Annexes to Report on Training Workshop
Challengees and Approaches in River Delta Planning
Sharing experiences from SE Asian Deltas and the Rhine- Meuse Delta
22-26 October 2012
The Centre of Water Management and Climate Change (WACC) at Vietnam National University, Ho Chi Minh Citty, Vietnam
Organized by UNESCO-IHE, Wageningen UR, Deltares and Vietnam National University.
Funded by the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment (I&M), Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs, Agriculture and Innovation (EL&I), the UNESCO-IHE DGIS Programmatic Cooperation (DUPC) and Vietnam National University.
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Table of Contents
Annex 1. Programme ...... 3 Annex 2. Participants ...... 5 Annex 3. Introduction to the workshop and flow of the working sessions ...... 12 Annex 4. Training material ...... 13 Annex 5. Outcomes working sessions ...... 14 Annex 6. Daily recapitulation ...... 15 Annex 7. Workshop evaluation ...... 16
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Annex 1. Programme
Programme (Part 1)
Monday 22 October Tuesday 23 October Wednesday 24 October 'Introduction, issues and 'Delta planning approaches' 'Delta themes' challenges' (field visit) 08.30 - 09.00 Registration Recap previous day (participant) 09.00 - 10.00 Opening and welcome Delta planning approaches Mekong Delta Tour (My Tho – (Prof. Le Quang Minh, Royal (Wim Douven) Ben Tre): Neth. Embassy mr. Martien Pick up at hotel 07:30 AM, travel Beek) by bus to My Tho – 9:30 AM, board a wooden motor boat to Introduction participants and Unicorn Island. Along the river’s programme bank, you’ll be passing through (Wim Douven, Henk Wösten, Ho natural creeks and quiet villages Long Phi) and watch rural people going to 10.00 - 11.00 Challenges of the Mekong delta Scenario development: work. You will see an interesting development and planning biophysical and socio-economic fishermen's port, stilt houses. One implications (Ho Long Phi) (Fulco Ludwig) of the boat’s stops during this trip is at a large orchard that has many 11.00 - 11.30 Break Break different types of tasty tropical 11.30 - 12.30 Enabling delta life. What makes Workshop scenarios construction fruits for your enjoyments. managing land and water in deltas Another boat stop is for the Turtle different? (Marcel Marchand) Island 1 hr from the previous one. 12:30 - 13:30 Lunch Lunch Here, on a small row boat, you’ll 13.30 - 14.30 Presentation of deltas issues and Workshop scenarios construction see interesting transportation challenges: (Continued) modes that local people use to move around. From there, you’ll - Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta visit a bee farm where you have a 14.30 - 15.30 (Khan) Climate change adaptation and chance to taste a tasteful cup of - Ciliwung Delta (participant) tipping points (Fulco Ludwig/ authentic honey tea while - Irrawady delta (Win Hlaing) Marcel Marchand) checking out the folk music that - Rhine-Meuse Delta (Marcel is typical to only the people in Marchand) Southern Vietnam. After that 15.30 - 16.00 Break Break you’ll go to a village to witness 16.00 - 17.00 Presentation of deltas Mekong Delta Plan how village people make candy (Continued) (Martijn vd. Groep, CTA Dutch and handcrafted items from advisory team) coconuts. 17.00 - 17.15 Clarification and discussion Clarification and discussion .
Evening Diner Free Free
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Programme (Part 2)
Thursday 25 October Friday 26 October 'Delta themes' 'Synergizing and conclusions'
08.30 - 09.00 Recap previous day (participant) 09.00 - 10.00 Workshop delta issues Plenary feed-back from delta 10.00 - 11.00 themes. Parallel groups by theme: - upstream delta
- urban - coastal 11.00 - 11.30 Break Break 11.30 - 12.30 Cross-cutting issues: Discussion strategies, - Land use/urban dynamics (Assela interdependencies strategies at Pathirana) delta scale and implementation - Sedimentation (Marcel issues. Marchand) - Salt water agriculture (Henk Wösten) 12:30 - 13:30 Lunch Lunch 13.30 - 14.30 Workshop delta strategies Discussion Forum / CoP for knowledge networking 14.30 - 15.30 Parallel groups by theme: Evaluation training workshop - upstream delta Certificates and closure - urban - coastal 15.30 - 16.00 Break Break Workshop delta strategies - (Continued) 17.00 - 17.15 Clarification and discussion - Evening Diner Free
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Annex 2. Participants
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No. Photo Information Name: Wim Douven Country: The Netherland City: Delft 1 Email: [email protected] Organization: UNESCO-IHE Position: Associate Professor IRBM
Name: Henk Wösten Country: The Netherland City: Wageningen 2 Email: [email protected] Organization: Alterra - Wageningen UR
Name: Fulco Ludwig Country: The Netherland City: Wageningen 3 Email: [email protected] Organization: Wageningen University
4 Name: Marcel Marchand Country: The Netherland City: Delft Email: [email protected] Organization Deltares
Name: Assela Pathirana Country: Sri Lanka 5 City: Delft Email: [email protected] Organization: UNESCO-IHE
Name: Ho Long Phi Country: Vietnam 6 City: Ho Chi Minh City Email: [email protected] Organization: Centre of water management and climate change (WACC) at Vietnam National University
7 Name: Chau Nguyen Xuan Quang Country: Vietnam City: Ho Chi Minh City Email: [email protected] Organization: Centre of water management and climate change (WACC) at Vietnam National University
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8 Name: Md. Reaz Uddin Khan Country: Bangladesh City: Dhaka Email: [email protected] Organization: Institute of Water Modelling
9 Name: Malik Fida Abdullah Khan Country: Bangladesh City: Dhaka Email: [email protected] Organization: Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services
10 Name: Mohammad Aminur Rahman Shah Country: Bangladesh City: Dhaka Email: [email protected] Organization: International Union for Conservation of Nature, Bangladesh Country Office
11 Name: Md. Alauddin Hossain Country: Bangladesh City: Faridpur Email: [email protected] Organization: River Research Institute
12 Name: Naeema Jihan Zinia Country: Bangladesh City: Dhaka Email: [email protected] Organization: Southeast University
Name: Md. Nasif Ahsan 13 Country: Bangladesh City: Khulna Email: [email protected] Organization: Khulna University, Bangladesh
14 Name: Syeda Sajeda Haider Country: The Netherland City: Dhaka Email: [email protected] Organization: n.a.
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15 Name: Yuliana Susilowati Country: Indonesia City: Bandung Email: [email protected] Organization: Research Center for Geotechnology, Indonesian Institute of Sciences
16 Name: Andi Irawan Country: Indonesia City: Tanjungpinang Email: [email protected]; [email protected] Organization: Environmental Agency of Riau Islands Province
17 Name: Helena Lawira Country: Indonesia City: Bandung Email: [email protected] Organization: Asian Development Bank, Indonesia Resident Mission
18 Name: Muhammad Thursina Cahya Country: Indonesia City: Bandung Email: [email protected] Organization: Development Planning Agency
Muhammad Thursina Cahya passed away 10 days after the training workshop. 19 Name: Mayang Meilantina Country: Indonesia City: Palangka Raya - Kalimantan Tengah Email: [email protected] Organization: University Palangka Raya
20 Name: Indra Firmansyah Country: Indonesia City: Bandung Email: [email protected] Organization: Pt. Mitra Lingkangun Dutaconsult/Pt. DHV Indonesia
21 Name: Win Hlaing Country: Myanmar City: Nay Pyi Taw Email: [email protected] Organization: Directorate of Water Resources and Improvement of River Systems
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22 Name: Dang Quang Thinh Country: Vietnam City: Ha Noi Email: [email protected] [email protected] Organization: Vietnam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment 23 Name: Le Van Khoa Country: Vietnam City: Can Tho Email: [email protected] Organization: Can Tho University
24 Name: Ly Quoc Dang Country: Vietnam City: Can Tho Email: [email protected] Organization: Mekong Delta Development Research Institute Cantho University
25 Name: Ky Quang Vinh Country: Vietnam City: Can Tho Email: [email protected] Organization: People Committee of Can Tho City
26 Name: Vu Thuy Linh Country: Vietnam City: Ho Chi Minh City Email: [email protected] Organization: Department of Natural Resources and Environment
27 Name: Bui Minh Tuan Country: Vietnam City: Ho Chi Minh City Email: [email protected] Organization: Southern Institute for Water Resources Research
28 Name: Ho Thi Thanh Hien Country: Vietnam City: Ho Chi Minh City Email: [email protected] Organization: Center for Environmental Technology and Management
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29 Name: Nguyen Hong Quan Country: Vietnam City: Ho Chi Minh City Email: [email protected] Organization: Institute for Environment and Resources
30 Name: Le Thuy Ngan Country: Vietnam City: Ho Chi Minh City Email: [email protected] Organization: University of Social Sciences and Humanities (USSH)
31 Name: Phung Anh Kiet Country: Vietnam City: Ho Chi Minh City Email: [email protected] Organization: Vietnam National University
32 Name: Nguyen Quang Truong Country: Vietnam City: Ho Chi Minh City Email: [email protected] Organization: HCM City University of Technology
33 Name: Tran Quang Khai Country: Vietnam City: Ho Chi Minh City Email: [email protected] Organization: Eastern International University (EIU)
34 Name: Le Thi Thu Ha Country: Vietnam City: Ho Chi Minh City Email: [email protected] Organization: Institute of Ecology
35 Name: Do Xuan Bien Country: Vietnam City: Ho Chi Minh City Email: [email protected] Organization: University of Social Sciences and Humanities (USSH)
36 Name: Pham Ngoc Country: Vietnam City: Ho Chi Minh City Email: [email protected] Organization: Institute of Water and Environment Research / Water Resources University
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37 Name: Nguyen Le Duy Country: Vietnam City: Ho Chi Minh City Email: [email protected] Organization: Southern Institute of Water Resources Research
38 Name: Ngo The An Country: Vietnam City: Ha Noi Email: [email protected] Organization: Hanoi University of Agriculture
39 Name: Bui Le Vinh Country: Vietnam City: Ha Noi Email: [email protected] Organization: Hanoi University of Agriculture
40 Name: Nguyen Phuong My Country: Vietnam City: Ha Noi Email: [email protected] Organization: Hanoi water resources university
41 Name: Hoang Phi Long Country: Vietnam City: Amsterdam Email: [email protected] Organization: Earth System Science And Climate Change Group, Wageningen University and Research Centre
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Annex 3. Introduction to the workshop and flow of the working sessions
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Welcome to the Workshop
‘Challenges and Approaches in River Delta Planning’
Martien Beek - First Secretary Water and Climate
Embassy of the Kingdom of the Netherlands
22 October 2012
Distinguished authorities,
Professor Le Quang Minh, vice president of the Vietnam National University,
Prof. Ho Long Phi, Director of the Centre of Water Management & Climate Change
Dr. Wim Douven, Associate Professor of Integrated River Basin Management UNESCO-IHE
Distinguished representatives from international institutes from Indonesia, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Vietnam and the Netherlands
Dear friends,
1. On behalf of the Dutch Government, it is a great pleasure and honour to welcome you to the International training workshop ‘Challenges and Approaches in River Delta Planning’, hosted by the Vietnam National University of Ho Chi Minh City and organized by UNESCO-IHE, Wageningen University , Deltares and VNU and in collaboration with Delta Alliance.
2. This training workshop is an excellent example how different countries can cooperate and share the latest insights on river delta planning. I am certain that this training workshop will be very effective due to the fact that all participants are the experts who are actually involved in the river delta planning in your respective countries.
3. Sharing experiences obtained from different Deltas like the Mekong Delta, Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta, Ciliwung Delta, Irrawady delta and the Rhine-Meuse Delta is of great importance. In all countries the river deltas are the common engines of the economy, providing in food security, employment, urban settlements, industries and nature.
4. There lies a tremendous challenge in addressing integrated planning to build Climate Proof deltas within the context of many variables of changing parameters, and uncertainties of what the future will bring.
5. This in a context in multiple-dimensions such as growth strategies with emphasis on urban, industry and agriculture, competition between water-users, preserving environment, and cross-boundary water management.
6. Land and water are valuable and scarce resources in the deltas. Although traditional agriculture and aquaculture are recognized to be of paramount importance for Vietnam and for the World, it cannot support a reasonable income for the delta’s population. Too many people depend on that. Poverty and un-employment is still a major challenge. Industrialization and specialization are necessary to provide for jobs and perspective for current and future generations.
7. The question is how and where. More land for industry and cities in the Delta could harm agriculture and threaten basic food security, reduce the land available for rice production. Fast development of the cities, like Ho Chi Minh City, might give relief as the new generation will move to there for opportunity. This is already happening. These multiple dimensions of decision making will be central in the training workshop.
8. The Netherlands has the ambition to play a central role in cooperating with other Delta countries on climate change adaptation strategies. The challenge in such strategies is not to overdo and run in high costs and not underdo causing safety risks. Also to maintain maximum flexibility and most natural solutions (like building with nature) to keep open as much as possible opportunities for the future. In such case, interventions are mostly known as no-regret measures. A healthy economic environment should be created that supports investment, infrastructure development, agricultural production and safe urban areas.
9. The Vietnamese and Dutch Government have agreed in 2010 to cooperate on designing a Vision for the Mekong Delta for the next 100 years to respond adequately to climate change. This is not a simple task and it requires intensive cooperation between the Vietnamese and Dutch experts to design such plan. It should be adaptive to future changes (economically, environmentally, socially, politically etc.) and it should also address issues crucial required investments at the right time.
10.As there is no fixed formula it is important to share experiences between the delta countries represented here today supporting North-South cooperation as well as South-South cooperation. An excellent example of such cooperation was actually last week when the Minister of Planning from Bangladesh and his delegation visited Vietnam to discuss with the Vietnamese and Dutch experts on development strategies for the Mekong delta.
11. I would like to take this opportunity also to call your attention to the important upcoming Deltas-2013 conference organized by the United States of America, Vietnam and the Netherlands. This conference follows up on the successful first conference that was held in New Orleans in 2010, where some of you might have participated also. The second World Delta Dialogues conference will be organized here in Vietnam between 20 and 24 of May next year. Your political leaders and experts are sincerely invited to make this conference a success and support with a Delta-covenant addressing commitment to make deltas prosperous, economically viable and safe living habitats. Please keep track on the website information regarding the invitation for presentations etc.
12.The Dutch Government would like to share our knowledge and skills internationally. We believe that by putting our heads together, we can achieve more in confronting global water-related challenges. For centuries, the Dutch have been involved in large international projects. International cooperation is second nature for a small trading nation. It is my view, the large water challenges we all face, can only be met if we work together.
13.To finalize my presentation I would like to present to you a short movie about the bilateral cooperation in the water and climate sector. It demonstrates the importance of the Deltas as well as the importance of close cooperation between knowledge institutes, private sector and government.
14. I hope you enjoy the 5 minute movie and get even more inspired for this week’s training workshop.
15. I would like to thank the organisers UNESCO-IHE, Wageningen University , Deltares and Vietnam National University for organising this event.
16.Thank you for your attention and I wish you a successful workshop!
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Delta challenges
Introduction to the training • Agriculture • Aquaculture workshop • Floods Wim Douven, Ho Long Phi, Chau Nggyuyen Xuan Quang, • Droughts Henk Wösten • Sedimentation • Salinity • Climate change • Transboundary Challenges and Approaches in River Delta Planning
22‐26 October 2012, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Delta challenges Why this training workshop?
But also: • Do we face similar, different challenges? • Food security • What are our experiences in addressing these challenges? • Poverty alleviation • What can we learn from each other? • Economic development • What can we learn from new concepts and • Urban‐rural interactions approaches? • Environmental protection • What are gaps in knowledge and experiences? • How could we address these gaps?
Trade‐offs to be made …
Scope of the workshop: Participants Strategic planning Experts from, related to, interested in: Context: • Ciliwung Delta Vision • Irrawady Delta ‐ Societal demand • Vietnam Mekong Delta • Ganges‐Brahmaputra Delta Implem. Issues ‐ Political will and incl. • Rhine‐Meuse Delta reflection Stake‐ scenarios • And other basins, deltas ‐ Economy holders
Most IHE and WUR alumni. ‐ Institutional capacity Planning (opera‐ Strategies ‐ Scientific tional) insights
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Workshop programme Field trip
Day 1. Introduction, issues and challenges Day 2. Delta planning approaches, incl. scenarios Day 3. Field visit Day 4. Delta themes ‐ Upstream delta ‐ Urban delta ‐ Coastal delta Day 5. Synergizing, conclusions, way forward Day trip to Mekong Delta City of My Tho and boat trip to Ben Tre
Workshop programme Delta themes Upstream delta (Example Vietnam Mekong delta)‐ Water for agriculture ‐ Flood protection (from Day 1. Introduction, issues and challenges river, land) ‐ Etc.. Day 2. Delta planning approaches, incl. scenarios Day 3. Field visit Day 4. Delta themes ‐ Upstream delta ‐ Urban delta Urban delta ‐ Coastal delta ‐ Water supply and Day 5. Synergizing, conclusions, way forward sanitation / water quality Coastal delta ‐ Flood protection (from river, sea) and drainage ‐ Water for aquaculture ‐Etc.. ‐ Flood protection (from river, sea) ‐ Coastal ecosystems ‐ Saltwater intrusion ‐ Etc.
Workshop programme Workshop approach
Day 1. Introduction, issues and challenges • Open, interactive, flexible Day 2. Delta planning approaches, incl. scenarios •Mix of methods Day 3. Field visit Day 4. Delta themes •Every morning a participant will recap the main issues’ ‐ Upstream delta discussed on the previous day ‐ Urban delta ‐ Coastal delta •Hardcopies of PPTs and handouts will be distributed Day 5. Synergizing, conclusions, way forward before sessions •How to capture output of sessions ..?
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Resource persons Logistics
All given your knowledge and experience in the subject Transport from central city to the VNU campus (or parts of it) and your region. Field trip Organising partners: Reimbursement expenses made • Vietnam National University (Ho Long Phi, Chau Any other issues Nguyen Xuan Quang) • Wageningen University (Henk Wosten and Fulco Ludwig) Contact: Dr. Quang and his staff • Deltares (Marcel Marchand) • UNESCO‐IHE (Wim Douven and Assela Pathirana)
Enjoy the training workshop
Questions?
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Delta presentations Flow work sessions Monday 22 October
Guiding questions delta presentations Delta presentations (given by email)
• Purpose: Familiarize with different delta’s represented • What are the key characteristics of your delta? – Issues, challenges and main measures • What are the 3 main issues in your delta? – Planning system and strengths / weaknesses • How are these issues addressed? What are the main measures? • Each delta is presented by a participant/ resource • How is the planning system addressing these issues person characterised? • What are the main strengths of your planning system? what are weaknesses?
Discussion
• What are differences? • What are similarities? • Why? Scenario construction
• Can we learn from each other? Tuesday 23 October
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Workshop constructing scenarios
1. Four scenarios 1. Axis 1 High –low economic growth Issues and solution strategies 2. Axis 2 Moderate –Fast Climate Change 2. Develop Story lines for each of the four scenarios upstream delta, urban delta and 3. Describe the most important water related issues for coastal delta each of the four scenarios
1 group GBM delta, Bangladesh Thursday 25 October 1 group Indonesian delta – select one delta 2 groups Mekonng delta
Delta themes Upstream delta (Example Vietnam Mekong delta)‐ Water for agriculture ‐ Flood protection (from river, land) ‐ Etc..
Urban delta ‐ Water supply and sanitation / water quality Coastal delta ‐ Flood protection (from river, sea) and drainage ‐ Water for aquaculture ‐Etc.. ‐ Flood protection (from river, sea) ‐ Coastal ecosystems ‐ Saltwater intrusion ‐ Etc.
