the problems threatening the Emirati adventure southern Yemen Around 22 million are in need of With the Emiratis as their backers, the people of Aden in Yemen. GILES CLARKE/GETTY humanitarian assistance believed their city would become the next Dubai, with elec- In a 16-point manifesto, titled the Road Map to Saving tricity, water and jobs. The enthusiastic governor, a former Aden, he called for the formation of a new security force general who had returned from London to help rebuild the composed of resistance f ghters, the creation of a new intel- city, told me companies would pour into the city ; Aden ligence service, and the implementation of “Gulf cation” $5.9bn would resume its former glory; its port, which had been by banning political parties and, ideally, elections. “We had Value of weapons licensed for stagnating before the war, would reclaim its status; and to defeat al-Qaida and use the south as an example of how export by the UK to the Saudi embassies would reopen. In the months after the Houthis’ to implement the new strategies of the Gulf,” he explained. government since the start of departure in 2015, the Emiratis were celebrated as libera- He warned that secessionist passions were gripping the conf ict. Another $1bn+ of tors, their f ags sold on market stalls, and pictures of the Aden, and suggested the UAE should take advantage of arms have been licensed to Saudi rulers adorned street corners and weapons. the moment by sponsoring a loyal faction of the separatists coalition partners including the In the streets, the reality was dif erent. “Liberated Aden” – in part to prevent another power,such as Qatar or Iran, United Arab Emirates resembled other cities devastated by civil wars that fol- from co-opting the Southern Movement. lowed the Arab spring, with rusting, burned tanks and “Look, I work for the Emiratis as an advis er and I wanted armoured vehicles perched on hills, overlooking a city of them to succeed,” he told me. “Our fates are entwined: if scarred streets and gutted buildings, toppled on top of one they fail and decide to leave, it will be a disaster and Aden $510m another like crumpled concrete wafers, and impoverished would be destroyed. I know that I need the Emiratis and Value of the sale authorised by the people left homeless and turned into refugee squatters in I am dependent on them – and at the same time, I am not US Congress of precision-guided their own city. The defeated Houthi militia was replaced naive. I know they have their own project, and they have munitions to Saudi Arabia. These by dozens of others in a city without water, electricity or a their own self-serving goals and agendas, but there is noth- sales had been suspended under sewage system. The war became the main employer, and ing wrong with cooperating with them.” Obama due to civilian casualties the streets f lled with f ghters riding in the back of pick up After he returned to Aden, the sheikh worked with an trucks mounted with heavy machine guns. Commanders Emirati general to train a new security force loyal to them Sources: Full Fact, New York Times from the disunited resistance groups were demanding their and capable of tackling the increasing jihadi threat. While share of the spoils from a broken and destitute city. publicly everyone was paying lip service to helping Yemeni The most powerful of those commanders, men like government institutions and rebuilding a modern army, Ayman Askar, secured control of the ports, factories and the reality was the Emiratis wanted their own client force any institution that generated an income, imposing their that they could control with no intervention from President protection racket. The smaller commanders contented Hadi, who they saw as an obstacle – especially since he allied themselves with looting public and private property, espe- himself with the Emiratis’ enemy, al-Islah. cially if the latter belonged to northerners. “The existing Yemeni army and police were corrupt and ‘When the battle [for Aden] was over we were left in failed institutions. The Emiratis wanted a new force,” the chaos,” the Salaf sheikh told me. “The city was divided sheikh said. “The plan was to train and equip a force into sectors, and each force or militia was controlling a of 3,000 men, but we ended up with a force of 13,000, ! dif erent part and clashing with the others.” so we divided them into four battalions.” The overall

The Guardian Weekly 11 January 2019 11 January 2019 The Guardian Weekly 42 A state of chaos 43

