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Delivering a Decade of Green Growth 2017 FOREWORD
For the green economy, the past decade has been one of historic success and rapid transformation, as well as frustrating setbacks and time-consuming delays.
It saw the energy market commence an industrial revolution that heralds the end of the fossil fuel age, as renewables costs plummeted and corporate giants embraced decarbonisation. It saw electric vehicles evolve from glorified golf buggies to ultra-desirable Teslas. And it saw world leaders commit to building a net zero emission economy, even as America put a climate sceptic in the White House.
If anything, the next decade promises to be even more eventful.
This year is the 10th anniversary of both BusinessGreen and Greenhouse PR, the specialist communications agency which supports businesses, entrepreneurs and campaigners who are working to create a green economy. To mark the occasion we have teamed up to speak to some of the sector’s leading pioneers, uncovering the lessons they have learned from this most exciting of decades and sneaking a glimpse of what the next ten years could bring.
From Christiana Figueres and Sir Ian Cheshire to Lord Stuart Rose and Sir Jonathon Porritt, we spoke with some of the political and business figures who have helped drive the emergence of a greener economy and establish the global low carbon transition as a mainstream concern.
Their insights were as varied as they were revelatory, but some trends emerged. All highlighted how the next decade will be critical to determining whether the world avoids the worst impacts of climate change, just as they stressed how deep decarbonisation is now fully compatible with economic goals. And they each provided some excellent investment tips.
But most of all, the pioneers of the green economy emphasised the message BusinessGreen has spent the past decade attempting to impart: the business community is absolutely critical to tackling the environmental challenges we all face.
Or, as Dr Emily Shuckburgh of the British Antarctic Survey put it when asked if the world could still avoid 2C of warming, “I have always said business is key to this - if the business community responds, we can do it”.
James Murray Editor-in-Chief of BusinessGreen
CONTENTS
1-2 Claire Perry 22-23 Lord Stuart Rose minister for Climate Change and Industry life peer and former chief executive of Marks & at the Department for Business Spencer
3-4 Christiana Figueres 24-25 Sir Ian Cheshire former executive secretary of the United chair of Debenhams and Barclays UK Nations Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and convenor of Mission 2020 26-27 Mark Campanale founder, Carbon Tracker Initiative 5-6 Lord Nicholas Stern chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment 28-29 Anna Guyer at the London School of Economics founder of Greenhouse PR
7-8 Josh Hardie 30-31 Andrew Howard deputy director-general for policy and head of sustainable research for ESG at campaigns at the CBI Schroders
9-10 Edward Mason 32-33 Caroline Hill head of responsible investment, Church head of sustainability at Landsec Commissioners, Church of England 34-35 Mike Barry 11-12 Dr Emily Shuckburgh director of sustainable business at Marks & climate scientist, British Antarctic Survey Spencer
13-14 Sir Jonathan Porritt 36-37 Roberta Barbieri founder and director of Forum for the vice president of Global Water and Future. Environmental Solutions at PepsiCo
15-16 James Thornton 38-39 Simon Boas Hoffmeyer founder and chief executive of ClientEarth sustainability director at Carlsberg
17-18 Lord Adair Turner 40-41 Bob Holycross chair of the Energy Transitions vice president of sustainability, environment Commission and safety engineering for Ford in Europe, Middle East and Africa 19 Sir Jeremy Leggett founder of Solar Century and Activist 42-43 Kate Wylie global sustainability Director at Mars 20-21 Juliet Davenport founder and chief Executive of Good 44-45 James Murray Energy editor-in-chief of BusinessGreen
The following interviews were carried out throughout August, September and October 2017.
CLAIRE PERRY
Where were you in 2007? What is your vision for the green economy in 10 years’ time and what In 2007, within six months, I do we need to get us there? went from being an at-home caregiver involved in various My vision, and that set out recently local environmental initiatives to a in the government’s Clean Growth policy adviser to the then-Shadow Strategy, is for a green economy that Claire Perry is Minister for Chancellor George Osborne. It was creates opportunities across the whole Climate Change and Industry an eventful year, but one that made country – new jobs, technologies and at the Department for Business, me especially conscious of the businesses – while cutting costs for Energy and Industrial Strategy. personal and societal opportunity consumers and contributing to our of getting women to return to the climate change targets. To make this Elected to Parliament in 2010 workforce after a career break. happen we need to build on Britain’s to represent the Devizes strengths in science and innovation - constituency in Wiltshire, she that is why we’ve committed £2.5bn to has previously served as We are living through a massive low carbon innovation. parliamentary private secretary, economic transformation a government whip, and rail minister. driven by decarbonisation. By focusing on clean growth, we are presented One of the most notable events Where do you expect to be in with a win-win situation. during her time as Climate 2027? Change Minister has been the launch of the long-awaited I have no idea where I will be in 2027. What will be the biggest changes Clean Growth Strategy, which I have never been one for life plans, from today’s world? sets out over 162 pages the but I hope to be still doing something government’s plans to deliver I love and doing my best to deliver It’s impossible to predict the deep decarbonisation across good results. I do expect it to be an technological breakthroughs that the UK economy. incredibly exciting decade though. could change the world over the next We are living through a massive decade, but it’s easier to see some of economic transformation driven by the areas where change is needed. decarbonisation. This year I think we’ve seen a real shift What is the most important lesson in attitudes to low emission vehicles you have learned over the past 10 and, with greater innovation from years? carmakers and continued investment in infrastructure, transport is one area I have three. that will look significantly different in 10 years’ time. Never say no to exploring an opportunity, no matter how unlikely it seems.
Say less and do more.
Love, family, friends and good health are the secret to a happy and productive life.
01 What top three sustainability If you could invest in one clean Are you optimistic or pessimistic challenges will be top of the technology through to 2027 which about the future? agenda in 2027? would it be and why? I’m optimistic. The UK should be very There will be big challenges in There is no magic bullet here. My proud of our record to date. decarbonising the way we heat our focus as a government minister homes, helping heavy industry go is on creating the best possible We were one of the first countries carbon light and ensuring energy is environment for low carbon to recognise both the economic and affordable. innovation and investment. security threats posed by rising sea levels and rising temperatures. But I think that part of the reason the As we’ve seen with offshore UK is considered a leader in tackling wind, the approach of allowing We have followed the guidance climate change is that we don’t just technologies to compete with provided by that scientific see these as problems to be solved, one another drives down costs for understanding with action. but as opportunities. consumers and has made the UK a global leader in Since 1990, we have cut emissions By focusing on clean growth, we are the sector. by more than 40 per cent while our presented with a win-win situation. economy has grown by two thirds We can cut the cost of energy, drive What advice would you give to a over that time. On a per person basis, economic growth, create high value sustainability professional starting this means that we have reduced jobs right across the UK and improve their job today? emissions faster than any other our quality of life. G7 nation. I’d like them to read our Clean Will the world be on course for Growth Strategy! We now have a great opportunity to two degrees? build on this progress. I recognise that government PwC’s recent Low Carbon Economy doesn’t have all the answers and Index, published last month, found can’t achieve all the changes that the UK and China are the only needed to create a truly green countries to have reduced their economy by itself. carbon intensity in line with the two degrees goal. I’d be really interested to hear the views of young people starting out The Paris Agreement marked a in the sustainability profession and clear turning point towards a low- hopefully to work with some of them, carbon future, but it is clear current as we introduce Green Great Britain commitments only take us Week next year to involve as many around halfway towards the two people as possible in tackling climate degrees goal. change and improving air quality.
One of the main ways Britain can help keep the world on course is by building on our existing strengths in green finance to ensure the investment is there to support countries in meeting their targets.
02 CHRISTIANA FIGUERES
Where were you in 2007? What is your vision for the green economy in 10 years’ time? I was living and working in Washington DC, working on climate My vision is that we will have a change and preparing for the world in which we have energy for Copenhagen summit of 2009. everyone, and emissions from no one. That we will have energy that is Christiana Figueres is the Where do you expect to be in clean, cheap, reliable and unlimited. former executive secretary of 2027? We will have transportation that is the United Nations Convention clean, efficient and shared. We will on Climate Change (UNFCCC). I expect to be back home in my have food security guaranteed for Assuming the role just after homeland of Costa Rica, living all. We will have the green economy the failed Copenhagen summit somewhere very close to the ocean. being the powerhouse, lifting the in 2009, she re-energised poor out of misery and contributing international enthusiasm for Impossible is not a fact, it to further development in climate action and was a key developing countries. broker of the Paris Agreement is merely an attitude. If any in 2015, a landmark treaty task is important enough What will be the biggest changes between almost every nation on there can never be a barrier from today’s world? Earth to take radical action to high enough to stop us from fight climate change. Well, the change towards clean achieving that task. With energy for sure, that is already Figueres now lives in London radical collaboration and underway. The change toward and is the convenor of Mission stubborn optimism everything electrified transportation, that is also 2020, a global initiative that that is important is possible. already underway. In addition, the seeks to ensure the world bends digitisation that we are seeing in so the curve on greenhouse gas many different industries will change emissions by 2020 in order to What is the most important lesson the way we interact with each other protect the most vulnerable from you have learned over the last and in fact will even change the the worst impacts of climate decade? meaning of work. change and usher in an era of I have learned that impossible is not stability and prosperity. a fact, it is merely an attitude. If any task is important enough there can In 2017 she received never be a barrier high enough to BusinessGreen’s Lifetime stop us from achieving that task. With Achievement Award. radical collaboration and stubborn optimism everything that is important is possible.
03 What top three sustainability Will the world be on course for Are you optimistic or pessimistic challenges will be top of the two degrees? about the future? agenda? Yes, I believe the world by 2027 will I’m optimistic, because I do feel that I believe that in the year 2027 we will be on course to stay below 2C. we will end up with a more secure, have three sustainability challenges. a more fair and a more stable world. Number one, water. Number two, If you could invest in one But that doesn’t mean that there is water. Number three, water. technology through to 2027, not a lot of pain ahead. I think we which would it be and why? will still hit bottom before we can Choose one field that you come up again, and the bottom will I would invest in any technology are absolutely passionate be produced by the more frequent that uses any surface to produce and more intense impacts of climate about and understand energy. Currently we have thin film change on every single country in that everything which is solar, which hasn’t taken off yet, but this world. We will get through it, but a barrier today is not a I believe that all our surfaces will be at a high cost. turned into energy generators for barrier tomorrow. Your job the building that they harbour, and I is precisely to remove those would invest in that. barriers to move us into the new technologies and a new What advice would you give to a sustainability professional starting livelihood of the 21st century. their job today?
Choose one field that you are The fact that climate change is absolutely passionate about and changing the hydrological cycle understand that everything which that we have had for hundreds is a barrier today is not a barrier of years means we will not have tomorrow. Your job is precisely to enough clean water in areas that are remove those barriers to move us currently inhabited. Which means we into the new technologies and a new will have to desalinate water, and we livelihood of the 21st Century. will have to do so at low cost, which is currently not the case. I’m optimistic, because I do That is perhaps the most difficult of the adaptation measures, but we will feel that we will end up with also have many other adaptations a more secure, a fairer and a that we are going to have to make more stable world. But that in order to respond to the increasing doesn’t mean that there is pounding of climate change through not a lot of pain ahead. more hurricanes, more floods, more droughts. So everything that is adapting our infrastructure and our livelihood to a very changed natural environment is going to be top of our sustainability challenges.
04 LORD NICHOLAS STERN
Where were you in 2007? Can we see the connection between the environment and the I came in to the sector as someone economy much more readily now? who has spent their life in economic policy. I was in the Treasury in I think that’s absolutely right – that is 2007, but I had just spent 10 yeas the big change of the last 10 years. as a chief economist - first of the We would not have got the Paris Lord Nicholas Stern is the chair European Bank for Reconstruction Agreement in December 2015 without of the Grantham Research and Development and then the World the deepening understanding that this Institute on Climate Change and Bank. Prior to that, I had been an was the growth story. the Environment at the London academic all my life. School of Economics. He is the author of the Stern Review, a In the longer term there In 2005 I was asked by Gordon seminal report commissioned by Brown and Tony Blair to look is no high-carbon growth Tony Blair and Gordon Brown at climate as a big policy and story – it creates an into the economic impacts of economics question. I started work environment so hostile it climate change. in the summer of 2005 right after chokes off and reverses the G7 summit in Gleneagles, where He was knighted for services we’d had Africa and climate change economic development. to economics in 2004, made a on the agenda. I had written the cross-bench life peer as Baron report for the Commission for Africa Essentially sustainable infrastructure Stern of Brentford in 2007, and we’d made good progress, drives growth. It drives growth now and appointed Companion but on the other subject we had in terms of improving demand and of Honour for services to made very. sharpening up supply. Over the economics, international medium term the whole story of the relations and tackling climate We decided one of the reasons for low-carbon economy sparks off a change in 2017. this was that we hadn’t seen climate great wave of technological change, change strongly enough as an what economics historians call a He has published more than 15 economic subject. We had seen it as Schumpeterian wave of economic books, including his most recent, an environmental issue and a long change, after Joseph Schumpeter who Why are We Waiting? The way down the track, and people’s wrote about creative destruction and Logic, Urgency and Promise of minds weren’t focused. waves of technological change. And Tackling Climate Change. in the longer term there is no high- So that’s how it started, and as soon carbon growth story – it creates an as I got deeply into the subject it environment so hostile it chokes off became crystal clear to me just how and reverses economic development. big the risks were. It was a huge economic issue, and more than that, If you ask me what the big change it began to be clear that if we went in our understanding has been, it’s down different routes towards a low- exactly that. It’s come through studies, carbon economy that is much less it’s come through our experience of polluting, much less wasteful, then how bad high-carbon growth can be in that is a very powerful growth story. terms of pollution and congestion and so on. It’s probably too early to declare complete victory in that argument, but it is pretty well established now. And that’s been key.