Morning: Analyse 3 future Example delta water issues 1. Identify for each of the four climate and economic Drivers Pressure State Impact Response Water Economic Point and Water Human Wastewater development scenarios ‐ use input of Tuesday ‐ the quality growth non-point quality health treatment sources status in risks; loss three key water issues related to your theme. surface and of groundwater biodiversity 2. Describe these key issues in terms of Drivers, Subsidence Geotechnical Soil Current rate Roads and Stop GW Pressure, State and Impact. processes; compaction; of buildings extraction; groundwater lowering of subsidence destabilize; land filling; extraction surface (temporal increased flood and spatial flood risk control Make differences and scales)
similarities between deltas explicit.
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Afternoon: Identify and evaluate solution Criteria (presentation Fulco)
strategies to address future issues • Effectiveness: to what extent does the measure reduce vulnerability to climate change impacts (from not at all to very 1. Describe a clear long term aims/goals for your theme much) 2. Identify for each scenario at least two solution • Economic effects: what are the investment/ operational/transaction/social costs (as a function of GDP?, strategies related to ‘land and water use’. Describe the from very high to very low) strategies in terms of 1) concept behind strategy and 2) • Side-effect s: whi ch oth er pos itive or negati ve eff ect s oth er th an type of measures included. reduced vulnerability and economic impacts does the measure Either start with individual measures and combine them to have? (from primarily very negative to primarily very positive) strategies or start with strategic concepts. Try to combine • Flexibility: to what extent can the measure be solutions for all (3) issues in an integrated way. adjusted/complemented/reversed when resulting to be 3. Evaluate each solution strategy (next sheet) inadequate or inappropriate (from very rigid to very flexible) • Acceptance: how feasible is the implementation of the measure taking into account issues such as public acceptance? Presentation on flipcharts and / or Powerpoint (from not to very acceptable)
Plenary feed‐back Delta themes
• Each theme group presents results: – Key / Future issues Feedback Delta themes – Solution strategies – Assessment solution strategies Friday 26 October
Discussion
• Solution strategies – What are differences / similarities between themes? – What are differences / similarities between delta’s Discussion results – What method of strategy development works best? • Solution strategies at delta scale Friday 26 October – What are possible issues between strategies? – What are opportunities for cooperation (e.g. benefit sharing)? • Conditions for implementation – How to create cooperation? – What are the main bottlenecks in enabling conditions? • …
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Discussion possible future cooperation
• What can we learn from each other? • What can we learn from new concepts and Discussion Forum / Community of approaches? Practice for knowledge networking • What are ggpaps in knowledge and experiences? • What do you see as clear opportunities for cooperation? Friday 26 October • How could we organise this? Initiatives, networks
4 Annex 4. Training material
'Introduction, issues and challenges' (Day 1; Monday 22 October)
Challenges of the Mekong delta development and planning implications (Ho Long Phi) Enabling delta life. What makes managing land and water in deltas different? (Marcel Marchand) Presentation of deltas issues and challenges: Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta (Malik Fida Abdullah Khan) Presentation of deltas issues and challenges: Ciliwung and other Indonesia and deltas (Yuliana Susilowati) Presentation of deltas issues and challenges: Irrawady delta (Win Hlaing) Presentation of deltas issues and challenges: Rhine-Meuse Delta (Marcel Marchand)
'Delta planning approaches' (Day 2; Tuesday 23 October)
Delta planning approaches (Wim Douven) Scenario development: biophysical and socio-economic (Fulco Ludwig) Climate change adaptation (Fulco Ludwig) Mekong Delta Plan (Martijn vd. Groep, CTA Dutch advisory team)
'Delta themes: coastal delta, urban delta, upstream delta’ (Day 4; Thursday 24 October)
Sedimentation and mangrove ecosystems (Marcel Marchand) Salt water agriculture (Henk Wösten) Land use/urban dynamics (Assela Pathirana)
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Part 1: Facts about the MKD
Ho Long Phi The Center of Water Management and Climate Change Viet Nam National University HCMC
Training Workshop on Challenges and Approaches in River Delta Planning Sharing experiences from SE Asian Deltas and the Rhine‐Meuse Delta Ho Chi Minh City, 22-26 Oct 2012
Geography Demography
Natural increase rate (o/oo) Population density 2010 20.0 (person/skm) 18.0 Country 16.0 Central highland 14.0 95 Country South East 263 12.0 Central highland 10.0 Mekong delta 939 South East 8.0 Northern 6.0 617 Mekong delta Coastal 4.0 NthNorthern Red river delta 2.0 197 Coastal 0.0 426 Red river delta 2005 2007 2008 2009 Prel. 2010 117
The natural increase rate of the MKD has been reduced for recent years and is just about 80% of the country’s. Why?
The population density of the MKD is still as double as the national average. • MKB: 795,000 skm; 6 riparian countries, 60M people • MKD: 40,500 skm; 13 Provinces; 17.3 M people
Rice production Economical structure
Yield (T/ha) Production (1000T) Agricultural production Aqua products Export (1000T) Revenue (US$ M) (% of the country) (% of the country) 39% 70% 38% 68% 37% 66% 36% 64% 62% 35% 60% 34% 58% 33% 56% 32% 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Export Revenue Industrial production Retailed sales and services Yield Production (% of the country) (% of the country)
10.2% 20.5% 10.0% 9.8% 20.0% Both production and yield has increase 9.6% 19.5% Since 2000, the exported rice quantity has 9.4% 9.2% 19.0% 25% during the last 10 years. increase 80%, the price 150%, brought an 9.0% 8.8% 18.5% 8.6% increase of 4.3 times of revenue. 8.4% 18.0% 8.2% 17.5% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Source: processed by the Author from GSO data
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Agricultural sector Economical restructuring
Economic sector 2005 Economic sector 2010
4%
7%
CôngIndustry nghiệp CôngIndustry nghiệp 22% 32% NôngAgriculture nghiệp 20% Nông nghiệp 43% Agriculture ThAqủqyuaculture sản ThAquacultureủy sản FDIFDI FDIFDI
42% 30%
Source: Mekong Delta plan project
Source: processed by the Author from GSO data • The trend of diversification in agricultural structure of the MKD ?. • The role MKD as an agricultural –dominant economic system has been replaced. • The role of the MKD as “rice bowl” should be reconsidered? • Industrialization followed by Urbanization would be an irresistable trend of the MKD
Transport Labor
Road length/1000 people Trained labor Unemployed ratio (% of country average) (% of country average) (% of country average) 80.0% 59% 180% 70.0% 58% 160% 60.0% 57% 140% ThUnemployedất nghiệp 120% 50.0% 56% 100% ThiPartếu timeviệc làmjob 40.0% 55% 80% 54% 30.0% 60% 53% 20.0% 40% 52% 20% 10.0% 51% 0% 0.0% 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 GiaoLand thông bộ InterQu‐provincialốc lộ GiaoLand thông +th waterủy + bộ Source: processed by the Author from GSO data Source: processed by the Author from GSO data
• Road densities, both land‐ and water‐ is very low compared with the country average, especially the • Low profiled labor force and high unemployed ratio compare with the national‐ inter‐provincial road. wide average imply high risks fof the MKD development.
• The fact implies a bottle neck of the MKD.
Income and Expense Education
Lower education student Higher education student % of population % of population 25.0% 5.0% Personal income Living expense 4.5% 20.0% 4.0% (% of country average) (% of country average) 3.5% 15.0% 3.0% 2.5% 140% 120% 10.0% 2.0% 120% 100% 1.5% 100% 5.0% 1.0% 80% 0.5% 80% 60% 0.0% 0.0% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% 0% 1999 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 1999 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Source: processed by the Author from GSO data
Personal income and living expense has been decreased since decades. The Source: processed by the Author from GSO data favorable natural conditions could not made the delta prosperous.
Higher education student ratio is very low compared with the country average.
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Healthcare Migration
Bed for 1000 people Death ratio of new born child (% of country average) 88% (% of country average) 86% 90% 84% 80% 82% 70% 80% 60% 78% 50% 76% 40% 74% 30% 72% 20% 70% 10% 68% 0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010
Source: processed by the Author from GSO data
Source: processed by the Author from GSO data 2010 During the year 2004‐2009, there have been about 370.000 immigrants from the MKD to HCMC and other provinces, in which almost 200,000 found their new home in HCMC.
Migration Migration to HCM 2009 Remarks
Migrants to HCMC from MKD 82919 Ca Mau Bac Lieu 5% From CP 4% 197419 Soc Trang From SDB Although the MKD is still the rice bowl of the country, its Long An 75841 7% 11% From MKD economic development is still below the national’s Hau Giang 2% average and suffering a downtrend. Can Tho Tien Giang 5% Ho Chi 14% Minh Source: GSO 2010 Kien City Giang 5% Migration vs distance to HCMC Ben Tre Migration from MKD has been increasing since the last An Giang 13% MKD 2004‐2009 8% 40000 decade, most of them to HCMC. Dong Tra 30000 Thap Vinh Vinh 9% Long 9% 8% 20000 10000 What are the current bottlenecks of the delta and why? 0 0 100 200 300 400 Source: processed by the Author from GSO data 2010 During the year 2004‐2009, there have been about 370.000 migrants from the MKD to HCMC and other provinces, in which almost 200,000 found their new home in HCMC.
Soil map Part 2: Future of the delta
About 1.6 M ha of the MKD is covered by problematic soils, implying land use constrainsts and environmental concerns.
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Water resources Water-related problems of the Mekong basin
Salinity intrusion in dry season Flooded area in rainy season
The hydrological impacts may be the most important factors that determine the destiny of the MKD. As Viet Nam part contributes only 10% of the water resources, the MKD will be heavily impacted by future developments and climate change in the whole upstreamcatchment.
Sedimentation Fishery
Extensive development of reservoirs for hydropower and irrigation in MKB will create sediment traps. MKD Inland fishery, both fishing and farming still rely on problems: nutrient, land subsidence. natural fish fry and fingerling.
Dam cascades will dfihiildestruct fish migration cycle and, therefore, heavily damage the fishery of the lower MKB.
Source: Colin Thorne et al. Mar 2011. MRC report
Climate change issues Sea level rise
Precipitation change Temperature change
Wet season Dry season Year average
Climate changes in the catchment would imply more floods and also more droughts, which may create serious transboundary water issues. Sea level rise may trigger anthropogenic reactions, most of them are irreversible.
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Climate changes? Hydrological anomaly?
Max temperature Max water level
Mean temperature Mean water level
Source: Mekong Delta plan project: preliminary report Some climate‐, hyrological parameters in Can Tho city. Even the discharge and water level upstream was lower, the water level in Can Tho in 2011 was much higher than that of 2005. Why?
Remarks Part 3: Planning Requirements External factors will reshape the fate of the MKD.
Water-related problems will be the most important limits of the MKD development in future .
The sustainable development of the MKD has to base on self-adaptation capacity.
Possible responses Planning Implications The MKD would be very vulnerable as its destiny might be determined from outside (Upstream development, sea level rise) Protection? None of the external impacts can be neither predicted nor controlled.
Migration? The Migration from MKD may trigger serious socio-economical problems for HCMC and Sai Gon Dong Nai basin.
High Uncertainties, both in internal and external causes, have to be considered in Adaptation? the MKD planning.
The Pareto-optimal would not be usually reachable.
•Is it a Win‐Win or Zero‐sum games? •How can we make it a Win‐Win?
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Development mechanism SWOT analysis
Health care Strength Weakness Market Cul‐ Market ture Agriculture Water Logistic Service Resources Aquaculture Logistic Production
Envi‐ Production roment Oppotunity Techno Labor Agriculture ‐logy Threat Life Sea quality Gover‐ nance Enviro Food Human nment • Service Bottleneck(s) in a system may slowdown the acceleration of the whole. Industry resource • SWOT analysis may help indicating the weakness of the system for a better structure Income and planning priority.
Conflicts Challenges of MKD planning Upstream-Downstream Sedimentation Fish migration Water regulation • How to remove the current • Short term planning … bottlenecks? objective. Land uses Rice-Aquaculture Shrimp-Mangrove … • How to make Win‐Win • Water demand sectors Medium‐term Urban-Rural solutions from a Zero‐sum planning objective. Agriculture-Industry game? Hydropower-Flood retention …
• The resolution strategy could be either Win‐Win (cooperation) or Zero‐ • How to create a resilient sum (Non‐cooperation). • Long‐term planning • Cooperation strategy based on Optimization may be far from reality. MKD to cope with external objective. • Game theory ??? Uncertainties?
Challenges
Conclusions Current bottlenecks of Education, Logistic, Transport… should be removed.
The destiny of the MKD would be risky by uncertain external factors related to water.
The MKD plan, however, has to be an Integrated one.
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Conflict resolution Self-Resilience
The external impacts would be hardy resolved. Water management in the MKB and also within the delta has been still a Zero-sum game, in which upstream players set the rule of the game. Adaptation capacity will reshape the future of MKD.
Conflict resolution (transboundary- and delta-wide) will be the most challenging objective of the planning. Human resources of the MKD will be the most important factor that determines its resilience capacity.
Prevention
Adaptation Retreat
Thank you!
7 11/18/2012
Ten reasons why deltas are different
1. High population density 2. Rapid urbanization 3. High economic and agricultural activities 4. High-value ecosystem Enabling Delta Life 5. Dynamic geomorphological What makes managing land and water in processes deltas different? 6. Sediment starvation, soft soils and subsidence 22 October 2012 Workshop Challenges and Approaches in River Delta Planning 7. Fossil fuel and groundwater exploitation Marcel Marchand 8. Water pollution 9. Flood hazards 10. Seawater intrusion
Spatial layer model Base Layer
Network Layer Occupation layer
Veere (Z eela n d ca. 17 00)
Rotterdam (2010)
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Layer model DPSIR + Spatial layers approach
Occupation layer
Network layer
Base layer
Framework for assessment ‘Drivers of change’
population economic growth development
technological climate development change
Trends in society Advantages of using the framework
• Structures description of delta problems • Enables comparison of deltas decentralization • Creates understanding of socioeconomic delta development privatization • Identifies key factors for change and for decision making • Provides visions for integrated management participation environmental concerns risk aversion
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Comparative assessment of the vulnerability and Deltas studied resilience of 10 deltas
Provide a first step towards a comprehensive overview of the current and future state of deltas Rhine-Meuse Danube Integrate scientific, social and Ganges- management knowledge Brahmaputra- Meghna Ca liforn ia Mississippi Yangtz e Nile Provide framework for future data Bay-Delta collection Mekong
Ciliwung
Incomati
Scorecard and related indicators Delta score cards - overview
resilience/sustainability: ++ (very good), + (good), 0 (medium), - (low), -- (very low)
Towards indicators of change Delta score cards - Conclusions
For most of the deltas current resilience and sustainability is not satisfactory
Reasons differ per delta but some general mechanisms: • An imbalance between demands and supply with regard to land and water use; • An inadequate or ageing infrastructure in the delta; • Disruption of the natural delta processes; • Inadequate governance to address problems and implement solutions.
For a number of deltas the challenge is defining a comprehensive (multi-sectoral) delta plan
The combined DPSIR-layer approach has proven to be useful
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Flood risk management as example Integrated flood risk management
flood control = using only the network layer Integrated flood risk management = using all layers Drivers of change: Delta Layers: Flood Risk Management:
Occupation Population growth, Land and water use Flood vulnerability OccupationOccupation Economic development LandLand and and water water use use
Flood exposure Flood Risk
Infrastructure Participatory planning
Technology, Flood protection es Flood adaptation Multifunctional use Zoning / setback Warning and evacuation r innovations Infrastructure Flood hazard INTEGRATED FLOOD RISK MGMTRISK MANAGEMENT
Physical base Climate change, Air, water and soil Wave energy dissipation Barriers to floodingEcosystem Coastal services stabilisation Improve infiltration Water retention subsidence Structural measu
Flood risk = Hazard x Vulnerability PhysicalPhysical base base Air,Air, water water and and soil soil Protection Changes in flood risk = (climate change, subsidence, pop.growth, econ. development)
Allocate water storage in all functions Framework as aid to strategy building
Function leads, water follows:
Occupation Land and water use
Storage for first 4 hours of rain (25%) Infrastructure
Storage in canals towards central basins (25%)
Physical base Air, water and soil One or two central storage bassins (50% of total)
Framework as aid to strategy building Main challenges
Water leads, function follows: • Can we influence land and water use? Do we have the institutional Occupation requirements for this? Land and water use • Do we have the funds to improve infrastructure? • How can we minimize the negative impacts of infrastructure on the environment? • Do we have sufficient knowledge on integrated concepts (such as Infrastructure building with nature, risk assessments, vulnerabilities)? • How can we improve participatory planning? • How can institutional barriers be lifted? • How can we deal with uncertainties? Physical base Air, water and soil • …etc. Enough for a week’s thought!
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Downstream of GBM Basins
Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services
Ganges – Brahmaputra – Meghna Delta, Bangg,ladesh, Delta Plan 2100 Participants from Bangladesh Malik Fida A. Khan M. Aminur Rahman Shah Md. Alauddin Hossain Naeema Jihan Zinia Md. Nasif Ahsan Syeda Sajeda Haider Md. Reaz Uddin Khan 2
Delta Plan 2100: Bangladesh Delta Vision, Strategy &Plan
Manas About 80% of • Vision: Developing the Bangladesh delta to Sorawar the country is featured with achieve long term sustainable development rivers and through adaptive water governance, based Nepal Bhutan their floodplains on: which support India life, – long‐term analysis as well as integration of livelihoods relevant policy sectors and and economy of the whole – creation of adequate institutional arrangement Bangladesh : A Land of Bangladesh and capacity Challenges & Opportunities for delta Land & Water Resources Management
3
Delta Plan 2100 Major Characteristics of Bangladesh Delta
• Develop a long term (50‐100years) analysis of development About 80% of the country is featured with rivers and their floodplains & scenario building of problems and issues related to natural resources During the monsoon enormous amounts of water need to be drained towards the ocean while • Develop long‐term vision on future natural resources • Form a roadmap for processes of policy development, During the dry season often there is not enough fresh water available decision making and integrated implementation Livelihood of the people, support to ecology and the country’s economy is directly • Align institutional development, capacity building and dependant to the delta development and realization of projects with the over all Rivers are morphologically dynamic and Erosion accretion in rivers are continuous strategy of delta plan process • Utilize limited fund in more effectively through multiple objectives oriented development projects Accretion is governing in the coast whilst erosion is governing at river banks
6
1 11/20/2012
Growing Population and Development Needs Future Challenges
• Ensure food security • Improve safety & living conditions • Becoming middle income country by 2021 • Climate related disasters may result in: – large economic losses – reduced economic growth – little progress in poverty reduction
7
Main Issues Climate Change Issue
Integrated Land Use The development of Bangladesh can be slowed Urban Water Management down due to River Management climate related disasters
Disaster Preparedness and Management resulilting in 9large economic losses, Innovative Water Infrastructure and Management 9reduced economic growth and Climate Change Impact and Adaptation 9 little progress in poverty reduction Governance and Strengthening of Institutions and Stakeholders at all Levels
9 10
Other Issues Why Delta Plan
Climate change: Need of a longer term strategic vision
Increasing demand of water Land reclamation For shrinking available land and growing population
UlUnplanne d constttiruction of water stttructure to Trans‐boundary river problems meet water demands Government is overloaded and fragmented; coordination and decentralization needed Uncontrolled pollution of water Food security
11 12
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Delta Plan: Focus Delta Plan: Objectives
A long term (50‐100 years) analysis of developments and scenario building of problems and issues related to • A long term vision on the future governance of natural resources with especial emphasis on natural resources in Bangladesh delta • A roadmap for processes of policy development, Water Water Safety decision making and integrated implementation Land Food Security • An alignment of institutional development, capacity building and the development and Agriculture Socio‐economy realization of projects Public Health Ecological Matters • Utilization of limited fund more effectively Environment through multiple objective oriented development projects
13 14
Benefits and Opportunities: Delta Plan Benefits and Opportunities: Delta Plan (Contd.)