commander of the new force – which was dubbed “Security But no one can compete with the detentions, torture and had a small shop f xing mobiles and computers . He didn’t Belt” – and all the battalion commanders were southerners forced disappearances by the Emirati-sponsored troops. An even pray.” and Salaf s, as were some of the f ghters. The sheikh became unprecedented campaign of terror followed the formation Picking up a small water bottle from the table, he one of the senior commanders. of these forces in 2016. At night men with balaclavas seized squeezed it a little . A few drops fell on to the white plas- In time, the Emiratis formed half a dozen armies, people from their beds. No one claims responsibility for tic table. “One of them brought a bottle like this one and dispersed across Aden and the south of Yemen. Their com- these kidnappings. Although the action was launched started to sprinkle [something] on my back,” he told me. manders function as independent warlords, with tanks, ostensibly to f ght al-Qaida, the targets expanded to include “I smelled petrol [just] before they lit it. I ran around the prisons and a force loyal to them personally. There is no anyone who dared to oppose the UAE presence in Yemen. room hitting the walls and screaming so loudly that guards central command connecting all these forces, and the In the summer I met a human rights lawyer who works came and put out the f re.” government of Yemen has no control over them. Instead, with Yemeni ministry of justice, compiling lists of detain- What he didn’t know then was that he was being f lmed, they work directly under the command of the reigning ees and collecting testimonies from them and their fami- and that his brother had already been detained, but had Emirati general, who appoints and dismisses them at will, lies. “After the battle for Aden we expected the Emiratis refused to confess. “When they showed the f lm to my and distributes his largesse according to their cooperation to form one army from the resistance – instead, they cre- brother, he signed a confession immediately.” and ef ectiveness. Unlike the Yemeni government army ated a dozen forces and they are detaining anyone who Abdullah was taken to a clinic and after an intervention units, with their inf ated numbers and irregularly paid opposes them,” she told me. “Pursuing al-Qa ida became from his powerful tribe, six months later, he was out. He soldiers, the f ghters in the Emirati-controlled forces are a pretext – anyone they don’t approve of is detained, and lifted the edge of his T-shirt to show me his back, where paid regularly and are better dressed and equipped, with almost everyone detained is tortured, often hung from the f esh was mangled and scarred. His brother has yet to an af nity for black ski-masks and extreme brutality. They ceiling, many are sexually abused. The sad thing is that now be charged or released. detain, torture and kill with impunity. southerners are torturing southerners with the blessing When I asked the Salaf sheikh about these abuses, he I met one Security Belt commander at his base north of the Emiratis – while the government of Yemen stands squinted, looked into the middle distance and said they of Aden, near a large checkpoint that separates the city helpless and watches.” were committed by the UAE’s local partners. “The policy in from the neighbouring province of Lahej , where the jihadis She laid a thick pile of f les in front of me – she believes targeting and detaining al-Qaida suspects is internationally had a very strong presence. When he f rst arrived , he said, there are at least 5,000 cases. “We have no power … we acceptable, and the Emiratis are partners with the US on a l - Q a i d a f ghters held positions less than 200 metres away. demand to visit prisons but they don’t answer,” she said. that,” he said. “To target and disappear an al-Qa ida suspect The entire province was controlled by them. ! Tough fighters “Even if they are truly al-Qa ida, they can’t be tortured like – that’s f ne . But to put a man in a jail for a year, torturing ! Aftermath the north was simply a takeover. The commander explained how his forces had prevailed. Abu al-Yamama this. They are creating a timebomb of all those people who him just because his son is accused of joining al-Qa ida, Aish Abduallah For more than a decade – well before the uprisings of the “It was a tough f ght,” he said. “For weeks we slept little (centre) is are tortured – putting the innocent with jihadis and children that’s a problem.” Jaber al-Abri, 55, Arab spring – the fervent and passionate people of south more than two or three hours, patrolling the streets and surrounded by with old men in over crowded rooms.” Abu al-Yamama is a name that makes men shiver in waits to be fitted Yemen have romantically, even naively, called for the resur- snatching al-Qaida suspects … It was a simple formula . his men from Aden is gripped by fear, she told me. Life was easier Aden. He is very proud of his elite units – trained by the with prostheses rection of their old state. They chanted and demonstrated The leaders and the bad guys we killed. Those we deemed the Security Belt during the war – you avoided the frontlines and cowered Emirati special forces – who are, more than anyone else, at a clinic in Aden. peacefully in the streets of Aden, and in villages in the low-risk