05 What’s the most important lesson Do you think we will be on course If you could invest in one clean you have learned in the last for two degrees? technology through to 2027 which decade? would it be and why? I think there is a good chance, That this is a very attractive growth coupled with a great risk we might I’m very cautious about the one shot, story. This is not about sacrificing not be. We’ve got ourselves in a because all our infrastructure has to something for the environment. position now where we can make it. be sustainable from now on, whether This is about actually growing and I’m very optimistic about what we can it’s in energy, transport, water, or the developing, reducing poverty and do, I’m much more cautious about design of cities. building more inclusive societies in what we will do. a very different and more attractive If I could name two areas though way then we have done in the past. What role will you play over the it would be solar and wind, in the next 10 years? context of the management of the What needs to happen by 2027? whole electricity supply. I also think I’m going to be involved in the there is huge progress in resource In terms of emissions we should have whole story of sustainable efficiency and the circular economy. been going down strongly as a world infrastructure. Because all this is set Self-drive cars will actually mean we for six or seven years. In 20 years’ in the context of the global agenda build fewer cars, because they will time we need emissions at least of 2015, which is the Sustainable be working all the time rather than 20 per cent lower than now, so we Development Goals (SDGs) and just sitting on drives. should be at least halfway there 10 the Paris Agreement, and years from now. sustainable infrastructure is But beware the one shot story, absolutely at the core. because this has to operate across We should essentially be phasing the whole economy. out the internal combustion engine, because if for example you’re not Self-drive cars will actually mean we build fewer If you could give some advice to going to sell them any more in someone starting out today, what India by 2030 then by 2027 the cars, because they will be would you tell them? whole industrial structure will have working all the time rather to be changing. So by 2027 the I’ll say what I say to my students: get than just sitting on drives. combustion engine has to be on the some skills. I’m in the economics way out. I think you will also see city profession so I encourage them to go centres which are better managed When we talk about sustainable and get some post-graduate skills in so congestion and pollution are far infrastructure we are talking about economics, so that they will be very less. In terms of cars, roads and city energy, transport, water, the design good at helping with public policy. If management, we are going to see of cities. A big part of that new they are going to be really creative dramatic change. investment in infrastructure is going engineers I would again encourage to be in emerging markets and them to go and get really good, I think by 2027 we have to have a developing countries. My own relevant high-level skills. much better understanding of how work will be focused in large we can go negative, because we’ve measure around fostering and So my advice to young people would got to go carbon zero 50 years financing sustainable infrastructure, be to first really invest in the skills from now. And if we are going to be because quantitatively it’s so they can bring to the world and then carbon zero we have to have quite important to what we have to get experience in changing things strong areas where we are carbon do. Public policy, the reduction of and being entrepreneurial. negative, because you are going uncertainty and risk, and bringing to have some places where there forward the right kind of finance at are carbon positives. We had better the right time is absolutely crucial. prepare for it now. I have also been very involved in the Global Challenges Research Fund and the Industrial Strategy in the UK, and I would like to stay closely involved in that.
06 JOSH HARDIE
Where were you in 2007? I think also when you look at consumers it’s been interesting. On I was at Tesco at the time, and the one hand, there’s no question over time one of my areas of focus there’s been a dramatic shift in terms was on Tesco’s footprint and wider of consumer awareness. You can point environmental concerns. to some very clear areas of behaviour Josh Hardie is deputy change, for example recycling or tech director-general for policy and It was very interesting watching and measurement. But it’s been tough. campaigns at the CBI. these trends from the Tesco During this decade we have also had Josh joined the CBI in 2016 to perspective, and how Tesco looked the financial crisis and austerity. That head up the business group’s at it both in terms of social impact has quite naturally changed people’s policy development and and the almost unfailing duty to priorities. But I don’t think of it as a influencing work. reduce its impact, but also from the case of things getting jolted off course, customer dynamic and how you because I think that’s life. actually change customer behaviour. Before joining the CBI he was group director for corporate Whatever decade you pick there responsibility at Tesco, where he I think it has also been a decade are going to be seismic events, the led on the integration of social of major shifts for CBI members. In challenge and the opportunity is to find and reputational issues into the 2008 we did our first report which ways of keeping business, government retailer’s business strategy. was called ‘Everyone’s Business’, and society engaged as they occur. and that feeling that you could get Josh Hardie has also held businesses round the table and they How have you seen the relationship executive roles at EdComs would really engage in the issue between business and corporate Ltd creating strategies and and look across the economy was responsibility develop? starting to emerge. campaigns for high-profile Swings and roundabouts! On the clients, including Sky, Google, one hand if you look at the journey the Army, the NSPCC, and many The way you tackle businesses have been on in terms of government departments. environmental impacts in understanding societal expectations a business isn’t just a CSR and understanding social impact, the last decade I think has seen really activity. It’s not just about significant progress. Businesses’ tree planting, it’s about sustainability policies I think in looking root and branch at many ways have been the flagbearer your business activities. for that.
Partly it’s been down to the So the moves from business have understanding that the way you tackle been very good, and still carry on. environmental impacts in a business With government, clearly there isn’t just a CSR activity. It’s not just have been notable successes. The about tree planting, it’s about looking 2008 Climate Change Act was root and branch at your business ground-breaking. I think we can be activities. So you’ve got to look at the pleased with the influence we have energy being used, you’ve got to look had on the EU ETS and the Paris at the way you transport your goods, Agreement. I think there is lots for the you’ve got to look at your production. UK government to be pleased about. So in that sense if you are a business In the heyday when things were that is going to look at this issue it is a really moving I think it did feel like a whole business conversation. genuine partnership.
07 But the trust between business What is your biggest achievement Paint us a picture of the kind of and society is not as strong as it of the past 10 years. world you would like to be living has been in decades past. That’s a in in 2027 cultural thing – it’s true of politicians, I think the shift in businesses not it’s true of the media, it’s true of the asking the question ‘what’s the For me, the thing that gets me relationship between society and benefit to us to act on this social excited is the technological aspect. institutions generally. But businesses issue’, to the belief that actually, I would expect and I am confident are very alert to that and very keen to this is what business is here to do. business will continue on the journey understand how we can a) improve And we as business are part of this around their own emissions. our impact and b) talk about what challenge, and we are going to lead the point of us is in a more effective the way on this challenge. Where I would love to see real way. That’s what I mean by swings innovation, real change, is in homes and roundabouts – there’s been a That genuine commitment to trying to and transport. The things that, for lot more progressive action, but our solve the problem is for me the most us as consumers, are everyday environment and that relationship still satisfying thing, because that’s not life. There are tools we can engage needs real work. so clear and not so comprehensive with because they are interesting, in many areas as it is in energy and because they help us live our lives How do you propose to address climate change. better, because they are convenient, that shortfall? because they make things easier What are the core challenges for us, but also because they help We have got to be absolutely facing the shift towards green us to live more environmentally clear, the first thing comes with business at the moment? friendly lives. understanding society’s expectations and making sure business behaviour I think the biggest challenge at the This is not just about how we drive meets that. And the vast majority of moment is simply long-term certainty greater change in sustainability. It’s businesses are in that position, but in the policy environment. It has about what sort of future economy when you get instances of individual slipped back, and that doesn’t help. we want, what the UK is going to businesses behaving badly, that There’s enough uncertainty that’s be brilliant at when we have left the damages trust in everybody. outside of our control at the moment European Union and we are doing – let’s control what we can control. trade deals abroad. We need to Once you have got good behaviour understand what our competitive in place, communication matters. it is The second one is slightly more advantage is going to be. And it very interesting the way businesses complicated, and that is how we should be in those areas. talk. And too often businesses have an honest conversation about talk in a way that people don’t cost. Budgets are tight. Too many understand. Whether that is about people in society are struggling. We topics like energy, or whether it is know that and absolutely recognise about topics like what the business that. At the same time, if we want to is there for, there is a real challenge push forward on a greener agenda for businesses to make what they we have to be able to have an open do and the topics they talk about conversation about what that does relevant, accessible, engaging and and doesn’t cost. understanding, and to not talk in business speak all the time. You see other countries such as Germany doing that rather well – So if you put those two things we need to be able to have that together - a clear understanding conversation. of expectations and of meeting them, and a voice that people are interested in and understand, I think those are two of the cornerstones of building trust.
08 EDWARD MASON
How would you describe the As an endowment the Church journey of green finance over the Commissioners are generally not fixed last decade? Has it finally hit the income investors and green finance mainstream? has been very much focused on green bonds. These seem to be making It depends what you mean by green strong progress but it is clear that we Edward Mason is head of finance. There’s the greening of finance are a long way from achieving the level responsible investment at generally and the creation of specific of investment required for the low Church Commissioners for investment vehicles to fund green carbon transition and achievement of England and is tasked with investments. the SDGs. ensuring the church implements its ethical and responsible There have been very significant steps This is as much, or more, a challenge investment commitments. forward in making environmental issues for policy makers as investors. Investors part of investment decision-making make their decisions based on their He took up the position in over the last decade. For example, the fiduciary responsibilities and risk/return August 2014, having previously 62 per cent vote last year for better criteria. Sustainable investments can served for five years as climate change related disclosure by stand up in their own terms but so can Secretary of the Church of ExxonMobil which was embraced by unsustainable investments, and public England Ethical Investment the world’s largest asset managers, the policy is the most effective way to get Advisory Group (EIAG). increasing popularity with institutional environmental damage priced in and to Prior to working at the Church investors of sustainability focused and create the right economic incentives so of England he served for 15 low carbon investment products, and that capital naturally flows at the scale years as a British diplomat, the growing voice of investors on required to sustainable rather than leaving in 2005 to help establish sustainability and climate policy with environmentally myopic investments. the pre-Paris Global Investor Statement the diplomatic advisory group Independent Diplomat. on Climate Change signed by investors What is the most important lesson representing more than $24tr in you have learned over the past 10 assets and the IIGCC now having a years? measurable impact on EU policy. Asset owners matter. When it comes to sustainability, in the long term, we’ve Asset owners matter. When it nowhere to hide because our returns comes to sustainability, in the are dependent on the health of the long term, we’ve nowhere to economic system as a whole. While hide because our returns are companies are focused on keeping their businesses profitable, politicians dependent on the health of the on winning the next election, and asset economic system as a whole. managers on keeping their mandates and staying in the best buy tables, But we are a long way from asset owners have a requirement to sustainability considerations being fully be able to generate returns long into integrated into our economic, business the future. and investment models. There is plenty more work to do. Reconciling our Asset owners are increasingly economic life with planetary boundaries using their voice. When we do, and is a journey and we are still in the particularly when we work together, we early stages. can have a sizable impact, both directly on companies and policy makers and indirectly by spurring action by asset managers who control huge amounts of capital. 09 What impact will the that do not do this punished or at While investors can do a number Taskforce for Climate-related the very least challenged by the of other things - draw attention to Financial Disclosure (TCFD) markets. I want to see technological issues, seek and improve disclosure, recommendations have on the innovation making the sustainable engage to improve corporate mainstream investor community’s choice the rational economic attention to sustainability issues, attitude to climate risk? choice, indeed giving us a range of call for public policy changes, do sustainable choices for our many their utmost to seek out positive The TCFD recommendations have environmental challenges. investment opportunities and given additional profile to the issue continue to develop sustainable and of climate risk and its potential To get there we need a relentless impact investing – if the numbers financial materiality. My sense is focus on climate change and don’t stack up the market economy they have been received most sustainability from citizens, NGOs, cannot solve environmental and enthusiastically by those investors the media, asset owners, asset social problems. It is society’s already concerned about climate managers and businesses - which job collectively to make sure the risk, who will lead investor advocacy will keep politicians focused too. We numbers stack up. of the implementation of the need innovation and investment in it recommendations. Nonetheless, I from businesses, governments and If you could invest in one clean am optimistic that the impact of the foundations. We need all that is best technology through to 2027 which recommendations will be significant. in the human spirit. would it be and why?
It is particularly significant Batteries. Battery technology is vital BlackRock were involved in the If the numbers don’t stack up to the low carbon economy – for the Taskforce and will be advocating the market economy cannot grid, for electric vehicles, for heavier the implementation of the transport. As batteries become TCFD’s recommendations in their solve environmental and cheaper, more powerful, lighter, engagement with companies. Uptake social problems. It is society’s smaller, easier and quicker to charge, does not get more mainstream job collectively to make sure and safer, the better served we will than that. the numbers stack up. be – the commercial opportunity is huge. The key benefit of the TCFD report is it gives a common disclosure agenda What top three sustainability What kind of world would you like around which investors can unite, challenges will be top of the to be living in in 2027? and it will not require many large agenda in 2027? How will players pushing for implementation One where I’m confident about the investors contribute to tackling future for my children and for the for companies to conclude that they them? need to act. The recommendations poor and vulnerable in developing are also a disclosure agenda around Water stress. Climate change. Air countries. which regulators can unite, and if pollution. they do, uptake will be faster and Do you think we will be on course more widespread. These are huge challenges, which to limit warming to two degrees? investors will need to contribute to I think it is the consensus view What is your vision for the green tackling through their function of that we are not on course to limit economy in 10 years’ time and investing with a view to achieving warming to two degrees and what do we need to get us there? their required risk-adjusted returns that getting us on course looks – just as businesses will need to In 10 years’ time, I hope to see extremely challenging. It is only contribute by investing with a view with the relentless societal focus us long past the peaking of to achieving their desired return on carbon emissions and a clear on the challenge, its urgency and capital and earnings growth. its importance, as I mentioned downward trend established. I’d like the integration of sustainability earlier, that we will have a chance of considerations into business strategy achieving the Paris Agreement target. to be normal practice and companies This is everyone’s responsibility, and the more influence we have, the more responsibility we have to use it.
