WATER IN CENTRAL ASIA By Zainiddin Karaev*

Shared water resources have caused serious disputes and tensions in Central Asia since the USSR's collapse. Management of these resources has been highly politicized. This article analyzes the foreign policies of four countries on this issue and implications that disputes have on them.

Central Asia is a dry and arid region he end of communism brought the T with immensely diverse topography ranging emergence of 15 new states, former Soviet from high mountains and glaciers to vast republics, which despite having their own and dry steppes and deserts. The region is character had long been isolated from the rich in water resources but more than 90 world and restrained from pursuing their percent are concentrated in the mountains interests. Among them are five Central of and . The region's Asian countries-- , Kyrgyzstan, two main rivers, Syr Darya and Amu Darya, Tajikistan, , and -- originate in these two countries, while which gained their independence in 1991. Uzbekistan, the single biggest consumer of Aside from the political changes water, and Turkmenistan, are located brought about by independence, these downstream. As much as 40 percent of the countries have sought to transform their region's water resources are concentrated economies from a centralized command solely in Kyrgyzstan.1 economy to a market-based one. In At the end of the nineteenth century, addition, they have become involved in as a result of rivalry between and disputes among themselves in part due to Britain, the region was divided into three their artificially created borders. Some of parts. The eastern part went to , the these disputes began during the years of southern part came under British Soviet rule. Aside from conflicts over domination, and the rest--which today resources, the ambitions of Russia, , constitutes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey, and China have turned Central Asia Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan-- into a highly conflict-prone region. was taken by Russia which, however, left This article explores the nature of the existing governmental and social system disputes and methods to solve them relating largely in place. In the early 1920s, to the joint use of water resources in Central following long resistance, the region was Asia for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, annexed to the USSR.2 Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. While Soviet rule dramatically changed the Turkmenistan also has some involvement in social structure, economy, and even its these issues they are of lesser importance environment, bringing about both for that country, which is focused on modernization and destruction. Many of the developing its gas sector and reducing its people living in the mountains were own high water use caused by dependence relocated to lower-lying areas to cultivate on cotton production. cotton. Large numbers of Slavic peoples came as immigrants from other parts of the GEOGRAPHICAL AND HISTORICAL USSR. The central government also BASIS OF CONFLICTS attacked the indigenous cultures, outlawing

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Islam. Forced collectivization, mandated cotton producers, with Uzbekistan alone social change, ecological shifts, and producing and exporting as much as four repression brought suffering and new million tons of cotton annually. However, problems.3 this development has had disastrous effects One of the issues that has left on the environment. The region's two major enduring legacies is the redrawing of the rivers--Amu Darya and Syr Darya--were boundaries between republics which carried almost fully diverted for cotton irrigation. over into the post-Soviet era. The new As a result the water level in the Aral Sea, borders did not respect any historical or which is fed by these two rivers, fell by national legacies, leaving huge minorities of seven meters in twenty years, from 1964 till one nation inside another republic and 1984. This worst man-made disaster in the creating complicated frontiers which world has also damaged the population's undermined political relations and made health. Infant mortality in surrounding areas economic development more difficult. has reached 110 deaths for every 1000 These boundary lines created births, one of the highest in the world.4 situations which today could become The Soviet regime built huge water sources of conflict. The Ferghana valley, reservoirs in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan the most fertile, densely populated area in primarily for the cotton production in the region, was divided among Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Several Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. It has been hydropower stations were also built. Power turned into a major cotton-producing valley grids in the region were united into a single during Soviet rule. In those days, the regional network. Through this network, production system ignored the republics' upstream countries exported electrical frontiers. For example, water reservoirs for power to downstream countries during the the irrigation of cotton in Uzbekistan were winter, and imported from them during the constructed in Kyrgyzstan, Kyrgyz cotton summer when water was drawn to cotton was ginned in Uzbekistan and the route fields. Coordination of the water flows to between them ran through Tajikistan. These the cotton fields during the hot season was arrangements have been disrupted since managed from Moscow, by the ministry of independence, effectively paralyzing the irrigation. whole valley, causing widespread poverty In the 1980s, Soviet planners and social discontent. developed another ambitious project to Some parts of Kyrgyzstan and divert Siberian rivers to the region in order Tajikistan are reachable only through the to provide even more water for the cotton territory of Uzbekistan. The northern parts industry. This project was not implemented of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are cut off due to warnings of its dangerous from their southern parts most of the year. environmental implications. But today some Since gaining independence, Uzbekistan are trying to revive this project. For has pursued a policy of isolation from its example, at a conference on the water neighbors. It has restricted the road shortage and Aral problem, a top transport going through its territory, Uzbekistan official urged close cooperation accusing neighboring countries of exporting with Russia to divert two Siberian rivers, extremism. the Irtish and Ob, to Central Asia.5 Rising water consumption began In the opening years of the twenty- when the region was turned into a huge first century, however, the region has been cotton plantation in the 1960s and the experiencing the worst drought in a century. 1970s. An impressive irrigation network, The water shortage has also brought canals, and reservoirs were built to serve declining cotton, rice, and other agricultural cotton production. As a result, the region production eroding living standards. Severe has become one of the world's biggest environmental crisis, combined with