and reformable – collaborators or shop owners who forces in Yemen indoors. “We boiled potatoes and ate them with bread, but associated with the worst of the atrocities. I sat next to He stepped on a mountains and the deserts, and they were met by brutal- dealt with them – we tortured and jailed, but then released GHAITH ABDUL-AHAD we felt safe. Now we live in fear.” him one morning on his base while he watched his troops landmine in 2016 ity and violence. The security forces under Saleh, and then after six months when they had signed a pledge. The rest Some prisoners don’t know why they were detained. A practising a raid: a group of them, all dressed in black, ANDREW RENNEISEN/ Hadi – a southerner who f ed to the north in the 1980s and of the population we keep in check through informants.” young bespectacled university student, who loved reading stormed an empty room and dragged out one of their own GETTY then led the northern army that crushed the last attempt I n Y e m e n , a c c o r d i n g t o a U N r e p o r t p u b l i s h e d a t t h e history books and discussing them with his friends in a shisha f ghters, shoving him hard on the concrete f oor before at southern independence in 1994 – f red teargas and live end of last year, all parties have been detaining suspects bar, was seized last year by masked men, put in the back of a bundling him on to the back of a pickup truck and speeding ammunition at peaceful demonstrators, and used deten- without trial, and torturing prisoners. The Houthis were pickup truck, his head pushed to the f oor, and taken into a away. They repeated the same exercise several times . tions, torture and sometimes even extrajudicial killings to disappearing writers, journalists and human rights activists windowless room where he was held for three weeks. Later, in his of ce, Yamama dismissed all the claims suppress the Southern Movement . Their cause was largely even before the war started. He was interrogated a few times, but mostly he was left of arbitrary detention and torture as a plot by the Muslim ignored – by the world and by their neighbours – until the alone. Sometimes he thought his jailers had forgotten about Brotherhood to harm the reputation of his forces. “What Houthis invaded the south, and then everything changed. him. Just before his release, an interrogator told him that do they expect me to do to the people roaming the streets “Now we have an army, and we control the south, and we it’s better not talk about “these books you read” in public, with explosive belts?” he asked. “Send them some roses have a regional ally who stands by us,” I was told, proudly, by and he was sent home. and invite them politely to come visit me?” one of the leaders of the Southern Transitional Council – the Many people were detained solely to pressure family primary separatist organising body and the most prominent members. In a brightly lit cafe next to a busy shopping political power in the south, with heavy backing from the centre – full of families, young women in long, black abayas UAE. (The creation of the STC was one of the 16 points of and young boys in tight jeans and gravity-defying hairdos In the south, the old the “road map” outlined by the Salaf sheikh, who is one drinking mango and lime juice and eating burgers and fried of its members.) chicken – I met Abdullah, a nother university student. He dream of independence “We have never been so strong in the south,” the STC drank his lime juice silently, revealing mangled skin on the leader said. “People say we are under the control of the side of his arm each time he lifted the glass. has never died. Emiratis, as if they can move us with a remote control. But In the middle of the night a year ago, masked men Like all residents of cities cursed by the disparity between the Emirates is not a charity. Of course they have interests knocked at his door, told him he was needed for question- a glorious history and a wretched present, the people of – securing the coast, getting rid of al-Qaida, and having a ing, and assured his mother he would be back in the morn- Aden are condemned to yearn for an imagined past. This friendly state here in south Yemen. The Emiratis needed a ing. They blindfolded him and bundled him on to the back yearning is a form of narcotic, and often harmless, until partner, and when they saw the failure of Hadi’s government, of a pickup truck. When they took him of the truck, he it is fused with nationalist or sectarian myths, when the they had to take action.” realised he was in the notorious base of the commander of mixture becomes volatile and explosive. But the dream of southern independence is still shrouded the Security Belt forces in Aden, Abu al-Yamama – a veteran In the years since unif cation, the southerners saw their in myth. In their rhapsodising about the old south, many of cer in the long struggle for southern independence who secular socialist state annexed by the