The Japan Times Wednesday, July 16, 2014 9 opinion Putin fails as a grand strategist U.S. policy triggered latest border crisis

William A. Nitze and other valuable resources. Russia has duced national prospects and interna- TED Washington neither the people nor the capital to de- tional influence. RALL The Globalist velop these resources on its own. Putin does have a geostrategic alter- Climate change is making these re- native. Russia could enter into a broad Vladimir Putin has tied the West in sources more accessible by opening up framework agreement with Japan. Such knots over the annexation of Crimea northern sea lanes and shortening the a deal would provide the financial re- New York and the destabilization of Ukraine. harsh winter season. The Russian popu- sources, technology and expertise nec- Those actions have won him great popu- lation in this vast region is not just small, essary for the economic development of If you’re reading this, you probably fol- larity in Russia for standing up to the but also declining. Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far low the news. So you’ve probably heard West as the champion of Russian na- Moscow’s strategy to control the re- East. A critical element of this agree- of the latest iteration of the “crisis at the tional greatness. Nevertheless, Putin is gion has relied on using centrally ap- ment would be ironclad guarantees to border”: tens of thousands of children, failing as a grand strategist. pointed governors — locally elected respect Russia’s sovereignty. The eco- many of them unaccompanied by an After all, Russia’s most serious geopo- ones have shown dangerous separatist nomic and geostrategic benefits of such adult, crossing the desert from Mexico litical challenges do not lie to the West. tendencies — and widely dispersed se- an agreement to Japan would be great. into the United States, where they sur- The United States and Europe will never curity forces. Russia could probably get Japan to render to the Border Patrol in hope of accept the annexation of Crimea de jure, When one compares these efforts and pay for, or at least finance, critical infra- being allowed to remain here perma- but have already signaled their accep- personnel resources to those of neigh- structure, provision of public services nently. Immigration and Customs En- tance de facto. boring regions and countries, it is clear and even national security enhance- forcement’s detention and hearing The signature of an association agree- that there is a power vacuum. That vacu- ments that Russia otherwise could not system has been overwhelmed by the ment between Ukraine and the Europe- um will eventually be filled. afford. The agreement would have to be surge of children and, in some cases, an Union may infuriate Putin. It may The natural candidate to fill it is implemented in stages over decades. their parents. The Obama administra- also undermine his pet project of creat- China. There is already a growing Chi- Still, a fast start would probably be tion has asked Congress to approve new ing a Eurasian Economic Union. It does nese population engaged in trade and enough to check any designs by China, funding to speed up processing and de- not, however, threaten core Russian na- agriculture on the Russian side of the particularly with the international sup- portations of these illegal immigrants. tional interests. Amur River. port discussed below. Even if you’ve followed this story Moreover, despite initial sanctions As Chinese penetration of the region Such an agreement would not only closely, you probably haven’t heard the and a chilling of relations, both are anx- increases, local Chinese will increasing- serve Russia’s core interests by protect- depressing backstory — the reason so ious to maintain cooperation with Rus- ly look to Beijing for “protection.” Clum- ing its sovereignty and strengthening its many Central Americans are sending sia on issues such as arms control, Iran sy Russian attempts to assert control will economy. It would also serve Japan’s their children on a dangerous thousand- sanctions, space, the environment and be met with ultimatums from China. core interests by giving its economy and mile journey up the spine of Mexico, governance of the Arctic. They would Throw in a few incidents, a few power- society a badly needed boost in growth where they ride atop freight trains, en- work. Instead, we’re talking about peo- a downward death spiral of drug-related also like to restore more normal trade hungry local leaders under the sway of and confidence. dure shakedowns by corrupt police and ple from Central American nations dev- bloodshed and political revenge killings and investment relations if and when Chinese money, as well as tactical inter- At least equally critical is that such a face rapists, bandits and other preda- astated by a century of American that crashed the economy, brought an circumstances permit. vention by the Red Army to protect Chi- Russia-Japan deal would check China’s tors. (Check out the excellent 2004 film colonialism and imperialism, much of end to law, order and civil society, and Most critically, neither the U.S. nor nese citizens — and you realize one geopolitical ambitions. That, in turn, “Maria Full of Grace.”) that intervention surprisingly recent. now has some analysts calling it a Europe has any interest in acquiring, oc- thing quickly: The “People’s Republic of would take pressure off the South China NPR and other mainstream news out- Central American refugees are merely “failed state” along the lines of Somalia cupying or exploiting sovereign territory Eastern Siberia” is a step away from Sea, to the benefit of the U.S. and its al- lets are parroting the White House, transiting through Mexico. and Afghanistan during the 1990s. of the Russian Federation. The same being born. Moscow would attempt to lies, particularly Australia. which blames unscrupulous “coyotes” “The unaccompanied children cross- “Zelaya’s overthrow created a security cannot be said about Russia’s south and retain control. It would not succeed in Given its adversarial relationship with (human smugglers) for “lying to parents, ing the border into the United States are vacuum. Military and police were now east, where Putin’s real strategic chal- the face of Chinese military power and Japan and historical ties with China, telling them if they put their kids in the leaving behind mainly three Central focused more on political protest. It led lenges lie. financial resources. South Korea’s role in this new arrange- hands of traffickers and get to the Unit- American countries, Honduras, El Sal- to a freeze in international aid that To the south, Moscow must deal with The details of how Chinese control ment would have to be handled with ed States that they will be able to stay.” vador and Guatemala. The first two are markedly worsened socio-economic a rapidly growing Muslim population. over Eastern Russia might be achieved is delicacy and finesse. True: The coyotes are saying that in among the world’s most violent and all conditions,” Mark Ungar, professor of Aspirations for greater autonomy and less important than the recognition that The U.S. should be willing to use its order to gin up business. three have deep poverty, according to a political science at Brooklyn College even independence have been crushed the dynamic balance of forces in the re- influence in the region to provide the Also true: U.S. law has changed, and Pew Research report based on Depart- and the City University of New York, told by brutal repression and rule by Russian gion will organically lead to this result. necessary international support for the many of these kids have a strong legal ment of Homeland Security (DHS) in- The International Business Times. puppets. The savagery with which Putin Russia could prevent it with the intro- agreement while avoiding an open con- case for asylum. Unfortunately U.S. offi- formation,” reports NBC News. “The 2009 coup, asserts [Tulane] pro- laid waste to Grozny and subdued the duction of a sufficient counterforce. flict with China. cials are ignoring the law. “El Salvador ranked second in terms fessor Aaron Schneider, gave the Hon- rest of Chechnya will not soon be forgot- Putin has shown no sign that he recog- Unfortunately Putin is so obsessed The sad truth is that this “crisis at the of homicides in Latin America in 2011, duran military more political and ten. The psychological impact of this nizes what is happening, not to speak of with Russia gaining power and respect border” is yet another example of and it is still high on the list. Honduras, economic leverage, at the same time as treatment in Muslim territories has been identifying a sufficient counterforce. as an alternative civilization to the West “blowback.” Blowback is an unintended Guatemala and El Salvador are among the state and political elites lost their le- compounded by overt racism — the The gain to China would be great and that he is missing the big picture. In- negative consequence of U.S. political, the poorest nations in Latin America. gitimacy, resources and the capacity to dark underside of Russian nationalism. the loss to Russia equally great. China’s stead, he will be drawn further into a re- military and/or economic intervention Thirty percent of Hondurans, 17 percent govern large parts of the country.” The civil disorder and terrorism that government would gain privileged ac- jectionist alliance with Syria, Iran and overseas — when something we did in of Salvadorans and 26 percent of Guate- El Salvador and Guatemala, also nar- have resulted from Russia’s actions do cess to valuable resources. China’s peo- China. He has already signed a natural the past comes back to bite us in the ass. malans live on less than $2 a day.” co-states devastated by decades of U.S. not yet pose a threat to Russian control ple would gain virgin territory into gas export deal with China on terms fa- 9/11 is the classic example; arming The fact that Honduras is the biggest support for oppressive, corrupt right- of its Muslim population. However, they which tens of millions of Chinese con- vorable to China. and funding radical Islamists in the source of the exodus jumped out at me. wing dictatorships, are suffering similar are bound to grow worse over time, con- fronted with polluted air, soil and water Mideast and South Asia who were less That’s because, in 2009, the U.S. govern- conditions. suming scarce resources and diverting could move. William A. Nitze is a trustee at the Aspen grateful for our help than angry at the ment — under — tacitly supported a Talk about brass! The U.S. does every- the Kremlin’s attention from other China would greatly enhance its posi- Institute and serves on the Advisory Board U.S.’ simultaneous backing for oppres- military coup that overthrew the demo- thing it can to screw up Central America pressing problems. tion as the dominant power in East Asia of the Krasnow Institute for Advanced sive governments (The House of Saud, cratically elected president of Honduras. — and then acts surprised when desper- The most serious challenge for Putin and gain leverage in its geostrategic Study at George Mason University and as Saddam, Assad, etc.) in the region. “Washington has a very close rela- ate people show up at its front gate try- and Russia lies to the East. Eastern Sibe- competition with the U.S. and its allies. president of the Committee for the More recent cases include U.S. sup- tionship with the Honduran military, ing to escape the (U.S.