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INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: the Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune Insider Poll

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INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: the Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune Insider Poll The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for the week of 16 January 2015 INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 16 January 2015 INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 16 January 2015 Will Scott Turner’s bid for speaker weaken or strengthen Speaker Joe Straus for this legislative session? • "Glenn Beck robo calls statewide for • "If you try to kill the king, you'd Scott Turner were of little help and better succeed." there seems to be a rising awareness that Straus maybe the only non • "Many members who were patient in this asylum." concerned about how much influence Empower Texans has, now know it's • "Every legislator voting for Straus very little." must now convince his constituents that he can accomplish the • "19 votes out of 150 - REALLY???? conservative agenda that he Those people need to take a basic campaigned on. That will be a math class if they are calling that a TOUGH road because Straus will 'mandate' on how the House conducts fight him every step of the way. One business. " lieutenant complained to me last week that he couldn't pass a bill because • "The Turner yes votes will galvanize another lieutenant talked against it on those members cred with their the floor. The majority of legislators then bowed to Straus to kill the bill." INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 16 January 2015 primary voters. It's always about • "Turner has 20 votes; he's not a politics. " factor." • "How many Republican votes does • "Scott's irrelevant. A nice, irrelevant one need to prove his support?" chump." • "With whom? House members? • "We'll know who voted how, and Strengthen. Tim Dunn et al.? Who once committee's are assigned, a cares? " message will be sent to the 84th Legislature." • "In the words of Henry Clay, enemy is the Senate." • "When Straus gets 130+ votes, it'll only strengthen his position." • "He did much better numerically with Republicans than his first • "Turner, call Gohmert " election as Speaker in 2009 when he only got 11 Republican votes." • "This demonstrates with clarity and certainty the limitations of Michael • "Turner did not have a cut dog's Quinn Sullivan's reach. Yes, he has chance." grass roots, a database built through numerous campaign organizations, • "Nothing like an election to measure but if Scott Turner's the best he can Straus' support" muster at the Capitol, he doesn't have much to fall back on." • "The Turner 'challenge' had about as much impact on Speaker Straus as • "Everyone knew he never stood a that bug that hit his car windshield chance so it is inconsequential." during his drive into Austin from San Antonio. " • "Stronger! Shooting at the bear and wounding him only makes him • "It will also strengthen the angry." Democrats. " When will House Speaker Joe Straus appoint committees? • "He's got to weigh all those IOUs • "The Usual: 4/430pm Friday Jan 30." and that takes a bit of time. He will penalize those who voted for him • "St. Patty's Day would be preferable, reluctantly and the 19 who voted but that just ain't gonna happen." against him. Sore winner!" • "Revenge is best served cold." • "Unlike the other chamber, the House under Straus has not been • "Patrick's appointments will likely notoriously slow on getting its come in January as there is a great committees out." deal of interest in actually getting the Legislature started earlier. But INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 16 January 2015 because Straus is so insulated, his • "What's the hurry?" team is unlikely aware of it and will continue to take their time about it • "End of January is my bet" ...annoying those who want to get to work. " If the Senate has a dozen committees this session, how many Democratic chairmen will Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick appoint? • "If he stiffs Whitmire then he will • "He better not cut out the Democrats have gorilla warfare on his hands." for as Bob Bullock discovered when he axed the Republican chairs, idle • "He must fulfill his campaign hands are the devil's workshop." promise." • "Only Whitmire" • "He'll let the chairs name subcommittees who may or may not • "He doesn't want to give the wily be Democrat. " Dems (I hear you laughing) too much time to get mischievous." • "More than 0, but not by much." • "I take the Lt. Governor at face value • "Whitmire & Lucio" when he states that the thinks republicans should chair all the • "You can have them pissing in or committees." out the tent. Patrick's call!" • "If only 12 committees, then only • "Go ahead tell the Dean of Senate Whitmire gets a chair. I