more powerful north; separatists forget to speak of the hunger and the repres- has become a powerful Emirati proxy. they saw their factories dismantled, their of cers f red from sion of those years, and gloss too easily over a history of Abdullah was taken to a small cell and left there for a government posts, their lands taken over, and their edu- c o n f ict and division . The heroes of independence, who few hours. “Before dawn, four men entered the cell. They cation and health systems collapse. Their once poor-but- drove the British out in the 1960s – and then abol- started beating me and asked me to admit that my brother functional state was replaced with a corrupt, nepotistic ished the tribal system, emancipated women, ! was working with the jihadis . I swore that he wasn’t . He tribal regime; what was supposed to be a partnership with eradicated illiteracy and stretched the reach of the

The Guardian Weekly 11 January 2019 11 January 2019 The Guardian Weekly 44 A state of chaos

bureaucracy beyond the limits of British Aden into the more assertive foreign policy, intended to establish the furthest village in the desert – ended up feuding like all Emirates as a regional power. In Yemen, the UAE has three revolutionaries do. central missions that are separate from its support for the Their disagreements over socialist theory and the Saudi coalition. First, to crush political Islam in any form. shape of the state inevitably became personal and vio- Second, to control the strategically valuable Red Sea coast- lent, culminating in the south’s own 10-day civil war in line – across a narrow strait from the Horn of Africa, where 1986 – whose losers, Hadi among them, were exiled to the the UAE has already established military bases in Djibouti north before returning victorious when the north easily and Eritrea. And third, to develop and strengthen its own vanquished the southern army in 1994. Now those who special forces, who train and oversee local proxies such as lost in 1994 are siding with the Emiratis, while Hadi and the Security Belt troops. his allies are against them. The increasingly visible pursuit of these geopolitical Of course, history is not on a loop – but just as the Ameri- imperatives has not necessarily impressed their ostensible cans, with extreme ignorance, set the stage for a brutal civil allies in Yemen. In Aden over the summer, criticism of the war in Iraq by allying themselves with one side, so have UAE was spreading , especially among the poor, who had the Emiratis created the conditions for the resumption of thought the presence of their very rich neighbours would strife and civil war. make their lives better. Instead, the electricity supply had “I don’t want the [independent] south any more,” one got worse, preventable diseases were spreading, and the young activist told me. “For many years, my friends and I collapse of the Yemeni riyal was making them even poorer. dream ed of the south, but if they are so divided now, what In September, demonstrations erupted in Aden and the will happen when they become a state? They will be killing rest of the south over the state of the economy. By now, all one another in the street as they did before.” hope of new development had faded, and enthusiasm for the separatist STC has f zzled into inf ghting and rivalries. Even among the Emiratis’ staunchest allies, the Salaf s, there was growing resentment at being used as cannon Last summer in Aden, fodder in someone else’s war. As one Salaf resistance commander who stopped f ght- huge billboards hung ing alongside the Emiratis told me angrily : “Why are we sending our best men to die at the front – and bombing over the streets. civilians who are trapped between us and the Houthis – just They had pictures of the Emirati crown prince, Moham- because they want to control the coast?” med bin Zayed, along with Hadi and a handful of lesser In a small hotel room in one of the poorer parts of Aden, commanders – some alive, some dead. On the walls there I sat with three Southern Movement leaders, who had all was stencilled pro-UAE graf ti, and posters emblazoned fought in the resistance, and all previously considered with their f ags. But over the summer, “Down with Emirati themselves friends of the Emiratis, from whom they had occupation” slogans started to appear. received weapons, money and trucks. But all of them said The uprisings of the Arab spring, and the violent chaos that in the past year they had been targeted for arrest or that followed, created a shift in the power dynamics of assassination by the Security Belt forces. “A war with them the Arab world. Not only did the Gulf monarchies loudly is only a matter of time,” one said. proclaim themselves the new symbols of stability in a region All three have now joined the Hadi camp. I asked one torn by civil war , they also seized the moment to project of the men – who spent years campaigning for southern their power by