10 DR EMILY SHUCKBURGH
Where were you in 2007? What is the most important lesson you have learned over the past 10 I was preparing to go off to the years? Antarctic on a research trip. At the time we had a big project to try and That decade has been the decade understand the circulation of the of me focusing on the polar regions. Southern Ocean. That’s important as I started working there just over Dr Emily Shuckburgh, is a it absorbs a huge amount of the CO2 a decade ago and until I started climate scientist based at the we put into the atmosphere. About studying those regions in detail I had British Antarctic Survey. 30 per cent of the CO2 we put into not appreciated the scale of change atmosphere is taken by ocean, and the and the pace at which it can happen. She is also a fellow of the Southern Ocean is a disproportionate Cambridge Institute for contributor to that. We were going For example, the Larsen C ice shelf Sustainability Leadership down to the Drake Passage region to was in the news recently, where and works extensively with take all sorts of measurements. this huge iceberg broke off. Calving business leaders to promote is a natural phenomenon, but the understanding of climate Where do you expect to be in 2027? iceberg that broke off was the size of science. Luxembourg. In the rest of the world, I honestly don’t know. Quite possibly we just don’t see things happen at She is the co-author of the back down in the Antarctic. that scale. Ladybird Expert book on Climate Research dominates my life, so that Change alongside Tony Juniper is where the focus would be. I would What is your vision for the green and the Prince of Wales. most likely be thinking about the economy in 10 years’ time and Arctic or Antarctic. There will still be what do we need to get us there? big questions in 10 years about their importance in the global climate I do a lot of work through the system and how they are changing. Cambridge Institute for Sustainable I’ve been twice to each. I don’t go Leadership with businesses. every year, especially with children. As such, I have had an outsider I am on a sabbatical as you can’t perspective on what the business go on trips like that for a short community has been doing in this period time. space for a decade. I have really noticed change over that decade, It is very easy in this space especially in the last couple of years. to emphasise the doom It has changed entirely. and gloom, as there is Ten years ago it was a CSR issue plenty of grounds for at most. I think that has completely that, but that is not very changed. Especially post-Paris motivating for businesses, there has been much greater understanding of the business or for individuals. community’s role and their power to drive forward change. Although my daughter was asked at school the other day what I did and she came home and said “next time you go to the Antarctic can you bring me back a penguin?”
11 But there has also been more of a Will the world be on course for Are you optimistic or pessimistic recognition – maybe driven by the two degrees by 2027? about the future? Bank of England’s recent work – that businesses have a vulnerability I have always said business is key I waver. I can look at it through an to climate change. That wasn’t to this. If the business community optimistic lens, but I can look at it recognised 10 years ago - whether it responds we can do it. When through a pessimistic lens when you is vulnerability in terms of physical businesses put their minds to things look at some of the science. risk or investment risk - that is now they can change things very rapidly. being engaged with as part of Over the last few years we have business risk analysis. If you could invest in one clean become increasingly concerned that technology through to 2027 which some of the glaciers that feed the I get asked as a climate scientist, would it be and why? West Antarctic ice sheet could be in irreversible retreat and if that ice do I get frustrated at the lack of That’s a really difficult question. The action. But my sense is there is sheet collapses that would eventually ultimate challenge is how do we get lead to three metres of sea level rise. a real difference now between a population of nine billion people public engagement and business to live an improved lifestyle, so in engagement. Most of the people I One recent study suggested it could terms of making a global difference, contribute as much as a metre of see in the business community get not necessarily in terms of making it, and get it to a much greater extent sea level rise just this century, and money, I’d look at technology that that would come on top of the other than the wider public, who rely for a helps improve lives in the developing lot of their information from a media causes of sea level rise - you could world and sets them on a trajectory have close to two metres of sea level environment that is very mixed on that is cleaner than what we have this topic. Business decisions do tend rise. If you look at a map of the UK been through. That means working you start to see large parts of the to be made on a hard assessment of with local partners in developing the evidence and a hard assessment country below sea level. I live in East countries to develop their own Anglia - you can forget East Anglia. of the evidence unveils what a solutions. It’s not a precise answer, significant challenge we face that we but helping the developing world need to respond to. What’s currently the biggest embrace a clean growth future is misconception surrounding going to be key to this. What do you think the biggest climate science? challenge the green economy will If we don’t act now on I think the thing most people struggle face over the next decade will be? climate change it will come with, even the people who are fairly knowledgeable about climate The biggest thing is just the numbers back to bite us. There is this needing to add up. Without wanting change, is the scale and urgency that to name names of the companies misconception that doing is required. I have worked with, often there is nothing is not a decision. goodwill, but the recognition of the That not reacting in the face I started working on this in the early ‘90s – I’ve been working on it for a scale of change that is required to be of uncertainty is somehow consistent with the Paris Agreement good 25 years – when you say we not itself a reaction. mapping is still a substantial step for have a couple of decades to respond some businesses. I think we have been warning people What advice would you give to a for a couple of decades already There’s been a recognition we need sustainability professional starting and not much has happened. This to do something, but not of the scale their job today? is not something we can leave until of the change we need to make. tomorrow, but that is still the easy This is not just for people in thing to do. It is easy to focus on And there hasn’t been that mindset sustainability, but the biggest change of what is required. issues like Brexit, we are seeing the lesson I have learnt is the need for UK government do that. But if we optimism. It is very easy in this space don’t act now on climate change it to emphasise the doom and gloom, will come back to bite us. as there is plenty of grounds for that, but that is not very motivating for There is this misconception that businesses, or for individuals. doing nothing is not a decision. That not reacting in the face of uncertainty is somehow not itself a reaction.
12 SIR JONATHON PORRITT
Where were you in 2007? It wasn’t just that they got rid of the Commission itself, they also got rid of I was Chairman of the Sustainable sustainable development ministers Development Commission at the across government, stopped asking same time as Forum for the Future local government to do anything, was expanding internationally. The botched all the regional bodies, and Sir Jonathon Porritt is founder Forum had been going for seven even stopped using the phrase director and trustee of years, and we had just got into this ‘sustainable development’ completely sustainability non-profit Forum incredibly rich period of engagement because it was held to be irrelevant. with the Labour government for the Future. doing this real joined-up, delivery- In 10 years the entire memory of what He helped set up the Forum based approach to sustainable sustainable development means in 1996 and has since seen it development across central as a central guiding principle in expand beyond the UK with government departments and local government has been obliterated. offices in the US, India, and government. It was amazing. And I It’s incredible to see. look at the government scene now Singapore. and I think ‘oh my God, that was a What did business sustainability A leading environmentalist high point’. look like 10 years’ ago? and writer of numerous books In 2007, for instance, more than 90 Good. It was good. There were a on sustainability issues, Porritt per cent of local authorities in the few companies doing big-picture, worked as director of Friends UK had a local Agenda 21 action joined-up sustainable development, of the Earth from 1984-1991. plan. They had a set of integrated although it is also timely to remember He was later appointed by indicators for economic, social and how fragile, unfought, and naive the Blair government to chair environmental outcomes, which some of it was – a lot of it was quite the Sustainable Development were assessed on an annual basis disconnected. Commission for two terms by the National Audit Office, and between 2000 and 2009. regional bodies were really getting The pursuit of economic their heads around sustainable growth indefinitely into the Sir Jonathon Porritt also became development. chancellor of Keele University future on our finite planet in 2012 and remains an active It was an amazing time, because is the closest thing we have political campaigner for the the government wasn’t standing in to modern, species-wide Green Party and a number of the way of business - it was actually insanity. You don’t really other causes. saying ‘this is really important’. hear anybody articulate
I can’t help but compare that with that in modern politics. where we are now, because there is nothing happening - literally So I think one of the best things nothing - from government on this over the last 10 years is the degree front. It is a complete desert. The to which business has upped its coalition government got rid of game. It has become much more all the sustainable development integrated in its thinking, more architecture. sophisticated, better able to bring about real change on the ground and through supply chain management, relationships with business partners and consumers and so on. So 10 years’ ago it wasn’t bad, but it looks quite primitive in comparison to where we are now. 13 What has been the biggest barrier What’s the most important thing What do you see as the biggest for companies improving their you’ve learned in the past 10 sustainability challenges for the sustainability credentials? years? next decade?
There is a real barrier here. It is For us in the Forum there has been One of the biggest problems we’ve clear companies have to be able a really big set of lessons that we’ve got at the moment is the debate to demonstrate the ‘business case’ had to internalise in the last four or about climate change has focused because if they can’t do that, it five years. The first is that business almost exclusively on energy, is quite hard to actually justify to is a hugely important and significant transport, materials, infrastructure shareholders this is something that is player in changing the circumstances – the man made, physical world absolutely in their interests. out there and in improving the that we depend on to create current state of play. You wouldn’t wealth. The land-based aspects of have said that 10 years’ ago, but now climate are much less understood We have to think much more you can say that emphatically, and and developed. If you think now broadly about the systems they are right there as a major agent about agriculture, forestry, land-use in which those companies of change in their own right patterns and how we are going to optimise the use of different biomes operate and how they can But they have to operate within the for different purposes to feed combine forces with other ground rules and that means some of people – to maintain biodiversity and players to effect change the interventions they make are not maintain life support systems in soil at a systemic level. really as cost-effective and outcome- and so on – we are massively off effective as they could be, and there the pace. are quite severe limitations on what Now some companies have made they can actually do. We have to What do you think the green a better fist of that than others – think much more broadly about the economy will look like in 10 years’ Unilever, M&S and others have systems in which those companies time? consistently said it is about long-term operate and how they can combine value creation rather than short- forces with other players to effect It is changing so fast. 10 years ago term business benefit today. But change at a systemic level. there were lots of outright cynics many companies have never really saying the green economy was just got their heads around it and that’s Also, when I think of the role window dressing and not even worth proving now to be quite problematic, of business in climate issues, talking about as a sector in the way because the basic ground rules of particularly at the time of the Paris we categorise economic activities our capitalist economy have really summit and the agreement around – it was just a bit of rhetoric for changed. the SDGs, business was very active politicians to play around with. in its advocacy work. They were The pursuit of economic growth a major influence, succeeding in 10 years on those cynics have indefinitely into the future on our bringing politicians with them. completely disappeared, just by finite planet is the closest thing virtue of the scale of market activity we have to modern, species-wide So voice is very important, and under different headings in the green insanity. You don’t really hear nowhere is that more important these economy. And if you project those anybody articulate that in modern days than in the USA, where you growth curves forward, the green politics. You do hear more of it – have now got excruciating dilemmas economy won’t work as a concept in tempered and a little bit nuanced, for many large global companies 10 years’ time because it will be too obviously – in capital markets which are having to work out what bloody big. and amongst some of the savvier to do about a political system and investment houses with people a president that seems to want to So I’m hugely hopeful about that, and thinking about stranded assets reverse much of what they have what makes me particularly hopeful is and returns over time. But there’s done over the last 10 years. So that that will get investors to re-calibrate no mainstream challenge to that voice issue is crucial. their future value in earnings over central premise for what progress for time in terms of their own portfolios, humankind looks like. and that means we should be seeing trillions of dollars of investment flowing into different aspects of the green economy during the next decade. It has to, as we know it’s not moving fast enough right now.
14 JAMES THORNTON
Where were you in 2007? Where are we now with tackling that deficit? At that point ClientEarth was just starting up. We were trying to A number of things have changed establish that citizens could use law in the last 10 years. One of the most to protect the environment in Europe, dramatic developments is everyone because no one had really done understands environmental problems James Thornton is the that before. are much more serious than we founder and chief executive of thought even 10 years ago. ClientEarth. The award-winning At that time in Europe there was a environmental law firm was great interest in the environment We have the Paris Agreement, which established in 2007 and uses and in reducing environmental harm. is in my mind a turning point in human advocacy, litigation and research One of the things we identified history. Basically all the countries in the to address environmental though was an enforcement deficit in world have agreed climate change is challenges, including biodiversity environmental regulations and laws. so significant they are willing to take loss, climate change, and serious measures. That’s enormously chemical pollution. One example was that all the capital important. We have also understood cities in Europe that we looked at biodiversity loss is happening much Thornton is also a successful were violating air pollution standards more rapidly than we knew 10 years novelist and a conservation in a fairly extreme way, to the ago. Astoundingly, something like 50 fellow of the Zoological Society detriment of people’s health. The per cent of all wild animals have been of London, and in 2012 he was European Commission was saying eliminated in the last 40 years. named by The New Statesman that around 400,000 people a year as one of ten people who could across Europe die early because of In me there is enormous hope, change the world. air pollution. because once you understand things you can start to solve problems. For In 2016 he was also named So that was an example of a example, there is a lot more citizen BusinessGreen’s Leader of remarkable enforcement deficit. involvement in enforcement. the Year. People had agreed air pollution was a very serious matter, they had We started air quality cases in the passed quite decent legislation in UK, and we beat the government in Brussels which then was passed in the Supreme Court. I had discussions every country, and then not much with Michael Gove yesterday about air was done to apply it. quality, I hope the UK will now make dramatic moves to clean it up. One of the other dynamics was NGOs had become very expert at We have also brought cases all across campaigning and at policy, but they Europe. We have won a series of cases didn’t use law very much and in Germany for example and Poland, because of that they didn’t try and and we will see results. We will see enforce law very much. So countries countries having to now deliver on the and the EU itself were rather promises they made, because citizens lackadaisical about making sure the are demanding it. laws were complied with. China has also changed a lot in the last 10 years. Napoleon said: “China is a giant who is sleeping, and let her sleep because when she wakes she will change the world.” And he was a smart fellow - it has woken up on the environment.