Conservation of natural resources in a comprehensive manner, especially An umbrella that integrates all sector plans and policies with long term the river floodplains and coastal ecosystems perspectives Enhance the capacity of good governance through its focus on institutional arrangements, strengthening and capacity building, equity and justice Bring change in the individual sector approach of project planning and among all sectors implementation to multi‐lateral coordinated approach Opportunity of coordination and funding process among different The plan can be linked to short terms plans such as five year plans, vision government and non‐government stakeholders 2021, and other planning processes (NWMP, ICZMP, Agricultural Master Plan for Southern Delta, Master Plan of Haor Area, etc) Opportunity to harmonize regional development plans for agriculture, environmental affairs, urbanizations, tourism, etc. With the national plans The plan will enable the government policies and institutions for formulating and implementing climate change adaptation programmes in a Means of strengthening international cooperation with neighbouring more consistent way countries as well as development partners
15 16
Drivers for delta plan Vulnerability due to Natural Disasters
Population Growth
Natural Resources
Land Management and Administration
Economic Development
Social and Political Development
Water Resources Management
Technological Development
Climate Change: A cross‐cutting issue
17 18
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Selected Hotspots River Bank Erosion
• Coastal zone • Meghna estuary • Sundarbans • Floodplain • Major Riverbanks • Haor region • Charlands • Barind region • Hilly region Annual Rate of River Bank Erosion: 6,000 ha • Dhaka and other urban areas Annual Displacement: 50,000 person
19
Flood Prone Area
Severe: Occurs 5 times or more in 10 Ranking of multi‐hazard maps used for years preparing the risk‐index : Moderate: Occurs 3 ‐4 times or more in Cyclone ( high risk‐5, risk‐3,wind risk‐ 1) 10 years Slight : Occurs at least twice in 10 years Flood (Severely flooded due to major Not Affected : None in 10 years river floods –3, flash flood due to major river‐2, other flood‐1) Riverbank erosion(severe erosion‐2, erosion ‐1) Drought (very severe drought prone areas –2, severe drought‐1)
22
Bangladesh Assessment of water resources within the country Understanding River Dynamics Jamuna
River length: 25,000 km
Landsat TM Mosaic 1997 of River Area: 11,805 sq.km Bangladesh
4 11/20/2012
Coastal Morphology
Coastal Morphology Coastal Zone Management Land Formation in Changes of Meghna Estuary Physical 19731973
features 19841984 1973 19901990 1984 19961996 1990 20032003 1996 20052005 1997 2003 2005
Coastal Erosion and Accretion Meghna Land Reclamation in the Meghna Estuary Estuary, 1973‐2000
Legend:
Bankline of 2000 N Zone Area Accreted 1974-2000 Land is continuously Area Eroded 1974-2000 evolving through erosion and accretion process in the Meghna Estuary. Sandwip
Lower Meghna- Erosion-accretion of Tentulia Zone land occurs in the Bhola Bhola-Hatia Zone Hatia scale of hundred Hatia-Sandwip Zone km2/year, out of which net accretion is about 20 km2/year.
29
5 11/20/2012
Proposed Interventions for Land Reclamation Land Accretion from 1943 to 2008
Land to be reclaimed: 116 sq mile Reclaimed land More opportuniti es for land
Sl. No. Name of Cross Dams Phase - 1 1 Hatiya - Nijhum Dwip Cross Dam reclamatio 5 Char Rustam - Char Haldor Cross Dam 6 Char Haldor - Char Burhan Cross Dam 7 Char Burhan - Char Burhan Cross Dam 8 Char Kukri Mukri - Char Aicha Cross Dam 9 Char Montaz - Char Tapashi Cross Dam n exist 10 Char Montaz - Andarchar Cross Dam 17 Char Kajal (Shibar Char) - North Char Cross Dam 18 North Char (Char Nilkamal) - Kasher Char Cross Dam 19 Rangabali - Char Kashem Cross Dam
32
Transboundary River Management
Transboundary River Catchment
11 rivers
2 river
9 rivers
Total 21 rivers
6 11/20/2012
9,812 sq km 14% 1998 – 14,389 sqkm 2000 – 10,303 sqkm 2001 – 9,229 sqkm 2002 – 10,734 sqkm 23,137 sq km 2003 – 10,928 sqkm 36% 26,165 sq km 39% 2004 – 12,057 sqkm 2005 – 8,500 sqkm 2006 – 9,000 sqkm 2007 – 12,027 sqkm 7,434 sq km 2008 – 9,300 sqkm 11% 2009 – 8,400 sqkm 2010 – 10,600 sqkm Open water flood Extent 66,548 sq km 100%
Jan ‐‐ 3,100 sqkm Feb ‐‐ 1,900 sqkm Mar ‐‐ 1,200 sqkm Apr ‐‐ 2,400 sqkm May ‐‐ 7,900 sqkm Jun ‐‐ 8,700 sqkm Jul ‐‐ 8,100 sqkm Climate Change Aug ‐‐ 8,600 sqkm Sep ‐‐ 7,100 sqkm Oct ‐‐ 4,900 sqkm Nov ‐‐ 3,100 sqkm Dec ‐‐ 2,600 sqkm Open water flood extent
Cyclone
Some major cyclones hitting Bangladesh coasts in years 1876 1941 1948 1958 1960 1961 1963 1966 1970 1977 1983 1985 1986 1991 1997 1998 2007 2009
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FloodFlood Inundation Inundation Depth Depth Map: Map: Projection Projection Year Year 20152030 2050 FloodFlood Inundation Inundation Depth Depth Map: Map Existing Projection Condition Year 2100 Sea level rise induced Coastal Flooding SeaSeaSea Level Level Level Rise Rise 1014 88 32 cm cmcm
No Sea Level Upstream flow: flow: UpstreamRise flow: Average Year Year (Year AverageUpstream Year (Year2000 flow 2000) (Yearflow: Average 2000 flow) flow)Year (Year 2000 flow)
Land Level (m Land Level (m(m) PWD) PWD) PWD) 7.00-19.00 7.00-19.004.00- 7.00 4.00-2.00- 7.00 4.00 2.00-0.00- 4.00 2.00 0.00- 2.00 InundationInundationInundation DepthDepthDepth (m)(m)(m) 0.00-0.00- 0.15 0.15 0.00-0.15- 0.15 0.30 0.15-0.15- 0.30 0.30 0.30-0.30- 0.60 0.60 0.60-0.60- 0.90 0.90 0.90-0.90- 1.80 1.80 1.80-1.80- 3.60 3.60 AboveAbove 3.603.60 44
Way of working with Long Term Vision Timeline
45 46
Thank you
47
8 INDONESIA Yuliana Susilowati INDONESIA Juniferanne Natalina Brahmana Andi Irawan Helena Lawira Muhammad Thursina Cahya Mohamad Ramdani Mayang Meilantina Indra Firmansyah
INTEGRATED WATER QUALITY MODELING FOR SPATIAL PLANING CASE STUDY: JAKARTA COASTAL WATERSHED MAHAKAM WATERSHED
3
POPULATION & AREA
Country Population Area (in sq mi) Germany 81,471,834 137,846 Indonesia 245,613,043 741,096 Iran 77,,,891,220 636, 293 Jordan 6,508,271 35,637 Kazakhstan 15,522,373 1,049,150 Mongolia 3,133,318 603,905 Vietnam 90,549,390 127,243
1 OBJECTIVE BACKGROUND The aim of this study is to develop a new method of an integrated water quality modeling as a tool for the The watershed management approach has been integrated land-ocean spatial planning. Using the widely recognized as a tool for integrated regional model, several scenarios of spatial planning can be management, linking ecological and socio-economic analyzed in order to reduce environmental risk. concerns. River System as an Natural Reactor Water quality is one of the best benchmarks used to (self purification of Biodegradable material). gauge the changes in relative environmental across Water Quality Parameters: the several scenar ios. (DO, BOD, N, P, TSS, TDS) Integrated water quality modeling, comprised of the methods to estimate the total pollutant load which is Integrated water quality modeling is comprised of: generated by watershed, the fate and transport of the methods to estimate the total pollutant load which is pollutant in river flow and the function of coastal water generated by watershed, system as a “sink” for the continents; is a significant the fate and transport of pollutant in river flow, tool for integrated land-ocean management. the function of coastal water system as a “sink” for the continents; that receives and concentrate all kind of Using the model, several scenarios of spatial planning pollutans. can be analyzed in order to reduce environmental risk. 8 9
LAND AND OCEAN INTERACTION MATHEMATICAL MODEL DRAINAGE PATTERN AND BASIN KINETIC REACTION IN WATER SYSTEM
The flow of water is serving as
indicator of the relief and landscape dA Alga: A A 1 A characteristics and as an integrator dt h of many of the processes occurring dN N Organik: 4 A N N within the watershed. DRAINAGE BASIN dt 1 3 4 4 4 dN Ammonia: 1 N N / h F A Water quality was chosen as one of dt 3 3 1 1 3 1 1 btbhbest benchmark s used tthto gauge the RIVER SYSTEM dN Nitrit: 2 N N changes in relative environmental dt 1 1 2 2 dN across the several scenarios. Nitrat: 3 N (1 F ) A dt 2 2 1 1 dP1 P Organik: 2 A 4P1 5P1 The coastal resource system is dt interdependent and interrelated and dP2 Phosphat: 4P1 2 / h 2A has direct and indirect connections dt CBOD: dL with inland resource systems. K1L K3L dt
Pengaruh (T 20) KT K20 All of land areas can have an impact COASTAL WATER SYSTEM Temperatur: on marine resources. 10 11
12
2 MODEL IMPEMENTATION OF CI LIWUNG WATERSHED
13
RESEARCH AREA - LANDSAT TM RESEARCH AREA RESEARCH AREA - LANDSAT TM JAKARTA COASTAL WATERSHED JAKARTA COASTAL WATERSHED JAKARTA COASTAL WATERSHED
Jakarta Bay is ideal for such a study, incorporating one of the world’s largest coastal cities. In 2005, the population of Jakarta was in excess of thirteen million. Jakarta has no municipal sewage treatment system and both domestic and industrial wastes are systematically discharged into the bay. In Jakarta Bay offshore lies an elongate coral island sequence exposed to conditions ranging from intensely perturbed to relatively pristine. Jakarta functions as a service city and industrial area, the economy was dominated by manufacturing, trade and finance. Jakarta coastal watershed is comprised of several fluvial systems Sungai Cisadane, S. Angke, S. Sunter, S. Ciliwung, S. Bekasi, and S. Cikarang with combined catchment area of 4,610 km2. 16 17 18
3 WATER QUALITY DATA MEASUREMENT RESEARCH AREA IN THE RIVER SYSTEM MODEL IMPLEMENTATION CILIWUNG WATERSHED
Ancol CI LIWUNG WATERSHED Batas Wilayah Penelitian DAS Ci DAS Pesisir Teluk Jakarta Liwung
Skenario I: Downstream Downstream System: a) PS = 0 b) NPS = 0 c) PS+ NPS = 0
Skenario II : Upstream System: a) PS = 0 b) NPS = 0 c) PS+ NPS = 0 Upstream Puncak
19 20 21
CILIWUNG DOWN STREAM CILIWUNG UP STREAM
22 23
24
4 WATER QUALITY MEASUREMENT CI LIWUNG MAIN RIVER DIAGRAM OF CILIWUNG RIVER SYSTEM MODEL RESULT Kualitas Air Aliran Utama Sungai Ciliwung Kualitas Air Aliran Utama Sungai Ciliw ung 300
450 50
400 250 45 + + + + + + 40 350 + + + + + + 200 35 300 30 Temperatur ++ + ++ + ++ + + + + + + + Temperatur + + + 250 150 25 DO TDS + + + BOD + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + TSS 20 200 100 15 Konsentrasi (mg/l) Konsentrasi (mg/l) 150 10
100 50 5
0 50 0 124 122 117 107 103 92 63 54 38 27 16 0 0 124 122 117 107 103 92 63 54 38 27 16 0 Jarak Dari Muara Jarak Dari Muara
Puncak Bogor Depok Ancol
Kualitas Air Aliran Utama Sungai Ciliwung Kualitas Air Aliran Utam a Sungai Ciliw ung
40 3
35 2,5
30 NH4-N 2 25 NO3-N NO3-N NO2-N NO2-N 20 1,5 Ph os pa t- P Phospat-P Temperatur 15 1 Konsentrasi (mg/l) Konsentrasi (mg/l)
10 0,5 5
0 0 123456789101112 124 122 117 107 103 92 63 54 38 27 16 0 Jarak Dari Muara 25 Jarak Dari Muara 26 27
MODEL VALIDATION UPSTREAM SCENARIO DOWNSTREAM SCENARIO
EXISTING CONDITION Skenario PS EXISTING CONDITION Skenario PS Upstream = 0 Downstream = 0
Nilai SSE: 712.98013 Nilai SSE: 153.35627
Skenario NPS Skenario PS+NPS Skenario NPS Skenario PS+NPS Upstream = 0 Upstream = 0 Downstream = 0 Downstream = 0
Nilai SSE: 154.95206 Nilai SSE: 223.67478
28 29 30
5 O U T L I N E CITARUM RIVER CHARACTERISTICS CONCLUSION OF CILIWUNG RIVER BASIN The biggest and the longest river in West Java Province (Length: 269 Km ) • Key characteristics of Citarum River Catchment Area: 6.614 Km2 Ciliwung River has been poluted - The Total population in the basin: polutant load of domestic waste of Ciliwung • Three main issues in Citarum River 15,303,758 (50% Urban) Total Population in West Java River Basin is over than the self purification 41,483,729 (West Java Statistic) • Addressing the issues –the role of Irrigation for about 420,000 ha ricefield in West Java capacity of Ciliwung River It supports 20% of the country’s industrial output Supplies water for 80% for the capital city of Jakarta Land use planing and domestic waste water planning system (16 m3/s) treatment are the solution to reduce the Citarum covers : 9 districts • Strength and weakness of the (1)Kab. Bandung,(2)Kab.Bandung Barat, (3)Kab.Cianjur polutant load in this area in term of the (4)Kab.Purwakarta, (5)Kab.Karawang, (6) Kab.Bekasi, (7)Kab.Subang , (8)Kab.Indramayu, and sustainable use of the resources. planning system (9) Kab.Sumedang and 3 cities: (1)Kota Bekasi, (2)Kota Bandung, and (3)Kota Cimahi Average rainfall:2,300 mm/year
Average flow: 5.7 bilion/m3/year 31 Photo Doc: Cita-Citarum
KEY CHARACTERISTICS COMMUNITY SANITATION ALONG THE RIVER MUARA GEMBONG BEKASI High population resulted in increasing demand for water supply –improper river right of way management resulted in slum area in the river embankment Main supply of irrigation for the rice central production in West Java province JATILUHUR Degraded upstream catchment DAM area and changes in land use (watershed management) causing DAMS CAPACITIES AND sedimentation and also flood
CIRATA DAM POWER GENERATION Pollution from the industrial and domestic waste - Jatiluhur 1963: 3,000 million m3 – 187.5 MW - Saguling 1986: 982 OUTLET million m3 - 700 MW CITARUM UPPER CITARUM UPSTREAM (SAGULING DAM) RIVER BASIN - Cirata 1988: 2,165 million m3 - 1,000 MW 34 Photo by: Adhi Wicaksono, Veronica Wijaya/Doc Cita‐Citarum
6 COMMUNITY SANITATION ALONG THE RIVER CHALLENGECHALLENGES/ & OPPORTUNITIES ISSUES & OPPORTUNITIES (?) •Coordination among sectors “Traditional” Problem Analysis or the line ministries •Unclear role sharing between the central and local governments (high decentralisation system) • Lack of synergized planning, including the investment/ funding planning
•Integrated approach •Multi‐stakeholders planning •Community participation and empowerment
Photo Doc: Cita-Citarum
Developing Strategical Framework for a Roadmap by the The Reality What is a “Roadmap”? National Planning Agency • A “roadmap” is just like a strategic plan • It involves asking the following questions: Where do we want to go? Where are we now? How do we get from here to there?
7 Institutional arrangement for River CITARUM ROADMAP FINANCING Weakness of the country’s planning system Basin Planning PLAN • Lack of synergized sectoral planning between Estimated cost to • Overlap regulation/ legal framework between ministries the central and local government financing • There is one national water resources council, and Intervention Activities CITARUM ROADMAP (decentralisation) Citarum Roadmap provincial river basin council, and a river basin council USD 3.5 Billion for Citarum • Lack of synergized spatial planning system 35 intervention activities will be funded by ADB through • Min is try of PbliPublic WkWorks dldevelop the stttrategi c and • LkLack of synergidized bdbudge t plilanning system multifinancing facilities (4 management river basin planning for each river basin tranches) P3 P2 • Lack of monitoring and evaluation of the project Other funding resources; INVESTMENT PROGRAM • Several coordinating bodies under different ministries, implementation Government (national (ICWRMIP) which has involved the public/ civil societies and local), Private P4, P5,...,... P1 PROJECT‐1 • Ministry of Forestry River develops their river basin sectors, other donors (JICA, WB, IDB, UNDP,…) planning etc. Current funding by ADB through Grants and • Ministry of Environment and Agriculture not yet active 43 Doc Cita‐Citarum Loan
Strength of the country’s planning system MAHAKAM DELTA • High public/ civil society/ community participation • High commitment from the central government‐ but not yet followed by the local MODEL IMPEMENTATION OF governments MAHAKAM WATERSHED • Adequate resources The Mahakam Delta, located on the east coast of Kalimantan, Indonesia, is an active delta system which
available Doc Cita‐Citarum has formed in humid tropical environment under condition of relatively high tides, low wave-energy, (water resources, and large fluvial input. Tidal processes control the human resources, sediment distribution patterns in the deltamouth and are responsible for the flaring estuarine-type inlets
local wisdom) 47 and numerous tidal flats. 48
8 The Diversity of MahakamRain Forest,Indonesia The Diversity of Kalimantan Rain Forest,Indonesia MAHAKAM DELTA
is a configuration of 46 small islands forming a unique fanshaped lobate which stretches out into the coastal area of the Makassar Strait of East Kalimantan was formed through long term deposition of suspended solids from the 770 km long Mahakam River. High in biodiversity, and abundant in oil and gas resources. The vegetation is predominantly mangrove forests that consists of pedada zone, Rizophora zone, transition zone, Nipa zone and nibung zone. Prior to 1980, mangrove vegetation was pristine and about 60% of the area was covered by Nipa. Considerable changes in the extent of occurred between 1990-2002, with peak degradation between 1996-2000. Until 2001, about 63% mangrove areas was deforested mainly due to conversion for shrimp ponds. Loss of more than half the mangrove forests caused environmental impacts and affected aquatic productivity, social and economic condition and the livelihoods of communities living in Mahakam delta. Conflicts among various resource users were a frequent occurrence in the local communities, particularly related to land ownership and water pollution issues. 49
The Diversity of Kalimantan Rain Forest,Indonesia The Potential Use of Mahakam River The Diversity of Kalimantan Culture,Indonesia For water transportation, electric power .. Etc.
53 54
9 The Potential Use of Mahakam River The Potential Use of Mahakam River For water transportation, electric power .. Etc. For Fishery, agro industry.. Etc.