intervening in their neighbours’ conf icts, independence – why he was suddenly plotting against f nancing and arming militias in Syria, Libya and Yemen, the Emiratis and the STC. “We wanted a south based on and backing a military coup in Egypt. state institutions, and not militias,” he replied. “What we Under the hawkish Zayed, the UAE has embraced a much have now is a state of chaos where masked gunmen kill and detain at will. This is not the south that I have been campaigning for. Either the Emiratis take the south and ! No respite declare it their colony, or they must respect the people Protests against and the president.” inflation on the On my last visit to the Salaf sheikh in Aden, I found him streets of Aden, despondent. “The south has been ruled by the southern- which is under the ers for the past three years, and yet it has been a failure,” control of UAE- he said. He insisted that the Emiratis must stay, because if backed forces they leave, “Aden can easily fall again, and all these units SALEH AL-OBEIDI/AFP/ will be f ghting one another. We need them to stay. At the GETTY same time, I am frustrated by the mistakes they make. I understand that they are still learning, because they don’t have the experience as an imperial nation, but then they behave with the arrogance of an imperial nation.” He concluded: “I know two years is not a long time in the life of a nation trying to build an empire, but it is a very short time to turn your friends into your enemies.” • GHAITH ABDUL-AHAD IS AN IRAQI JOURNALIST WHO HAS REPORTED ON IRAQ, AFGHANISTAN, SYRIA, LIBYA AND YEMEN FOR THE GUARDIAN

The Guardian Weekly 11 January 2019 51 re Film,Film, music, art, books & momore

t T-RRIFICAfterAfter anan almost almos MesozoicMesozoic wait,s THEATRE tthehe dinosaursdinosaur The young, at Washington’sn SmithsonianSmithsonia black director nallnallyy shaking up the are fi g London stage comingcomin Page 55 & backback to life 52 Culture 53 Museums

Stomping on and biting the hapless triceratops, the T rex moulds reinf ate it to 3D instead of is not alone in playing to the gallery. Starrs (“I have kids so being pancaked.” of course I love Jurassic Park ”) explained: “It def nitely The gallery will depict life on earth’s was an important goal of ours that we wanted things to epic journey of more than 3.7bn years, be as lifelike as possible, which doesn’t always mean high teasing out themes and fundamental drama. So we’ve got predatory scenes like with our T rex, questions around natural selection, which is clearly a dramatic moment, but then we also have ecosystems changes and mass extinc- ones where they’re slumbering or gently scratching the tions. It will aim to answer frequent side of the face. questions such as: What does evolu- “We’re trying to capture all phases of life, not just the tion mean? How do you know how most dramatic. Our Allosaurus is where we decided to take old a fossil is? What’s the dif erence a predator and put it in a surprising pose, a nesting scene, between carbon dating and radio- so it’s sitting with a clutch of eggs within its protect ive tail active dating? curve. The idea is to make them both scientif cally accurate It also comes with a timely message and make you start thinking about them as a living organism about our impact. Starrs said: “We’re that lived in a real place in an ecosystem with other living using the past as a point of entry and understanding the ▲ Old bones things around it, just like organisms do today.” human footprint on the planet today. That’s revolutionary. A Diplodocus foot Other highlights in what is billed as the most-visited “Are we headed to another mass extinction and are we room in the most-visited natural history museum in the driving that as a species? It was an asteroid and now is it ▼ Dino delight world include the f rst fossil to be given the name Stego- humans? We tackle these questions in the exhibition, which The dinosaur saurus as well as a Mastodon rearing up under a quotation I’ve never seen done in a fossil hall before .” exhibit’s project from Charles Darwin: “From so simple a beginning endless Yet the hall will carry David Koch’s name. He and his manager, Siobhan forms most beautiful and most wonderful have been, and brother Charles have sent at least $100m directly to 84 Starrs, and are being, evolved.” There are also some new acquisitions. groups denying climate change science since 1997, accord- Diplodocus Starrs said cryptically: “The most exciting one was a recent ing to Greenpeace. David Koch’s donation comes at a time gift I can’t really talk about but it’s going to be great when when museums are under greater scrutiny than ever over visitors see it.” their sources of funding. Last April protesters gathered at During the hall’s shutdown, all specimens were removed the Smithsonian’s Arthur M Sackler Gallery of Art to focus for conservation and study by Smithsonian scientists in a attention on what they claim is