ONE CALL NOW State of the Storms: A Look into 2015’s Hurricane Predictions

Winds in excess of 252 km/hour. Intense storm surges. Life-threatening flooding. Mass devastation.

While hurricanes start when two powerful storms come together at sea, the effects can turn tragic when these whirling masses of air make . These tremendous storms have killed millions of people, wiping out entire communities and leaving behind them trails of damage and destruction. And with hurricane season well on its way, one may soon be coming to a coastline near you. Are you prepared for what might be headed your way?

A History of Hurricanes The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1st and runs through the end of November, according to the ’s National Hurricane Center. Hurricanes, which can have a diameter of up to 500 whopping miles, can only survive with water temperatures between the range of 75 and 80 degrees Fahrenheit. A convergence of surface winds caused by the rising of warm, moist air over the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Oceans during warm weather months leads to ripe conditions for hurricanes. While a hurricane can take days to form at sea, it can strike land in a swift, sudden act of unthinkable violence.

6450 Poe Avenue, Suite 500 • Dayton, OH 45414 • P: 877.698.3262 • onecallnow.com Consider . This awe-inspiring storm began to form over the Atlantic on August 24, 2005, and did not reach the coast until August 29th—a full five days later. During that time, the storm took on strength and structure, eventually leading to unprecedented destruction for areas of and when it made landfall as a Category 3 storm with winds close to 130 mph. According to FEMA, a total of 1,833 people lost their lives, and thousands more were displaced from their homes during Katrina. With a total estimated damage of $108 billion, the storm was declared by FEMA to be the “single most catastrophic natural disaster in U.S. history.” More than a century before Katrina, meanwhile, a Category 4 hurricane— now known as “The Great Storm” struck Galveston, , with a death toll as high as 12,000. A 15-foot high demolished the east, west, and south areas of the city as far as five blocks inland, according to NOAA. Will 2015 hold the next Katrina or “Great Storm” and will it be in your vicinity? Let’s take a closer look at the meteorological predictions for 2015, along with what these forecasts really mean.

What Lies Ahead The Weather Channel’s recently released forecast predicts that the number of named storms and hurricanes in 2015 will be less than historical averages for the Atlantic hurricane season. So what can we expect? A total of nine named storms and five hurricanes, including one major one—defined as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale—in the six months ahead, according to the Weather Channel Professional Division. This compares to a 30-year average of 12 named storms and six hurricanes, including three “major” Category 3-or-stronger hurricanes. The Weather Channel’s forecast echoes one from the Colorado State University (CSU) which anticipates a similar decline in hurricane activity, predicting seven named storms and three hurricanes, including one at Category 3 or stronger. How do meteorologists come to these conclusions? The Weather Channel Professional Division uses a combination of dynamic models and its own proprietary statistical models to make weather-related predictions. The CSU team, meanwhile, credits its forecast to an amalgam of 29 years’ worth of statistical predictors, along with comparisons to previous hurricane seasons with similar sea-level pressure and sea-surface temperature conditions.

6450 Poe Avenue, Suite 500 • Dayton, OH 45414 • P: 877.698.3262 • onecallnow.com What This Means For Your Organization Don’t start celebrating yet. While there may be fewer hurricanes in 2015, there is no meaningful correlation between the number of hurricanes and whether they’ll make U.S. landfall. Consider this -opening example: Last year, forecasters predicted a 17-year low in terms of number of storms. However, among these was the massive Hurricane Arthur, the mainland U.S.’s strongest hurricane to make landfall in six years. The season also featured two ferocious storms—the fierce and powerful — which hit one small region of Bermuda within the span of one week, wreaking twice the destruction and leaving area residents little time to recoup or recover in between. The takeaway? Even if predictions are correct, they don’t show the entire picture. Regardless of how many storms occur during the Atlantic hurricane season, the potential for mass catastrophe is more accurately determined by whether or not they hit the U.S. coast, and at what impact. Because of this, hurricane preparedness remains critically important regardless of forecasts that appear on the surface to be positive.

The Importance of Hurricane Preparedness We’ve all seen the images on the news: frantic homeowners taping windows and stocking up on sandbags. But you don’t have to wait until the storm is bearing down on you to take protective measures. In addition to making adequate internal and external modifications to homes and businesses, it’s also important to familiarize yourself with community hurricane evacuation routes to higher ground. Additionally, Ready.gov urges you to formulate a family communications plan, and to become part of FEMA’s National Preparedness Community by knowing your hazards.

The Role of Advanced Notification Technology Technology can also be a valuable asset when it comes to protecting members of your organization. While reaching everyone can be a serious challenge when time is of the essence, advancements in notification technology are changing our ability to keep people informed. Organizations can now deliver the latest weather-related alerts, scheduling changes and cancellations via each member’s preferred method of communication, thereby ensuring immediate and accurate access to critical information. This automated outreach not only spares valuable human resources, but also improves community safety and satisfaction.

6450 Poe Avenue, Suite 500 • Dayton, OH 45414 • P: 877.698.3262 • onecallnow.com One Call Now is America’s largest From high winds, flooding and structural collapses during storms to lingering unsafe conditions afterwards leading to everything from car message notification provider. accidents to downed power lines to heart attacks, hurricanes pose innumerable threats—both direct and indirect—to people and property every year. Perfect for schools, hospitals, businesses, churches and other Thousands of schools, businesses, organizations where communication is key, One Call Now’s innovative emergency alert system is designed to keep people connected during churches, and organizations across severe weather and other emergencies. With One Call Now, you can deliver timely and relevant automated warning messages via each the country rely on One Call Now recipient’s preferred language and choice of phone, email or text message delivery. Messages go out in mere minutes, but have lasting to improve and simplify their safety benefits for the people of your community. While science continually improves our ability to forecast catastrophic group’s communications—sending events like hurricanes, tropical storms, and other natural disasters, there’s no way to truly know the future. Don’t sit back and wait for the voice, text and email messages to inevitable to happen before taking essential planning and preventative measures. Instead, taking action now can ensure the safety and thousands of members wellbeing of your members with One Call Now. simultaneously. Founded in 2002, Source http://www.cnn.com/2013/08/23/us One Call Now has been listed hurricane-katrina-statistics-fast-facts/ http://www.stormsurge.noaa.gov/event_history_pre1930s.html on Inc. Magazine’s list of fastest growing privately held companies in America since 2008. When messages matter, we deliver.

6450 Poe Avenue, Suite 500 • Dayton, OH 45414 • P: 877.698.3262 • onecallnow.com