64 Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 9, No. 1 (March, 2005) Water Diplomacy in Central Asia already widespread poverty and the region's into a battleground of the world's powers security tensions, make the region prone to for the control of oil resources, especially any uprising or long-term conflict. when coupled with internal problems that include disputed borders, rising poverty, POST-INDEPENDENCE CONFLICTS social discontent at the non-democratic By the end of 1980s, water regimes, and the emergence of militant distribution and border disputes led to open Islamist groups. Notable in this context was confrontations which were suppressed by the civil war in Tajikistan during the 1990s Moscow. But when the Soviet Union that involved both internal and foreign-- collapsed, water usage, which had particularly Russian--intervention. 7 previously been a domestic issue, suddenly Water is a key issue in the region. became a subject of international mediation. Ninety percent of the water resources are A zero-sum game developed over water, concentrated in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, and each of the now sovereign countries, while the main consumers--Uzbekistan and enshrined the concept of "sovereignty over Kazakhstan--can supply only 14 percent resources" in its national constitution. and 45 percent, respectively, of their water In 1991 all Central Asian countries needs. Uzbekistan alone consumes more gained their independence from the Soviet than half the region's water resources. As a Union though they were not well prepared result, though, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikstan for this step, especially given their tightly control the water needed by Uzbekistan and integrated economies and dependence on Kazakhstan. The upstream states view joint infrastructure and common resources. water as a commodity for trade and profit, Moreover, the vacuum left by the collapse especially since they are poorly endowed of the Soviet empire brought competition with other resources. Control over water is among other powers for influence in the also important for them as they need it to area. One of the new countries' first acts generate much of their own power needs.8 was the establishment of the Interstate These differences can often be Commission for Water Coordination, in settled through negotiation but the relative 1992. leverage of the two sides shifts during the The region is rich in oil, minerals, year. In summer, the downstream countries and other natural resources. Turkmenistan have less leverage given their high water and Kazakhstan, with their oil and gas needs, while in winter the consumer states fields, have attracted foreign investment. have the advantage because they can cut off Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have capitalized their coal and gas supplies or restrict on their cotton and mineral industries. transport on their roads. A large number of Kyrgyzstan has sought to develop its gold bilateral agreements have been signed to industry and hydropower production. In manage these issues. For example, between geopolitical terms, the region is at the 1997 and 2004, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan crossroads of several rival powers--Russia, alone signed ten agreements and held a China, Pakistan, Iran and India--all of large number of meetings. Uzbekistan's gas which have or are seeking regional and Kyrgyzstan's water are major domination. The has also bargaining chips in this relationship.9 In been extending its influence into the area, addition, Uzbekistan has some control over leading some forces in Russia to call for a the supply of water to southern parts of "more ambitious" policy to regain its role Kazakhstan which at times it has reduced, there.6 triggering angry protests by Kazakh In some ways, these shifts can peasants, as well as high-level political benefit the region, attracting and dispute between the two countries. investment while reducing their dependency The existence of border disputes on Russia. But they can also make the area intensifies these problems. This is

Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 9, No. 1 (March, 2005) 65 Zainiddin Karaev especially evident in the case of Uzbekistan, pressures also exist in these countries. which has border disputes with all countries Widespread poverty in rural areas has of the region. The most acute tensions exist encouraged militant and separatist groups. between Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan over The overpopulated, poverty-stricken, two enclaves that belong to the latter. cotton-producing valley, home to 20 Uzbekistan and Tajikistan also claim parts percent of the region's entire population, has of each other's territories. Numerous clashes been the scene of many violent incidents have occurred on the Tajik-Uzbek and since 1989.11 Kyrgyz-Uzbek borders, leading to the With independence, the downstream closing of frontiers and--especially by countries have undertaken a policy of Uzbekistan--laying of minefields.10 energy self-sufficiency and reduced their Despite the signing of many water dependency on imported hydropower from agreements, however, the results have been their neighbors. Upstream countries have unstable. Countries have broken their pursued a policy of developing and utilizing commitments at times when their leverage their hydropower potential which has was greater and they thus believed they significantly reduced the water flows to could obtain a better deal. Leaders are downstream countries. The urban under constant domestic pressure-- population of upstream countries is, to a especially from farmers--to improve the large extent, dependent on the gas and coal terms of these arrangements. This does not supply from downstream countries, apply only to the upstream countries but especially during winter. The downstream also to the downstream ones. countries thus want water for cotton and can International factors also change the use their energy supplies to bargain for it; relative leverage of these states. The the upstream countries can bargain with upstream countries are allies of Russia, their water but their energy strategy while downstream countries pursue a policy requires retaining more of it.12 of distancing themselves from Russia and Thus, the downstream and upstream its influence. Although the link between the countries face different domestic pressures. geopolitical situation of one or more of the Their interests are often diametrically countries, and water conflicts is not direct, opposed to each other and offer little Russian influence certainly gives an flexibility in negotiating the terms of joint additional leverage to upstream countries. use of water resources.13 Uzbekistan could Growing concerns over the falling reduce its water needs by shifting away level of water in the Aral Sea and its from cotton. However, cotton is such a big disastrous consequences have added asset to generate revenue and foreign another factor. International agencies, exchange that the government is unwilling including the World Bank, the United to restructure its agriculture. Any fall in Nations (UN) and the Organization of cotton income--which is heavily dependent Security and Cooperation in Europe on water supplies--would only further (OSCE) have offered assistance while also impoverish a rural population already in pressuring countries to regulate the water difficult straits. flow in order to prevent the Aral Sea from In some ways, though, the upstream drying up even more. Thus, the situation is countries are even worse off. They are extremely complex. poorer, less powerful, and have few In the downstream countries of resources to develop. Water is one of the Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, especially in few assets Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan the latter, the political leadership is heavily possess. Yet, if they face retaliatory dependent on the cotton industry, the single cutbacks in gas supplies, their urban biggest sector and consumer of water. populations put pressure on the Kazakhstan is an exporter of wheat. Other governments for a more flexible water