15 China has articulated its new vision What’s your vision for the green Do you think we will be on course for an ecological civilisation. And it economy in 2027? for two degrees? means it very seriously. That’s very exciting, because it’s far more of a The world’s biggest problems from Yes, well we have to be. And I believe profound examination of this than is an environmental perspective are we certainly can be. The reason I happening in any Western country. climate change and biodiversity loss. am generating hope for it is because If they are successful then they will hope is my job. Unless you have a lead the world in green technology. My hopes for the next 10 years are positive vision of where you want to that we will see a thorough move go you will never get there. So while the Western companies who towards addressing climate change. are clever about this will be ahead I believe there is still time to do If you could invest in one of companies pushing old industries, it. If industry and the market really technology over the next decade the real competition I think for get behind moving faster towards which would it be and why? Western green companies may be electrification of the transport fleet, That’s an interesting question. I coming from China. They will have to electrification of the economy, and would say there would be two: clean keep a careful eye on that. generating the electricity needed in a zero-carbon way, then we have tech in terms of electricity generation, tremendous potential to keep climate and Artifical Intelligence (AI). A few people can make an change within the Paris Agreement enormous difference. We have target. Even 1.5C is possible. I think one of the ways the industry is going to help us move much had very profound impacts more quickly than we anticipate to a in Europe, in China and in And second is biodiversity loss. The good news is even though we have carbon-neutral economy is through Africa, and we are still only a killed 90 per cent of the sharks in the development of AI. That needs to little more than 100 people ocean, 10 per cent are still there. So be done in the right way, in such a way that it benefits people and the at Client Earth. And that’s all we have to do is treat them with environment. But it could potentially by being strategic, having respect and the biodiversity loss can be stabilised and we can come back. be an enormous help in making sure powerful tools, and having a we achieve these objectives. vision of where we want to go. What will be the biggest changes on the ground? If you had to give some advice to somebody starting out in the What is the most important lesson Well one that’s obvious to visualise industry today what would you you have learned over the last is people will drive fully electric say? decade? vehicles and the electricity for that I would say the future is carbon That a few people can make an will come from only renewable neutral. So find a way to contribute enormous difference. We have had sources. If that happened, your something that nobody else is, and very profound impacts in Europe, in contribution to climate change will contribute something that AI won’t be China and in Africa, and we are still plummet and the health of your able to do instead of you in 10 years. only a little more than 100 people children will soar. That’s one change I at Client Earth. And that’s by being think is very tangible and reasonable strategic, having powerful tools, and to expect. having a vision of where we want to go.
16 LORD ADAIR TURNER
Where were you in 2007? If you look at the first work that we did in the CCC in 2008, if you had I probably hadn’t thought about the asked me then what we have to do issue of climate change before 1995 to decarbonise UK electricity I would or so - I was vaguely aware of the have said to back three different science but I hadn’t really paid a lot technologies: renewables, carbon Lord Adair Turner is the chair of attention to the early development capture and storage (CCS), and of the Energy Transitions of the Kyoto Protocol and so on. nuclear. Commission, which aims to map out pathways for the world But when I became responsible Since then the cost of nuclear has to shift to low-carbon energy for presenting the point of view of not gone down, the cost of CCS has while still enabling economic business I had to take it seriously. not come down, and the cost of wind development. As head of the CBI I had to decide and solar has come down something what our lobbying stance would be. like 70 and 90 per cent. So because I had to take it seriously He is a former director-general of the CBI and former head of I read and thought about it, and I So that then raises the real potential the Financial Services Authority became absolutely convinced the that we could actually decarbonise before its abolition in 2013. science was clear, that this was a electricity supply with a close to 100 He was also the first chairman very dangerous threat, and that per cent renewable system. The of the Committee on Climate there was almost certainly a set of realisation that is possible is one of Change. technologies - if we unleashed the the most transformational things that power of human innovation, private has occurred. capital and public support – that could deal with it economically. What is the most important lesson you have learned over the last In 2007 itself, I have to say I wasn’t decade? heavily and directly involved in a specific climate role at that stage, but It is that a form of government policy I was about to be. I was appointed aligned with the free market can to the Climate Change Committee work. The fact is, we would never (CCC) in early 2008, and we have had dramatic falls in the cost produced our first report at the end of wind, solar, and batteries without of 2008. initial subsidies. We made a set of commitments that we wanted green Over the last decade how would renewable energy - that required you characterise the shift you subsidies up front to get it going, have seen happening in the green subsidies which at the time were economy? criticised. Those subsidies, along with public-sponsored R&D support, The most fundamental thing that have driven the private sector to has changed is that progress on achieve scale and learning such that renewable electricity has gone far the prices have come down so much faster than most of us anticipated we soon will not need subsidies. back in 2007. That was the theory of the case that people put forward in advance, but I have to say I think it has succeeded beyond people’s wildest dreams.
17 What will be the biggest changes Will the world be on course for Are you optimistic or pessimistic from today’s world by 2027? two degrees in 2027? about the future?
The single most important answer I think it is touch-and-go whether Technologically, I’m significantly more around the world is that we drive that we can meet 2C. And although I optimistic about the future. The pace decarbonisation. admire the fact Paris targets 1.5C, as at which the costs of renewable I look at the science that is almost power and batteries have come But one also has to realise that’s not impossible. down make me much more optimistic a sufficient answer in itself. Because that this is technologically achievable. there are some sectors where even We will have a greater confidence if you had limitless green electricity we know how to build an eventual But the developments in the US it wouldn’t solve the problem. For zero-carbon economy by the with President Trump made me example, cement production. It late 21st century, which is fully more worried that politics and self- produces CO2 as a by-product of the compatible with rising prosperity interested lobbying will get in the chemical process. in the emerging world. But we will way of the logical way forward. be worried about whether we can So we are going to need other get there fast enough to prevent What advice would you give to a solutions for what the Energy the accumulation of CO2 in the sustainability professional starting Transitions Commission (ETC) calls atmosphere getting so high that we their job today? the “hard to abate” sectors. go above 2C. Understand the huge potential power For example, what are we going to If you could invest in one clean of human technological innovation, do about aeroplanes? We may be technology through to 2027 and understand that will not be able to use electricity on some short which would it be and why? delivered either by governments haul flights but I doubt if we are acting alone or the private sector going to be able to fully electrify long Even better batteries. What we acting alone, but by an effective mix haul flights. What are we going to are seeing so far is remarkable of both of those levers. do about cement production? Steel progress with lithium ion batteries, production? where Tesla and others are So keep well away from any operating at such scale they demonisation of the private sector, Which sustainability challenges are getting learning effects and and keep well away from any will be top of the agenda in 2027? economies of scale, and we’re demonisation of the state. They are seeing dramatic reductions in the both needed, but they are needed in By 2027 we will be increasingly cost of a fundamentally unchanged a symbiotic combination. confident that we can build low- technology. I think that’s great and it carbon electricity systems. We will will take us quite far. I think by 2020 still have a major challenge however we will have battery systems using in the fact there is still a whole load lithium ion at below $150 per kWh. of coal-fired power in the world. Because it’s there already it will mean it’s competitive on a marginal Technologically, I’m cost basis. We will either have the significantly more optimistic enormous cost penalty of about the future. The pace at persuading people to close that which the costs of renewable down before its end of life, or we will have to have CCS. power and batteries have come down make me much I think challenge number two will more optimistic that this is be water. In many parts of the world technologically achievable. there are very severe water stress problems which will be made worse by climate change. But if by 2027 we could get that down to $50 per kWh, and if we could get the density improved to get a kWh per kg of battery, rather than 0.4 kWh per kg of battery, that would be transformational.
18 DR JEREMY LEGGETT
Where were you in 2007? What is your vision for the green economy in 10 years’ time and what I had just stepped down as do we need to get us there? Solarcentury’s CEO, with great relief, handing over to the wonderful Derry One needs to be a holistic expert to Newman, MD of Sony UK until his have a view of an entire economy. I defection to what was then a glorified have come to the view that there Dr Jeremy Leggett is the South London roofing company. are no such experts left. Things are founder and director of solar moving too fast, and the germane firm Solarcentury. He also is the There was just a chance, I figured, that disciplines and technologies are too founder and chair of SolarAid, such a man would be able to grow and diverse. Suffice to say, things can a charity that provides solar- run the company better than me. And move a lot faster than most people powered lights to some of the that it would give me time and space seem to believe possible, in both world’s poorest communities. to do the things that really interested good and bad directions. me. I had books to write. And we had He is the author of four books set up SolarAid, with five per cent of Will the world be on course for two on the climate-energy nexus, our profits, in 2006. degrees in 2027? including Winning the Carbon We certainly have the technologies War, which charted the rise of Where do you expect to be in 2027? and strategies to be shovel ready, global climate action ahead of the Paris summit. I plan to keep chronicling the great never mind in the lab and the minds of global energy transition, in prose young innovators. and storytelling that ordinary folk can If you could invest in one clean appreciate, meanwhile doing my best technology through to 2027 which to peer into the crystal ball. would it be and why?
Broad as the energy arena is now, Digitalisation and the multi-technology I plan to survey an even wider platform business models that are stage because artificial intelligence opening up around us suggest to and robotics are accelerating fast me that the kinds of investment a alongside clean energy technologies. decade from now are likely to be very This grand nexus of change offers different from the kinds of bets we huge opportunities, but also poses can make today. I am sorry to dodge severe new threats. AI and robotics the question. But 10 years really is a can also be used for sinister purposes, very long time when there is so much providing the perfect apparatus for potential for exponential police states, and the authoritarian growth curves. right is on the rise in politics. I will be 73 in 2027, if I make it. I would like What advice would you give to a to be seen as a wise old chronicler, sustainability professional starting aspiring futurist, and teller of truth their job today? to power. Learn to code, work in a hub What is the most important lesson surrounded by startups, and keep the you have learnt over the past 10 faith with green core values. years? Are you optimistic or pessimistic Never trust the Tories. about the future?
I am a qualified optimist, with a small q and a lot of emphasis on that word.
19 JULIET DAVENPORT
Where were you in 2007? What is the most important lesson you have learned over the past 10 In 2007, we had just taken over our years? back office company and integrated it into Good Energy, and relocated our Trust in your customers. Our very whole team to the offices we have first share offering was prompted today. by listening to customers in our call Juliet Davenport is the founder centre, hearing that they wanted to and chief executive of Good The company was still pretty much in its be part of the business. Since then Energy, one of the UK’s leading infancy, with its focus on delivering 100 I have always valued our customers’ green energy suppliers. per cent renewable electricity to small views - not only are they the best businesses and household customers. barometer of our performance, they The company was responsible We had one wind farm and had started give us an informal steer on the for the first commercial onshore working with micro generators to direction our business needs to wind farm in the UK, at Delabole encourage a community of smaller take too. in Cornwall, and it was also renewable generators. the first company to launch a What is your vision for the green renewable energy marketplace The HomeGen scheme we had economy in 10 years’ time and in the UK, in collaboration with developed then became the blueprint what do we need to get us there? Open Utility. for the government’s Feed-in Tariff Scheme, which now sees over 900,000 Looking at how far renewables In 2013 she was awarded an households generating their own power have come in the last 10 years, my OBE for services to renewables today. expectations are high! In 2007, less and in June 2015 she was than 6GW of renewable capacity appointed to the board of was deployed in the UK. This has I think Good Energy will be a the Natural Environment increased by over 600 per cent to a Research Council. really different company in massive 38GW in 2017. I don’t expect 2027. Perhaps not so much we will quite get to 100 per cent delivering electricity and gas, renewables in 10 years; although - looking at the developments of solar, but instead delivering services onshore and offshore wind and tidal for customers to generate, - we are in with a chance. balance and use energy in their homes and businesses. Clean tech - like batteries, electric vehicles and smart technology - is so Where do you expect to be in 2027? important in supporting this change. Ongoing cost reductions as these I think Good Energy will be a really technologies mature will allow for different company in 2027. Perhaps more and more renewables onto the not so much delivering electricity and system. gas, but instead delivering services for customers to generate, balance The final part of the puzzle is and use energy in their homes and consumers. Keeping them engaged businesses. and connected with how their electricity is generated, stored, and Products like our peer-to-peer trading used is the key to bringing us the platform Selectricity will be integral to real transformations. helping our customers minimise their costs and ensure their energy use has little to no impact on the environment.
20 What will be the biggest changes Will the world be on course for What advice would you give to a from today’s world? two degrees? sustainability professional starting their job today? The biggest change will be bottom- I have a feeling we will overshoot 2C. up energy, rather than top-down. The question is whether we will be I’ve seen the renewables The journey from the grid to the end able to bring it back and find ways of profession develop from its customer will look very different, with cooling our planet. humblest beginnings, and seen the loads of different business models technological innovations and policy facilitated by digital systems that If you could invest in one clean interventions that have come along use AI or Blockchain to manage technology through to 2027 which the way. So I would say keep an energy trading. The players will look would it be and why? open mind and your skill set broad; completely different and it will be learn how to communicate and keep digital and data that rule the show. That’s a tricky one because the UK an eye on the technology. There will needs a mixture of renewables and be unique opportunities out there in flexible clean technologies to keep the future, so the ability to adapt is Decarbonising heat is a us on track to meet our emissions essential. reduction targets. massive opportunity and Are you optimistic or pessimistic a challenge because of If just one, I would say tidal lagoon about the future? the inefficiency of the power because the UK should existing housing stock in make the most of its fantastic tidal Optimistic. Always optimistic range. This could be a world leading and smiling. the UK. New technology industry that sees us gaining from a and systems will be key. highly dependable and dispatchable source of renewable power. What three sustainability challenges will be top of the agenda in 2027?
Firstly, decarbonising heat is a massive opportunity and a challenge because of the inefficiency of the existing housing stock in the UK. New technology and systems will be key to supporting people to use less energy in heating their homes.
Secondly, early solar panels and batteries will be reaching the end of their lives by 2027 and recycling will be a top priority to reduce mineral and electronic waste. A whole new industry will be built around reusing and recycling these.
Third, aviation and shipping are the slow movers on reducing greenhouse gas and pollution emissions. However, innovative technologies are coming through in these areas, which could see battery- powered planes become a reality.
