HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED
This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc. of Jacksonville, Florida from October 3 through October 9, 2018. A total of 625 registered voters in Florida’s 26th Congressional District were interviewed by telephone. All indicated they were “likely to vote” in the November general election
Those interviewed were randomly selected from a phone-matched Florida voter registration list from that included both land-line and cell phone numbers.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ± 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or age grouping.
1 Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – Telemundo Florida Congressional District 26 Poll
NAME RECOGNITION
Do you recognize the name ______? (IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ______?
RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE DON'T FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NEUTRAL RECOGNIZE
CONG DISTRICT 26
Carlos Curbelo 43% 35% 17% 5%
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell 34% 25% 18% 23%
GOVERNOR
Andrew Gillum 39% 28% 16% 17%
Ron DeSantis 33% 33% 15% 19%
SENATE
Bill Nelson 46% 33% 13% 8%
Rick Scott 41% 39% 16% 4%
Donald Trump 41% 46% 13% -
2 Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – Telemundo Florida Congressional District 26 Poll
QUESTION: If the 2018 election for Florida’s U.S. Senate seat were held today, would you vote for Bill Nelson, the Democrat, or Rick Scott, the Republican?
NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED
DISTRICT 51% 43% 6%
SEX NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED
Men 46% 48% 6% Women 55% 39% 6%
AGE NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED
<50 53% 38% 9% 50+ 49% 47% 4%
RACE/ETHNICITY NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED
White 65% 32% 3% Black 93% 4% 3% Hispanic 38% 54% 8%
HISPANIC ORIGIN NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED
Cuban 23% 71% 6% Non-Cuban 66% 22% 12%
PARTY REGISTRATION NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED
Democrat 88% 6% 6% Republican 10% 86% 4% Independent 52% 41% 7%
3 Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – Telemundo Florida Congressional District 26 Poll
QUESTION: If the 2018 election for governor were held today, would you vote for:
- Andrew Gillum – Democrat - Ron DeSantis – Republican - Darcy Richardson – Reform Party - Ryan Foley – No Party Affiliation - Kyle “KC” Gibson – No Party Affiliation - Bruce Stanley – No Party Affiliation
GILLUM DESANTIS OTHERS UNDECIDED
DISTRICT 46% 39% 2% 13%
SEX GILLUM DESANTIS OTHERS UNDECIDED
Men 41% 44% 1% 14% Women 50% 34% 3% 13%
AGE GILLUM DESANTIS OTHERS UNDECIDED
<50 52% 32% 2% 14% 50+ 42% 44% 2% 12%
RACE/ETHNCITY GILLUM DESANTIS OTHERS UNDECIDED
White 46% 31% 5% 18% Black 87% - - 13% Hispanics 39% 49% 1% 11%
HISPANIC ORIGIN GILLUM DESANTIS OTHERS UNDECIDED
Cuban 24% 66% - 10% Non-Cuban 67% 17% 2% 14%
PARTY REGISTRATION GILLUM DESANTIS OTHERS UNDECIDED
Democrat 81% 6% 2% 11% Republican 7% 80% 1% 12% Independent 46% 33% 3% 18%
4 Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – Telemundo Florida Congressional District 26 Poll
QUESTION: If the 2018 election for the 26th Congressional District U.S. House seat were held today, would you vote for:
- Debbie Mucarsel-Powell - Democrat - Carlos Curbelo - Republican
MUCARSEL-POWELL CURBELO UNDECIDED
DISTRICT 45% 46% 9%
SEX MUCARSEL-POWELL CURBELO UNDECIDED
Men 36% 52% 12% Women 53% 41% 6%
AGE MUCARSEL-POWELL CURBELO UNDECIDED
<50 46% 41% 13% 50+ 44% 50% 6%
RACE/ETHNCITY MUCARSEL-POWELL CURBELO UNDECIDED
White 51% 34% 15% Black 83% 10% 7% Hispanics 36% 57% 7%
HISPANIC ORIGIN MUCARSEL-POWELL CURBELO UNDECIDED
Cuban 22% 74% 4% Non-Cuban 62% 25% 13%
PARTY REGISTRATION MUCARSEL-POWELL CURBELO UNDECIDED
Democrat 83% 11% 6% Republican 3% 88% 9% Independent 46% 43% 11%
COUNTY MUCARSEL-POWELL CURBELO UNDECIDED
Miami-Dade County 46% 45% 9% Monroe County 40% 54% 6%
5 Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – Telemundo Florida Congressional District 26 Poll
QUESTION: Which one of the following do you feel is the most important issue facing the country today? (ORDER ROTATED)
DISTRICT HISPANIC NON-HISPANIC
Immigration 22% 22% 23% The Economy & Jobs 18% 19% 17% Healthcare 13% 13% 14% Russian Collusion & Removing Trump from office 9% 9% 8% National Security & Foreign Policy Issues 8% 11% 6% Taxes, Government Spending & the National Debt 7% 7% 6% Guns Rights & Gun Control 6% 6% 5% Environment/Climate Change 5% 1% 11% Supreme Court Appointments 3% 3% 3% Social issues, such as Abortion & Same Sex Marriage 2% 2% 1% Other (NOT READ) 3% 3% 3% Not Sure (NOT READ) 4% 4% 3%
6 Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – Telemundo Florida Congressional District 26 Poll
QUESTION: In general, do you feel things in the country are on the right track or are they on the wrong track?
