Scottish Forest Products Transport Mapping
REVISED FINAL REPORT
The Spaven McCrossan p a r t n e r s h i p
IBI GROUP
Alan Massey, consultant
June 2001 Scottish Enterprise Scottish Forest Products Transport Mapping REVISED FINAL REPORT
CONTENTS
Page
1. INTRODUCTION 4
2. DATA COLLATION & CLEANING 6
2.1 Origin Supply Data: Industry Survey Data
2.2 Destination Demand: Team Survey Data
3. TRACKING & MAPPING THE FLOWS 18
3.1 Origin-Destination Demand methodology
3.2 O.S. mapping data sets
3.3 GIS methodology: Project Networks, analysis and final routings
4. IDENTIFYING KEY BARRIERS 32
4.1 Scenarios: application of demand to network capacities
4.2 Road network capacity
4.3 Sea network capacity
4.4 Rail network capacity
5. STRATEGIC RESPONSE TO BARRIERS 47
5.1 Road Capacity
5.2 Sea Capacity
5.3 Rail Capacity
5.4 Consultation
6. CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS 59
7. APPENDIX 64
Demand: Total Tonnages and mode shares
Rail connection status processors /Rail capacity technical issues
Future data management and analysis
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LIST OF MAPS AND FIGURES
Figures: Page
Destination Demand: Companies Summary 11 Demand and Supply assumptions overall 16 Demand Survey Total Tonnages and mode shares 16 Demand and Supply assumptions by Forest District 16 Summary of Scenarios components 34 Road network timber capacity assumptions 37 Overall Mode shares and shifts 2000-15 48 Maximum Timber tonnages by Local Authority area 51
Maps:
Timber Supply Origin Points 9 Timber Demand Destination tonnages per annum 2001-01 12 Forest District boundaries used 16 Road project network, overview 28 Agreed and excluded timber routes example 29 Local road network example with timber exit points 31 Sea project network capacities 41 Projected rail network capacity – 2015 46 Road Network capacity analysis examples 52
Abbreviations used in this document: EWS English, Welsh and Scottish Railway FCA Forestry Contracting Association FE Forest Enterprise FFG Freight Facilities Grant FIDC Forest Industries Development Council GIS Geographical Information System SEN Scottish Enterprise (National) SRA Strategic Rail Authority TAG Track Access Grant TGA Timber Growers Association UKFPA U.K. Forest Products Association
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1. INTRODUCTION
The Spaven McCrossan Partnership – in conjunction with IBI and Alan J Massey, were appointed in December 2000 to undertake research into timber flows, infrastructure barriers, and to make recommendations to overcome these barriers, as set out in the Scottish Enterprise Consultant’s Brief of October 2000.
The Study Brief required the team to:
• Collate available data on timber flows
• Map existing and projected flows
• Identify infrastructure barriers
• Make recommendations on overcoming barriers
The timeline for the study envisaged specified ‘snapshots’ of the team’s timber transport analysis for the years 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015.
The commission was focused specifically on the task of mapping timber transport movements, rather than the wider issues of demand for, and supply of, Scottish timber within northern Britain. However the creation of a transport and modelling and mapping tool has been a specific output of the commission. The conclusions contained in this report reflect a range of inputs and assumptions developed over several months, with input from the industry.
Demand and supply are of course moving targets, and the potential for divergence in trends, and therefore timber transport pressures and infrastructure needs, are considerable, particularly towards the latter part of a 15-year horizon. The study has been undertaken at a macro level. There is undoubtedly scope for future assumptions regarding micro-scale demand and transport infrastructure provision and utilization to generate further conclusions which will be of particular relevance to the variety of interests within the timber cluster: growers, processors and transport infrastructure providers. The report is itself therefore both:
• A snapshot in what will become an ongoing process of timber transport needs analysis, now that the modelling capability is in place
• A guide to the tool’s foundation and operation, using given assumptions
During the early part of the study however, it became apparent that current industry research into timber supply and demand was likely to have a bearing on the assumptions underlying our analysis of timber transportation needs: not least because of the availability of reliable demand estimates.
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The team were appointed with the understanding that existing data on the sources and destinations of timber were available, but in various sources and formats, and would require cleaning and collation before any analysis could take place.
In practice, no destination data was available for over half of the primary processors, and over three quarters of the tonnage. The timber source data did not relate to any destinations at all. A major exercise had therefore to be undertaken, of sourcing data on the actual and projected movements of timber from processors directly. This task had not originally been envisaged, and had an impact on the balance of resources deployed by the consultants. The need to create a full origin-to-destination database, mostly from primary survey work undertaken by the consultants, in effect limited, to a degree, the available time to undertake detailed capacity analysis. The end result has, however been highly positive:
• A clearer overall picture of timber transport demand and supply has been established, and all of the data supplied to the team was usable and useful
• A robust timber transport modelling tool has been developed
• The modelling tool’s structure and accessibility means that future enhancement for detailed local analysis or testing of potential scenarios should be relatively straightforward
• The process of developing the tool enabled several mapping licensing issues regarding future use of the modelling tool to be resolved
Many of the maps used in this report are direct images from the modelling tool (rather than derived graphics), and provide a better sense of the graphical front-end of the GIS as experienced by the user.
In the following sections of the report we set out in detail how the data was collected for use in its final form, proceed to the tracking and mapping the flows, by road, sea and rail modes, identify the potential barriers, based on the assumptions used by the team and discussed within the industry, and conclude with a strategic view of potentially unlocking the barriers.
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2. DATA COLLATION & CLEANING
2.1 Origin Supply Data: Industry Survey Data
The team began work by examining the currently available information on sources of timber within Scotland.
A substantial database of timber supply flows has been established over the past two years by the Timber Growers’ Association (TGA) from its own membership, in liaison with a range of Timber Transport Groups across Scotland, other private sector and Forest Enterprise/Commission (FE/FC) sources. It has been derived from a questionnaire-based survey identifying:
• An originating exit point on the road network of individual flows of timber, to 100m accuracy, using Ordnance Survey (OS) National Grid references
• Total volumes expressed in tonnes per annum, for 2000-03 annually, and totals for 2004-08
• A text description of road routing at a local level
• Direction of travel from the exit point
• Whether the respondent would consider rail transport and any specified railhead
• The area in hectares of the identified origin
• The owner’s or agent’s contact details
Other direct sources such as Argyll Timber Transport Group (ATTG), FE Lowlands District supplemented this total with survey returns in the TGA format. After some verification, a core database of around 1,700 such flows was established, in a common format covering financial years 2000-2009. A further 5% of the origin records were reserved for future use, once their accuracy has been verified.
As will be apparent from the above description, this database represents a substantial information resource, and one which has considerable commercially-oriented information. The consultants gave a confidentiality undertaking to TGA that no company-specific data would be used or disclosed. It was not necessary to have this level of information incorporated into the modelling exercises, but the capability exists to have such information made available in future if access is required. The figure below summarises the origin data sources:
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The TGA/TTG survey therefore provided the team with O.S. Grid references for exit points on road network, but no destination data. It was therefore not possible from this substantial resource to gain an overall picture of timber movements much beyond the first leg of the movement from forest gate to nearest A road. Neither did the database provide any indication of how close the supply, as measured by the survey returns, related to overall demand, or what trends were envisaged by the growers, at a local level, beyond 2008. This is not a deficiency of the TGA survey or database, but rather that its purposes were rather different from this study’s objectives.
Where the TGA-collated data did prove invaluable, however, was in:
• Its highly specific location of the points at which timber flows are currently and are likely to be to be generated
• The provision of origin point tonnages, which enabled a calculation of the proportions of output by origin area at Forest District level, used in the final mapping process and described below
• Cross checking of local movement directions with those predicted in the modelling exercises
The origin points used from the cleaned database are shown on the Timber Supply Origin Points map on page 9. The set of origins points shown was indicated by TGA to cover some 80% of total harvested timber tonnage in Scotland. It is not clear whether the balance of the unavailable information is concentrated in any particular location or sector. But from the material provided through the growers’ survey, it appears that the most comprehensive coverage is likely to be within the FE/FC public sector sources.
Some specific localities, such as Islay, have no firm data, even though it is likely that timber flows will be forthcoming from these areas over the 15-year horizon of the study. We do not believe that this is an insurmountable issue or that it has impacted on the strategic nature of the current exercise. Indeed, the format in which the modelling tool has been developed should facilitate ongoing updates of the timber source data and its extension to well beyond 80% coverage. We return to the issue of ongoing database maintenance in the conclusions to the report.
A related maintenance issue is information availability from areas across the Scottish Border. The study brief was concerned with the movement of Scottish timber only, to its ultimate destination in Scotland or the rest of Britain. No data was available from timber harvesting areas immediately over the border in the north of England. The Keilder area is effectively contiguous with the adjacent Scottish areas of forest in the eastern Borders region, and is likely to have a bearing on total transport movements and pressures on local roads
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infrastructure. It should be borne in mind that only a partial picture of timber transport movements is currently available within this area. We have proposed that this issue should be addressed at an early stage on conclusion to this current study, in conjunction with FE, the Commission and the north of England development agencies.
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Map Timber Supply Origin Points
Timber Origins: 1,700 Exit Points Used for Analysis
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2.2 Destination Demand: Team Survey Data
No comprehensive database of destinations for Scottish timber was available to the team. It proved necessary, therefore, to undertake a survey of primary processors to obtain the necessary information directly. This supplemented data covering around a quarter of the potential destination tonnage supplied by FE. The FE data covered key groups of processors, such as BSW Timber Plc and James Jones & Sons Ltd, but for the year 2000 only.
Although not envisaged at the outset, the destination data collation exercise proved to be a necessary and valuable task for the analysis of origin-destination movements, comprising:
• Telephone/e-mail/face to face surveys
• All flows inbound above 5,000 tonnes per annum
• Total inbound tonnage to each plant, including those flows
• All of the major and minor processors: sawmills, paper, board mills
The Destination Data used totalled some 57 destinations in master matrix. Not all are current consumers of Scottish timber, and some, including several in the north of England, were included on the basis of past (even modest) usage of Scottish sources. Although the study was confined to movements of timber rather than co-products, an additional set of flows were added which were large enough to impact on forest-to-destination movements. These comprised several in-forest chip volumes for a single firm for its plant in central Scotland. The team would like to express its thanks to the firms who participated so willingly in this exercise.
The table and Timber Demand Destination Tonnages map below summarise the destinations and sources of survey data.
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Destination Demand: Companies Summary
Company Activity data source A. Wilson & Sons Ltd.(Ayrshire) sawmill Forest Enterprise A. Wilson & Sons Ltd.(West Argyll) sawmill Forest Enterprise AW Jenkinson sawmill Team Survey Barchards sawmill No direct survey, no Scottish timber intake BSW-Boat of Garten sawmill Forest Enterprise BSW-Carlisle sawmill Forest Enterprise BSW-Kilmallie sawmill Forest Enterprise BSW-Newbridge on Wye sawmill Forest Enterprise BSW-Senghenydd sawmill Forest Enterprise BSW-Petersmuir sawmill Team Survey Callander James sawmill Team Survey Cordiner James sawmill Team Survey Cramb P.E. sawmill Team Survey Direct Worktops sawmill Team Survey Dutko Sawmills sawmill No direct survey, no Scottish timber intake Earnshaw sawmill No direct survey, no Scottish timber intake Forest Garden PLC sawmill Team Survey Gordons of Nairn sawmill Team Survey Hunter Wilson sawmill Team Survey Irving Peter & Sons sawmill No direct survey, no Scottish timber intake J.Jones & Sons-Aboyne sawmill Forest Enterprise J.Jones & Sons-Dumfries sawmill Forest Enterprise J.Jones & Sons-Kinnoir sawmill Forest Enterprise J.Jones & Sons-Kirriemuir sawmill Forest Enterprise J.Jones & Sons-Mosstodloch sawmill Forest Enterprise James Jones & Son - Lockerbie sawmill Team Survey Kerr Timber Products sawmill Team Survey Kingan James sawmill Team Survey Law J&J sawmill Team Survey Lockerbie Sawmills sawmill Team Survey Lorn Sawmills sawmill Team Survey Mair Alexander sawmill Team Survey McBlain T.K. sawmill Team Survey Munro JDG sawmill Team Survey Perthshire Timber sawmill Team Survey Phillips sawmill Team Survey Pontrilas Timber sawmill Team Survey R. Howie & Sons sawmill Forest Enterprise Rammerscales sawmill Team Survey Riding Sawmills Ltd. sawmill Forest Enterprise Scott A & J of Wooperton sawmill Team Survey Scott Timber sawmill Team Survey Taylormade Timber Products sawmill Team Survey Tulloch Timber(Nairn) Ltd. sawmill Forest Enterprise Walker Jeffrey sawmill No direct survey, no Scottish timber intake Windymains Sawmill sawmill Forest Enterprise Arjjo Wiggins papermill Team Survey Caledonian Paper Plc papermill Forest Enterprise Euroforest Whole Tree Chipping in-forest chipper Team Survey Egger (Barony) Ltd. boardmill Forest Enterprise Egger (UK) Ltd. boardmill Forest Enterprise Iggesund Paperboard Ltd. boardmill Forest Enterprise Kronospan(board) boardmill Team Survey Kronospan (sawmill) sawmill Team Survey Nexfor Ltd Cowie (Caberboard) boardmill Forest Enterprise Nexfor Ltd Dalcross (Sterlingboard) boardmill Forest Enterprise Shotton Paper UPM Kymenne boardmill Team Survey Sonae (UK) Ltd boardmill Team Survey Exports Team Survey
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Timber Demand Destination tonnages per annum 2001-01
Timber Destinations: Timber Inbound to Processors, FY 2001
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The responses effectively tracked flows back to Forest District (FD) level. This geographic zone of origin was used primarily because:
• FD boundaries provide a more natural unit of definition of timber source area for transport analysis than local authority areas or postcodes
• Most timber buyers at the destination plants are familiar with FD boundaries and could readily identify total tonnages from each
The FD boundaries have been subject to change and some amalgamation. The boundaries used were those pre-dating the current revision, as shown on the map below. This version retains well-defined areas where local geography can otherwise produce some challenges in GIS-based transportation analysis. It was desirable, for example, to retain Cowal and Aberfoyle FDs as distinct source areas.