21 LORD STUART ROSE
What did the sustainability In terms of the business moves, landscape look like in 2007? what have you seen in the last decade that gives perhaps more I think the wheels had slightly come cause for optimism? off people’s passion for climate change and for sustainability I’m optimistic, and there are some because of course we were on the very good examples of businesses Lord Stuart Rose spent four years brink of the great economic crisis. that have really continued to drive as the chief executive of Marks & So there was a real push a couple of forward. So lots of small businesses Spencer before assuming the role years before that but people really have picked up the baton, lots of executive chair at the retailer in were beginning to worry more about of medium businesses. And the 2008 for a further two years. the economy. And I was feeling at Unilevers of this world, the Walmarts the time that greenness, of this world, even the Marks & During his time at M&S Lord Rose sustainability, was falling off the Spencers of this world, have reset oversaw the introduction of the agenda because people were their targets for 2020 and 2025. So flagship Plan A sustainability worrying about their businesses. there are some good things going programme, widely regarded on in the sustainability arena, but it as an industry-leading doesn’t have the same cut through, environmental agenda. He was I wish people would in my view, that it could have had if also the chairman of the Stronger understand that 2050 is we had a government that was really In campaign for the 2016 pushing the agenda. referendum on leaving the EU. only 33 years away. And it will go in a nanosecond. What’s the most important lesson He was knighted in 2008, and you have learnt in this area over was made a life peer in 2014. the last decade? In 2014 he was also named How has that changed over the BusinessGreen’s Lifetime last 10 years? I wish I had started my own Achievement Award Winner. journey earlier. I wish people would We are in a better place now than understand that 2050 is only 33 we were 20 years ago, and we are years away. And it will go in a in a better place now than we were nanosecond. Actions we don’t take 15 years ago, but I have to say that today will have a dire effect if the in the last few years I think there predictions are true. So we have has been more flatlining than I to really act early, act soon, act in a would have liked. It’s come off the unified way and get on with it. top of government agendas. There hasn’t been the same passion and Is that the advice that you would unification as I would have expected, give someone starting out in and of course the United States sustainability today? hasn’t played as big a part or as passionate a leadership role as one I would tell them the most important would have liked. In the UK, I have enemy you have got is time. We have to say, with the last government and to move on fast, and if you don’t with the present government, it’s move on fast now you will regret certainly not top of their agenda. because time will go very quickly. So speed is of the essence.
22 What would you like the world to How does that change life for If you could invest in one look like in 10 years’ time? people in the street? technology for the next decade, which would it be and why? I would like to see more co-operation. Well, we have to educate people. No country, no business, no The really dangerous place to be The one I think is the most exciting is individual, is big enough to be able would be if everybody does nothing, the electric car. to tackle some of the problems this then eventually governments will planet will be facing in 20, 30, 40 wake up to the fact that there is or 50 years’ time. We need more a crisis and they will be forced to Would I buy an electric car? co-operation across governments, legislate. And legislation is a very Absolutely. We have to get companies and NGOs, and we need crude weapon, it’s a very crude everybody to think this way. more of a coherent and cohesive instrument. And what you need to government vision for what the do is to head that off at the pass to issues are and how we are going to avoid that. The technology is here. Now it is deal with them. I really do believe not about the technology, it’s about that one plus one plus one equals Start taking actions now, however the mindset. Would I buy an electric more than three. small on an individual level, or car? Absolutely. We have to get however large on a corporate or everybody to think that way. What will be the key challenges government level, which will make Literally last week I’ve starting over the next decade? sure that we don’t have to go to looking at whether I should change the fall-back option of governments my car for one. Even I, an old Luddite Well, the biggest three things that we having to take action because we are like myself, has woken up to the fact are going to face - and everybody facing a crisis. that I need to do something about it. knows this - is the global population, which is increasing exponentially. Do you think we will be on course This means we are likely to have a for a 2C target? shortage of energy, food and water. Not across the whole world, but in I don’t know. Some recent research certain areas there will be big crises. suggests there appears to be less So that’s the problem for the next warming than we originally thought. 50 years – how do we feed this ever That’s irrelevant. It’s still going to be expanding population on the planet? the fact that we’re going to have And how do we do that in such a a whole crisis on our hands about way that we also protect what’s left water or energy, and on top of that if of our eco structure? So that’s a we have got a planet that is warming very complicated problem which no that’s only going to make all those individual can solve, no government problems more challenging. can solve, and no company can solve, So 1C would be bad enough, even 1.5. but collectively we can do it together. I don’t think we need to stick with 2C as a benchmark.
The planet is getting hotter. We are polluting it, we are creating the conditions which will put – without over emphasising it – the potential survival of this species on this planet under threat.
23 SIR IAN CHESHIRE
Where were you in 2007? There’s a sense that if you catch the tide on these things change is possible at I was running B&Q - it was the year a faster rate than ever before. Which is before I took over as chief executive good and scary at the same time. of Kingfisher. What is your vision for the green Sir Ian Cheshire is chair of the We were getting into some of the economy in 10 years’ time? circular economy work for the first time. department store Debenhams There was a sense that summer that I hope we will have done two big and chair of Barclays UK, the the storm clouds of the financial crisis things. One of which is making a more retail arm of Barclays bank. were starting to gather, a feeling t substantial shift towards a circular hings were getting quite uncertain economy model. He was previously chief but we needed to move faster on the executive of B&Q and then its green agenda. The second part is I think there are real parent company Kingfisher. opportunities to rethink how sustainable I was encouraged that a lot of our business can play a role. I think that’s He was knighted in the supply chain was working with us to reinforced by this technological change 2014 New Years’ Honours make a difference, so it felt like an of total transparency, and using that list for services to business, odd contrast between an increasingly to build a different relationship with sustainability and the uncertain and dangerous world, and customers and citizens. I think that’s environment, and in 2015 lots of opportunities we were seeing a very different model we could be received BusinessGreen’s to re-engineer products and rethink looking forward to. Lifetime Achievement Award. business models. What would that look like for the So what has changed in the average consumer? last decade, and what have you learned? There’s probably not one single mega- change. We are not all going to be I think what has changed most has running around in flying cars, which is a been the degree of shift in technology shame because the Jetsons were in that period. rather fun.
If you think 2007 was the year the first I think what you will see emerge is iPhone was released it doesn’t seem a digitally enabled consumer who is quite possible. On the back of that able to understand far more about the mobile internet has completely the impacts of how they behave and transformed the world, and in relation what they do, and be able to use that to that (but not directly connected) we consumer power to help businesses have seen an explosion in renewables, change more. new materials and batteries. Fundamentally, the big shift from the I think it’s the rate of change since consumer’s point of view will be an 2007 which I have most noticed. It’s increasing focus on the sharing or gig the hyper-transparency that we have economy. We are already seeing it with now got, and that you can scale things car ownership in certain groups. I think in a way that wasn’t possible 10 years you are going to see a much more ago. Change seems to happen at a digitally enabled, switched on, use-it- network rate. So you get these huge when-you-need-it, experience-driven shifts - Facebook suddenly connecting consumer, rather than one who has just billions rather than just a few people. got loads of gear.
24 What top three sustainability What’s your personal plan for the What advice would you give to a challenges will top the agenda in next 10 years? sustainability professional starting 2027? out today? One area which interests me is the Personally, I still think we won’t meet whole connection between food, If you are starting out the two bits of the challenge of climate change in farming and the countryside - I’m advice I always give to people in an the next 10 years. That will still be going to get involved in a project organisation is figure out the unique with us, which is an all-encompassing starting later this year on that. It’s a contribution that organisation can headline for quite a few other things. side effect of Brexit that the UK could make. Don’t try and do everything. have a rethink of how its economy If you are in the car industry, Number two is this model of the and farming interact, because it will reinvent that one, don’t fret about the economy – can we really see a be outside the Common Agricultural other ones. reinvention of the economy from that Policy for the first time, which is linear ‘take, make, dispose’ model to interesting. The second one is think about how to a more circular system? unleash the power of the consumer Then the other question, which I still and the transparent world that we think is not on the agenda enough, is have, and all the data that is out You get these huge shifts - the sustainability of cities. So much there to make change. Facebook suddenly connecting of the world’s population is moving to billions rather than just a few cities and they can be great engines Are you optimistic or pessimistic of sustainability if we build them and about the future? people. There’s a sense that run them right. if you catch the tide on these I’m optimistic, because I think we have got to the point where enough things change is possible at a Will the world be on course for two degrees in 2027? people are worried and we have faster rate than ever before. seen some of the big players like I’m a little pessimistic. I think what we China come to an understanding that And then I think you are going to see are seeing is the first really big shift things can’t carry on in a straight line. individual issues arise. It’s interesting in power generation that we have society seems to focus on things for seen certainly in my lifetime. But I The main reason why I am optimistic five or 10 years, then declare victory think it will require a lot more in the though is because I am a profound and move on to the next thing. So way of things like electric car growth believer in human creativity, and I if you think back to the ozone layer, to make it really happen. think we will find solutions even if everyone got focused, CFCs got they are not easy or straightforward. banned and people actually did But I think what’s most important – something about it. I think we are just and this is not being unfair on us in at the beginning of a 10-year cycle the UK – is the shift in the Chinese on oceans – not just plastics in our leadership, the realisation they oceans but generally the health of simply can’t have unsustainable our oceans and the degree to which growth, which makes me more that has not been understood. optimistic about the future.
If you could invest in one clean technology through to 2027 which would it be and why?
I’m very interested in the whole area of materials sciences and the ability to make things which could, for example, replace aluminium, things which allow batteries to work on a completely different basis. I think you are going to see some very fundamental changes courtesy of materials science.
25 MARK CAMPANALE
Where were you in 2007? What is the most important lesson you have learned over the past 10 I was at Henderson Global Investors. years? I’d been one of the founding team in 1994 that had built their Global Care A lot needs to be swept away; let’s brand of thematic sustainability funds start with attitudes, institutions, people, from £10m to over £2bn. positions, market behaviours. New Mark Campanale is founder of wine often needs new wine skins (I’m the Carbon Tracker Initiative and From around 2001 Nick Robins and I, stealing a saying from the past). one of the chief architects of the other founder of Carbon Tracker, the ‘unburnable carbon’ capital had started to lecture on our ‘stranded ‘Mainstreaming sustainability’ in markets thesis, which argues assets’ and ‘unburnable carbon’ financial markets is a delusional we cannot burn all the proven thesis and published the first carbon journey whose mission is led by the fossil fuel reserves in the world footprint of an investment fund. inexperienced and the naive. I hear it and avert dangerous global all the time but I’ve never understood warming. Where do you expect to be in 2027? what it meant. At Carbon Tracker he is By 2027, I’d expect to be continuing Don’t wait to be led, always take the responsible for management to implement some of the ideas lead and listen to people younger than strategy, board matters and in the investment world that I’ve you more often than you do; and don’t developing the organisation’s been developing since the ‘90s, the listen to people in positions of power capital markets framework first being around more effective or influence. They’re often the first analysis. It’s goal is to align capital markets for high social that need sweeping away as they’re capital markets with natural impact enterprises. I founded and protecting the status quo (sometimes ecological limits to growth. incorporated the ‘Social Stock including their own position). Exchange’ in June 2007 which is still More recently, Mark Campanale building out today. And the second And here is a lesson to remember: founded and is chair of the would be looking at ecosystems limits it’s okay to get angrier as you get Fish Tracker Initiative, which to how capital markets operate. older. A peaceful and untroubled mind focuses on limits to growth in the is an unproductive mind, maybe a fisheries space. So in 2027 I’d hope that capital complacent mind. markets function better to support particularly social enterprises in Remember in sustainable financial lesser-developed countries; and and markets, the biggest and most that capital markets respect ecological effective changes have occurred limits through better transparency and when women have been in leadership. accountability. So don’t surround yourself with guys. If you do, things often end unhappily. It’s OK to get angrier as Lastly, resist people who say ‘let you get older. A peaceful me be your boss; I know what you and untroubled mind is an want, better than you do, let me run unproductive mind, maybe this for you’. If they’re not a fox, then a complacent mind. they’re almost certainly a snake. Real partnerships start with standing in the same place and looking forwards in That is what Carbon Tracker, and more the same direction. recently Fish Tracker, is really about.
26 What is your vision for the green What will be the biggest changes If you could invest in one clean economy in 10 years’ time and from today’s world? technology through to 2027 which what do we need to get us there? would it be and why? In the future, investors will have We need to find ways of learnt that ecological limits can be Battery storage technologies, so incorporating ecological boundaries translated into financial risks and that we can allow for better grid into international accounting these risks pop up in nearly every management and to get power standards; into the listing rules of sector. when it is needed but from companies on stock exchanges, or renewable sources. how companies report through better Transformation is happening in the integrated reporting. energy and transportation sectors Are you optimistic or pessimistic - we need the same changes to about the future? happen in agricultural production, in We need fundamental water and fisheries management. I’m broadly optimistic. Although time reform of the whole financial is really against us. architecture of capital markets. The SDGs will have become mighty pillars through which investors can better understand the world of risk So no listing of logging companies and opportunity. or oil palm companies, or fisheries businesses without independent What three sustainability sustainable resource management challenges will be top of the plans or assessments of ecological agenda in 2027? limits; no more financing through debt or equity capital markets of Maintaining a stable climate will fossil fuel companies whose plans be critical, followed by establishing take the world above 2C of warming. sustainable food production systems. I want to put water in front of the And we’ll need to make sure that other two sometimes, I know that is the WTO rules sit beneath the Earth going to be crucial. Summit treaty obligations, not the other way around. To get us there, Will the world be on course for we need fundamental reform of the two degrees? whole financial architecture of I hope so, but fear we won’t be capital markets. able to bend the emissions curve downwards fast enough. Technology is a fix but it can’t save us in time - we may need new agreements to limit the supply of fossil fuels to ensure we keep below 2C.
27 ANNA GUYER
Where were you in 2007? Where do you expect to be in 2027?
