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FOMC Meeting Transcript, January 29-30, 2013

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FOMC Meeting Transcript, January 29-30, 2013 January 29–30, 2013 1 of 269 Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on January 29–30, 2013 A meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, January 29, 2013, at 2:00 p.m., and continued on Wednesday, January 30, 2013, at 9:00 a.m. Those present were the following: Ben Bernanke, Chairman William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman James Bullard Elizabeth Duke Charles L. Evans Esther L. George Jerome H. Powell Sarah Bloom Raskin Eric Rosengren Jeremy C. Stein Daniel K. Tarullo Janet L. Yellen Christine Cumming, Richard W. Fisher, Narayana Kocherlakota, Sandra Pianalto, and Charles I. Plosser, Alternate Members of the Federal Open Market Committee Jeffrey M. Lacker, Dennis P. Lockhart, and John C. Williams, Presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond, Atlanta, and San Francisco, respectively William B. English, Secretary and Economist Deborah J. Danker, Deputy Secretary Matthew M. Luecke, Assistant Secretary David W. Skidmore, Assistant Secretary Michelle A. Smith, Assistant Secretary Scott G. Alvarez, General Counsel Thomas C. Baxter, Deputy General Counsel Steven B. Kamin, Economist David W. Wilcox, Economist Thomas A. Connors, Troy Davig, Michael P. Leahy, James J. McAndrews, Stephen A. Meyer, David Reifschneider, Daniel G. Sullivan, Christopher J. Waller, and William Wascher, Associate Economists Simon Potter, Manager, System Open Market Account Nellie Liang,¹ Director, Office of Financial Stability Policy and Research, Board of Governors _______________________ ¹ Attended Tuesday’s session only. January 29–30, 2013 2 of 269 Jon W. Faust, Special Adviser to the Board, Office of Board Members, Board of Governors James A. Clouse and William Nelson, Deputy Directors, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors; Mark E. Van Der Weide, Deputy Director, Division of Banking Supervision and Regulation, Board of Governors Linda Robertson, Assistant to the Board, Office of Board Members, Board of Governors Joyce K. Zickler, Senior Adviser, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors Eric M. Engen, Thomas Laubach, and David E. Lebow, Associate Directors, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors Beth Anne Wilson, Deputy Associate Director, Division of International Finance, Board of Governors Karen M. Pence and Stacey Tevlin, Assistant Directors, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors Jeremy B. Rudd, Adviser, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors David H. Small, Project Manager, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors Andrew Figura, Group Manager, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors John C. Driscoll and Jennifer E. Roush, Senior Economists, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors; Ruth Judson, Senior Economist, Division of International Finance, Board of Governors Jonathan D. Rose, Economist, Division of Monetary Affairs, Board of Governors Sarah G. Green, First Vice President, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond David Altig, Jeff Fuhrer, Loretta J. Mester, Glenn D. Rudebusch, and Mark S. Sniderman, Executive Vice Presidents, Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Boston, Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Cleveland, respectively Ron Feldman and Lorie K. Logan, Senior Vice Presidents, Federal Reserve Banks of Minneapolis and New York, respectively Evan F. Koenig and Steven M. Friedman, Vice Presidents, Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and New York, respectively Matthew D. Raskin, Markets Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of New York January 29–30, 2013 3 of 269 Robert L. Hetzel, Senior Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond January 29–30, 2013 4 of 269 Transcript of the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting on January 29–30, 2013 January 29 Session CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Good afternoon, everybody. This being January, this is our annual organizational meeting. So let me be the first to welcome Presidents Bullard, Evans, George, and Rosengren to the Committee. The first item on the agenda is the election of Committee officers. I need a nomination for Chairman. MS. YELLEN. I would like to move the nomination of Ben Bernanke as Chairman. CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Thank you. Other nominations for discussion? [No response] Without objection. Thank you. Vice Chairman? MS. YELLEN. I would like to move the nomination of Bill Dudley as Vice Chairman. CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Other nominations or discussion? [No response] Without objection. Thank you very much. For agenda item 1.C, “Staff Officers,” the names were distributed with the agenda. Debbie, do you have them? MS. DANKER. Yes, I do. Secretary and Economist, Bill