As with the origin data, all destination plants were given a confidentiality undertaking in relation to tonnage information provided. No detailed company-specific information has been disclosed, but the thematic maps below provide a good overview of current demand for Scottish timber, based on the 2000-2001 financial year.
Total demand was estimated by mills to rise from some 3.5M tpa in 2000/01 to 4.4M tpa by 2015, with sawlogs demand growing more slowly than roundwood. These compare with current supply forecasts rising from around 4.9M tpa to around 9.5M tpa by 2015, and with a more rapid rise in sawlogs than roundwood. Few processors however, had a clear view of trends beyond the immediate 5-year period, and the apparent supply-demand mismatch should be viewed with some caution. (When the potential ‘Industry-Plus’ demand scenario was applied, as described in chapter 4 of the report, demand rose to 6.7M tpa),
Some timber demand quantification issues arose as part of the survey process, but which are beyond the scope of the current mapping study. These issues nevertheless may require some follow up investigation within the industry:
• Although we were concerned with the year 2000 onwards, several of the major processors indicated that they recently (since 1998) or were about to (during 2001-2) reduce substantially their intake of Scottish timber, due to the impact of transport costs as a proportion of total price. They cannot be identified specifically, but tend to be in the NW England/NE Wales area, and at least 100 miles distant from the nearest Scottish sources
• Some of the major board and paper processors who in the very recent past relied largely on Scottish round timber, are moving towards replacing this supply, partially or
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completely, with recycled fibre, either by chipping on-site or transporting fibre from other locations
As stated above, this study is not a full economic analysis of the demand and supply position for Scottish timber, nor is the mapping tool a full econometric model of the timber cluster. The results of the demand survey, however, make interesting comparison with published supply estimates for Scottish timber, and the growers’ survey.
They suggest that there may be, at least in the short term, some over-supply of both sawlogs and roundwood, as measured by the overall demand in our survey of sawmills and other processors respectively. The demand survey itself is of course not 100% comprehensive, but we believe that we may only have omitted smaller plants, such as individual estate sawmills. The flows of fewer than 5,000 tonnes p.a. with no identified source were likely to represent a very small proportion of total tonnage into the large mills, and perhaps around 5% of total volumes.
The level of coverage of demand tonnage overall is therefore likely to be higher than the growers’ supply survey, suggesting that the over-supply may be greater than these figures would indicate.
Against this apparent picture of over-supply should be balanced the uncertain nature of future processors’ demands. The mills surveyed generally have a firm view of future timber requirements for the next 5 years but few could definitively state their demand for the next 15 years, during which new investment might lift demand toward the forecasts of supply. In the sawmilling sector in particular, the survey’s generally flat view of future demand may mask:
• increasing utilisation of exiting plants through relatively low-investment moves such as additional shift working, which could lift demand rapidly
• planned new production investment which would lift demand in large, non-linear trends
• forthcoming consolidation of production in fewer locations, which would alter the patterns of timber movement, even for the same level of overall tonnage
These issues apply also to the demand for roundwood, perhaps even more so given the concentration of demand at fewer, larger, locations. Again, ongoing survey work with processors and updating of assumptions to include planned new investment as it arises, will all assist in producing a more accurate picture of future timber movements. Such adjustments are possible within the modelling tool, which has been constructed with the need for amendments in mind.
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These are issues to which we return later in the report when we consider the scenarios used for forecasts in the 2005-15 period. The tables below summarise the total current demand and supply position as established by the surveys, at a national and Forest District level. The notional sawlogs/roundwood demand splits are directly taken from the total tonnages provided by mills in the survey.
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Demand and Supply assumptions overall (tonnes per annum
SUPPLY FORECASTS (approx): 2000 2005 2010 2015 sawlogs 2,300,000 2,500,000 3,050,000 3,600,000
roundwood 2,400,000 3,300,000 4,850,000 5,900,000 all softwood 4,700,000 5,800,000 7,900,000 9,500,000 SURVEY DEMAND: all softwood 3,499,599 3,580,278 3,697,440 4,420,848
Demand Survey Total Tonnages and mode shares tonnes per annum)
TOTAL FORECAST TIMBER TONNAGES (p.a.)
Neutral (Industry Survey View) 2000 Neutral 2005 Neutral 2010 Neutral 2015 Neutral Road 3,111,099 3,111,099 2,981,553 3,571,820 Sea 232,000 260,389 288,665 339,238 Rail 156,500 208,790 427,222 509,790 3,499,599 3,580,278 3,697,440 4,420,848
TOTAL FORECAST TIMBER MODE SHARES (by tonnes p.a.) Neutral (Industry Survey View)
2000 Neutral 2005 Neutral 2010 Neutral 2015 Neutral Road 5-year share % 88.9% 86.9% 80.6% 80.8% Sea 5-year share % 6.6% 7.3% 7.8% 7.7% Rail 5-year share % 4.5% 5.8% 11.6% 11.5%
Demand and Supply assumptions by Forest District (tonnes per annum)
Demand and Supply by Forest District: 2000 Surveys
G a llo w a y
AE
Bo rde rs
A b e rfo y le
In v e rn e s s
M o ra y
West Argyll
Bu ch a n
K in ca rdin e
T a y
L o ch a b e r
Fort Augustus Supply Survey C o w a l
D o rn o ch Processors Demand
L o rn e
L o w la n ds
0 1 0 0 ,0 0 0 2 0 0 ,0 0 0 3 0 0 ,0 0 0 4 0 0 ,0 0 0 5 0 0 ,0 0 0 6 0 0 ,0 0 0 7 0 0 ,0 0 0
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Forest District boundaries used
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3. TRACKING & MAPPING THE FLOWS
3.1 Origin-Destination Demand methodology
With the clean sets of data in place, it was clear that the methodology for creating a picture of origin-to-destination flow would be primarily demand-led. This demand-based approach has several advantages, since it required the team to use:
• Actual consumer tonnages as submitted by the processors
• Highly accurate areas of origin as defined by Forest District
• Actual road, sea and rail mode use and preference, as stated
• Forecasts & scenarios which are customer-driven
Origin supply data cross-checking was possible from the TGA-supplied growers’ survey. These 1,700 origin records were re-analysed at Forest District level to match the boundaries used for the demand survey. We adopted a 3-stage process in using this data to establish a full origin-destination matrix, for the 2000-15 timeline:
Step 1:
• Establish the master matrix, tie demand destination to Forest District by mode and year
Step 2:
• Allocate tonnages, mill by mill, within FD to origin points, using the ratios described in the growers’ survey
Step 3:
• Construct key variables for use in timeline and scenario adjustments
Step 1, Establishing the Master Matrix, was relatively straightforward for the mill demand survey returns. But there were several (mainly those supplied by FE) where no tonnage requirements had been stated beyond the year 2000. Rather than introducing unknown future demand to these locations, we applied the demand trend for sawlogs and roundwood from the majority of the processors in the relevant sectors actually surveyed, to these, to produce a neutral ‘industry-view’ set of demand tonnages to each FD to 2015. Given the uncertainty surrounding likely level of demand beyond the immediate 5-year horizon, these provided the best available measurement of Scottish timber demand by zone of origin that currently exists, and fulfilled the study brief’s desire to look to the position in 2015, but should be viewed with some caution towards the end of this timeline.
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Step 2, Allocating tonnages, mill by mill, within FD to origin points was also a relatively simple, if substantial task, since it involved matching 57destinations directly to the 1,700 individual origin points within each FD. The process took actual surveyed demand within a given FD and allocated it proportionately to each origin point, using the ratios derived from in the growers’ database. When moving the analysis from Stage 1 to Stage 2, there are several caveats to be borne in mind when interpreting the results:
• The actual sourcing patterns from each mill are not reflected in the tonnages allocated to each origin point, (since this data is not available), rather a proxy using the ratios described above. In practice individual mills or intermediaries will source from specific blocks within the FD.
• The ratios of output from each origin point change over time (as harvesting patterns alter within the FD). This is reflected in the model, using the growers’ database ratios, but is only available until 2008.
• Beyond this year, we have had to assume that the 2008 set of origin ratios remains through until 2015, when in practice this may only be a reliable guide to the balance of tonnages within FDs until the 2010 ‘snapshot’ in the study timeline. Future updating of the growers’ survey beyond 2008 would enable the timber flow assumptions to better match the likely harvesting patterns 10 years and more ahead.
Step 3 involved taking the ‘industry view’ neutral returns from the survey and constructing key variables for use in timeline forecasts and the development of future ‘what if’ scenarios. The quantitative demand variables included:
• Processor capacity plant level
• (Differential) rates of demand growth for sawlogs and roundwood
• Individual road, sea and rail transport mode shares adjusted at a plant-by plant level and on a corridor-to FD level
Qualitative issues are also likely to have a bearing on the future transport flows of timber, and in particular the potential for any future shift from road to sea and rail modes. Service competitiveness factors, including reliability, transit time guarantees, shipment tracking and price competitiveness were not included as specific variables in the modelling tool. This is not to say that they could not be added in future. But the macro-level analysis of the current study precluded the adoption of such quantitative factors at this stage, as they would have introduced a potentially pseudo-scientific level of analysis and consequent impact on the final results. The team did recognise the importance of qualitative issues and did make some manual adjustments to mode shares for individual sites. This described in more detail in the
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following section when consideration is made of the of the individual mode infrastructure provision, an in the scenarios used.
Future demand levels were also the subject of discussion both with individual survey respondents at the destination mills and in a specific session in April 2001, in which several representatives of processors, infrastructure providers and contractors participated.
The consultant team had not originally envisaged this level of input to demand forecasts. Our intention had been to use established industry forecast assumptions of timber supply to provide the likely levels of demand growth in modelling flows beyond the year 2000. The apparent divergence in trends between these forecasts and our demand survey required, in our professional opinion, further industry discussion. The outcome of this session was to amend the scenario assumptions used in assessing the demand for transportation infrastructure. We now turn to this analysis in the following section of the report.
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3.2 O.S. mapping data sets
GIS
The GIS adopted for this study is ArcView 3.1 available from ESRI. In addition the Network Analyst module was incorporated into the GIS to provide routing algorithm functionality along with bespoke scripts used to automate the processing of data.
ArcView was adopted due to its common, wide use within the project team cluster and versatility of the output formats available from it. Results sets created by the GIS can be exported easily to other GIS vendor formats.
Mapping data sets – Framework GIS data
Ordnance Survey Data
Ordnance Survey were selected as the data provider for the framework datasets used within the Timber Flow Mapping Study. This was for a number of reasons:
· Ordnance Survey offer a wide variety of data sets that are appropriate to this type of study
· The quality of data offered is very high with updates being made available on a regular basis
· Service Level Agreements between the Ordnance Survey and Scottish Enterprise, and the Forestry Commission are in place that enable relatively easy and cost affective procurement of the data
Data Sets
A large element of the study has been to develop a GIS that provides a strategic view of timber flows throughout Scotland and parts of Northern England. For this reason, a variety of data sets have been used and are to be used within the GIS.
The primary focus of the study has been upon the use of the Scottish transportation networks, for this reason, higher resolution data sets have been used for Scottish mapping, whilst slightly lower resolution data sets have been used for England and Wales. In the future, due to the consistency in the vendor of these data sets, higher resolution data sets can be used for the English and Welsh networks if appropriate.
An outline of the data sets and how they are used can be found in table below:
Framework OS Data used for Scottish mapping
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Data Set Details Source Ordnance The Traffic Manager data set provides the centre Scottish Survey OSCAR alignment of all roads in Scotland, from private and Enterprise Traffic pedestrian to multilane motorway. The study has Manager™ focused on using Motorways, A-roads, B-roads and selected parts of the minor road network. The approved, consultation and excluded routes were digitised to this data set. By using a high resolution OSCAR data set, the potential in the future for analysing traffic movements at a very detailed level is available. OS Strategi™ The Strategi data set is based upon data collected at Scottish 1:200,000 scale and provides road features, along Enterprise with coastline, land use areas, railways, authority boundaries and a variety of environmental features. For this study this data set has been used to provide the rail network, coastline, authority boundaries and the majority of cartographic features for map display OS Point This data set contains the central point (centroid) of Scottish Address File every 6 figure post code district in Scotland. The Enterprise (PAF) data set was used to geocode1 the locations of all of the timber mills / destinations that provided a postcode of for their location
English & Welsh Framework Data
Data Set Details Source OS Strategi The Strategi™ data set is used for road data within Scottish England and Wales. As the focus of the study is on Enterprise Scotland, the Strategi data set was deemed suitable for England and Wales, where only major roads needed to be mapped. Other features such as the rail network, coast and land use areas were also used for the display of maps OS 3 digit post Similar to the post code / address file used for Scottish code data Scotland a data set containing the centroids of all 3 Enterprise figure post code districts in England and Wales was used to geocode postcodes of mills/destinations outside of Scotland. Obviously the resolution is more coarse, but for the purposes of the study this was deemed suitable.
1 Geocode – Geocoding is the creation of an X, Y co-ordinate for an object based upon another location reference. In terms of this study a post code could be referenced against the OS PAF to find the centroid of the post code district. As 6 figure post code districts commonly
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Attribute / Additional data
A variety of additional data was input to the GIS to complete the framework data.
- Approved, consultation and excluded routes. Where available these routes provided by the Forestry Commission, were input to the digitised to use the Traffic Manager data set and input to the GIS. These form part of the project network
- Port Locations. The locations of ports used by the Timber industry were geocoded and added to the GIS as point features. In addition, where available the capacity of each was added at this stage.
- Railhead locations. The locations of railheads within Scotland were geocoded and added to the GIS as point features. In addition the capacity of each was input at this stage
- Forest districts were digitised to form polygon features (regions).
- Origin points for all timber were located using X, Y co-ordinates and are contained within the GIS
- Destinations of all mills were geocoded and located within the GIS
- Total forest cover within Scotland is incorporated to the GIS.
The use of these data sets is outlined within the following section, GIS methodology.
