Information Classification: CONTROLLED

Economic Impact of COVID-19 and emerging Recovery Plan (Ver.9 - 28.09.20) Economic Growth Service Information Classification: CONTROLLED Vacancies in Vacancies by Sector Q2 2019 Compared to Q2 2020 Q2 2019 Q2 2020 % Change Health & social work 9% Education 8% Public administration etc. -32% The vast majority of vacancies Wholesale, retail & motors -45% available in Cornwall during Professional, scientific & technical -30% Quarter 2, 2020 were in the Manufacturing -38% sectors of Health and Social Information & communication 2% Work, Education and Public Accommodation & food services -89% Administration. Administrative & support services -32% Construction -58% The majority of sectors have Transportation & storage -48% Other services -24% seen declines in vacancies Real estate -61% available when compared to Water & waste -24% Quarter 2, 2019. Financial & insurance -63% Arts, entertainment & recreation -31% Cornwall in Q2 2020 had Households 67% 4,260 job vacancies this is a Mining & quarrying -53% fall of when Agriculture, forestry & fishing -40% 1392 vacancies Energy -75% compared to Q2 2019. 0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 Number of Vacancies Information Classification: CONTROLLED DWP – People on Universal Credit CC Analysis of UC Data for March to August 2020 Largest Percentage Increases – Top 5 LSOA’s in Cornwall IoS MARCH AUGUST MSOA CHANGE 2020 2020 (P) Universal Credit in Cornwall Code Name No's No's No's % Isles of Scilly Between March Isles of Scilly 24 136 112 466.7% 001A 95.8% and August 2020 St Ives Alexandra Road Cornwall 054C 29 139 110 379.3% and Porthmeor Statistics from the DWP for Cornwall 033C Bolingey and Callestick 25 91 66 264.0% August provide a stark contrast Cornwall 007B Port Isaac and St Kew 33 119 86 260.6% with the pre-lockdown figures in March. Overall, across Cornwall St Ives Treloyhan and Cornwall 054D 38 137 99 260.5% Carbis Bay Counthouse and Isles of Scilly numbers rose Largest Numerical Increases – Top 5 LSOA’s in Cornwall IoS from 24,901 in March to 48,765 MARCH AUGUST in August, up by 23,864 or 95.8%. MSOA CHANGE 2020 2020 (P) Code Name No's No's No's % This increase highlights significant St Columb Minor and Cornwall 018B 174 407 233 133.9% stress in the labour market. It Lane must however be seen in the Fistral and Cornwall 020A 200 427 227 113.5% Headland context of unemployment being Cornwall 021C Newquay Narrowcliff 185 390 205 110.8% at very low levels pre crisis.

Cornwall 020B Newquay Town Centre 219 408 189 86.3%

Cornwall 024B Roche North 146 310 164 112.3% Information Classification: CONTROLLED DWP – People on Universal Credit

Rural areas have seen larger percentage increases than urban areas which typically had higher levels of UC claims before the pandemic. Information Classification: CONTROLLED Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme Cornwall and Isles of Scilly – Breakdown 30 June Please Note: All figures are rounded to the nearest 1%. Figures are cumulative therefore they don't show the current number of jobs furloughed.

Cornwall and IOS Take Up Rate 37% of Eligible Employments.

Cornwall and Isles of Scilly has one of the highest furlough take up rates in the . Pointing to a greater economic impact. Information Classification: CONTROLLED Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme Cornwall and Isles of Scilly – Breakdown 30 June Please Note: All figures are rounded to the nearest 100. Figures are cumulative therefore they don't show the current number of jobs furloughed.

Number of Jobs Supported 84,300 Across Cornwall and Isles of 11,300 Scilly up to 30 June 2020

Figures are based on an employee’s last known address to HMRC. This is therefore resident based data and does not translate to the employees usual place of work. Information Classification: CONTROLLED Self-Employment Income Support Scheme Cornwall – Breakdown 31 July Please Note: All figures are rounded to the nearest 1%

Cornwall Take Up Rate 77% of Eligible Population.