66 Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 9, No. 1 (March, 2005) Water Diplomacy in Central Asia strategy. Giving up more water, however, Not long before the negotiations undercuts their hydroelectric production started, in February 1998, Uzbekistan cut which only makes them more vulnerable to off gas supplies to both water-rich energy blackmail from their downstream countries--Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. This neighbors. action also aroused anger in those two Given all these factors, it is not states, with the Kyrgyz government using surprising that bilateral and multilateral especially strong rhetoric in denouncing it. water arrangements are constantly being The Uzbek side answered with similarly renegotiated, a factor which only increases tough words. Apparently, aside from the the importance, controversy and tension water itself, the Uzbek government was also around this resource's distribution. As one trying to make gains on territorial disputes expert summarizes the situation: with its neighbors.15 Threatening to use water as a weapon, The conflict of interest over water Kyrgyzstan suggested that it might release resources between the upstream and the so much water from its Toktogul reservoir downstream states is now addressed in as to destroy large cotton fields. Both an ad hoc manner, through annual Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan also announced bilateral negotiations involving that they would raise the production of compensations of the upstream states, hydropower--i.e., using more water--to in the form of coal, natural gas or reduce the need to import Uzbek gas. Tense electricity supplies by the downstream relations marked the beginning of states. However, the implementation of negotiations.16 these bilateral agreements is difficult, if A question of particular importance is not impossible…14 why Tajikistan was absent from the negotiations and agreement when a An agreement on the joint use of water significant part of water resources were and energy resources was reached on March under its control. Two reasons stand out: 17, 1998 in Bishkek between three Uzbekistan believed that Tajikistan would countries--Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and take a tough line in the negotiating process Uzbekistan. Three months later Tajikistan but would comply with an agreement under also joined the agreement. The agreement pressure even if one was reached without its was primarily driven by the biggest direct participation. But when Uzbekistan consumer of water--Uzbekistan. Although tried to implement this strategy by Tajikistan controls a significant part of restricting Tajikistan's access to roads and water resources, it was not invited. The reducing its gas supply, Tajikistan, situation surrounding those negotiations and emboldened by Russia's backing and the resulting agreement provides an wishing to develop its own hydropower interesting case study on these matters. production, reduced the flow of water to In 1997 tensions between Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan during the hot season. As a and Uzbekistan escalated, involving a result, Tajikistan was invited in the summer military build-up by Uzbekistan across from of 1998 to join the agreement. the water reservoir located close to its It can be argued that the upstream border on the territory of Kyrgyzstan. This countries have comparatively less leverage move raised concerns and anger in than the downstream countries. They have Kyrgyzstan. The Kyrgyz government fewer resources and are dependent on adopted a resolution declaring water as a downstream countries for their access to the tradable commodity, and codifying its right world markets. Therefore, they cannot to use it for profit. It threatened to sell water afford to build the hydroelectric stations to China if Uzbekistan failed to pay for it. that would make them more independent of the downstream states' energy supplies.

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When upstream countries break agreements their leverages were no longer greater than by withholding water, they derive no those of upstream countries. The upstream immediate benefit but suffer from a loss of countries used harsh rhetoric and the threat road access and energy imports. But if to use water as leverage. Growing Russian downstream states argue that their water influence enabled upstream countries to supply is insufficient and try to increase it "act more bravely." On the other hand, by violating agreements, those regimes agreement is possible only when both sides actually increase their popularity since they can gain from an agreement. Energy are seen as battling against unacceptable supplies and access to infrastructure-- conditions. Moreover, the military power of leverages of downstream countries-- Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan is far greater overlapped with the use of water as a than that of their upstream neighbors, political too and the geopolitical balance, letting them make credible threats of using which favor upstream countries. force if they are not satisfied by water deals. However, although an agreement was Downstream countries also have more reached, by the summer it had already been leverage during the winter, when their subverted. Before Tajikistan was invited to upstream neighbors are dependent on them join the agreement, it restricted the water for energy supply and roads. Upstream flow to Uzbekistan, damaging more than countries in turn, have the advantage during 100,000 hectares of cotton. This time the hot season, when crops in their downstream countries used high-level water downstream neighbors require more water. diplomacy instead of rhetoric and threat; a Thus, the agreement was reached when change in the leverage of Tajikistan downstream countries perceived that occurred. Kyrgystan did indeed--as its regime had As this analysis has shown, water originally assumed--have the advantage represents a major source of conflict in over Tajikistan. Therefore, downstream Central Asia. Tensions have been especially countries were more flexible in their high over the last three years as the region negotiations with Kyrgyzstan. They has experienced the worst drought in over a promised Kyrgyzstan financial century. Political games, unilateral bellicose contributions toward maintaining water actions by downstream countries, and facilities and the delivery of gas and coal "retaliations" by upstream countries, have without delay or stoppages. marked the foreign policies of each country Being an ally of Russia certainly gives involved in the conflict. each of the upstream countries additional On the other hand, agreements have leverage in negotiations and puts pressure been reached, usually under the heavy on downstream countries. Pressure from pressure of domestic and international international organizations on all countries factors, including geo-economic and to save the Aral Sea, in turn, gives geopolitical factors. However, seasonal additional leverage to downstream variations and the complex nature of countries. International organizations domestic politics and inter-state relations provide financial assistance to these regarding water then leads to the countries for producing alternative crops breakdown of those agreements. which require less water while pressuring upstream countries to discharge more water *Zainiddin Karaev is a Ph.D. candidate in in order to ensure a sufficient level in the the Political Science department of the sea. Central European University, Budapest. His research interests are political economy of CONCLUSION development in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan To summarize, negotiations only began in the post-communist period, politics of when downstream countries realized that