I founded Greenhouse in 2007, with By 2027, I hope to be living in a world a mission to work with pioneers and that has embraced not just the urgent entrepreneurs to create positive social need for a green economy but also its and environmental change. huge potential. Anna Guyer is the founder and This was a personal response to a Today’s disruptive innovations and the director of Greenhouse PR, a powerful film made by the Christian fast-developing sharing economy are communications agency entirely NGO Tearfund, which told the story transforming the way we live and work, focused on accelerating the of families across Africa who could and with the current pace of change, transition to a sustainable and no longer live or farm on their land so much is possible. green economy. Previously, due to the huge impact of climate Anna was a Board Director at change. The film brought home the But we will still be living in an Hill & Knowlton and Trustee of consequences of climate change and unsustainable world. Ten years from Transition Towns. the disproportionate impact it has on now other challenges such as water the world’s poorest people. Even then shortages, air quality and biodiversity Greenhouse PR won it had already created thousands of will all be much higher up the agenda. BusinessGreen’s award for environmental refugees. Green PR Agency in both 2015 Greenhouse will still be working and 2016. It was a life-changing moment and I with the pioneers - businesses, decided that, however daunting the entrepreneurs and campaigners task, the focus of my work needed to who find opportunities in developing be addressing climate change and extraordinary solutions to these helping to create a more sustainable problems, whether that is using future. emerging technology to develop better services, developing a In the ten years since then, revolutionary new product or finding Greenhouse has worked with energy new and powerful ways to analyse pioneers using renewables and problems. battery storage to create a smart, cost- effective, low-carbon power system; There will still be just as much need transport pioneers launching electric to frame clear powerful messages and hydrogen cars and low-carbon about why their solutions matter to alternatives to diesel for HGVs; food people, business and the economy, pioneers promoting organic food and and to offer a compelling vision of a sustainable agriculture; and financial sustainable future. pioneers educating capital markets and investors about climate risk. Even small organisations can have a global impact when a powerful We have used our communications proposition is communicated well – expertise to help organisations have just look at the influence of Carbon more impact, raising awareness of Tracker as it has brought the concept the solutions they offer and why of the carbon bubble and stranded they are needed. We have enabled assets to policy makers, influencers them to reach policymakers and and investors on a global scale. investors, customers and consumers, encouraging people to wake up to the We need organisations to be brave, potential of the new green economy. to be focused, and to communicate effectively if we want to scale the change we need to see. 28 What is the most important lesson Will the world be on course for two We are well on the way to you have learned over the past 10 degrees in 2027? decarbonising power, but our years? electricity system will also need I think we have the knowledge and to support rapid growth of electric Do what you can where you can. Don’t technological capability to get there. vehicles over the next decade and procrastinate – get on and do it. The growth of renewables is now beyond. This will create even more unstoppable and that, combined with demand for solar and storage. Surround yourself with others who battery storage and electrification of share your values, who want to support transport, creates huge opportunities But I also have to champion the you in your mission. for transformation. protection of scarce resources - and in particular water and timber. It is The new green economy is a sharing, But governments and policy possible for us all to invest in the collaborative economy, full of intelligent, frameworks have a huge part to play. things that we care about. Water is passionate and fascinating people. So The also have the frustrating potential going to be such a critical issue that always learn from those around you to slow everything down. investing in its protection is critical. and collaborate and support others wherever you can. If you could invest in one clean What advice would you give to a technology through to 2027 which sustainability professional starting What is your vision for the green would it be and why? their job today? economy in 10 years’ time and what do we need to get us there? Solar power and battery storage - Recognise the power of good these are disruptive technologies communications. Business pioneers, I want us to create a thriving, which are growing exponentially technology entrepreneurs, and social smart, green economy that will be as costs continue to fall. They are enterprises are doing amazing things, regenerative and restorative for both fundamental to decarbonising our but they need help to take those ideas people and for the planet. economy and they offer real benefits to scale. to individuals and communities. We need governments and businesses We need more communicators to understand and recognise the value Solar panels on household roofs to share stories with networks of and importance of ecosystem services, linked to home batteries and electric influencers and decision makers, and become more accountable for their car batteries have huge potential mobilise support and accelerate the decisions and our footprint in the world. when they are managed in a virtual transition. power plant. Communities will soon We need financial markets to invest in be sharing the power they generate Are you optimistic or pessimistic the solutions that exist, shifting billions so that everyone saves money, and about the future? away from funding unsustainable earning further income by providing activities. There is growing awareness services to support the grid. I feel lucky to be a natural optimist, of ‘climate risk’ but not enough and I surround myself with people recognition of ‘climate opportunity’. We help people to see the who help me to sustain that. I am fortunate to work with entrepreneurs And ordinary people need to recognise potential and to realise and pioneers – people pushing the that their money can have real impact. that we all have significant boundaries of what’s possible – who We can all help shape the future by role to play in building a by their very nature, see a problem as choosing where we save and where our better, more rewarding and a reason or a catalyst to find a solution. pension is invested. There are many funds that support renewables, protect more sustainable world. Hope is a powerful motivator. It’s resources such as water and forests, too easy to feel powerless when address social inequality, and still get a At a network level, domestic and utility- confronted with the challenges we good financial return. scale storage will allow clean solar and face - that’s why we need to give wind power to provide an increasing people a positive and encouraging If we all invested just 10% of our savings proportion of our electricity. By vision of what the future can look like. and pensions in ethical and sustainable managing these in a smart grid we can funds, then individuals and institutions reduce the need for fossil fuel power We help people to see the potential could be investing billions in the change stations and cut the costs of running and to realise that we all have we need to see. the system. significant role to play in building a better, more rewarding and more sustainable world.
29 ANDREW HOWARD
Where were you in 2007? What has been the biggest obstacle to green finance over the past I was just starting out doing decade? sustainable investment back when it was beginning to become a ‘thing’. There was much less data around then compared to today. When I first started At the time I was at Goldman 20 years ago a lot of my colleagues Andrew Howard is head of Sachs starting a product called GS didn’t even use Excel and email was sustainable research for ESG SUSTAIN. It was a time where I would beginning to become something we at Schroders. say sustainable investment was thought about, but pretty much half beginning to emerge as something the people over about 45 couldn’t get Having started out as a metals which big investors and research their heads around it. and mining company analyst, firms were trying to work out how Andrew spent a year at Global to do – so it was on the radar, but Today we are awash with data, and Witness where he led the green was still at a very early stage in one of the challenges that creates is NGO’s global finance campaign terms of figuring out how to it tends to focus people onto a more from 2004-2005. approach the question. systematic way of doing investment analysis. What Schroders generally - He then worked as a How have things transformed over and personally as well - recognises management consultant at the past decade? is that it is very difficult to see where McKinsey and Co, before climate change fits into this. being appointed by Goldman The industry has changed a lot, but – Sachs as head of the research although I hate this phrase – I think Can we definitively say climate change team which helped launch GS we’re on a journey. We’ve come will have a direct or indirect impact on SUSTAIN in 2007 – a strategy from this situation where 10 years a company’s earnings over the next which sought to incorporate ESG ago we were beginning to see an 12-18 months, and if so, do we know factors into the company’s long- ESG industry as opposed to an SRI definitively how big that impact will be term investment plans. industry. What I mean by that is an in a way we can objectively model? industry which has historically been The reality is that no, we don’t. In 2014 he founded his own a niche part of our investment world independent research firm – was moving towards a recognition So while on the one hand I think Didas Research – before joining that this question of social and people understand climate change is Schroders in early 2016. environmental change wasn’t simply going to be an enormously important about ethics and responsibility, it social, economic, and investment was about understanding businesses issue over the next ffive, 10, 20 years, better and it’s something which is it is much harder for people to know relevant to all that we did, not just how to incorporate that understanding discreet funds. into day-to-day building of a model and making an investment conclusion. There is more recognition now that companies are not a set of numbers pulled out of an annual report, they are part of society. Successful companies succeed because they adapt to the social and environmental pressure they are part of, rather than by trying to shape the outcomes. They don’t succeed by running against the grain of social and environmental trends.
30 How have public and corporate What have been your biggest What are the biggest risks to attitudes changed towards climate personal and professional the success of the low-carbon change since 2007? achievements of the past decade? transition going forward?
I think attitudes have changed Well, I think my wife would kill me if I think there was a real danger massively. At a high level, this used to I didn’t say getting married and around the time of COP21 in Paris be something that was a bit optional having children. which introduced a degree of and unusual, and today it is pretty complacency that somehow it had much second nature. Not in every Having children has changed how I solved something. Paris was a lot country and age group, but it is look at climate change a lot. There of people agreeing something on becoming that. is this anti-decarbonisation tendency paper which didn’t actually change among people who won’t necessarily anything very much, and certainly I personally feel the ramifications of was becoming slightly concerned We are on the brink of an what is fairly clearly unfolding, but there was quite a lot of complacency exciting time ahead in however you want to look at it, there that somehow because the headlines terms of our industry and is a very clear understanding that this looked good at the time, people the green economy. is a risk we don’t need to take. Maybe said they had solved that problem thousands of scientists have got this and could therefore move onto wrong, but it is not a risk worth taking. something else. Ten years ago there were still It is particularly clear when you have questions about whether climate children and you think forward. Trump, ironically, with his statement change was definitely happening. around withdrawing from Paris If you look at now, that debate has Professionally, I personally don’t feel may have been the catalyst that largely passed – one or two very there is anything much in our industry galvanised action back into ‘well notable people aside. - and myself included - that shows a hang on, we probably ought to do particular single thing we can stick something’. Find me the CEO of a large our nail on and say we’ve done. We multinational company who says have more questions to answer than Are you hopeful for the future? anything other than ‘climate change we have already answered as an is a major challenge facing our industry. Personally and professionally, The short answer is always. society and the world economy, it is what I am here trying to do, and Absolutely. We are on the brink of an something that must be addressed, what Schroders is trying to do, is to exciting time ahead in terms of our and we are committed to addressing answer those questions that remain industry and the green economy. I it’. It may only be words, but it is very unanswered. just hope we can find solutions to difficult to say anything other than that those questions because we are today. thoughtful and far-thinking enough to find them in advance, rather than So I think there has been a real sea- picking up the pieces. change in how people think about the question. It has shifted from niche to mainstream, from something that some people think about, to something people almost don’t think about, because it has become second nature.
31 CAROLINE HILL
Where were you in 2007? Where do you expect to be in 2027?
Back in 2007 I was working at PwC in I don’t have a crystal ball. If you had their sustainability and climate change asked me that question back in 2007 team. I think PwC was really at the I don’t think I would have told you vanguard of sustainability consultancy I would have a team of 20 people and working with clients to think about looking after sustainability in the Caroline Hill is head of corporate responsibility strategies and UK’s largest property company. The sustainability at Landsec, the whole responsible business agenda. thought back then that a property the UK’s largest commercial company would have 20 people property company. Previously But I think there have been enormous dedicated to sustainability, I think that she spent more than a decade cahnges between 2007 and now. Back would have sounded ridiculous. at consultancy giant PwC, then it was unusual to be going to advising business clients on clients with the green agenda. Whereas So looking to the future and where corporate sustainability strategy. now I think clients are a lot more au fait I will be in 10 years’ time, who with it and understand it’s a key part of knows? But what I hope is that big how a business is run. business will really have sustainability embedded in the top level, so within What is the most important lesson executive committees and board level, you have learned over the last and it will be an integral part of the decade? way companies are run.
To make sustainability relevant to What is your vision for the green whoever you are talking to. There economy in 2027? are different levers you can use with different audiences. If you are going to We will see a massive rise in consumer speak to a CFO think about what their awareness. I think we are starting priorities are and how sustainability fits to see that in pockets but I think by and supports them. If you are going in 2027 people will have, for example, to speak to a marketing person, what air quality monitoring apps on their are your different messages there? mobile phones. They will know if their I think old school sustainability was work place is giving them air quality that they are happy with or not. So that kind of consumer activism, I Some of the jobs we do think, will be huge and will drive some now won’t exist in 10 years important improvements. because of the rapid rise of technology and AI. about having your environmental goals and trying to meet them. New- style sustainability is about how we run our businesses better, how we achieve resilience in our companies and be around in 10 or 20 years’ time. I suppose it’s a mindset shift. The general awareness of climate change and its relevance to business has gone through the roof in the last five years.
32 What will be the biggest changes to Do you think we will be on course Are you more or less optimistic today’s world? for two degrees? about the future today than you were 10 years ago? The nature of work will change hugely. It depends what day you ask me! Some of the jobs we do now won’t Some days I am an optimist. I love the I am more optimistic, because 10 exist in 10 years because of the rapid campaign that was part of New York years ago business and consumers rise of technology and AI. Climate Week this year about being generally weren’t even talking about a climate optimist. I think that kind of these issues. We haven’t done the I think we will see some really positive thinking, that we have to get action we need to do yet, but it’s at significant shifts to companies having on top of this, is essential. least on the table now. fewer direct employees, bigger supply chains, bigger pools of contractors But then other days I see research of they work with, so people have more where we are, and what is certain is flexible careers than they have now. that currently we are not on track to For sustainability professionals that meet those goals. means it is essential we really get on top of how we run sustainability But I think the awareness and desire through our supply chain now. to meet them is ever growing. They are still possible, but there is much What will the future sustainability more to do and technology has an challenges be? absolutely critical role to help us achieve that. Climate change resilience. I think we are just starting to see that come If you could invest in one clean in now, particularly with the Task technology through to 2027 what Force for Climate-related Financial would it be and why? Disclosure (TCFD) recommendations from the Financial Stability Board, Battery storage technology. Because but I think by 2027 stakeholders like I think we have seen some fantastic companies and cities will have to performances, particularly in the show how they are resilient against UK over the last few months’ from future changes. wind and solar, but when we start to combine technologies like solar with We are already starting to see in some batteries, that’s when I think we are cities the rise of the chief resilience really going to have a bit of a officer - I think that kind of thinking game-changer. around how cities, how companies are adapting to the changes that will sadly be taking place by 2027 will be huge.