Cornwall has one of the higher SEISS take up rates in the United Kingdom. Pointing to a greater economic need for support in Cornwall's self- employed workforce, than other areas. Information Classification: CONTROLLED Self-Employment Income Support Scheme Cornwall – Breakdown 31 July Please Note: All figures are rounded to the nearest 100 , £100,000, £100 and nearest 1%

Potentially Eligible Population Number of Claims 40,300 30,900 People Across Cornwall Potentially Claims in Cornwall to Eligible when the Scheme Launched the 30 June 2020

Total Value of Claims Average Value of Claims £86.3m £2,800 Claimed by Self Employed in Average Value of Claims in Cornwall as 30 June 2020 Cornwall as 30 June 2020 Information Classification: CONTROLLED Business Support Grants Grant Schemes Delivered by following guidance from Central Government.

Small Business (SBGF) & Retail, Local Authority Hospitality and Leisure Grant Funds Discretionary Fund (RHLG) Total Grant Funding Paid Out Total Grant Funding Paid Out Original Allocation over budget of subscribed. £235m £281m. £13.45m Businesses Supported Businesses Supported With a £10,000 20,500+ 1,345 grant. Following lobbying from Local Authorities across the country, Businesses eligible for the the discretionary grant fund was explicitly created to plug the Small Business Grant gaps in the original scheme e.g shared business premises, received a payment of B&Bs paying council tax, market traders and charities in £10,000. Businesses eligible receipt of charitable business rates. The total budget for this for the hospitality, retail and discretionary grant was capped by government and in leisure grant received Cornwall demand for the scheme exceeded the available £25,000. budget with approximately £27m of demand. Information Classification: CONTROLLED Business Support Grants Total Grant Support Paid Out – 5 July

Camborne £32m & £55m and & Newquay Falmouth £27m South East Cornwall St.Ives £42m £52m £39m North Cornwall Figures are rounded to the nearest million and are for all three grant schemes (SBGF,RHLGF & LADG) RETAIL, SMALL PARLIAMENTARY HOSPITALITY DISCRETIONARY TOTAL BUSINESS TOTAL VALUE TOTAL VALUE CONSTITUENCY & LEISURE GRANT VALUE GRANT GRANT and Redruth 1796 £17,960,000 446 £7,055,000 189 £1,890,000 North Cornwall 3698 £35,000,000 943 £15,490,000 183 £1,830,000 South East Cornwall 2192 £21,920,000 576 £8,790,000 116 £1,160,000 St Austell and Newquay 2579 £25,790,000 810 £13,365,000 232 £2,320,000 St Ives 3698 £36,980,000 1068 £16,155,000 270 £1,961,245 Truro and Falmouth 2424 £24,240,000 748 £12,985,000 207 £2,070,000 Information Classification: CONTROLLED Business Support Grants Parliamentary Constituency Comparison – 5 July GRANT PAYMENTS GRANT VALUE St Ives parliamentary RANK PARLIAMENTARY CONSTITUENCY (excluding discretionary ENTERPRISES PER 1000 grant) ENTERPRISES constituency had the 1 St Ives £53,135,000 3,840 £13,837,240 highest value of grants paid 2 Scarborough and Whitby £50,325,000 3,720 £13,528,226 per 1000 enterprises in 3 North Norfolk £46,765,000 3,500 £13,361,429 at the beginning of 4 Blackpool South £31,955,000 2,460 £12,989,837 July. Analysing the figures in 5 Clacton £27,865,000 2,230 £12,495,516 6 Berwick-upon-Tweed £37,140,000 3,500 £10,611,429 this way removes the total 7 Great Yarmouth £29,840,000 2,830 £10,544,170 number of enterprises in an 8 St Austell and Newquay £39,155,000 3,865 £10,130,660 area as a variable allowing 9 North Thanet £29,920,000 2,970 £10,074,074 direct comparisons. 10 Isle of Wight £46,315,000 4,620 £10,024,892 12 North Cornwall £50,490,000 5,185 £9,737,705 Cornwall’s Constituencies 34 Camborne and Redruth £25,015,000 3,045 £8,215,107 42 South East Cornwall £30,710,000 3,835 £8,007,823 are in the top fifty for value 45 Truro and Falmouth £37,225,000 4,680 £7,954,060 of grants per thousand 524 Putney £10,995,000 4,995 £2,201,201 enterprises. This analysis 525 Croydon South £12,040,000 5,525 £2,179,186 points to high levels of need, 526 Wokingham £12,680,000 5,860 £2,163,823 527 Luton South £10,545,000 4,920 £2,143,293 greater levels of small 528 Chipping Barnet £13,585,000 6,480 £2,096,451 business/eligibility for the 529 Holborn and St Pancras £52,610,000 25,280 £2,081,092 SBGF and strong delivery of 530 Harwich and North Essex £8,345,000 4,230 £1,972,813 the grant support. The 531 Harrow East £12,300,000 6,465 £1,902,552 532 Cities of London and Westminster £89,600,000 69,060 £1,297,423 RHLGF is not a significant 533 Sheffield, Hallam £3,185,000 2,775 £1,147,748 driver of the high rankings. Information Classification: CONTROLLED Business Interruption Loan Scheme (CBILS) Cornwall and Isles of Scilly – Breakdown 2 August