RIGHT TRACK WRONG TRACK NOT SURE
DISTRICT 48% 39% 13%
SEX RIGHT TRACK WRONG TRACK NOT SURE
Men 53% 38% 9% Women 44% 40% 16%
AGE RIGHT TRACK WRONG TRACK NOT SURE
<50 42% 42% 16% 50+ 52% 37% 11%
RACE/ETHNICITY RIGHT TRACK WRONG TRACK NOT SURE
White 40% 44% 16% Black 17% 66% 17% Hispanic 56% 33% 11%
HISPANIC ORIGIN RIGHT TRACK WRONG TRACK NOT SURE
Cuban-American 67% 22% 11% Non-Cuban 35% 52% 13%
PARTY REGISTRATION RIGHT TRACK WRONG TRACK NOT SURE
Democrat 21% 65% 14% Republican 78% 12% 10% Independent 49% 38% 13%
7 Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – Telemundo Florida Congressional District 26 Poll
QUESTION: Compared to a year ago, would you say you are more confident about the economy, less confident about the economy, or do you feel about the same?
MORE LESS SAME NOT SURE
DISTRICT 44% 25% 28% 3%
SEX MORE LESS SAME NOT SURE
Men 50% 21% 26% 3% Women 39% 28% 30% 3%
AGE MORE LESS SAME NOT SURE
<50 37% 29% 31% 3% 50+ 49% 22% 26% 3%
RACE/ETHNICITY MORE LESS SAME NOT SURE
White 35% 33% 26% 6% Black 13% 47% 37% 3% Hispanic 53% 18% 27% 2%
HISPANIC ORIGIN MORE LESS SAME NOT SURE
Cuban-American 63% 11% 25% 1% Non-Cuban 35% 31% 31% 3%
PARTY REGISTRATION MORE LESS SAME NOT SURE
Democrat 19% 50% 28% 3% Republican 79% 4% 16% 1% Independent 35% 17% 44% 4%
8 Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – Telemundo Florida Congressional District 26 Poll
QUESTION: In December 2017, the “Tax Cuts and Jobs Act” was signed into law, which cut income rates, increased the standard deduction but repealed some personal exemptions. To date, do you feel you have or have not benefitted from this tax cut legislation?
YES, HAVE NO, HAVE NOT NOT SURE
DISTRICT 31% 48% 21%
SEX YES, HAVE NO, HAVE NOT NOT SURE
Men 36% 45% 19% Women 26% 51% 23%
AGE YES, HAVE NO, HAVE NOT NOT SURE
<50 27% 53% 20% 50+ 34% 45% 21%
RACE/ETHNICITY YES, HAVE NO, HAVE NOT NOT SURE
White 16% 61% 23% Black 7% 70% 23% Hispanic 41% 39% 20%
HISPANIC ORIGIN YES, HAVE NO, HAVE NOT NOT SURE
Cuban-American 50% 32% 18% Non-Cuban 24% 52% 24%
PARTY REGISTRATION YES, HAVE NO, HAVE NOT NOT SURE
Democrat 10% 67% 23% Republican 57% 23% 20% Independent 27% 52% 21%
9 Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – Telemundo Florida Congressional District 26 Poll
QUESTION: Do you support or oppose implementing government-managed, single-payer free health insurance known as “Medicare for All”?
SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED
DISTRICT 63% 29% 8%
SEX SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED
Men 56% 34% 10% Women 69% 24% 7%
AGE SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED
<50 74% 18% 8% 50+ 55% 37% 8%
RACE/ETHNICITY SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED
White 57% 32% 11% Black 90% 4% 6% Hispanic 61% 32% 7%
HISPANIC ORIGIN SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED
Cuban-American 52% 42% 6% Non-Cuban 78% 13% 9%
PARTY REGISTRATION SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED
Democrat 87% 10% 3% Republican 33% 54% 13% Independent 65% 25% 10%
10 Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – Telemundo Florida Congressional District 26 Poll
QUESTION: Which of the following three statements comes closest to your view?
- I want my vote in November to support the direction President Trump is leading the nation. - I want my vote in November to change the direction President Trump is leading the nation. - My vote this November doesn’t have much to do with President Trump and his policies.
SUPPORT CHANGE NOT MUCH NOT SURE
DISTRICT 33% 47% 18% 2%
SEX SUPPORT CHANGE NOT MUCH NOT SURE
Men 41% 41% 15% 3% Women 26% 52% 21% 1%
AGE SUPPORT CHANGE NOT MUCH NOT SURE
<50 23% 57% 18% 2% 50+ 41% 39% 18% 2%
RACE/ETHNICITY SUPPORT CHANGE NOT MUCH NOT SURE
White 12% 61% 26% 1% Black 4% 73% 23% - Hispanic 46% 37% 14% 3%
HISPANIC ORIGIN SUPPORT CHANGE NOT MUCH NOT SURE
Cuban 57% 27% 13% 3% Non-Cuban 25% 56% 15% 4%
PARTY REGISTRATION SUPPORT CHANGE NOT MUCH NOT SURE
Democrat 9% 73% 17% 1% Republican 70% 8% 19% 3% Independent 31% 51% 17% 1%
11 Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – Telemundo Florida Congressional District 26 Poll
QUESTION: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the Trump administration’s handling of U.S. immigration policy?
APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
DISTRICT 35% 57% 8%
SEX APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
Men 39% 54% 7% Women 31% 60% 9%
AGE APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
<50 31% 60% 9% 50+ 38% 55% 7%
RACE/ETHNICITY APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
White 23% 66% 11% Black 16% 77% 7% Hispanic 43% 50% 7%
HISPANIC ORIGIN APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
Cuban-American 51% 42% 7% Non-Cuban 29% 64% 7%
PARTY REGISTRATION APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
Democrat 10% 84% 6% Republican 67% 24% 9% Independent 31% 59% 10%
12 Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – Telemundo Florida Congressional District 26 Poll
QUESTION: Do you believe President Trump should or should not be impeached and removed from office?
SHOULD SHOULD NOT NOT SURE
DISTRICT 39% 54% 7%
SEX SHOULD SHOULD NOT NOT SURE
Men 34% 60% 6% Women 43% 49% 8%
AGE SHOULD SHOULD NOT NOT SURE
<50 46% 49% 5% 50+ 34% 58% 8%
RACE/ETHNICITY SHOULD SHOULD NOT NOT SURE
White 45% 41% 14% Black 73% 24% 3% Hispanic 31% 64% 5%
HISPANIC ORIGIN SHOULD SHOULD NOT NOT SURE
Cuban-American 20% 76% 4% Non-Cuban 51% 42% 7%
PARTY REGISTRATION SHOULD SHOULD NOT NOT SURE
Democrat 73% 19% 8% Republican 7% 87% 6% Independent 31% 62% 7%
13 Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – Telemundo Florida Congressional District 26 Poll
DEMOGRAPHICS
PARTY REGISTRATION:
Democrat 232 (37%) Republican 208 (33%) Independent or Other 185 (30%)
AGE: 18-34 120 (19%) 35-49 152 (24%) 50-64 181 (29%) 65+ 166 (27%) Refused 6 (1%)
RACE/ETHNICITY: White/Caucasian 148 (24%) Black/African American 70 (11%) Hispanic or Cuban 394 (63%) Other 8 (1%) Refused 5 (1%)
HISPANIC ORIGIN: Cuban 255 (65%) Non-Cuban 139 (35%)
SEX: Male 290 (46%) Female 335 (54%)
COUNTY: Miami-Dade County 535 (86%) Monroe County 90 (14%)
14 Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – Telemundo Florida Congressional District 26 Poll