33 MIKE BARRY
Where were you in 2007? Finally, it was about the business case for sustainability, making sure we very I joined M&S in 2000. So for the deliberately extracted value, both first two or three years it was just a economic and emotional, from doing question of getting some kind of basic the right thing in the right way. structure in place. It was a business Mike Barry is director of with a very good heart and soul, really How radical an agenda was that in Sustainable Business at good values, but we’d become a little 2007? bit out of touch with the new world of Marks & Spencer. NGOs and campaigning, and there There was a sense this was coming and was a bit of competition between the we got there at the right time before He was part of the small team retailers to become the most ethical. everybody else, but it wasn’t 10 years that developed and delivered ahead of everybody else. It was a year the company’s ground-breaking So the first two or three years was or two. Plan A initiative, a 100-point, a question of getting on top of the five-year plan to address a wide basic conversation with stakeholders A lot of those commitments we made range of environmental and and NGOs. Once we had that basic back in 2007, we didn’t know how we social issues. competence we started to win a few would deliver them by 2012. We made awards, and then an inspiring leader in some really bold goals, like 100 per Stuart Rose came into the business. cent sustainable wood in the business and 100 per cent sustainable fish. And Stuart was great because he said: ‘I when the five years came up in 2012, want to be at the heart of a revolution we missed a few of them. about how business conducts itself in the future. I expect Marks & Spencers But on a relative scale the NGOs to be at the very forefront of that turned around and said ‘well done M&S, revolution, not a follower or laggard. that’s better than anyone else’. What does that leadership mean?’ And he gave us a three-month homework question to work out what truly Plan A has just kept going, transformational leadership means in which is not always the sexy terms of responsible business. And thing in life, because you that was the genesis of the Plan A we know now. haven’t got a new splash, you are just getting on with At that starting point there were four what you said you would do. things that made it different. It was about systemically tackling all the issues. It was also about the whole During my time leading Plan A over value chain and the true impact of the last 10 years every retailer, every a retailer in its supply chain and in business, has had a splash and a the consumer’s home. Thirdly, it was programme has been launched, and about making sure it was integrated some of them have been very good. into the heart of the business, so it And then there’s a sense of hiatus, and wasn’t being run by a small team of there’s another programme, and then it auditors and professionals; there was goes quiet again. a sense from the start that everyone in the business should know their Plan A has just kept going, which is not contribution to Plan A. always the sexy thing in life, because you haven’t got a new splash, you are just getting on with what you said you would do. 34 What has been the biggest Do you feel more or less optimistic What’s your vision of the world in surprise in trying to implement the than in 2007? 2027? Plan A goals over the last decade? I feel more optimistic. Despite the very I want people to be consuming It’s been tough and challenging at real and growing evidence of climatic sustainable products and services times – it’s the reason I’ve got grey and social challenges the world faces. because they want to, not because hair! Sometimes we’ve known what I think almost things need to get worse there is a law saying they have got the solution is, it’s just been that we before they get better. I think what to do it, or a tax. I want people to can’t quite get as far as we want to makes me positive is the sense of be buying things, and using things, get to in the market, because we disruption that’s now happening in that are fundamentally better for haven’t quite got the money, the the sector. the planet, not just a little bit, but investment, or the time. dramatically so, because they I think what you are now starting to are better for the consumer and But the key thing about Plan A is we see - for example with Elon Musk and individual. have kept moving forward on every Tesla disrupting the car industry - are front. It’s very tempting to cherry-pick, some radical shifts in terms of product At heart I am an optimist. I think we and just say ‘let’s focus on Fairtrade, and service, the ability to deliver them stand at a crossroads, we do have or let’s focus on packaging’, and to the customer, and the customer’s a choice as to whether we turn left what Plan A has done is it kept willingness to engage with them. or right. And I think we have now everything moving forward at a good People are buying Teslas because they got sufficient compelling scientific strong pace. are beautiful aspirational cars that you evidence that business as usual want to be seen with, as opposed to will lead to a very difficult place for The great challenge that we had has grudgingly doing something because humanity. been about customer loyalty, and it’s the green option but realistically how do you connect your customer it’s uglier, it’s more expensive, it’s a The planet will survive perfectly well with all this wonderful work you compromise on how I would like to live without us, but our way of life might have done behind the scenes and my life. be significantly negatively impacted how much do they actually want to unless we change things dramatically. know? I think what we have found I think to become a truly sustainable from our customers is that they want society we have to find ways of really to know some of what we do, but exciting customers that the more they expect the vast majority to just sustainable options are actually the be done by us. ‘Don’t overwhelm us better ones for them as individuals, with a carbon label for every product rather than asking them to please do it or a label for every single issue’, because it’s the greener option. customers tell us. What will be the real challenges for businesses through to 2027? I think generally the fourth I think generally the fourth industrial industrial revolution, the revolution, the technology revolution technology revolution that’s that’s in our hands now, is critical. It in our hands now, is critical. can be a tremendous power for good, in everything from electric vehicles I think we have finally started to to drones, driverless cars and 3D find our competence and find our printing, AI and so on. Or it can be a feet this year – 10 years on – of tremendous power for bad. If a robot knowing exactly how to connect and can replace a human being, what communicate with our customers. kind of society have we got in terms But it’s taken us a bit longer than we of work? perhaps would have wanted. So I think the great challenge for the next decade is how we use that technology revolution to create a truly sustainable approach to consumption, as opposed to allowing things to become much worse than they are today. 35 ROBERTA BARBIERI
Where were you in 2007? What is your vision for the green economy in 10 years’ time and what In 2007, I was at Diageo, the global do we need to get us there? spirits and beer company. I was the environmental health and safety I think it’s going to take more than director for the Americas at the time 10 years to create a green economy. and over the course of that year, Right now, progress is too slow and Roberta Barbieri is vice I helped create Diageo’s first full-time, the true disruptors that could catalyse president of global water and global environmental sustainability progress are too few. We need more environmental solutions at role, and then I filled it. ‘Tesla-like’ big ideas to get us to a PepsiCo. green economy. So my job was then to set the She has 25 years’ experience company’s goals in carbon, zero In 10 years, we’ll have working in environmental waste to landfill and water efficiency, sustainability, including a stint made progress on water establish the working group to get at Diageo where she was the work done and launch the overall scarcity. So, among our top the principal architect of the sustainability programme. It was challenges will be slowing company’s sector-leading Global fantastic and fun. climate change, determining Environmental Sustainability strategy. a new role for plastics in the Where do you expect to be in 2027? world, and managing the effects of biodiversity loss and I expect to be working on next natural habitat destruction. generation sustainability goals - and to be driving global results on environmental goals. Whatever the What will be the biggest changes details are, what will be certain is from today’s world? that I’ll still be getting up every day striving to save the planet. I’ve been In 2027, the impacts of climate change doing it for years and will still be to our world will be more visible. There doing it in 2027. will be an even greater presence of plastics in the environment. What is the most important lesson you have learned over the past 10 years?
You have to set your own personal prize - and then keep your eyes on it at all times. My prize is to reduce our environmental impact. So if I stay focused on that outcome in all of my work, I get the job done and I also feel inspired as I do it. Once you determine what your prize is and focus on that outcome, in my experience, everything else falls into line.
36 Which three sustainability If you could invest in one clean challenges will be top of the technology through to 2027 which agenda in 2027? would it be and why?
In 10 years, we’ll have made progress I’d invest in breakthrough battery on water scarcity. So, among our top storage technology. Imagine if you challenges will be slowing climate could drive further without charging change, determining a new role for your vehicle as often. Imagine how plastics in the world, and managing payback periods will change if we the effects of biodiversity loss and could store solar or wind energy on natural habitat destruction. days that the wind doesn’t blow or the sun doesn’t shine. And if I had to choose another one to invest in, You have to be a raging it would be an innovation in carbon optimist to be in this field. If capture. I don’t know what that piece we’re successful, there’s of equipment is, but we need it. We need a safe way to capture carbon hope for a future in which and store it. humans are a constructive force on the earth, rather What advice would you give to a than a destructive one. sustainability professional starting their job today?
Will the world be on course for Embrace the ambiguity of what we two degrees in 2027? do. Get comfortable with it and get the job done in new ways. I think we are too late to save the world from a 2C change unless Are you optimistic or pessimistic someone somewhere figures out about the future? some amazing breakthrough. The new ‘prize’ in my opinion is to You have to be a raging optimist to adjust to what will be the new normal be in this field. If we’re successful, in 2027 and work hard to keep the there’s hope for a future in which change in temperatures to as low a humans are a constructive force on number as possible. the earth, rather than a destructive one.
37 SIMON BOAS HOFFMEYER
Where were you in 2007? A lot of our impact is outside our direct sphere of influence. Therefore we In 2007 I was studying for an MBA really looked beyond our own fences in China. I was comparing corporate into the supply chain. social responsibility (CSR) in China with Europe, and looking at how to Now I think with our new programme, Simon Boas Hoffmeyer ensure a knowledge transfer was Together Towards Zero, we have really is sustainability director happening from Europe to China. combined the best of all the things we at Carlsberg. Earlier this have learned in the past, and started year he launched Together So that was where I started off with looking at these long-term ambitions Towards Zero, a major new my more practical experience within and really connect that with medium sustainability strategy that sustainability, but at the same time I and short-term achievements in order will see the brewer target was actually working for Carlsberg in to keep up the momentum. their communications and company zero carbon emissions at its breweries worldwide by 2030. branding department, helping What is the most important lesson define the first Carlsberg Group CSR you have learned over the past 10 strategy. years?
So going forward to 2017, how has You need to integrate sustainability the approach evolved? into the business – a lot of people are talking about it, but really doing In 2007 we started getting our it involves engaging your internal house in order, aligning our policies colleagues in all the different parts by ensuring that in the company of the business. That is definitely we had minimum standards that something that we have become were adhered to, and also ensuring much better at over the years. really good structured reporting and communication of data from all of our In 2016 we did training sessions with subsidiaries across the world. more than 7,000 colleagues on our ethical behaviour, in our work with So in those first years we were society and sustainability, and how really focused on getting the CSR we interact with each other internally. framework up and running, including So we did real on-the-ground training governance in the business, to where we got so much great feedback ensure CSR was taken into account from colleagues, and that impacted on in all the business decisions. And the Together Towards Zero strategy. It then of course, publish annual really ensured a much better internal progress to stakeholders. alignment and actual integration than we have seen in the past years. After that we moved into a more topic-specific era, where we focused The difference was really being able on partnerships within packaging, to get from management senior level using the cradle-to-cradle design to real employee level. Mobilising framework, and working with and engaging employees, even suppliers through the Carlsberg where there might not be a direct community. impact, that is really valuable, and that provides a lot of input and excitement into projects that wouldn’t appear otherwise.
38 Where do you expect to be in 2027? Which three sustainability If you could invest in one clean challenges will be top of the agenda technology through to 2027 which Now that we have set out 2030 in 2027? would it be and why? targets I would expect I will be part of making sure that is brought to life - but The discussion around the planetary The Carlsberg Foundation has just of course you never know what will boundaries and all the different invested $80m in impact investments happen! I do think Together Towards aspects of that I think will be crucial. in sustainable agriculture, water Zero is an incredibly exciting journey For example, arable land for food technologies and low-carbon fuel over the next 13 years, and I would production - I think topsoil quality and alternatives. So they singled out hope to see it to the end in order to nutrients in our soils will be one of these three investment areas. If I ensure we achieve our targets and we the key topics, not only in 2027 but had that type of money I would have deliver the business and societal value probably earlier. done the same. that we set forward. I also think the issue of water will be What is your vision for the green key in ensuring access and high quality To be able to have an impact economy in 10 years’ time? of water. requires you as a sustainability professional to equally be 2027 is definitely past the point where And then there is the rare earth we should have seen gigantic strides minerals and metals in some of the a salesperson internally, a to achieving the SDGs and the Paris electronics we use – that will increase strong project manager, and Agreement. Those two activities, they in prominence over the coming years. have an insatiable interest are to me two of the most prominent in how the business works. current activities and visions for the Will the world be on course for two future that the world has set forth. degrees in 2027? What advice would you give to a So what I would expect in 2027 is that I think we will get there. For me, the sustainability professional starting we have actually moved beyond the tipping point was Paris. Regardless of their job today? Paris Agreement, and to some extent what some world leaders are saying, I the SDGs, and that we have started believe that we will reach it, and I also Remember that to be able to discussing planetary boundaries to a have faith in us reaching the more have an impact requires you as much larger extent. ambitious target of 1.5C. a sustainability professional to equally be a salesperson internally, And we will also in 2027 hopefully The reasons are many. I see a strong project manager, and have have seen the rate of innovation go commitment from businesses through, an insatiable interest in how the way beyond our expectations, meaning for example, the RE100, the We Mean business works. Those are three we will have technologies and abilities Business Coalition, and through the key things it takes to be a successful to live more sustainable lives as opportunity side of sustainability. That sustainability professional, because consumers and companies that we do has really made me an optimist. I also those are really the ingredients for not see in 2017. see the world uniting in general on, achieving things in a business. for example, the SDGs - just the fact What will be the biggest changes the SDGs were approved in the UN from today’s world? General Assembly unanimously is a very strong signal about us having a The speed at which we will be able to global vocabulary for sustainability and disseminate new technology I think will sustainable development. be much bigger. I’m not saying there won’t be difficult When you look at solar, when you look times ahead or actions carried out by at wind, when you look at these types world leaders or other companies that of renewable solutions, if they were go against this, but in general I am an invented in 2025 I think you would see optimist and have felt like that ever it reaching scale much faster. since I stood in Paris and witnessed the agreement being approved. So for me, that is likely to be the biggest change - our ability to quickly scale solutions that can make a real impact.
