DISARMAMENT DIGEST

Tuesday 1 June 2021

NEWS

UN: Southeast Asian nations want to drop proposed UN call for Myanmar arms embargo Nine Southeast Asian nations have proposed watering down a U.N. General Assembly draft resolution on Myanmar, including removing a call for an arms embargo on the country, in a bid to win the unanimous support of the 193-member body. Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam wrote to Liechtenstein, which has drafted the resolution, after a planned vote last week was postponed at the last minute. In the letter dated May 19 and seen by Reuters on Friday, the Southeast Asian countries said the draft “cannot command the widest possible support in its current form, especially from all countries directly affected in the region” and that further negotiations are needed “to make the text acceptable, especially to the countries most directly affected and who are now engaged in efforts to resolve the situation.” “It is also our firm conviction that if a General Assembly resolution on the situation in Myanmar is to be helpful to countries in ASEAN, then it needs to be adopted by consensus,” the countries wrote, referring to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. (CNBC) See also: Asean Seeks Drop of U.N. Call for Myanmar Arms Embargo (Bloomberg)

Nuclear: UN watchdog: Access to key Iranian data lacking since Feb 23 The United Nations’ atomic watchdog hasn’t been able to access data important to monitoring Iran’s nuclear program since late February when the Islamic Republic started restricting international inspections of its facilities, the agency said Monday. While the IAEA and Iran earlier acknowledged the restrictions limited access to surveillance cameras at Iranian facilities, Monday’s report indicated they went much further. The IAEA acknowledged it could only provide an estimate of Iran’s overall nuclear stockpile as it continues to enrich uranium at its highest level ever. (Associated Press) See also: Iran Nuclear-Fuel Production Plummets After Natanz Explosion (Wall Street Journal) See also: UN nuclear watchdog 'concerned' over undeclared Iran sites (France24) See also: Iran Fails To Explain Uranium Traces Found At Several Sites – IAEA (Iran International)

Missile Defense: Turkey to Send Russian Missile Experts Home in Signal to Biden Turkey said it will send home Russian missile experts overseeing the S-400 air defense technology that has strained ties with the United States, addressing one of Washington’s concerns with the system while ruling out scrapping it altogether. The remarks, which come ahead of a planned meeting between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and President Joe Biden on the sidelines of a NATO summit in Brussels mid-June, signal Ankara’s readiness to compromise on one element of U.S. concerns. Washington has said Turkey should end the presence of Russian personnel in the country to help with training and assembly of the missiles. But Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, who said the system would be under Turkish control when the experts left, reiterated Ankara would not budge on Washington’s broader demand to get rid of the missiles in order for related U.S. sanctions to be lifted. (Bloomberg) See also: Turkey slams calls for not using Russian S-400 air defense systems as unacceptable (TASS)

Drones: Autonomous drones may have ‘hunted down’ and attacked troops in Libya without human control – UN report A UN report found that autonomous drones armed with explosive devices may have “hunted down” fleeing rebel fighters in Libya last year. If true, the report chronicles the world’s first true robot-on-human attack. According to the report, anti-government Libyan National fighters, under military commander Khalifa Haftar, were retreating last March following an unsuccessful attack on Tripoli, when they ran into a swarm of terrifying aerial opponents. They were “hunted down” by unmanned drones, as well as “lethal autonomous weapons systems,” the latter of which can be programmed by controllers to seek out and attack targets, and carry out these instructions even if communications with the controllers are severed. It is unclear whether the drones were in contact with human controllers during these reported attacks, or whether they were directly responsible for any casualties or deaths. Were they operating autonomously, the scenario described in the report would likely mark a horrifying milestone: the first recorded incidence of truly independent robots attacking humans on the battlefield. However, the report does not specify what level of autonomy the robots were functioning under. (RT) See also: MILITARY DRONES MAY HAVE ATTACKED HUMANS FOR FIRST TIME WITHOUT BEING INSTRUCTED TO, UN REPORT SAYS (Independent UK)

Emerging Technologies: To Defeat Advanced Anti-Ship Missiles, Royal Navy Turns to AI The Royal Navy is using artificial intelligence for the first time at sea in a bid to defeat missile attacks. Leading-edge software is being tested at sea against live missiles during the largest exercise of its type off the coasts of Scotland and Norway. Involving more than 3,000 military personnel, exercise Formidable Shield tests the ability of NATO warships to detect, track and defeat incoming missiles, from sea-skimming weapons traveling at twice the speed of sound to ballistic missiles. The Royal Navy warships, HMS Lancaster and Dragon are trialing artificial intelligence and machine learning applications which offer a glimpse of the future of air defence at sea. (The Maritime Executive)