PRESURE & STATE OF MAHAKAM WATERSHED
55 56 57
Forest Degradation of Mahakam,Indonesia
59 60
10 ANALYSIS & MODELING OF MAHAKAM WATERSHED
61 62 63
WATER QUALITY MEASUREMENT OF MAHAKAM RIVER
s. Pahu s. Muntai s. Wis D. Semayang S. Balain s.Siaran s.Kaman
9 8 7 5 4 3 2 1X2 1
Tenggaromg
11 EKSISTING SKENARIO EKSISTING SKENARIO
Temperatur Temperatur
Total P DO Total P DO
P Organik P Organik
P Terlarut P Terlarut BOD BOD
1996 Total N Total N TSS N Organik N Organik TSS
NH3 NH3 NO3 NO3 TDS NO2 TDS NO2
SKENARIO : In the Heavy Rainfall, the flow is 2X of the normal flow SKENARIO : In the Heavy Rainfall, the flow is 2X of the normal flow . . 2000 2003
CHALENGE & SOLUTION Unesco World Heritage - Cultural Landscape of Bali CONCLUSION OF MAHAKAM RIVER BASIN Province: the Subak System as a Manifestation of the Tri OF THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Hita Karana Philosophy (http://whc.unesco.org/en/list/1194)
Mahakam River has been poluted - The polutant load of mining activity, plantation, forestry and deforestation of Mahakam River Basin is over than the self purification capacity Integrated Management of Mahakam River &H& Ho litilistic A pproac h Land use planing and waste water treatment are the solution to minimize the polutan load of the area in term of the sustainable use of the Multi Source – Multi Use – Multi Stakeholder resources.
70 71 72
12 Cultural Landscape of Bali Province: the Subak COMMUNITY PARTICIPATION System as a Manifestation of the Tri Hita Karana Philosophy (http://whc.unesco.org/en/list/1194) The cultural landscape of Bali consists of five rice terraces and their water temples that cover 19,500 ha. The temples are the focus of a cooperative water management system of canals and weirs, known as subak, that dates back to the 9th century. Included in the landscape is the 18th-century Royal Water Temple of Pura Taman Ayun, the largest and most impressive architectural edifice of its type on the island. The subak reflects the philosophical concept of Tri Hita Karana, which brings together the realms of the spirit, the human world and nature. This philosophy was born of the cultural exchange between Bali and India over the past 2,000 years and has shaped the landscape of Bali. The subak system of democratic and egalitarian farming practices has enabled the Balinese to become the most prolific rice growers in the archipelago despite the challenge of supporting a dense population.
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Low Head Micro Hydro 20 kW Electric Power Plant for Society
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13 Low Head Micro Hydro 20 kW Electric Power Plant for Society
79 80 81
FACT FOUNDING & PROPOSAL Ciliwung River has been poluted - The polutant load of domestic waste of Ciliwung River Basin is over than the self purification capacity of Ciliwung River – Land use planing & domestic waste water treatment is the solution to minimize the polutan load of the area. THANK YOU Mahakam River has been poluted - The polutant load of mining activity, plantation, forestry and deforestation of Mahakam River Basin is over than the self purification capacity of Mahakam River – Land use planing and waste water treatment are the solution to minimize the polutan
load of the area. 82 83
14 * Sustainable Development of AyeyarwadyDelta *INTRODUCTION LOCATION & AREA
- Situated in Southeast Asia,
-Bet. Lat. 09˚32’ N and Lon. 92˚10’ E – 101˚ 11’E
- Mainland Area 676,577 sq-km
- Seven states & Seven Regions
- International Boundaries;
Win Hlaing Bangladesh, India, China, Laos, Thailand. Deputy Director Directorate of Water Resources and Improvement of River Systems Ministry of Transport The Republic of the Union of Myanmar
*
Ayeyarwady Delta Total navigable waterways - about 2400 kilometer
Ayeyarwady river empties itself into the Andaman sea through nine large distributaries:from west to east: Pathein,
Thetkethaung,
Ywe,
PlPyamalaw,
Ayeyarwady,
Bogale,
Pyapon,
Toe and
Yangon rivers
1 Ayeyarwady Delta, Rice Granary of Myanmar Ayeyarwady Delta
Covers an area of about 35,000 square kilometer, including 26 townships.
The population is estimated at about 6.8 million , maximum population among States and Divisions of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar.
Population density 194 person/sq km.
Ayeyarwady Delta which is one of the rice granaries of Myanmar * (26 % of total Paddy field acreage of the nation) *Fishery business (Inland & Coastal) Major crops other than paddy are -Pluse * Fish - Groundnut * Prawn -Jute * Fish-paste, Fish-sauce - Vegetable * Dry-fish New Crops * Dry Prawn -Coffee - Thitseint *Animal husbandry and its products ( substantial amount) - Rubber - Pepper *Charcoal , Salt , Coconut product Cropping area 4 million acres.
Transportation Network * The Waterways Transport (most applicable mode) * Road Transport Bo Myat Tun Bridge, Longest cross river - Union Highway ( Pathein-Monywa, Yangon-Monywa) bridge in Ayeyarwady Delta - Main Road - Feeder Road - Village Road * 2400 km navigable waterway * 24 station pontoons to embank * Pathein out port * cross river bridge 57 (over 180 ft) 16 (over 1000 ft) Pathein Cable Bridge Ngawon River *Air Transport - Pathein Airport
2 * *
MANGROVE Coastal length is estimated about 2832 km *Port Facilities of Pathein Outport Coastal length is divided into three coastal regions; Rakhine Coastal Region (from the mouth of the Naff River to Mawtin Point) Ship to Accommodate, etc. Port Facilities Remark Ayeyarwaddy Delta and MAPT Jetty: For 9 - Steel PontoonJetties. MAPT Jetty has railway Oceangoing Vessels up MAPT Wedaung Jetty. siding along the berth. Gulf of Mottama Region to 5,000 DWT. Others: Navy Jetty. Inland Water up to 100 19-Rice Warehouses DWT. (1,050 ton each). (from Mawtin Point to the Gulf of Mottama) Existing of mangrove is in three coastal regions; Prevailing mangrove forest covers about 382000 hectares Destruction of mangroves and deforestation in the coastal region due to the Cyclone Nargis put it more at risk in future
*
Tourism Attraction
*Beautiful estuaries
*Unspoilt beaches
*Tidal forest
*Wildlife sanctuary
*Chaung Tha Beach, Ngwe Saung Beach, Meinmahla Kyun
3 Economic Potentials in Ayeyarwady Delta Area *Water, Land, Climate, Workforce and Technology are Ayeyarwady Delta Area is rice granary of the country necessary for development of a region. Agricultural products can upgrade to the maximum potential associated with irrigation facilities. *It can be said that Ayeyarwady Delta possesses these foundation. On the basis of soil type , weather and temperature; orchard , paddy - fish farming and seasonal crops are recommended for the investors.
Prawn farming and fish farming are distinguished potential in aqua cultural sector
Conclusion
The Ayeyarwady Delta is rich with potentials several sectors
Cyclone Nargis highlighted the need for a scientific understanding of the hazards, risks and vulnerabilities in delta region
Activities undertaking for the conservation of mangrove forest are very essential for Ayeyarwady delta
Integrated mangrove rehabilitation and management through community participation projects in the area should enhance forever
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Key characteristics
Rhine-Meuse delta plain area: ~7500 km2; large parts below sea level (down to -6 m) Mean annual discharge: Rhine 2300 m3/s; Meuse 230 m3/s Catchment area: Rhine 185,000 km2; Meuse 36,000 km2 Holocene delta deposits: ≤15 m thick (extensive Rotterdam Rhine – Meuse delta peat beds) A short introduction Flood protection: coastal dunes, dams and dikes Population: ~6,5 million
22 October 2012 Demographic trends – population density ~500 inhabitants/km2; high pressure on space Workshop Challenges and Approaches in River Delta Planning
Infrastructure: Europe’s largest seaport (Rotterdam) Marcel Marchand and fourth largest airport (Schiphol)
The Netherlands
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Key characteristics – Delta works Key characteristics - Urbanisation
Rotterdam
Drivers of change Key issues
Demographic trends – minor growth of population Economic developments – GDP/capita US$ ~30,000; 97% of working population employed in Vulnerability to flooding – safety levels: 1/1250 (river services and industry; expanding knowledge-intensive industry dikes) to 1/10,000 years (coastal defense); sea-level rise and growing investments will increase flood risk Technological developments – research institutes for ‘delta technology’; many academic and research programs in hydraulic engineering and water management at universities Freshwater shortage – rising sea levels will increase Climate change – Sea level rise and changes in river discharge salt water seepage and will cause local freshwater shortages Biodive rs ity – Gradua l deterio rat io n o f estua rine a nd coastal ecosystems (pollution and reduced hydrodynamics)
Main measures already taken Committee on Sustainable Coastal Development
Flood protection infrastructure – adaptation to climate change requires 1.2 to 1.6 billion €/year until Advice on protecting the coast and the 2050 entire low lying part of the Netherlands against the consequences of climate Sand nourishment– stable coastline; increased change on a time scale of 2100 –2200 maintenance needed Wider scope than only safety, multifunctional approach Room for the river – major programme on flood risk reduction and nature rehabilitation
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Delta Scenarios River Discharge
Summer: 1700 m3/s 700 m3/s in 2100
Winter: 16. 000 m3/s 18.000 m3/s in 2100
Sea Level Rise Measures and costs
< 2050: 1,2 tot 1,6 billion euro /yr
2050 – 2100: Sea level rise: 0,9 tot 1,5 billion euro /yr 2050: + 0.4 m Beach nourishment for coastal land 2100: + 0.65 - 1.30 m reclamation: 0.1 – 0.3 billion euro/yr 2200: + 2 - 4 m (GNP = 550 billion euro/yr)
Measures – overview Delta decisions
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Innovations Planning and design
Governance issues
Governmental cooperation – governmental ‘Delta Commission’ has drafted a long-term vision for delta management (more sustainability, while maintaining safety levels)
Cooperation between government and private sector – many Public-Private Partnerships in the fields of infrastructure, housing and coastal defense
Involvement of stakeholders and citizens – procured by laws and legal instruments; many NGOs are influencing policy and implementation of plans
Approaches for dealing with risks and uncertainties – growing attention for flood risk awareness- raising, implementation of more resilient flood risk management strategies, and early-warning and recovery programs
Main strengths and weaknesses Main strengths and weaknesses in planning
Strenghts: • Knowledge basis • Active civil society • Waterschappen (waterboards) • Delta Law
Weaknesses • Water management and spatial planning not well integrated (but recent new department for Space and Water is good start) • Long procedures create uncertainty among local people • (Too?) many administrative layers
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Contents
• Drivers delta development Delta planning approaches • Role delta planning Wim Douven, UNESCO‐IHE • Approaches in delta planning • Determining factors in delta planning
Challenges and Approaches in River Delta Planning
22‐26 October 2012, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Delta development in the Delta development in the Netherlands Netherlands
Phase 1 (11th‐19th century) Phase 2 (19th –late 20th century) • Transformation of delta ‐ reclamation, cultivation and urbanization ‐ is result of plurality of small‐scale • Increasing significance of the national government initiatives. which made large infrastructural works possible like • Initiating parties mainly private entrepreneurs and city chlihanneling rivers, ZidZuiderzee works and DDltelta works. governments. Resulted in: • Mosaic of small polders, villages and town centres • Structure and typology mainly determined by systems of dams and water management Meyer et al., 2010 Meyer et al., 2010
Delta development in the Some factors driving Dutch delta Netherlands development Transition to a third Phase (late 20th century ‐ ongoing): • Individual / local entrepreneurship • Nature and ecology gain importance. • (Risk of) disasters • • Lot of discussion on measures to be taken. Institutional structure • Economic development • Central role of national government reduced. • Technical innovations • Growing concern about climate change impacts. • .. Emerging approach : • Flood protection priority nr. 1 • Delta should be approached as a complex adaptive system.
Meyer et al., 2010
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Changing role of planning in Why adaptive flexible planning? Netherlands (over centuries)
• From local planning to national planning to a mixed • Complex system model with planning at different levels with • Many stakeholders coordinating roles. • Large uncertainty
• From water sector planning to multiple sector planning (water, spatial planning, environment and others)
• From blueprint and detailed planning to providing a framework for development through a more adaptive flexible planning approach.
Exampe Drivers‐Pressure‐State‐ Addressing complexity in planning? Impact‐Response (DPSIR) An approach: • Broad system understanding , e.g. DPSIR
• Identify external and internal factors. Internal are those you Problem: Decreasing air, water and soil quality could influence: – Water ? – Water, food, environment, economy, etc... .. ? Driving forces Pressures State Impact Response • Develop strategic plan on longer term E.g. Econ. E.g. Industries E.g. air, water, E.g. Health E.g. clean development and polluting soil quality production • Develop detailed shorter term plans emissions – Check whether in line with strategic plan – Assess / mitigate possible impacts to related areas, e.g • Environmental Impact Assessment • Strategic Environmental Assessment • Monitoring, evaluation, adjust ..
Planning: Instrument for public Addressing complexity in planning? participation An approach: • Solutions to complex problems that are based on wide • Broad system understanding , e.g. DPSIR stakeholder consultation and involvement are more • Identify external and internal factors. Internal are those you could influence: sustainable. – Water ? • Complex problems related to land and water use – Water, food, environment, economy, etc... .. ? require locally tailored solutions. It is difficult to • Develop strategic plan on longer term achieve these without the local knowledge that • Develop detailed shorter term plans stakeholders bring. – Check whether in line with strategic plan – Assess / mitigate possible impacts to related areas • Environmental Impact Assessment • Strategic Environmental Assessment • Monitoring, evaluation, adjust ..
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Addressing uncertainty in planning Scenario planning
• When facing deep uncertainty, decision makers can • Scenario planning consider multiple plausible outcomes. • Robust and flexible strategies • Scenarios present a set of different, plausible future • Adaptive management conditions (or ‘states of the world'). • …
Robust or resilient strategies Adaptive management
• Identify strategies that will work reasonably well across • Decision makers seek strategies that can be modified a wide range of alternative futures. once new insights are gained from experience and research. – E.g. no regret measures • They make choices based on their best assessment and that of people whose advice they value. • Learning, experimenting and evaluation are actively planned for in decision‐making. • However, incremental adaptation should be possible.
Determining factors in planning
• Political will • Financial possibilities • Planning history • Institutions (structure, mandates, coordination) • Scientific insights Thkhank you • Toolbox and data availability • Human capacities Questions?
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Visioning and scenario building
• An approach to improved Example vision and scenario based planning that: planning cycle • Deals explicitly with Introduction to participatory scenario uncertainty • Helps to identify and building minimise risk • Provides a framework for stakeholder platforms and interaction
Key concepts: Vision Key concepts: Scenarios
• A scenario is a consistent • A vision is a concise description of a possible future description of a desired situation as determined by those future state. Visions provide factors that are both most a picture of how we would important and most uncertain. like the world (or our water • Scenarios are stories about the resources and services) to be way the world might turn out at some future time. tomorrow. They help to identify Consensus on this vision is possible pathways (strategies) required. towards a shared vision of the future.
Key concepts: Strategies Key concepts: a Plan
• A strategy is a medium to long‐term planning • A plan is a coherent set of framework within which concrete activities are decisions about the use of identified. resources, translated in • Over time an effective strategy should lead to activities that, taken achievemen t of the viiision under the assumption a together, have the potential scenario. to achieve a vision. • For each scenario different strategies can be developed. • A plan includes an explicit • Strategies should be regularly updated in the light of statement of the methods new information. to be used, costs, responsibilities, schedule of activities and agreed targets.
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Scenarios Strategies Divergent futures Convergent activities to based on current trends achieve the vision
Starting point Vision 2040
• In reality – multiple strategies to fit any scenario • Best strategies are those that will achieve vision under Monitoring by indicators multiple scenarios
Planning issues
• Complexity • Timing and time scales • Integrating river issues (holistic) • Interdependency of sub‐activities • Flexibility – Process approach versus end‐product approach – Instrument for public participation • Communication,consultation, participation • Toolbox and data availability • Capacity building
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Biophysical and Socio-economic Scenarios for long term delta plans
Dr. Fulco Ludwig Earth System Science and Climate Change Group Wageningen University
23 October 2012 www.ess.wur.nl/UK/People/Fulco+Ludwig
Quote from Ho Long Phi Why do we need scenarios
. Scenarios are plausible, and often simplified, representation of future state of socio-economic and biophysical parameters – scenarios are neither predictions nor forecasts; “External impacts can be neither ● There are no probabilities linked to different scenarios . Both future climate and socio-economic development are predicted nor controlled” uncertainty . Key Uncertainties in climate change scenarios ● Future greenhouse gas emissions ● Carbon sensitivity ● Impact of global warming on changes in hydrological cycle . Key Uncertainties in socio-economic scenarios ● Future economic development ● Future national and local population density ● Direction of development (rural vs. urban/agriculture vs industrial)
Interactions between socio-economic and Key features of climate change and water climate change scenario scenarios
d water•Water scenarios availability development and stress: Howapproach • Flooding events may be worse if there is a larger much water will be available for different population living on the flood plain as a result of planning delta functions under C.C and decisions. development scenarios?
• The effect of climate change on crop yields will depend on •Sea-level rise and salinization: To Boundary conditions how many farmers have planted the crops, whether their what extent SLR and resulting salinity for planning and farm income is dependent on that crop, in turn depending intrusion change the delta’s soil and water testing robustness of on agricultural subsidies, access to technology and so on. systems? proposed solutions
• Some technological developments, such as improvement •Climate and water related risks of weather forecasting, may better enable precautions to focusing on flood and drought: How be taken to diminish vulnerability to extreme weather events. flood/drought patterns i.e. frequency, intensity, hot-spots change in future?