the wealthy family’s role network of specially created labs and storage units in the in the opioid crisis . bowels of the museum (“No social media posts please ” Randall Kremer, the director of public a f airs at the reads a sign with red lines through Facebook, Twitter Natural History Museum, said: “The question certainly and camera symbols). The biggest and comes up but we don’t vet our donors on anything more " Show stoppers heaviest fossils were disassembled and than whether they believe in the mission. In the case of Mr Menoceras and transported to “dino builders” Research Koch, he’s been on the board of the museum for a decade Teleoceras at the Casting International near Toronto in and is one of the pre-eminent philanthropists in the United Smithsonian Canada, where they were repositioned States. Beyond that, it’s not an issue.” into more scientif cally accurate poses. DAVID SMITH IS THE GUARDIAN’S WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF REPORT e’s decapitating a Triceratops,” contain everything from Abraham Lincoln’s last silk stove- In some cases it was almost like a second excavation as By David Smith Siobhan Starrs observes casually. pipe hat to Charles Lindbergh’s Spirit of St Louis, but there Victorian cabinet-of-curiosities methods were carefully PHOTOGRAPHY “You want drama with the T rex. had always been a T rex-shaped hole in the collection. unravelled by 21st century techniques. Starrs explained: Jocelyn We’ll give it to you.” The gory scene, Visitors to the old hall had to make do with a cast replica. “For the fossils we found out that there was actually quite a Augustino worthy of Jurassic Park, is frozen But 30 years ago a Montana rancher, hiking with her bit we didn’t know, or thought we knew that we didn’t really in time in the 2,900-square-metre family on land managed by the US Army Corps of Engi- fully understand, because quite a few were embedded in fossil hall at the popular Smith- neers in the Hell Creek Formation, made a startling dis- walls or in f oors and no one had ever documented or been sonian National Museum of Natural covery. Digging with a garden shovel and jackknife, Kathy able to see what was behind that wall or under the f oor.” History in Washington DC, which reopens to the public on Wankel unearthed a complete T rex arm. A local expert A Gorgosaurus skull, for example, that had been half- H8 June after a massive overhaul spanning f ve years and excavated the rest. In 2014 the specimen was loaned to embedded in plaster during a previous preservation process costing $125m. the Smith sonian for 50 years and now the skeleton has turned out to have a complete other side with even a full row The Nation’s T rex, as this individual is known, will stand been assembled. of teeth. The f rst Ceratosaurus ever found , tantalisingly about 4.5 metres tall, upright for the f rst time in 66m years, It is an especially important T rex because of “all the inaccessible to scientists for more than in this new exhibit, alongside more than 720 specimens, debate about why the tiny little arms”, said Starrs, project a century because it was half-buried including dinosaurs, plants, animals and insects, ranging manager in the museum’s of ce of exhibits. “It’s a very in a museum wall, was labo riously in size from a 27-metre-long Diplodocus to pollen grains complete specimen for T rexes and it has the most complete extracted with hammer and chisel of a millimetre. arm ever found, including all digits, which helped advance and power tools. There has To the dismay of countless parents looking for diversions science because this is an ongoing question: how could a Steve Jabo, a preparator proudly always on rainy days, the grand fossil hall closed in 2014 for the truly predatory dinosaur take down prey if its arms are surveying the Ceratosaurus cast that biggest building renovation in the museum’s history. With almost vestigial-looking? will be displayed on its back in a los- been its 1910 architectural grandeur and ornate craftsmanship “We present this as a question of open science in the exhi- ing f ght against the Stegosaurus, a T rex- restored, what was once colloquially known as the Hall of bition because it really isn’t fully resolved, but they were explained: “It was locked in the wall Extinct Monsters will now be called The David H Koch Hall probably scavengers and predators both, so they were just in 1910. We didn’t know what the shaped of Fossils – Deep Time, in recognition of a $35m gift from the perfect eating machine. If they came across something back would look like. The skull was hole in the the controversial conservative billionaire . that was already dead, they would scavenge. But they also smashed f at – it just happens geologi- , The Smithsonian Institution’s 19 museums and zoo were truly predatory at the same time.” cally – but we had a guy who makes collection

The Guardian Weekly 11 January 2019 11 January 2019 The Guardian Weekly