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Proliferation Security Initiative '14 U.S. Naval War College U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons Game Reports Reports & Studies 2014 Proliferation Security Initiative '14 Wargaming Department Stacey Auger Walter Berbrick Steve Burke Matthew Crook See next page for additional authors Follow this and additional works at: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/game-reports Recommended Citation Department, Wargaming; Auger, Stacey; Berbrick, Walter; Burke, Steve; Crook, Matthew; McKenna, Gary; Udhe, Jeff; and Winner, Andrew, "Proliferation Security Initiative '14" (2014). Game Reports. 1. https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/game-reports/1 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Reports & Studies at U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Game Reports by an authorized administrator of U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Authors Wargaming Department, Stacey Auger, Walter Berbrick, Steve Burke, Matthew Crook, Gary McKenna, Jeff Udhe, and Andrew Winner This article is available at U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/game- reports/1 U.S. Naval War College PSI 2014 Game Report TONE 2013 Facilitator Guide 23-27 September 1 About the Game Team Stacey Auger is a Lieutenant Commander in the U.S. Navy in the War Gaming Department at the U.S. Naval War College and Game Director for PSI 2014. Walter Berbrick is an Associate Professsor in the War Gaming Department at the U.S. Naval War College and Game Analyst for PSI 2014. Steve Burke is a Senior Military Analyst in the War Gaming Department at the U.S. Naval War College and Game Designer for PSI 2014. Matthew Crook is a Lieutenant Commander in the U.S. Navy in the War Gaming Department at the U.S. Naval War College and Game Analyst for PSI 2014. Gary McKenna is a Senior Intelligence Analyst in the Office of Naval Intelligence-Newport at the U.S. Naval War College and the Intelligence Lead for PSI 2014. Jeff Udhe is a Commander in the U.S. Navy in the War Gaming Department at the U.S. Naval War College and Game Developer for PSI 2014. Andrew Winner is the Chair of the Strategic Research Department and PSI 2014 Lead at the the U.S. Naval War College. Acknowledgements Postulated scenarios were formulated to generate useful analysis and discussion. The views expressed in this work and the game’s scenarios should not be inferred to represent expected or desired future conditions and do not represent the policy or position of the Naval War College, Department of the Navy, Department of the Defense, or any agency in the U.S. government. This work was cleared for public release; distribution is unlimited. U.S. NAVAL WAR COLLEGE Est. 1884 NEWPORT, RHODE ISLAND 686 Cushing Road Newport, Rhode Island 02841 www.usnwc.edu/wargaming2 Also search for us on Facebook and Twitter 20 June 2014 At the request of the Office of the Secretary of Defense, members of the Naval War College (NWC) Center for Naval Warfare Studies (CNWS), particularly from the War Gaming Department, Strategic Research Department, and Office of Naval Intelligence Detachment-Newport hosted the 2014 Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI) Operational Experts Group (OEG) Meeting and Game at the Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island, 13-15 May 2014. This report was prepared by the War Gaming Department faculty and documents the findings of these efforts. The War Gaming Department conducts high quality research, analysis, gaming, and education to support the Naval War College mission of preparing future maritime leaders and helping to shape key decisions on the future of the Navy. It strives to provide interested parties with intellectually honest analysis of complex problems using a wide range of research tools and analytical methodologies. The War Gaming Department is located within the Center for Naval Warfare Studies at the U.S. Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island. It was first established in 1887 by Lieutenant William McCarty-Little. Please direct any inquiries or comments to the game director, Lieutenant Commander Stacey Auger, at 401-841-6572 or [email protected]. David A. Della Volpe Chairman War Gaming Department U.S. Naval War College i INTENTIONALLY BLANK ii Table of Contents Executive Summary..................................................................................................................................................... E-1 I. Introduction .............................................................................................................................................................. 1 Statement of Sponsor’s Interest in this Topic ........................................................................................................... 1 Problem Statement ......................................................................................................................................................... 1 Purpose ............................................................................................................................................................................ 1 Objectives ........................................................................................................................................................................ 1 Research Questions ........................................................................................................................................................ 2 Identification of Independent and Dependent Variables ........................................................................................ 2 Definition of Key Terms ............................................................................................................................................... 2 II. Game Design ............................................................................................................................................................ 3 Overview of game design and mechanics .................................................................................................................. 3 Game Scenarios .............................................................................................................................................................. 5 Overarching Methodology and Analytic Framing .................................................................................................. 12 Participant Demographics........................................................................................................................................... 13 III. Analysis and Findings ..................................................................................................................................... 16 Overview ........................................................................................................................................................................ 16 Review of Key Cell Deliverables................................................................................................................................ 16 Country Team Results ............................................................................................................................................. 17 Functional Group Observations ........................................................................................................................... 30 Informing the Game Objectives ................................................................................................................................ 36 Beijing Convention .................................................................................................................................................. 36 Transit and Transshipment .................................................................................................................................... 38 Disposition and Liability ......................................................................................................................................... 39 Critical Capabilities and Practices.......................................................................................................................... 40 IV. Implications and Recommendations ......................................................................................................... 44 Limitations of Data Analysis ...................................................................................................................................... 49 Annex A: Game Templates ............................................................................................................................................. 51 Annex B: Individual Player Questionnaire ................................................................................................................... 54 Annex C: Facilitator Questions ...................................................................................................................................... 58 Annex D. Participant List ................................................................................................................................................ 65 Annex E: Fictional Country Background Information ............................................................................................... 69 Annex F: Treaty and Regime Matrix.............................................................................................................................. 78 Annex
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