CBILS Loans by Parliamentary Constituency – Loans per 1000 Enterprises RANK OUT NUMBER OF NUMBER OF LOANS PER 1000 CONSTITUENCY OF 650 ENTERPRISES LOANS ENTERPRISES 63 Truro and Falmouth 4,680 108 23 68 St Austell and Newquay 3,865 88 23 254 Camborne and Redruth 3,045 55 18 385 St Ives 3,840 59 15 456 North Cornwall 5,185 72 14 522 South East Cornwall 3,835 48 13

CBILS is a scheme for small and medium-sized Coronavirus Business business providing access to loans and other forms Interruption Loans in Cornwall of finance up to a value of £5 million. The and Isles of Scilly government guarantees 80% of the finance to the Up to the lender and pays interest and any fees for the first 12 430 2 August months. Information Classification: CONTROLLED Bounce Back Loan Scheme (BBLS) Cornwall and Isles of Scilly – Breakdown 2 August

BBLS Loans by Parliamentary Constituency – Loans per 1000 Enterprises RANK OUT NUMBER OF NUMBER OF LOANS PER 1000 CONSTITUENCY OF 650 ENTERPRISES LOANS ENTERPRISES 156 St Austell and Newquay 3,865 1798 465 269 St Ives 3,840 1591 414 274 Camborne and Redruth 3,045 1258 413 277 Truro and Falmouth 4,680 1930 412 347 South East Cornwall 3,835 1479 386 404 North Cornwall 5,185 1847 356

BBLS is a lending scheme for small and micro businesses, providing loans from £2k up to a maximum loan of £50k. Bounce Back Loans in Cornwall and Isles of Scilly The BBLS enables businesses to obtain a six-year term Up to the loan at a government set interest rate of 2.5% a year. The 9903 2 August government will cover interest payable in the first year. Information Classification: CONTROLLED

Initial Impact and Estimated Impact Early Estimates of the Impact of COVID-19 on the .

Please Note: Early estimates were based on the best available information at the time. The situation continues to change and therefore figures should be considered in this context. Information Classification: CONTROLLED Tortoise Media – Sales Impact (April 2020) Tortoise Media Consumer Spending Analysis – 27 April

“Cornwall may be the biggest economic British loser from the lockdown”

“The challenge now is not just to ‘level up’ but to rebuild our social infrastructure in the communities that need it most.” Information Classification: CONTROLLED Tortoise Media – Sales Impact Tortoise Media Consumer Spending Analysis – 22 June Tortoise Media during the lock down undertook some research looking at the impact of the COVID-19 on consumer spending across England and Wales. The data compares sales with the equivalent week in the previous year. Ongoing analysis has continued to identify a number of Cornish towns experiencing significant drops in sales and therefore an ongoing economic impact due to COVID-19. The last update at the end of June showed many Cornish towns moving up the rankings even as the impact begins to ease. This points to a slower recovery compared to other towns in England and Wales.