Source: Lu 2006 6
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Most important biophysical indicators for which Modelling Framework for Bangladesh Delta we need scenarios in the deltas Scenarios Water availability and stress Sea Level Rise Scenarios . Regional Climate Models ● changes in (upstream) river flow patterns
● Changes in water demand Bias Correction Mike Regional Salinity model Hydrological . Water quality – focussing on changes in salinity – driven by model
● changes of upstream flow - mainly dry season/ low VICfor the Ganges and flows Brahmaputra Basin ● changes in sea level . Future Flood risks CC Impacts on CC Impacts on CC Impacts on large scale floods and water salt water intrusion ● changes in sea level rise discharge patterns availability ● local rainfall – wet extremes Integrated Scenario Development and ● upstream flows (high flows) Vulnerability Assessment
Components of sea level rise Sea level rise
1961 to 2003 1993 to 2003
Future Sea Level Rise according to the Regional Sea Level IPCC
Deviations from global mean sea level rise by 2100
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Could sea level rise be much higher than estimated by the IPCC
. The IPCC estimates of global sea level rise exclude possible rapid melting of the Greenland (and Antarctic) ice-sheet ● Recent research shows that model estimates used in the IPCC report are too conservative (low) . It is unknown how stable the ice sheets are
Volume:Volume: 2.8x10 2.8x1015 15m3m=3 7= meters7 meters of ofsea sea level level Ice sheet response time “is of the order of Ice sheet response time “is of the order of centuries, not millennia”. (Hansen 2005) centuries, not millennia”. Hansen (2005)
Sea level rise according to the Dutch Delta Climate change Committee impacts on run-off in Ganges Basin
. 2050: + 0.4 m . 2100: + 0.65 - 1.30 m . 2200: + 2 - 4 m
Run-off scenarios Ganges-Brahmaputra Mekong river flow scenarios Mekong Discharge Scenarios
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Impact of SLR on Salinity Intrusion Impact scenarios for the Dutch Delta Movement of 5 ppt Salinity line
Khulna
Mongla
0 SLR Hiron Point 32 cm SLR 88 cm SLR
Source: IWM
Salinity intrusion mapping using salinity model of southwest region of Bangladesh Summary climate change scenarios Mekong DeltaImpact Moderate scenarios High Scenario 2050 2100 2050 2100 Sea Level Rise 20-30cm 30-50cm 40-60 cm 100-200 cm Temperature +1°C+2°C+2°C+4°C Dry season rainfall 0--10% -5% - -15% -10% - -20% -20% - -40% Wet season rainfall 0 - +5% +5%- + 10% +10 - +20% +10 – +30% Dry season flow of -5%- + 5% -15- +5% -10%─ -30% -30%─ - 60% Mekong No Wet Season flow +10% 0 ---+10% +20% - +50% change Slight Moderate Moderate Salinity intrusion Dramatic increase increase increase increase Rapid increase of No Moderate Moderate Extreme rainfall events number and change increase increase severity Moderate Increase in No Change in salinity due to increase of Typhoons increase in No change frequency and change inflow from upstream by 575 cumec in severity severity May 2007 Source: IWM
Long term socio economic scenarios Mekong Delta Economic diversification Economic diversification / Land Use Corridor industrialization Dual node industrialization
Corridor industrialization Dual node industrialization
3 4
Sppyatially evolving Sppyatially Sppyatially evolving Sppyatially Coordinated directed
1 1 2
Food security Agro‐business specialization
Agro‐based economy / Land Use Food security Agro‐business specialization Agro‐based economy
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Economic diversification When developing scenarios for water / delta Deltascenarios management: do not focus Corridor industrialization Dual node industrialization on climate change only, but • Global market liberalization taking off, • Global market liberalization taking off, HCMC flourishing also consider socio- HCMC florishing economic change High socio‐economic growth • Urbanization & industrialization developing • Urbanization & industrialization developing in dual modes of HCMC and Western side of naturally around Can Tho – HCMC corridor Can Tho • high value added specialized agro-economy • Port & waterway development around is developing Western side •Development on fertile soil • Fresh water supply issues around Western Crowd Steam side of Can Tho, but less flood prone area Spatially Spatially evolving Food security Agro-business specialization coordinated
• global market liberalization not taking off, • Global market liberalization increasing gobal economic growth stagnating Moderate Fast •Urbanization & industrialization • HCMC development slowing down concentrated outside MD climate change climate change • Rural population density increases in MD in • Large migration towards middle-income scattered way, slums around Can Tho jobs in HCMC • Land use pressures agriculture productivity • population decreases significantly, driving sustainable devl of aquaculture problematic force for agro specialization • Priority on food security, dominated by rice • Agri-food development upscaled and (land area of 1,781mln ha for rice cultivation specializes Rest Warm is maintaned) higher value add products are not taking place • Industry and export specialized on high added value agri-food business • Sustainability issues arise, high flood vulnerabilities, high out migration Agro-based economy Moderate socio‐economic growth
The Dutch Deltascenarios 2100: REST and WARM vs STEAM and CROWD
18 november 2011
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Climate Change Adaptation
Dr. Fulco Ludwig Developing Countries Most At Risk: Earth System Science Group 6 Climate Threats Wageningen University Drought Flood Storm Coastal 1m Coastal 5m Agriculture All low-lying Island All low-lying Island Malawi Bangladesh Philippines Sudan 2 October 2012 States States Ethiopia China Bangladesh Vietnam Netherlands Senegal
Zimbabwe India Madagascar Egypt Japan Zimbabwe
India Cambodia Vietnam Tunisia Bangladesh Mali
Mozambique Mozambique Moldova Indonesia Philippines Zambia
Niger Laos Mongolia Mauritania Egypt Morocco
Mauritania Pakistan Haiti China Brazil Niger
Eritrea Sri Lanka Samoa Mexico Venezuela India
Sudan Thailand Tonga Myanmar Senegal Malawi
Chad Vietnam China Bangladesh Fiji Algeria
Kenya Benin Honduras Senegal Vietnam Ethiopia
Iran Rwanda Fiji Libya Denmark Pakistan
Low Income Source: World Bank Middle Income
Adaptation framework What is Climate Change Adaptation • Economic Wealth GHG emissions • Infrastructure and Technology • Institutions and Services • Information, Knowledge and Adaptation Adjustment in natural or human systems in Climate Change Skills • Equity response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their • Social Capital effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial Exposure Sensitivity opportunities.
Autonomous adaptation – Adaptation that does not constitute a Potential Impacts Adaptive Capacity conscious response to climatic stimuli but is triggered by ecological changes in natural systems and by market or welfare changes in human systems. Also referred to as spontaneous adaptation. Vulnerability to Planned adaptation – Adaptation that is the result of a deliberate climate change policy decision, based on an awareness that conditions have changed or are about to change and that action is required to return to, maintain, or achieve a desired state.
Adaptation
Adaptation Concepts of adaptation
Potential impacts (assuming no adaptation) Expected impacts Avoidable(assumed autonomousimpacts adaptation) (through planned adaptation) Residual Theoretically avoidable impacts impacts ((gthrough perfect adaptation) ((gassuming adaptive autonomous exposure Unavoidable impacts and planned sensitivity capacity adaptation)
Acceptable risk: impacts Evaluation of the trade-offs between expected costs and benefits of different levels of vulnerability adaptation
Füssel 2007
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Methods, tools and the adaptation cycle Bottom-up vs Top-down adaptation
Step 1 CC impacts/ vulnerability assessment
Step 3
Evaluation of Design and adaptation selection of options adaptation options
Step 2
Source: Dessai and Hulme, 2003
Step 1a. Climate Step 1b CC Impact Step 2. Selection Step 3. Evaluation Downscaling model/ Vulnerability of adaptation of adaptation model/data set assessment options options How to deal –top down
Multisectoral / Very Limited Number of (Social) Cost – Common practice‐ IPCC/ KNMI visualization / tools Benefit Analyses Integration tools ADAM Digital Compendium ClimateCost Klimaatatlas Adaptation Catalogue Calvin Scenario oriented SIMCLIM The Adaptation Actions Optimization Models CIAM database FARM-Adapt RegIS ESPACE - A toolkit for Berg River Spatial ‘Predict‐than‐act’ dlideliver ing water equilibr ium mo de l – Structure problem management climate change Water/Agricultural adaptation through the models Regional Climate Hydrological/ planning system’ WEAP Characterize uncertainty Models Hydraulic models Touchtable VIC REMO Sobek MIKE models PRECIS Lisflood APSIM RACMO VIC Rank decision options Data Sets WEAP Covering all steps: Adaptation guidelines WikiAdapt Climate Mike UKCIP – Adaptation Wizard Change Explorer Agricultural NordRegio, ‘Climate Change Emergencies Conduct sensitivity analysis Ensembles data Models and European Municipalities: Guidelines for set Apsim Adaptation and Response Wofost The Australian Government’s Climate Change Impacts & Risk Management Guide for Business Suggest optimum alternative and Government Klimaatwijzer
How to deal‐ bottom up “Acceptable Adaptation “Acceptable Relative new in climate risk” (with risk” investments) science Structure problem x Thames 2100 1 ency Tipping points Propose one or more u strategies Freq Extremen Delta Committee Extremen Assess each strategy over Adaptation ‘Assess‐risk‐of‐policy’ wide range of plausible (autonomous) futures Drought Flood risk risk Summarize key trade offs
Suggest robust alternative Climate parameter (e.g. rainfall)
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Adaptation options – Examples from the water sector Climate Change 1. Structural options
Adapation (with Improved water storage “Acceptable investments) Groundwater risk” Dams Protection against flods Dikes and Levees x2 x1 Shelters ency u Desalination of salt water
Freq Water re-use Operational options Adaptation Irrigation planning (autonomous) Water Demand management
(Re-)introduction of local water rules
P2 P1 Climate parameter (e.g.rainfall)
Adaptation options in the water sector Adaptation occurs at different scales 2. Non-Structural options Large scale Local Scale Delta Works Risk management and spreading - Insurance On farm diversificantion Large Dams Land use planning/change Using different varieties Resettlement Living with water Changing planting dates Improving resilience New National building Improved Water use Indigenous knowledge codes efficiency Water management in stead of drought management – Change in infrastructure you can only manage water not droughts Changed irrigation New irrigation systems Disaster risk reduction techniques National Insurance Buying an air-conditioning Schemes The measurers. best adaptation strategies combine Micro-finance and structural (hard) and non-structural (soft) measures Land use change insurance Desalination plant Water Harvesting
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The problem…
Coastal erosion and what to do about it
25 October 2012 Workshop Challenges and Approaches in River Delta Planning
Marcel Marchand
Coastal erosion is a worldwide phenomenon social equity
Problem analysis
• Coastal erosion is a natural phenomenon. It becomes a problem if coastal functions are at risk: • Beach quality • Flood risk • Land loss • Understand the process: • is it structural or event-driven (storms)? • Is the coast in equilibrium or not? • What are the root causes? • Sediment belance • Effect of sea level rise
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Coastal cell: sediment budgets River basin developments
Equilibrium or not, that is the question Hard structures
Hard structures to protect the coast are often only making the problem worse
human interference Impact of sea level rise
HHWS cultivated mangroves hard structure mangroves MHW
tide-induced cross current (tidal filling) construction of dams / seawalls mud flatmud flat mud flat MLW in mangrove-mud systems decrease landward sediment transport (flux) ocean ocean ocean necessary for (mudbed) (mudbed) (mudbed) accretion
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Impact of sea level rise Measures: Set back lines
sea level rise
•needed for resilience •trade off between risks and economic profit
sea level rise and •risk lines requires modelling sediment loss co-operate
sediment sediment budget sediment loss gain
sea level fall and sediment gain co-operate
sea level fall
Measures: increase sediment supply Sand nourishments
•resilient / adaptive to sea level rise •requires monitoring/models •requires well established institutionalised erosion management
salt marsh works to increase trapping Hard structures
centuries experience in • robust / resistant Wadden Sea: • side effects permeable • not adaptive to sea level rise groins in salt marsh works
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Solutions: the costs
Type of structure Construction + maintenance costs over 50 years (in Euro per m coastline per year)
Straight rock groynes 50 to 150
Rock revetments 100 to 200
Shoreface nourishments (every 5 years) 100 to 200 (if sand is easily available)
Sea walls 150 to 300
Beach fills (every 3 years) 200 to 300 (if sand is easily available)
Submerged breakwaters 200 to 400
Emerged breakwaters 250 to 500
4 Mangroves disappear at fast rate!
Southern coast Thailand: 1973: most of the coast is lined with mangrove forest
Mangrove restoration: some ecological background and guidelines by 2000 most mangrove has disappeard by shrimp cultivation, new infrastructure and dykes
Marcel Marchand
Source: Mangroves: Nature’s defence against Tsunamis— A report on the impact of mangrove loss and shrimp farm development on coastal defences. Environmental Justice Foundation, London, UK.
Many restoration projects are not successful Many restoration projects are very expensive
20 year USAID in Philippines: 440 million juveniles planted on 44,000 ha at M$ 17.6 5 – 10 % survived (often after replantation)
Mangroves: 250 - 200,000 US Dollar / ha Seagrasses: up to 1 million US Dollar / ha Coral reefs: 10,000 – 5 million US Dollar / ha
5 Steps to successful mangrove restoration
Nature is the Understand mangrove ecology best eco-engineer Understand hydrology Assess what has changed (why no natural recovery?) * Scale * Natural Restore hydrology and allow natural recruitment Planting mangroves if there is no natural recruitment * Cost- effective
1 1. Mangrove ecology Mangrove forest as ecosystem
Mangrove forest is more than just Healthy forest is able to trees! influence its environment
Role of crabs: can be negative for young seedlingg(s (eatin g leaves ), but positive for full grown trees (digging holes good for oxygen)
Mangrove foodweb and nursery Natural recruitment
not by seeds, but propagules: kind of miniature trees that can quickly take root in a rough environment
Salt tolerance 2. Mangrove hydrology
Mangrove forest consists of trees which are salt tolerant. But salt is a stress for the tree:
20 ppt 35 ppt salinity means 50% growth reduction
In fresh water mangrove trees can grow, but are outcompeted by freshwater plants Fresh water prevents excess respiratory losses, salt water prevents invasion and competition of non halophytes Fresh water is a physiological requirement and salt water is an ecological requirement Each mangrove species has its own tolerance to salinity. This is the reason for zonation (next slide). Most of trees between Mean HW neap and Mean HW spring. So do not plant trees on mudflats that are on MSL!
2 Mangrove roots Sources of freshwater
river outflow: local rainfall groundwater
what could be the function of these root structures?
Understanding of physical coastal processes 3. Assess why mangrove disappeared
identify the stress; e.g. reduced freshwater due to barrier or dyke blocked tidal indundation due to dyke or otherwise tree felling for wood conversion to aquaculture overgrazing by goats , cattle storm surge or tsunami pollution coastal erosion weather variability climate change
4. Remove the stress 5. Planting
try to restore the original ONLY if natural recovery is not hydrodynamics happening, then plant trees! stop cutting trees etc. remove (part of ) aquaculture selection of trees: consult ecologist
select location: not on tidal flat, but then observe if mangrove seedlings above high water neap come back (natural seedling recruitment)
3 Make a plan with clear goals and objectives
ecological goals / conservation recreation & eco-tourism preservation of historic land-use flood control (water storage) coastal protection water quality improvement
Planning Participation
Adaptive management Other important issues:
Legal issues (ownership, tenure, conservation status) Management responsibility (maintenance) Sustainability Autonomous developments / external factors Integrated approach
• feed-back monitoring • lessons learnt
4 discussion?
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Developing agriculture, aquaculture and Pressures Assessment shows huge impact on hydrology (water environment based adaptation strategies in resources) – Saline, Brackish & Fresh
see level rise & typhoon surges coping with climate change in deltas fresh water floods (peak, flows, duration & run-off)
high intensity rainfall & dry spells Henk Wösten et al. How to cope with changing water conditions?
increase brackish water retention (storage of fresh water?) decrease salinity intrusion
increase high rainwater retention (reduce floods)
increase fresh water storage (flood protection & dry spell reserves)
increase coastal defence (high sea level & typhoon)
Increased water level may: Impacts CCA responses Reduce locations suitable for aquaculture
Increase cost for protection dikes and water pumping How to provide future water storage/regulation capacities? Increased salinity may: Where to provide for these water storage capacities? Reduce locations suitable for fresh water aquaculture species
Reduce time window for seasonal fresh water cultures CC has potentially drastic impacts on
Increase locations for brackish water cultures agriculture/aquaculture/nature Increased temperature may: Can we transform threats into opportunities? Alter fish’ physiological functions, e.g. thermal tolerance, growth, metabolism, food consumption, reproductive success Change goal of Natural Resources planning and management: Alter fish’ ability to maintain internal homeostasis In past: optimize land & water for production systems Reduce O2 in water => lower fish growth & farm income Modify biodiversity in rivers => reduce carrying capacity for effluent Future CCA : optimize systems to water regulation requirements nutrients => increase environmental impact
Process phases & outputs The Dutch delta 1. Identify & quantify CCA needs for Saline – Brackish – Fresh water storage/regulation and AE.
2. Define scope and water interrelations of AAN systems (aquaculture, crops, mangroves) providing these needs
3. Design innovative AAN systems with improved CCA of their water interrelations.
4. Integrate the AAN innovations into a CCA adaptation plan (provincial level) => CCA informed aquatic environments and their production capacity. Different services – different needs 5. Quantify the capacity of these CCA water retention/regulation o Food supply → freshwater services. o Nature conservation / biodiversity → natural systems 6. Define the potential for up-scaling these CCA strategies. o Safety → dams/dikes
1 11/18/2012
Our “backyard”: the Southwestern Delta Haringvliet dam and estuarine dynamics Reduction of: salinity gradient • Dynamic estuarine area with tidal current Stream velocity Tidal dynamics • Dynamics disappeared through Delta works Fish migration Biodiversity Increase of: Storage of polluted alluvial sediments (€) Erosion of banks (€) Safety (€) Freshwater supply (€)
Historic land reclamation: subsidence and salt Haringvliet: past and present intrusion Historically Without reclamation: With reclamation: salt marshes: land sinks below sea level : natural sedimentation = increasing vulnerability Haringvliet dam (1971): = increasing salt intrusion Thanks-17 sluices; for your 6 with attention fish sluices - Only open at low tide
Source: Information flyer ‘ Natuurlijk en Veilig’ (Province of Zuid-Holland e.a. Delta without present situation red = salt intrusion www.zuidholland.nl/kierbesluit reclamation without dikes
Future (= after 2010) Pressures and challenges for delta’s Population growth Urbanisation Food Supply Soil subsidence hydrology water resources Fresh water supply and demand vulnerability Climate change River run off Sea level rise Precipitation patterns ACCEPTABLE RISK - Water scarcity Temperature - Salinity - Floods
Source: Information flyer ‘ Natuurlijk en Veilig’ (Province of Zuid-Holland e.a.; www.zuidholland.nl/kierbesluit
2 11/18/2012
Problems in the Delta Alternative land use in estuaries: combining safety with other functions (“Wisselpolders”)
Salt intrusion offers Innovation and intensification in shellfish sector opportunities: Innovations for sustainable shellfish production Integrated culture systems Development Mussel seed collectors “Project Zeeuwse Tong” (PRI) Impact studies Optimization of technology Evaluation use of collectors Advice to ppyolicy develo pment Hatchery and Nursery systems Land based systems
Dutch aquaculture sector Building with nature: the use of ecosystem engineers Small scale pilot 2009 Large scale pilot 2010
Trickling filter
Each reef: 400 m3, ± 230 tons of oyster shells
Fish tanks Lamella sedimentation unit
12 x 4 m 200 x 10 m Courtesy Fleuren & Nooijen BV, Someren, The Netherlands
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Hard substrates: hotspots for biodiversity? Agricultural/Aquaculture systems in VMD
1. Mangrove + Shrimp/clamps/fish = Brackish aquatic environment (AE)
2. Transition zone Brackish Fresh AE
3. Pangasius + rice = fresh water AE
Adapt and optimize production systems to optimize CCA storage/regulation requirements :
• Limiting salinity intrusion
• Reducing impacts of floods
• .....
Coastal Brackish Environment
provide a picture of poly culture based aquaculture with halophyte waste basin for mangrove regeneration
CCA services provided: Fishing in brackish Intensive shrimp Non-forest (sea coastal defence (Mangrove) AE farm grass) brackish water retention (aquaculture)
User/production services: BD/nature fish and $
Mangrove-shrimp Mangrove-shrimp Fish pond & (mixed) (separated) vegetable
Brackish-Fresh Transition zone
a) brackish polyculture aquaculture next to rice system, highlighting fresh flow services to aquaculture
b) seasonal altering brackish aquaculture and fresh rice culture?
Source: Can Tho University, 2009
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Fresh water zone - rice Room for the Mekong Floods picture of paddy field, with now standing water picture of flood plain, centre river, two sides (AWDI) (innovation of farmer and irrigation controlled flood plains, outer protected rice practices) systems, flood plains with fresh fish & recession agriculture
CCA service: rainwater retention: potential CCA services: seasonal flood retention/protection capacity: 10 cm st orage i n fi e ld, for 1 Mil. Ha = & dry season reserve Full-dyke <> semi-dyke 1,000,000,000 m3 (1 Mha rice is around 30% of user functions: fish & rice Mekong Delta?)