Military Affairs: Russian military to add 20 new units in country's west to counter NATO 's military will form 20 new units in the country's west this year to counter what it claims is a growing threat from NATO, the defense minister said Monday. Sergei Shoigu made the announcement at a meeting with top military officials. He pointed to a growing number of flights by U.S. strategic bombers near Russia's borders, deployments of NATO warships and increasingly frequent and major drills by alliance forces. Asked Monday about Russia's plans, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg noted that "Russia over the last years has invested heavily in new, modern military capabilities, from conventional to nuclear weapon systems" and "has been willing to use military force against neighbors, in Georgia, in Ukraine." (CBS News)

Military Affairs: NATO ministers meet to prepare summit, Afghan withdrawal NATO’s foreign and defense ministers were meeting Tuesday to lay the groundwork for the military alliance’s first summit with U.S. President Joe Biden, setting aside four tumultuous years with the Trump administration. The ministers will discuss a hefty communique being drafted for the June 14 summit in Brussels, which will reaffirm the unity of the 30-nation security alliance — which has been riven by infighting in recent years — and focus on future threats and challenges. (Associated Press)

Military Affairs: EU military mission to Mozambique may be operating in months, bloc says The European Union could have a military training mission in place in Mozambique within several months, the bloc's foreign policy chief said on Friday, helping the southern African country tackle Islamist insurgents. The problem is to find additional countries besides Portugal to supply troops, he said, speaking ahead of a summit of EU defence ministers in Lisbon. At a press conference after the summit, Portuguese defence minister Joao Cravinho said: "No-one said they did not think it was a good idea". But neither Borrell nor Cravinho specified whether any other countries had committed to participating, saying only that seven or eight had expressed willingness. "First the mission must be formally approved, and then the countries who will participate will have the opportunity to declare what they have said privately," Cravinho said. (Reuters)

Military Expenditure: The Missile Defene Agency’s $8.9B budget request focuses on next- gen defense The Missile Defense Agency’s $8.9 billion fiscal 2022 budget request focuses heavily on the development of future capabilities including a next-generation interceptor for homeland missile defense, a hypersonic defensive capability and space-based tracking critical to detecting challenging threats, according to budget documents released May 28. The budget request is down slightly from last year’s request of $9.2 billion, but Congress in its FY21 spending bill injected $1.3 billion into the agency’s budget. For next year, the agency is requesting $7.16 billion in research, development, test and evaluation dollars, $1.24 billion in procurement and $502 million in operations and maintenance. Some of the most significant efforts in FY22 include $926.1 million to develop a next-generation interceptor for the U.S. Ground-Based Midcourse Defense System positioned in Alaska and California. (Defense News)

Relevant Diplomacy: North Korea hits out after U.S. okayed South to build more powerful missiles North Korea said Monday the U.S. allowing South Korea to build more powerful missiles was an example of the U.S.’s hostile policy against the North, warning that it could lead to an “acute and instable situation” on the Korean Peninsula. It’s North Korea’s first response to the May 21 summit between the leaders of the United States and South Korea, during which the U.S. ended decades-long restrictions that capped South Korea’s missile development and allowed its ally to develop weapons with unlimited ranges. The accusation of U.S. policy being hostile to North Korea matters because it said it won’t return to talks and would enlarge its nuclear arsenal as long as U.S. hostility persists. But the latest statement was still attributed to an individual commentator, not a government body, suggesting North Korea may still want to leave room for potential diplomacy with the Biden administration. (NBC News) See also: North Korea Accuses U.S. of ‘Shameful Double-Dealing’ on Missile Policy (The New York Times) See also: North Korea accuses US of ‘hostile act’ in terminating ROK missile limits (NK News)

Relevant Diplomacy: West African bloc suspends Mali over coup, but no new sanctions West African regional bloc ECOWAS on Sunday suspended Mali's membership in response to last week's coup and said authorities must stick to a timetable for a return to democracy, but stopped short of imposing new sanctions. Leaders of the 15-member Economic Community of West African States held an emergency summit in Ghana's capital Accra to agree a response to the Malian military's ouster of a president and prime minister for the second time in nine months. Mali's neighbours and international powers fear the latest revolt will jeopardise a commitment to hold a presidential election next February, and undermine a regional fight against Islamist militants. In a communique after the summit, ECOWAS said Mali's membership in the bloc was suspended with immediate effect. (Reuters)

Relevant Diplomacy: Egypt's intelligence chief holds truce talks with Hamas in Gaza Egypt's intelligence chief met Hamas leaders in Gaza on Monday to try to bolster a ceasefire between the Palestinian militant group and Israel and to discuss reconstruction plans following the recent hostilities, Egyptian and Palestinian officials said. The visit was the first by an Egyptian intelligence chief to the enclave since the early 2000s. "The discussion is focused on ways to cement the calm and Gaza reconstruction plans following the recent Israeli aggression," said a Hamas official, who asked not to be named. Hamas officials, led by Gaza chief Yehya Al- Sinwar, would urge Cairo to pressure Israel to stop "its assaults against our people in Jerusalem and Sheikh Jarrah," he said. Kamel's visit is seen as an effort by Cairo to regain a more vital role in mediation between Israel and Hamas and revive the stalled Israel-Palestinian peace process. (Reuters)

Relevant Diplomacy: Amid divisions, ASEAN leaders plan Myanmar visit this week The chair and secretary-general of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) plan to travel to Myanmar this week even as the 10-nation bloc remains divided on how to respond to the military coup there, four diplomatic sources said. Erywan Yusof, the second minister for foreign affairs for Brunei, ASEAN's chair this year, and the bloc's secretary-general Lim Jock Hoi, also from Brunei, are scheduled to meet this week with leaders of the junta, among other stakeholders, the sources, who asked not to be identified, said. It is unclear if the pair plan to meet with opponents of the junta, many of whom are imprisoned or in hiding. The planned trip comes more than five weeks after ASEAN leaders announced a "five-point consensus" to end violence; promote dialogue; deliver aid; appoint a special envoy; and send a delegation headed by the envoy to Myanmar to meet "with all parties concerned". However, the special envoy has yet to be appointed amid divisions within ASEAN over the best person or persons for the job, the envoy's mandate and the length of the envoy's term. (Reuters)

OPINION & ANALYSIS

Is Nuclear Secrecy Worth the Costs? The scientific discovery of nuclear fission just before World War II led some to fear the worst: Adolf Hitler with a nuclear weapon. The fear that the science behind nuclear weapons could cause catastrophe, and therefore needed to be kept secret, caused tensions within the scientific community. Historian and Professor Alex Wellerstein addresses the controversies around the need for secrecy of the atomic bomb in his new book Restricted Data: The History of Nuclear Secrecy in the United States. At the onset, the tension within the scientific community rested on the idea that “if you start imposing secrecy you’re essentially going to gut the scientific process and corrupt it, on the other hand, [scientists were] desperately afraid of the consequences of this information circulating,” Within the nuclear space, this precedent of secrecy has led to a lack of public debate on issues such as presidential sole authority and first-use, key policies that both the public and Congress should discuss. Instead, Wellerstein explains, nuclear discussions make people feel like they are “straying into a dangerous zone.” (Alexandra B. Hall for The National Interest)

The Future of Afghanistan Hinges on American Dollars, Not Troops In April, President Joe Biden announced he would withdraw America’s 2,500 combat troops from Afghanistan before Sept. 11, 2021. Supporters praised the move for finally closing the book on America’s longest war and allowing Washington, in the words of Democratic Senator Tim Kaine, to “refocus American national security on the most pressing challenges we face.” Meanwhile, critics denounced the decision as “reckless and dangerous.” Former secretary of state Hillary Clinton warned it could have “huge consequences,” including a surge in global terrorism and a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. Both sides of this debate, however, tend to exaggerate the importance of the U.S. troop departure. The key to the war in Afghanistan is not American soldiers but American dollars. The Biden administration should couple the withdrawal of soldiers with a long-term commitment to monetary aid which prioritizes sustainability, avoids unrealistic conditions, and shares the burden with foreign donors. (Dominic Tierney for War on the Rocks)

Foreign Actors Are Hacking America’s Democracy What does America’s most notorious conspiracy theory have to do with foreign policy? Quite a lot, it turns out. In recent years, QAnon—a series of theories about the existence of an unaccountable “deep state” within the U.S. government—has garnered growing attention in U.S. politics, and concern from American law enforcement. Officials and experts alike now worry that the movement, while fringe, has contributed to significant radicalization on the part of some segments of the American electorate. Yet, while QAnon is a homegrown phenomenon, its ideas and narratives are being amplified by a host of foreign actors, according to a new study by The Soufan Center. The report, entitled Quantifying the Q Conspiracy, notes that in 2020 foreign influence accounted for some one-fifth of all QAnon-related posts on Facebook. Spikes in foreign-generated posts “can be correlated with events in the United States; respectively, the domestic outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Wayfair Conspiracy, and the Presidential Election,” it outlines. “Throughout 2020, the consistent foreign amplification of QAnon narratives online illustrates that externally driven disinformation efforts have contributed to the efficient spread of conspiracy theories.” (Ilan Berman for The National Interest)