think it likely and resident multi-issue policy expert there are a few more committees, and why he's not qualified to chair a that 2 Ds (Whitmire + 1) get a chair." committee. " • "Two of twelve. And they will be • "Lucio & Whitmire" crappy committees at that." Play pundit: What will be the biggest surprise when committee appointments are announced? • "See above." committee looks at 'reform' issues and 'savings.' All this is to say school • "The Senate will have a special vouchers will be the number one committee on education apart from its education priority for Patrick." standing committee. The special committee will be created to allow the • "I hope its that the Finance Chm is standing committee to handle its NOT Nelson." normal workload while the special INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 16 January 2015 • "Sen. Bettencourt named freshman • "Sen. That D's run major sub chairman" committee's. House: that committee's will be appointed before first of • "Could we see a Democrat chairing March. " Appropriations?" • "Whitmire will not chair anything" • "Repub primary voters will be SHOCKED that Dan Patrick actually • "Paul Bettencourt will chair and will appoint 2 Democratic chairs after serve as poster child for the Tough he PROMISED them than NO Nut Committee." Democrats would receive Chairmanships!" • "That the 19 who voted against Straus will have the temerity to whine • "Straus will appoint a Turner vote to about their committee assignments." a chairmanship. " • "A significant role for at least one • "Senate freshmen as chairs. " Democrat." • "Freshmen Senator wins • "The number of Sophomore House chairmanship!" members that are Committee Chairs." • "Patrick will find a way to have his • "Who of Turner's supporters get cake and eat it too. " good committees" • "Patrick will replace Nelson on • "Freshman Paul Bettencourt is NOT Finance." appointed to Chair Senate Education but is appointed to be a member of • "No Senate Democratic Chairmen" Senate Finance - the only freshman who will be appointed to the Finance • "Straus doesn't send the 19 to Siberia Committee." like past Speakers would have done." • "Seliger and Eltife won't have • "Speaker will appoint more D important committees" chairs. " • "That John Smithee will finally not • "That only Democrats want certain be the chair of insurance" committees." • "Make up of the committees" • "Senate Ed goes to the challenged member from sd25" • "Whitmire, West and Ellis getting Chairs" • "Hunter won't be at Calendars" • "No idea" • "Senate chairs will be solid policy people, not red-meat ideologues. " • "Debbie Riddle" • "Who believes they will get a Senate • "Scott Turner will chair the House chairmanship but doesn't." Committee on Trade with Ceylon." INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 16 January 2015 • "Don’t know" • "Jessica Farrar as chair of House Appropriations" • "Changes through consolidation and in jurisdiction of certain committees in • "Senate education" the Senate and relatively similar committees in the House." • "Number of democratic chairs" • "The biggest surprise will be that • "Sen. Hancock as Chair of B&C" there are no big surprises. Standard chairmen. They’ll move around a • "They're always a surprise." little, but same people. Same leadership. Boring will be the • "Todd Hunter" surprise" • "Strauss will look to weaken the tea • "House Chairmanships" party folks and anger MQS." • "Putting Huffman in charge of any • "Look for Austin's Kirk Watson to senate committee" make a play that will get him a Chairmanship, Austin, UT and • "Bettencourt to chair education ... Central Texas have too much to lose if wait no - retract that." he doesn't play well with others, including his former foe General • "That Patrick will appoint a Abbott. " Democrat (Whitmire)." • "New Calendars Chair" • "That some are going to be really bad" • "In the Senate, no D's as committee chairs or vice chairs. " • "Senate State Affairs" • "Democrats. Will chair a couple of • "Zerwas chairing Ways and Means" (irrelevant) committees" • "Lt. Governor Dan Patrick will lead • "No biggies.... some moves and the Senate in a surprisingly balanced fewer committees in the House...a few and fair manner." Chairs in the House will no longer be chairs" • "There won't be surprises in the Senate - Senators leak like an old • "Senate freshman chairs" boat." • "The biggest surprise will be the • "Dennis Bonnen gets Ways and enormity of the American economy Means. Yikes." entrusted to Senator Troy Fraser." • "Natural Resources in Both Houses" • "Kevin Eltife" • "Ignoring John Whitmire........." • "Who ends up serving as Vice-Chair of Finance" INSIDE INTELLIGENCE: The Texas Weekly/Texas Tribune insider poll for 16 January 2015 • "The number of Freshmen Senators • "None" as Chairmen" Our thanks to this week's participants: Gene Acuna, Cathie Adams, Brandon Aghamalian, Jennifer Ahrens, Brandon
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