68 Middle East Review of International Affairs, Vol. 9, No. 1 (March, 2005) Water Diplomacy in Central Asia water resources management in Central Asia. available online at: http://www.eurasianet.org. 10 NOTES Bruce Pannier, "Central Asia: Border Dispute Between Uzbekistan and 1 Michael H. Glantz and Iwao Kobori, Kyrgyzstan Risks Triggering Conflict," Central Eurasian Water Crisis: Caspian, RFE/RL, March 8, 1999, Aral, and Dead Seas (The http://www.rferl.org. University, New York, 1998), p 19. 11 Paul Goble and Bruce Pannier, "A 2 Gregory Gleason, "Independence and Watershed in Central Asia," Radio Free Decolonization in Central Asia," Asian Europe – Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), 28 July Perspective, Vol. 21, No. 2, 1997, pp. 223- 1997, http://www.rferl.org. 246. 12 Arslan Koichiev "Water Games Could 3 Barnet Rubin, "Russian Hegemony and Leave Central Asia High and Dry This State Breakdown in the Periphery: Causes Summer," Eurasia News, March 2001. and Consequences of the Civil War in 13 This argument is borrowed from: Robert Tajikistan," in and Jack D. Putnam, "Diplomacy and Domestic Snyder (eds.)., Post-Soviet Political Order Politics: the Logic of Two-Level Games," (, New York: ), pp. 128- in Peter Evans et.al., Double-Edged 161. Diplomacy, University of California Press, 4 Glantz and Kobori, Central Eurasian Berkeley, Los Angeles and London, 1993, Water Crisis, pp. 23-4. pp. 432-434. 5 "Uzbekistan proposes to divert Siberian 14 Iskandar Abdullaev, "Preventing rivers to Central Asia," Interfax News Conflicts through Water Management in Agency, April 10, 2002. Central Asia," Transition Newsletter, June 6 Ian Traynor, "Russia edgy at spread of US 2001. bases in its backyard," The Guardian, 15 Roland Eggleston, "OSCE Seeks January 10, 2002; Also see: "Ex-Soviet Agreement on Central Asian Water," Asian Republics Are Now Courted by the Eurasia News, June 2000; Also see: U.S.," The New York Times, October 10, "Kazakhstan: World Bank Help for Aral 2001. Sea," Eurasia News, February 2002. 7 Barnett Rubin, "Russian Hegemony and 16 Bea Hogan, "Decreased Water Flow State Breakdown in the Periphery: Causes Threatens Cotton Crop, Peace in Region," and Consequences of the Civil War in Eurasia News, August 2000. Tajikistan," (paper prepared for Carnegie Project on Political Order ,Conflict and Nationalism in the Former Soviet Union, 1995). See also: Kristine Barseghyan and Zainiddin Karaev, "Playing Cat-and-Mouse: Conflict and Third-Party Mediation in Post- Soviet Space," The Online Journal of Peace and Conflict Resolution, (Issue 6.1, Fall 2004). 8 David Smith, "Environmental Security and Shared Water Resources in Post-Soviet Central Asia," Post-Soviet Geography, 36(9), 1995, pp. 565-586. 9 Bea Hogan, "Central Asia States Wrangle over Water," Eurasia News, April 2000,

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