FUNCEME - Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government - Brazil
Geographical Location, Dimensions and Boundaries
Towards a Ceara State Drought Policy
Total Area 148,825.6 km2 FUNCEME - Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government - Brazil
CONTEXT BRAZIL AND ITS SEMIARID REGION
Area = 1,561,177.8 km2 (18.26% of Brazil area)
Population = 48 millions of people (28.9% of the Brazil population)
Population density = 30.54 people/km2 (very high for semiarid conditions)
Most of the semiarid population is concentrated in urban areas (60.6%). FUNCEME - Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government - Brazil
CONTEXT RAINFAL AND P/ETP ratio Very high spatio-temporal variability
70% of rainfall occurs between February and May
Potential Evaporation is less than precipitation only in two months (Mar & Apr)
P/ET Hiperarid < 0,03 Arid 0,03 – 0,20 Semiarid 0,21 – 0,50 Dry Subumid 0,51 – 0,65 FUNCEME - Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government - Brazil
CONTEXT GEOLOGY AND SOILS
74% of Ceará has Cristaline embasement
Low-depth soils
Soil losses (agriculture practices in place, rainfall severe events) FUNCEME - Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government - Brazil
Average Inflow INFLOWS Seção de Arneiroz (Histograma Médio)
47.54 low depth soils, cristaline embasement 50 40 which can frequently be seen at the 27.93 30 surface, higher evaporation, a highly 20 9.84 11.52 10 3.26 concentrated rainfall regime 1.63 1.5 0.02 0 0.01 0.08 1.85 0 i v r a l o t v z e a Ju g e Jan F M Abr M Jun A S Out No De
Seasonality of Oros Inflow
400 Mean Median 350 Quantile (75) 300 Quantile (25) 250 Quantile (90) 200 Quantile (10) Ephemeral rivers 150 Flow (m^3/s)Flow
100 run during a few months of the first
50
0 semester 123456789101112 Month
Seasonality of rain determined by N-S migration of the ITCZ Rain Start: ITCZ reaches Southernmost (Feb) + January Cold Fronts Rain End: ITCZ migrates N of Equator (June-July) FUNCEME - Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government - Brazil
Economically Active Population CONTEXT SOCIOECONOMY
GDP by Sector FUNCEME - Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government - Brazil
CONTEXT
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX
Leitosperenizadospol.shp Açudes_pol.shp Limites municipais.shp 0.551 - 0.589 0.589 - 0.619 0.619 - 0.646 0.646 - 0.684 0.684 - 0.786 FUNCEME - Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government - Brazil
TWO DIFFERENT WORLDS IN THE SEMIARID...
ε/ HIDROSYSTEM ε HIDROSYSTEM
Rain feed Linked to the water resources system
Dryland agriculture Irrigated agriculture, industry and human supply
40% Economically active population 60% Economically active population
5% of the Gross Domestic Product 90% of the Gross Domestic Product
Greater vulnerability Minor vulnerability
Spatially difuse Spatially concentrated
Lower income per capita and HDI values Higher income per capita and HDI values FUNCEME - Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government - Brazil
TWO DIFFERENT WORLDS IN THE SEMIARID...
METROPOLITAN AREA INTERIOR OF THE STATE Pop. 3,100,000 (41%) Pop. 4,200,000 (59%) 39% of occupation 61% of occupation 50% Industry and Sevices ~100% of agriculture
62% GDP -->19 bi/year 32% GDP -->7 bi/year
GDP per capita US$ 1400,00 GDP per capita US$500,00
89% of Tax Revenues 11% of Taxe Revenues
More productive Low produtivity FUNCEME - Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government - Brazil
COPING WITH DROUGHTS IN CEARÁ FUNCEME - Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government - Brazil FUNCEME - Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government - Brazil FUNCEME - Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government - Brazil Região Semi-árida - NE
Knowledgement and monitoring our semiarid Cobertura Vegetal Uso da Terra
Solos
Desertificação
Recursos Hídricos
Zoneamento FUNCEME - Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government - Brazil
Type of Climate
Identifying Vulnerabilities FUNCEME - Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government - Brazil
IMA – Municipality Watch Index Relief Programme
Calculated since 2004, IMA is an index to measure the vulnerability of each of the 184 municipalities of Ceará in relation to climatic and agricultural issues. It considers 12 indicators: 1) Agricultural productivity by hectare 2) Agricultural production per capita 3) Use of harvested area with subsistence farming 4) Crop shortfall 5) Proportion of families benefiting from “Bolsa Família” 6) Number of “Seguro Safra” insurances per 100 rural residents 7) Climatology 8) Standard deviation of rainfall 9) Runoff 10) Rainfall distribution index 11) Aridity index 12) Coverage rate of urban water supply FUNCEME - Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government - Brazil
IMA – Municipality Watch Index Relief Programme
n I pm IMA i1 m n
Where: IMAm = IMA to the municipality or city “m”
Ipm = value of the standardized indicator “I”, in the city “m” n = total of selected indicators
