30.10.2018-05.11.2018 • No: 184 7

KAZAKHSTAN AND : THE ISSUE OF TRANSBOUNDARY RIVERS During the June 2017 visit of Chinese Pres- River and its tributaries are used for indus- transboundary rivers, and as a ident Xi Jinping to Kazakhstan and his re- trial needs, housing and communal services, party to both conventions can use these plat- ciprocal June 2018 visit to China, President fishery, agriculture, irrigation, hydropower forms to engage with China in areas that are of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev stated production, and navigation. There are three directly related to transboundary water man- that there were no unresolved issues be- large reservoirs on the Ertis – agement. tween the two countries. Indeed, at the de- (5,490 km2), Shulba (255 km2) and Oske- It should be noted that Kazakhstan and claratory level, bilateral cooperation be- men (37 km2). The Ile River runs into Lake China made the first important step in water tween Kazakhstan and China has developed Balkhash, Kazakhstan’s second largest wa- management cooperation in 2001 when they on a mutually beneficial basis and achieved terbody after the Caspian Sea. About one- established a joint commission on the use the strategic partnership level, but it is obvi- sixth of the country’s population live in the and protection of transboundary rivers. The ous that the two countries have differing Ile-Balkhash basin, and one-fifth of Ka- commission became possible due to the cre- views on certain cross-border issues. One of zakhstan’s industrial enterprises operate ation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organi- such issues is the legal status and use of there. The Qapshagai reservoir holding 21.8 zation just a few months earlier and the re- transboundary rivers, discussions on which km3 of water is located on the Ile, and 90% sulting positive atmosphere among its mem- started between Beijing and Astana in 1998. of Ile water is used for irrigation. bers. Although the scope of the commis- Since then, not only Kazakh government of- Astana’s main concern is that at current sion’s activities remains narrow, focusing ficials, but also general public have become rates of water use by China the transbound- only on monitoring and research, this can concerned with China’s regional hydro pol- ary river basins in Kazakhstan will signifi- certainly be considered as an unprecedented icy and its potential negative consequences cantly decrease leading to economic losses step on China’s part. As a result of activities for Kazakhstan. Currently, the two main and environmental degradation. For exam- of the commission and its working groups, problematic topics between Kazakhstan and ple, electricity generation at the Ertis-based Kazakhstan and China concluded several in- China are the “rational and equitable” distri- hydro power plants may decrease by 25% by tergovernmental and interdepartmental doc- bution of water and the prevention of water 2030, while the Bukhtarma and Shulba res- uments, the most important of which was the pollution. ervoirs, as well as Lake Zaisan, may par- 2001 agreement on cooperation in the use Along with a 1700-km long border, Kazakh- tially desiccate. However, Kazakhstan, lo- and protection of transboundary rivers. stan and China share 23 transboundary riv- cated downstream from both rivers, finds it- In subsequent years, however, China aban- ers, including the largest ones – Ertis and Ile, self in a disadvantageous position in compli- doned the agreed position on the issue of both of which are vital for Kazakhstan. cated water management negotiations with transboundary rivers. In 2007, in view of the Since 1999, Beijing has been implementing China. It is noteworthy that Beijing insists emerging environmental problems, Kazakh- the “Develop the West” strategy, which has on taking into account the population sizes stan offered China a preferential 10-year led to a steady expansion of the agricultural, of the transboundary river regions when dis- contract for the supply of food in exchange industrial, infrastructural, and energy sec- cussing water sharing arrangements, but this for an increase in the river flow to Balkhash, tors in the Uygur Autonomous Re- approach is not acceptable for Kazakhstan, but Beijing rejected the deal. It was only in gion (XUAR). As Xinjiang is mostly a de- whose population in the adjacent areas is 2011 that the two countries started a new sert semi-desert area, its development is much smaller compared to that of the phase of joint water management when they tightly dependent on the availability of wa- XUAR. Besides, the Chinese side justifies negotiated the agreement on the protection ter, and Chinese authorities have been ex- its extensive construction of water reser- of transboundary water quality. In addition, tensively using Ertis and Ile resources for voirs by the fact that during the Soviet pe- in April 2011, China and Kazakhstan offi- this purpose. Moreover, due to the active re- riod Kazakhstan already made an extensive cially launched the long-awaited joint drain- settlement of the population from mainland use of the transboundary rivers, having built age project on the Khorgos River, a 150-km China to the XUAR, the province popula- the large reservoirs and hydropower sta- Ile tributary flowing along the Kazakh-Chi- tion increased to 22 million by 2010, which tions. nese border. The project’s goal is to improve significantly increased Xinjiang’s water Since the beginning of its dam construction