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3.3 GIS methodology: Project Networks, analysis and final routings
The following methodology can be followed in the future to perform similar types of analysis on timber flows, or indeed other types of freight movements on various modes of transport.
The outline of the methodology is as follows:
1. Set up framework data
2. Geocoding, digitising etc.
3. Set up the project network for Road, Rail and Sea, including costs
4. Import Origin / Destination and tonnage data
5. Perform Network Analysis on the project network and Origin/Destinations
6. Take compiled routes and append the data to the relevant road links within the OSCAR / Strategi data sets
7. Quality Assurance, using thematic mapping and visual checking
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1. Set up framework data
As outlined in the previous section the GIS uses a variety of data sets as a framework for other data to be applied to. In this stage the data is procured, converted and checked for accuracy. Data sets are logged into a metadata control register to ensure that the data used in the GIS can be traced to where it came from and what is contained within a particular data set.
2. Geocoding, digitising etc.
This stage involves the geocoding of data that has been provided in a postcode or different location referencing system to the one used. Digitisation of additional routes to those available within the GIS was also undertaken. The data sets used for the project network required to be in the same format as the OSCAR traffic manager, and for the purposes of network analysis meet the correct links.
Before digitising After digitising
As demonstrated above, some data sets are provided in a different format, or have been digitised at a different scale to the ones used for this study. Without redigitising data to ensure that the networks are complete, the network analysis could not operate correctly, nor would it use links that are not fully correctly placed on the network.
3. Setting up the Project Network
For the purposes of this study only certain types of road and types of transport have been included. The project network is the network that results from the removal of all network elements that are not relevant to the study. This includes removing all minor roads (except agreed or consultation routes as provided to the consultants) and unclassified roads. If this full data set were to be used at this scale of study, the analysis would be unnecessarily complex and likely to result in inaccurate conclusions. The project network consists of three elements:
1. Road network: this contains all Motorways, A Trunk, A roads, B roads, agreed and consultation routes.
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2. Rail network: this contains the entire rail network for the UK. In addition potential routes that may reopen in the long term were included for 2010 and 2015 analysis.
3. Sea network: this comprises a network that links together all of the sea ports that may be used for timber freight.
Route costing - Road
In order to carry out network analysis and identify the most likely route that would be taken by a haulier, some logical assumptions need to be made. At a strategic level, a ‘cost weighting’ (not an actual cost of road haulage), as in was applied to different categories of route. In terms of the road network this is extremely important. Without applying a costing to different types of route, all routes taken would be the shortest, regardless of the type of road they are using, which would be far from reality. The following cost weightings were applied for this study:
Type Cost
Motorways and Dual Carriageways 1.5 Units / mile
Trunk Roads 3 Units / mile
A Roads 5 Units / mile
B Roads, Approved and Consultation routes 10 Units / mile
These costs are based upon the relative significance of using the different types of route. It is possible to alter these for any part of the project network, thus altering the way freight moves around the network.
Route costing – Rail
No route costing has been applied to rail. It is assumed that once freight reaches a source railhead for transportation by rail it takes the shortest route to the destination railhead.
Route costing – Sea
As there was no necessity to define the cost weightings of using different shipping lanes, no cost routing has been applied for sea freight.
Route Capacity
At this stage in the methodology route capacities are applied to the project network. In terms of the network itself different types of road have been given different capacities. This data is
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used in the final analysis of the total tonnage carried on a road (a result of the analysis) and the capacity (which is input at this stage). For example all roads that are over/under/x percent over capacity can be readily identified. For the purposes of this strategic study, roads have been applied capacities based upon the type of road (i.e. A road, B road, etc.), however this can, (and is highly likely to be) altered relatively easily for any local analysis.
4. Import Origin and Destination data
At this stage in the methodology the origin, destination and tonnage data was input to the GIS. As the origin, destination and tonnage data is processed and analysed within a Microsoft Excel-based model, it was straightforward to import the results using .dbf import methods within ArcView. The data is imported from Excel as a separate data set for each scenario. Throughout the rest of the analysis each scenario is dealt with and processed separately, but still using the same framework and project network data sets. The data is mapped and then assessed for quality. At this stage it is imperative that the data is correct as the analysis immediately following it is extremely intensive.
Upon insertion of the data to the GIS, the data required is prepared for network analysis. Essentially, the network analysis component of the methodology is the part that provides the initial foundation for the capacity analysis results.
5. Perform Network Analyses
The network analysis component of the GIS uses ESRI Network Analyst to provide the functionality required to create routes based upon the project network. A number of scripts were developed during this stage of the methodology to automate the process of running network analyst on every origin, to every destination. The application takes each origin in turn and then creates a route to each destination that it serves. The route is based upon the project network, and uses a ‘least cost’ algorithm. Essentially this will create the route that costs the lowest based upon the costs that were applied to the project network in stage 3 of this methodology. Using a number of scripts to automate this process, a separate data set of routes for each destination were created. Each route is related to a single origin to destination journey and has a tonnage applied to it that was imported from the Excel document.
6. Take compiled routes and append the data to the relevant road links within the OSCAR / Strategi data sets
The resulting data sets produced by the network analysis are based upon the project network, but don’t provide the data on a link by link basis, simply for the entire route. This is demonstrated in the diagram below:
1 Route
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Link 1 Link 2 Link 3
The top diagram shows the route. As a result from network analyst this is a single line which is related to a single record within the GIS database. It will have a tonnage applied to it. The lower diagram shows an example of OS OSCAR Traffic Manager links. In this example 3 links comprise the route. They may also form part of another route and therefore need the tonnage from the route applied to each link that forms part of it.
In order to make sure that the data is applied to the OSCAR links, the OSCAR links were converted into points created at the centroid of each line. A spatial function which appends data from one object to another where they intersects was applied to take the tonnage data from a route and place it on the correct OSCAR points. These points were then converted back to links in the OSCAR data set and presented as lines. This process involves in excess of 50,000 routes, and over 300,000 route links. In order to improve efficiency a number of scripts were used to automate the ArcView commands to achieve this. This stage of the method is the most processor intensive, depending on the number of routes and road network involved each scenario can take over 4 days processing time.
8. Quality Assurance, using thematic mapping and visual checking
Quality assurance forms the final part of the methodology. At this stage thematic maps can be produced that easily identify if the coverage of the tonnage on the OSCAR data set is the same as the extent of the routes that use the network. Also, by manually checking a random set of routes from the excel spreadsheet through to the output of the GIS, any suspect data can be identified.
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Road project network, overview
Road network: national level used for timber flow analysis
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Agreed and excluded timber routes example
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Local road network example with timber exit points
Road Network: Local Level With C/Unclassified Routes for Future Analysis
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4. IDENTIFYING KEY BARRIERS
4.1 Scenarios: application of demand to network capacities
In assessing the demand for transport infrastructure in order that barriers could be identified at the strategic scale of the study, the timeline ‘snapshots’ of demand and supply at 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015 were supplemented by three Scenarios which took account of Demand, Supply and Infrastructure variables.
These scenarios were discussed with industry representatives at the working meeting in April 2001. These Neutral, ‘Industry-Plus’ and Pessimistic Scenarios were applied to the road, rail and coastal shipping infrastructure, adjusting the quantitative variables described in the previous section of the report.
The effect of the industry consultation, combined with the team’s review of the divergent demand survey and supply forecast tonnages, was to:
• Reduce the greatest possible demand in an original ‘Optimistic’ Scenario to a level around half of the growth in supply-based forecasts, termed the 'Industry-Plus' Scenario
• Take on board industry’s basic concerns over rail service quality and price: this
o Reduced the potential tonnage which could in future be captured by rail
o Focused on those destination processors which could justify direct or close rail connections
o Emphasised substantial (25,000 tonnes p.a.) guaranteed tonnages on individual corridors and in general, with transits of 100 miles plus, unless even larger point-to point volumes were likely
The assumptions used are those put in place for the purposes of this study. They are not definitive and forecast constraining, but rather reflect a set of variables which can in future be adjusted to take account of other scenarios.
The scenario components used are summarised overleaf. The transport demand implications within the scenarios meant that the negative set had little discernible divergence from the neutral in transport tonnage terms, and did not justify the separate running of the GIS analysis to assess what was an almost no-change scenario from present day conditions. For example, the negative assumption that rail would become uncompetitive overall, and see its tonnage shift to road, produced no major measurable increase in road traffic on the affected corridors. This reflected its current small 2% mode share, the dispersed nature of its sources, and the
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absence of major capacity constraints on the trunk road haul routes which would receive former rail-borne timber.
The capacity measures were estimated, through the modelling analysis, to result in a best achievable modal shift from the present 95%:3%:2% Road:Sea:Rail timber tonnage shares to 77%:9%:14% by 2015. Absolute road tonnage, whilst stabilizing in 2010, is still envisaged to be above its current level, even within the ‘Industry-Plus’ scenario.
The mode shares are not arbitrary percentages applied across the board to the scenarios and timelines of the study.
They are derived from the analysis of every one of the 57 destinations, and within these, every one of the corridors between the source Forest District and plant, based on a range of volume, distance, connectability assumptions for each mode. For each year in the timeline, there are therefore 3,078 individual mode share assumptions that make up the final tonnages, or over 12,300 for each full scenario. The final percentage shares are simply a reflection of these very detailed tonnage/share assumptions and there is therefore, in this approach, no 'right' or 'reasonable' mode shares for any one scenario - 11% or 14% for rail, for example.
We now turn to the identification of the barriers by individual mode.
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Summary of Scenarios and components
Scenarios: Demand
A. TIMBER DEMAND: ‘Neutral’ (industry ‘Negative’ Scenario ‘’Industry-Plus’ Model Variables and forecasts) Scenario Scenario adjustments
1. Processors capacity trends Processor capacity Some processor capacity Substantial processor capacity (paper, board and sawmills) investment to increase investment, but insufficient to soak investment, some in new sectors,. Individual processor flow demand demand by end of decade, up forecast supply of softwood. Strong demand and substantial and overall tonnages adjustable. with consolidation in certain Sawmilling sector demand remains scale economies encourage new sectors, esp. sawmilling flat. procurement approaches and focus on large trunk hauls.
2. Imported timber Imports remain strong in Relaxation of regulations leads to Imports remain stable but growing sawn timber but roundwood import penetration of roundwood demand from sawmills lead to % of imports across sectors for paper and board sectors markets, in addition to strong sawn reversal of import penetration, adjustable. remains largely Scottish- products import penetration. overseas suppliers shares fall. supplied
3. Recycling and the potential Some shift to recycling by Large scale recycling adopted by Recycling becomes less attractive for substitution major plants distant form major board/paper processors, as price and transport costs % of recycling in paper and board Scottish sources but depressing demand for almost all improve, encouraging return to sectors adjustable. insufficient to dent Scottish softwood. long-haul sourcing from Scotland demand/supply increase. and supplementing already strong domestic market share for Scottish softwood
Scenarios: Supply
B. TIMBER SUPPLY: ‘Neutral’ (industry ‘Negative’ Scenario ‘‘’Industry-Plus’ Model Variables and forecasts) Scenario Scenario adjustments
1. Total Scottish softwood Rising of output to 50% of Demand grows only within 10-15% Demand, with some new plant supply/availability supply growth of 10M pa by range over decade, leading to capacity outstrips supply in short Total output from growers 2015 short-term over-supply. term. Growers unlock reserved adjustable, but only from data supplies as demand and prices source providers direct. improve.
2. Softwood prices and trends Prices stable with Market glut depresses Scottish Prices stabilise and increase in real processor demand growth softwood prices even further in terms, tracking but still short of the Not explicitly part of model, but meeting growers’ short term, only bottoming out at growth in processor capacity. supply/demand match calculated low levels when demand/supply and capable of being derived stabilises. subsequently.
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Scenarios: Infrastructure
C. INFRASTRUCTURE: ‘Neutral’ (industry ‘Negative’ Scenario ‘‘’Industry-Plus’ Model Variables and forecasts) Scenario Scenario adjustments
1. Road infrastructure Major strategic links Major strategic links unfinished, with Major strategic links completed, with investment to clear bottlenecks upgrades follow national limited capital budgets. Local enhanced capital budgets and with New capacity adjustable at GIS programmes. Local forest maintenance remains area of timber-specific requirements level of expertise. road initiatives unlock concern, burden remains with LAs. identified. Local maintenance ring- bottlenecks, but local public Forest roads investment has to be fenced and linked to timber-specific roads issues unresolved. industry-funded. impacts. Forest roads investment public- industry partnership funded, in light of growth in demand beyond forecasts.
2. Rail infrastructure and service Rail share remains low but Service shortfalls and uncompetitive New terminals and equipment. issues - can they measure up? with specific breakthroughs price reduces rail to all but core Some intra-Scottish movements New capacity adjustable at GIS in Anglo-Scottish trunk volume hauls. With limited new become price and service level of expertise. hauls. With limited new investment, shrinking equipment competitive. Additional rail freight appropriate railhead and availability reduces rail’s flexibility service providers add to competition equipment investment, intra- further. Even substantial subsidy and keep prices attractive even with Scottish movements remain can’t close the price gap. growing market share. dominated by road.
3. Ports capacity and the role for Coastal shipping builds on Coastal shipping remains confined Coastal shipping breaks out of expanding coastal shipping fledgling markets and to core specialist markets and established markets and corridors New capacity adjustable at GIS corridors. Limited small corridors (road-inaccessible with new solutions, enhancing back level of expertise. ports capacity leads to harvesting areas and line-of route loading potential. Possible new expansion of ‘hubbing’ west coast locations) processor capacity sites with operations on Clyde/Argyll specific coastal shipping model to other areas, e.g. requirements at core. Lochaber.
Scenarios: demand comparisons
300%
sawlogs supply f'cast 250% sawlogs 'Industry-Plus' scenario
200% sawlogs industry 'neutral' scenario roundwood supply f'cast 150% roundwood 'Industry-Plus' scenario roundwood industry 'neutral' 100% scenario all softwood supply f'cast
50% all softwood 'Industry-Plus' scenario all softwood industry 'neutral' 0% scenario 2000 2005 2010 2015
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4.2 Road network capacity assumptions
We recognised at an early stage in the study that the road mode presents the most complex issues in identifying capacity barriers. Within a strategic study of this nature, it was not feasible to identify the heavy goods vehicle capacity, let alone that for timber by road, for all of the 300,000 road links within the network, onto which over 80,000 permutations of timber routing were applied.
However it was deemed important that the mapping exercise identify if possible, the areas of shortfall, but which would require further substantial analysis at a local level. Our approach was to take the project network and apply known broad vehicle capacities for each type of four levels within the road hierarchy:
• Motorway & Dual Carriageway
• A trunk
• Other A single carriageway
• B, C and feeder roads, including current and TTG consultative routes
In practical terms, this made the analytical task achievable within timescale and resources of the study. The team do of course recognise that in practical terms there is a wide variation in design and available capacity within these categories. The levels of the hierarchy chosen reflected the balance of analysis required for timber-specific flows.
At the top of the hierarchy it made more sense to combine dual carriageways and motorways in the capacity analysis, using a typical low-capacity four-lane, A90, rather than a 6-lane, hard shoulder M74 standard. On the strategic routes to many harvesting areas, there are wide variations in seasonal levels and mix of traffic, and the distinction between single and dual carriageway sections (such as on the A9) is a crucial one.
At the next stages down, we dispensed with using a single trunk road classification for capacity, which encompasses such a range of road types and capacities as to be almost meaningless: new wide single carriageway sections of the A7 can hardly be compared with single-track sections of trunk road, which still serve large parts of the harvesting areas of Lochaber and Wester Ross.
We used a trunk and non-trunk A-road distinction, but even this was less than ideal, given the variations in design capacity even within these road types.
B-level and below were combined in a single category, using a low-end design capacity assumption and relatively high current usage assumption, to produce a limited capacity availability for this group of roads.
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These assumptions are summarised in the table:
Road network timber capacity assumptions
Maximum acceptable Typical Maximum HGV Typical Typical HGV acceptable HGV tonnage Remaining Remaining HGV Typical Vehicle Typical Annual proportion proportion (not Typical HGV (not design CLASS HGV Capacity Capacity Flow Flow of vehicles design capacity) tonnage capacity)
tonnes p.a. loads p.a. p. day p.a. % % tonnes p.a. tonnes p.a. M & DUAL 1,149,750 44,221 45,000 16,425,000 18% 25% 2,956,500 4,106,250 A TRUNK SINGLE 365,000 14,038 20,000 7,300,000 15% 20% 1,095,000 1,460,000 A NON-TRUNK SINGLE 273,750 10,529 15,000 5,475,000 10% 15% 547,500 821,250 B & BELOW + APPROVED DIGITISED 58,400 2,246 4,000 1,460,000 6% 10% 87,600 146,000
AVE PAYLOAD (t) 26
The net effect of these assumptions was to produce a manageable project network for analysis but which may:
• Under-emphasise the capacity available on large capacity section of motorway and grade-separated dual carriageways, such as the M74 south of jct 12 or the A720
• Over-emphasise capacity on non-trunk A roads, many of which may have a design capacity closer to the B-road level used, such as the A837 and A864
• Somewhat mask the very limited design capacity of some of the C and unclassified roads included in the project network
These are important considerations in future development of the modelling tool. We return to this issue in the conclusions to the study.
The analysis then took a straight allocation of the remaining HGV capacity on each category of route and measured how far this capacity was effectively ‘used up’ by timber movements over the 15-year timeline and for each scenario. It did not make assumptions about the remaining non-timber HGV capacity rates of growth, as this would have introduced, we believe, thoroughly forecast traffic levels into a coarse-grained capacity analysis. We focused on the likely contribution of timber movements to tightening HGV capacity, and as described below, identified that some of this capacity was accounted for entirely by timber by 2015.
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Road Project Network Capacities
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The outputs from this part of the analysis should therefore be regarded as a guide to road capacity constraints rather than a definitive list. The Road Project Network Capacities map provides an indicative view of the capacity measurements at several parts of the 300,000+ links on the network. The key findings in relation to road barriers were that:
• At motorway/dual carriageway level, timber takes up only very minor share of HGV capacity, and does not in general appear to be a major issue
• No significant capacity issue appeared on single carriageway trunk roads, but with a greater proportion of capacity accounted for by timber than motorway/dual carriageways, detailed analysis is necessary to confirm that there are not significant local capacity shortfalls
• Non-trunk single carriageways appeared not to have any significant capacity issue, but the very constrained nature of some A road design capacities means that there are likely to be local capacity shortfalls not identified at this level of analysis
• Further down the hierarchy, an apparent capacity issue at B/C level emerged in source areas, especially in the Borders, Dumfries and Galloway and at some large mill sites
It should however be borne in mind that the road timber volumes are still below the levels they would be if based on the growers-survey tonnages. This is not to say that there is not a major and growing issue at a local level, when plainly there is already, but that capacity problems may be worst, even beyond the 2015 horizon. Local capacity assumptions and analysis are needed to confirm this strategic picture, in a Local Area Modelling Assessment (LAMA).
Alongside new road capacity, maintenance issues may also have a bearing on the actual present day capacity of certain roads, regardless of design capacity. No capacity assumptions were input to the model in terms of maintenance regimes, but the ability exists to incorporate these at a later date and therefore to better test real-life conditions.
The current GIS analysis of vehicle numbers, volume and tonne-miles does however provide a good starting point for the Scottish Executive and individual Local Authorities to assess the level of maintenance expenditure on known road types and its relationship to forecast volumes of timber from this study.
Further fine-tuning of the model’s capacity assumptions would enable local assessment to be undertaken for comparison of current and future road types (for example open-textured routes to supplement and replace current roads within intensely-worked harvesting areas).
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4.3 Sea network capacity
Sea freight, accounting for only 3% of the total volume of Scottish of timber through a handful of ports, could in theory have presented a relatively straightforward analytical task. It is the case that the complexity of the network is considerably less than that of road. We were however concerned that in future, the widest range of possible ports serving harvesting areas and destination plants should be available for assessment, even if the majority of them are not likely to be used in the short to medium term.
No standard measurement of port capacity for timber exists, and the team was conscious of the views expressed by the industry regarding limitations on road access to ports as well as the facilities themselves. It was concluded that road access to ports would not become a component of port capacity but could in future be modelled in detailed local analysis.
With regard to port capacities directly, it was necessary to arrive at a capacity measurement that was capable of being expressed in the same units as the road and rail modes, i.e. tonnes per annum (tpa). From an examination of typical coastal shipping operations, it was concluded that the following measurements be used:
• Typical coastal payload units of 750t per vessel (for a vessel of around 1,000t)
• Typical loading and discharge windows of 24 hours for a full load
• A berth length and draught expressed in units of vessel size above
• Quayside storage expressed in payload units
Together these produced a typical annual throughput in tonnes p.a. for some 70 locations. Within this total were several minor ports that might be part of a triangulation movement based on a key port, such as Ayr or Corpach. These movements were incorporated into the GIS routing analysis.
The map overleaf describes the capacities of the ports in tonnes p.a.
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Map Sea project network capacities, 2015
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The key findings in relation to in sea freight were that:
• For major ports, the issue is one of strategy rather than capacity – are they actively seeking timber business? Many such facilities may be very much larger (such as former general cargo facilities such as King George V on the upper Clyde) and more specialised (such as Hunterston) than any theoretical timber movement demand might reach.
• Minor ports, such as Ardrishaig, may have a capacity pinch with storage rather than berthage. At many of these ports, loading and discharge must take place directly, if no quayside storage is available to allow better use of vessel and vehicle resources.
• Small ports capacity in more remote locations, such as the Ross of Mull or Raasay, is an issue. However the duration of such capacity barriers in areas of short-term harvesting, say 5-7 years, may be short-lived, and may not make substantial investment in berths or quayside storage worthwhile.
• Many, mostly small, specialised fishing ports are located relatively close to the timber sources in many locations. Such ports include Lochinver and Kinlochbervie in the North West Highlands and the string of small fishing ports on the Moray and Banffshire coasts and in Galloway. Without a substantial re-orientation away from their current core business, they are unlikely to provide much new timber handling capacity.
We would stress that local assessment of ports capacities is required, since the current assumptions were based on published port facilities or proposed enhancements communicated to the team by the port owner/operator. In many cases a port was excluded entirely because the current berths were entirely accounted for by intensive passenger services, such as Oban and Rothesay. As with the other modes of transport, the capability exists in the model for the comparison of port capacity enhancement, including increases in average vessel size or on-site storage in future.
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4.4 Rail network capacity
In our identification and analysis of rail infrastructure barriers we have focused on areas with a potential impact on key outputs of future rail service, namely:
• the traffic capacity of the rail network (its routes and railheads) in relation to potential demand for timber movement
• the degree of cost-effectiveness of rail operation permitted by route and railhead infrastructure constraints
• the service quality impact of constrained infrastructure
The study has broken new ground in analysis of rail data. Definitive route corridor information has been supplied by Railtrack Scotland (and somewhat less complete data from Railtrack North West), but detailed analysis of specific infrastructure barriers (including railhead issues) identified in the study would be required to assess in full the practical operational impacts and the costs and benefits of possible solutions.
Data on route capacity and current / future utilisation was supplied by Railtrack Scotland and this was assessed against current and projected future flows of timber by rail. It would appear that – with probably just one exception – all routes in Scotland will have spare capacity for timber traffic far in excess of the 'Industry-Plus' projections for rail market share up to 2010 (the limit of time horizon currently used by Railtrack).
Projected rail capacity for timber (tonnes pa)
Gateway name Gateway location 2005 2010
North of Mossend Cumbernauld / Mossend 12.8m 11.5m
West Highlands Glasgow / Mossend 4.1m 4.0m
Western Galloway Kilmarnock / Dumfries 0 0
West Coast Main Line Beattock / Carlisle 12.8m 9.6m
The key capacity-constrained route is from Kilmarnock through Dumfries to Carlisle, over which there is currently (in theory) no spare capacity for any additional passenger or freight trains, attributable largely to the recent high volume of Anglo-Scottish coal trains. Part of the route is single track, and the long length of individual ‘block sections’ (on which only one train can be accommodated at any one time) restricts the frequency of trains over double track sections of the route.
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While little timber traffic currently moves over this route, it has a potentially important role for flows from west and north Galloway, through proposed railheads such as Barrhill and other possible timber loading locations such as Dalmellington / Chalmerston and Cronberry.
The train payload on any given route can be governed by a number of factors, including gradients, and crossing loop lengths. Given Scotland’s railway geography and the widely varying standards to which different rail routes were originally constructed, therefore, there are significant variations of train payload from route to route..
Rail project network
Rail Network: Existing/Potential Railheads
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The key train payload constraints on the main route groups within Scotland are as follows:
• North of Mossend’, crossing loop lengths on the wholly or partially single-track lines from Perth to Inverness and from Aberdeen to Inverness typically constrain train payloads to around 600t
• the West Highland Line is characterised by very short crossing, such that the normal maximum train payload is only around 350t – with longer crossing loops payloads of over 600t could be achieved
• the Ayr-Stranraer line, serving potential railheads at Barrhill and/or Dalmellington/Chalmerston, is single-track with significant gradients, and is constrained to a train payload of around 575t in the case of Barrhill
• the West Coast Main Line is the key Anglo-Scottish rail freight artery and timber train payloads of around 850t can be achieved
Virtually all the railheads currently or recently used for timber traffic in Scotland have their origins in the Victorian era, and have had minimal investment in recent times, and consequently suffer to a varying extent from:
• short siding lengths relative to full train haulage capability
• lack of ‘run round’ facilities to enable sidings to be accessed from both the northbound and southbound directions
• lack of hardstanding and space for lorry manoeuvres and timber storage
• poor immediate road access, in terms of road width and community impact on adjoining residential areas
The Table of Railhead Capacity and Route Train Size Capacity (see Appendices) shows those railheads currently handling timber and a range of potential new railheads. It demonstrates the scope to increase capacity, but more crucially to improve the efficiency of train operations by matching railhead siding lengths to prevailing route maximum train length. In conclusion, while the operational quality and flexibility of existing railheads is generally unsatisfactory there is not yet a pressing need for railhead capacity increases, to secure either sufficient throughput capability and/or to take advantage of full trainload haulage capability.
Since the revival of rail transportation of timber in the early 1990s, virtually any rail location where active or mothballed general-user sidings are in situ has become a potential railhead for timber. It has therefore been feasible to develop timber loading facilities at a wide variety of locations on existing rail routes serving surrounding harvesting areas. However, two key harvesting areas are isolated from the rail network, as a result of route closures in the 1960s – central and southern Galloway and the Borders.
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Projected rail network capacity – 2015
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5. STRATEGIC RESPONSE TO BARRIERS
A strong undercurrent of concern in this study has been the potential for modal shift from road to sea and rail. From the industry’s view this concern is primarily about the best and most cost effective means of transporting timber from forest gate to primary processor. From the public sector perspective, the potential for meeting transportation and environmental policy objectives of containing, or even reversing timber road traffic growth is a key driver.
This section of the report has perhaps a stronger emphasis in the non-road modes than their present mode shares might suggest. Unlocking their individual characteristics (they have bespoke standards and operating systems not readily comparable to road transport) is in our view one of the keys to achieving modal shift. Often in the past, global assumptions have been made about the need and desirability of achieving modal shift, through broad price incentives or just by stating political targets. The reality of modal shift is often plant-by-plant or regional infrastructure solutions, which has been a cornerstone of our approach.
The resulting projection of mode shares may give some comfort to those who see sea and rail capital investment as offering a major solution to the industry’s needs. The key finding to bear in mind, however, is that absolute road-based timber tonnage by road appears set to grow well beyond its current levels. The only exception is the 2010 period when, if most of the rail connections can come on-stream, some containment of road traffic growth seems possible. The diagrams below confirm this position.