-caused) carnage. ria and the Russian Far East contain a Russia would be instantly reduced to a Republic. © 2014 The Globalist port for Islamist insurgents in Libya and which goes back decades,” The Guard- Letting the kids stay — along with cornucopia of timber, oil, gas, minerals second-rank power, with greatly re- Syria, which destabilized both countries ian noted at the time. their families — is less than the least we and led to the murders of U.S. consular “During the 1980s, the U.S. used bases could do. officials in Benghazi, and the rise of in Honduras to train and arm the Con- Kremlin’s expensive trip down memory lane ISIL, the guerrilla army that imperils the tras, Nicaraguan paramilitaries who be- Ted Rall, syndicated writer and political U.S.-backed Maliki regime in Baghdad, came known for their atrocities in their cartoonist, is the author of “After We Kill respectively. war against the Sandinista government You, We Will Welcome You Back As Leonid Bershidsky Confusing the issue for casual Ameri- in neighboring Nicaragua.” Honored Guests: Unembedded in Berlin can news consumers is that the current Honduras wasn’t paradise under Afghanistan,” out Sept. 2. Bloomberg border crisis doesn’t involve the usual President Manuel Zelaya. Since the © 2014 Ted Rall Mexicans traveling north in search of coup, however, the country has entered Russian President Vladimir Putin is pre- paring to spend billions of dollars on a bizarre trip into the Soviet past, restart- ing construction on the storied and ill- How World War I inspired independent India starred Baikal-Amur Mainline railroad. Sadly Putin’s nostalgia will come at great cost to the country’s future. Chandrahas Choudhury home. And many foreign archives are had studied law in England and then In the late 1990s, the American writer New Delhi making available their newly digitized supported the British in the Boer War in Fen Montaigne traveled across Russia Bloomberg records of the war, allowing us to experi- South Africa, was very much a loyal sub- for his fly-fishing book, “Hooked.” ence vicariously the life of the subconti- ject of the British Empire. By 1918, de- Among other adventures, he rode on the This month marks the 100th anniversary nental soldier marveling at the streets of spite his already considered views on BAM, a major railroad through the wil- of the start of World War I. Alongside the London, arousing wonder in the small nonviolence, Gandhi was led by his as- derness of Eastern Siberia and the Far many interesting new views of the war towns of France, holding to the rules of sessment of the Great War to argue that East that was meant to unlock the area’s that historiography and hindsight have caste even when laid up in a hospital in the British were fighting for a just cause, vast natural resources. made available a hundred years on, Brighton, and trying to communicate and further that recruitment in the war BAM was conceived under Stalin in there’s also a new awareness of aspects with his loved ones back home. efforts would improve India’s own mar- the 1930s but built in the 1970s and of the war’s history that were under-re- In this last endeavor, he often faced tial capabilities, long hobbled by the Raj. 1980s at a cost of $25 billion, paid for garded at the time. considerable resistance from the very The scholar Aravind Ganachari mainly by oil exports. It’s been almost forgotten that more powers that had dropped him down into quotes a letter to Gandhi in December By the time the BAM became fully than 1 million subjects of undivided co- Europe, as several letters recently post- 1917 from E.L.L. Hammond, the chief functional in the late 1980s, “the party lonial India (now India, Pakistan and ed online by the British Library reveal. recruiting officer in the backward Indian was over,” Montaigne wrote. The Soviet Bangladesh) fought in the Great War for For fear that the Indian sepoy’s letters province of Bihar. This reveals much Union’s collapse meant there was no the Allies, whisked into the battlefields might give away important information about economic incentives held out to money to build mining towns and facto- of Flanders and Gallipoli by a massive or stoke civilian unrest back in India, all poor Indian peasants to induce them to ries along the mainline. recruitment drive in the east by their letters from the front were subject to in- fight in a distant location for a king he “Someday, no doubt, capitalist Russia British masters. This was a force much spection by the Censor of Indian Mails, had never seen and a cause about which would make use of the BAM,” wrote bigger than Britain’s own expeditionary which commissioned a translation of he had no clue. Montaigne. “But as my train chugged army, and one that literally often served random samples for inspection. “We give an advance of Rs 30. The along, I saw only a derailed Communist as cannon fodder in a conflict that horri- These snippets are for the most part men get Rs 15 per month while in India, dream.” glory. Deep down, Putin appears con- for the next three years. There are other fied even its principal movers with its what survives today of these fascinating and Rs 20 in overseas. Rs 3 capitation fee Now, as Montaigne predicted, the vinced that Russia’s past is also its fu- Soviet-scale plans, too, like the 2018 soc- brutality and toll on both combatant letters. In one letter, a soldier recalls a for each man brought in,” Hammond project is being revived, albeit not by ture, so why not finance the Soviet cer World Cup, which, according to re- and civilian life. tale suggesting that a woman whose writes to Gandhi. “Cannot you in course capitalists. The Russian government will revival with money