irrigation, ensure safe water supply of the needs. On the Ertis, China constructed two and river reorganization activities along the ecosystem and reduce potential flood risks, channels by 2008 – Black Ertis-Karamay transboundary watercourses in the 1990s, especially for the Khorgos Eastern Gate and Ertis-Urumqi. The water flow through China has repeatedly sought to reconcile its Special Economic Zone and the Khorgos In- these waterways amount to 6.3 km³ per year, hydro policy with the broader political goals ternational Center of Boundary Coopera- which is 2.5 times higher than the limit con- and objectives towards its neighbors, trying tion. When the project is fully completed, sidered safe for the exploitation of trans- to avoid water disputes through various each side should receive 50% of the diverted boundary water resources. On the Ile, China forms of ad hoc cooperation. However, in water. While water sharing on border rivers constructed 13 reservoirs and 59 hydro- managing transboundary water resources, is different from the situation with trans- power plants. According to Kazakhstan’s China acts in accordance with the principle boundary rivers, the fact that this project estimates, the Chinese side annually diverts of territorial sovereignty, according to was eventually launched shows that pro- about 15 km³ of Ile water, and this number which it has the right to use as much water gress on bilateral water issues between Ka- is constantly growing. In addition to the de- as necessary if its source is on its territory. zakhstan and China is achievable. creasing volume of incoming water, there When negotiating on water resources, Bei- In their joint statement issued in June 2017, are also many complaints about poor water Nazarbayev and Xi stated that they would quality as waste water discharges from the jing prefers to use the bilateral format, prac- growing industrial capacity of Xinjiang tically ignoring the norms of international make efforts to complete the planned water harm both Ertis and Ile rivers. law. China refuses to sign the 1992 Conven- allocation technical work on transboundary Kazakhstan is concerned with China’s ex- tion on the Protection and Use of Trans- rivers as soon as possible. The two sides also cessive water use because the life of Central boundary Watercourses and International declared that in the shortest possible time and Eastern Kazakhstan, which already ex- Lakes, which determines the right of each they would complete the assessment of wa- periences a water shortage, directly depends state to an equitable share in the use of trans- ter resources of the Ertis, Ile, Emil and other on the Ertis and Ile rivers. More than 2.5 boundary waters and provides for environ- major Kazakh-Chinese transboundary riv- million people live in the Ertis watershed in mental obligations of its participants, as well ers, and intend to intensify work on a draft Kazakhstan, and the river also feeds the Er- as the 1997 Convention on the Law of the agreement on water sharing. Thus, it appears tis-Karagandy Canal, which is the main Non-Navigational Uses of International that in the near future building joint trans- source of water for Astana and Karagandy. Watercourses. The country, though, joined boundary water management policy with Out of 25 km3 of Ertis water reaching Ka- the Convention on Biological Diversity and China in accordance with international law zakhstan, the country only consumes 2% for the Ramsar Convention on Wetlands, both will be the primary goal of Kazakh diplo- canal needs. Water resources of the Ertis of which protect ecosystems, including macy. Written by Azhar Serikkaliyeva Eurasian Research Institute, Kazakhstan

Politics, Foreign Affairs, and Security Economy, Finance, and Energy Society and Culture

 During his official visit to Kazakhstan,  According to India’s Ministry of Com-  Turkey celebrated the 95th anniversary Russian Prime Minister Dmitry merce and Industry, India, Iran and Rus- of the Turkish Republic, with ceremo- Medvedev met with President of Ka- sia plan to launch a new international nies held across the country and around zakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev, as well North-South multimodal transport cor- the world. In Ankara, President Erdogan as his Kazakh counterpart Bakhytzhan ridor, which may become an alternative laid a wreath at Anitkabir, the mauso- Sagintayev. The parties positively eval- to the Suez Canal. The 7,200-km long leum of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. uated their strategic partnership and dis- route will allow cargo to be shipped  The Coordinating Committee on Hy- cussed the current state of bilateral rela- from India to the Iranian port of Bandar drometeorology and Pollution Monitor- tions and further prospects of coopera- Abbas, then delivered by road to Iran’s ing of the Caspian Sea held its regular tion within the framework of the EEU. Caspian port of Bandar Anzali, from session in Ashgabat. The participants  During the meeting of the Council of the where it will be sent to Russia’s Astra- discussed the results of the committee’s CIS Heads of Government in Astana, khan and transported to Europe by rail. work in 2017-2018, as well as the im- the parties discussed ways to expand  The governments of Ukraine and Mol- plementation of the intergovernmental their trade, economic, social and hu- dova plan to integrate their energy mar- program on the hydrometeorology of manitarian interaction. They also signed kets under the EU4Energy program. the Caspian Sea until 2023. a number of documents on cooperation Currently, both countries are engaged in  The delegation of the Kazakh Tourism in the fields of nuclear safety, space re- the reform and harmonization of their national company visited Switzerland to search, environmental protection, tax wholesale electricity markets. organize a road show presenting pro- jects of Kazakhstan’s National Tourism administration, innovations, etc.  Some Uzbek parliamentarians proposed Development Map. Kazakh Tourism  During the 7th Trilateral Meeting of For- to take measures against Ukraine in re- and Swiss Tourism signed a memoran- eign Ministers of Azerbaijan, Georgia taliation to the investigation into im- dum of cooperation, with the Swiss side and Turkey held in Istanbul, the parties ports of Uzbekistan-made cars initiated pledging to assist in the development of discussed the region’s major energy and by the Ukrainian authorities. One of the year-round tourism in national parks transportation projects, such as TANAP suggestions is to reduce imports of and mountain areas of Kazakhstan. and the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway. In Ukrainian goods and substitute them  According to the GSM Association, the Istanbul Declaration adopted at the with domestic or Russian goods. 80% of the CIS population are covered meeting, the ministers reaffirmed their  Kazakhstan entered the top-30 in the by mobile services, with penetration commitment to further strengthen mu- World Bank’s Doing Business ranking rates ranging from 60% in Turkmeni- tual cooperation in various fields. for the first time, improving from the stan and Uzbekistan to 89% in Russia. th th  President Nazarbayev signed the law 36 to 28 position. Among the post- At the end of 2017, there were 232 mil- ratifying the Kazakhstan-India memo- Soviet states, Kazakhstan is behind lion unique mobile subscribers in the randum of understanding on the joint Georgia (6), Lithuania (14), Estonia CIS, with Russia, Ukraine and Uzbeki- deployment of the Kazakh peacekeep- (16), Latvia (19), and Azerbaijan (25), stan together accounting for 80% of the ing contingent as part of the Indian bat- but is ahead of Russia (31), Belarus total subscriber base. talion in the UN Interim Force in Leba- (37), Armenia (41), Moldova (47), Kyr-  President Nazarbayev discussed the non. 120 Kazakh peacekeepers de- gyzstan (70), Ukraine (71), Uzbekistan prospects for developing civil aviation ployed there will be involved in patrol- (76), and Tajikistan (126). in Kazakhstan during his meeting with ling, organizing observation posts, and  Uzbekistan’s State Committee for Geol- Investment and Development Minister monitoring the ceasefire. ogy and Mineral Resources and Tur- Zhenis Kassymbek, Samruk-Kazyna  The Constitutional Court of Ingushetia key’s Tasyapi company signed a con- board member Richard Evans and Air ruled that the law approving the border tract on the development of two gold de- Astana CEO Peter Foster. Noting the agreement with neighboring Chechnya posits, Galabulak and Kushtepa, in the importance of improved availability of was unconstitutional. According to the Samarkand region. The Turkish side air transportation for the population, ruling, the land swap deal “has no legal plans to invest $5 million in the project Nazarbayev authorized the creation of a consequences” without holding a rele- during its first three-year phase. low-cost carrier based on Air Astana. vant referendum.  According to the Kazakh Ministry of In-  In the last five years, alcohol consump-  None of the candidates gained more vestment and Development, in 2019, tion in Kyrgyzstan has decreased from than half of votes at the first stage of the Kazakhstan will open additional 10 23.26 million liters in 2013 to 19.81 presidential election in Georgia. Two trade missions abroad – in the United million liters in 2017. According to the candidates, Salome Zurabishvili Arab Emirates, Russia, Uzbekistan, World Health Organization’s 2016 re- (38.6%) and Grigol Vashadze (37.7%), Kyrgyzstan, Belarus and others. They port, in terms of annual per capita con- who won most of the votes, will take will serve to support domestic exporters sumption, Kyrgyzstan (24 liters) ranked part in the second stage scheduled for as the country plans to increase the ex- second behind Georgia (27.9 liters) December 2, 2018. The election turnout port potential of the non-primary sector among the post-Soviet states. reached 46.7%. by 1.5 times over the next three years.  Speaking at the UN Security Council  During his visit to Turkey, Ukrainian  According to the Frank RG analytical briefing on the situation in Ukraine, the President Petro Poroshenko met with company, wealthy Russians who own at country’s Permanent Representative to his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip least $1 million keep only about 30% of the UN Volodymyr Yelchenko claimed Erdogan. The two leaders pledged to their capital in Russian banks. Out of to- that Russia moved 108,000 of its citi- maintain the strategic partnership, in- tal financial assets worth $455 billion, zens to Crimea for permanent residence. cluding by strengthening military tech- around $140 billion are held in Russia, Yelchenko called this a deliberate pol- nical cooperation and concluding a free while the remaining $315 billion are icy to change the demographic compo- trade agreement by the end of 2018. kept abroad. sition of the region.

Prepared by Dauren Aben and Kanat Makhanov