and Forecasting

Joe DelliCarpini Science and Operations Officer, NOAA/ /Norton, MA [email protected]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Boston/Norton, MA NERACOOS Annual Meeting NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION Coastal

• Two types – Tropical (tropical storms, hurricanes) – Extratropical Cyclones (nor’easters) • Coastal Flooding Impacts – Due to water level ( surge + ) and waves

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Boston/Norton, MA NERACOOS Annual Meeting NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION Threat to Life • Inexperienced population – Last destructive nor’easter was December 1992 • Not long after the destructive 1991 “Perfect Storm” – Last land falling hurricane was Bob in August 1991 – Last land falling major hurricane was Carol in 1954 • Large number of rescues during January, 2018 Blizzard

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Boston/Norton, MA NERACOOS Annual Meeting NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION Threat to Property

• Move what can be moved (up or out) • Secure what can’t be moved

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Boston/Norton, MA NERACOOS Annual Meeting NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION Threat to Infrastructure

• Potential impacts, especially in major urban areas – Transportation, Communications, Energy – Sandy’s impact on New York City is a wake up call! • Frequent salt water inundation from “minor” events can damage shoreline roads

MV Times Boston Globe

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Boston/Norton, MA NERACOOS Annual Meeting NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION Coastal Flooding: Definition

• Storm Tide = Astronomical Tide + Storm Surge • Total Water Level = Storm Tide + Wave Action • Contributions of Waves: • Add to water level behind barrier beach via overwash • Damage to structures via wave battery • Docks, sea walls, homes, etc. • Scour and transport beach sand via erosion

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Boston/Norton, MA NERACOOS Annual Meeting NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION Assessing Coastal Flood Impacts: The Basics • Astronomical tide level • Wave fetch, duration, amplitude and period • Wind direction over fetch area • Local wind direction along coast • Direction of wave trains • Atmospheric pressure

For tropical cyclones, also consider: • Intensity Category • Size • Radius of max winds • Angle of wave train to shoreline • Storm motion

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Boston/Norton, MA NERACOOS Annual Meeting NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION Forecast Initiatives • Studies of past events • Graphical Total Water Level forecasts • Impact tied to storm tide and wave height • Wave run-up test locations established • Partnered with Coastal Zone Management (CZM) to promote reporting software • Developed Coastal Hazards web portal

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Boston/Norton, MA NERACOOS Annual Meeting NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION Recent Forecast Improvements

• Studies of past events to improve forecaster awareness and establish location-specific impacts • Daily Total Water Level forecasts • Wave Run-Up forecasts • Coastal Hazards web portal https://www.weather.gov/box/coastal

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Boston/Norton, MA NERACOOS Annual Meeting NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION Wave Run-Up Forecasts

Help convey forecast wave impacts • Contribute a significant amount to Total Water Level during storms • Ultimate cause of most structure damage/erosion • Resulting overwash can add 1 to 2 feet (sometimes even more) to inundation depth behind barrier beaches

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Boston/Norton, MA NERACOOS Annual Meeting NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION Return on Investment • Regional collaboration project – $25K cost over 5 years – Evaluated the operational suitability and transfer of USGS research into experimental products for NWS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Boston/Norton, MA NERACOOS Annual Meeting NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION Future Research and Development

• Improve visualization – Collaboration with NOAA Office of Coastal Management, USGS, and Center for Coastal Studies – Ability to view real-time Total Water Level forecasts – Incorporation of Wave Run-Up • Integrate LIDAR mapping along MA/RI coastline • Expand wave-run up forecasts along the East Coast over the next 1 to 2 years – Maine, North Carolina, South Carolina

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Boston/Norton, MA NERACOOS Annual Meeting NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION