Pacific Forum CSIS Honolulu, Hawaii Number 92 December 24, 2013

2013 PacNet Newsletter Index 14. Building Toward a Stable and Cooperative Long-term US- Strategic Relationship by Ralph Cossa, Lewis Dunn and The comprehensive 2013 index of each PacNet newsletter is Li Hong listed below, with hyperlinks. Pacific Forum CSIS looks forward to continuing to publish timely insight and analysis in 15. Navigating US-China Relations: Complicated by China’s 2013. “Unrelenting Strategy” by Jenny Lin 1. A Good Start for Mr. Abe by Kazuhiko Togo 16. Why Was North Korea In Such a Hurry with its Missile 1A. Re-thinking Futenma, Revitalizing the Alliance by Kerry and Nuclear Tests? The Challenges for 2013 and Beyond by Gershaneck Sukjoon Yoon

2. Kim Jong-un’s New Year’s Speech; A Kindler, Gentler 17. Devil in Details of Grand Urban Plan by Francesco Sisci North Korea? by Evans J. R. Revere 17A. The Way of Restructuring by Laurence Brahm 2A. Sympathy for the Devil – How Best to Deal with NK by Spencer H. Kim 18. Grounding of USS Guardian in : Longer-term Implications by Sam Bateman 3. Not Beyond Hope: and TPP by Matthew P. Goodman 19. The Spartacus in China’s Wonderland by Yujing Shentu 4. Virtual Suggestions: and North Korea by Peter Hayes and Roger Cavazos 20. Reading Into ’s Nuclear Debate by Toby Dalton and Yoon Ho Jin 5. Comparative Connections Summaries 20R. Response to PacNet #20 “Reading Into South Korea’s 6. China-Japan Relations – Now What? by Dong Wang Nuclear Debate” by Jinho Park

6A. The China-Japan Tango, Talks and Time by Jean-Marc F. 21. Shale: the Wedge between Russia and China by Robert Blanchard Blohm

7. Kim’s Second Test is Xi’s First by Ralph A. Cossa 22. Understand Xi Jinping’s Renaissance, Put it in Historical Context, by Hoang Anh Tuan 8. The Proliferation Security Initiative in ASEAN: A Glass Half Full or Half Empty? by David Santoro and Shahriman 23. Will China’s Soft-Power Strategy on South Korea Lockman Succeed? by Sunny Seong-hyon Lee

9. North Korea: Breaking the Cycle by Ralph A. Cossa 24. The Real Lessons from North Korea’s Ongoing Threats by Chung Min Lee 9A. Coercive Engagement toward North Korea by Jinho Park 25. Obama-Park Summit a Critical Opportunity for the US- 10. North Korean Nuclear Test: Implications for Asian Korea Alliance by Scott W. Harold Security by Muthiah Alagappa 26. Disturbing Disconnects in the US-Japan Alliance by Brad 11. China-Japan Maritime Relations: The Case for Cautious Glosserman Optimism by James Manicom 27. The Beting Serupai Incident by Tang Siew Mun 12. US Alliances in Asia: Doing More with Less by Carl Baker and Brad Glosserman 28. China Will Not Change its Nuclear Policy by Yao Yunzhu

13. South Korea’s Strengthened Deterrence against Nuclear 29. Does China Have a Strategy? Modern China or Dystopia: North by Richard Seok-ho Kang Alternate Futures? by Robert A. Manning and Banning Garrett

13A. Extended Deterrence in Northeast Asia: Keep a Cool 30. and Air-Sea Battle by Ben Schreer Head and Maintain a High Profile by David Santoro

1003 Bishop Street, Suite 1150, Honolulu, HI 96813 Tel: (808) 521-6745 Fax: (808) 599-8690 Email: [email protected] Web Page: www.pacforum.org 30A. The US Rebalancing to Asia: ’s Maritime Dilemma by Ristian Atriandi Supriyanto 48. China Plays “Her Power” Card in “Liyuan Style” by Yujing Shentu 31. Xi and Abe on the Brink: Can the US Help Avert Armed Conflict? by Kerry Gershaneck 49. Okinawa – Look to ! by Grant Newsham

32. Obama-Park Summit: Building a Better Vision by Ralph 50. Timor-Leste: A Fragile Peace by Loro Horta A. Cossa 51. Start Thinking Now About Transitional Justice in a Post- 33. Edges Toward Change, But Not Yet by Peter Transition North Korea by Oknam Yi and David Sungjae Drysdale Hong

