AGENDA ITEM 9 Report to Cabinet Forward Plan reference number: FP/666/05/14 Date of meeting: 22nd July 214 County Divisions affected by the decision:

All Divisions

Title of report: Proposed Update and Re-launch of the East Anglian Rail Prospectus Report by Cllr Rodney Bass, Cabinet Member for Highways and Transportation Enquiries to Alastair Southgate, Transportation Strategy Manager, Telephone 03330 130561, email alastair.southgate@.gov.uk, tel

1. Purpose of report

1.1. Once in a generation – A rail prospectus for (the Prospectus) was prepared by local MPs and Essex, , and Cambridgeshire County Councils with support from the rail industry and was launched in July 2012.

1.2. The Prospectus is intended to provide a unified call for investment in agreed priorities that support economic growth across East Anglia.

1.3. The partners are keen that a revised and updated Prospectus is prepared to underpin continued calls for rail investment and to articulate the high-level ask of the new Greater Anglia franchise that will come into effect from October 2016.

1.4. This report gives Cabinet the opportunity to;  discuss the Prospectus and wider rail issues facing Essex and the impact these have on the delivery of the new Corporate Outcomes Framework;  agree the process by which the revised Prospectus will be endorsed by ECC prior to its formal launch.

2. Recommendations

2.1. That Cabinet notes the contents of this report and the vital role played by rail transport in supporting the Essex economy and the delivery of the new Corporate Outcomes Framework.

2.2. Authorises the Cabinet Member for Highways & Transportation to review drafts and endorse the revised Prospectus on behalf of ECC prior to its formal launch.

3. Background and proposal

3.1. This report is divided into several sections;  An introduction to Once in a generation – A rail prospectus for East Anglia.  An examination of the case for the revision of the Prospectus.  The timetable and process governing the awarding of the new Greater Anglia franchise  An introduction to ’s Long Term Planning Process  The case for rail investment  Investment priorities for Essex

Once in a generation – A rail prospectus for East Anglia

3.2. East Anglia has suffered for too long from the effects of under-investment in its rail network.

3.3. Once in a generation – A Rail Prospectus for East Anglia was prepared by local MPs, Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk and Cambridgeshire County Councils with support from the rail industry and was launched in July 2012. MP involvement has been led by Chloe Smith MP for North, with Priti Patel MP co- ordinating Essex MPs

3.4. The current Prospectus covers Essex, Norfolk, Suffolk and Cambridgeshire and is intended to provide a unified call for investment in agreed strategic priorities that support economic growth across East Anglia. .

3.5. Across Essex the current Prospectus has been endorsed by;  Essex MPs (John Baron, Simon Burns, Douglas Carswell, Robert Halfon, Rebecca Harris, Sir Alan Haselhurst, Bernard Jenkin, Stephen Metcalfe, Brooks Newmark, Priti Patel, Sir Bob Russell, John Whittingdale).  South East Local Enterprise Partnership  Stansted Airport  Essex Chambers of Commerce  Essex Rail Users Federation  GEML Vision Group  West Anglia Routes Group (WARG)  Basildon Borough Council, Brentwood Borough Council, Council, City Council, Borough Council, Epping Forest District Council, Maldon District Council, Council.

3.6. The current Prospectus calls for significant, but not unrealistic, investment in additional infrastructure and rolling stock. Key priorities include tackling the

congestion in and around London Liverpool Street and lines to the north through north London, Essex and Hertfordshire.

3.7. A summary of the priorities that benefit Essex is included at Appendix A.

3.8. A web link to a copy of Once in a generation – A rail prospectus for East Anglia is provided at section 9 of this report.

Revision of the Prospectus

3.9. The partners who produced the Prospectus are keen that it is updated. The purpose of this update is to maintain momentum and to refresh the document to increase its impact on key decisions that will be made in the near future.

3.10. It is anticipated that the revised prospectus will:  show progress since the launch of Once in a generation – A Rail Prospectus for East Anglia;  develop a unified high level ask of the new Greater Anglia franchise so that Partners can make their case to DfT ahead of the official start of the franchise process expected early in 2015;  add new evidence, highlight remaining issues and co-ordinate local input into Network Rail’s East Anglia Route Plan that is currently in development; and,  support the work of the parliamentary task force of local MPs established by Rt Hon George Osborne MP.