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Overall Mode shares and shifts 2000-15 (timber lifted per annum, in tonnes)
8,000,000
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
Rail 4,000,000 Sea Road
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0 2000 2005 2005 2010 2010 2015 2015 Neutral Neutral ‘Industry- Neutral ‘Industry- Neutral ‘Industry- Plus’ Plus’ Plus’
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Overall Mode shares and shifts 2000-15 (%share change of timber lifted per annum, in tonnes)
2015 Neutral
2010 Neutral
Rail 5-year share % change Sea 5-year share % change Road 5-year share % change
2005 Neutral
2000 Neutral
-8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0%
2015 Industry-Plus
2010 Industry-Plus
Rail 5-year share % change Sea 5-year share % change Road 5-year share % change
2005 Industry-Plus
2000 Neutral
-8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0%
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5.1 Road Capacity
The bulk of the current and future tonnage of timber is likely to remain on road for the 15-year horizon of this study. The complexity of modelling the entire road network in detail has imposed some limitations on the extent to which predicted road flows will reflect local circumstances on the ground.
Whilst it would be possible to generate a full theoretical listing of all major stress points and capacity shortfalls from the current model, we believe it is desirable to have in place a fully quantified capacity analysis at individual local authority level, utilizing known traffic counts and detailed assessments of conditions, together with the fine detail of future capital investment schemes, down to the level of lane width and junction capacities.
It would, in our view, be wiser for the industry to proceed to requesting roads investment packages based on regionally developed versions of the strategic modelling work to date - the previously mentioned Local Area Modelling Assessment (LAMA) The potential scope of such assessments are set out in the conclusions and recommendations of this report.
What can be said in relation to the capacity barriers which are emerging from the current analysis is that:
• At our A-single carriageway level in the model, some key location investments, to be quantified in future analysis, are highly likely. Our model suggests there may be possibly 20 or more such locations at this level by 2015. This number may grow considerably when the capacity limitations of single-track A-roads are fully taken into account.
• Capacity investment at B and C level will be widespread, and are key Local Authority issues, which in consultation with local Timber Transport Groups can be quantified when the model’s assumptions have been fine-tuned. Costs of upgrading cannot be quantified, although the current analysis suggests that up to 5% of the entire route mileage at this level could have a capacity shortfall which can be said to be directly timber-generated. However project-specific appraisals will be necessary, to determine whether this means that this proportion of the route mileage requires some kind of treatment (which is unlikely). These project appraisals would follow from the LAMA process.
• Local and unclassified road investment, although being pursued by individual timber transport groups, can be quantified through future LAMA work, now that the routing analysis can be undertaken at OSCAR Traffic Manager levels of resolution, but is a considerable task if tackled on a national basis.
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• In relation to road maintenance, timber-specific sums should be capable of being quantified by individual Local Authority areas, since a good approximation of actual tonne mileage is available for the modelling tool. The industry may wish to consider whether the use of this capability to lobby on maintenance funding is a priority.
The table below identifies the total timber tonnage generated at its maximum (2015 'Industry- Plus' broken down by local authority area.
Maximum Timber Demand tonnages
Road timber tonnage generated within each Local Authority area by 2015
tonnes p.a.
Dumfries and Galloway
Highland Borders
Aberdeenshire Stirling
Moray
Argyll and Bute South Ayrshire
Perth and Kinross Angus
North Ayrshire East Ayrshire
Fife South Lanarkshire
West Dumbartonshire
West Lothian City of Aberdeen
Falkirk (‘Industry-Plus’ Scenario) North Lanarkshire
East Lothian
0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000
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Road Network capacity analysis examples
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(‘Optimistic’ in legend = ‘Industry-Plus’ scenario)
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5.3 Sea Capacity
At the level of the Major Ports, most major investment is already underway unless others emerge over the 15-year study horizon which are project-specific. The prospect of a future large pulp mill with a coastal location has been mooted during the course of this study. It would generate a substantial requirement for coastal shipping timber infrastructure and possible deep sea facilities, and might have a bearing on the balance of investment at all of the smaller ports, when looked at in a strategic fashion. This is the only circumstance where the study suggests investment at the major ports specifically for domestic timber movements.
Further Small Ports investment in key areas, such as Kintyre and Cowal is envisaged, beyond that which has already taken place, if capacity shortfalls are to be avoided.
A major unknown in identifying capital sums for the upgrading of these is the extent to which marine structural engineering is required for new berths, rather than enhanced quayside storage. Structural work may be of the order of £3million per site and upwards, whereas storage for two vessel payloads may be as little as £1million per site at 4 locations, if Portavadie and Annan were included. The provision of additional berthage or storage may require a fuller investigation of the merits of concentrating investment on key ports, such as Campbeltown and Ardrishaig.
Against this background, alternative strategies to develop agreements for third-party access to specialised company ports such as Lochaline and Glensanda may reduce the requirement for capital investment in open ports.
Minor Ports investment in key areas of the West Highlands is envisaged. Quayside storage investment is as important as berthage, and may be a much more cost effective approach to enhancing capacity in the short-medium term.
If the equivalent of a single coastal vessel payload storage is provided at the 10 locations identified as having capacity shortfalls, a typical cost per port of £0.75million for hardstandings for stockpiles at current maximum height would suggest around £8Million of provision, excluding any major structural work. Individual engineering assessments are of course required at each site.
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5.4 Rail Capacity
From the analysis outlined in 4.4 above, it is clear that there are a number of infrastructure barriers to rail realising its full potential for cost-effective and high-quality movement of timber to primary processors. The scenarios examined envisage scope for a substantial increase in rail market share from its current low base, but only to a level of just under 20% of total tonnage.
While there is not a general route capacity problem on the Scottish rail network, there are a few critical pinchpoints, and typically these impact not just on potential timber flows but also on other rail freight traffic. The strategic response to route barriers will therefore need to be driven by a variety of private and public sector interests with a recognition of the synergies for various markets which can be secured through corridor-specific upgrades.
In the case of the Kilmarnock-Dumfries-Carlisle line there is widespread recognition in the rail industry and beyond that some kind of strategic response is likely to be required. However, given that much of the capacity problem results from substantial growth in rail- hauled imported coal – a relatively volatile sector where long-term planning may be difficult – the scale and nature of an appropriate response is less easy to identify. There is evidently a need for the private and public sectors (of which the timber industry would just be one part) to come together in a suitable forum to identify and evaluate the options with a view to reaching an agreed programme of investment.
It is clear that there a number of routes where train payloads are significantly constrained by train length limits. The worst case is the West Highland Line, where extension of one or more crossing loops to accommodate the maximum train weight haulage capability for the route would raise timber train payloads from around 350t to over 600t – a substantial benefit in terms of rail economics. An entirely new loop would cost £2m-£3m, while extension of one or more existing loops could cost of the order of £0.5m - £1m each.
There are a number of areas where current railheads are not optimally located and new railheads in different locations might be more appropriate to maximise rail capacity, cost- effectiveness and quality of service, and minimise community impact.
New railheads which could fill gaps in the existing network include:
• Dyce (planned new EWS multi-user railhead which could replace Inverurie)
• Dalmally (new timber railhead proposed by Argyll Timber Transport Group)
• Barrhill (new timber railhead proposed by Forest Enterprise)
• Cronberry (coal terminal on a new branch line in Ayrshire planned by Scottish Coal)
• Lockerbie (proposed new forest products railhead)
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There are a limited number of opportunities to connect (or re-connect) key volume processors to the existing rail network. These include Nexfor at Dalcross, and Egger at Barony.
Unlike route capacity and train payload upgrade prospects – where synergies with other commodity flows would be crucial to infrastructure development plans – the case for most railheads will depend largely or exclusively on timber traffic projections. In a number of locations, however, such as Scottish Coal sites in Ayrshire, there may be opportunities to realise cross-sector synergies, handling a variety of compatible commodities and thereby sharing capital and unit operating costs.
With regard to key gaps in the rail route network, the closure of the direct Dumfries- Stranraer railway in 1964 removed a potentially crucial stretch of infrastructure, since the line penetrated deep into the heart of current and future harvesting areas. There may be a medium to long term prospect of penetrating, at relatively modest capital cost, into the Dalbeattie area – virtually adjacent to the Howie Forest Products sawmill complex, which generates substantial demand for transport of sawlogs, sawn timber and co-products.
The potential for rail re-opening into the Borders has been well documented. Borders Transport Futures’ scheme for a South Borders Railway has been predicated on substantial potential for rail haulage of timber over a dedicated freight railway from Kielder, Riccarton Junction, Kershopefoot and Longtown to Gretna on the West Coast Main Line.
Our analysis has indicated that there is potential for rail to play a significant role in Scottish timber transport, well beyond its current niche business. It is clear that strategic investment in key infrastructure upgrades would in itself substantially improve the capacity, cost- effectiveness and quality of service of rail haulage on a number of crucially constrained routes. Public sector intervention in the form of grants in recognition of the environmental and other benefits of rail would be an essential element of any agreed investment programme, and the Strategic Rail Authority’s current evaluation of the economics of timber by rail should help to clarify the scale of intervention which would be needed to provide commercial viability.
Irrespective of which train operator or operators is involved, it will be important to create the right framework within which operators can work cost-effectively and flexibly across Scotland and to key markets. It may be appropriate for a partnership of shared interest (potentially including the rail industry, the forest products industry, Scottish Enterprise, the Scottish Executive and the Strategic Rail Authority) to underwrite the core elements of a strategic rail service, such as:
• route infrastructure upgrades
• railhead development an ‘open access’ fleet of modern high-capacity wagons
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5.4 Consultation
Consultation was undertaken with a wide range of key stakeholders, primarily at the following stages of the project on the demand side:
• through the end-users part of the survey process (including telephone and face-to- face interviews)
• industry-wide input through representation within the Client Group at principal project milestones (including sessions in Glasgow and Perth)
On the supply side, the TGA had a core role in the project, as did representatives from a variety of key sectors, including:
• road haulage
• rail service providers – in particular EWS and Freightliner
• the rail infrastructure provider, Railtrack
• the Strategic Rail Authority
• port infrastructure and shipping operators – in particular ABP and Clydeport
• shipping agents
• local authorities
• Joint Structure Plan Teams
• economic development agencies
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6. CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS
Conclusions
1. Our demand-led analysis indicates lower than expected total tonnages of timber than the supply-based industry forecasts have suggested to date.
2. Slower growth, even in ‘Industry-Plus’ Scenario, is envisaged, and the full peak, in timber transport terms, may occur beyond the 15-year study horizon of this study, but this will not postpone the immediate impact of growing road traffic tonnages.
3. However the short time horizon of processors’ demand forecasts is somewhat out of gear with the timescales for long-term investment in transport infrastructure investment.
4. This suggests that there is a need for better grower-processor dialogue in quantifying volumes, if a sound case is to be argued for transport infrastructure that rests on timber volumes.
5. Road network stress is apparent from the study analysis, especially regionally, and at a more local level, which detailed analysis through Local Area Modelling Assessment (LAMA) can locate.
6. Future local authority input is essential to further quantify road capacity assumptions, especially on the network below B level and in identifying firm capital investment costs on a project-by-project basis.
7. Our best estimates suggest that although there is a substantial potential for mode shift to sea and rail, but not enough to reduce absolute volumes moving by road. Even within the 'Industry-Plus' mode-shift scenario there is growth in timber HGV movements at almost every part of the road network over and above their current level.
8. There is therefore a role for mode shift in siphoning off part of the timber road traffic growth with selected investment. Given that most shifts are on flows on corridors to the major processors, there is a strong role for these processors in facilitating large secure volumes of timber.
9. Intra-plant co-products movements offer mode shift opportunities in the longer term and needs future investigation, mainly at major plant sites and in advance of new integrated plant investment.
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10. Selective infrastructure investment has been identified by the modelling work in relation to ports and rail facilities. Roads investment requirements are only identified in an indicative manner through the macro-scale analysis to date, and should be the subject of further local analysis with fine-tuning of the modelling tool, as early as possible.
11. There is a specific role for the public sector in facilitating multi-user railhead facilities, and in the funding of selected route infrastructure enhancements.
12. Key constrained rail routes which are likely to justify selected investment – in the event of Strategic Rail Authority financial support for a timber-by-rail network – are the Kilmarnock-Dumfries-Carlisle line and the West Highland Railway.
13. The precise definition of a robust network of timber source railheads in Scotland will depend on (i) the outcome of wider strategic discussions involving the public and private sectors at Scottish and British levels, and (ii) specific LAMA of the optimum locations to meet demand, supply and community requirements. A small number of destination mill re-connections to the rail network would be required to realise the 'Industry-Plus' rail market share projections.
14. Following the conclusion to this study, a Timber Logistics Project Manager, funded by Scottish Enterprise, Forestry Commission Scotland, Highlands & Islands Enterprise and NE England Forestry Action Group working in partnership with industry, is to be appointed. Reporting to the Timber Transport Forum, the manager will focus initially on developing timber transport solutions in northern Britain where Scottish Enterprise is funding research. This important practical step will provide means of taking forward several key areas for action arising from this current piece of work, principally:
o Agreeing, with the industry and public sector, the prioritization of further regional analysis
o Co-ordinating the Local Area Modelling Assessment (LAMA) process to achieve the regional detail required for widespread project-specific investment
o Taking forward the cases for investment in partnership with the industry
o Revising the timber Haulage Code of Practice
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Recommendations
1. The discrepancy between timber growers’ estimates of harvested timber and the demand levels generated by the study survey should be examined further, initially likely via the Timber Logistics Project Manager, although the scope of the full industry forecasts is somewhat wider than the postholder’s remit.
2. Given the importance of arriving at transport solutions based on sound forecasts of demand, updates of the current mills database should be implemented on at least an annual basis to a 15-year horizon. Early emphasis should be placed on:
o Surveying directly those firms whose timber tonnages were provide to Forest Enterprise and for whom forecasts had to be extrapolated
o Further assessment of future capacity proposals for individual plants and corporate groups, to refine the currently slow or nil growth perspective offered by most in this current study (so far as this can be achieved with confidentiality safeguards in place for the firms concerned)
o Likely demand in the 10-15 year horizon, a period where many of the firms in the current survey were somewhat vague, but when future transport infrastructure investment may come on-stream
3. Adding the North of England supply points and demand locations to the current model should close the ‘gap’ in the timber transport picture for the cross-Border area. This should be undertaken as a matter of urgency, since, as described in the report, the analysis of road capacity and the modal shift potential on the Scottish side of the border is incomplete without this data. Early soundings should be taken with the NE England Forestry Action Group, One North East and the North West Regional Development Agency, to define the scope of the area to be included.