Eel culture during flood season
Process Look at, and work with present water use(r)s in CCA relevant aquatic environments Thank you What changes/innovations are needed in todays water use systems to optimize: the CCA water storage/regulation functions? secure prodtiit/BDfthductivity/BD of the syst em?
5 Contents Managing the • The proportion ‘urban’ in deltas: • Where is ‘urban’ population? What, Where, How • The c ha llenge • Hope, lessons and possible solutions City of Mumbai: Two facets, a glittering skylines • Take-home message and world’s largest slums Assela Pathirana UNESCO-IHE
What is the correct size of the ‘Urban Issue’
Climate Changg,e, Poverty, Hung er, War, Nuclear proliferation, …
If Global Climate Urbanization is Complex…
• Local scale – higher uncertainty. • Development do not follow plans. • Lot of ‘noise’ around • + Transpiration trends. • + Infiltration • * Overland/drainage flow
1 Changing Rainfall Mumbai Rainfall Change due to UHI
Source: Pathirana, et al, 2012 (in review)
Slums: Urban Poverty Water quality issues
The proportion of ‘the urban Urbanization is … issue’ • Majority of the humanity live in cities. [][] • Many problems associated with people – invariably connected to cities. • Cities a ffec t th e ‘ envi ronmen t’ ou tsid e [] them. • Cities become hotspots in Hazard and Vulnerability.
2 Where is the 3.7 billion*
Where do they live ? 40 35 30 25 (millions)
More than half of the world’s n 20 o population live in cities. But we 15
Populati 10 often stop here. Let’s look at the 5 details of the global urban picture. 0 City York
Lima Paris
Kong Aires Cairo Delhi Seoul
Lagos Paulo Taipei
Tok yo Dacca Osaka
Saigon Beijing Tehra n Lahore Manila Boston Bogotá Jakarta Wuhan Canton Janeiro Madrid Karachi Nagoya Madras London
Lumpur Chicago Tientsin Angeles Istanbul Calcutta Bombay
Chengtu
Bangkok Moscow Kinshasa Baghdad Shanghai New Francisco Shenyang São Shenzhen
Singapore Bangalore de Chungking
Hong Hyderabad Los Mexico Washington Ahmedabad Philadelphia Buenos San Kuala Johannesburg Rio Megacities?
The ‘rest of the cities’ 2.0 Where do world's 1.5 'Urban' Population Live Billions
in
n 1.0
0.5 Populatio 0.0 <1 1‐22‐44‐88‐16 16‐34 Population class (millons)
Urbanization == Megacities is a myth. • To solve urban problems: The Challenge – Focus on all sizes. – Small cities often get less attention Whyyg dealing with cities , particularly with their future is a challenging business.
A photo from the ‘occupy the wall street movement’
3 Difficult to predict at urban scales Variability within models!
GCM grid values for Kochi GCM grid values for Kochi location location Period: 2046-2065 Period: 2081-2100 n a [mm] 24 hourly 24 hourly rainfall me
How good we are in predicting: How good are we in ‘Predictions’ of oil price predictions?
The standard Future We’ve never been here before!
Forecast is `always wrong’ • Combination of forces • Climate scenarios are just what they are – External – Internal Neufville and Scholtes, 2011 • Beyond prediction • Deep Uncertainty Focus on impact
4 D. Uncertainty vs. ‘Certainty’
• Future uncertainty • Present problems – certain issues. • Reconcile in solutions
But, then we’ve been here! Hope, lessons and learning • Many elements we’ve from history experienced. • Slightly differently. Like manyyp other human problems urbanization issues also has • LitLessons exist. parallels. We can learn from history from each other. And there History has plenty of examples where not is always hope – particularly when learning from the past lead see ‘success stories’ closer to us. to the downfall of powers.
Venice of the East Breda 1956, 2003
• Bangkok • Khlongs > Roads Cor Dijkgraaf
5 The Nation,Thailand Room For the river the River the River Room for Room for
Kaohsiung Learn from istory what worked and H what did not Kaohsiungof Museum
6 Kaohsiung City – Case to share
Green Corridor
Total Detention Capacity 1.6 M m3 And increasing … theodora.com
• Reduced flood risk Benefits • Ecological • Livability – top 100
(圖片來源 Photo by: Topos, vol.55, 2006)(圖片來源 Photo by: 陸曉筠) (圖片來源 Photo by: ASLA) • Financial returns!
(圖片來源 Photo by: Topos, vol.55, 2006)(圖片來源 Photo by: Topos, vol.60, 2007)(圖片來源 Photo by: Topos, vol.55, 2006) Trotter y
(圖片來源 Photo by: 陸曉筠) (圖片來源 Photo by: ASLA) (圖片來源 Photo by: ASLA) Henr
Learning from History • Netherlands yesterday > Kaohsiung today • Kaoshiung > Bangkok • Bagkok > HCMC k Exposure • … Turning Point Flood Ris
Kuznet’s Curve
Conflicting Environmental Degradation Economic Development phase
7 Leap-frogging the development : Tunnelling the EKC ? • Not many examples in History does not history!! repeat itself • Very appealing possibility!! bibut it rhymes -- Mark Twain
Wrong lesson from history/from Right lessons ? each other • Diversity • Trying to predict in spot forecasts. of possible futures. • Range of possibiliti es.
A network of Cities: MARE*-Asia How?
* Managing adapting responses to a changing flood risk
8 LAA Climate change reminded us of Learning and Action Alliance a perpetual reality – uncertainty • The future is reliably unpredictable. • Open partnerships • Key representatives – City authorities, proviildincial and nat iona l authorities – NGO and citizens – Experts/Academia – Private sector • Pilot sites (Specific context) “Learning by Doing”
Resilience Some approaches • Ability to face, endure and recover • Land-use evolution scenarios: • Ability to adapt to a range of different futures. – Highly useful in understanding range of futures. – Can be the basis of many other scenarios • Modeling: Highly unreliable, but the only way. – Take modeling in context: Understand the range of possibilities. – Never hide the uncertainity.
Conclusions • ‘urbanization’ much more than mega-cities. • Urban contexts are highly unpredictable. • ItdlImpacts are deal-wide. • Scenarios, ranges – not single prediction. • History does not repeat – exactly. After WilliamVeeerbeek
9 11/18/2012
River deltas are valuable: provide food to the world underpin economies sustain biodiversity pollution River deltas are vulnerable: home to many people urbanization flooding and drought land subsidence and erosion overall loss of environmental quality
economic growth And pressures are increasing: population growth climate change
Deltas are facing many similar challenges
issues loss of ageing or environmental pressure on flood freshwater inadequate quality and deltas space vulnerability shortage infrastructure coastal erosion biodiversity Yangtze River Delta (China) **** ** *** * * **** Mekong River Delta (Vietnam) ** **** **** ** * *** Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta (Bangladesh) **** **** ** ** **** **** Ciliwung River Delta (Indonesia) **** **** ** ** * **** Mahakam River Delta (()Indonesia) ** *** *** ** *** ***
Nile River Delta (Egypt) **** * **** **** ** ** Rhine River Delta (Netherlands) *** ** ** *** ** * Mississippi River Delta (USA) * **** * **** **** **** California Delta and Bay (USA) ** **** **** *** * *** Pantanal Inland Delta (Brazil)
* relatively minor problem, now and in the near future ** currently a minor problem, but is likely to increase in the near future Deltas most vulnerable to Climate Change *** currently already a big problem, future trend uncertain **** currently already a big problem, likely to increase in the near future IPCC 4th Assessment – Climate Change 2007 Synthesis Report
What is Delta Alliance? Delta Alliance Resilience Strategy
• International network between deltas • Knowledge driven Delta Alliance mission: Improving the resilience of deltas worldwide, in partnership with other • Multi-sector, interdisciplinary organizations, through: • Framework and support for successful international cooperation 1. defining resilience for deltas; • Int ernati onal D elt a Alli ance F ound ati on 2. measuring and monitoring resilience; Mission: improve the resilience of deltas worldwide 3. reporting resilience and advocating for improved resilience; Through: • Generating jointly more integrated and effective knowledge 4. providing inspiration for improved resilience; and • Sharing knowledge • Reduce unnecessary overlap 5. providing assistance for improved resilience. • Identifying knowledge gaps. A framework for activities within Delta Alliance
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Organizational structure Delta Alliance International Delta Alliance Declaration . Signed during WhereasDelta Delta Alliance Alliance Launch has the mission to improve the resilience of deltas worldwide Whereasin Rotterdam deltas are highly valuable and vulnerable locations Whereas economic, ecological, and social resilience are interdependent and essential for overall resilience
The members of Delta Alliance will togggether develop and share knowledge to: • envisionSigne resilientd b y D deltaselt a • measure,Alliance monitor members and report resilience in deltas, and • provide inspiration and support for improved resilience in deltas
In pursuing these goals, members will strive to: • shareProjects knowledge, and activitiesexpertise and best practices between deltas worldwide • co-createwithin andDelta integrate Alliance knowledge across deltas, sectors and disciplines • connectmust expertise embody and the parties from throughout the watershed • IncorporateDeclaration local knowledge in research and other knowledge-building activities, and • provide knowledge and insight to support any use, including education, policy development, investments and disaster response
Which countries and deltas are already connected? What do we expect from our Wings? Existing Wings • Indonesia: Ciliwung and Mahakam • To encourage and spread the concept • Vietnam : Mekong • To join, support and initiate further developments • Netherlands: Rhine – Meuse • To bring in projects and co-create new projects under the • USA - California: California Bay and Delta umbrella of Delta Alliance • USA – Louisiana: Mississippi • To support to the International Secretariat/ Foundation • China: Yangtze • To share projects, experiences, results • Egypt: Nile • Bangladesh: Ganges – Brahmaputra – Meghna • To guarantee continuation • Brazil: inner-delta Pantanal • Argentina: Parana Candidate Wings: • Taiwan, Mozambique, Senegal, Australia, Japan, Thailand, European network of deltas, other USA-deltas.
Project suggestions 3rd phase (1) Examples of co-creation (with Dutch support) Description • International twinning projects with Dutch National Project title Science Council (NWO) (in preparation)
Improving the adaptation tipping point The ATP approach is very useful for assessing the vulnerability of a delta to climate change. But the approach has not been tested on a range of different deltas. Hence the idea is to make the approach more – Urbanising deltas (post-doc program) (ATP) method robust by applying it along a range of deltas. Investigation of future application of downscaled regional climate models to study the impacts of both – Water and Climate programs (PhD and post-doc program) human welfare, economic perspectives and biodiversity preservation in an integrative way, on an estuary Risk assessment and modelling and coastal zone. Such models are used in a number of delta regions, and their outputs and effectiveness can be compared to identify what inter‐delta cooperation on modelling may be useful. “Climate atlases” • Int ernati onal cooperati on with Du tc h capac ity such as exist for The Netherlands may be created for other deltas. development programs (Nuffic Niche) (in preparation) Preparing a report and poster that compare adaptation strategies and policies in focus delta regions. This Adaptation policies and strategies project can be inspired by and build upon a PEER project comparing adaptation strategies in European countries. – Facilitating exchange between various programs within and Creation of a book that describes the expected challenges brought by sea level rise in focus river deltas between several countries and presenting examples of how these deltas are responding to these issues. Special attention will be paid Sea level rise challenges and responses to the balance of economy and ecology. This project can be inspired by and build upon a project by Deltares, Alterra and Arcadis in the San Francisco Bay. • Cooperation with the Dutch International Water Policy Introducing a new frame for multi‐actor analysis and design of governance in delta management. New approach to analysing governance in Identifying new opportunities for improved governance in delta management. The project will be focused program (Water Mondiaal) deltas on a selection of deltas and should enable a comparison of existing governance institutions / arrangements for i) spatial planning, ii) resource use and iii) water infrastructure. – Support to the Knowledge to Knowledge component in and + 18 project suggestions from the various Wings between Indonesia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Egypt and Mozambique
2 11/18/2012
www.delta-alliance.org
Other potential examples of co-creation • International Year of the Delta 2012? – UN organisations: UNEP, UNESCO – US organisations: NCED, NSF, USGS, universities, DRAGON, APA, etc – Indonesia: World Delta Summit Nov. 2011 – World Water Council: WWF6, Marseille – The Netherlands: BLUE (former Dutch Delta Design 2012), World Expo Korea, – Delta Alliance International conference 2012
An example of a Delta Alliance activity Delta Alliance event 2011
Comparative assessment of the vulnerability and resilience of 10 deltas
We are looking forward to an active participation Wageningen UR in improving the resilience of deltas worldwide!!
Thank you
3 Annex 5. Outcomes working sessions
'Delta planning approaches' (Day 2; Tuesday 23 October)
Presentation scenarios construction: Bangladesh and Myanmar Presentation scenarios construction: Indonesia Presentation scenarios construction: Vietnam Mekong delta
‘Synergizing and conclusions’ (Day 5; Friday 25 October)
Presentation upstream delta Presentation urban delta Presentation coastal delta
14
11/18/2012
High economic growth
Population: 250 million (2025), 300 million (2050) Population: 250 million (2025), 300 million (2050) Scenario for Ganges‐ Economic growth: 9% in 2025, 15% (2050) Economic growth: 9% in 2025, 15% (2050) Agriculture land change: ‐1% (2025), 0% (2050) Agriculture land change: ‐1% (2025), 0% (2050) Poverty: 30% (2025), 25% (2050) Poverty: 30% (2025), 25% (2050)
Brahmaputra – Meghna Delta SLR: 14 cm (2025), 25 cm (2050) SLR: 18 cm (2025), 32 cm (2050) Faster Salinity affected area: 5% (2025), 10% (2050) Salinity affected area: 12% (2025), 18% (2050) change
Water flow: dry: ‐10% (2025), ‐15% (2050) Water flow: dry: ‐15% (2025), ‐20% (2050) climate wet: 15% (2025), 18% (2050) wet: 20% (2025), 25% (2050) climate
change Population: 270 million (2025), 320 million (2050) Population: 270 million (2025), 320 million (2050) Economic growth: 7% in 2025, 15% (2050) Economic growth: 7% in 2025, 15% (2050) Agriculture land change: ‐1% (2025), 0% (2050) Agriculture land change: ‐1% (2025), 0% (2050) Moderate Poverty: 40% (2025), 30% (2050) Poverty: 40% (2025), 30% (2050) SLR: 14 cm (2025), 25 cm (2050) SLR: 18 cm (2025), 32 cm (2050) Salinity affected area: 5% (2025), 10% (2050) Salinity affected area: 12% (2025), 18% (2050) Water flow: dry: ‐10% (2025), ‐15% (2050) Water flow: dry: ‐15% (2025), ‐20% (2050) wet: 15% (2025), 18% (2050) wet: 20% (2025), 25% (2050) Low economic growth
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Socio‐eco. growth
‐ Urbanization & Industrialization (high) ‐ Urbanization & Industrialization (high) ‐ Pollution (high: water, air, soil) ‐ Pollution (high: water, air, soil) ‐ Deforestation (medium) ‐ Deforestation (high) ‐ High Population. ‐ High Population . ‐ Decline in agricultural land (High). ‐ Decline in agricultural land (High). ‐ Infrastructure in upstream (Fast gr.) ‐ Infrastructure in upstream (Medium gr.) ‐ SLR (0.5m) ‐ SLR (2m) ‐ Salinity intrusion (moderate) ‐ Salinity intrusion (dramatic) Mekong Delta Planning ‐ Flood & Drought (slightly) ‐ Natural disasters: Flood, Drought, Erosion (severe) ‐ Storm (moderate) ‐ Storm (more frequently) ‐ Scarcity of fresh water (medium) ‐ Scarcity of fresh water (high) ‐ Aquaculture (high developp)ment) Scenarios ‐ 2100 Moderate CC High CC ‐ Urbanization & Industrialization (low) ‐ Urbanization & Industrialization (low) ‐ Pollution (low) ‐ Pollution (low) ‐ Deforestation (none) ‐ Deforestation (none) ‐ Population (Medium). ‐ Population (very low). Group 1 ‐ Decline in agricultural land (None). ‐ Decline in agricultural land (None). ‐ Infrastructure in upstream (Low gr.) ‐ Infrastructure in upstream (None) ‐ SLR (0.5m) ‐ SLR (2m) ‐ Salinity intrusion (moderate) ‐ Salinity intrusion (dramatic) ‐ Storm (moderate) ‐ Natural disasters: Flood, Drought, Erosion (severe) ‐ Scarcity of fresh water (low) ‐ Storm (more frequently) ‐ Aquaculture (low development) ‐ Scarcity of fresh water (medium) ‐ Aquaculture (low development) Socio‐eco. squeeze
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Mekong delta scenarios High socio‐economic growth
Mekong delta scenarios and the Fast
change Crowded Steam cli
m te
most significant water issues a ate
clim change Scenario year: 2050 Cool warm
Group 2 Moderate
Low socio‐economic growth
High socio‐economic growth
Increase in population : 27 mil. to 2050 Increase in population : 27 mil. to 2050 Issues Enhanced infrastructure Enhanced infrastructure High socio‐economic growth Rapid urbanization Rapid urbanization Loss of agricultural land Loss of agricultural land High income: decreased High income: ~10.000 USD/year Rainfall: + 10‐20% in wet season,‐ 10‐20% Rainfall: + 5% in wet season, 0 ‐10% in dry in dry season season SLR: 60 cm in 2050 Fast Fast SLR: 30 cm in 2050 Temperature: +2 oC Salt water intrusion o Water quality and quantity: strongly change change Temperature: +1 C change Water scarcity cli cli Water shortage Water quality m m te Water quality and quantity: slightly change Hydrology regime: significantly change te a a
Hydrology regime: abnormal ate ate Increase in population : 24 mil. to 2050 Increase in population : 24 mil. to 2050 clim clim change change Normal infrastructure development rate Normal infrastructure development rate Flood in wet season Normal urbanization Normal urbanization High income: ~3.500 USD/year High income: ~3.500 USD/year Water shortage Salt water intrusion Rainfall: + 5% in wet season, 0 ‐10% in dry Rainfall: + 10‐20% in wet season,‐ 10‐20% season in dry season
Moderate Moderate Water quality SLR: 30 cm in 2050 SLR: 60 cm in 2050 Temperature: +1 oC Temperature: +2 oC Water quality and quantity: slightly change Water quality and quantity: strongly change Hydrology regime: abnormal Water shortage Hydrology regime: significantly change
Low socio‐economic growth Low socio‐economic growth
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Contents 1. Vision 2. Challenges 3. Issues 4. Scenarios 5. Strategies 6. Conclusion UPSTREAM TEAM
Visions/Goals Challenges Sustainable economic development of the Delta by 2050 1. Food Security 2. Trans-boundary issues 3. Climate Change 4. Conservation of Biodiversity
Key Issues Driver Pressure State Impact Response Flooding in C.C. -Deforest. -Frequent - Damage of -Reforestation Development of Scenarios upstream Eco. -Lack of spatial & severity Agri. -Resettlement Socio-eco. growth growth planning -Increase -Infrastructure -Construct. of flood A B -Fluctuation of Flooding -Erosion proofing belief - Population Increase (~ +20%) - Population Increase (~ +18%) water flow area -Livestock -Flood forecasting & between dry and - Loss of warning system - Economic Growth (~ +15%) - Economic Growth (~ +14%) rain s. people -Innovation of - Scarcity of Water (~ -18%) - Scarcity of Water (~ -20%) -Sedimentat. cropping system - Change of Temperature (~ +.5oC) - Change of Temperature (~ +1.0oC) - Monitor. & Aware. - Change of Rainfall (dry: ~ -10%) - Change of Rainfall (dry: ~ -15%) Water - Mining -Toxin chemicals -Pollutant - Loss of - Construction of - Change of Rainfall (wet: ~ +15%) - Change of Rainfall (wet: ~ +20%) Quality -Agro- -Insecticide/ load Biodiversity ETP Industry Pesticide - Health & - Monitoring & Law Moderate CC High CC - Forest- Diseases enforcement Industry - Reduction of -Awareness Aquaculture - Population Increase (~ +22%) - Population Increase (~ +15%) production - Economic Growth (~ +10%) - Economic Growth (~ +8%) Degradation Eco. Deforestation Wetland - Loss of - Land zoning - Scarcity of Water (~ -15%) - Scarcity of Water (~ -16%) of Growth -Reaction of water will be difference of - Conservation - Change of Temperature (~ +.5oC) - Change of Temperature (~ +1.0oC) Biodiversity C.C. flow reduced Species - Restoration - Change of Rainfall (dry: ~ -10%) - Change of Rainfall (dry: ~ -15%) (Temp.) -Use of chemicals by area -Eco-system - Change of Rainfall (wet: ~ +15%) - Change of Rainfall (wet: ~ +20%) Deforest. -Connectivity disrupted Poverty between river and C D wetland Socio-eco. squeeze