3.11. A table summarising progress made with implementing the original Prospectus to date is attached at Appendix B.

3.12. The timetable for the revision of the Prospectus is challenging if all interested partners are to have the opportunity to comment upon drafts and secure formal support from as many signatories as possible ahead of the launch of the revised prospectus in the autumn.

3.13. Current partners hope that Hertfordshire County Council who were not a party to the original Prospectus will support the revised prospectus, enhancing support for investment in West Anglia services.

3.14. Priti Patel MP has kindly co-ordinated responses from the Essex MPs and it is anticipated that she will continue to do so.

Greater Anglia franchise

3.15. DfT has extended the current short Abellio Greater Anglia franchise from July 2014 to October 2016, when a new long term franchise is expected to start.

3.16. DfT is expected to award the franchise to the following timetable;

Longer term Publish OJEU Issue ITT Contract Award Franchise Start

franchise Greater Anglia March 2015 August 2015 June 2016 October 2016

3.17. New franchises will be much less prescriptive than in the past and will instead be focussed upon the operator achieving defined objectives related to providing value for the tax payer, developing the market, improved levels of service and improved passenger satisfaction.

3.18. Essex County Council and local partners wish to influence this process before the Greater Anglia franchise objectives are finalised by DfT.

Network Rail’s Long Term Planning Process

3.19. Network Rail’s Long Term Planning Process is designed to facilitate the strategic planning of the rail network to meet future demand identified by Market Studies through the development of Route Plans for delivery within five year Control Periods (CP).

3.20. Network Rail has now agreed and published its Control Period 5 (CP5) Delivery Plan covering 2014/15 to 2018/19.

3.21. The London and South East Market Study that examines passenger growth scenarios to 2043 was published in 2013. A link to the London and South East Market Study is included below.

3.22. Network rail is currently developing a new East Anglia Route Plan that will identify investment proposals for CP6 (2019/20 to 2023/24) and beyond.

The case for rail investment

3.23. Abellio Greater Anglia has seen overall passenger growth of 17.6% on its network between 2010 and 2013, from 105.8m journeys to 124.4m journeys per annum, while passengers using services increased by 8% over the same period from 35m to 37.8m per annum.

3.24. The London and South East Market Study predicts strong continued growth in demand across East Anglia providing additional evidence in support of investment.

2011 total Forecast Increase 2011 to Route Service group (passengers per passengers in 2043 hour, peak) 2043 West Anglia 5,700 20,100 – 21,800 28% – 39% (WAML) London Liverpool Great Eastern 19,500 29,600 – 34,100 52% – 75% Street Main Line (GEML) GE Inners & 13,600 22,700 – 24,900 67% – 83%

London All services 16,300 20,200 – 23,800 24% – 46% Fenchurch Street

Table 1. Passengers forecast in 2043 - passengers per hour peak. (Long Term Planning Process: London and South East Market Study, Figure 6.6: London and South East peak hour passenger demand projections 2011 – 2043. Background growth plus committed schemes in CP4 and CP5)

3.25. ECC and Chelmsford City Council commissioned Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners to carry out an independent assessment of the economic benefits associated with investment in the at Chelmsford.

3.26. The study concludes that investment in a package of capacity enhancements and reduced journey times would deliver:  the creation of over 8,700 permanent jobs by 2043 as a result of the increased development activity along the route, generating additional economic output of circa £680m GVA over the 30 year appraisal period. These jobs in turn could support up to 1,750 indirect and induced jobs in the local economy;  over 36,000 additional construction jobs associated with additional development that could be supported along the route over the period to 2043 This in turn would increase construction GVA by just under £665m within the local economy;  up to 9,400 temporary construction jobs supported during the construction and implementation of the investment package, equivalent to approximately 940 FTE jobs across a range of skill levels. These jobs are expected to support a further 1,420 indirect jobs in the supply and £158m of Gross Value Added (GVA);  a significant increase in business rate receipts of nearly £10 million p.a. by 2043 generated by additional commercial development taking place along the GEML;  additional residential development along the route is expected to generate over £94m New Homes Bonus Payments, an additional £14.7m Council Tax receipts p.a. and additional resident expenditure of £230m over the period to 2043;  an estimated benefit of £8.9 million worth of journey time savings annually for residents and business users along the route; over the 30 year appraisal period this is equivalent to total journey time savings of £267m; and  an increase in capital residential values of £2.7bn for existing dwellings across the GEML route, as a result of enhanced capacity and connectivity that the investment will provide.