4. The potential road network stress becoming apparent from this strategic study should be taken forward in regional and local analysis within the next twelve months, while the Logistics Project Manager is in post. Given that current pattern of problems emerging, it would make sense to focus on:
o A regional analysis in Dumfries and Galloway, with possible extensions to the Borders (if the N England data is in place) and South Ayrshire
o A comparative assessment with an area which has agreed timber transport routes already in place, such as Grampian
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5. Local Area Modelling Assessment (LAMA) of the above areas in all or part, require a further extension of the road project network to be in place, and ideally an agreed or at least draft agreed set of routes to be confirmed by the relevant Local Timber Transport Groups. For the LAMA process to work consistently within a national framework, on agreed set of road capacities for types of route should be agreed, in conjunction with the Timber Logistics Project Manager and relevant local authorities. These will further develop the assumptions in this strategic picture to types of route not fully analysed to date, such as:
o Single-track classified roads
o Unclassified roads at least two standards of capacity
o Port and railhead unclassified link roads
o Other potential routes, such as open-textured converted or newly- constructed routes
6. A mechanism should be established whereby local authorities (L.A.s) can feed their available information on road capacities for non-trunk roads into the regional and LAMA process. Early investigation should be undertaken of the options for utilizing the K-Map portal to allow L.A. to input this data directly to the GIS-based part of the model.
7. Given the strongest potential for modal shifts on flows to corridors to the major processors, a coordinated approach should be made by the development agencies (including SE and SRA) to identify the willingness of plants and firms who currently have a single-mode (road-only) capability, to consider the development of the sea and rail connections identified in this report.
8. The potential for modal shift will undoubtedly be strengthened if some degree of utilisation of the same sea and rail facilities for co-products movements can be achieved. In advance of new investment case being taken forward, the addition of co-products flows to the modelling tool should be considered.
9. The Timber Logistics Project Manager should have a an active role in several on- going issues identified in the course of the study:
o Taking forward the prioritized regional analysis
o Taking forward the Local Area Modelling Assessment (LAMA) process for project-specific investment
o Taking forward the cases for investment in partnership with the industry
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o Revising the timber Haulage Code of Practice
o Identifying Industry’s views on operating standards at sea and rail terminals, and their cost implications
o Articulating the linkage between the industry and local authorities on timber transport policy, including the LA updates of Local Transport Plans for their areas
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7. APPENDIX
Demand: Total Tonnages and mode shares tonnes per annum
TOTAL FORECAST TIMBER TONNAGES (p.a.) Neutral (Industry Survey View) ‘Industry-Plus’ 2000 Neutral 2005 Neutral 2010 Neutral 2015 Neutral 2000 Neutral 2005 ‘Industry-Plus’ 2010 ‘Industry-Plus’ 2015 ‘Industry-Plus’ Road 3,111,099 3,111,099 2,981,553 3,571,820 3,111,099 3,461,837 3,894,640 5,168,962 Sea 232,000 260,389 288,665 339,238 232,000 287,606 388,016 586,802 Rail 156,500 208,790 427,222 509,790 156,500 230,727 596,824 956,666 3,499,599 3,580,278 3,697,440 4,420,848 3,499,599 3,980,170 4,879,481 6,712,430
TOTAL FORECAST TIMBER MODE SHARES (by tonnes p.a.) Neutral (Industry Survey View) ‘Industry-Plus’ 2000 Neutral 2005 Neutral 2010 Neutral 2015 Neutral 2000 Neutral 2005 ‘Industry-Plus’ 2010 ‘Industry-Plus’ 2015 ‘Industry-Plus’ Road 5-year share % 88.9% 86.9% 80.6% 80.8% 88.9% 87.0% 79.8% 77.0% Sea 5-year share % 6.6% 7.3% 7.8% 7.7% 6.6% 7.2% 8.0% 8.7% Rail 5-year share % 4.5% 5.8% 11.6% 11.5% 4.5% 5.8% 12.2% 14.3%
Rail connection status of timber processors
Company Activity Rail Status P'code A. Wilson & Sons Ltd.(Ayrshire) sawmill No Link KA10 6DG A. Wilson & Sons Ltd.(West Argyll) sawmill No Link PA27 8DJ AW Jenkinson sawmill Proposed Link DG11 2SQ Barchards sawmill No Link HU14 3HF BSW-Boat of Garten sawmill No Link PH24 3BG BSW-Carlisle sawmill Connectable CA6 4BA BSW-Kilmallie sawmill Near Link PH33 7NH BSW-Newbridge on Wye sawmill Connectable LD2 3RU BSW-Senghenydd sawmill No Link CF83 4WD BSW-Petersmuir sawmill No Link EH41 4JR Callander James sawmill No Link FK2 7XU Cordiner James sawmill No Link AB31 5PY Cramb P.E. sawmill No Link FK8 3BG Direct Worktops sawmill No Link DH Dutko Sawmills sawmill No Link YO17 0SA Earnshaw sawmill No Link WF4 4JG Forest Garden PLC sawmill Proposed Link DG11 2SQ Gordons of Nairn sawmill Near Link IV12 5LT Hunter Wilson sawmill No Link DG16 5JL Irving Peter & Sons sawmill No Link LA6 2PE J.Jones & Sons-Aboyne sawmill No Link AB34 5PN J.Jones & Sons-Dumfries sawmill No Link DG1 3PH J.Jones & Sons-Kinnoir sawmill No Link AB54 7XY J.Jones & Sons-Kirriemuir sawmill No Link DD8 5PD J.Jones & Sons-Mosstodloch sawmill No Link IV32 7LH James Jones & Son - Lockerbie sawmill Proposed Link DG11 2SQ Kerr Timber Products sawmill No Link DG12 6SL Kingan James sawmill No Link DG2 8BY Law J&J sawmill No Link TD6 9JP Lockerbie Sawmills sawmill No Link DG11 1AB Lorn Sawmills sawmill No Link PA35 1HY Mair Alexander sawmill No Link KA11 5BQ McBlain T.K. sawmill No Link KA19 7QE Munro JDG sawmill No Link IV15 9RB Perthshire Timber sawmill No Link PH8 0HU Phillips sawmill No Link DD8 5NY Pontrilas Timber sawmill Near Link HR2 0BE R. Howie & Sons sawmill Connectable DG5 4PL Rammerscales sawmill No Link DG11 1LD Riding Sawmills Ltd. sawmill No Link G82 5NP Scott A & J of Wooperton sawmill No Link NE66 4XW Scott Timber sawmill No Link PH2 9RD Taylormade Timber Products sawmill No Link DH6 1PS Tulloch Timber(Nairn) Ltd. sawmill No Link IV12 5HY Walker Jeffrey sawmill No Link DN11 8QA Windymains Sawmill sawmill No Link EH36 5PA Arjjo Wiggins papermill Mothballed PH33 7NH Caledonian Paper Plc papermill Mothballed KA11 5AT Euroforest Whole Tree Chipping in-forest chipper Mothballed FK7 7BQ Egger (Barony) Ltd. boardmill Connectable KA18 2LL Egger (UK) Ltd. boardmill No Link NE46 4JS Iggesund Paperboard Ltd. boardmill No Link CA14 1JX Kronospan(board) boardmill Active LL14 5NT Kronospan (sawmill) sawmill Active LL14 5NT Nexfor Ltd Cowie (Caberboard) boardmill Mothballed FK7 7BQ Nexfor Ltd Dalcross (Sterlingboard) boardmill Connectable IV2 7JQ Shotton Paper UPM Kymenne boardmill Mothballed CH5 2LL Sonae (UK) Ltd boardmill Near Link L33 1AA
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Rail Capacity Technical Issues
Basis of analysis:
In our identification and analysis of rail infrastructure barriers we have focused on areas with a potential impact on key outputs of future rail service, namely:
• the traffic capacity of the rail network (its routes and railheads) in relation to potential demand for timber movement
• the degree of cost-effectiveness of rail operation permitted by route and railhead infrastructure constraints
• the service quality impact of constrained infrastructure
The sections of this report dealing with rail freight are longer and more detailed than might be expected for a mode whose maximum market share is projected to be under 15%. This arises from the very specific circumstances of rail freight:
• the entirety of the discrete Scottish rail network for timber transport could be analysed in this study, in contrast to the situation for the substantially larger road network
• in contrast to sea transport, where there are essentially no trunk infrastructure constraints, rail faces a variety of constraints both at railheads and on the rail routes themselves
• the technical and economic characteristics of the rail system are more complex than for road haulage or sea transport
• current rail infrastructure capabilities vary significantly from route to route, in many cases still reflecting a Victorian inheritance, as well as the direct impact of route geography such as line gradients
The following potentially constraining factors on rail capacity, cost-effectiveness and service quality were examined:
• route capacities (as measured by the number of spare train ‘paths’ available within the total timetable capacity of each individual route)
• train payloads, by route (the maximum train weight permitted by gradients and / or other route haulage constraints such as length of crossing loops)
• route axleloads (the maximum gross weight per wagon axle permitted over track and structures)
• route loading gauge (the maximum dimension, usually height, of intermodal container permitted through tunnels and overbridges)
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• railheads (the capacity of existing railheads and the degree of match of siding lengths with optimum train size)
• network gaps (parts of the existing rail route network without strategically placed timber railheads, and key harvesting areas remote from the existing rail network)
A key point to be noted in assessing the potential price and service capability of rail is that railheads and routes geared to the operation of the maximum length of train will normally offer significant advantages over smaller-scale wagonload movements since, where commensurate volumes of timber traffic are on offer, minimisation or avoidance of shunting and intermediate re-marshalling of wagons will facilitate:
• lower unit costs
• faster transits
• more reliable transits
• better utilisation of rolling stock (and consequent unit cost benefits)
Without seeking to minimise difficulties at EWS caused by past business management organisation and unsatisfactory communication with customers, there is no doubt that - volumes permitting - moves to dedicated timber trainload operation would make a significant difference to the price and quality of rail haulage.
The study has broken new ground in analysis of rail data. Definitive route corridor information has been supplied by Railtrack Scotland (and somewhat less complete data from Railtrack North West), but detailed analysis of specific infrastructure barriers (including railhead issues) identified in the study would be required to assess in full the practical operational impacts and the costs and benefits of possible solutions.
Non-constraining factors:
At an early stage of analysis it became apparent that one of the above factors – route axleloads – was unlikely to represent a significant constraining factor on rail capacity, cost- effectiveness and service quality for timber haulage in the foreseeable future.
The typical axleload weight for timber carried by rail ranges from 19t/20t (on 2-axle ‘OTA’ wagons, the predominant vehicle currently used) to 15t/16t (on bogie 4-axle ‘MBA’ wagons). Virtually none of the rail routes currently or potentially used for timber traffic have axleload limits below 19t / 20t. Any new routes would clearly have to be constructed to meet this minimum standard.
Constraining factors:
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A. Route loading gauge
While no timber currently moves by rail in intermodal containers, there may be niche opportunities for this load-carrying method in the future, since containerisation could offer potential advantages in areas such as speed of road-rail transfer, load tracking and scope for backloading, compared to the use of ‘conventional wagons’ such as the OTA and the MBA. The current rail network was therefore assessed in terms of its capability to handle 8’6” high ‘lograck’ containers, the maximum likely height of such equipment for timber in the foreseeable future.
The only rail route in Scotland currently used for timber traffic which is not officially cleared for 8’6” high containers is the Crianlarich-Oban branch of the West Highland Line – however virtually all the road overbridges are on the Oban side of the proposed Dalmally railhead and would therefore not represent a constraint on timber traffic to the south from this location.
The only other potential timber routes not cleared for 8’6” are the Hunterston/Largs branch line and over the Forth Bridge. Except in the case of the Forth Bridge, the absence of loading gauge clearance indicates that none of the freight train operating companies have officially requested 8’6” container clearance for specific traffic flows on these routes, as opposed to there necessarily being any practical height constraints imposed by overbridges or tunnels.
South of the Border the final sections of route leading from Wrexham to Shotton Paper and Kronospan at Chirk are not cleared for 8’6”. Again, the absence of loading gauge clearance may well indicate that none of the freight train operating companies have officially requested container clearance for specific traffic flows on these routes, as opposed to there necessarily being any practical height constraints imposed by overbridges or tunnels.
It may therefore be concluded that route loading gauge is likely to be only a marginal constraint on rail haulage (with consequential capital cost implications), and only in the event of timber flows over these routes requiring to move in containers rather than the conventional wagons currently used.
B. Route capacities
Data on route capacity and current / future utilisation was supplied by Railtrack Scotland and this was assessed against current and projected future flows of timber by rail. It would appear that – with probably just one exception – all routes in Scotland will have spare capacity for timber traffic far in excess of the 'Industry-Plus' projections for rail market share up to 2010 (the limit of time horizon currently used by Railtrack).
However, a general distinction needs to be made between theoretical route capacities and practical capacity in day-to-day operating conditions. EWS have advised that there is a
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specific problem between Aberdeen and Dundee (the route for timber traffic from Huntly and Inverurie). While in theory only 4 out of the capacity of 9 train paths per hour in each direction are actually utilised by passenger and freight trains, when higher speed passenger trains (Virgin / GNER) are running in this section then securing a path for slower-moving freight train can be problematic, since most of the ‘refuge’ loops on the route are significantly shorter than the 37 wagon maximum train length of the main running lines.
The various rail routes used by current and potential timber traffic have been grouped geographically to assess the likely impact at key ‘gateways’ where these flows approach the Mossend hub or the key West Coast Main Line route. The table below (and map on Page 54) shows the notional additional timber capacity (tonnes per annum) based on projected spare train paths at these gateways to the south in 2005 and 2010:
Projected rail capacity for timber (tonnes pa)
Gateway name Gateway location 2005 2010
North of Mossend Cumbernauld / Mossend 12.8m 11.5m
West Highlands Glasgow / Mossend 4.1m 4.0m
Western Galloway Kilmarnock / Dumfries 0 0
West Coast Main Line Beattock / Carlisle 12.8m 9.6m
Virtually all passenger traffic growth on Scottish ‘timber routes’ (except the West Coast Main Line) is expected to be accommodated by longer trains as opposed to more frequent trains, and industry projections for general freight traffic growth (80% more by 2010) still leave substantial theoretical quantities of spare train paths throughout the network for more timber.