34. Comparative Connections Summaries by Carl Baker 52. The Fragile and Vulnerable Foundation of the Sino-US Relationship by Hoang Anh Tuan 35. Why is Needed in ICAO by David Brown 52R. China’s Great Power Mentality and Its Diplomatic 36. US-China Strategic Cooperation: Progress Continues, but Vision for the 21st Century by Chung Young-june Disagreements Remain by Ralph A. Cossa, Brad Glosserman and David Santoro 53. China’s Shift to Toughness on Maritime Claims – One Year Later by Robert Sutter and Chin-Hao Huang 37. Abe’s Dilemmas by Brad Glosserman 54. US-Japan Ties: Innovate or Enervate in a Rebalanced 38. China’s Missed Opportunity at the Shangri-La Dialogue Region by Nicole Forrester by Bonnie S. Glaser 55. China Debates DPRK Policy by Ren Xiao 38A. Sunnylands: The Obama-Xi Summit by Stephen Noerper 55R. South Korean Debates on China’s North Korean Policy: 39. Japan- Strategic Ties: Time To Move Beyond Mere Is President Park Listening? by Sukjoon Yoon Words by Sourabh Gupta 56. Vietnam’s President Visiting the White House to Talk 40. A ‘New Type of Great Power Relations’? Hardly. by Brad Strategy by Murray Hiebert and Phoebe De Padua Glosserman 57. Fishing Wars: Competition for South China Sea’s 40A. US-China New Pattern of Great-Power Relations & The Resources by Lucio Blanco Pitlo III Times, They Are A-Changing by Richard Bush and Pier Luigi Zanatta 58. Finding a Balance in the Indian Ocean Region by Jeffrey Payne 40B. “A New Type of Great-Power Relations” and the Implications for South Korea by Sukjoon Yoon 59. The Asia-Pacific’s “Balance of Relations” and Dangerous Choices by Satu Limaye 40C. The Obama-Xi Summit: Whither ASEAN? by Julio Amador III 60. Abenomics and Japan’s Defense Priorities by Tiago Mauricio 41. China Comes Around? by Jeff M. Smith 61. Overrated Significance of the Sino-Russia “Joint-Sea 42. Always Ready, Always There: Marines and the Pacific 2013” Exercise? by Chang Ching Rebalance by Terry Robling 62. Surfing the Waves of Nuclear Change in Myanmar by 43. Triangulation and Trustpolitik by James J. Przystup David Santoro

44. Will the “Oil and Gas Revolution” Pass China By? by 63. The United States, China, and Nuclear Arms Control: Jonathan Chanis Time for a Creative Spark by Philippe de Koning and Tong Zhao 45. Abe’s Half Year: Maintaining Hope for Situation after Election by Kazuhiko Togo 64. China’s “Surgical” Human Rights Crackdown by Robert Blohm 46. Taiwan and Sunnylands: The Dog That Didn’t Bark by Robert M. Hathaway 65. A Farewell to Grandiosity? Practical Cooperation and the ADMM-Plus by See Seng Tan 47. Ambitious Periphery Can Strengthen the Core by Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi and Seongho Hong 65R. Don’t Underestimate the ADMM+ by Brian Harding 1003 Bishop Street, Suite 1150, Honolulu, HI 96813 Tel: (808) 521-6745 Fax: (808) 599-8690 Email: [email protected] Web Page: www.pacforum.org

66. Post-Arab Spring: Political Transitions in Retreat? by 87. Chinese Announcement of the Air Defense Identification Mely Caballero-Anthony Zone – What Follows? by Yoichiro Sato

67. Japan-China Maritime Confidence Building and 87A. Complicating the Complex: China’s ADIZ by Lowell Communications Mechanisms by James J. Przystup, John Bautista and Julio Amador III Bradford and James Manicom 87B. Why Did South Korea Need to Revise the KADIZ? by 68. Binding China by Zhengxu Wang Sukjoon Yoon

69. An Era of the ADMM-Plus? Unique Achievements and 88. New Thinking on Futenma Replacement by Kiyoshi Challenges by Michito Tsuruoka Sugawa

70. Australia under Abbott: What it Means for the Region by 89. From Russia Without Love: Russia Resumes Weapons Sam Bateman Sales to China by Loro Horta

71. The “Power Transition”: A Spot Check by Denny Roy 90. North Korean Regime Change by Ralph A. Cossa

72. Comparative Connections Summaries 91. Importance of Jeju Civilian-Military Port by Sung Chan Kim and Seok-ho Kang 73. The New Chairman of the JCS and South Korea’s Evolving Military Strategy by Sukjoon Yoon Support the 10th Anniversary of our Young Leaders Program by sponsoring a table or purchasing a ticket to 74. Pogo was Right! By Ralph A. Cossa our Board of Governors’ Dinner on Feb. 25, 2013. Donations of any amount are also welcome. Email 75. South Korea and a New Nationalism in an Era of Strength [email protected] or call +1 (808) 521- and Prosperity by Steven Denney and Karl Friedhoff 6745 for more information.

76. Of Symbols and Substance by Elina Noor

76A. Obama’s Summit Absence Needs to be Put in Season’s Greetings and Perspective by Thitinan Pongsudhirak Happy New Year from all of us at

77. US-Japan “2+2” Statement – Breaking New Ground? by PACIFIC FORUM CSIS

Yuki Tatsumi

78. Body Language: A Sign of ROK-Japan Relations by Stephanie Nayoung Kang

79. Trying to Mitigate Japan’s History Dilemma by Robert Dujarric

80. The Path to a New Type of Great Power Relations by Patrick M. Cronin

81. China’s New “State Security Committee”: Questions Ahead by Yun Sun

82. Super-typhoon Haiyan: ASEAN’s Katrina Moment? by Euan Graham

83. The China Challenge and the US-Japan Alliance by Brad Glosserman

84. Pacify Tensions Before They Boil Over by Farish Noor

85. Building Peace and Security in the Asia-Pacific by Muthiah Alagappa

86. Impasse in Japan-Korea Relations is an Opportunity for Resolution by Kazuhiko Togo 1003 Bishop Street, Suite 1150, Honolulu, HI 96813 Tel: (808) 521-6745 Fax: (808) 599-8690 Email: [email protected] Web Page: www.pacforum.org