3.27. Since the publication of the Prospectus, (TfL) has announced and consulted upon proposals for including an option that would see the southern end of the West Anglia mainline linked to Wimbledon and beyond via a tunnel through . The current inner suburban trains serving the Lea Valley would be replaced by Crossrail 2 trains.

3.28. The implementation of the Crossrail 2 proposal could provide a significant opportunity for linked Investment along the southern end of the West Anglia mainline.

3.29. The Davies Commission Interim Report published in December 2013 proposed that existing capacity at London airports should be maximised and made the following proposals to incentivise growth at Stansted.  The Government should work with Network Rail and Transport for London on a detailed study of the route between London and Stansted Airport and serious consideration should be given to 4-tracking the line as far as Broxbourne Junction, subject to a robust business case being developed. This study should consider how enhancements to the route might benefit airport traffic, London commuters and traffic, recognising that any steps to enhance the Stansted Express service through regularising or reducing journey times and improving reliability will help the airport to play an enhanced role in supporting London and the UK’s international connectivity. The study should take full account of the Mayor’s London Growth Strategy.  The Government, Network Rail and Train Operators should work together on options to connect Stansted Airport to a wider range of London destinations, with a particular emphasis on making better use of the connection facilities available at Stratford domestic station.  The Government should work with train operators to promote the introduction of paperless ticketing facilities for journeys to and from Stansted Airport station.

Rail priorities for Essex

3.30. Essex County Council would also like to see a long term commitment to develop plans for the provision of additional new railway infrastructure for implementation in CP5 and CP6 onwards.  The construction the new station north of Chelmsford at Beaulieu Park complete with passing loops to provide access to the new urban extension and relieve congestion at Chelmsford Station. Funding via Local Growth Fund and a S106 agreement with the developer is now in place.  Additional track capacity on the Great Eastern Mainline to enable more efficient pathing of trains as identified in the GEML Capacity Study.  Extension of the third track on the West Anglia mainline from Tottenham Hale to Brimsdown and on towards Broxbourne.  4-tracking along the Lea Valley section of the West Anglia mainline. This could be delivered alongside Crossrail 2, with inner suburban West Anglia services running on the additional tracks to connect via a tunnel under central London to south-west London. With suitable line speed improvements, Cambridge services and Stansted Express services could use the existing lines to run a fast service to Liverpool St and Stratford.  Electrification of the Felixstowe to Nuneaton route to maximise freight transport via this route and reduce pressure on the Great Eastern line.

3.31. If Essex is to benefit fully from its location adjacent to London it is essential that journey times to London remain competitive. Essex would like to see a ccommitment to significant real improvements to journey times on all lines serving Essex (West Anglia, Great Eastern and Essex Thameside services);  Work with Network Rail to secure investment in line speed improvements between London Liverpool Street and Norwich to a maximum of 110 mph;  Increase WAML line speed to at least 100mph to cut journey times as a first step towards Stansted Airport’s ambition for a 30min journey time between central London and the airport.  Increase Essex Thameside line speed to 100mph.

3.32. Rolling stock investment.  It is essential that a start is made to the upgrade or replacement of the current Great Eastern outer suburban electric multiple units to ensure that these meet passenger requirements. Improvements should include 110mph running, improved acceleration, air conditioning, power sockets and wi-fi for all passengers, corridor connections between units, better comfort and improved seating suitable for longer journeys. Similar improvements are required on the West Anglia line where all services should offer a passenger experience equivalent to the new Stansted Express service  New high quality accessible InterCity style stock is urgently required on the Great Eastern Main Line. In the shorter term and until replacement stock becomes available it is essential that the current coaches undergo a full overhaul and refurbishment.  Additional high quality trains will be needed via the new franchise for Essex Thameside services to make effective use of recently completed track and station improvements.  All rolling stock that will not undergo refurbishment in the short term would benefit from a further programme of deep cleaning to improve the travelling environment for passengers.