English; Deputy Secretary, Debbie Danker; Assistant Secretaries, Matt Luecke, Dave Skidmore, and Michelle Smith; General Counsel, Scott Alvarez; Deputy General Counsel, Tom Baxter; Assistant General Counsel, Rich Ashton; Economists, Steve Kamin and David Wilcox; Associate Economists from the Board, Tom Connors, Mike Leahy, Steve Meyer, Dave Reifschneider, and Bill Wascher; Associate Economists from the Banks, Jamie McAndrews, Geoff Tootell, Dan Sullivan, Chris Waller, and Troy Davig. CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Comments? [No response] Without objection. Thank you. Item 2 is “Selection of a Federal Reserve Bank to Execute Transactions for the System Open Market Account.” New York is, fortunately, willing to serve. Comments? [No response] January 29–30, 2013 5 of 269 Without objection. Thank you. Item 3 is the selection of a Manager for the SOMA. Simon Potter has indicated he’s willing to serve. Questions? [No response] Without objection. Thank you. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York will have to formally approve that as well. What are the odds there, Bill? VICE CHAIRMAN DUDLEY. Pretty good. CHAIRMAN BERNANKE. Item 4, “Proposed Revisions to the Authorization for Domestic Open Market Operations.” These were circulated in a January 23 memo from Simon Potter. A couple of revisions are proposed. Simon, would you like to briefly describe them? MR. POTTER. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. At its first meeting each year, the Committee reviews the Authorization for Foreign Currency Operations, the Foreign Currency Directive and related procedural instructions, and the Authorization for Domestic Open Market Operations. With regard to the domestic open market operations, I recommend that the authorization be renewed with two changes. The first proposed change entails a broadening of the authority under paragraph 6. As currently drafted, the Domestic Authorization authorizes and directs the Desk, on instruction of the Chairman, “to adjust . the degree of pressure on reserve positions and hence the intended federal funds rate.” This authority enables the Chairman to take action during an intermeeting period, when it is not feasible to consult with the full Committee before action is needed. With the current high level of excess reserves, it is possible that U.S. dollar funding markets may be disrupted in a manner that does not directly affect reserve positions or the federal funds rate. Given that this is the case, I am requesting that the authorization be altered in order to allow the Chairman to instruct the Desk to undertake open market operations to address such market disruptions in exceptional circumstances. For example, if, as a result of a natural disaster, secured funding rates increased to high levels while the federal funds rate remained within the target range, there could be a risk of a broader, more systemic disruption to the functioning of asset markets. In this case, conducting repurchase operations with dealers could potentially alleviate such market strains and warrant immediate action. The second proposed change is to address an inconsistency in the language describing the Committee’s long-run objectives as stated in the Domestic Authorization relative to those stated in the FOMC statement, the Committee’s public statement of its longer-run goals, and section 2A of the Federal Reserve Act. As is, the Domestic Authorization refers to “the Committee’s long-run objectives for price stability and sustainable economic growth” rather than “to foster maximum employment and price stability.” I recommend a change to the language of the Domestic Authorization to the latter clause to be consistent with these statements. January 29–30, 2013 6 of 269 In addition to these changes, I would also like to update the Committee on two items related to the Domestic Authorization. First, as you know, the System Open Market Account contains a significant amount of agency debt and agency MBS, and it continues to conduct transactions in MBS securities as part of the ongoing purchase program as well as the reinvestment policy adopted by the Committee. As such, I recommend a continued suspension of the Guidelines for the Conduct of System Operations in Federal Agency Issues. Second, the current authorization allows the Desk to utilize third-party agents, such as asset managers and custodian banks, in its agency MBS operations. Although the Desk conducts all agency MBS trading internally, we continue to require services for a variety of clearing, settlement, custodial, and analytical activities, and thus the language about the use of agents in the authorization remains necessary at this time. No Committee vote is needed related to these two actions. Turning to foreign currency operations, the Desk conducts such operations under the terms of the Authorization for Foreign Currency Operations, the Foreign Currency Directive, and the Procedural Instructions with Respect to Foreign Currency
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