The key exception is the route from Kilmarnock through Dumfries to Carlisle, over which there is currently (in theory) no spare capacity for any additional passenger or freight trains, attributable largely to the recent high volume of Anglo-Scottish coal trains. Part of the route is single track, and the long length of individual ‘block sections’ (on which only one train can be accommodated at any one time) restricts the frequency of trains over double track sections of the route.
While little timber traffic currently moves over this route, it has a potentially important role for flows from west and north Galloway, through proposed railheads such as Barrhill and other possible timber loading locations such as Dalmellington / Chalmerston and Cronberry.
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The only other location where there is route capacity pressure is in terms of operational flexibility in and around Mossend Yard, which is the hub for EWS timber train services in Scotland. However this is being tackled by Railtrack, and if timber volumes by rail grow significantly, then an increasing proportion of the traffic should be able to move in full trainloads direct from source railhead to destination railhead (or rail hub close to destination) without the need for intermediate remarshalling at Mossend.
Given that current rail movements are almost entirely to destinations in England and Wales, and that these long hauls are likely to remain rail’s key area of opportunity in the longer term, it is important to recognise that infrastructure constraints South of the Border can have a significant impact on the economics of rail flows from Scotland. While Railtrack North West Zone were unable to provide full details of route capacity and operational constraints within the timescale of the study, it is known that there is a significant capacity problem over the 10 mile single-track route section between Chester and Wrexham which has to be traversed by all timber traffic destined for Kronospan and Shotton Paper.
C. Train payloads
The train payload on any given route can be governed by a number of factors, including gradients, and crossing loop lengths. Given Scotland’s railway geography and the widely varying standards to which different rail routes were originally constructed, therefore, there are significant variations of train payload from route to route.
In general, however, payloads are significantly higher than 5 years ago, following the introduction by EWS of the more powerful Class 66 diesel locomotives on virtually every ‘timber route’ in Scotland. The principal constraint on train haulage capability is now the length limit imposed by signal spacing and crossing loop lengths.
For every existing or potential timber railhead analysed in the scenarios for this study (see Map of Existing and Potential Railheads) – with the single exception of Thornton, which is constrained by a weight limit on the Forth Bridge – it is the route length limit which is the key constraint on running bigger trains. The Table of Railhead Capacity and Route Train Size Capacity) (specifically the far right column) demonstrates the extent to which an increase in length limit to the maximum train haulage capability of the Class 66 locomotive would increase the theoretical annual throughput capacity per railhead (assuming one train daily from each railhead, operating 5 days a week and 50 weeks a year). In practice, all timber railheads currently have spare capacity, and therefore in the short-to-medium term the key benefit of bigger trains would be in the reduced unit costs arising from higher train payloads.
Much of the timber traffic on rail in Scotland moves as part of ‘general user’ Enterprise trains, but for the purposes of this study – and bearing in mind the potential cost and service benefits
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of running dedicated timber trainloads, as harvesting volumes grow and rail mode share increases – we have made payload calculations based on the assumption of timber-only trains. The key train payload constraints on the main route groups within Scotland are as follows:
• ‘North of Mossend’, crossing loop lengths on the wholly or partially single-track lines from Perth to Inverness and from Aberdeen to Inverness typically constrain train payloads to around 600t – less than route weight limits would allow if loops were longer – while from Perth to Mossend payloads of around 850t are achievable on this double-track and easily-graded section
• the West Highland Line is characterised by very short crossing loops compared to Perth-Inverness and Aberdeen-Inverness, such that the normal maximum train payload is only around 350t, except when trains are run at night (avoiding the need to cross passenger trains) – with longer crossing loops daytime payloads of over 600t could be achieved
• the Ayr-Stranraer line, serving potential railheads at Barrhill and/or Dalmellington/Chalmerston, is single-track with significant gradients, and is constrained to a train payload of around 575t in the case of Barrhill
• the West Coast Main Line is the key Anglo-Scottish rail freight artery and timber train payloads of around 850t can be achieved
While the inherent constraints of varying route geography will continue to prevent a standard maximum train payload being achievable across Scotland, it is clear that there is scope for infrastructure improvements on a route-by-route basis to secure bigger train sizes – thereby improving the economics of rail haulage relative to road. A minimum standard of 25 OTA wagons (or 575t payload) may however be achievable across Scotland without substantial capital investment.
It is likely that only a limited number of small-scale improvements could be justified in purely commercial terms, since timber traffic on rail is at present understood to be only marginal profitable. Availability of grants such as the Freight Facilities Grant scheme, the Track Access Grant scheme (both administered by the Scottish Executive) and possible new commodity- specific ‘company-neutral’ grants from the Strategic Rail Authority could enable a variety of strategic investments to take place, provided that they can be justified by environmental and other public interest benefits. The SRA is currently examining the economics of timber by rail, and their conclusions will have a key bearing on prospects for increased market share.
South of the Border, it is known that a variety of infrastructure constraints at Wrexham / Chirk / Gobowen (including loop lengths and level crossing and signal locations) limit the
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timber payload of trains to Kronospan or Shotton Paper to a maximum of around 600t, considerably lower than the maximum weight capability of the overall route from the Warrington hub on the West Coast Main Line.
D. Railheads – at sources
Virtually all the railheads currently or recently used for timber traffic in Scotland have their origins in the Victorian era, and have had minimal investment in recent times, and consequently suffer to a varying extent from:
• short siding lengths relative to full train haulage capability
• lack of ‘run round’ facilities to enable sidings to be accessed from both the northbound and southbound directions
• lack of hardstanding and space for lorry manoeuvres and timber storage
• poor immediate road access, in terms of road width and community impact on adjoining residential areas
This study has necessarily had to focus on the key quantitative issue of siding capacity, and from data supplied by EWS it is clear that a number of important existing railheads (either currently used or with scope for future use for timber) could be constrained in terms of cost- effective operation by siding lengths which are shorter than the prevailing maximum train lengths which can operate on the routes concerned. This constraint of course comes into play only where rail has sufficient timber business to operate full dedicated trains of this commodity from each railhead – a situation which does not arise at present, but which would arise if rail mode share increases and total harvesting volume increases.
The Table of Railhead Capacity and Route Train Size Capacity (on Page 51) shows those railheads currently handling timber and a range of potential new railheads. It demonstrates the scope to increase capacity, but more crucially to improve the efficiency of train operations by matching railhead siding lengths to prevailing route maximum train length. A number of railheads stand out as having significantly shorter siding length than the route train length limit, including Inverness, Huntly and Stirling, but in these cases the railhead capacity is well in excess of the projected volumes of timber to be handled in 2001-2002.
In conclusion, therefore, while the operational quality and flexibility of existing railheads is generally unsatisfactory there is not yet a pressing need for railhead capacity increases, to secure either sufficient throughput capability and/or to take advantage of full trainload haulage capability.
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However, railhead design remains in need of attention, and it is likely that in terms of both micro-location and macro-location, the optimum sites for a network of strategic timber railheads will in at least some cases not be at existing locations but instead should be at sites which have most or all of the following attributes:
• proximity to key harvesting areas
• proximity to key trunk and other feeder roads
• avoidance of residential locations either adjacent to railhead or beside feeder roads
• adjacent to existing main line rail connections
• ability to be serviced by rail from both northbound and southbound directions
• sufficient length to accommodate full trainloads and minimise shunting
• space and hardstanding for storage and lorry manoeuvres
The Map of Existing and Potential Railheads (Page 47) shows the project network developed for the purposes of this study analysis, using the assumptions and scenarios applied within the timeline of the study. This does not represent the limit of potential railheads for a future strategic timber network, nor does it imply that as many railheads as shown should constitute such a network. Additional and / or different railhead locations can be used for alternative scenarios in future runs of the model, and the potential relevance of many of these locations is summarised in Section 5.2 on Strategic Responses to Barriers – Rail Capacity.
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Table of Railhead Capacity and Route Train Size Capacity
A B C D E F G H I J Railhead sdg OTA sdg route additional total forecast current total route potential capacity timber length capacity new timber timber additional weight additional (active) capacity limit per tpa from available sdg sdg spare limit per capacity tpa tpa train – sdg sdg volume spare capacity train (up to from route (potential) no. of increase to capacity tpa capacity tpa after max length limit OTAs route limit tpa 2001 -02 tpa sdg current Sc increase to (length / length length limit route weight weight*) increase of limit / 37OTAs) – maximum no. of current Sc OTAs length limit (37 OTAs) Kinbrace 26 149,500 26 0 149,500 12,000 137,500 137,500 32 34,500 Inverness 20 115,000 26 34,500 149,500 0 115,000 149,500 32 34,500 Huntly 23 132,250 26 17,250 149,500 5,000 127,250 144,500 37 63,250 Inverurie 26 149,500 26 0 149,500 10,000 139,500 139,500 37 63,250 Perth 26 149,500 37 63,250 212,750 5,000 144,500 207,750 37 0 Stirling 12 69,000 37 143,750 212,750 7,000 62,000 205,750 37 0 Ft William 17 97,750 15 0 97,750 5,000 92,750 92,750 27 69,000 Crianlarich 17 97,750 15 0 97,750 10,000 87,750 87,750 28 74,750 Taynuilt 17 97,750 15 0 97,750 1,900 95,850 95,850 25 57,500 Arrochar 15 86,250 15 0 86,250 14,000 72,250 72,250 28 74,750 Law Jct 7 40,250 37 172,500 212,750 5,000 35,250 207,750 37 0 Beattock 26 149,500 37 63,250 212,750 139,500 10,000 73,250 37 0 Carlisle 26 149,500 37 63,250 212,750 48,000 101,500 164,750 37 0
Lairg 14 80,500 26 69,000 149,500 0 80,500 149,500 32 34,500 Kyle 15 86,250 18 17,250 103,500 0 86,250 103,500 25 40,250 Elgin 26 149,500 26 0 149,500 0 149,500 149,500 32 34,500 Laurencekirk 12 69,000 37 143,750 212,750 0 69,000 212,750 37 0 Thornton 26 149,500 37 *46,000 195,500 0 149,500 195,500 34 0 Rannoch 6 34,500 15 51,750 86,250 0 34,500 86,250 27 69,000
Dalmellington 0 0 27 155,250 155,250 0 0 155,250 37 57,500 Barrhill 0 0 25 143,750 143,750 0 0 143,750 29 23,000
Chirk 26 149,500 30 23,000 172,250 149,500 0 23,000 37 40,250
Notes: Railhead names in italics are potential timber railheads.
Calculations in columns D and J are based on 1 train daily x 23t payload per OTA x 5 days pw x 50 weeks pa.
The only case in which the key route constraint is weight rather than length is for Thornton – caused by Forth Bridge weight limit.
In Column I, route weight limits for railheads showing 37 OTAs are in practice higher, but the assumption has been made that the maximum Scottish route length limit of 37 OTAs equivalent (as on the West Coast Main Line) is the practical limit for timber traffic.
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E. Railheads – at destinations
(i) Current regular timber traffic by rail from Scotland overwhelmingly moves to just three locations:
• Kronospan at Chirk, with its own private siding, by far the biggest single destination
• Pontrilas Timber (near the Welsh Border, south of Hereford), adjacent to rail sidings
• Iggesund Paper at Workington, where final delivery over public roads is required from the Workington rail freight depot
Detailed analysis of the capacity and quality of these railheads is beyond the scope of this study, but it is known that the Kronospan have plans to relocate and extend the current rail sidings to enable trains longer than 26 wagons to be handled, and to avoid operations in the log yard having to be halted while the train is discharged.
(ii) Rail-connected sites that do not currently handle timber by rail include the following:
• Nexfor at Cowie, where the rail connection to the main line is intact but much of the siding facility has been built over
• UPM Kymmene at Irvine, where timber handling sidings are intact but regular rail traffic is restricted to china clay and paper
• Shotton Paper at Shotton, which formerly handled substantial quantities of roundwood from Scotland by train, and where the sidings remain in situ
• Sonae at Knowsley, where the adjacent Potter Group distribution terminal has recently been rail-connected
F. Gaps in the rail route network
Since the revival of rail transportation of timber in the early 1990s, virtually any rail location where active or mothballed general-user sidings are in situ has become a potential railhead for timber. In macro terms therefore (as opposed to micro issues such as immediate road access and proximity of residential properties) it has been feasible to develop timber loading facilities at a wide variety of locations on existing rail routes serving surrounding harvesting areas.
However, two key harvesting areas are isolated from the rail network, as a result of route closures in the 1960s:
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• central and southern Galloway – ie those areas where line-of-route to English and Welsh destinations broadly involves road vehicles heading in the opposite direction to the proposed railhead at Barrhill, which is located in western Galloway, and has a circuitous rail route northwards and eastwards before heading south
• the Borders – both harvesting areas in the north west Borders west of the proposed North Borders Railway from Galashiels to Edinburgh and in the southern Borders along the route of the proposed South Borders Railway from Kielder and Riccarton to Gretna
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Projected rail network capacity – 2015
Rail Capacity
From the analysis outlined in above, it is clear that there are a number of infrastructure barriers to rail realising its full potential for cost-effective and high-quality movement of timber to primary processors. The scenarios examined envisage scope for a substantial increase in rail market share from its current low base, but only to a level of under 15% of total tonnage. The response to strategic barriers will therefore have to be carefully prioritised, designed to target investment towards areas and flows which offer the best returns in terms of commercial and public interest benefits. In general this will mean volume movements to key long-haul destinations, primarily in England and Wales, although niche opportunities arise within Scotland in some scenarios.