3.33. We also believe that it is also important that the railway does more than connect Essex to London. The railway is also an important link between the towns and cities In Essex, and to other locations in East Anglia and beyond; these are amongst the fastest growing locations in the UK and are well placed to drive the local and national economy. The following Timetable improvements should be included in the next Greater Anglia franchise.  In the short term ECC wishes to see modest timetable improvements using existing rolling stock and would suggest a later departure beyond Colchester than 2330 hours from London, a Sunday service for Colchester Town and a 30 minute daytime service to Clacton.  Services to the two airports need to be retimed to better reflect early morning and late evening flight arrivals and departures, while maintaining Network Rail possession time for maintenance when necessary.  The introduction of a 15 minute frequency service between Southend Victoria, and Liverpool Street to improve service integration.

 The transfer of West Anglia inner suburban services to Transport for London (TfL) and the proposed increased frequency of these services must not disadvantage other services using the line.  We consider that an hourly train service is not credible if new passengers are to be attracted to the railway. All train stations in Essex should have a half-hourly train service throughout the working week including Saturdays. Half-hourly train services can be accommodated on some branch lines without expenditure on infrastructure or rolling stock while other services will require infrastructure investment. Network Rail should work with the , Essex County Council and local districts to identify and deliver an incremental programme of improved services on secondary lines including adding a new loop on the to double service frequency to half-hourly and additional infrastructure necessary for improved services to Clacton / Walton, , Southminster and on the Chafford Hundred branch. Electrification of the to Sudbury branch would increase flexibility and reduce operating costs.

3.34. Stations play a key role as the interface between rail and other forms of travel.  All stations need to offer an attractive and safe environment that welcomes passengers. Stations should be accessible to all passengers with clear train information provided.  With the current timetable Manningtree and Marks Tey are now both major interchanges in need of improved accessibility; in particular the provision of lifts to provide step free access between platforms.  The introduction of Crossrail will see Shenfield become a major interchange station. Improvements to the station and improved access to station are essential.

3.35. It is important that the rail industry considers the complete journey as the decision whether or not to travel by train is not solely dependent upon times, frequencies and fares. Other factors such as access to stations, the overall quality of the service, and the cost, availability and convenience of alternatives are equally important.  As a local transport authority Essex County Council has wide responsibilities for transport provision across Essex and ECC would welcome opportunities to work with Train Operating Companies to further integrate rail with other forms of transport.  ECC would like to see increased support and financial commitment from Train Operating Companies to Station Travel Plans and Community Rail Partnerships,  We also believe that all franchises should require train operating companies to work with bus operators to ensure connecting services have smart through ticketing. Opportunities offered by dedicated bus links to stations such as Saffron Walden to Audley End and Tilbury Town to Tilbury Ferry Terminal should be expanded.

4. Policy context and Outcomes Framework

4.1. The Corporate Outcomes Framework 2014-2018 sets out the seven high level outcomes that we want to achieve to ensure prosperity and wellbeing for our residents. Securing these outcomes will make Essex a more prosperous county; one where people can flourish, live well and achieve their ambitions.

4.2. The seven outcomes are listed below:  Children in Essex get the best start in life  People in Essex enjoy good health and wellbeing  People have aspirations and achieve their ambitions through education, training and lifelong-learning  People in Essex live in safe communities and are protected from harm  Sustainable economic growth for Essex communities and businesses  People in Essex experience a high quality and sustainable environment  People in Essex can live independently and exercise control over their lives

4.3. The proposal in this report is consistent with our principles and fully supports the achievement of our outcomes:  The East Anglian Rail Prospectus is intended to attract investment that will drive economic growth in Essex, widening access to employment and improving the competitiveness of the Essex economy, driving sustainable economic growth for Essex communities and businesses as evidenced by the NLP economic impact assessment (see paragraph 3.26).  Rail services provide safe and sustainable transport for many people living within Essex enabling access to education, training and health services and supporting independent living.  ECC will work with the rail industry to ensure that the preferred option delivers value for money and benefits the people of Essex.

4.4. Our rail lines are nationally important strategic links connecting Essex to London and the rest of Britain.

4.5. An efficient rail network is essential to the delivery of the Economic Growth Strategy vision; Essex is an economically vibrant and successful entrepreneurial county. Our economic vision is of a county where businesses and our residents can grow and fulfil their potential, making Essex the best place to live and work. The rail network enables the efficient transport of people and goods, supports our locations for growth and is essential for the development of the ports and logistics business sector.

4.6. Investment in the rail network fully supports the Draft Economic Plan for Essex (EPfE) delivering economic growth along the A12 and Great Eastern Mainline, M11 West Anglia Mainline London-Harlow-Stansted-Cambridge, A127 London-Basildon-Southend, and A13 London-Thurrock-Canvey Island growth corridors.

4.7. Rail investment also supports the delivery of the Essex Local Transport Plan vision for a transport system that supports sustainable economic growth and helps deliver the best quality of life for the residents of Essex by providing connectivity for Essex communities and international gateways to support sustainable economic growth and regeneration

5. Financial Implications

5.1. The update of the existing prospectus has potential future benefits for ECC provided the document can be used as a lobbying tool to attract future external funding to invest in the transportation network across the regions covered.

5.2. The current requirement for ECC resources to facilitate the update (in terms of staff time etc.) is already covered within existing budgets; as a result there are no new cost implications.

6. Legal Implications

6.1. The Council does not have a direct role in the commissioning or delivery of rail services, but it is a consultee and it may be influential in helping to secure improvements to services commissioned and delivered by others.

7. Staffing and other resource implications

7.1. None

8. Equality and Diversity implications

8.1. Section 149 of the Equality Act 2010 creates the public sector equality duty which requires that when ECC makes decisions it must have regard to the need to: (a) Eliminate unlawful discrimination, harassment and victimisation and other behaviour prohibited by the Act (b) Advance equality of opportunity between people who share a protected characteristic and those who do not. (c) Foster good relations between people who share a protected characteristic and those who do not including tackling prejudice and promoting understanding.

8.2. The protected characteristics are age, disability, gender reassignment, pregnancy and maternity, race, religion or belief, gender and sexual orientation.

8.3. There is no absolute duty to achieve these outcomes. The decision maker must balance equalities with all other relevant factors.

8.4. An initial equality impact assessment of the East Anglian Rail Prospectus indicates that it will not have a disproportionately adverse impact on any people with a particular characteristic and is compliant with the aims and policies contained within the current Local Transport Plan.

8.5. Equality and diversity impacts of specific proposals contained within the Prospectus will be considered by Government, Network Rail, Train Operating Companies and ECC as appropriate as proposals are developed and implemented.

9. Background papers

9.1. Once in a generation – A rail prospectus for East Anglia. http://www.newanglia.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Rail-prospectus-for- East-Anglia.pdf

9.2. The London and South East Market Study. http://www.networkrail.co.uk/improvements/planning-policies-and-plans/long- term-planning-process/market-studies/london-and-south-east/

9.3. GEML Capacity Study Appended

9.4. Investment in the Great Eastern Main Line at Chelmsford, Economic Impact Assessment Appended

APPENDIX A ONCE IN A GENERATION – A RAIL PROSPECTUS FOR EAST ANGLIA; KEY ASKS THAT BENEFIT ESSEX

The key asks contained within the 2012 edition of the Prospectus that benefit Essex are listed below,

Great Eastern Main Line (GEML)

The short-term vision (to 2019)  Complete Bow Junction capacity improvements to increase slots into Liverpool St and connections to Docklands  Increase the maximum line speed to 110mph along sections of the GEML for all trains  New, Inter City-quality trains and refurbishment of all trains as a minimum  Extra third track north of Chelmsford to enable overtaking and increase capacity north of Shenfield and the construction of a new station  Development of Felixstowe to Nuneaton freight corridor including chord and Ely North junction to increase capacity, frequency and reliability on GEML  Class 321 trains to be fitted with improved door opening and 360s modified for 110mph  Punctuality of at least 93 per cent on a consistent basis