The UK's new legal battle over the Saudi arms trade Last year, the UK government renewed arms sales to Saudi Arabia, despite concerns they could be used against civilians in the war in Yemen. On 22 April 2021, as part of a legal battle over arms control in the UK, Campaign Against the Arms Trade (CAAT) was granted permission to bring a challenge to the High Court against the government for a second time. CAAT's first case began in 2016 when it challenged the UK government's decision to grant licenses for the export of arms to Saudi Arabia for use in Yemen. This legal dispute led to a High Court hearing in February 2017, which ultimately found in favour of the government. CAAT appealed this decision in 2019, and on this issue, the court found in favour of CAAT. The decision forced the government to freeze new licenses and review existing arms licenses granted to the Saudi-led coalition. However, CAAT's victory was short-lived. Following the court's judgement, the UK government conducted an internal review concluding that there was no historic pattern of Saudi breaches. (James Tarik Marriott for The New Arab)

Attack of the drones: The next threat is from above In 2020, and fought a brief but intense war over the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan won a decisive victory in large part to its very effective use of loitering munitions and UAVs against Armenian ground forces, most notably, its armoured vehicles, which proved highly vulnerable. Once Armenia’s air defences were eliminated, the Azeris could operate largely unopposed and made good use of surveillance and targeting provided by higher altitude UAVs to co-ordinate attacks. A key observation was that the low cost of the offensive capability which contrasted sharply with the high cost of modern AFVs. When the cost per kill equation is considered in the context of the use of swarming, the outcomes look alarming for army’s future plans for heavy armour, with $27.1 billion for 450 armoured fighting vehicles under LAND 400 Phase 3, and $2.15 billion spent recently to upgrade army’s main battle tanks under LAND 907 Phase 2. Both of these capabilities will confront a much more challenging operational environment, in which a key concern must be a looming threat of advanced combat UAVs and loitering munitions. (Malcolm Davis for The Australian)

We Know What Space Wars Will Look Like As with the cyber domain, space has become a contested arena and one in which the U.S. has grown heavily dependent. And like cyber, “these space-based capabilities underpin the power of the Joint Force across all domains, they are integral to our deterrent capacity, and they have become a military center of gravity,” Hill said. Gen. David Thompson, Space Force Vice Chief of Space Operations, told the subcommittee, “Both China and Russia are deeply engaged in this competition, aggressively and successfully pursuing newer, better, and more numerous space assets and counter space weapons that demonstrate technological leadership, expand their share of the global space marketplace, and prepare them to negate U.S. space capabilities when called upon in war.” Hill said, “Russia and China view space as critical to modern warfare and see the use of counter space capabilities as both a means of reducing U.S. effectiveness and winning future wars.” The same is said of cyber. However, unlike cyber, where undeclared conflict is taking place on an almost daily basis, space to date has remained relatively peaceful, although weapons are being prepared. (Walter Pincus for the Cipher Brief)

France Likely To Partner India In Developing Six Nuclear-Powered Attack Submarines – Analysis India’s Chief of Defence Staff, General Bipin Rawat, and the Navy Chief, Admiral Karambir Singh, may have their differences over India having a third aircraft carrier (the former not sure of its utility given its cost but the latter determined to acquire it), but their voice is one in strengthening the much-depleted submarine fleet of the Indian Navy. The government’s preoccupation with the Covid-management may have delayed the final decision, but India’s Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) is all set to give its nod for the submarine project, particularly when the Indo-Pacific has become an important strategic frontier, with China expanding and consolidating its naval footprint in the region. If everything goes well, then France seems to have an edge over the US, UK, and Russia in striking a deal for the joint development of six submarines (SSNs) for the Indian Navy, according to reliable sources. Some clear indications would have been out to this effect but the postponement of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to France that was scheduled earlier this month (May) may have delayed the same. (Prakash Nanda for The Eurasian Times)