Ipm = standardized value of the indicator “I”, in the city “m” I I m V Im = value of the indicator “I”, in the city “m” I pm I = lower value of the indicator “I”, among all cities I V I V -V I+V = higher value of the indicator “I”, among all cities
Obs. In case where lower value indicates less vulnerability and higher value indicates greater vulnerability (for example, crop shortfall index)
I-V = Imin and I+V = Imax; otherwise I+V = Imin and I-V = Imax (for example in case of an index related to agricultural productivity) FUNCEME - Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government - Brazil
According to their IMA, each municipality is classified in four classes of vulnerability:
Class 1: High Vulnerability IMA IMA
Class 2: Medium-High Vulnerability IMA IMA IMA
Class 3: Medium-Low Vulnerability IMA IMA IMA
Class 4: Low Vulnerability IMA IMA FUNCEME - Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government - Brazil FUNCEME - Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government - Brazil FORECASTING SYSTEM
CLIMATE DYNAMICAL DOWNSCALING FORECAST SYSTEM FOR NORDESTE
HISTORICAL DATA PERSISTED GLOBAL •Extended Simulations SST ANOMALIES •Observations Persisted SSTA 10 ensembles PREDICTED SST 1 Mo. lead ANOMALIES ECHAM4.5 Tropical Pacific AGCM (T42) Hydrologic Ocean (LDEO Dynamical Post Models Model) CPTEC (NCEP Dynamical 10 Predicted SSTA Processing Model) GCM (T42) ensembles (NCEP Statistical CA 1-4 Mo. lead Model) Tropical Altantic Ocean (CPTEC Statistical CCA Model) Tropical Indian Ocean (IRI Statistical CCA Model) AGCM INITIAL CONDITIONS Extratropical Oceans RSM97 (60km) (Damped Persistence) UPDATED ENSEMBLES (10+) RAMS (40km) WITH OBSERVED SSTs IRI FUNCEME FUNCEME - Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government - Brazil Inflow/yield forecasts
General Circulation Model Regional Climate Predictors
“Downscaling” Statistical Model Regional Climate Model Or Statistical Model
Hydrologic Model Reservoir Inflows
Reservoir Operation Model
Crop Model Economic Model FUNCEME - Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government - Brazil
Some Actions FUNCEME - Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government - Brazil
PAE/CE – State Programme of Action to Combat Desertification and Mitigating the Efects of Droughts
The overall goal of PAE/CE is to contribute to the coexistence in Semiarid region and environmental sustainability of Caatinga Biome, promoting environmental, social and economic policies aimed at poverty reduction. FUNCEME - Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government - Brazil
PAE/CE – State Programme of Action to Combat Desertification and Mitigating the Efects of Droughts
Subprogramme 1 - Natural Resource Management and Sustainable Production
Objective: to promotes interventions aimed to conservation, restoration and use of natural resources in order to reduce the impacts of human action in the process of desertification and encourage transition to ecological production to minimize the degrading action of the areas susceptible to desertification. FUNCEME - Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government - Brazil
PAE/CE – State Programme of Action to Combat Desertification and Mitigating the Efects of Droughts
Subprogramme 2 – Living in the Semiarid and Climate Change
Objective: to propose actions to enable the rural workers to adapt to climate change without loss in quality of life. FUNCEME - Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government - Brazil
PAE/CE – State Programme of Action to Combat Desertification and Mitigating the Efects of Droughts
Subprogramme 3 – Participative Management
Objective: to promote environmental, social and economic policies aimed at poverty reduction in line with the preservation and conservation of natural resources, adopting an institutional integration, dialogue and participation of society. FUNCEME - Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government - Brazil
PAE/CE – State Programme of Action to Combat Desertification and Mitigating the Efects of Droughts
Subprogramme 4 – Environmental Citizenship
Objective: to promote the collective consciousness about the issue of desertification and climate change enabling the formation and incorporation of new habits, attitudes and values toward ensuring the integrity of the environment as a basis for sustaining the quality of life. FUNCEME - Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government - Brazil
PRODHAM – Project of Hydro-Environmental Development
Recovery and preservation of natural resources
Creating favorable conditions for developing rural community in semi-arid region of Ceará FUNCEME - Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government - Brazil
PRODHAM – Project of Hydro-Environmental Development
It aims to develop, with pilot and experimental nature, coordinated actions and sustainable recovery and preservation of hydro-environmental projects in four watersheds located in semi-arid region of Ceará. FUNCEME - Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government - Brazil
PRODHAM – Project of Hydro-Environmental Development
Results (1999-2009)
