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Afigure-1: Scatter All Countries in the Sample Essays on Political Dynasties: Evidence from Empirical Investigations By Ashikur Rahman A thesis submitted to the Department of Government of the London School of Economics and Political Science for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy London, April 2013 1 Declaration I certify that the thesis I have submitted for examination for the MPhil/PhD degree of the London School of Economics and Political Science is solely a product of my work. The copyright of this thesis rests with the author. Quotation from it is permitted, provided full acknowledgement is made. This thesis may not be reproduced without the prior consent of the author. I warrant that this authorization does not, to the best of my knowledge, infringe the right of any third party. Word Count: 87210 2 Abstract This thesis consists of four papers, each of which helps to understand certain dynamics surrounding political dynasties. The first paper focuses on the role of ‘dynastic identity’ in influencing the behaviour of legislators from the political class of Bangladesh. In particular, it analyses whether dynastic legislators behave differently in comparison to non-dynastic legislators by examining their parliamentary attendance level and the likelihood of them having a criminal profile. The findings from the analysis suggest that ‘dynastic identity’ may influence a legislator’s behaviour. The second paper investigates if there is a systematic relationship between dynasty-politics and corruption in a cross-country empirical analysis. In doing so, the paper produces multiple dynasty indices that try to capture the variation in dynasty- politics across countries. The key findings from this scrutiny are indicative that countries with greater prevalence of dynasty-politics are associated with higher levels of corruption. In the third paper, I study the role of political assassination in facilitating the rise of political dynasties in Bangladesh. More specifically, I construct a data set of political leaders from Bangladesh who faced at least one assassination attempt to exploit the randomness in the success or failure of assassination attempts to identify assassination’s effect on the probability that a leader will start a political dynasty. The results point out that successful assassination increases the likelihood that a political leader will have a posterior relative in office. Lastly, the fourth paper examines if political assassinations have facilitated the rise of political dynasties across countries. To this end, the paper builds on the data used in Jones and Olken (2009), which has information on leaders with at least one assassination attempt. Thus, by comparing national leaders who barely survived an assassination attempt with those who died, the effects of political assassinations on dynasty formation are studied. 3 Acknowledgements In writing this thesis, I have received essential support from a large number of people. To begin, I would like to acknowledge the constant assistance I have received from my supervisors Torun Dewan and Joachim Wehner. Over the course of last four years, my supervisors have provided me invaluable feedback, rigorous scrutiny, incisive guidance and enduring encouragement, for which I am thoroughly grateful. Other members of staff at the LSE have also been kind enough to discuss various aspects of the overall thesis and provide their constructive criticism. In particular, I am thankful to Patrick Dunleavy, Vesselin Dimitrov, Ed Page, and John Sidel for providing me valuable comments on early drafts of some of the essays in the thesis. Moreover, during my pursuit of MPA at LSE, I greatly benefited from countless discussions with Robin Burgess and Oriana Bandiera, which ultimately motivated me to enrol for the doctoral programme at the LSE. I also benefited from the comments on the drafts I have received from some friends, namely Klaus, Muntasir, Selim, Rafi, Risdon, Sameer, and my father in law Mr Abul Kalam Azad. While undertaking this research, I was fortunate enough to have help from Alam Raihan, Sheikh Farid and, Kabir Bhai for compiling the data sets on Bangladesh, and for providing assistance on various different aspects of the thesis. I also had the privilege of working alongside an astounding group of fellow doctoral students at the Department of Government. Among them, I am in gratitude to Mike, Jose, Stefan, Nick, Anar, Ninfa, Matthew, Kathleen, Liela, Guy, Faheem, Ursula, Johanes, Baldwin, Eric, Kenneth, Outi, Ting, Joyce,and Fabrizio, for their advice, support, humour and tolerance. Given that a large number of commentators have shared their advice on this thesis, I have tried to address their criticisms and concerns as much as possible. If the work still carries some notable imperfection, then it is not for the lack of good advice. On a personal note, I wish to express my undying gratitude to my Ma, brothers (Anjan and Partho bhai), and my loving wife (Farhana) for their unconditional support and love. Lastly, (and most importantly), I wish to dedicate this thesis to the memory of my Baba, whose love, guidance and affection has made my life complete. If there is a scope of any metaphysical existence in the afterlife, I hope he views my accomplishment with some satisfaction. 4 Contents Abstract...............................................................................................................................................3 Acknowldgements ..............................................................................................................................4 List of Tables ......................................................................................................................................7 List of Figures.....................................................................................................................................9 List of Boxes....................................................................................................................................... 9 List of Maps......................................................................................................................................10 1. Introduction..................................................................................................................................11 1.1 Why understand the dynamics surrounding political dynasties .....................................11 1.2 What motivations govern the behaviour of dynastic politicians ......................................14 1.3 What facilitates the emrgence of political dynasties.........................................................20 1.4 Theme – I .............................................................................................................................23 1.5 Theme – II ............................................................................................................................27 1.6 Outline of the Thesis ...........................................................................................................32 2. Motivations of Dynastic Leaders: An Emperical Investigation from Bangladesh ................33 2.1 Introduction: Why look into the motivations of dynastic leaders? .................................34 2.2 Literature Review and Theory ...........................................................................................36 2.3 Historical Background, Data and Emperical Method......................................................45 2.4 Results and Interpretations.................................................................................................56 2.5 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................64 3. Corruption and Dynasty Politics ................................................................................................86 3.1 Introduction: Is Corruption and Dynasty-Politics linked?..............................................87 3.2 Literature Review and Theory ...........................................................................................89 3.3 Data and Methodology ........................................................................................................98 3.4 Results ................................................................................................................................108 3.5 Conclusion ..........................................................................................................................120 5 4. The Comnposition of Political Class: The Role of Assassinations.........................................144 4.1 Introduction: What factors hspe the composition of political class? ............................145 4.2 Literature Review .............................................................................................................147 4.3 The Composition of Political Class in Bangladesh..........................................................151 4.4 Identification Strategy an Results ....................................................................................161 4.5 Conclusion and Caveats ....................................................................................................171 5. Assassinationsand Political Dynasties......................................................................................187 5.1 Introduction: Does political assassination matter?.........................................................188 5.2 Literature Review and Theory .........................................................................................191
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