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Indonesia Strategies for Scenario A Selection of Scenarios Strategy 1. Hard Measures: Startegy 2. Soft Measures: Scenario A Scenario D Sustainable Forestation Land zoning Optimistic Scenario with Pessimistic scenario with Conservation & Restoration Spatial planning (integrated) Assuming High Economic Assuming Low Economic Construction of ETP Law & Regulation Growth and Low Climate Growth and High Climate Establishment of compensation – Change. Change. connectivity between wetland incentive/disincentive – & river reward/punishment) The Best Scenario. The Worst Scenario. Establishment of buffer zone Law enforcement area Monitoring evaluation Green belt Cropping system The Scenario B & C are included of these two Scenarios Embankment/levee Flooding proofing building Construction of Water Warning system Management Structure Awareness building
Indonesia Vietnam Strategies for Scenario A Strategies for Scenario A Strategy 3. Combination of Hard & Soft Measures: Strategy 1. Hard Measures: Startegy 2. Soft Measures: Construction of ETP Land zoning Sustainable Forestation Land zoning River dredging Spatial planning Conservation & Restoration Spatial planning (integrated) Establishment of Law enforcement Construction of ETP Law & Regulation connectivity between (handling/implementation Establishment of compensation – wetland & river of the laws) connectivity between wetland incentive/disincentive – & river reward/punishment) Monitoring evaluation Establishment of buffer zone Law enforcement Improving Cropping area Monitoring evaluation system Green belt Cropping system Warning system Embankment/levee Flooding proofing building Awareness building Construction of Water Warning system Management Structure Awareness building
Vietnam Bangladesh Strategies for Scenario D Strategies for Scenario A Strategy 1. Hard Measures: Startegy 2. Soft Measures: Strategy 1. Hard Measures: Startegy 2. Soft Measures: Construction of Dyke (for Land zoning Construction of ETP Land zoning triple croppying system) Spatial planning Construction of Spatial planning Flooding proofing building Law enforcement embankment/levee Law enforcement Construction of ETP (handling/implementation Construction of Water Monitoring evaluation River dredging of the laws) Management Structure Cropping system Establishment of Monitoring evaluation River dredging & training Flood Forecasting & connectivity between Improving Cropping Establishment of Warning system wetland & river system connectivity between Awareness building Warning system wetland & river Awareness building
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Bangladesh Strategies for Scenario A Comparison of Strategies
Strategy 3. Combination of Hard & Soft Measures: Economic Side- Overall Strategy Effectiveness Flexibility Acceptance effects effects score Construction of ETP Land zoning Hard Very High Very High Strong Little Low Low Construction of Spatial planning Cost embankment/levee Law enforcement Soft Medium Low Cost Very High High High Construction of Water Monitoring evaluation Low Management Structure Cropping system River & Canal dredging & Flood Forecasting & Combination High Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium training Warning system of Hard & Soft Establishment of Awareness building connectivity between wetland & river
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The DPSIR framework (European environmental agency, 2004)
URBAN DELTA PLANNING
Urban group
DPSIR ANALYSIS ‐ URBAN ISSUES High economic growth 2050
High economic growth: ‐Urbanization: ++ ‐High rainfall: ++ ‐Production: ++ M D J ‐Sea level rise: CC + 0 + Fast
‐Infrastructure: + + +
rate CC e High economic growth: Mod ‐Urbanization: + ‐High rainfall: + ‐Production: + M D J ‐Sea level rise: 00 0 ‐Infrastructure: ‐‐‐‐
Decentralization Low economic growth
Long term goals Strategy 1: Decentralization of industrial area to outside the city
Goal 1: To reduce unplanned urbanization •Measure 1: New policies & regulations •Measure 2: Discussion & negotiation with the local government •Measure 3: Development of new infrastructure outside the city Goal 2: To ensure safe & adequate water supply Strategy 2: Introduce water sensitive land use planning Goal 3: To reduce the number of flood •Measure 1: Room for river •Measure 2: Sustainable urban drainage (e.g. green roof, rain water harvesting, waste water treatment plant)
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Evaluation
Criteria Strategy 1: Strategy 2: Decentralization of Introduce water sensitive industrial area to outside land use planning the city Effectiveness ++ ++ Economic effect +/‐ – (short term) / + ((glong term) Side effect • Vulnerability ↓ + • Livability ++ • Food security – • Urban heat control + • Political control – • Human health + • Urban agri. + Flexibility ++ – Acceptance +/‐ +/‐
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Major issues in four deltas
Issues Mekong, VN Telang, Ayeravadi, Ganges‐ Coastal Delta Indonesia Myanmar Brahm., BD
Coach: Marcel Marchand Salinity HHHH intrusion & freshwater Andi Irawan Ngan Le Thuy scarcity Dang Quang Thinh Nggyuyen Le Duy Land erosion M M M M Hoang Phi Long Nguyen Quang Truong & Le Thi Thu Ha Reaz U. Khan sedimentation Ly Quoc Dang Win Hlaing Loss of ML L L biodiversity M A R Shah Tidal flood M M H H Muhammad Thursina Cahya Nasif Ahsan
Responses Issues Driver Pressure State Impact Response Salinity - Upstream - Upstream flow Salinity - Decrease Salinity intrusion & Land erosion & sedimentation Tidal flood development reduction affected area employment freshwater scarcity - Sea level rise - Sea water opportunity 1, Sluices and gates 1, River bank/coastal dike 1, Coastal dikes +improvement - Climate change intrusion - Scarcity of fresh - Global market of - Change in water supply 2, Coastal embankment improvement 2, Pumping system shrimp precipitation - Reduction in crop 3, fresh water injection 2, Dam retrofit 3, Storm surge barrier - Increase in production 4, water transfer system 3, Storm surge barrier 4, Flood shelter aquaculture - Increase in water 5, desalination plant 4, Beach nourishment 5, Floating houses borne diseases 5, dredging river channel 6, Drainage system Land - Upstream - Reduction of - Land loss - Migration improvement erosion development sediment flow - Limited - Sea level rise -Tidal surge economic 6, Mangrove afforestation 6, Afforestation 7, Flood forecasting/early - Climate change - Land use change opportunities 7, Water regulation (dam) 7, Land use planning warning system - Global market of 8, Rain water harvesting improvement 8, Evacuation plan shrimp 9, Water allocation strategies 8, Strict control of sand 9, Floating agriculture 10, Efficient water use exploitation Tidal - Upstream - High tidal surge Flood - Agricultural crop flood development - Unplanned Water affected area damage 11, Salt tolerant crops - Sea level rise Management - Migration 12, Brackish water - Climate change Structures - Damage of Fish aquaculture - Global market of - Sedimentation in Farming 13, Change crop pattern shrimp Coastal River - Health Risk Awareness raising (policy makers, local people, managers, etc)
High SEG –moderate CC High SEG –high CC Upstream water flow (100K m3/hour 2012) Vision: Climate resilient and sustainable Upstream water flow (100K m3/hour 60.K m3/hour (2050) 2012) 70.K m3/hour (2050) Temperature change 30C 2012 31 C development of coastal delta Temperature change 30C (2012) 30.5 C (2050) (2050) SLR 0 Cm 50 cm (2050) Selected strategies SLR 0 Cm 32 cm (2050) Upstream urban area 0 03% (2050) Upstream urban area 0 03% (2050) Global for shrimp 0 15% (2050) 1: Adaptive strategies Global for shrimp 0 15% (2050) % of people availing low‐cost technologies ‐ Alternative agriculture and aquaculture practice (Salt tolerant crops, Brackish % of people availing low‐cost 30 75% (2050) technologies 30 75% (2050) water aquaculture, Change crop pattern, Floating agriculture) ‐ Improve freshwater supply system (salinity and flood) (fresh water injection, desalination plant) Low SEG –moderate CC Low SEG –high CC ‐Awareness raising Upstream water flow (100K m3/hour Upstream water flow (100K m3/hour ‐ Disaster Preparedness (Flood forecasting/early warning system, Evacuation plan) 2012) 60.K m3/hour 2050 2012) 60.K m3/hour 2050 Temperature change 30C 2012 31 C Temperature change 30C 2012 31 C 2050 2050 2: Preventive strategies SLR 0 Cm 50 cm SLR 0 Cm 50 cm ‐ Coastal protection (Sluices and gates, Coastal embankment, Storm surge barrier, Upstream urban area 0 12% Upstream urban area 0 12% Flood shelter) Global for shrimp 0 10% Global for shrimp 0 10% ‐ Regional diversion of water (water transfer system) % of people availing low‐cost technologies % of people availing low‐cost technologies ‐ Sediment management (Beach nourishment, dredging river channel) 30 48% 30 48%
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High SEG –moderate CC High SEG –high CC
Assessment of strategies Adaptive + Preventive strategies
Adaptive strategies Adaptive strategy Preventive strategy
Effectiveness ‐ +
Economic efficiency + ‐ (cost versus benefit)
Side effect + ‐ Low SEG –moderate CC Low SEG –high CC
Acceptance + ‐ Adaptive strategies Adaptive strategies
Flexibility + ‐
Robustness + ‐
2 Annex 6. Daily recapitulation
Recap Day 1 by Mohammad Aminur Rahman Shah Recap Day 2 by Long Hoang Phi Recap Day 5 by Le Thuy Ngan
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11/18/2012
Opening and introduction of participants
Training Workshop on Challenges and Approaches in River Delta Planning • Welcome address by Prof. Le Quang Minh, VNU Sharing experiences from SE Asian Deltas and the Rhine‐Meuse Delta ‐ Need integrated planning approach for water Ho Chi Minh City, 22‐26 Oct 2012 management ‐ Vietnam started the process Re‐cap of Day –1 • Speech by Mr. Martien Beek, First Secretary, Royal Introduction, Issues and Challenges Netherlands Embassy of Vietnam ‐ Need knowledge sharing and collaboration among delta countries ‐ Dutch support in delta countries ‐ welcomed to participate in Delta Conference 2013
• Introduction of the whole programme of the training workshop by Dr. Wim Douven
Presentation on Presentation on The Mekong delta’s challenges and Planning Implications The Mekong delta’s challenges and Planning Implications By Ho Long Phi, Director, WACC, VNU By Ho Long Phi, Director, WACC, VNU • Physical environmental settings • Possible responses could be protection, migration or adaptation • Socio‐economic condition • Planning approaches in MKD • Economic development is still below the national’s Is it a Win‐Win or Zero‐sum games? average and suffering a downtrend. How can we make it a Win‐Win? • Migration from MKD has been increasing since the last decade, most of them to HCMC. • Water management in the MKB and also within the delta has been still a Zero‐ sum game, in which upstream players set the rule of the game. • Major issues and challenges in MKD • Conflict resolution (transboundary‐ and delta‐wide) will be the most ‐ Flooding challenging objective of the planning. ‐ Salinity intrusion • Self‐Resilience of MKD would be most important– ‐ Climate change and Sea level rise ‐ The external impacts would be hardy resolved. ‐ Reduction of sedimentation by dams, and thus ‐ Adaptation capacity will reshape the future of MKD. reducing nutrient load and increase land subsidence ‐ Human resources of the MKD will be the most important factor that determines its resilience capacity.
Presentation on Enabling Delta Life: What makes managing land and water in deltas different? Presentation on Indonesian Rivers By Marcel Marchand, Deltares • Three cases – • Global initiatives for deltas ‐ Integrated water quality modeling for spatial planning‐ ‐ Delta Alliance two case study: Jakarta coastal watershed and ‐ GWP Enabling Deltas programme Mahakam watershed ‐ Deltas initiative: 2013 International Year of Deltas, towards a deltas ‐ Two examples of Coastal water sheds (urban) : Helena Lawira decadal science plan ‐ Ci Liwung river and Citarum river • Ten major reasons for giving importance to deltas (high population ‐ Main challenges are pollution from urban domestic waste and industries densities, lots of economic opportunities, natural disasters, threat of climat e change itimpacts, et)tc.) ‐ Land use planing and domestic waste water treatment are the solution • Planning approach should follow Spatial layer model – comprising ‐ Citarum roadmap financing plan by the National Planning Agency base layer, network layer, occupation layer and also combining ‐ Mahakam watershed DPSIR ‐ Rural areas; forest land; important for agriculture, fishery, biodiversity • Developed framework for assessment of deltas, compared 10 deltas ‐ Pressures – pollution from coal mine, deforestation, flood, drought in the world. ‐ Need landuse planning and pollution control and treatment • Example of flood risk management using the spatial layer model
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Presentation on Indonesian Rivers Presentation on Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 • Case of Unesco World Heritage ‐ Cultural Landscape of Bali Province: the Subak • Dynamic and active delta System as a Manifestation of the Tri Hita Karana Philosophy • Natural disasters‐ ‐ Community participation in ‐ Flood, river erosion, cyclone, tidal surge, drought, salinity sustainable water use and management intrusion water quality monitoring afforestation • Major issues M. Fida A. Khan ‐ Integrated Land Use Other issues in Indonesia ‐ Urban Water Management ‐ water quantity is not a big issue yet ‐ River Management ‐ water use conflicts among provinces ‐ Disaster Preparedness and Management ‐ Innovative Water Infrastructure and Management ‐ Climate Change Impact and Adaptation ‐ Governance and Strengthening of Institutions and Stakeholders at all Levels
Presentation on Bangladesh Delta Plan 2100 Presentation on Ayeyarwady Delta
• Future challenges • Potentials in Ayeyarwady Delta Area ‐ Ensure food security - Agricultural products ‐ Improve safety & living conditions - Prawn farming and other fish farming ‐ Becoming middle income country by 2021 - Navigation and Port facilities - Mangrove resources ‐ Climate related disasters - Tourism • Current planning approach –short term plan Win Hlaing • Challenges • Delta Plan 2100 - Natural hazards like Cyclones ‐ Long term vision/ strategic plan/ dynamic planning approach - Mangrove forest protection ‐ overarching umbrella plan guiding sectoral development in integrated manner • Involvement of local government in water management is ‐ to be implemented through short, medium and long term projects poor ‐ to be prepared by 2014. • Integrated mangrove rehabilitation and management through community participation projects in the area should enhance • More research on CC impacts in Ayeyarwady delta is needed
Presentation on Rhine –Meuse Delta Presentation on Rhine –Meuse Delta
• Rhine‐Meuse delta plain area , urbanized, flood • Current planning focus ‐ Committee on Sustainable Coastal Development protected by dykes and coastal defences ‐ 5 key decisions are to be made by 2015 for the delta on • Drivers of change ‐ safety standards and program ‐ Demographic trends, Economic developments, ‐ spatial adaptation Marcel Marchand ‐ Freshwater strategy Technological developments, Climate change ‐ Meuse – Rhine Estuary •Key issues ‐ LkLake Ijssel Vulnerability to flooding, Freshwater shortage, • Main strengths and weaknesses in planning Biodiversity Strenghts: •Main measures already taken ‐ Knowledge basis ‐ Active civil society ‐ Waterschappen (waterboards) ‐ Delta Law ‐ Flood protection infrastructure ‐ Sand nourishment Weaknesses ‐ Room for the river ‐ Water management and spatial planning not well integrated yet ‐ Long procedures create uncertainty among local people ‐ (Too?) many administrative layers
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Great diner with delicious Vietnamese food at INDOCHINE Restaurant……….
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Delta planning approaches by Wim Douven Training Workshop on Challenges and Approaches in River Delta Planning • Historical perspectives on delta development in the Sharing experiences from SE Asian Deltas and the Rhine‐Meuse Delta Netherlands Ho Chi Minh City, 22‐26 Oct 2012 • Phase 1: Small scale initiatives dominant • Phase 2: National government came in, up‐scaling of delta works to large scale • Phase 3: Shift in values and perceptions: Nature and ecology, Day 2 recap ‐ Delta Planning Approaches role of government, measures to be taken (structural measures being questioned), climate change issues on top. Two key characteristics: (1) Flood protection as 1st priority, (2) complex adaptive system approach to delta analysis and management.
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Delta planning approaches Delta planning approaches by Wim Douven by Wim Douven • Planning work has been and is changing Addressing complexity in planning •Local planning/work government mixed • Learning by doing/trial and error approach (different levels with coordinating roles • Goals should be made clear 1 WHO?) • Data enrichment and refinement • Consideration of trade‐offs and different expectations of stakeholders •Sectoral ()(water) integrated, multi‐sectoral planning A suggestion 2 • Comprehensive and systemic understanding of the whole system, DPISIR is a good tool • Clear identification of internal and external factors •Blue‐print (exact copies) a more adaptive • Strategic long‐term plan to provide guidance and link detailed plans and flexible planning approach allowed by to strategies general guiding frameworks 3 • Monitoring and evaluation
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Delta planning approaches Delta planning approaches by Wim Douven by Wim Douven
• Discrepancy between our expectations/vision in the plan and Addressing uncertainties in planning reality: Human dimensions are important (less attention compared to technicalities) and need proper treatment. • Scenarios planning: Bracketing future: possible • Multiple solutions to one problem, multiple pathways to one goal. Realize that there are more than one possible future and more than futures to capture uncertainties one ‘good’ equilibrium. • Robust and flex ible strategies: What will work • ThTechno log ies and environment can be well hdldhandled, but human dimension does matter: Different between needs and what they in any case? Something for Thursday want, how can we understand human behavior • Understand human behavior: Game theory, behavioral models • Adaptive management: adjustment on the • Actors and brake‐through key person: political windows way using feedbacks, new data and evaluation • Financial choices and possibilities
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Bio-physical and socio-economic scenarios for long- Bio-physical and socio-economic scenarios for long- term delta plans term delta plans by Fulco Ludwig by Fulco Ludwig
• Overview of deltas under pressure: Multiple Key water related issues in urbanized deltas challenges: sea‐level rise, hydrological changes • Too much water: Flood risk increases due to both climate (mean and extreme values), storms and cyclones, change and land‐use change and development. etc • Too little water: Mainly due to reduced run‐off and • Scenario approach as a tool to capture system’s development futures, not prediction nor projections but to • Too dirty water: pollution and salinity identify and analyze uncertainties: Both climate related and socio‐economic development related uncertainties. • There is no probabilities linked to different scenarios
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Bio-physical and socio-economic scenarios for long- Bio-physical and socio-economic scenarios for long- term delta plans term delta plans by Fulco Ludwig by Fulco Ludwig
• Bio‐physical features: Water availability and • Bio‐physical features: Modeling framework stress, water quality mainly salinization, hazards mainly flood and extreme rain events • Socio‐economics: Economic growth, population growth, etc.