Percentage change in sales compared with same week in 2019 Wk.end - 14 April Wk.end - 22 June NON- NON- RANKING TOWN OR CITY (TTWA) ALL SALES GROCERY ALL SALES GROCERY (PREVIOUS RANK) SALES SALES -67% -85% -51% -55% 1 (3) ↑ -69% -89% -42% -57% 2 (2) - Redruth and Truro -56% -73% -20% -30% 17 (22) ↑ -45% -73% -17% -33% 26 (80) ↑ St. Austell and Newquay -48% -71% -17% -29% 31 (59) ↑ Falmouth -54% -77% -14% -25% 39 (29) ↓ -46% -67% -11% -27% 52 (70) ↑ Launceston -42% -66% -8% -20% 81 (98) ↑ Information Classification: CONTROLLED Imfoco – Sales Impact

Some areas are seeing increases compared to normal levels of spending driven by very high percentage increases in grocery spending. This pattern is likely the result of an strong increased reliance on corner shops above pre pandemic levels. CC Analysis of Imfoco Data Information Classification: CONTROLLED CC – Job Impact Estimates (May 2020) Net Impact on Jobs – CC Estimates Using ISER Research Total Net Change: Employee: Self-Employed: -58,700 -72,800 Jobs -14,100 Lost: -68,000 27% of Cornwall's Lost: -15,000 Gained: 9,300 Total Employment Gained: 900

Estimated Employee Job Impact by Sector Estimated Self-Employed Job Impact by Sector 15000 1500 10000 1000 500 5000 0 0 -500 -5000 -1000 -10000 -1500 -2000 -15000 -2500 Net Change in Jobs Change Net Net Change in Jobs Change Net -20000 -3000 -25000 -3500 -30000 -4000 Information Classification: CONTROLLED CC & CPP – GVA Estimates (May 2020) CC GVA Estimates Using ISER Research Assuming that changes in output also mirrored changes in Annual GVA: employment as the ISER analysis suggested the estimated potential loss to Cornwall’s GVA was £1,984 million, had the lockdown lasted a year. The most significant impacts would have -22% been felt in the Wholesale, Retail and Motors and If the lockdown was Accommodation and Food Services sectors. to last a year.

Centre for Progressive Policy Analysis The CPP estimated Local Authorities quarter two GVA. Quarter 2 GVA:

-34%UK: -35% 276 out of 382 Local Authorities. Information Classification: CONTROLLED Centre for Towns – Exposure (May 2020) Centre for Towns – Sectoral Exposure to COVID-19

Towns with the Highest Sectorial Impact from COVID-19 Identified At-Risk Sectors: % EMPLOYED IN TOWN REGION SHUTDOWN SECTORS • Accommodation; Newquay South West 56.2 • Art and Leisure; Skegness East Midlands 54.7 • Non-food Retail; Whickham North East 52.8 • Pubs and Restaurants. Cleveleys North West 48.2 St. Ives (Cornwall) South West 48.0 The Centre for Towns identified the Minehead South West 48.0 towns (in England and Wales) with the Aberystwyth Wales 47.1 highest proportion of employees Whitby Yorkshire and The Humber 46.9 Ilkley Yorkshire and The Humber 44.7 working in each at risk sector and Kingsteignton South West 44.5 therefore expected to see a high Mablethorpe East Midlands 44.5 impact from COVID-19. Swanage South West 44.2 Sidmouth South West 43.4 Porthcawl Wales 43.0 Newquay has the highest combined Penzance South West 42.2 employment in the at-risk sectors Llandudno Wales 40.9 identified by the Centre for Towns, Falmouth South West 40.6 making it the most exposed town in Kinmel Bay Wales 39.8 Sandown South East 39.6 England and Wales. St. Blazey South West 39.3 Information Classification: CONTROLLED

Recovery Plan 2020 to 2021 - DRAFT

Please Note: Recovery Plan still work in progress and is being presented to Economy Overview and Scrutiny Panel on 13th October. Therefore it is not yet agreed by CC. In addition a long term recovery plan is being developed in conjunction with the LEP and other stakeholders. Information Classification: CONTROLLED Initial 18 month Recovery Plan – focuses on what CC can do from own resources Information Classification: CONTROLLED

Key Principles Information Classification: CONTROLLED

Key Principles Information Classification: CONTROLLED

Example Actions Information Classification: CONTROLLED

Example Actions Information Classification: CONTROLLED

Example Actions Information Classification: CONTROLLED

Example Actions Information Classification: CONTROLLED

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