stockpiled against a cent estimates, requires 620 billion Indian troops carried out Allied com- husband is away at war, even if she loves of your tour point out the great econom- finance construction with oil revenue rainy day? The trip down memory lane rubles. The state-controlled natural gas mands in key battles in France, Belgium, him dearly, cannot remain chaste for ic opportunity now offered? If one man that was supposed to be locked up in the can even be cloaked in modern rhetoric: monopoly Gazprom intends to invest Mesopotamia and East Africa, but when more than three months — a worrying from a household goes he can remit Rs 8 $87.9 billion National Wellbeing Fund, “The National Wellbeing Fund is now tens of billions of dollars in developing the history of the war came to be writ- thought for him, as he has been away for per month to his family and still have Rs whose primary purpose was to make seen as an instrument of stimulating East Siberian gas fields and delivering ten, it was mainly that of its impact on a year and a half. 100 or 200 according to the duration of sure the pension system had enough economic growth, investment,” Deputy the fuel to China. That project, too, may European society and civilization, the Soldiers became aware of the suspi- the war as undisbursed pay to start him money to support an aging population. Finance Minister Konstantin Vysh- require direct state funding, though “center” of the world. cious eye of the censor and devised in life on his return.” The Russian Railroads monopoly will kovsky recently told Bloomberg News. Gazprom says it can cope on its own. Adrift in a strange land where few elaborate strategies to convey meaning. Of course, there was to be no return to spend 150 billion rubles ($4.4 billion) True, Russia is having trouble with Such enormous projects fuel both could speak his language, the often illit- In perhaps the most famous metaphor a life of greater economic security for from the fund on increasing the capacity economic growth. The economics min- short-term growth and corruption. erate Indian sepoy, or soldier, could not in this small archive, Khan Muhammad many. About 75,000 Indians lost their of BAM and the Trans-Siberian Rail- istry expects investment to drop 2.4 per- Spending on railroad or pipeline con- speak back to his master or leave a pri- of the 40th Pathans regiment wrote that lives in World War I; they are memorial- road. cent this year, and capital flight may struction in East Siberia is not easy to vate mark on his age. “the black pepper which has come from ized today at the India Gate in New As much as 60 percent of the National reach $100 billion. control. Putin needs the growth to stay What passing-bells for these who die India is all used up,” and more will Delhi. Wellbeing Fund is now earmarked for Putin’s government sees public in power and retain his sky-high popu- as cattle? therefore soon be requisitioned. “Other- One of the effects of the Great War infrastructure projects of this kind. Two spending as its main recession-prevent- larity as the remnants of Russia’s capital- — Only the monstrous anger of the guns. wise there would be very little red pep- was to break up the grand European other projects — the construction of a ing tool: Foreign investors will shun ist economy shrink. His businessmen So wrote Wilfred Owen in his famous per remaining.” The red pepper refers to empires of the 19th century and bring in ring road around greater Moscow and a Russia for a while because of its actions friends at Russian Railroads and Gaz- poem “Anthem For Doomed Youth.” But the British. a new age of nationalism. These winds high-speed rail link between Moscow in Ukraine, and domestic ones are pessi- prom’s pipeline-building companies one doubts he saw in this scene any se- Other aspects of the Indian effort in of change would soon reach India, al- and Kazan — have been approved for an mistic because Putin’s Soviet project is need the government contracts. As for poys or jawans. The asymmetries of race Europe and the massive recruitment lowing for a new self-conception of additional 300 billion rubles in financ- not business-friendly. Apart from milk- Russia, it is being told what it needs, just and empire were inevitably extended drive back in India — the numerical India — and, eventually, a wider view of ing from the fund. ing the pension system, there are plans like in Soviet times. even to the profound experiences of strength of the Indian Army increased World War I — to come into being. Together with Russia’s annexation of to raise the value-added tax and allow shock and awe, sorrow and pity, on the fourfold from 1914 to 1918 — surprise Crimea, with its history of World War II regions to introduce sales taxes. Leonid Bershidsky, a Bloomberg View battlefield and in the trenches. even Indians today. For instance, a key Chandrahas Choudhury, a novelist, is heroism and memories of cloudless hol- The finance ministry says developing contributor, is a Berlin-based writer who is To commemorate the centenary of figure in Britain’s recruitment efforts in based in New Delhi. His novel “Arzee the idays on Black Sea beaches, the BAM Crimea will require about 90 billion ru- the author of three novels and two the Great War, though, many new initia- India was Mohandas Gandhi, later the Dwarf” is published by New York Review project illustrates Putin’s growing nos- bles a year in subsidies and a separate nonfiction books. tives at historical reconstruction of the greatest anti-colonial strategist of the Books. talgia for the Soviet Union’s might and 100 billion ruble investment program Indian war effort have started back 20th century. In his youth, Gandhi, who

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