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Bio-physical and socio-economic scenarios for long- Bio-physical and socio-economic scenarios for long- term delta plans term delta plans by Fulco Ludwig by Fulco Ludwig
Issues • Socio‐economic scenarios • Sea‐level rise projection: A complex issue in itself! How the Dutch delta committee take this uncertainties? • Stronger attention to socio‐economic development in • VIC hydrological simulation for Ganges basin and Mekong basin and future delta scenarios Rhine basin • How to structure socio‐economic development into • Upstream development is of special attention. It is rather early to blame all to climate change scenarios? • Findings so far: • 02 main dimensions: (1) Spatial development and (2) – Mean values do not change much, but variation changes significantly land‐use and economic structure, 04 extremes need to zoom in and pay attention to temporal variations and extreme values • Spatial elaboration and visualization using maps – Still a large range in run‐off between different scenarios but relatively clear overall trends: Less run‐off during dry season and more water • Describe key parameters/features for each scenarios during wet season • Input and feedback from stakeholders
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Long term socio economic scenarios Mekong Delta Adaptation in a nutshell Economic diversification / Land Use by Fulco Ludwig • Economic Wealth GHG emissions • Infrastructure and Technology Corridor industrialization Dual node industrialization • Institutions and Services • Information, Knowledge and Climate Change Skills • Equity 3 4 • Social Capital Exposure Sensitivity
Sppyatially evolving Sppyatially Potential Impacts Adaptive Capacity Coordinated
1 Vulnerability to 1 2 climate change
Food security Agro‐business specialization Adaptation
Agro‐based economy / Land Use
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Mekong delta plan presentation by Scenarios development exercise Martijn van de Groep
• 04 photos Vietnam‐Netherlands bilateral cooperation • MOU in 2010: cooperation in various topics • VN‐NL Strategies Partnership Arrangement (SPA) on climate change adaptation and water management: VN ownership and NL facilities and advise • Concrete examples: Mekong delta plan, Hochiminh moving towards the see plan, Water business forum, etc • MKD approach: Long‐term vision and back‐casting; • Integration is a key issue
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Mekong delta plan presentation by Martijn van de Groep
Organizational set‐up of the Mekong delta plan project: • Linkages to highest political level (national steering committee on climate change adaptation) • Vietnamese ownership, Dutch advise • 04 reference groups • Operational office
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Challenges and Approaches in River Delta Planning Delta Themes 22‐26 October 2012, HochiminhCity, Vietnam ‐ Upstream delta Day 5: Synergizing and ‐ Urban Conclusions Ngan Le ‐ Coastal delta
http://www.muskokawaterweb.ca/waterfront‐ living/healthy‐shorelines/83‐water‐101/watersheds
Upstream Urban Coastal Vision to 2050 Sustainable economic 1: To reduce unplanned urbanization Climate resilient and Delta Themes development of the Delta by 2: To ensure safe & adequate water sustainable development of 2050 supply coastal delta Analyse 3 future delta water issues 3: To reduce the number of flood 1. Identify each of the four climate and economic Issues ‐ Flooding in upstream ‐ Water supply (quantity) ‐ Salinity intrusion & development scenarios ‐ Water Quality ‐ Water pollution (quality) freshwater scarcity 2. Describe these key issues in term of Drivers, Pressure, ‐ Degradation of Biodiversity ‐ Flood ‐ Land erosion & State, Impact and Response (DPSIR) sedimentation Make differences and similarities between deltas ‐ Tidal flood explicit. Compare issues of each deltas Identify and evaluate solution strategies Scenarios Best: CC moderate –SE Best: CC moderate –SE growth high 4 scenarios to address future issues growth hig h WtWorst: CC fftast – SE growth low Worst: CC fast –SE growth Compare factors in scenario of each 1. Describe a clear long term aims, goals low deltas 2. Identify for each scenario at least two solution strategies related to “land and water use”. Strategies 1. Hard measures 1. Decentralization of industrial area to 1. Adaptive strategies ‐ Concept behind strategy 2. Soft measures outside the city 2. Preventive strategies ‐ Type of measures included 3. Combine Hard and Soft 2. Introduce water sensitive land use Apply for each scenario 3. Evaluate each solution strategy Separate strategy for each planning ‐ Effectiveness countries Strategy of the current problems ‐ Economic effects ‐ Slide‐effects Evaluation Hard: Low (next slide) (next slide) ‐ Flexibility Soft: High Combine H+S: Medium ‐ Acceptance
Urban: give a both side for each strategy Coastal: Bias on Adaptive Upstream Delta Criteria Decentralizati Introduce on of water Adaptive Preventiv industrial sensitive land strategy e strategy area use planning Effectiveness Effectiveness ++ ++ ‐ + Economic +/‐ –(short term) Economic effect / + (long efficiency (cost + ‐ term) versus benefit) Indonesia Side effect • Vulnerability • Livability ++ ↓ + • Urban heat Side effect • Food control + + ‐ security – • Human Acceptance Vietnam • Political health + + ‐ • control – Urban agri. Flexibility + + ‐ Flexibility ++ – Robustness Acceptance +/‐ +/‐ + ‐ Bangladesh
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Upstream Delta Urban: The DPSIR framework (European environmental agency, 2004)
• Good: Provided concrete strategies for each delta, each scenario • Other Issues: Erosion, Landslide, Impacts of dam reservoirs, Water management for agriculture • The urban and costal deltas need to concern or have responsibilities to the upstream delta. • Should use carefully the concrete number/ percentage in the scenarios
Urban Coastal Delta
Issues Mekong, VN Telang, Ayeravadi, Ganges‐ • Good: Considered the relationship between the responses and Indonesia Myanmar Brahm., BD the drivers, pressures, etc. Salinity HHHH • Other Issues: Increasing frequencies of other hazards, labours’ intrusion & accommodation freshwater • Strategies solve the current problems. Still need strategies for scarcity the future. Land erosion & MMMM • Need to create the linkages between Drivers and Issues, sedimentation Scenarios and strategies
Loss of MLLL biodiversity
Tidal flood M M H H
Coastal Delta Thank you!
• Good: Considered level of issues for each delta and decided which are the three main issues in general • Other Issues: other causes of flood (not only tide), wetland system and rain behaviours, urbanization in coastal delta • Bias on adaptive strategies. Need to combine 2 strategies for each scenario and consider the side‐effects of each strategy in each scenario • Need to be more concrete/ detailed in the strategies and assessment
2 Annex 7. Workshop evaluation
Training Workshop Challenges and Approaches in River Delta Planning Sharing experiences from SE Asian Delta’s and the Rhine-Meuse Delta
22-26 October 2012
The Centre of Water Management and Climate Change (WACC) at Vietnam National University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Objectives
Be exposed to the latest thinking of delta planning, its multiple dimensions, placed in a development context. Become familiar with approaches how to address these dimensions - also considering uncertainty – and (institutional) conditions for implementation. Learn from examples and experiences of approaches of delta planning from the delta’s represented. Provide a Forum for knowledge networking between participants, and between participants and resources persons of the institutes involved.
Note: Please tick appropriate box. Please do not fill in an answer if you don't know or don't have an opinion!!
1. THE COURSE IN GENERAL
Result (1 Strongly disagree; 5 Strongly agree)
Do you think the training enabled you to achieve learning objectives as 4.64 / 33 stated above
The total available time is reasonable or the amount of material to be 4.24 / 33 studied The balance between theory and practice (exercises/assignments) is 4.30 / 33 right The training is well supported by teaching tools, facilities & materials, 4.33 / 33 such as lecture notes, handouts, etc.
The training provided a useful contribution to the specific requirements 4.24 / 33 of my job
The training provided a useful contribution to my professional 4.48 / 33 development
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Comments on the course:
2: I would like to see more practical example on else studies. Also I would like to see the field trip designed changed to better capture some practical learning, maybe a dam site etc. 3: Good 4: It will be better giving more time scale 5: It would have been better if some modules are incorporated on practical work (like how to produce a map or relevant software package) within the schedule of the workshop. 6: The course has provided a good overview for the approach to be taken in developing a delta planning with insight mostly from the technical perspectives. 8: It is a nice course in which people from different countries/delta's share and learn each others about planning approach 10: Very much relevant issues were discussed. Got the opportunity to be exposed to new ideas. 14: The workshop is very well organized. Content of the workshop is reasonable. Lecturers are excellent. 15: Very relevant to the objectives and friendly atmosphere. 17: Overall the course is good and nicely organized. The field trip could be more informative showing examples a livelihood adaptation in Delta - agriculture, chatting in community; some socio- economic aspects should be added. 18: My most useful courses so far! This training course is very well designed and well implemented. Excellent presentation and lively discussion with right amount of time for practice. Host institute is very helpful and great facilitation. 19: The course was pretty good and I learned a lot, not only from the presentations and discussions but also from the conversations with experts from different research aspects/different countries. 20: Very good, very fruitful. We all share the experience of the several Delta among. The participant in the effective way. 21: It is a very nice course. The participants are very active. A lot of discussion has carries out. 22: Very well organized and relevant. 23: This course is also helpful for my current job. Hence I strongly support and hope will happen in the near future. 24: It should be organized frequently. 25: It is very helpful for me to add new knowledge that I lack of but I need. Thank you very much. 26: Provide additional section: round-table negotiation between groups of upstream delta, urban delta and coastal delta. 27: Try to deliver handouts before presentation so it's much useful to track the trainers. 29: For the time being the course was too much important and interesting. It will enable all the participants to think about own delta problem in an integrated way. After the training I think I can contribute a lot in my delta planning. 30: The course is very much helpful, informative, contain latest thinking for the river delta planning and it is very much appropriate for my country as well as for my professional development. 31: The topic is a bit broad. It is not easy to digest all material provided. 32: The course is very good, especially for participants which are working on related fields. But the total available time should be considered in order to give more detail lectures. 33: the course provides various practical tools that enhance my experiences of different delta situations. It is very helpful for my critical thinking to apply in my local situation in CK, especially since I am working in REDD+/ climate change issues. That has direct relation with upstream delta.
Working relations Result (1 difficult; 5 stimulating)
The working relations with the trainers 4.64 / 33 has been: The working relations between 4.27 / 33 participants has been:
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Comments on the lecturers:
3: Informative 4: Lecturers is excellent from profession 5: On the very first day, there should be a general lecture since the participants are from different backgrounds. Hence this general lecture may be useful for getting insight of delta planning. 6: Lecturers has been very resourceful, but need more to be well informed about each country's condition, socio. economic situation etc. 7: Open-minded 8: The substances of the lecturers are enough to provide useful information to the participants however in some sessions need more time to be explained. 10: The lecturers were well prepared. They designed the course nicely & executed nicely. They motivated us highly to perform the given tasks. They shared relevant information. 11: All lecturers are very sportive, good presentations. 14: All lecturers are knowledgeable and experienced well prepared presentations and tasks. 15: Friendly 17: The lecturers were good and nicely presented different case studies/examples. 18: Excellent experts who provided state-of-the-art knowledge and insightful experience for the participants. all lecturers are very helpful and inspiring. 19: Participants need to keep in touch after the workshop. 20: The lecturers are very good. 21: Very good lecturers. More knowledge has been introduced to the participants. 22: Very well prepared & organized. Good expertise. 25: They are great and enthusiastic. 26: Cooperative, enthusiastic 29: The resource personnel/facilitators were excellent in terms of having vast knowledge and experience in the practical field. I learned lot of practical examples from them and it will enhance my experience and help to develop my professional carrier as well. 30: Nice, excellent and informative. 32: All of the lecturers gave clear presentation. 33: the lecturers are very knowledgeable, supportive and friendly.
2. ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS
A. What did you like the most about this training?
1: -The approaches of delta planning: DPSIR, scenario -Various experiences from our neighboring countries & experts from Netherland 2: -The friendly attitude of the trainers -The intensive interaction -The friendly learning environment. 3: Sharing of information 4: I like very much about group works 5: The thematic proposal on different scenario 6: The relevancy of the topic of discussion with the real condition 7: Get a lot of vital knowledge. Have a general viewpoint about problems of each delta 8: Interactive discussion, sharing, and new networking/ friends in delta planning. 9: Having a lot of knowledge by sharing the information from different delta's. 10: Group works 11: Working atmosphere, the interaction between lecturers and participants, and field trip. 12: - Approaches and frame work from the planning - Participants background. 13: Good organization (theory + practice + field trip) 14: - Approaches to delta planning - Q & A - Visit tour 15: Opportunity to exchange knowledge & experiences. 16: I like most the atmosphere of the training workshop. It was really cooperative and a sharing environment.
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17: Group work for sharing knowledge from different types of deltas. 18: The course is very well designed for specific topic of planning in emerging deltas. 19: Very active and productive discussions after each presentation. 20: The interactive among the participants. The interactive between the lectures and the participant. 21: The training method 22: Enabling participants to develop different scenarios of delta development issues from which participants can make plans and strategies. 23: - Addressing the challenge in Delta planning, especially in different deltas. - Approaching the methods to solve the serious problems. 24: The cooperation between participants is good. 25: The people from several countries and disciplines share their knowledge, opinions and enjoy together. Also the field trip to Mekong Delta was great. 26: Characteristics and issues of delta planning. 27: - Practical information, good approach for delta planning, good organization, re-cap. 28: Knowledge's related to Delta planning and analysis generally on strategies and measures. 29: The approaches of this training were interesting to me. Because at first all of the facilitators five us sound knowledge about the theory and they tried to combine theory with examples. 30: Decorative and nicely presented which is easy to catch? 31: Working together 32: I like strongly about study comparative share on experience coming from other countries. 33: The lecturers and participants are coming from various expertise's and situations that enhance my knowledge and understanding of different scenarios & future possible development. This mix of participants is very helpful to develop network & common understanding among different countries.
B. What did you like the least about this training?
1: Travelling about 1 and 1/2 hours 2: The field visit. It was very nice but learning points were limited. However the guide did give us some good information. 3: Nothing 5: The sequence of lecturers was sometimes not in proper order. 6: Lack of guidance in the discussion/ group work among the participant in order to have meaningful/fruitful discussion 9: The field trip 12: Field study, participants location 13: Time is quite hard 15: Almost nothing 16: I actually like to listen more about human interaction in problems arising among deltas and how the people involved in planning, addressing the issues and solve them. Adaptive capacities of the most vulnerable group & people. I hope to meet it again in other workshop. 18: It would be perfect to have more information on the DIPSIR model. 19: Location of the VNU is too far from the city's centre. It took a long time (1 hr) for transportation. 20: The hotel accommodation 23: The transportation. It takes time to go to the workshop place. 24: It's better if the working time of workshop could be shorter. It should finish at 4 pm instead of 5 pm. 25: The location is quite far from my living area, but after all it is ok. 26: Moving 25km everyday 29: The integration of different approaches as well as different methods to analyze delta problems. 30: The duration and length of this training should be increased. 32: The least I like that the questions came from participants which not related to the topic.
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C. What did you find most difficult?
3: Language barrier 4: Difficult for me is a little bit on professional 5: The English pronunciation of the Vietnamese and Indonesian participant. 6: Climate change scenario 7: There is a difficulty because of different ideas. It is not easy to work in international group (May be training time is short). 8: There are several terms to be understood, but fortunately it can be handled during the workshop. 10: Too long sessions 11: How to apply new approaches to the real planning tasks for the particular area. 12: New approaches and frameworks. Language pronunciation. 14: A comprehensive planning for complicated delta. 16: Since I don't have much knowledge in water resource planning, so I found difficulty in understanding some specific concepts and professional knowledge. 18: I did not find any topic/issue that is too difficult. 19: Combine issues of different deltas and figure out solutions for general problems. 22: To be able to link different issues to solving problems of deltas. 25: My background is computer science, so there were some points I could not follow, especially the specific terminology in environmental science. 26: Myself have few experience about delta. Therefore it's hard to contribute to work group. 27: How to organize the steering committee and operational team to finish the delta plan successfully. 29:Sometimes I found that integration of different options for policy making is a tough job. 30: To catch the things from Vietnam and Indonesian participants. 31: How to implement some new concepts (e.g. adaptive management, uncertainty analysis). 32: The most difficult is to formulate the solution to overcome the problem.
D. Was there anything you found missing in this training which you believe should have been included?
2: A documentary film maybe. 3: More example 5: Some quantitative measurement tool 6: Economic & social perspectives in identifying the issues in developing a delta plan. 7: The way for working in group. There are a lot of individual ideas. 12: -Social factors. We should put some presentation which focus on social issues. -Participants from Mekong Delta ( experts, officers, NGO's) 14: A sample of good planning for a delta in developing country. 15: Experiences sharing in reality planning work. 16: It was included in B (what did you like the least about this training?) 17: The course should include one lecture basics of planning process, strategy and policy development. 18: Given the time availability, I think nothing should be added. 20: The case of Delta Mekong hasn't really present in the training. 23: I think that this teaching workshop focus on the theory. The technical tools to solve the problems in planning deltas should be involved. 25: The use of information system or computing system in supporting the planning process. 26: Enough for certain time. 30: If possible to include some modeling like flood modeling, atmospheric modeling. 31: Providing some tools (packages)for senior development, mapping, data collection. 32: The result of the course which has formulated as a principal response is very important. 33: There is no specific overview on upstream delta. The lecturers were about urban & coastal area. In Vietnam and Bangladesh: upstream issue is related strongly with transboundary among countries. In Indonesia is about deforestation & loss bioversity. These are important to address.
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E. Any other comments or suggestions to improve the training
6: -Each specific country's perspective/problem in developing. (political condition, socio.economic condition etc.) -Better field trip in order to give a better idea/insight for the participant about delta planning. Perhaps interaction with the related government agency? 7: Need more time for group discussion. 8: The location of training and the place for staying should be located closer, considering time management. In some sessions need more time. 12: -To provide material, folder including all presentations instead of one by one from day by day - Maybe provide small bag/folder to keep documents 14: A strict schedule should be proposed 18: One or two talks/lecturers from local experts would be very helpful for the participants. 20: The field trip/excursion has not reflected the challenge and solution of the Delta. We haven't see the part of the job of the Delta planning progress. 23: About the venue, I think we should not set up the class far from the hotel because it takes time. 25: Should the lecturers send their presentation slides to the participants before their speeches? 26: Detail methodology of delta/urban planning 33: The distance between hotel & venue is considerable far. I like hotel locations which are close to market and city life. I would suggest to reduce study time to 16:30 pm to allow enough time get back to hotel and rest. It was too heavy when we finished between 17:15 to 17:30 pm.
3. OVERALL ASSESSMENT
Result (1 Not good; 5 Very good)
Please mark your overall assessment of 4.64 / 33 the quality of this training
4. LOGISTICS
Result (1 Poor; 5 Excellent)
The internal organization and logistical 4.58 / 33 support has been: The accommodation has been: 4.56 / 25
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Comments: 3: Very good 5: I'll be looking forward to have more opportunities on having experience and cooperative activities from Delta Alliance. 6: Thanks for the nice & delicious food 8: Thank you for arranging whole programs and activities in the workshop. It is really nice to be involved in the program/workshop. Looking forward for any other workshops related to delta planning. 10: The Vietnamese colleagues were very helpful. In my opinion, workshop is a success. 13: Thanks organization committee for organizing an useful training course! Hopefully this course will be keep working and developing toward other deltas. 18: Great facilitation & support from WACC. 20: I am a researcher. I work for Indonesian Institute of Sciences. My current project is Integrated Spatial Planning of Jakarta Coastal Watershed as an Urban area and Nahakam watershed as Forest area. 25: I just want to say thank you very much to the logistical team. 30: I want to participate again that would be held next year in Vietnam for the development of my carrier as well as for my country. 33: -Well organized logistics and accommodations. -I love all the meals that served during lunch and dinner. -Trip to Mekong is memorable to see Vietnamese life.
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