39 BOB HOLYCROSS
Where were you in 2007? What has been the biggest lesson you have learnt as a sustainability For Ford and the industry we were executive over the past 10 years? just getting in to the global financial crisis. We were on the cusp of our That’s a really important question, global transformation programme. lessons learnt are always important. It was very different to the For us and Ford, and even for Bob Holycross is vice president transformation we are going through me personally, recognising the of Sustainability, Environment today; we were really on the cusp of importance of integrity in the process and Safety Engineering for figuring out how to survive. has been an important lesson. It Ford in Europe, Middle East is not just about the products and and Africa. He is responsible At the same time, sustainability services you produce and offer, but for the development and wasn’t a new thing for us even in the manner in how you do it. Ford implementation of the 2007. We have been doing formal has been recognised as one of the company’s environment and sustainability reporting as far back most ethical companies through the safety strategy, policy and as 2000 and given our heritage and work Ethisphere has done. I think performance in Europe. legacy sustainability has always our sustainability reporting and the played a prominent role in the transparency that we have continued Previously, he was director company in one form or another. to provide is important. of Global Certification and Program Compliance for Ford’s Where would you expect to be in Sustainability, Environment and 2027? Innovation has to be Safety Engineering organisation. there by default. If you look 10 years from now, we He has chaired government would see ourselves very much and industry committees, on the leading edge of being an Integrity matters and we have seen testified before federal and automobile and mobility company. in our industry where that has been state government bodies on And by that time the broader industry challenged. I think that can be a big environmental and energy might even be described in terms of wake up call for some, that if you matters, and moderated third- the overall mobility operating system. don’t do it the right way some of the party technical panels through metrics may improve, but that really organisations such as the For us, our goal over the next five or won’t make a difference if people Society of Automotive 10 years is to be front and centre in aren’t buying your products because Engineers (SAE) and the US that discussion. The real thing for us you are not doing it with the right level Chamber of Commerce. is how we continuously innovate to of integrity. deliver all the products that can make that work.
By 2027 we will see a lot more products that are electrified, we should see smarter vehicles, vehicles that are connected to the cloud and each other. With the work we are already doing in that space, the goal would be to have all those technologies penetrate as much of the way through the fleet as possible.
40 What do we need to do to deliver on Do you think we will be on track to What advice would you give to a the vision of a cleaner, smarter fleet keep temperature increases below sustainability executive starting over the next decade? 2C by 2027? their career today?
Innovation has to be there by default. I like to think we’ll be on course. But The one thing for me has been Beyond that it is a question of how whether or not we are on track is not the need to embed yourself in the do we connect the right government going to change what we try to do. We operations of the company. You can’t policies globally, given the societal will be working to continue to improve think of sustainability as what you do concerns around air quality and fleet efficiency and electrification year after the product has been designed congestion. over year. In addition to regulatory or manufactured. There isn’t some targets we also set our targets sustainability widget you bolt on The toughest thing we have seen with complimentary to 2C or the 450ppm at the end, you have to integrate it electrification has been the difficulty of stabilisation concentration. throughout the product design cycle matching the ambitions of regulatory and the operations. That has been targets with customer demand. In If you could invest in one clean the most exciting part of my role. some cases we have had experience technology through to 2027 what The other thing is you need to keep with technology mandates in the US would it be? an open and curious mind. The pace in particular where we recognise what of change is phenomenal and you the goals are and where we need to That’s a tough one, as there’s no have to stay curious to be effective. get to, but if we have policies that are silver bullet and I know this will be the too short-sighted or too tech-specific expected answer. But when I look at Are you and optimist or a the risk is we bring in technologies it I think about vehicle connectivity. pessimist for the next decade? too early that don’t resonate with The ability of vehicles to connect with customers. Then the brand of those one another and with the transport I am absolutely an optimist. When technologies is damaged even if you infrastructure - the investment in that you are going through a big then make progress. technology is really going to be the transformation and there is that level foundation for everything else. To of uncertainty you can be pessimistic This isn’t about resisting increasing the get at these issues like congestion or scared to take the leap. But I am pace of electrification, it is trying to do and ride services and the underlying optimistic because we have the best it in a manner that considers all the mobility operating system, that people in the industry, we have the broader requirements and use cases. connectivity will be key. financial foundation, and we have the leadership. It’s not as simple as putting a modem There isn’t some sustainability in the car, there are considerations for I am an engineer by training and widget you bolt on at the cyber security and privacy and how I still continue to be amazed with vehicles react on the fly. It is a very the ingenuity I see with some of the end, you have to integrate it complex web of innovation we will new technologies our engineers are throughout the product design have to work through, but I consider coming up with. When you see that cycle and the operations. that to be a key enabler for clean innovation, you can’t be anything but technology. optimistic. One example for us is, as we are making investments in products for 2020 and beyond, we have to look at investments that will be required in infrastructure to charge vehicles. We have entered into a partnership with a number of companies in Germany to look at the high-speed charging network on motorways. We are going to have to work with others in the industry and with policymakers to make all of this work.
41
KATE WYLIE
Where were you in 2007? What is your vision for the green economy in 10 years’ time? I was at Ebay working on the sustainability strategy there. The First of all, let’s all just sign up to world then was still exploring what the ‘what’. Let’s assume we all agree sustainability was. You had to do a lot on climate science, then let’s sign more explaining of the fundamentals. companies up to Science-Based Kate Wylie is global Targets (SBTs), and then let’s try and sustainability director at Mars, Whereas now everybody drive leadership on the ‘how’. where she led this year’s understands climate change, launch of its Sustainable in a understands water scarcity, at a high Generation strategy. With 15 level at least, and there’s much We will need a much more years’ experience in corporate more focus on the ‘how’, rather than open and honest dialogue sustainability under her belt, the ‘what’. about what is working and Wylie has helped shape environmental strategy for the What is the most important lesson what is not working. That’s likes of eBay, Barclays, and Etsy. you have learned over the last 10 a challenge. Companies years? are very used to talking
How to drive change within a about the good things! business. One of the most important lessons I have learnt is to put We are going to enter some really myself in the shoes of the people interesting forms of collaboration in I am working with. You need order to get there, particularly when to understand where someone you start looking at issues like water. is coming from if they are in procurement, or if they’re a general What will be the biggest changes manager running a business unit, or from today’s world? the CEO of an organisation. I think what we will start to see more Put yourself in their shoes and and more is that sustainability will understand their needs, and then either become standard operating work together on how you can procedures, or a standard part of deliver change. products and services - so consumers might not even know about it - or it will Where do you expect to be in become standard in a way that they 2027? do know about it and they can just talk about it naturally. I would love to still be working in this area, to look back on the last 10 years and be very proud of the delivery both that I have helped lead and seen others lead.
42 What top three sustainability Will the world be on course for two If you could invest in one clean challenges will be top of the agenda degrees? technology through to 2027 which in 2027? would it be and why? I’m very positive about this. Particularly I think today the challenge is still with the energy that we saw from I would go for renewables in getting people aligned on the SBTs, Climate Week NYC. emerging markets. Because I think but in the future everybody will there is such growth potential there have signed up, everybody will be when you look at how it’s developed driving that charge, and we will be This area is going to get in other countries. My husband also getting much more technical. For much more technical. If you works in it too, which helps! example, when you are working at look at the journey we have the watershed level, when you have What advice would you give to a farmers who are both upstream and gone on, 15 years ago I was sustainability professional starting downstream, how does that actually explaining to people what a their job today? work when you’re trying to address carbon offset was and what water challenges? This area is going to get much more climate change was. Then you technical. If you look at the journey went into ‘well, is it relevant Secondly, we will need a much more we have gone on, 15 years ago I was open and honest dialogue about what for business?’ Now we are into, explaining to people what a carbon is working and what is not working. ‘OK, what do we need to do? offset was and what climate change That’s a challenge. Companies are very was. Then you went into ‘well, is it used to talking about the good things! relevant for business?’ Now we are I think that’s something Mars hopefully The number of companies on track to into, ‘OK, what do we need to do?’ has created a safe space for - to start do this, some of the innovation that is discussing some of the complexity starting to happen now in technology, I think the next stage is the ‘how’, and how we can have an open and the leadership we are seeing, and the and the technical side of things. So honest dialogue together to solve fact the business case is there. That all for people starting out now, I would those problems. gives cause for optimism. always recommend they bring in one area of technical expertise as a Thirdly, there will be a lot more foundation that you can build on. evidence on the win-win for business. That again will be standard practice, and it will be more about the laggards behind helping catch up on that.
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JAMES MURRAY
Where were you in 2007? What is the most important lesson you have learned over the past 10 I was working on the launch of years? BusinessGreen, building the reach of the blog that it grew out of, and Twitter is a huge drain on daily working with the team at Incisive productivity. Media to deliver the full website. James Murray is editor-in-chief More seriously, I think my of BusinessGreen, having led It was a lot of work, especially when understanding of the all- the brand’s editorial coverage you consider we were launching encompassing nature of the low- for the past decade. into what would turn out to be carbon transformation is the single some pretty horrendous economic biggest lesson. He co-founded BusinessGreen headwinds. in 2007 and has overseen the Too many people still don’t understand website’s expansion and the But we are still here and still growing the scale of the risk and the scale development of BusinessGreen’s a decade on, and I like to think we of the opportunity we face. Naomi events and commercial offering have delivered on our vision to Klein called her book on climate since then. provide the green economy with the change This Changes Everything, news and analysis it needs. It would and while I don’t agree with all her A journalist since 2002, he also be nice to think we’ve played a analysis, it is a brilliant title, because comments widely on the green small role in helping to push green the climate crisis really should change economy, clean technology, and economic thinking into the media everything. We, as a green economy the climate crisis. and corporate mainstream. and environmental campaigners, still haven’t worked out how to Where do you expect to be in communicate the immense reach of 2027? the clean industrial revolution that is already underway. Who knows? The economy and the media industry are changing so fast it is hard to look too far ahead. I’ll still There is some fascinating work be working on environmental issues going on in material science in some capacity though – that’s - light-weighting materials, a life-long project now that I can’t graphene, sustainable ever see myself walking away from. plastics, manufacturing from And I still love writing and learning from fascinating people, so if I can captured carbon. It’s not continue to combine those passions particularly glamorous, but it I’ll be pretty happy. could be transformational.
The other big lesson is the carbon bubble hypothesis – the unanswerable logic of that argument really should prove to be a game- changer and every economics and MBA course on the planet should be teaching it.
44 What is your vision for the green Will the world be on course for What advice would you give to a economy in 10 years’ time and two degrees? sustainability professional starting what do we need to get us there? their job today? I doubt it, which is why negative By 2027 we need to be clean and emissions technology is so important. I’m afraid it would be all the same old ultra-low carbon in the areas where patronising stuff that people in the we know how to decarbonise. That If you could invest in one clean workplace always tell young people means an extremely low-carbon grid, technology through to 2027, entering the workplace. Work really built around renewables and some which would it be and why? hard on mastering the basic skillset – nuclear (assuming Hinkley Point is learn how to write and communicate online by then). It means electric The obvious choices would be solar and work well as part of a team. Keep vehicles with long ranges dominating and storage due to their remarkable reading. These issues are evolving the national fleet, and it means a step cost reduction curves. But if you too fast to ever think you have got change in energy efficiency. want an investment tip I suppose a handle on it. And recognise that you want an area that is undervalued while you are engaged in a project That needs to be accompanied by a currently. There is some fascinating of epic importance, not everyone sharp increase in R&D spend in the work going on in materials science - understands that, so finding areas where decarbonisation will be light-weighting materials, graphene, effective ways to make the case for difficult, such as aviation and industry. sustainable plastics, manufacturing sustainable action is crucial. from captured carbon. It’s not The good news is all of that is entirely particularly glamorous, but it could Are you optimistic or pessimistic deliverable if the transition is finally be transformational. about the future? treated with the urgency it requires by business and political leaders. A I also think we’ll see a lot of important I’m quietly pessimistic, I think, but few more Teslas and a strengthening innovation around business models as a relatively new parent I find that of the Paris Agreement around 2020 and financing models. There’s hard to admit. We’ve made immense could put us on track. That is why I been a huge amount written about progress in the past decade, but we am so worried about Brexit, it risks the servicification of the economy have not gone far enough or fast distracting everyone from what and that could continue to be the enough, and Trump and co feels like needs to be done just as we enter dominant story of the next decade. a pretty serious backlash. this crucial decade. Related to that is the recognition that if we can get financial services right I got quite frustrated recently at the What three sustainability we can remove the cost barriers to #climateoptimist campaign, which challenges will be top of the clean technologies. to me, perhaps unfairly, felt like an agenda in 2027? attempt to gloss over the scale of the challenge we face and a promotion I’m hoping the agenda will be The amazing businesses and of the idea that if we all just believe dominated by the next phase of technologies we write about hard enough that everything will decarbonisation, rather than a every day do allow for some be OK then we will all be fine. continuation of the tired debate optimism to break through. Unfortunately, it is going to require a about the efficacy and cost of lot more than that. existing clean technologies. If I still have to write pieces in 2027 I’m also excited by some of the That said, the amazing businesses explaining that electric vehicles and moon-shot ideas. We need to find a and technologies we write about wind farms won’t actually crash the way to capture atmospheric carbon every day do allow for some grid then we’re all screwed. emissions and we are long overdue optimism to break through. We do a technology revolution in agriculture. have many of the technologies So I hope by 2027 the debate is Both areas could offer fertile territory we need to decarbonise. The focused on curbing emissions from for investors. mission now is accelerating their agriculture or delivering genuinely development and tearing down the green flight or making scalable barriers to deployment. negative emissions technologies a reality. I also fear we are going to Someone mentioned the old Gramsci be talking a lot more about climate line recently, ‘pessimism of the resilience by then – that seems intellect, optimism of the will’. That tragically inevitable. feels about right.
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