PRODHAM builts: 3,332 successive dams of sediment containment 27 underground dams 470 cisternas
implanted: 47.6 ha of reforestation and restoration of mata ciliar 2.2 ha of dry farming 129,928 m of terracing contour 70,682 m of stone ridges contour 3,810 m of strings of vegetation and promoted the recovery of 5.3 ha FUNCEME - Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government - Brazil
São José Project Program to oppose rural poverty in Ceará
The São José Project was created in 1995 with the aim of improving the living conditions of poor families in rural areas of the state, raise the quality of life and increase the generation of employment and income of the beneficiary population. FUNCEME - Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government - Brazil
São José Project Program to oppose rural poverty in Ceará
The main actions developed by the Projeto São José are: rural electrification community systems of water supply agricultural mechanization rural housing in settlement areas productive projects
All these actions are coordinated by the partnership and include several Secretaries of Ceara State and their representatives, foremost among them the: Enterprise Technical Assistance and Rural Extension (Ematerce) Superintendent of Water Works (Sohidra) Company of Water and Sewage of the State of Ceará (Cagece) FUNCEME ‐ Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government ‐ Brazil
São José Project Program to Oppose Rural Poverty in Ceará Results
Since JAN/2007 to JUN/2011:
Actions Nº Families Investiment (R$) rural electrification 813 2,855,230.56 community systems of water supply 64,782 77,540,806.04 agricultural mechanization 32,418 41,405,090.27 rural housing in settlement areas 1,662 1,088,303.69 productive projects 9,827 15,166,629.44 FUNCEME - Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government - Brazil
Articulating public policy at different administrative levels
The Pacto das Águas was is a initiative of the Ceara State Legislative Assembly, which aims to draw a diagnosis and a strategic plan for managing the State Water Resources. It was concluded in 2009 with the publication of a diagnostic study (Current Scenario of Water Resources), strategic plan (Water Resources Strategic Plan of Ceará) and eleven Regional Watershed Notebooks. It was presented to society and has a workable plan agreed upon by the organs, institutions and civil society organizations.
The Pacto pela Convivência com o Semiárido aims to point out guidelines and bases for the formulation of a policy of coexistence with the semiarid, considering aspects: economic, environmental, cultural, social and scientific na technological. FUNCEME ‐ Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government ‐ Brazil
“Seguro Safra” Income Security to Farmers in case of Drought or Excess of Water
Established by Law No. 10420 of April 10, 2002; amended by Law 10,700 of July 9, 2003.
It is an action of is an initiative of the National Program for Strengthening of Family Farming (Pronaf) that aims to ensure an income for a period.
It is given to the farmers of the semiarid of Brazil who lost their crops due to drought or excess of water.
Crops Covered: beans, corn, rice, cassava and cotton. FUNCEME ‐ Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government ‐ Brazil
"Seguro Safra” Income Security to Farmers in case of Drought or Excess of Water
Seguro Safra serves farmers in the municipalities located in the semiarid regions of Brazil (Northeast, north of Espírito Santo, northern Minas Gerais, Jequitinhonha Valley, Valley of Mucuri)
To be attended, farmers must have income of up to 1.5 minimum wages by month, and cultivate rice, beans, cotton, cassava and /or corn, in areas from 0.6 to 10 ha. FUNCEME ‐ Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government ‐ Brazil
"Seguro Safra" Income Security to Farmers in case of Drought or Excess of Water
The composition of the Seguro Safra Funds
Annually, all (federal and state governments, municipalities and farmers) contribute to a fund that will be used to secure the resources needed to pay benefits in the municipalities that have drought or excess of water.
Federal Government
State Government Municipality “A” that suffered drought or Municipalities $ $ excess of water Farmers FUNCEME ‐ Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government ‐ Brazil
"Seguro Safra" Income Security to Farmers in case of Drought or Excess of Water
Steps of the Seguro Safra
Participation of the Accession of Accession of the farmers the State Municipalities Application
Selection In case of drought or Ratification Payment of the Benefits excess of water Accession FUNCEME ‐ Research Institute for Meteorology and Water Resources Secretariat of Science, Technology and Higher Educations Ceara State Government ‐ Brazil
"Seguro Safra" Income Security to Farmers in case of Drought or Excess of Water
Payment of Benefits in Ceara State (2006-2009)
2006 2007 2008 2009 Quantity of 7 124 26 135 municipalities Quantity of 11,338 159,415 68,103 219,413 farmers Values 6,235,900 83,994,900 35,611,400 120,677,150 (R$1,00) Obs.: rainy normal below normal above season quality normal normal