While there is not a general route capacity problem on the Scottish rail network, there are a few critical pinchpoints, and typically these impact not just on potential timber flows but also on other rail freight traffic and even on passenger trains (as in the case of the Kilmarnock- Dumfries-Carlisle railway). The strategic response to route barriers will therefore need to be driven by a variety of private and public sector interests with a recognition of the synergies for various markets which can be secured through corridor-specific upgrades.
Overlaid on the issue of route capacity is the more widespread problem of train payloads constrained by train length limitations, which are in turn due to infrastructure inadequacies such as short crossing loops. Again, given that much timber traffic in Scotland moves in general purpose multi-user trains, a strategic response to this constraint will need to embrace wider freight interests than timber alone.
It is already widely recognised that the quality and location of existing timber railheads is generally less than satisfactory. A strategic response – developing a core network of upgraded existing railheads and new purpose-built railheads – can be realised by the forest products industry in partnership with the rail industry and key public sector organisations such as Scottish Enterprise, the Scottish Executive, local authorities and the Strategic Rail Authority.
Filling gaps in the rail route network would involve generally substantial capital investment requiring the widest possible range of funding sources and consequently complex and time- consuming processes. A combination of substantial commercial and public interest benefits and fit-for-purpose construction standards are likely to be key to realisation of any significant new schemes.
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Route capacity
Two key route capacity problems have been identified in the analysis – the Kilmarnock- Dumfries-Carlisle line and the Dundee-Aberdeen line.
In the case of the Kilmarnock-Dumfries-Carlisle line there is widespread recognition in the rail industry and beyond that some kind of strategic response is likely to be required. However, given that much of the capacity problem results from substantial growth in rail-hauled imported coal – a relatively volatile sector where long-term planning may be difficult – the scale and nature of an appropriate response is less easy to identify. Railtrack’s 2000 Network Management Statement states that £20m would be needed to “upgrade capacity and speed”. There is evidently a need for the private and public sectors (of which the timber industry would just be one part) to come together in a suitable forum to identify and evaluate the options with a view to reaching an agreed programme of investment.
Given experience of the timescales involved in major rail development decisions this will not be an overnight process, and may inhibit ability to reach short to medium term decisions on strategic railhead development, such as the proposed Barrhill facility. While there is an alternative rail route to the south from Barrhill – albeit even more circuitously via Kilwinning, Paisley, Glasgow and Mossend – this itself is expected to be encountering significant capacity problems by 2005. The combination of these route constraints is one of the reasons why a possible re-opened rail route to a purpose-built railhead at Dalbeattie has been floated for consideration below.
In the case of the Dundee-Aberdeen line, rail freight transit times and reliability suffer from capacity problems caused by the lack of sufficiently long intermediate loops in which freight trains can be recessed to allow faster passenger trains to overtake. While relatively modest investment in one or two extended / new loops in the northbound and southbound directions (possibly of the order of £05m to £1m each) might be involved, the commercial benefits would be spread across a range of commodity flows, and such a scheme would almost certainly require public sector assistance.
Train payloads
It is clear that there a number of routes where train payloads are significantly constrained by train length limits.
The worst case is the West Highland Line, where extension of one or more crossing loops to accommodate the maximum train weight haulage capability for the route would raise timber train payloads from around 350t to over 600t – a substantial benefit in terms of rail economics. An entirely new loop would cost £2m-£3m, while extension of one or more existing loops could cost of the order of £0.5m - £1m each.
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Railtrack’s Network Management Statement lists West Highland loop extension as a potential project (or ‘Incremental Output Statement’) and it is also identified by the Strategic Rail Authority in its May 2001 Freight Strategy document.
Other routes where timber and other freight traffic could particularly benefit in train payload terms from extension of loops include:
• Huntly/Inverurie-Aberdeen-Dundee (from 600t to 850t)
• Inverness-Perth (from 600t to 750t)
Railheads
Railheads at sources:
There are a number of areas where current railheads are not optimally located and new railheads in different locations might be more appropriate to maximise rail capacity, cost- effectiveness and quality of service, and minimise community impact. These include:
• Inverurie (lorry access through town centre)
• Crianlarich (capacity-constrained, with difficult road access)
• Taynuilt (poor road access through residential area)
New railheads which could fill gaps in the existing network include:
• Dyce (planned new EWS multi-user railhead which could replace Inverurie)
• Dalmally (new timber railhead proposed by Argyll Timber Transport Group)
• Barrhill (new timber railhead proposed by Forest Enterprise)
• Cronberry (coal terminal on a new branch line in Ayrshire planned by Scottish Coal)
• Lockerbie (proposed new forest products railhead)
There are also non-timber railheads (ie those not currently handling timber) which could have a strategic or niche market role in various future scenarios. These include:
• Port of Ayr (the hub of the Timberlink shipping service, and a location where coal is currently handled by rail)
• Dalmellington / Chalmerston (a Scottish Coal location which is potentially well placed to serve Forest Enterprise and private sector harvesting areas)
• Rannoch (railway civil engineering sidings which could be upgraded to handle timber from Rannoch / the Barracks, thereby avoiding pressures on B roads to the south)
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• Oban (the railhead at the pier is well located for potential barge traffic from coastal and island locations poorly served by road)
• Mallaig (the railhead at the pier is well located for potential barge traffic from coastal and island locations poorly served by road)
• Laurencekirk (currently handling pipe traffic only, but well placed for Kincardine Forest District if sidings were upgraded)
• Kinbrace (not strictly speaking a railhead, but a location where EWS plan to undertake direct loading on the ‘main line’ during times where the track section is not occupied by the infrequent (only 8 trains in total daily) timetabled service
• Hexham (possible synergies at a railhead handling inward roundwood for Egger and outward roundwood / sawlogs from Kielder and the southern fringes of the Scottish Borders)
Railheads at destinations:
There are a limited number of opportunities to connect (or re-connect) key volume processors to the existing rail network. These include:
• Nexfor at Dalcross, adjacent to the Aberdeen-Inverness railway, and formerly rail- connected
• Egger at Barony, a formerly rail-connected site (when a colliery) less than two miles from the Kilmarnock-Dumfries-Carlisle line
Railhead strategy:
It is highly unlikely that even in the most optimistic of scenarios there would be a commercial and public interest case for a network comprising all the existing and potential timber railheads listed above. An evaluation of the costs and benefits of different network options would be required before an agreed programme of upgraded / new railheads could be considered for investment.
Unlike route capacity and train payload upgrade prospects – where synergies with other commodity flows would be crucial to infrastructure development plans – the case for most railheads will depend largely or exclusively on timber traffic projections. In a number of locations, however, such as Scottish Coal sites in Ayrshire, there may be opportunities to realise cross-sector synergies, handling a variety of compatible commodities and thereby sharing capital and unit operating costs.
Gaps in the rail route network
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(i) Central and southern Galloway:
The closure of the direct Dumfries-Stranraer railway in 1964 removed a potentially key stretch of infrastructure, since the line penetrated deep into the heart of current and future harvesting areas.
The re-opening of the route has been mooted on a number of occasions over the last decade (principally by Dumfries & Galloway Council), with long-haul UK and European freight traffic to and from the Stranraer / Cairnryan ferries seen as the key justification.
While much of the solum of the route survives as forest roads, walkways or simply undeveloped green space, there are key blockages in the Dalbeattie and Castle Douglas areas which could necessitate an entirely new line-of-route. While potentially feasible in the longer term, such a major new route construction project is only ever likely to be justified by guaranteed traffic potential from ferry business as well as timber traffic.
However, there may be a medium to long term prospect of penetrating into south east Galloway (in the Dalbeattie area) at relatively modest capital cost. The first two miles of the former through route are due to re-open to an oil terminal at Maxwelltown in 2002, and rails are still intact over the next mile to the Dupont (formerly ICI) plastics factory at Drungans. A further 10 miles beyond Drungans is relatively unobstructed, taking the route to the eastern side of Dalbeattie, virtually adjacent to the Howie Forest Products sawmill complex, which generates substantial demand for transport of sawlogs, sawn timber and co-products.
While the proposed Barrhill railhead is clearly well placed for key harvesting areas of western Galloway, there are some potential disadvantages which point to the possible merits of a Dalbeattie railhead for central and southern Galloway. These include:
• the need for timber lorries from central Galloway to run west to Barrhill, instead of east on line-of-route to destinations in England / Wales
• the circuitous rail route between Barrhill, Kilmarnock and Dumfries, heading north before east, then ultimately south
• rail capacity problems south of Kilmarnock
• likely lower train payloads on the route from Barrhill than would apply on a more easily graded re-opened route east and south from Dalbeattie
There are potential synergies at a railhead at Dalbeattie handling outward sawlogs and roundwood from central and southern Galloway, plus inward sawlogs and outwards co- products and sawn timber.
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An initiative in 1997-98 to develop a railhead for woodchip at Maxwelltown foundered on problems of container payload and the cost of a road feeder from Dalbeattie to the railhead – however, direct access to rail could significantly change the economics.
(ii) The Borders:
The potential for rail re-opening into the Borders (the largest UK region without a rail service) has been well documented. Borders Transport Futures’ scheme for a South Borders Railway has been predicated on substantial potential for rail haulage of timber over a dedicated freight railway from Kielder, Riccarton Junction, Kershopefoot and Longtown to Gretna on the West Coast Main Line.
With support from Freight Facilities Grant, rail is seen as a cost-effective means of alleviating the major impact of timber haulage on road maintenance in the area. Capital cost is estimated at around £20 million to provide a strategic link serving Scottish forests plus the adjacent Kielder Forest.
The North Borders Railway from Tweedbank and Galashiels to Edinburgh, which was conceived by BTF and is now also being promoted by Scottish Borders Council, is seen primarily as a passenger-carrying route, but it also has potential to carry some freight. The southern end of the route is well placed to serve harvesting areas to the west of Galashiels, and a potential timber railhead at Bowland has been incorporated in our longer-term analysis.
Developing a strategy for rail
Our analysis has indicated that there is potential for rail to play a significant role in Scottish timber transport, well beyond its current niche business. While the importance of rail business management organisation, customer service focus, information technology and other ‘soft’ issues cannot be underestimated, it is clear that strategic investment in key infrastructure upgrades would in itself substantially improve the capacity, cost-effectiveness and quality of service of rail haulage on a number of crucially constrained routes.
Public sector intervention in the form of grants in recognition of the environmental and other benefits of rail would be an essential element of any agreed investment programme, and the Strategic Rail Authority’s current evaluation of the economics of timber by rail should help to clarify the scale of intervention which would be needed to provide commercial viability.
The SRA’s Freight Strategy published in May 2001 highlights a number of potential infrastructure enhancements in Scotland (including upgrading the Kilmarnock-Dumfries- Carlisle railway, and loop lengthening on the West Highland Line) which could play a key part in improving the economics of timber by rail. The timber volumes potentially available to rail can help the SRA to achieve its national objective of 80% growth in rail freight by 2010.
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This study has made no assumption about which rail operator or operators might be involved in timber haulage. The present incumbent, EWS, has had its fair share of customer criticism over pricing and service quality problems, but insists that it is making significant progress. Freightliner is diversifying successfully into new markets, and has taken a keen interest in developing a strategy for timber on rail. GB Railfreight has also expressed interest in the timber market, and Direct Rail Services have recently successfully diversified into markets beyond their core nuclear business.
Irrespective of which operator or operators is involved, it will be important to create the right framework within which operators can work cost-effectively and flexibly across Scotland and to key markets. It may be appropriate for a partnership of shared interest (potentially including the rail industry, the forest products industry, Scottish Enterprise, the Scottish Executive and the Strategic Rail Authority) to underwrite the core elements of a strategic rail service, such as:
• route infrastructure upgrades
• railhead development
• an ‘open access’ fleet of modern high-capacity wagons (since the currently used OTAs / MBAs may not provide the optimum solution, and the OTAs are now in any event relatively old
There are a variety of potential options for rail (in terms of contractual arrangements, market share, network penetration, service frequency, the scope for handling of co-products, etc) and these need to be taken forward as an agreed strategy, within which individual infrastructure enhancement schemes can play an integral part.
In the case of route infrastructure in particular, if it is agreed that there is a commercial / public interest case to progress specific schemes in order to secure timber transport benefits, there will often also be a need to develop a wider case based on synergies with other rail freight and even passenger traffic. This clearly has implications in terms of commitment, timescales and management resources, and will require considered decisions on the potential prize that a bigger rail share of timber transport can offer to all involved.
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Future data management and analysis
Data issues
A number of issues have been identified as part of the course of this study, the key one revolving around the framework data used. It was identified that Ordnance Survey OSCAR Traffic Manager be the most suitable data set to use as the base data set for roads. This certainly provides the extent of network required in terms of approved routes, excluded routes, etc. and also provides a good platform for any local analysis. In terms of creating routes, due to the very detailed structure of the data set, dual carriageways are treated as separate roads (even though they are only different carriageways). This can cause problems in the routing of flows as inevitably some routes flow the incorrect way down a dual carriageway and at multi-carriageway junctions. This has been overcome in this study by combining all links that form part of a dual carriageway, resulting in them being treated as a single link (rather than two). In the future either directional information for these links will be required, or integration of a separate, less complex road data set for the dual carriageway links.
In terms of processing, due to the vast amount of data processed for each scenario, high specification computers are required. It is possible to upgrade to use Arc/INFO software (an industrial version of ArcView) as it is entirely compatible with the methodology and data that has been used to date.
Data Management and Versioning
It is important that following this study all data created is controlled carefully. This can be achieved using a version control system. A system such as Microsoft Source Safe can be installed on the server where GIS and excel files are stored and keep a control on their version number, and ensure that old versions are not overwritten.
If data is to be shared by a number of organisations or individuals, a version control system is essential. It is also extremely useful if updates are to be made to the data on an occasional basis.
In terms of physical data management, the total size of files used for this study is in excess of 300MB.
Future Analysis
The GIS methodology that has been adopted for this study is fully robust and can be used for analysing other ‘scenarios’ in order to carry out a ‘what if…’ type scenario.
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Over time, as with any system, processes become more efficient and new methods can be incorporated within the overall methodology to provide faster processing of data. It is important that potential methods for improving efficiency and increasing the accuracy of results are tested and incorporated into the system where necessary to ensure that it evolves with improvements in processing and GIS
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