The long-term vision (to 2032)  Faster journey times along the route for commuter and Inter-City services with headline targets including Chelmsford in 25 mins, Colchester in 40 mins, Manningtree in 50 mins, Ipswich in 60 mins, in 70 minutes, Diss in 80 and Norwich in 90 mins, with no reduction in frequency and number of stations currently served  Provision of a half hourly minimum service to all stations  New, high quality (air conditioning, automatic doors, Wifi, power sockets) trains operating all services on the GEML and feeder lines and Intercity- quality trains with catering on the Norwich-Ipswich-Colchester-London services with all trains capable of 110mph running  Reliability and punctuality performance of at least 93%

West Anglia route  Work to begin to increase track and train capacity on the West Anglia line including four tracking part of the Lea Valley route  Introduce four trains per hour from the Lea Valley to Stratford including Angel Road, Northumberland Park, with stopping service at a new Lea Bridge Station  Earlier arrivals at Stansted Airport from 4am to meet check in times for early morning flights, half hourly Cambridge- Stansted service frequency introduced  Faster journey times along the entire route, headline targets; Stansted Airport in 30 minutes, Cambridge in 60 minutes

 New high quality trains on all services with air conditioning, automatic doors, Wi-Fi and plug sockets  Reliability and punctuality of 93% on a consistent Basis

Essex Thameside

The short-term vision (to 2019)  Fenchurch St capacity improvements  High quality rolling stock to enable the running of more 12 car trains  Shorter journey times  Improved station environs and facilities  Improved accessibility of rail by all modes of transport including provision of inter-modal ticketing and smart cards  Gospel Oak to Barking Electrification to enable freight transfer from London Gateway

The long-term vision (to 2032)  The minimising of the high number of level crossings (particularly in Thurrock)  Track infrastructure investment to enable 100mph train operation

APPENDIX B ONCE IN A GENERATION – A RAIL PROSPECTUS FOR EAST ANGLIA; ASSESSMENT OF PROGRESS

Short term priorities 2014 – 2019 (CP5) Status (Red, Amber, Green)

Infrastructure Bow Junction re-modelling Planned for CP5 CP4 and CP5 plans mostly agreed, but with Felixstowe Felixstowe – Nuneaton improvements CP4/5 – Ipswich capacity increase to be finalised Planned for CP5, but with Ely station to Ely N Jct Ely North Junction and associated upgrades scheme to be finalised Crossrail works underway and on course for CP5. Crossrail development Local improvements at Shenfield and Brentwood stations require funding agreements. West Anglia three tracking scheme and line Three tracking scheme funded and planned for CP5, speed improvements but little scope for line speeds in same period Not agreed yet – need to secure Journey Time Funds. Increase GEML lines speeds Linked to rolling stock upgrades. Planning permission granted for Beaulieu Park Station Increase capacity north of Chelmsford and and funding agreed via S106 agreement and SELEP. Beaulieu Park (Chelmsford North) station Wider capacity enhancements not agreed and not yet funded Freight access to London Gateway Gospel Oak – Barking electrification planned for CP5 London station enhancements Some minor changes planned including Fenchurch St Potential schemes being evaluated, with one or two Cross-regional and local line improvements likely in CP5

Rolling stock Options for and commuter stock being New or refurbished intercity trains evaluated for short term refurbishment, then long term decision linked to long franchise Upgrading West Anglia trains Linked to long term franchise Additional rolling stock for Essex Thameside Linked to long term franchise IEP to Kings Lynn Linked to long term franchise

Service development Maintain existing services Yes (no changes planned) Linked to long franchise, but now possible after three Four trains an hour from Lea Valley to Stratford tracking Earlier trains to Stansted and half hourly Both options now being actively evaluated by Greater Cambridge – Stansted Anglia Local line upgrades to address key gaps - Linked to long term franchise especially hourly Ipswich - Peterborough

Other service upgrades Punctuality up to 93% Good progress – MAA at 92.78% Refresh for all stations well advanced and some bigger Stations refurbished schemes progressed Print-at-home in place for advance purchase tickets. Smartcard and print-at-home ticketing Smartcard trial planned for Southend line