Four things to know about CBO's nuclear spending report A recent CBO report estimates that, over the next 10 years, U.S. nuclear spending will be 28 percent higher than estimated just two years ago. This led to howls that modernization is proving “far more expensive than anticipated.” Not so fast. The report carries a ton of caveats and footnotes. Here are four things to consider before jumping to conclusions about the cost of nuclear modernization. First, the new report examines a different time period (2021-2030) than the previous one (2019-2028). That makes a huge difference. As the CBO explains, “The higher estimates in this report do not necessarily signal an increase in programs’ total lifetime costs.” Second, requirements have changed over the last two years. CBO attributes the bulk of higher costs projected for 2021-2028 (a period covered by both reports) to new requirements related to nuclear warheads. Third, the CBO includes subjective cost estimates. Fifteen percent of the estimated increase arises from CBO’s decision to add an extra $21 billion to account for “general growth beyond budgeted amounts.” Fourth, CBO includes dubious costs that inflate the numbers, like the costs of sustaining our current nuclear forces on top of their replacement programs. For instance, the CBO lists $4.2 billion for intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) for FY 2021, even though Congress appropriated only about $1.5 billion for the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent program. Considering these four factors, it would be disingenuous to use this report to advocate for cuts to nuclear funding. Delaying programs and deferring costs does not avoid costs; it simply makes everything more expensive in the long run. (Patty-Jane Geller for The Hill)

We need more than a new JCPOA to rein in Iran As the Vienna talks progress, the consensus view is that a new Iran nuclear deal is inevitable, even if the details remain debatable. It is clear that concerns shared by America’s partners in the Gulf are unlikely to materially influence the discussions. The Biden administration has received repeated warnings about the perils and short-sightedness of simply returning to the terms of the original 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) without dealing decisively with Iran’s other destabilizing activities, such as its ballistic missile program and support for regional proxy militias. Simply returning to an inherently unstable JCPOA will not reverse or bury Iran’s advancements in enrichment, nor will it guarantee maximum compliance, especially in terms of transparency. If a reworked JCPOA focused on curbs to Iran’s nuclear program is a foregone conclusion, then the only option left for America’s regional allies is to pressure Washington on a follow-up deal to address Iran’s non-nuclear threats. (Hafed Al-Ghwell for Arab News)

Pakistan leans towards giving US military bases With the US troop withdrawal underway in Afghanistan, speculation is rising that the US and Pakistan are poised to improve military ties – a strategic rapprochement that could raise antenna in both China and India. The US Pentagon has announced it is looking for military bases in the region to monitor and prevent Afghanistan’s re-emergence as a hub of Islamic extremism and anti-US terrorism. The bases would also seek to give the US a strategic hedge against Russia and China filling the vacuum of what is expected to be a largely – if not wholly – Taliban-led Afghanistan after US troops depart. While the US has yet to confirm it has secured new access to Central Asia bases, Pakistan has emerged as a leading candidate considering the US used bases there for much of the 20-year “war on terror” in Afghanistan. Any such move would be controversial and require nuanced language to sell to the Pakistani public. The Pakistan Foreign Office has publicly denied that any “new agreements” have been reached with the US military on base usage. (Salman Rafi Sheikh for Asia Times)

MULTIMEDIA

Hyperbolic Hyper Hype (Podcast) The hype is real. Maybe it’s a branding thing, maybe people forget ballistic missiles are a thing, maybe nobody thinks “glider force” sounds cool. But whatever the reason, people keep calling hypersonic glide vehicles fast compared to existing missile systems. Jeffrey and Aaron discuss hypersonic weapons, what people keep getting wrong about them, and why the D5 missile is so dang cool. (Arm Control Wonk)

The origin of COVID: Did people or nature open Pandora's box at Wuhan? (Online event) Join science journalist Nicholas Wade and Bulletin editor-in-chief John Mecklin in conversation with Bulletin president and CEO Rachel Bronson, as they discuss Wade's groundbreaking article, "The origin of COVID: Did people or nature open Pandora's box at Wuhan?" Together, we will learn how this defining story came to be and why it sparked renewed investigations of a possible lab-leak. (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists)

The UK’s new nuclear posture: What it means for the global nuclear order (Video) Watch the Bulletin virtual program, “The UK’s new nuclear posture: What it means for the global nuclear order” featuring Hans Kristensen and Heather Williams in conversation with Julian Borger. In this conversation, you will hear about how the United Kingdom’s decision to increase their nuclear stockpile limit fits into global trends towards nuclear modernization but also what can be done to keep on the path of disarmament. (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists)

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