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Interpretation of Cartridge Case Evidence Using IBIS and Bayesian Networks

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Interpretation of Cartridge Case Evidence Using IBIS and Bayesian Networks The author(s) below used Federal funds provided by the U.S. Department of Defense and prepared the following report: Document Title: Interpretation of Cartridge Case Evidence Using IBIS and Bayesian Networks Author(s): Keith B. Morris, Eric F. Law, Roger L. Jefferys, Elizabeth C. Dearth Document No.: 250387 Date Received at NCJRS: November 14, 2016 Cooperative Agreement Number: W911NF-12-2-0056 This report has not been published by the U.S. Department of Defense or the U.S. Department of Justice. To provide better customer service, NCJRS has made this federally funded grant report available electronically. The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the Army Research Office, the Defense Forensic Science Center, U.S. Department of Justice or the U.S. Government. Interpretation of cartridge case evidence using IBIS and Bayesian networks Keith B. Morris, Eric F. Law, Roger L. Jefferys, Elizabeth C. Dearth West Virginia University Department of Forensic & Investigative Science October 25, 2016 Table of contents Abstract ........................................................................................................................................... 6 Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 7 Best known non-matches and ROC curves ..................................................................................... 9 IBIS ............................................................................................................................................... 12 Bayesian networks ........................................................................................................................ 13 Basic network structures ........................................................................................................... 14 Serial nodes: 푨 → 푩 → 푪 .................................................................................................... 14 Converging nodes: 푨 → 푪 ← 푩 ............................................................................................ 15 Diverging nodes: 푨 ← 푩 → 푪 ............................................................................................. 15 Data Acquisition and Processing.................................................................................................. 16 Analytical Approach ..................................................................................................................... 19 What is a “match”? ...................................................................................................................... 21 Inter- and Intra-variability ........................................................................................................... 23 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................. 30 Sample size .................................................................................................................................... 30 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................. 33 Performance of 9mm firearms ...................................................................................................... 33 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................. 45 System performance studies .......................................................................................................... 46 Data analysis of IBIS breech face and firing pin scores ........................................................... 46 Repeatability.............................................................................................................................. 48 Reproducibility .......................................................................................................................... 49 Blind studies .............................................................................................................................. 53 Blind #1: ................................................................................................................................ 53 Blind #2: ................................................................................................................................ 56 Blind #3: ................................................................................................................................ 57 Blind #4: ................................................................................................................................ 58 Blind #5: ................................................................................................................................ 59 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................. 59 Page 1 Comparison ............................................................................................................................... 59 Set 1: ...................................................................................................................................... 60 Set 2: ...................................................................................................................................... 63 Set 3: ...................................................................................................................................... 66 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................. 69 Analysis of NIST standard cartridge cases ................................................................................... 70 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................. 74 Normalization study ...................................................................................................................... 74 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................. 99 Machine-learning of 9 mm data .................................................................................................. 100 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................... 103 Validation studies........................................................................................................................ 103 Data preparation ..................................................................................................................... 103 Validation procedure............................................................................................................... 105 Files created - splitting data frames ....................................................................................... 105 Creating Bayesian networks.................................................................................................... 108 Importing output data from Bayesian network into Excel - final Excel ........................... 109 Data analysis ........................................................................................................................... 109 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................... 111 2D and 3D IBIS study ................................................................................................................. 112 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................... 124 USACIL test set ........................................................................................................................... 125 Utilization of the AFTE Theory of Identification in the interpretation of IBIS results. .......... 125 Calculation of likelihood ratios............................................................................................... 128 U01 .......................................................................................................................................... 131 U02 .......................................................................................................................................... 134 U03 .......................................................................................................................................... 136 U04 .......................................................................................................................................... 138 U05 .......................................................................................................................................... 140 U06 .......................................................................................................................................... 141 U07 .......................................................................................................................................... 143 Page 2 U08 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